The Mystery Of The Missing Millions

The southern African region has a high concentration of mineral resources and supplies much of the world?s platinum demand. As a result, the international community watches South Africa to understand the impact of supply on global markets. An analysis of supply certainty and risk plays a key role in the future of growing demand in various sectors. The southern African platinum industry experienced substantial growth in the early part of the 21st century, resulting in bullish forecasts for growth during the period of 2000?2006. However, southern African platinum producers saw a significant drop in production over the following three years as a result of many dynamic factors in operations and the global economy. Between 2006 and 2009 there was a million-ounce shortfall between forecast and actual production. This was raised as a concern at the Fourth International Platinum Conference in 2010 by Stephen Forrest during his keynote address, specifically regarding the lack of understanding in the market of the causes of this shortfall and any action that was being taken to address them. This paper reviews publicly available information in the media and corporate reports and communications for the period January 2006 to December 2009. In addition, several interviews were held with key stakeholders in the industry to provide further perspective. The paper then highlights the main reasons that are reported to have affected the loss in production over the period and discusses the possible implications of the information that the mining industry does and does not disclose regarding platinum supply.