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Mining had a very considerable effect on the country's development. The visual evidence remaining is an integral part of New Zealand history. Early mining for manganese and copper in the 1840s was succeeded by alluvial gold rushes. These gave way to hard rock extraction, hydraulic elevation and dredging. Coal mining dating from the 1850s was fairly widespread. Other minerals were obtained on a small scale. Manufacture of mining' machinery stimulated industrial engineering enterprises. Schools of mines played a significant part in advancing technical skills and several remain as museums. Surviving mine structures and site relics are part of the industrial heritage signifying the technological and economic development of a small isolated nation. Some of these are described. Identification, recording and preservation where practicable is advocated.

Jan 1, 1990

By M Barkh, F X. Spachtholz

The mining industry faces significant environmental challenges in managing tailing ponds and wastewater treatment, including the risk of contaminated water, breaches of tailing dams, and energy-intensive treatment processes. Traditional methods involve pumping water to secondary treatment facilities for neutralisation, which is costly and poses operational and environmental risks. In response to these challenges, the Professional Mine Water Action Plan (PMAP) introduces a revolutionary approach that combines cutting-edge AI technology and environmentally friendly reagents for in situ neutralisation of acidic wastewater. PMAP leverages magnesium-based slowrelease reagents and AI-driven intelligent dispensing systems to optimise treatment processes within the tailing pond itself. The unmanned smart dispensing vessel (USDV) conducts bathymetry to gather data on water quality and hydrography, allowing the system to determine the appropriate reagent quantity and injection strategy. This approach transforms the tailing pond into virtual reaction columns, enabling individual and simultaneous water treatment while optimising efficiency. PMAP’s novel reagent demonstrates exceptional efficacy in removing critical metals like cobalt, nickel, and copper, as well as reducing harmful metals such as mercury and manganese to undetectable concentrations. Unlike traditional lime-based treatments, PMAP’s reagent prevents gypsum formation and reduces waste volume significantly, improving reagent utilisation and solid waste handling. Furthermore, PMAP technology offers benefits beyond environmental stewardship. By reducing water treatment costs and improving resource management, it enhances operational efficiency and aligns with broader corporate sustainability goals. Additionally, PMAP expedites permitting processes by eliminating the need for traditional water treatment infrastructure and mitigating risks associated with hazardous reagent transportation. Integrating PMAP as a pre-treatment for existing lime facilities provides further benefits, including optimisation of treatment operations, reduced reagent consumption, and the recovery of valuable metals from generated sludges. Overall, PMAP represents a groundbreaking advancement in mining wastewater management, showcasing the transformative potential of AI and environmentally friendly solutions to foster sustainable and responsible mining practices globally. Its inaugural project in the Yukon Territory aims to demonstrate its capability to remove contaminants from mine water, paving the way for widespread adoption in the industry.

Sep 1, 2024

By Cloutier JY, Quinn P, LeClerc A, Dube G, Agar GE

Gold dissolution by cyanide requires the presence of oxygen which is usually supplied by sparging compressed air into the gold containing slurry. For those ores that contain certain obnoxious substances that consume oxygen, maintaining the required minimum level of dissolved oxygen can be troublesome. One of the most economical solutions to the problem of low dissolved oxygen, especially in plants that have air compressors installed, is to enhance the rate of oxygen mass transfer. The oxygen mass transfer rate was measured in a two phase system using two different sparger arrangements, and with addition of a frother that is known to reduce the bubble size produced by the sparger. The common sparger system was shown to be inefficient compared with a readily available but under utilised method of gas dispersion which introduces air directly below the reactor turbine. Transfer of this technology to an operating plant confirmed the beneficial effect of the improved sparger system. The addition of the frother did decrease the bubble size, but it also reduced the oxygen mass transfer rate.

