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By S. R. Rao

Interaction of potassium amyl xanthate with pyrrhotite has been studied thermochemically. Heats of adsorption of xanthate on unactivated mineral and the mineral activated with cupric ions have been compared with heats of reactions between potassium amyl xanthate and ferrous and cupric salts. It is shown that xanthate is consumed by stoichiometric exchange with anions present at the mineral surface. The floatability of the unactivated mineral is poor since xanthate is precipitated in bulk without creating a hydrophobic surface on the mineral. At the activated mineral surface, xanthate is adsorbed in certain isolated patches (active spots) and thereby creates a hydrophobic surface. The hydrophobicity of the mineral is greatly improved by lowering the pH to 4.5.

Jan 1, 1972

By R. L. Grayson, Y. J. Wang

This paper presents an application of goal programming (GP) to major mining machinery purchases based on historical operating data on mechanical downtime and production. The GP technique, an extension of integer programming, is used to maximize an objective function comprised of deviations away from management-preferred financial goals. Different capital budgeting techniques are used to evaluate capital proposals, and the results of these analyses are combined and weighted in a maximization of profits objective function. The GP method gives an optimal solution to a multiple goal problem. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the effect of a variable production improvement condition or a variable budget control con¬dition on proposal selection.

Jan 1, 1984

US 4,185,078-In the recovery of rhenium values from an aqueous sodium molybdate solution contained in the hydrometallurgical processing of roasted molybdenite, improved results are realized by using a described extractant consisting of a quaternary ammonium compound and benzene or other highly aromatic solvent which dissolves a quaternary ammonium-rhenium complex Essentially all rhenium is recovered from the solution and the extractant can be regenerated and recycled. This patent is a continuation-in-part of US Patent No. 4,049,771, dated Sept. 20, 1977. L R. Quatrini and M.B MacInnis, assigned to GTE Sylvania Inc. Jan 22, 1980. 6 pp (423-49). Flied. 7-19-78 (926,167).

Jan 1, 1982

By I. Iwasaki, K. Adam

During wet grinding the electrochemical interactions between grinding media and pyrrhotite not only accelerate media wear but also adversely affect the suede mineral's flotation response. A possible remedy of the adverse effects on floatability by applying electric potentials to grinding media was examined. Flotation tests, Auger electron spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy were used to study pyrrhotite surface properties. Although anodic polarization of the steels increased metal loss by corrosion, pyrrhotite flotation recovery was increased. In the case of cathodic polarization, flotation recovery improved somewhat in a narrow range of overpotentials. At higher cathodic overpotentials, however, mineral floatability was progressively lowered although the corrosive wear of grinding media might be reduced.

Jan 1, 1985

By K. E. Merklin, F. D. DeVaney

Students of the modern blast furnace seem unanimously agreed that they are observing a major revolution in practice. Rather than changing construction and operation of the furnaces, most of the great advances now under way deal with the raw materials feed. Prepared burdens have gained increasing significance during recent years. Sizing, concentration, and agglomeration have all become bywords to greater production and reduced operating costs. The remarkable results with test furnaces in which self-fluxing sinter makes up part or all of the ore charge foretell even greater improvements. Other investigators have reported many of these advances, and it is enough to predict here that more and more operators will turn to the use of self-fluxing sinter.

