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Meeting, Aug. 20, 1913, B te, Montana, at 12.45 p.m.-On, the written request of 27 members of oft Institute residing in Montana, the Montana Local Section was established, and the following Committee was appointed by the President of the Institute to complete the organization : E. P. Mathewson, Chair pan; Frank M. Smith, Vice-Chairman; D. C. Bard, Secre-tary, Montana State School of Mines, Butte, Mont., Oscar Rohn, James L. Bruce. The President reported the appointment of a Committee on Mining Law, the names of whose officers and members are given on page xxxv of this Bulletin, and these appointments were approved. It was voted: That the Committee on dining Law be requested to establish a Sub-Committee on Censorship, a majority of whom shall be lawyers; and, further, that no paper on mining law be recommended for publication to the Committee on Papers and Publications, unless it is previously approved by the Sub-Committee on Censorship of the Committee on Mining Law. The President reported progress in the matter of co-operation between the Institute and the United States Bureau of Mines, through Committees of the Institute. The President reviewed the history of plans for a union or affiliation with the Mining and Metallurgical Society of America, and the following minute was then adopted : " The Board of Directors of the American Institute of Mining Engineers has carefully considered for several months the question of union or affiliation with the Mining and Metallurgical Society of America ; and, while at an earlier time and under other circumstances, such. a union might have been accomplished, yet under present circumstances the Directors of the Institute deem such union inexpedient. "While thanking the Mining and Metallurgical Society of America for its consideration of the matter, we believe that further discussion of the subject will serve no useful end, and we conclude it best that the Society and the Institute continue their useful functions and friendly relations side by side, as heretofore."

Jan 10, 1913

By J. Sharshall Grasty, Thomas L. Watson

The users of barite in the United States derive their supply partly from the domestic production and partly from the imports from foreign countries. According to the Mineral Resource division of the U. S. Geological Survey, the domestic production of barite in 1913 was 45,298 short tons, valued at $156,275, or $3.45 a ton, and the imports of crude barite were 35,840 short tons, valued at $61,409, or $1.71 a ton. These figures clearly show a decided advantage in cost of the foreign over the domestic barite to users in the United States. The difference in cost is the only advantage to the consumer of foreign barite, for there are large reserves of the mineral in the United States of good grade. The production of many of the operating mines is capable of decided increase, and it is believed that the operating mines together with the large reserves of undeveloped deposits of barite are entirely adequate to meet the demands of the users in the United States. Deposits of barite are known in California, Idaho, Nevada, and Alaska, but most of them are undeveloped because there is, apparently, no market for the material in that region. The domestic production is derived from Missouri .and the Appalachian States, the greater part being obtained from Missouri. Following the outbreak of war in Europe many users of foreign barite in the United States have been forced to seek their supplies at home. It seems opportune at this time, therefore, that a general review be given of the barite industry in the Appalachian States, one of the two areas from which the domestic supply of the mineral is derived, and that attention be directed to the undeveloped deposits in the region. Briefly, then, this paper reviews the barite industry in the Appalachian States, and describes the occurrence, preparation, and uses of the mineral. General Character Barite, known commercially as barytes or heavy spar, is barium sulphate (Baso4), containing when pure BaO, 65.7 per cent., and S03, 34.3 per cent. The specific gravity is 4.3 to 4.6, and the hardness 2.5

Jan 1, 1915

By W. G. Jeffery, James F. McDivitt

THE FRAMEWORK Consider where you, the reader, would place the emphasis m your answer to the following questions on mineral supply. Do you think of the mineral resources of developing countries in terms of the contribution which they can make to world mineral supply or in terms of the contribution they can make to development of the country? Do you look upon developing countries as a source of minerals for world industry or as a potential enormous market for minerals? If you are from a developed country it would be surprising I£ you did not emphasize the first alternative in each case, but it is also possible that simply raising the questions will call for some mental adjustments, because usually we do not think in these terms. If you are among the two-thirds of the world's population which comes from developing countries, you might well emphasize the second alternative. And to a growing extent during the reaming decades of the 20th century this is where emphasis must be placed. Increasing amounts of the world's mineral production come from countries which are in the early stages of development. Mineral consumers of the world look to these regions for continuing supplies of material to help meet their ever-growing needs; the producing countries look to mineral exports as one means of stimulating and financing their economic development-this seems a happy and fortuitous relationship. But due to the complexities of world mineral supply, it is a relationship which is fraught with potential confusion and misunderstanding. That this is so is not surprising when one considers that many of the producing countries are new countries which are urgently trying to find the path along which they can move towards development; that the direction of the path is by no means clear because various theories of economic development, as a planned and deliberate process, are relatively recent in origin and none are well understood; and that the very concept of the less developed countries (LDC's) is a relatively new one. To further complicate the situation there has never been a clear under- standing of the full role which minerals play in economic development, either in the case of those countries which are already classed as developed, or in the case of countries which are in the process of development. Before embarking on an investigation of some aspects of the relationship between minerals and developing countries, it seems wise to establish broad terms of reference, which may not be totally valid but which will at least give an initial direction for a journey with no clearly definable goal. First it can be noted that the world has been divided somewhat arbitrarily into a group of countries that are termed developed or advanced and a group of countries which

