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By H. E. James

Much has been said and written about the need to reduce South Africa's dependence on gold. To compensate for the decline in the country's foreign-exchange earnings resulting from the phasing out of gold, which must inevitably occur at some future date, a far higher priority will have to be placed on the mining, beneficiation, and export of the 59 other mineral commodities produced in South Africa. The basic strategy of the mining and metallurgical industries should be to move from the traditional approach of establishing a resource base to the establishment of a market base; to turn from production orientation to market orientation; and to rely less on exploration and economies of scale and more on process innovation and product development. The enthusiasm, entrepreneurial spirit, and commitment of the leaders in the mining and metallurgical industry will clearly be of decisive importance in the establishment of new industries for the beneficiation and export of added-value mineral-based products. The State can make a significant contribution by the provision of a welldeveloped and efficient infrastructure, including rail and harbour facilities, communications and health services, roads, and of electricity and water supplies. In our search for a new development strategy for the beneficiation and export of South Africa's minerals, we need to recognize that no one nation has all the mineralresources that it needs. Commercial and strategic manipulation of mineral supplies should no longer be tolerated. The future of the human species lies in international cooperation and in a greater understanding of the limitations of the world we live in.

Jan 1, 1985

By G. Akdogan, I. J. Geldenhuys, Q. G. Reynolds

Efficient recovery of titanium from titaniferous magnetite ores continues to be a promising, yet unrealised opportunity, despite significant occurrences of titaniferous magnetite deposits worldwide and the existence of established industrial-scale practices. Current smelting processes only recover iron and vanadium, while the titanium is discarded in the waste slag. These slags are stockpiled and present massive environmental challenges, while still containing value as residual iron, vanadium and titanium. The complex mineralisation of these deposits does not allow for a significant opportunity to separate the titanium and magnetite minerals through normal physical upgrading processes. An upgrading process is therefore required to derive economic value. An efficient process technology could create an opportunity to unlock all three valuable commodities. South Africa’s Bushveld Complex, the largest known deposit of its kind in the world, is known for the high vanadium content but is also associated with relatively high concentrations of titaniferous magnetite. The quality of the Bushveld Complex was one of the drivers for the establishment of the Highveld Steel and Vanadium Company in the mid-1960s. The unfortunate demise of Highveld Steel and Vanadium created an opportunity to review current practices and evaluate the best available process for this complex ore in the context of the three elements of interest. Past and current processes, the nature of these deposits and the potential to recover titanium are assessed to highlight the potential of fluxless smelting of titaniferous magnetite to produce a titania-rich slag as feedstock to the pigment, titanium metal industry in conjunction with recovery of iron and vanadium. Ilmenite smelting practices are proposed as a suitable alternative to achieve the goal, namely sustainable processing. Keywords: Titaniferous magnetite, titanomagnetite, smelting, titania slags, comprehensive processing

Jan 1, 2020

By R. C. A. Minnitt, A. Akpabio

This study presents a rigorous comparison between ordinary kriging and commonly used machine learning algorithms, those being, linear regression, support vector regression, decision trees, random forests (RF), and k-nearest neighbours for spatial interpolation of platinum grade estimates in a complex ore body within the Bushveld Igneous Complex. Using only X and Y coordinates as predictors, both ordinary kriging and machine learning models were evaluated at point and block supports under traditional and spatial block cross validation frameworks. While naive validation results suggested superior performance for k-nearest neighbour and random forest (R² = 0.92 and 0.86, respectively), these were revealed to be overly optimistic under spatial dependence. Spatial block cross validation results demonstrated substantial declines in model performance, with R² often falling below zero, particularly for decision trees and k-nearest neighbour, indicating strong overfitting and limited generalisability. Ordinary kriging exhibited more stable, albeit modest, performance under spatial validation, reflecting its strength in geostatistical interpolation when contextual geological variables are unavailable. The study underscores the critical importance of spatially aware validation in resource estimation and highlights that machine learning models constrained to spatial coordinates behave as interpolators rather than true learners of geological variability. Recommendations are provided for future work incorporating geological information to enhance predictive robustness.

Mar 30, 2026

Falls of ground (FOG) still account for around 35 per cent of all fatalities in underground southern African mines. To help reduce FOG, appropriate support technology needs to be implemented, and a mindset and cultural change are required to make a significant change. Discipline plays a major role and needs attention, whilst appropriate first-world support technology is available to assist in the reduction of injuries and the improvement of productivity. Section 54 mine stoppages due to FOG are costly. Appropriate support should reduce these unnecessary stoppages. Coal mining has adapted leading support technologies over the years. Platinum and chrome mines have shown significant moves towards adopting leading and appropriate support technologies, seeing noteworthy changes in injury statistics for the better. In typical conventional underground mining operations, the use of temporary support components offers some protection to workers while the permanent and generally more elaborate support systems are installed or constructed. Nonetheless, FOG continue and still result in injuries to people. The author wishes to explore the options and practicality of making use of new-generation support products and technology to provide not only safer support operations, but to also enhance productivity at the working faces. This paper will examine the use of appropriate support technology as a means to making the working stope or development end a safer and more productive workplace.