Jan 3, 1960

By J. Chipman, N. J. Grant, J. C. Fulton

This paper contains data on the distribution of silicon between liquid iron-silicon-carbon alloys saturated with respect to graphite and CaO-SiO2-Al2O3 slags under 1 atm of CO at 1600°C. The ranges of slag compositions studied were extended from the dicalcium silicate saturated liquidus composition up to silica concentrations at which Sic appeared as a stable phase. IN blast furnace operation it is not to be expected that slag and metal reach equilibrium with one another. Nevertheless, the silicon content of the metal varies with slag composition and with temperature in a manner which would be predicted from equilibrium considerations. Similarly, the distribution of sulphur between slag and metal does not attain an equilibrium state, yet the influence of slag composition is strongly analogous to its effect on the distribution equilibrium. The desulphurizing power of metallurgical slags has been shown to be highly dependent upon the FeO content of the slag. Moreover, the rate of removal of sulphur from slags is influenced by the oxygen potential of the slag-metal system. Thus it was shown by Grant, Kalling, and Chipman1 that the presence of MnO in slags which are low in FeO causes a marked slowing down of the transfer of sulphur from metal to slag. This led to the hypothesis that the slow removal of sulphur by blast furnace slags of more acid composition might be due in part to the effect of SiO2 on the oxygen potential of the system. This was verified in the work of Grant, Troili, and Chipman,' who found that the desulphurizing power of the more acid blast furnace slags could be markedly improved by an increase in the silicon content of the underlying metal. Their explanation of this improvement was that the higher silicon content of the metal decreased the rate of transfer of more silicon and, along with it, of oxygen from the slag to the metal. The slowness of the transfer of sulphur from metal to slag was the result of the slow reduction of SiO2 from slag to metal. Attempts to study the rate of sulphur removal had in the past resulted in very slow rates corresponding to the rates of silica reduction. It has become evident on the basis of these studies that further experimental studies on the rate of removal of sulphur must take these factors into consideration if there is to be a clear understanding of the rate of sulphur transfer under conditions simulating those existing in the blast furnace. It will be necessary, at least in a part of such study, to employ combinations of slag and metal in which the disturbing effect of silica reduction has been eliminated; in other words, to employ slag-metal combinations which are already in equilibrium with respect to the transfer of silicon. In preparation for such studies of desulphuriza-tion, a preliminary program of research on the distribution of silicon between slag and metal has been undertaken. This will ultimately include a comprehensive survey of the effects of temperature and slag composition on the equilibrium distribution of silicon between slag and metal. The present paper is a report on experimental methods employed and on

Jan 1, 1954

By Stephen Krickovic

THERE is today no proven continuous mining machine that can be used under all the varying conditions found in most bituminous coal mines. During the last five years, however, both the machines and methods of using them have been improved. Coal operators can now exercise a fair degree of selectivity, except those who must struggle with thick and hard partings and operate in seams less than 40 in. thick. It must be realized, then, that more than one type of continuous miner may be used advantageously in the same coal mine. Although this appears to violate the standardization generally sought after, the gain can more than offset added maintenance and, to a lesser degree, operating problems.

Jan 12, 1957

By AIME AIME

The 102d meeting of the Institute was held at the Institute headquarters in the Engineering Societies Building, New York, N. Y., on Feb. 19, 20 and 21, 1912. A Bureau of Information, in charge. of Mr. George Buckman, was maintained during the meeting. The proceedings opened with an informal social meeting on Monday evening, Feb. 19, in Assembly-Room No. 1, on the

Mar 1, 1912

By Edward C. J. Urban

The nature of certain pernicious dusts commonly encountered in the removal of iron ore from the underground mines of the Lake Superior district is recognized, and appropriate measures for the protection of individuals subjected to these dusts have been applied in most mines for more than 10 years. Undoubtedly the principal concern has been demanded by dusts that contain as a constituent silicon dioxide in its free or uncombined state, the mineral we all know as quartz or chert. Investigators1 agree that among the factors that determine injurious exposure are: the composition of the dust, the concentration suspended at the breathing level and the duration of the exposure. We have on hand data that describe the experience of several underground iron-ore mines in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Wisconsin in regard to these factors, which in a large measure also reflect the general experience of the other mines of the area. We believe that a discussion of these data will indicate the effectiveness of the dust-control methods that have been considered good practice and that have been employed over a long period of time. A silicosis-prevention program was ini- tiated by the iron mines of the Upper Peninsula in 1934 and records of mine dustiness are available from that date to the present time. For dust conditions previous to 1934 the results of observations conducted in other industries can be utilized together with local information pertaining to the development and initial application of rock-drilling equipment. Development of Rock DriI,I.s Thc earliest percussion rock drill that later had any industrial use was patented in this country in 1851.2 This machine was later modified and improved in many respects but its Piston-Type design remained standard for drilling equipment in most mines for the next 63 years.3 The piston drill was operated either by air or by steam. It employed a solid drill steel, fastened directly to the reciprocating piston. The drilling was done dry except in holes directed at an angle below the horizontal. For these water was manually injected into the hole and the pumping action of the rod expelled the sludge. The dry cuttings from drillings inclined above the horizontal fell from the hole by their own weight. A development of major importance from the standpoint of dust generation and control occurred with the invention by J. G. Leyner of a hammer-type rock drill that embodied the essential feature of a drill steel with a hollow core. His patent was secured in 1897. The machine was a radical departure in drilling method. The steel was held loosely in a chuck while

