The Diffusion Of Fuel Cell Vehicles And Its Impact On The Demand For Platinum Group Metals: Research Framework And Initial Results

A fuel cell is an electrochemical engine that converts the chemical energy of a fuel, such as hydrogen, and an oxidant, such as oxygen, directly into electricity. The emerging fuel cell industry may represent a major opportunity for the global platinum mining industry. This is because low temperature fuel cell systems use platinum group metals as catalysts. Fuel cell vehicles may become the most important driver of future platinum demand within years of their commercialization. A great number of factors impact on and drive the diffusion of fuel cell vehicle innovation. Such drivers range from energy security to environmental concerns and the technological development of fuel cells and systems. Such factors and drivers of fuel cell vehicle diffusion are combined with the generic ?body of knowledge? on ?technology forecasting? and ?diffusion of innovation? to design a framework that provides a holistic approach to the analysis of this complex enterprise. An attempt is made in this paper to address the following questions: Which types of fuel cells require platinum group metals? Which types of fuel cells will achieve dominant design status? Will fuel cell vehicles diffuse successfully? How big will the impact of successful fuel cell vehicle diffusion be on future platinum demand? How well do fuel cell vehicles compete with incumbent technologies such as spark-ignited and compression-ignited internal combustion engine-driven vehicles? How soon will oil depletion start to drive the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles? How important is hydrogen as a fuel? What impact does the inadequate hydrogen fuelling infrastructure have on fuel cell vehicle diffusion? The paper contains some initial results of a research project that has the aim of producing a schedule of future platinum demand generated from fuel cell vehicles. Keywords: diffusion of fuel cell vehicles, technology forecasting, platinum demand forecasting.