Uncertainty and Risk in Mineral Valuation - A User's Perspective

The words ""Uncertainty"" and ""Risk"" pervade every discussion about mining exploration and investment. Perhaps these terms are subjectively understood by industry professionals, but objective portrayal of these concepts outside the industry is a woefully undeveloped science. This paper addresses current industry understanding and practice regarding quantitative risk assessment techniques, and provides examples of the application of three of these techniques. Probabilistic techniques for financial risk assessment are valuable adjuncts to conventional financial analysis, and address a range of issues not assessable by any other means. The value of whole-of-project probabilistic risk assessment is currently debatable for decision-making purposes, but is seen as important as a mechanism to focus attention to the critical issues that ultimately impact on project success. The dissection of project capital into risk and non-risk components provides valuable insights into risk characteristics not readily quantifiable in any other way. This technique also provides a framework for more objective ""what if?"" scenario evaluation and for the capital structure of resource projects. Finally, mechanisms for the valuation of undeveloped reserves are examined, and guidelines suggested. The importance of reliability in production cost estimates is highlighted and the impact of early development on reserve valuations is discussed. The importance of economics throughout all stages of the evaluation process is fundamental.