Jan 1, 1949

By Edward C. J. Urban

THE nature of certain pernicious dusts commonly encountered in the removal of iron ore from the underground mines of the Lake Superior district is recognized, and appropriate measures for the protection of individuals subjected to these dusts have been applied in most mines for more than to years. Undoubtedly the principal concern has been demanded by dusts that contain as a constituent silicon dioxide in its free or uncombined state, the mineral we all know as quartz or chert. Investigators1 agree that among the factors that determine injurious exposure are: the composition of the dust, the concentration suspended at the breathing level and the duration of the exposure. We have on hand data that describe the experience of several underground iron-ore mines in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Wisconsin in regard to these factors, which in a large measure also reflect the general experience of the other mines of the area. We believe that a discussion of these data will indicate the effectiveness of the dust-control methods that have been considered good practice and that have been employed over a long period of time. A silicosis-prevention program was ini¬tiated by the iron mines of the Upper Peninsula in 1934 and records of mine dustiness are available from that date to the present time. For dust conditions previous to 1934 the results of observations conducted in other industries can be utilized together with local information pertaining to the development and initial application of rock-drilling equipment. DEVELOPMENT OF ROCK DRILLS The earliest percussion rock drill that later had any industrial use was patented in this country in 1851.2 This machine was later modified and improved in many respects but its piston-type design remained standard for drilling equipment in most mines for the next 63 years.3 The piston drill was operated either by air or by steam. It employed a solid drill steel, fastened directly to the reciprocating piston. The drilling was done dry except in holes directed at an angle below the horizontal. For these water was manually injected into the hole and the pumping action of the rod expelled the sludge. The dry cuttings from drillings inclined above the horizontal fell from the hole by their own weight. A development of major importance from the standpoint of dust generation and control occurred with the invention by J. G. Leyner of a hammer-type rock drill that embodied the essential feature of a drill steel with a hollow core. His patent was secured in 1897. The machine was a radical departure in drilling method. The steel was held loosely in a chuck while

Jan 1, 1947

By AIME AIME

MILLING called for four sessions and a luncheon and covered broad ranges from speculative theory to basic practice, and from coal to gold. An attractive and profitable feature was the "get-together" of "coal preparers" and "ore dressers" for mutual discussion of their common problems. The first event was the Milling Luncheon in the Engi¬neers' Club on Monday. A concentrated group of high¬grade appeared and many matters were discussed, but only two called for official action: The meeting unanimously recommended the use of the Tyler standard sieve scale as against any new scale, and also the adoption of micron designation for fine particles in place of decimals of an inch or millimeter, or theoretical mesh size. The real sessions began on Monday afternoon with a menu of Mineral Physics for the ore dresser, metallurgist, geologist, physicist, et al. Four papers by the staff of the U. S. Bureau of Mines dealt with the chemical and physical aspects of mineral structure as revealed by the first two years of research to date. A fifth paper by Dr. M. J. Buerger correlated to the foregoing the knowledge of "The Lineage Structure of Crystals" and finally a sixth paper was a progress report of further developments of the last year in explosive shattering of minerals by the U. S. Bureau of Mines.

