Uncertainty Estimates for Geometallurgical Models

Often geometallurgical models are prepared at various project stages from very few data and are assumed to be representative of very large tonnages. These may include recovery models; crushing and grinding parameters and models; models of concentrate grades; models of acid consumption; etc. These models commonly do not carry a measure of uncertainty or variability, and are taken at face value at the time of design and planning. This paper proposes a proactive approach to modelling variability, providing uncertainty estimates and thus allowing for risk analysis and mitigation of geometallurgical models. The variability model is built up by understanding the limitations of the pillars of a geometallurgical model: data uncertainty; geologic model uncertainty; domain definition uncertainty; and parameter estimation uncertainty. Of these factors, typically domain definition is the most significant contributor to geometallurgical model variability. First, the fundamental supports for these models are briefly discussed, with domain definition emphasized. Second, two methods for uncertainty modelling are proposed. The first, more applicable to conceptual or early-stage projects, is a simpler and more expedient alternative that provides initial assessments of variability. This is intended to aid management in decision-making related to budgeting, including further sampling and testing. The second, a block-by-block approach that allows a detailed assessment of risk for specific designs and mine plans, thus providing further opportunities for mitigation. In the example provided, emphasis is placed in communicating this variability to both management and technical personnel in the form of “measured-indicated-inferred” indicators and also block-by-block confidence intervals.