Jan 1, 1993

By Z Li, D Chalmers, J M. Tenney

This paper presents the findings and analysis of the investigation of effectiveness of thin spray-on liners (TSLs) as a gas management tool in underground coalmines. The project involves spraying TSL on the area surrounding gas drainage holes whereby the TSL acts as a thin membrane decreasing the permeability of the coal. This restricts air migrating through the coal seam and diluting gas from the drainage holes. There are a number of potential benefits from this technique but key points are that gas drainage holes produce gas with higher concentrations of methane. The design and execution of a field trial to investigate the effectiveness of a TSL on purity of in situ methane from gas drainage holes is presented in this report. For eight drainage holes, the results show an average increase in methane purity by 9.14 per cent and a reduction in air contamination by an average 7.93 per cent. Overall methane flow rate decreased by 27.6 L/s; however, flow rates were unreliable due to poor measuring equipment. For most holes, methane purity was not changed significantly; however, certain boreholes were responsible for most of the variation in methane purity. The boreholes showing a dramatic improvement in methane purity were likely those with intersecting cleats covered by the TSL. If the TSL was sprayed over more area, specifically in areas where the cleats are intersecting with holes, it is likely that purity of methane in the drainage holes will increase.CITATION:Tenney, J M, Chalmers, D and Li, Z, 2015. Thin spray-on liners potential in reducing dilution of in situ gas in underground coalmines, in Proceedings The Australian Mine Ventilation Conference, pp 323–328 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 31, 2015

Knowledge of true block grades is obtained from a mathematical model of an orebody, simulated with sample grades normally distributed and spatially correlated according io a spherical semi-variogram model.The superiority of kriging to the polygonal method of estimation is demonstrated on this modelled deposit by comparing the true values with the kriged and polygonal estimates obtained from sampling the deposit. Finally, selection of blocks of the deposit on the basis of the estimated values, shows that if kriging is used, what is predicted is largely mined, whilst if the polygonal method is used large biases can occur depending on the position of the cut-off grade.

Jan 1, 1978

By A M. van Niekerk, W Mey

Coal mining has an impact on the water management of the water scarce Upper Olifants River Catchment. A prefeasibility study was carried out by Anglo Coal and Ingwe Collieries Limited to establish the water supply and demand in the catchment. A geohydrological model was used for the coalfields to determine the stored water and excess water available. Two distinct collective and treatment systems were proposed for the Witbank and Middelburg municipalities to treat excess water from the Anglo Coal and Ingwe Collieries Limited. The Emalahleni Water Reclamation Project for Witbank was initiated first. Water management and treatment experience gained at Anglo Coal was the cornerstone to develop the collection, treatment and distribution system. A full enquiry was issued to Keyplan, Veolia, Bateman Africa and IST Technik to construct, commission, operate and maintain a 20 ML/day desalination plant to treat acidic, saline mine waters to a South African National Standard (SANS) 0241 Class 0 potable water. After the technical and financial adjudication, Keyplan were awarded the contract. An integrated regulatory process was adopted through consultation with all the relevant regional and head office staff of the Department of Minerals and Energy, Department of Water Affairs and Forestry and the Mpumalanga Department of Land Affairs via an authorityÆs steering committee. A rock engineering evaluation was done to select both the plant and waste disposal sites as all possible sites are undermined. Various contracts are required with the individual mines for water supply, the Emalahleni Local Municipality for the delivery of potable water and for the disposal of wastes.

Jan 1, 2006

By T O&apos, Sullivan

Reconciliation of metal production from a sublevel cave (SLC) mining operation is a complicated process. SLC reconciliation is unlike reconciliation for open stope operations, where a tonnage of extracted ore can be assigned to an exact volume of in situ ore, and a direct comparison made between the estimation of contained metal and actual metal production. In SLC operations the ore extracted from a particular SLC drawpoint will be composed in part from the parcel of freshly blasted in situ material, in part from varying components of ore material (from cave stocks) flowing down from other previously mined areas vertically above the current draw position and in part from external dilution. This leads to difficulties in reconciling production grades against estimated grades. The problem is that we know how much metal we have produced but we can not precisely say where it has come from. Metal production reconciliation is fundamental in assessing ore reserve estimation accuracy and performance and in determining a draw management strategy for SLC mining. In terms of contained metal, differences in extracted metal compared to in situ metal represent changes to cave stocks. To generate local estimates of the cave stocks, differences in metal for each ring are treated as additions to or subtractions from a series of vertical columns of stocks extending throughout the height of the cave. The sum of metal differences (extracted versus in situ) for each vertical column results in a residual metal map at any particular mining level. The metal maps show areas where the metal production has been greater than or less than expected. The maps also highlight areas in the cave where residual metal is located, areas where targeted overdraw can reduce cave stocks.

