World Copper Demand in 2050

For the mineral industry, sustainability seems to mean socially positive and ecologically neutral mineral extraction. Mines are financed and developed in response to demand for their products. The purpose of my paper is to indicate the potential dimension of demand. As part of an unrelated study which I undertook ten years ago, it became apparent that there is a persistent relationship within communities between infant mortality and mineral use; greater mineral use corresponds to a lower rate of infant mortality. This comes as no surprise; sufficient potable water, a reliable supply of food, hygienic waste disposal, hot water and refrigeration all improve the chances of survival of the more vulnerable members of any community. The predictable provision of these facilities requires the application of minerals. This relationship is supported by a table (Appendix 1) included in the UNICEF publication, æThe State of the WorldÆs Children 2001Æ. This table lists regional infant mortality rate (IMR) statistics from around the world, including a listing for æindustrialised countriesÆ. Such countries experience an IMR lower by an order of magnitude than any other region. æIndustrialisedÆ inevitably involves the use of metallic and energy minerals. The principal use of copper is in the generation and distribution of power; it is fundamental to any industrialisation. IMR is a valuable connection because it quantifies caring for the young, a vital strategic driver of human behaviour independent of time, place, fashion or economic circumstances. I have tabulated the population, IMR and the copper demand per head of population for countries containing over 99 per cent of the population of the world in the years 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1989, and 1999. These countries have been consolidated into four groups, Very High, High, Medium and Low rates of infant mortality (UNICEF has used this terminology; the Low group includes all the æindustrialised countriesÆ). The purpose of this consolidation was to reduce the volume of work, to dampen out the impact of regional wars and business cycles, and to dampen out the variable quality of information. Based on the pattern of the copper demand, population and IMR over the last 50 years, I have projected the likely copper demand in 50 years time. A dominant feature of my tabulation is the increase per decade in copper use per head and a corresponding reduction of the IMR. The word æuseÆ is preferred to æconsumptionÆ because it is estimated that over 80 per cent of all the copper ever mined is still in circulation There are two major influences at work; one is the absolute increase in population (UN estimates for 2050 are updated periodically) and the second is the movement of countries into a higher pattern of use and lower IMR. For example the Medium group in 1989 had an infant mortality rate approximating that of the Low group in 1960. With the population of the Medium group (which includes Russia and China) forecast to reach 2.6 billion in 2050, the world copper demand in that year will be significantly greater than the present figure. Nevertheless it will not be as great relatively as the increase of over 300 per cent in the last 50 years.