The Coming Copper Crisis: An Important Role For Deep-Sea Mineral Resources In Fulfilling Japan?s Demand

Manganese nodules, seafloor massive sulfides, and cobalt-rich manganese crusts in deep-sea areas have been considered as future metal sources (Mero, 1965; Halbach, 1982; Lenoble, 2000). Manganese nodules were the first recognized deep-sea mineral resource and many efforts concentrated on the R&D of mining systems (Welling, 1981; Herrouin et al., 1989; Yamada and Yamazaki, 1998) and assessment of environmental impacts (Burns et al., 1980; Foell et al., 1990; Yamazaki and Kajitani, 1999). No mining venture, however, has been active for this potential resource. The reason is that the rate of world economic growth has been slower than anticipated in 1960s. During the 10 year period of 1994-2003 (Fig. 1), on the other hand, there was about a 33% increase in the world copper demand. Of that increase, about 60% was consumed by China. Most of China?s increased copper demand took place over the final 4-5 years of that period. The growth is expected to continue for several years, and in 10 years or sooner the same situation is expected for India. Copper is the third metal in global demand, but its small abundance in the Earth?s crust is not well recognized (Table 1). From the production rate and the abundance, a copper shortage, or crisis, has a high probability than the other metals. Japan has no domestic copper resources and needs a counter measure for this potential coming copper shortage. Fortunately, Japan has a manganese nodule mining claim in the Clarion-Clipperton nodule field, Kuroko-type massive seafloor sulfide deposits in the Okinawa Trough and Izu-Ogasawara areas, and cobalt-rich manganese crusts around Okinotori-Shima and Marcus Islands. We need to re-evaluate their potential as copper resources and to realize their development.