Jan 1, 2012

By T. R. Curr, W. A. Gericke, J. Basson

South Africa is a leading player in the international ferro alloys industry. Historical factors that have contributed to this dominant position include an abundance of natural resources and relatively low cost electricity. A number of relatively recent developments are potentially threatening this position. These include new legislation affecting the mining and minerals industry, a shortage of some types of suitable reductants, depletion of surplus electricity generation capacity with resultant threat of real escalation of electricity prices and pressure resulting from the recent strengthening of the South African Rand. The industry is addressing these challenges in a number of ways to ensure long-term viability. Some of these measures include investments in more efficient technologies that have economy of scale benefits and are less dependent on expensive reductants and electricity. Local macro-economic impacts include new legislation regarding ownership of enter-prises, mineral rights and royalties on mineral sales, development plans for port and rail infrastructure, as well as initiatives to expand electricity generation and coke production capacity. The fundamentals for being a successful ferro alloy producer are still largely in place for South African producers. Therefore the South African ferro alloy industry will remain competitive and is well placed for continued growth in line with the international growth in ferro alloy demand. The industry should emerge leaner, more efficient and ready to respond to any future demands of the industry. This paper will cover the present status of the industry, the factors that are impacting thereon and a view on its future outlook.

Jan 1, 2007

By E. J. Y., G. J. McLachlan, E. Amini, Koha

Inferring individual component flotation rates from recovery-time data of ore complexes is important in optimising and designing minerals processing plants. However, existing two-component first-order flotation models are computationally intensive to solve using conventional non-linear least squares regression. In this paper, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is used to approximate the inverse function which predicts the two-component first-order model parameters using recovery-time data. This paper compares the accuracy and computation speed of the proposed CNN against traditional non-linear least squares regression on 1 million generated data based on a known two-component firstorder kinetic model. It is shown that using a CNN is possible to approximate the inverse function for the non-invertible two-component model with recovery-time as an input matrix for convolution operations. The CNN method is 450 times faster to compute than the Trust-Region (TR) non-linear least squares regression algorithm. However, the CNN model is less accurate compared to the TR algorithm overall. Keywords: Flotation kinetics, convolutional neural network, inverse problem, modelling and simulations

Jan 1, 2020

By T. Bruce, R. C. A. Minnitt

Mining operations are generally reluctant to install high-cost sampling systems at operations that have been functioning for many years. The principal objection to installing appropriate equipment to extract correct and representative samples in process flows is the time and costs involved. The Theory of Sampling (TOS) provides a structured framework for identifying and quantifying the errors and bias associated with any sampling event, but this may be insufficient to initiate substantial investment in correctly designed sampling equipment. Financial losses arising from substandard sampling installations are usually disregarded because the value-add from a good quality sampling solution is invisible, but the cost is quite obvious. Depending on the needs, a less-than-perfect or fit-for-purpose sampling solution may be acceptable, provided the magnitude of sampling errors is understood and the assay results are interpreted accordingly. Categorical levels of acceptable accuracy and precision can be established depending on the sampling position in the mining value chain and the nature of the decisions to be made. The objective benefits of proposed fit-for-purpose sampling solutions should be presented to relevant decision-makers in such a way that adverse subjective decisions are countered so that appropriate solutions are implemented. Practical examples of the benefits from motivating the implementation of fit for purpose sampling solutions at sampling facilities around the world are provided.

Jul 2, 2022

By K. Dagdelen , S. K. A. Owusu

Uncertainty with regard to estimated grades and tonnages of a mineral deposit demands risk assessment in order to build investor confidence and attract the interest of other stakeholders in the success of a project. Uncertainties associated with Mineral Resource estimates can lead to unreliable production schedules and unpredictable cash flows. However, the techniques used in the mining industry to determine these uncertainties are inconsistent, because the important decisions taken in the process are solely dependent on the responsible Competent Person (CP), without limitations. This leads to disparities between different CPs’ results, using data-sets from the same drill-holes. The various standard codes for public disclosure provide guidelines and recommendations for the classification of Mineral Resources and Reserves but do not provide details on, for example, the amount of geological and geostatistical information needed to qualify for each category of Resources and Reserves. The parameters used to generate the classification categories are subjectively assumed by the responsible CP. In this paper we investigate the impacts of different CPs’ judgements on resource classification, using the same data-sets. The results underpin the need for the mining industry to develop a uniform Mineral Resources and Reserves classification framework that can minimize or avoid significant discrepancies that lead to potential misleading public disclosures.

