The National Economy In The Third Quarter

The U.S. economy continued to grow moderately in the third quarter, but at a slightly higher rate than in the previous quarter. According to the Department of Commerce's preliminary estimate, real gross national product (GNP) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.3% during the third quarter of 1985, compared with a revised 1.9% for the second quarter and 1.6% for the third quarter of 1984 (table 1). Civilian unemployment dropped from the constant 7.3% rate between February and July to 7.0% in August and 7.1% in September. Employment on nonagricultural payrolls continued to increase (table 2), resulting in a continued rise in personal income, which in turn supported growing consumer purchases. Although purchases of services continued to provide the underlying foundation for the economic growth, the manufacturing sector received additional stimulus from significant increases in consumer purchases of durable goods, particularly automobiles. The increased demand for durable goods resulted in significantly higher industrial production for August and September, compared with levels attained previously this year (table 3). Capacity utilization increased to 80.5% in August but returned to 80.2% in September, matching the 1985 low previously reached in July (table 4). The real net export deficit grew only $0.2 billion in the third quarter; at $34.0 billion, however, it continued to exert a negative influence on the economy. On September 22, in an effort to reduce the deficit and make U.S. goods more competitive on world markets, the U.S. Government agreed to cooperate with the Governments of France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom in attempting to lower the-value of the dollar in relation to other world currencies. Low inventories, rising factory orders and construction spending, the possibility of a lower U.S. dollar, and aggressive automobile production plans announced by domestic producers for the fourth quarter indicate the potential for an increase in manufacturing activity in the United States.