Unlocking resource confidence in coal through use of conditional simulation

Conditional simulation (CS) has been extensively used in metal industry to assess uncertainty of geo metallurgical variables to build robust distributions around grade tonnages across different time horizons. Coal’s entry to nonlinear stochastic modelling is relatively new and this paper summarises the work done at BHP to enable its practical usage from production time frames to Life of Asset planning. CS in coal using Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) is used to understand resource confidence around specific variables within pre-defined boundaries of spatially continuous domains for each coal seam. The variation between simulations for a given parameter reflects uncertainty. This paper demonstrates the use of CS to profile resource based upon agreed seam/parameter uncertainty thresholds which affect planning, forecasting, extraction and inform identification of key production risks and defining mitigation strategies. The end goal is to de-risk long-term plans by optimising infill data collection and improve stability in short-term planning through increased understanding of confidences locally rather than at global resource definition stages. The paper also briefly discusses the use of automated workflows and systems to minimise the time spent on the process to enable use in decision-making.