Jan 1, 1933

AUGUST began with a reminder that warfare was still in progress in the world, in that the Greeks, still at war with Turkey, threatened Constantinople in spite of the small British and French forces of occupation and opened a vista of international dangers. There was in this, moreover, a recollection that religious questions in India had prevented the British from permitting a real settlement of the Turkish question, wherein the absence of Russia as a great power is missed. Civil warfare also continued in Ireland and China. Even in the military way the world is far from being at peace. Bloody fighting between the Fascisti (anti-communists) and the com-munists in Italy led to several provinces being put under martial law, but after a while these disturbances were quelled. In the latter part of the month the assassination of Michael Collins in Ireland produced a great shock. From China, however, there came rather favorable news, indicating the early reintegration of that country, which sooner or later ought to play an important part in world affairs. Economically, instead of there being any improve-ment, there grew a clearer perception of how bad things really are. Italian politics were in chaos through inability to find anyone to accept the premiership and assume the all but hopeless task of averting national bankruptcy. The French, too, began to see their own position in true colors, and especially to see how in reconstruction they had incurred debts on the strength of what they hoped to collect from Germany, with at last the understanding that the Germans could not pay and that France herself was thereby put in a desper-ate economic position. As for the Germans, them-selves their Reichsbank defaulted on ordinary bills early in August. As the month wore on the value of marks fell more and more and at the end it appeared that Germany was on the verge of economic collapse. On Aug. 7, another international conference (with America again absent) was assembled in London, this being the thirteenth since the war, and there was a general feeling that it would be the last. The prime question was what is to be done about the German reparations, but underlying was the whole subject of the entente. The conference opened like a meeting of importunate creditors, doubtful whether the debtor had any tangible assets. On Aug. 14 this conference broke up without coming to any useful conclusion. Indeed, the acrimony among the premiers was so sharp that even the entente between Great Britain and France was endangered. The international situation was saved only by the Reparations Commission excusing the Germans from the payment of 50,000,000 gold marks that come due on Aug. 15 But although the entente was nominally preserved there is no longer any illusion about the interests of Great Britain and France being different and that henceforth they will play their own hands. The London conference was really an effort to maintain the partnership, and it failed.

Jan 9, 1922

By AIME

AS the Petroleum Division rounds off the first quarter century since its evolution from technical committee status, there steps to the long line of notable men who have presided over its activities a young man, currently of Tulsa, one Herbert F. Beardmore by name. For one year, as Chairman for 1946, the Division will be his oyster. hi; baby, his responsibility. "Herb" Beardmore was born at Columbus, Ohio, Feb. 6, 1904, and lived there until he was thirteen. Then his family moved to Oklahoma City, and later sent him to the University of Oklahoma, where he graduated in 1925 with a B.S. in engineering geology. His final year in college was the first year in which a petroleum engineering course was taught at the school. Since his course of study so closely paralleled that of a petroleum engineer, he has frequently been spoken of as the first petroleum engineering graduate from the University of Oklahoma. Out of college he went to work as an oil-field roustabout in the Ranger, Texas, field for Jake L. Hamon. This work consisted of all manual labor phases of cable-tool operation and beam-pumping of oil wells. He moved in 1926 to Bartlesville, to become a gas engineer for the Indian Territory Illuminating Oil Co., where he was employed in gas-well drilling, gas production, and transportation, mostly in Osage County, Oklahoma.

Jan 1, 1946

By D. R. Parrish, F. F. Craig

In some respects, forward combustion (alias: fie-flooding, underground combustion, in-situ combustion, dry combustion) is an efficient oil recovery method. For example, its displacement efficiency (as much as 95 percent in reservoirs with high porosity and high oil saturation) is good. In its use of heat, however, forward combustion is grossly inefficient. Most of the heat generated during forward combustion is wasted. About one-fifth of the heat is picked up by the incoming air and re-used (regenerated); the remainder is left behind the combustion zone and ultimately is lost. Compressed air is expensive, and heat generated from compressed air via underground combustion is too valuable to be thrown away. Improvement is needed. Since the early 1950's, improvements in forward combustion by addition of water injection have been discussed, particularly in the patent literature, with increasing frequency.'-'' These concepts are based on the fact that relatively inexpensive water can be used to pick up much of the heat that is ordinarily wasted during forward combustion, and transport it forward to a more useful place, thereby reducing the amount of air required to move a heat front through the reservoir. Several approaches have been proposed. Merriam and Squires1 taught that a combustible (fuel) gas should be injected along with the air and water. This, however, would give at least a tendency toward reverse combustion instead of forward combustion, and would reduce the velocity of the heat bank, defeating the primary purpose of the water injection. Pelzer2 described primarily a batchwise method of forward combustion and water flooding. He advocated burning part way through a reservoir with forward combustion, then switching from air to water injection alone to push the heat toward the producing wells. Though possible, this method has serious disadvantages, the major one being that, by the time water injection is started, much of the heat has been irretrievably lost to the overlying and underlying formations. We have described what is considered a practical Combination Of Forward Combustion And Water-flooding (COFCAW).3,4 Air and water are injected simultaneously (or alternately) after a small heat bank has been formed by forward combustion. Some of the injected fluid fills up the region behind the heat bank; the rest enters the heat bank. Upon encountering heated rock, the water is converted into steam, which then flows ahead of the combustion zone and displaces much of the oil in place. Only enough air is injected to provide heat for vaporization of the water and to compensate for reservoir heat losses. Since the size of the heat bank is minimized, heat losses also are minimized. Because of more efficient oil displacement ahead of the combustion zone, fuel consumption is reduced. Too, unlike a forward combustion zone that cannot move until all fuel at a point has been consumed, COFCAW leaves some