Jan 1, 2006

By J Taylor, M Smith, A Tunnadine, D Nikolakopoulos

As Olympic Dam rapidly expands into the Southern Mine Area (SMA) the Mine Geology team has concurrently ramped up underground diamond drilling to sustain rates of above 175 km/a. With >10 underground rigs double-shifting, traditional paper sections used for the management of drill programs were no longer optimal due to scale of operations. An opportunity was identified to modernise monitoring of all underground diamond drill programs, through the integration of logged copper sulfide estimates with Olympic Dam’s first-fully integrated deposit-scale geological model in Leapfrog Geo. This paper describes the transition within the Mine Geology team from reliance on 2D paper sections, towards near-real time 3D geological modelling for optimising end-of-hole decisions in the field. This transition was enabled by innovative database solutions informing locally constrained implicit models, limited by a distance buffer around active underground fan drilling. Due to the high volume of historic drilling, there were significant computational challenges with the implementation of daily production style implicit models at Olympic Dam and initial testing of regular updates to implicit gradeshells and sulfide domains required in excess of 12 hrs to run. The enabling solution was to optimise the interfaces between the AcQuire database, Deswik MDM and Leapfrog Geo to create a dynamic, streamlined workflow that was easily completed by Mine Geologists in accordance with daily production duties. Geologists are now building rapid implicit models for a range of variables from an integrated data set of logged sulfide estimates and existing assays, spatially constrained by 150 m buffers around active drilling using a unique drill fan identifier flagged during the planning phase. Once the live-implicit models are updated, they are exported for visualisation on field tablets to be used during logging and core checks at the start and end of every shift. To manage the risk of ‘going digital’ interpretation remains at the forefront of the drill section close-out process, with Mine Geologists critically reviewing the finished sections on a standardised template with new learnings wireframed and communicated to stakeholders. The Live Field Model has enabled a step-change in the geological effectiveness of diamond drilling, reducing over – and under-drilling ore-waste at Olympic Dam continuing to push drilling effectiveness towards 20 per cent of intercepts >2 per cent Cu. In addition, upside or risk identified during the proactive management of drilling execution can be rapidly capitalised or mitigated.

Mar 22, 2022

By M Paakkunainen

Sampling is often the most critical part in process analysis. When the mean of a continuous lot, such as a process stream within a given time interval, is estimated by calculating the mean of several samples, the uncertainty of the estimated mean depends usually on the sampling strategy. Three different strategies can be used: systematic, stratified or random sample selection. The standard deviation of the lot mean is different for these methods so that systematic sampling usually gives the smallest and random sampling the largest standard deviation. Pierre Gy developed a method where the sampling errors of one-dimensional lots for these three strategies can be estimated from a variogram, which is calculated from a variographic experiment, ie from a set of one-dimensional time series measurements with fixed sampling interval. While variogram is an excellent tool for characterising and displaying the variability of autocorrelated processes as function of time, the sampling error estimation from it is quite laborious, however. In this work an alternative method for estimating the sampling errors was developed. The process is divided into strata of equal sizes, varying the length of strata similarly to variographic analysis. For stratified sampling the standard deviation estimates are obtained by analysis of variance and for systematic sampling by fitting a linear regression line to each stratum and calculating the residual variances. By pooling the individual variance estimates the variance estimates that are corrected for autocorrelation are obtained. The new method was tested with simulated and real data sets having periodic, random and/or drift fluctuations. For stationary processes the results agreed well with the results of the GyÆs variographic method. The method can probably be generalised to estimate the sampling variance of higher-dimensional lots.

Jan 1, 2005

By A Bouazza, J Kodikara

In this study, 23 samples of leached ash (LA) were collected from an ash pond at Loy Yang Power Station and geotechnically characterised. The samples were collected at various depths and locations within the ash pond on two separate occasions in order to account for the full variability. The LA within the ash pond at Loy Yang Power Station (LYPS) was found to vary in texture from silt to sand, depending on the location from where the sample was collected. Samples collected near the ash pond inlet discharge point, for instance, contained more than 50 per cent sand sized particles and were subsequently classified under the Unified Soil Classification System (USCS) as silty sand (SM). Further downstream of the inlet discharge, the LA became progressively finer and was classified accordingly as elastic silt (MH) when the sand content became less than 50 per cent. Basic geotechnical testing revealed that the LA from Loy Yang Power Station was generally acceptable as a landfill cover material. The permeability of LA, however, was generally too high for prescriptive covers, (ie resistive covers that generally rely on the impervious nature of the material to control percolation). Alternative covers, generally rely on the store/release function of a capillary or monolithic barrier to prevent percolation into the landfill. Subsequently, a material that can maintain a high water storage capacity while at the same time, readily allow infiltration and evapotranspiration is required for an alternative cover. Sandy silt and silty sand are optimal soils for alternative covers, as they do not yield water to gravity forces, but do give up most of the water in their pores when subjected to high-matric suction (Kavazanjian, 2001). The effectiveness of alternative covers is ultimately assessed using computer models, such as UNSAT-H and HYDRUS-2D, to rigorously perform water balance calculations. Prior to using a computer model to determine the highest possible percolation in the worst climatic conditions, it is necessary to select the most appropriate materials. This paper suggests a method to screen available materials for use as an alternative cover material on the basis of the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC).