Jan 1, 1976

By Robert R. Boyd

The gravity discussed here is that of the clean oil produced. Gravities of fluids containing water, free or in the form of emulsion, sand, drilling mud or mineral salts of a nonbituminous nature do not represent the gravity of crude oil as considered in this paper. During recent years it has become a frequent occurrence for operators to be called upon to explain to landowners the reasons for variations in gravity on shipments of oil from wells in which they are interested as royalty owners. In regard to single well leases it has been noted that marked changes in gravity frequently have occurred for no apparent reason. Data collected on the subject and correlated with production methods reveal interesting facts. It is the purpose of this paper to present some of the highlights on the subject. These gravity changes in the natural crude oil are with a few exceptions the result of the liberation under varying conditions of the volatile hydrocarbons from the natural oil-gas solution contained within the pool. The subject of the liberation of gases from natural oil-gas solution has been investigated by Ben E. Lindsly, of the U. S. Bureau of Mines, and the observations recorded here are in the main consistent with his conclusions. Investigators have recognized two methods of liberation of gas from solution—flash and differential. In the latter method the vapors are removed from the liquid as rapidly as formed and have no opportunity to come to a condition of equilibrium with the oil. In flash liberation an equilibrium condition between the oil and the gas exists at the pressure of separation. Mr. Lindsly has found that the method of liberating the gas from the oil has a pronounced effect on the final gravity and that differential liberation results in a higher A.P.I. gravity due to the higher ratio of gasoline producing hydrocarbons left in the oil. Under actual production practices with high velocities in flow strings, it is our contention that conditions of perfect equilibrium between gas and the oil rarely exist, and that gas separation is made under varying conditions, sometimes approaching that of equilibrium and at other times departing from it.

Jan 1, 1937

By AIME AIME

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers.-The semi-annual meeting of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers will be held in Detroit, Mich., June 23-26. A session will be devoted to hoisting- and conveying-machinery; and many other subjects will be treated in professional papers, among which are . Clutches (with special reference to automobile clutches); The Thermal Properties of Superheated Steam; The Horse-Power, Friction-Losses, and Efficiency of Gas- and Oil-Engines; A Journal-Friction Measuring-Machine; A Simple Method of Checking Conical Pistons for Stress, and The By-Product Coke-Oven. The usual receptions will be held and excursions will be made to manufacturing plants, the slip-building yards, and various points of interest in and around Detroit. Among the excursions' planned is one to the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor. The Gas-Power Section of the Society will hold a session, and the Society for the Promotion of Engineering Education and the Society of Automobile Engineers will hold meet-