Jan 1, 1970

By John B. Pearse

THE works heretofore used in carrying out the Bessemer process have been constructed substantially as follows : The whole works or plant has been divided into three parts. 1. The division in which the metals for conversion are melted. 2. The division in which the metals are converted into steel and cast into ingots, or the converting department. 3. The engine and boiler department which supplies the hydraulic power required to move the machinery, and which furnishes the blast used for converting the crude metal into steel.

Jan 1, 1876

By Peter G. Tregelles, Derek K. Barham

Introduction A successful step towards mechanisation of the collier's work was taken in 1954 when the first Anderton shearer loader was commissioned in Lancashire, and progress was reinforced in 1956 when the first powered supports were installed in Nottinghamshire. By 1970, virtually 100% of the coalfaces in the United Kingdom were mechanised and the industry's productivity had doubled. In 1961 the National Coal Board recognised that the next move towards greater productivity and improved safety would be to automate the longwall system. What was not well enough understood, however, was that the basic prerequisites of automation - reliability and measurement - had not yet been achieved. Consequently, the schemes for automatic longwall faces and for an entirely automated colliery were abandoned at the close of the decade. A review of mining research and development policy, commissioned by the Board in 1974, confirmed that the system of longwall mining had great potential for investment and that the short-term policy of automation must once again be pursued. Since then, aided by advances in computer technology, systems for automating the transport of coal from the face to the coal preparation plant have been successfully instituted. Applications of sub-systems dealing with the conveyor, coal preparation plant, and various items of fixed plant are now at the exploitation stage. In the medium term, a number of key problems have been identified, which will arise once the productivity from the coalfaces has doubled, as it is now expected to do in the next five years. One of the most important of these problems is machine guidance, and considerable research and development work is now being carried out in this area. This paper reviews the work on machine guidance prior to 1974 and explains the programme on which the National Coal Board's Mining Research and Development Establishment is currently working.

Jan 1, 1981

By Oscar A. Glaeser

The purpose of this paper is to present specific applications of the fundamental principles of mine ventilation and the means that are at our disposal to accomplish the task of maintaining a healthful atmosphere in small mines and prospect openings. Need for Ventilation The range between the maximum oxygen content of normal air and the minimum safe content is extremely narrow, approximately 5 per cent. Furthermore, normal air must not be contaminated with irrespirable gases beyond definite limits, and mineral dusts are equally dangerous, although health impairment is slower. Tables 1 and 2 present the more common respiratory hazards encountered in mines. Adequate ventilation is the most effective means available to reduce or eliminate these hazards. Mechanical ventilation has reached varying stages of perfection in coal mines and in many large metal mines. The small mines and prospects rarely have a definite plan of ventilation. As a consequence underground workers are frequently exposed to health and accident hazards. The annual reports of fatalities in mines in the Western States record yearly many deaths due to asphyxiation and deaths caused by men falling down shafts and raises after being overcome by gas. At times mining operations are slowed up because there is no means of driving out the gas after blasting. For that reason only one shift is worked, or men wait from one to several hours for the "smoke" to clear out. Methane gas in varying quantities is widely distributed throughout California. It has been encountered in explosive concentrations in the coast range. It has been found on the Mother Lode and in quicksilver mines near the coast. Methane explosions have not been uncommon in underground operations and in tunneling jobs. These conditions and records indicate that there is room for improvement in mine-air conditions.