Jan 1, 2003

By J L. Lett, I Brunton, T Thornhill

Block cave fragmentation has been documented in the literature to have a significant impact on mine design, performance and downstream material handling and comminution processes. Due to this impact, emphasis is placed on the premining prediction and subsequent quantification of primary and secondary fragmentation distribution. This paper discusses the fragmentation prediction and assessment methodology employed at the Ridgeway Deeps (RWD) and Cadia East PC1 (CEPC1) cave operations.Prediction of drawpoint fragmentation was based on an iterative process, which relied on an improved quantitative and qualitative understanding of the rock mass as the mining project developed. In particular, the collection of scanline mapping data provided detailed information in relation to discontinuity trace length, persistence, termination characteristics and large-scale planarity. This allowed an improved estimation of select modelling input parameters, in particular ‘block forming’ discontinuity orientation and strength characteristics.With the start of production, drawpoint fragmentation assessment was undertaken using digital image processing (DIP) techniques for drawpoint extracted tonnes up to 61 000 t. This technique provided a consistent methodology to estimate changes in fragmentation as the block cave matured. It can generally be concluded that the measured mean fragmentation distribution became finer as drawpoint tonnage increased. The incremental change in fragmentation distribution (per 10 000 t) was not uniform, with step changes evident. In addition, for a given geotechnical domain and drawpoint tonnage, the measured fragmentation distribution range was found to vary significantly. A possible explanation for these observations may relate to the disturbed flow behaviour noted from marker experiments at RWD and CEPC1. These experiments indicate that material reporting at the drawpoints (for any given tonnage extracted) may be sourced from highly variable heights within the cave, with finer material preferentially reporting.A comparison between predicted and measured drawpoint fragmentation distribution indicated two general findingsa close match between predicted and measured distributions for material greater than 1.0 m3an under prediction of finer material passing 0.5 m3 relative to measured.The findings would indicate that the fragmentation modelling frameworks utilised at both RWD and CEPC1 were deficient at predicting the percentage of finer material for both primary and secondary fragmentation.The wide range in fragmentation distributions observed in the measured results, and the discrepancy between modelled and measured fines should be considered in the design of mine (material flow, extraction level geometry and draw rate), material handling (crushing and material movement), and downstream milling (comminution and metal recovery) processes for future block cave mines at the Cadia Valley Operations (CVO). With respect to fragmentation distribution range, a sensitivity analysis should be undertaken for these design considerations, with a range in predicted fragmentation distributions investigated (for example, lower quartile, mean and upper quartile). For future mines with similar geotechnical and mining conditions, the calibration of fines should be considered in any fragmentation distribution prediction to match those measured previously.CITATION:Brunton, I, Lett, J L and Thornhill, T, 2016. Fragmentation prediction and assessment at the Ridgeway Deeps and Cadia East cave operations, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 151–160 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By E J. Hill, F Huang, A Otto

