The Draft GBN Global Scenarios And The Forces Driving Them

This paper presents GBN's "Global Scenarios" for the first decade of the 21st century. We describe a set of key scenario actors and develop 6 driving forces in demography, technology, climate change, macroeconomic change, globalization, and geopolitics. We argue that a set of majorchallenges to world systems of commerce and politics will coalesce in the next several years. We develop four scenarios which differ according to how these challenges are handled, and which scenario actors play the key roles in managing the transition.