Jan 1, 1937

By L. Stone, H. Margolin

The Ti-C-N and Ti-C-O systems were investigated in the temperature range from 500° to 1400°C and in the composition range up to 2 pct C and 5 pct N or 0. Characteristic isothermal sections at 800°, 900°, 1000°, and 1300°C are presented. The Ti-N-0 system was studied in the temperature range from 900' to 1400°C with alloys containing up to 6 pct total alloying content. Characteristic isothermal sections at 1000° and 140O°C are presented. Melting-point data for all three systems are also included. THIS paper reports on one of a series of investi-gations which have been conducted on the phase diagrams resulting from interstitial alloying with iodide titanium. The other investigations involved delineation of the binary systems with carbon,' nitrogen and boron,h and oxygen. The Ti-0 binary system has also been investigated by Bumps et al.' In varying degrees, each of these interstitial elements has been shown to stabilize the low temperature a modification of titanium1-5 and each forms a face-centered cubic TiX compound (henceforth designated 6). In addition, the Ti-N and Ti-0 systems reveal a low temperature tetragonal phase (6) formed by a peritectoid reaction between a and TiX Experimental Procedure The development of experimental techniques for the study of titanium alloy systems has, to a large extent, become standardized. In this investigation, the equipment and procedures described in detail by Cadoff and Nielsenl have been used. Arc Melting: In general, binary alloys with carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen, prepared in the composition range of interest in this investigation, show negligible composition changes during arc melting. However, the possibility of the formation of some gaseous combination of alloying elements such as CO, CN, or NO during the preparation of these ternary alloys was considered. Calculations showed that the evolution of only 0.05 gram of such a gas would be detectable as a pressure change in the closed system used during preparation of these alloys. Such pressure changes were not observed. Consequently, nominal compositions have been used in plotting the data. The compositions of the materials used in the preparation of the alloys are shown in Table I. After melting for 3 to 5 min at 275 to 350 amp, the alloys were checked for homogeneity by microstruc-tural examination. Alloys containing up to 1 pct C were homogeneous in the presence of less than 3 pct N or 0. At higher alloying contents, some inhomo-geneities in the carbon distribution became evident. Alteration of the melting procedure toward longer times and higher currents did not improve the homogeneity of these alloys. Ti-N-0 alloys were homogeneous in the range to about 3 or 4 pct total alloying addition. Beyond this, almost all of the specimens showed as-cast microstructures consisting only of the phase. Consequently, inhomogene-ities could not be detected by examination of micro-structures. Ten alloys from each of the systems were analyzed for two of the elements present (oxygen being omitted in all cases and titanium being omitted in the Ti-C-N alloys). In all cases the analyses were found not to be sufficiently precise to serve as criteria for the total composition of these alloys. On the basis of phase distribution in heat-treated alloys, however, it appears that carbon is distributed throughout the alloys most uniformly, with oxygen and nitrogen following in that order. Heat Treatment: Specimens for heat treatment were wrapped in titanium sheet before sealing in the argon-filled quartz capsules. Heat-treatment times varied from 100 hr at 800°C to 0.5 hr at 1400 °C. After heat treatment the specimens were quenched by breaking the capsule in water. With the exception of alloys in the low composition region, heat treatment did not have an appreciable effect on the as-cast microstructures. Metallography: Following heat treatment, the specimens were prepared for metallographic examination by grinding on emery paper and electrolytic polishing. For the majority of the specimens a 10-sec etch with Remington "A" agent (25 pct HNO3, 25 pct Hf, and 50 pct glycerin) adequately

Jan 1, 1954

By Francis F. Lucas

A microscope objective of given numerical aperture, when used with light of given wave length, has some fixed limit of resolution. This may be expressed as potential resolving ability—the ability to resolve is inherent in the lens but whether this limit is achieved in practice is quite another matter. Nearly 50 years ago Abbe evolved theoretical considerations which indicated that the ability of a lens to resolve detail is directly proportional to twice the numerical aperture of the objective and inversely proportional to the wave length of the light used. It is true, unquestionably, that as the numerical aperture of the objective is increased the potential resolving ability of the lens is increased and likewise when the wave length of the light used is decreased, the degree of resolution is increased. Whether Abbe's formula expresses the exact relationship is not a matter of great concern. It suffices to know that to improve resolution, other things being equal, two avenues of approach are available. Either the numerical aperture of the objective may be increased or the wave length of the light decreased. With the apochromatic system it is possible to employ successfully wave lengths from 400 to 500 uu and still secure reasonably short exposures. The present limit for numerical aperture is 1.40 N. A. although objectives of 1.60 N. A. are now an experimental possibility for metallurgical work. Thus certain well defined limits are set for those who work within the range of the visible spectrum. In order to take advantage of the increase in resolving power which accompanies a decrease in the wave length of light employed, Dr. A. Kohler and Dr. M. Von Rohr of the Zeiss Scientific Staff developed the "monochromats." These are quartz objectives corrected for the single wave length 275 uu which lies in the ultra-violet region of the spectrum. They also developed a series of quartz oculars and a complete photo-micrographic equipment with which to use the quartz optics. Quartz must be used for the optical parts because glass absorbs ultra-violet light almost completely. Thus there was made available about 20 years