Jan 5, 1908

By Michael P. Richardson

INTRODUCTION This paper is intended to be a summation of the state-of-the-art i n draw theory and draw- point spacing. Knowledge of this very important factor in the successful design and operation of a block caving mine is scarce and nonconclusive. It is hoped that the presentation of this paper will stimulate interest and discussion which will lead to a stronger understanding of these a1 1 important factors. Please note that block caving as used here- in refers to block, panel, and mass caving systems in general, not just to the specific system of block caving where discrete blocks of ore are prepared and caved as a unit. DRAW THEORY The knowledge of draw theory as related to the practice of block caving mines is, unfortunately, very limited. In recent years much work in draw theory has been done in respect to sublevel caving systems and an understanding of draw mechanics relating to sublevel caving seems to be emerging. This work is certainly helpful to those of us interested in block caving but the question of "what goes on up above" still hounds us since we are more interested in the region of draw which begins just above the area where sublevel caving interest ends. Herein is presented a brief summary of draw theory with an attempt to look at the factors which can help our understanding of the area of draw influence in block caving mines. Nature of Gravity Flow An understanding of the flow of granular material (rock, sand, grain, or prill as examples) is the first step toward understanding block caving draw. If we take a supported column of granular material and allow gravity flow through an aperture at the bottom of the column, an ellipsoidal shaped zone of disturbance of the in-place material will form and grow with extraction of material through the aperture. The volume of this zone of disturbance or loosening is about 15 times the volume of material extracted at any given time (Kvapil, 1980). Figure 1 shows the development over time of the zone of disturbance. The ellipsoid of disturbance represents a future ellipsoid of extraction which will equate to the volume of materia1 extracted by that future time. Extraction involves the movement of the particles located vertically over the drawhole directly downward while material outside this direct vertical volume moves radially inward and down toward the drawpoint as shown in Figure 2a. Figure 2b shows the result of this motion on originally horizontal strata within the ore column. Increased draw increases the eccentricity of the ellipsoidal volume or, in other words, the ratio of the height over the width of the disturbed area increases as ore is withdrawn from the column (Kvapil , 1980). This becomes important to block caving since eventually a vertical cylinder of draw will be approximated as this ratio increases without bounds. Figure 3 shows this result. The width of this draw cylinder is a critical dimension for the determination of draw point spacing in relationship to block caving mine design. McCormick (1968) for one, felt that within this cylinder of draw, mass flow would take place. This is the

Jan 1, 1981

By R. J. Brison, O. F. Tangel

The development of a new method of mineral separation was sponsored by the International Salt Company, which requested Battelle Institute to investigate means for improving the quality and appearance of rock salt from the Company's Detroit mine. Although developed specifically for removing impurities from rock salt, the general method may be applicable to other separation problems. The principal impurities in rock salt from the Detroit mine are dolomite and anhydrite which represent 2 to 5 pct of the weight of the mined salt. In the size range from 114 to 112 in. (the range of primary interest in this project) the impurities are only partially liberated from the halite in normal production. Further size reduction to improve the liberation of impurities is not practicable in view of the market requirements for the coarse grades of rock salt. Laboratory separations in heavy liquids showed that, to improve the quality and appearance of the rock salt substantially, it would be necessary to remove not only free gangue particles but also a large proportion of the locked-in particles.

Jan 8, 1960

By G. H. Ruggles

POPULAR opinion, as it might be termed, has always been of the trend that a flotation reagent added to the ball mill during grinding would be more thoroughly mixed with the pulp and for that reason more effective in the production of low tailing. That there are other effects, inimical to good flotation, when using so-called chemical reagents, is brought out by the series of tests outlined in Table 2. It was defi-nitely proved that if either the T. T. mixture (20 per cent thiocarbanalid-80 per cent orthotoluidin) or po-tassium xanthate were added to the ball mill the result-ing flotation concentrate would be lower in copper and higher in insoluble than the concentrate produced by adding these same reagents without the ball mill cir-cuit. With the T. T. mixture four sets of tests were made. The screen analyses of the flotation feed show that there was very little difference in the original grind-ing. When the T. T. mixture was added to the head of the flotation machine the flotation concentrate had a little over 61 per cent solids -200 mesh. If the mix-ture was put into the ball mill the flotation concentrate had but 40.7 per cent of the solids -200 mesh for one set of tests, and 49.0 per cent for the other set. With the mixture at the head of flotation the total concen-trate was high in copper (34.715 and 36.525 per cent) and low in insoluble (13.20 and 11.61 per cent). The assay of the concentrate when the T. T. mixture was introduced into the ball mill was what might be termed low in copper (29.389 and 30.833 per cent). In one of these 'sets of tests (periods 8 to 11, third column) the insoluble was high, 16.81 per cent. The other run (peri-ods 12 to 15, fourth column) for some unknown reason shows a low insoluble, 12.72 per cent. With similar grinding the addition of potassium xan-thate to flotation produced a concentrate having 62.8 per cent -200 mesh, whereas with the potassium xanthate added to the ball mill the flotation concentrate was very coarse, only 36.4 per cent passing 200 mesh. The difference in the total assay of the concentrate is remarkable ; 35.847 per cent copper when the xanthate went to flotation and 30.44 per cent copper when the xanthate was added to the ball mill; insoluble, 10.94 per cent in the former instance, as 22.15 per cent in the latter.