Geochemical data from drill core samples is used in mineral exploration to enable geologists to understand subsurface geology. However, it is challenging to analyse these data sets rigorously and consistently. Manual data interpretation relies on the knowledge and experience of logging geologists. When multiple geologists are involved, it is possible to introduce inconsistencies in logged lithology type and scale of logging (‘splitters’ versus ‘lumpers’). Machine learning (ML) is a powerful tool for analysing high dimensional data (ie data with many variables) and large data sets (ie data with many samples). However, ML methods applied to drill hole samples do not incorporate spatial information and this can result in high misclassification rates and small-scale ‘noisy’ results. We demonstrate the use of multiscale spatial analysis (wavelet tessellation) as a pre-ML step to analyse spatial information. This step helps reduce misclassification and filter out unwanted small-scale variation in the data. In an experiment, we used wavelet tessellation and supervised ML to predict litho-geochemical rock types from geochemistry data. The data set is from the Valhalla uranium deposit near Mount Isa, northern Queensland. First, geochemical knowledge and statistical analysis was used to select appropriate geochemical elements for litho-geochemical classification. Second, the elements were processed using multiscale spatial analysis. Third, we trained a Random Forest model with the data set and found that the model performs worse in predicting rare rock samples than common ones. We applied over-sampling and down-sampling methods in aim to overcome this issue. As a conclusion, the combination of multiscale spatial analysis (to define rock unit boundaries) and Random Forests (to classify rock units) is a good method for rapid and accurate analysis of drill hole geochemistry.

Mar 22, 2022

By S Bright, M J. Masamvu, E K. Chiwandika, S Dandi, S M. Masuka

The depletion of high-grade hard and lumpy chrome ores has forced Zimbabwean ferrochrome producers to resort to low-grade friable ores that have an average of 28 per cent fines against a set limit of 12 per cent. Submerged open arc furnaces currently in use are associated with eruptions within the furnace because of the high amounts of fines, high energy consumption, as well as high SO2 and CO2 emissions. Traditionally employed agglomeration methods such as pelletising and the use of coke in the furnace have been discarded because of the pressure to lower operational costs and to achieve higher profit margins. This research aims to develop a method to incorporate lowgrade friable ore fines and unprocessed coal into production while lowering CO2 and SO2 emissions through a closed direct current (DC) arc furnace. The closed DC arc furnace could incorporate the friable ores and coal while maintaining above 90 per cent reduction rates. Preliminary findings also show that energy consumption could be reduced by up to 35 per cent by incorporating a pre-heating and pre-reduction system using the flue gases from the furnace. In the proposed circuit, the cost of production per ton of ferrochrome might be potentially lowered by an average of 30 per cent.

Jun 19, 2024

By H Stedman

Integrating exploration and operational blastholes into one database significantly enhances geological modelling. Benefits include: improved coal predictions, stronger interpretation of structurally complex areas, detailed mapping of heat affected coal aureoles and additional roof accuracy for blast designs that deliver better coal protection.CITATION:Stedman, H, 2014. Integrating blastholes into exploration data to improve coal recovery and modelling, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 237–242 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 18, 2014

By Pigdon SP, Anderson RM

The production of stabilised backfill at mine sites commonly uses Portland cement as the binder. Calcined gypsum has cementing properties and is cheaper to produce than cement. This paper discusses the strength of fills stabilised with calcined gypsum. Laboratory tests were carried out on specimens prepared from tailings obtained from four different sites to allow for the wide variety of tailings found in practice. The results show that the gypsum-based fills can achieve a strength of I MPa using around two and a half to four times the corresponding amount of cement.

Jan 1, 1998

By T J. V Duffy, L H. D Siahaan, P G. Albert

G-ResourcesÆ Martabe Mine in North Sumatra, Indonesia, is a US$700 M world-class and world-scale operation in a country which, with a few notable smaller scale exceptions, has had no significant hard rock mining development in more than ten years.The mine was commissioned in the middle part of 2012 and poured first gold on 24 July. At full production Martabe will produce 250 000 oz/a of gold and 2 - 3 Moz/a of silver at cash costs in the lowest quartile. The mine location is on the west coast of North Sumatra, which experiences annual rainfall of 4 m with no notable dry season, adjacent to seismically active fault zones, and relatively close to a rural community of 31 000 people with no significant industrial experience.The management team has successfully forged strong links with the various government departments and levels in Jakarta, North Sumatra Province and the local Regencies; developed long-term relationships with the various community groups within the local district of Batangtoru to build a sustainable social licence; has dealt with the physical and environmental challenges presented by the project location, and has successfully raised more than US$900 M over a period of three years for the original acquisition then the development of the project.Whilst in its infancy of operation, the mine is set up to deliver a long-term sustainable future for the company, the shareholders, and the people of Batangtoru and all stakeholders generally. The quality of the project execution and commitment by the company will ensure that maximum value can be delivered from Martabe, not just for the current mine life but from the significant exploration potential that exists on the large tenement area that the company has access to for 30 plus years.This paper will deal with the physical challenges associated with the design, the Indonesian government regulatory requirements for mine development, the social aspects of building a world-class project in a developing area, the in-country commitment necessary for any project development anywhere in the world and the successful funding arrangements for the mine development.CITATION:Albert, P G, Siahaan, L H D and Duffy, T J V, 2012. Building AsiaÆs latest hard rock mine, in Proceedings International Mine Management 2012, pp 189-204 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 20, 2012