Aug 8, 2024

By B. McFadzean, M. Tadie, T. Dzingai, M. Becker

Ores from a single deposit may exhibit extensive variability in their mineralogy and texture. The ability to quantify this variability and link it to mineral processing performance is one of the primary goals of process mineralogy. This study focuses on the effect of alteration in three platinum group element ore samples from the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe – two of which were more pristine compared to the third, which was locally classified as ‘oxidized’ ore. These ores are known to be characterized by varying degrees of alteration, resulting in numerous challenges in flotation and affecting both grade and recovery. Alteration, by near-surface oxidation, of the valuable base metal sulphides and platinum group minerals resulted in lower flotation recoveries of Cu, Ni, Pt, and Pd. Evidence of incipient oxidation was more readily observed in the base metal sulphide assemblage than the platinum group mineral assemblage, even though the loss in recovery (because of oxidation) was most significant for Pd. Alteration through hydration resulted in a significant increase in mass pull and dilution of concentrate grade through the inadvertent recovery of naturally floating gangue comprising composite orthopyroxene and talc particles. In this study, the amount of naturally floating gangue was more strongly correlated with the talc grain size distribution than the grade of talc in the flotation feed. The oxidation and hydration alteration reactions are not necessarily mutually exclusive, although one may be more dominant than the other, giving rise to ore variability.

Sep 1, 2021

By B. C. Alberts

Planning the use of South Africa's energy resources, especially coal, is of the utmost importance. The State and the mining industry require reliable official estimates of the economically mineable coal reserves for planning purposes. An overview of al the previous reserve estimates is given, with specific attention to the two most recent estimates-those of Petrick and De Jager. The differences between these two estimates are highlighted. The following important aspects are discussed: . the need to update the information regarding South Africa's mineable coal reserves, . the necessity of understanding and agreement between the coal-mining industry and the State department responsible for updating the coal-reserve data, and . the importance of the specific assumptions used in the updating of the data. A downward adjustment of mineable reserve figures is proposed, and the factors that influence the meaningful exploitation of the coal reserves are discussed. A recommendation is made as to how the Waterberg coal reserve should be exploited, and it is concluded that the Soutpansberg Coalfield cannot be exploited economically in the foreseeable future. An evaluation of the status of the coal-export trade is made and compared with the assumptions and targets set at the start of the coal-exportation scheme. The comparison shows the extent to which the exploitation of the coal reserves is being negatively influenced by the current market situation. Recommendations are made regarding planning for the coal-export market, and the aspects that have to be taken into account to keep South Africa in the export market are identified. Reference is made to the fact that the present unrestrained wage and salary adjustments, which show a total disregard of South Africa's poor productivity record, require serious thought and speedy rectification if the country is to survive in the export market. A salary and wage strategy must be developed to suit the specific needs of the Republic of South Africa.

Jan 1, 1987

The AMIRA Code of Practice and Guidelines for Metal Accounting was developed in response to demand from a number of sponsor companies, including one major platinum producer. Since its publication in 2007, the Code has become widely accepted in the mining industry world-wide as a guide for best practice in metal accounting. With the changes in the structure of the platinum mining industry in South Africa over the last 10 ? 15 years, in particular, the starting up of a number of small platinum producers who must have their concentrate smelted and the contained valuable metals refined by third parties, the need for metal accounting systems that are accurate and have an acceptable level of precision has become even more critical to the success of a platinum-producing operation. The current state of metal accounting in the industry is discussed and possible areas for improved accounting and associated metallurgical efficiencies are identified.

Jan 1, 2012

By E. Lutz, M. Momayez, K. W. Brown Requist

As real-time air quality monitoring becomes more prevalent in US underground mines, it is important to provide the highest data reliability with the fewest possible sensors. Real-time sensors remain costly, and these costs are not exclusively financial; the time required to install, calibrate, and maintain real-time sensors poses a large barrier to widespread implementation. Current atmospheric monitoring systems typically rely on displaying point-specific values. This requires operators to infer real-time airborne contamination distributions. Monitoring and control software utilizing mine ventilation network (MVN) solvers has been implemented in limited cases because of their ability to simulate ventilation systems quickly, but these solvers use a one-dimensional representation of the mine, limiting spatial resolution of estimated distributions. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has likewise been considered as a means to improve spatial resolution, but processing times prevent its use as a basis for monitoring and control. For the real-time monitoring of airborne contamination distributions, we propose a spatial interpolation method that can estimate the distribution of airborne contaminants in near-real time. This method provides a middle ground between fast processing times and increased spatial resolution. With the use of a pathfinding algorithm and optimization through absolute percentage error minimization, this method outperforms spatial interpolation with a Euclidean distance. By providing contamination distribution information to operators, this method and its derivatives stand to outperform current atmospheric monitoring systems.