Jan 8, 1927

By Luther Lennox

THE purpose of this article is not to compare one type of grinding machinery with another and to conclude from a series of tests that one particular machine is superior to all others. Neither is the reader asked to tire himself with the details of many tests to prove the statements herein made. The Chilean mill stands today almost, in outcast from the milling world. It ranks with the applicant for a job who has been given a trial along with others and condemned because he was not able to perform the definite task assigned as well as the others, and was forever eliminated. The judges did not tarry long enough to try this aspirant in a field of a slightly different nature. Even though it has been condemned, the writer contends that the published records will indicate that the trials were never shifted into the field of greatest efficiency for the Chilean mill. Those of us who cling to this outcast as a fine grinder in our milling operations do not wish, naturally, to be condemned along with the machine, and yet we feel that we are classed as behind the times, at least in this phase of our milling judgment. Hence there is considerable personal feeling in our efforts. During the last few years there have been published several papers on the relative merits of the various grinding machines. In two of these articles a comparison was made between Chilean mills and cylindrical grinders. In each case the Chilean mill came out second best from about all standpoints. The outstanding feature in these comparisons would seem to be the decided attempt to keep all conditions the same, so that each machine could be judged on its merit. As Mr. David Cole states, "We are inclined to regard a direct comparison of grinders arranged side by side, and making a product that affords as nearly as possible the same screen measure, as the Supreme Court in these grinding matters." The writer agrees that this is the very best method for true comparison between machines. The results in the two detailed tests should give the relative merits of the two grinders in doing the work assigned. And they probably do. The conclusion drawn in each case was adverse to the

Jan 9, 1919

Dusseldorf, West Germany, will serve as the host city for the Ninth \World Mining Congress during the week of May 24, 1976. An estimated 2500 members of the world mining community from both management and technical sectors are expected to attend the five-day technical meeting. This years theme, "Exploitation and Beneficiation of Mineral Raw Materials by the Mining Industry--A Key to Progress " is divided into four areas which include-

Jan 4, 1976

By M. Mathieu

The Rove tunnel is the means by which the canal from Marseilles to the Rhone Riverl penetrates the hills of Nerthe, lying between Mar- seilles harbor and Lake Berre, Fig. 1. The canal will communicate at sea level with both terminals. The original project planned a lock near the village of Marignane; but observations, pursued for more than three years, showed that the water surface gradient would average only 0.015

Jan 1, 1923

By M. Mathieu

The Rove tunnel is the means by which the canal from Marseilles to the Rhone Riverl penetrates the hills of Nerthe, lying between Mar- seilles harbor and Lake Berre, Fig. 1. The canal will communicate at sea level with both terminals. The original project planned a lock near the village of Marignane; but observations, pursued for more than three years, showed that the water surface gradient would average only 0.015

Jan 1, 1923

By George H. Cook

At first sight this subject seems to belong to pure theoretical geology, but examination will soon show that it has important practical and economic interest to the mining engineer. The conclusion that all the northern portions of our country, as well as of the eastern continent, have, in the later periods of geological history, been covered with a thick bed of ice, is now accepted by geologists. This bed of ice, except in its greater magnitude, was like the modern glaciers of the Alps, and other mountains which extend above the line of perpetual snow. The marks it has left upon the surface show that it was comparatively thin on its southern edge, but that its thickness was much greater a little further north, and that it was several thousand feet thick at its kenviest parts. This variation of its surface would give it a descending slope towards the south, and cause the mass of ice, like a semifluid substance, to move in that direction,

Jan 1, 1879

By R. W. Smith, C. Schroeder, R. Haddenham

Amphoteric surfactants are heteropolar organic compounds which possess at least two functional (ionic) oppositely charged groups per molecule. The ones studied are manufactured by General Mills and possess one or more long hydrocarbon chains plus a carboxyl group (s) and an amino or imino group. Hallimond tube and M. C. Fuerstenau micro flotation cell flotation tests were performed on quartz and hematite as a function of pH using amphoteric, cationic, and anionic surfactants as collectors. For the most part, flotation could be correlated with an interaction of charged groups on the collectors with oppositely charged sites on the minerals plus association of hydrocarbon chains. The comparison of flotation in a Hallimond tube and an M.C. Fuerstenau cell shows that one should use care in using the latter if one excludes an additional frother from the system. Also, it is interesting to note that sometimes greater collector concentrations are required in the Fuerstenau cell for comparable flotation recoveries.

