Understanding Cyclical and Secular Trends in Metal Prices

Over the past several years, copper prices have surged from under a dollar to over three dollars a pound. However, the long-run trend in real copper prices since at least the early 1970s has been sharply downward. While many now contend that the long-run trend in real copper prices is now upward, the result of structural changes in this market, others are sceptical. Nor is copper unique; the prices for a number of other metals, including aluminium, iron ore, lead, nickel and zinc, have followed similar patterns. This paper examines the forces behind short-run and long-run trends in metal prices. It first focuses on the short run, where it argues that shifts in demand are largely behind changes in prices. It then turns to the long run, where it concludes that production costs and supply largely govern price trends. Finally, it explores several implications of these findings, including those for diversification and market risk, for forecasting mineral prices, for assessing the growth of metal demand in China and elsewhere on metal prices, and for changes in the long-run price trends.