Project cost control procedures and computer systems have enjoyed a successful and simple relationship over the past decade, thanks primarily to the proliferation of portable computers or PC's. Prior to the introduction of this technology, project control was largely a manual and somewhat onerous task of historical data compilations, with little time available for dynamic forecasting, staged planning, or pre-emptive cost control. Automated systems developed during this era were resident on "Heavy Iron" or mainframe computers and were expensive to maintain and operate. Use of these early systems was limited to large engineering, construction, and industrial concerns with the economies of scale and funding required for their successful application. Systems were either designed for critical path analysis or task scheduling, but rarely integrated with the other, much less cost control.

Jan 1, 1990

Industrial Minerals production in New Zealand is limited in both quantity and range, but imported in quantities that make New Zealand the world's biggest consumer per head of population. The use of industrial minerals is assured as both population and standard of living increase regularly. But to develop these minerals in the New Zealand environment requires the mineral, or its market (both local and export), to have characteristics that negate the remote geographical location. Volume and/or uniqueness can achieve this.

Jan 1, 1997

By K Ehrig, J Griffith

An extensive suite of elements are routinely assayed on all resource drill core samples to assist in deposit scale resource definition, local mine scale delineation of ore zones, and ore characterisation for the planning and scheduling of mining and processing of ores at Olympic Dam. This paper discusses a deposit scale geochemical relation that can be used by mine geologists to find more high-grade ore at the local mine area scale at Olympic Dam.A 3D grade shell representing 0.8 per cent Cu was created for a mine area using drill hole assay data. This defined the geometry of the ore zone. The Cu-grade shell was then overlain onto the existing resource block model to evaluate the relationships between the Cu-grade shell, copper and other elements. The strongest correlation was between copper and manganese. The block model showed a dramatic decrease in the concentration of manganese just below the below the Cu-grade shell.Several drill holes that intersected the Cu-grade shell were selected to evaluate the copper manganese relation at the drill hole scale. As expected, the individual drill holes displayed a strong inverse relation between copper and manganese. A geochemical footwall was then modelled representing 0.1 wt per cent Mn. Using both the Cu– and Mn-grade shells, several drill holes were designed/drilled and all hit high-grade copper.For the vast majority of the deposit the inverse relation between copper and manganese is valid; however, in areas with intense chlorite alteration (related to amounts of mafic to ultramafic rocks) this relation is not as strong, due to increased manganese in the rock mass. Even though using the copper manganese relation as a drill targeting method was not always as reliable in a few small areas of the deposit, it demonstrates the value of using existing assay data integrated with the resource block model to discover local mine scale geochemical relationships which can be used to more effectively design drill holes to discover high-grade ore at Olympic Dam.CITATION:Griffith, J and Ehrig, K, 2017. Using existing data to improve the delineation of ore at the Olympic Dam Fe-oxide Cu-U-Au-Ag deposit, in Proceedings Tenth International Mining Geology Conference 2017, pp 321–326 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 20, 2017

By Zhang S

A probabilistic approach is proposed for updating open pit slope sta- bility based on successful performance. The suggested approach is developed within the framework of Bayesian probability theory. In seeking solutions to geomechanics problems consideration must be given to inher- ent variability of shear strength parameters and to the errors in the esti- mation of these parameters. The latter can be significant and may lead to consistent overestimation or underestimation of the values derived from site investigation and testing. Conventional deterministic methods of slope stability analysis do not allow systematic modelling of uncertainties in applied loads or in shear strength parameters. Within a probabilistic framework indicators of stability may be calculated, e.g., the reliability index and the probability of failure. Based on observation of slope per- formance at any given stage of a project, the mean or the standard devi- ation (or both) of a shear strength parameter may be updated. Consequently the indicators of stability can also be updated. The appli- cation of such an approach is demonstrated by an illustrative example.

Jan 1, 1989