Jan 1, 1974

THE CHAIRMAN (A. F. LUCAS, Washington, D. C.).-The activities of the Petroleum and Gas Committee for the half year have brought gratifying results, as exemplified by 14 technical papers, brim full of novel and attractive issues in which we are all keenly interested. I beg to extend my hearty thanks to all members and authors who have responded to my appeal, and to all those who have endeavored to meet the growing demand which has resulted in the augmented production of this commodity which is so essential for the Nation's welfare, comfort and safety. As you well know, within the last few years, petroleum and its products have been used for numerous and novel purposes, so that we have become accustomed to their use in thousands of activities, and pleasures as well, but we should also note that we have been wasting and misusing these wonderful products, apparently believing that their sources are inexhaustible.

Jan 1, 1918

By E. C. Harder

IN view of the gradually decreasing known reserves of high-grade manganese ore and the rapidly increasing consumption of iron-manganese alloys in the steel industry, it is well to turn our attention to the development of low-grade manganiferous ore deposits and to the utilization of these ores in steel manufacture. The dependence of this country on imported manganese ore and ferromanganese has been forcibly brought to the attention of steel makers during the last few years by the cessation of manganese-ore imports from Russia, the restriction of manganese-ore imports from India and of ferromanganese imports from Europe. Should the importation of manganese ore from Brazil cease, the steel industry of this country would face a serious situation. The present practice of steel making requires ferromanganese in large quantities and ferro-manganese of the grade used at present can be produced only from high-grade manganese ores such as the United States appears to possess only in insignificant amounts. There are in the United States, however, large reserves of manganiferous iron ore which could probably be used extensively in the steel industry if certain changes in the practice of steel manufacture were made. Thus high-grade manganese ore could be conserved. Among the most important deposits of manganiferous iron ore in this country are those of the Cuyuna iron-ore district of Minnesota. It is probable that in case of restriction of foreign supplies, the users of manganese in the United States would have to rely to a large extent on the Cuyuna district to make up the shortage.

Jan 9, 1917

By John J. Stokes

Literature on the electrolysis of aluminum from cryolite melts and on the structure of these .melts is surveyed critically. Data on density, freezing point, and other properties are reviewed. Theories of the electrolysis are examined in the light of these data. Two theories are presented which account equally well for the observations. In the early days, the process was thought of as a simple one. The actual mechanisms must be tremendously more complex. This paper is devoted to a rather narrow part of the whole subject, namely, what ions are present in the bath, and by what mechanism the current is carried. Using cryoscopic data, Rolin has determined the following composition for molten cryolite. Na2,AlF 3Na + 3F + AlF [1] He postulates the following equation for the ioniza-tion of alumina at low concentrations Al2O3 Al + AlO2 +O. [2] At concentrations above 0.025M he supposes the ionization of alumina to proceed as follows Al2O3 AlO + AlO2. [3] Rolin's mechanism of electrolysis for the more concentrated solution in Eq. 3 is as follows. The AlO' ion migrates to the cathode. where it is dis- charged, giving metallic aluminum and 0' ions which migrate to the anode. The AlO2- ion migrates to the anode, where it is discharged, giving Al ions and oxygen which reacts with carbon to form CO2 In the case of the extremely dilute solution in Eq. 2 the Al ion migrates to the cathode and the AlO2-and 0 migrate to the anode as before. Another possible mechanism for the electrolysis follows. Ionization of Cryolite Na3AlF4 = 2Na + 2F + NaAlF, Na + AlF-AlF+Na + F [4] Addition of Alumina 2Na2AlF+ 2AL2O4 6Na + 3A12O3F4 [5a] Al2O2F 2AlOF2 [5b] Cathode Process AlF, + 3e+ 4F + Al. [6] Anode Process AlOF2 + 2F AlF1 + 1/20, + 2e or A12O2F + 4F-2A1F; + 0, + 4e. [7] Although both Rolin's and the present mechanism of the Hall process may be qualitatively satisfactory, present data are not adequate for quantitative tests of the theories.