Jan 1, 1926

By R. C. McFarlane, T. D. Mueller, J. E. Walstrom

In evaluating uncertainty, experiments are usually performed repeatedly and then conclusions are drawn from the distribution of results. With the advent of high-speed electronic computers, it is possible to perform experiments using mathematical models constructed to simulate complex experiments or operations. Statistical methods are then applied to the results of the simulated experiments. This procedure forms the busis of this paper. Demonstrated is the need for properly accounting for uncertainty in petroleum engineering problems. How uncertainty affects solutions is evaluated in three example illustrations. The method used to evaluate uncertainty in petroleum engineering studies is the Monte Carlo simulation procedure.'-" INTRODUCTION The solution to most technical problems may be derived from interrelationships among several quantities called variables or parameters. There may be only a few variables or several hundred. Interrelationships among parameters may be explicit or implicit, well established or only approximate. Some variables that fully or partially depend on the magnitude of others are called dependent variables. Input variables for most practical problems are not precisely known; there is usually an uncertainty in their value. The degree of uncertainty may vary from one variable to another. Variables that are known accurately are called determinates.' For instance, the gravity of crude obtained from a particular pool may be known precisely, and therefore is a determinate. The degree of precision with which a quantity can be determined increases as data describing the pool are accumulated during the development of the field and the producing life of the pool. The uncertainty of a parameter may result from difficulty in directly and accurately measuring the quantity. This is particularly true of the physical reservoir parameters which, at best, can only be sampled at various points, and which are subject to errors caused by presence of the borehole and borehole fluid or by changes that occur during the transfer of rock and its fluids to laboratory temperature and pressure conditions. Uncertainty may also result in attempting to predict future parameter values. This type of uncertainty is particularly evident in investment analyses involving future costs, prices, sales volumes and product demand. Uncertainty in the solution to investment problems is often called risk, and its study is called risk analysis.' Uncertainty also enters into biological and sociological analyses in which indeterminate factors are often important due to limited control of the experimental material. It is customary, in evaluating uncertainty, to perform repeated experiments and to draw conclusions from the distribution of the results of these experiments. With the advent of the high-speed electronic computer, it is possible to construct mathematical models which simulate complex experiments or operations and to perform the experiments repeatedly, utilizing the models. Statistical methods are then applied to the results of the simulated experiments This method forms the basis of the investigation reported here. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR VARIABLES The uncertainty in the value of a variable may be indicated by a probabilistic description accomplished by expressing the quantity by a probability distribution. Many recognized probability distributions can be used to describe physical quantities. Recent studies used various types of distributions to describe core analysis data.',' However, for the examples in this paper, the uniform and triangular distributions are believed to reasonably approximate the data used (Fig. 1). The uniform distribution confines the variable between an upper and a lower limit. The variable may lie anywhere between the two limits. This distribution is used when no one range of values for a variable is more probable than any other, but information or intuitive reasoning indicates the variable will lie somewhere between the chosen limits. The triangular distribution is used for a variable when more data are available to indicate a central tendency of distribution. This allows postulating a "most likely" value to the distribution and upper and lower limits. In this case, as for the uniform distribution, the variable is not expected to assume a value less than the lower limit or greater than the upper limit. However, with improved quality of data it can be postulated that the variable will tend to assume a value close to the most likely value, and that there will be a decreasing probability for values away from the most likely value. The area under either of these probability distributions is equal to unity since it is assumed that there is a 100 percent probability that the variable will lie somewhere under the curve. An ordinate erected at any particular value of the variable divides the area under the curve into two parts: the area to the left of the ordinate represents the probability that the value of the variable will be equal to or less than the value of the variable at the position of the ordinate, and vice versa. The probability is zero that the variable will have any specific deterministic value. If two ordinates are drawn for any two values of the variable, the probability that the variables will have a value lying between these ordinates is equal to the area under the curve lying between the ordinates.