Jan 1, 1959

By G. R. Gohn, S. M. Arnold

The results of stress-corrosion tests upon several non-ferrous sheet metals are presented in this paper. The metals include tough pitch copper, five binary brasses, two leaded brasses, one copper-silicon alloy, two tin bronzes, and two nickel-silver alloys. The tests indicate that for most of these sheet metals, externally applied bending stresses below the yield point (0.01 per cent offset) do not result in stress-corrosion cracking as determined by the A.S.T.M. Tentative Method of Mercurous Nitrate Test for Copper and Copper Alloys (B 154-41T).~ Only in the cases of low brass, high brass and medium leaded brass, all cold-worked 4 B & S numbers hard, was any corrosion cracking observed below the yield strength, and in all cases such failures occurred at stresses above the proportional limit for these materials. However, when some of the same materials which showed no evidence of stress-corrosion cracking at stresses below the yield strength, are stressed beyond the yield point, stress- corrosion cracking is quite apt to occur. Since experience has shown that some of these materials, particularly the brasses, are susceptible to stress-corrosion cracking under service conditions, these tests would indicate that, besides externally applied stress and corrosion, plastic deformation in addition to that resulting from the original cold working of the material is also required to produce conditions conducive to stress- corrosion cracking.

Jan 1, 1945

By Arthur V. Abbott

During the past four years I have had occasion to make quite extensive use of steel castings in the manufacture of testing-machines and large scales for Messrs. Fairbanks & Co. The failure of some of these' castings at stresses much below those which were claimed for them by the makers, induced me to institute a series of experiments to determine the actual constructive value of the steel castings now to be obtained in this country. The art of steel-casting is rapidly improving, almost every issue of the scientific press bringing accounts of some new development; consequently, the results of the following experiments are only exponents of the value of steel castings as at present made. In order to make the examination as thorough as possible, ten sets of patterns were made and forwarded to as many different firms in the country who advertised to make steel castings. The first part of the accompanying table gives a list of these manufactures, together with the price per pound. The order accompanying the patterns simply requested the manufacturer to supply two castings from each pattern of his ordinary product of steel. These castings were sent to me and paid for in the usual manner, so that it is probable that the samples fairly represent the quality of the average of steel castings, and are free from the suspicion of being "special runs." Two patterns were sent to each maker, one being a straight

Jan 1, 1886

By C. Richard Tinsley

INTRODUCTION The economic analysis (Chapter 3), the engineering studies (Chapter 10), the credit structure (and the consequential funding sources) - Chapter 11, and the overall feasibility structure for any venture are all directed to determining one major decision element: How much and how certain is the reward for taking these risks? Risk assessment is a surprisingly weak area of analysis and is usually addressed in a checklist fashion. It is much preferable to deal within a risk system so that the inevitable tradeoffs among risks are correctly made. DEFINITION The first step toward risk definition must be to ascertain all of the risks to which a project or a company is exposed; otherwise one will remain ignorant of the possibility of a financially crippling loss until it occurs. (Carter and Crockford, 1974). However, simply stating what "risk" is can lead to debate. For example, risk could be (adapted from Vaughan, 1982): -the chance of a loss - uncertainty of loss -possibility of loss - uncertainty -dispersion of actual from expected results - probability of an outcome different from the one expected - possibility of an occurrence of an undesirable contingency -a condition in which a possibility of a loss exists. For the minerals industry financier, the last definition is probably the most appropriate. However, from a mineral company's point of view the definition might well include the possibility of not achieving the expected financial return. RISK CLASSIFICATION Risk identification will be readily agreed as the all-important first step. There are five major "branches" of risk classification. These are: -Statistical -Modellers -Checklist -Project Financing -Insurance The Statistical set discovered probability theory and any risk discussion soon deteriorates into a mathematical jungle (Megill, 1977; Hartman, 1976; Reutlinger, 1970; and Pouliquen, 1970).Their use of terminology tells its own story: coin toss (binomial distribution), gamblers' ruin, delphi (oracle) techniques, monte-carlo simulations, random walks, etcetera. These techniques inadequately represent the judgements necessary in an increasingly complicated and interrelated world. The risk Modellers have turned to the computer to handle these inter-relationships but soon find barriers because of "simultaneity". Certainly the computer has its uses to conduct various analyses (marketed as "sensitivity" analyses) but very often one finds that this involves changing one or two variables at a time, all other things being equal. Unfortunately, in a modern and complex world all other things do not remain equal. The statisticians will, no doubt, jump to their own defence by citing this

Jan 1, 1985