Apr 16, 2024

By A. Lane

The socio economic risks of mining in South Africa have been emerging for some time now, and have been brought into sharp relief by recent events in the platinum sector. The slow pace of social upliftment in the country has lead to widespread social unrest with consequent calls for different forms of resource nationalism. Fundamentally, the key stakeholders are not fully aligned, and are not engaging productively. This poses significant above-the-ground risk to mining companies. Measuring social impact, deploying inclusive solutions and engaging effectively with stakeholders are three ways in which mining companies can mitigate this risk.

Jan 1, 2012

By R. J. Hundermark, L. R. Nelson

"The critical importance of tap-hole design and management for furnace performance and longevity is explored through examining some of the specific matte, metal, and slag tapping requirements of non-ferrous copper blister and matte converting and smelting, ferroalloy smelting, and ironmaking systems. Process conditions and productivity requirements and their influence on tapping are reviewed for these different pyrometallurgical systems. Some critical aspects of the evolution of tap-hole design to meet the diverging process and tapping duties are examined. Differences and similarities in tapping practices and tap-hole management are reviewed. Finally, core aspects of tap-hole equipment and maintenance are identified – aspects that are considered important for securing improved tap-hole performance and life, so pivotal to superior furnace smelting performance. IntroductionThe sheer diversity of tapping configurations used on industrial pyrometallurgical operations is at first bewildering. They range from historical tilting furnaces without tapholes to modern eccentric bottom tapping (EBT) tilting and/or bottom slide-gate electric arc furnaces; to classical single tap-hole multiphase tapping (e.g. metal/matte and slag); to dedicated phase tap-holes (e.g. dedicated metal/matte-only and slag-only); to dedicated phase multiple tap-hole configurations (up to eight metal/matte-only tap-holes and six slag-only tap-holes); to more esoteric metal/matte-only siphons and slag overflow skimming, e.g. Mitsubishi Continuous Process (Matsutani, n.d.). This can be further complicated by periodic batch tapping; consecutive tapping on a given taphole; alternating tap-hole tapping practice; near-continuous slag-only tapping, with discrete batch matte/metal tapping on higher productivity, but low metal/matte fall (<20% by mass feed) Co and Ni ferroalloy and platinum group metal (PGM) matte furnaces; near-continuous tapping through batch tapping of individual tap-holes that are opened consecutively (Tanzil et al., 2001; Post et al., 2003); to fully continuous tapping on coupled multi-furnace cascades (Matsutani, n.d.)."

Jan 1, 2016

By H. L. Monro

Contribution by B. K. Martust I congratulate the author on his interesting paper. In my view, the establishment of the level at which South African gold output is at some kind of optimum is an interesting though somewhat academic exercise. Contribution by D. M. Hawkins* The thesis of the paper is a very interesting one, but, before it is used as the basis of any firm proposals to restructure the mining industry, which changes may be irreversible, one should be very sure that the basis of the calculations is sound. Contribution by P. J. Niewenhuizen* The hypothesis advanced by Mr Monro that the demonetization of gold in August 1971 introduced a major new policy variable, namely the supply-pricejdemand-price relationships, into the decision making process touches on a matter that has never really been given serious thought by the industry. Contribution by B. G. Kingsman* As a co-worker on the development of an econometric model for supply and demand in the world gold market with Mr H. L. Monro, it would perhaps be useful for me to make some comments on the various points raised in the discussions on his paper.

Jan 1, 1984

By J. Hadjigeorgiou, T. R. Stacey

This paper introduces the Quantified Value-created Process (QVP), a decision-making process for use in mine design and operation. The implementation of the QVP is founded on a ten-step rock engineering design process and a ten-step strategic planning process. The potential of this approach is demonstrated by examples of value created as a result of good research, design, and planning. The QVP is divided into two parts, namely, a ‘planning the process’ section and an ‘implementing the process’ section, and can be considered to be an extension of the risk approach. All costs, direct and indirect, associated with a significant mining decision (design, operational, investment) must be quantified in advance of committing to that decision, to determine the value that will be created in the short, medium, and long terms. Ethical values, associated with health, safety, the environment, public perception, and social aspects, may be difficult to quantify in economic terms, but must nevertheless also be considered. In contrast with a traditional risk approach, the QVP will identify the upside, and allow executives to make more informed strategic decisions. In this context it is essential to actively engage upper management in the decision process.

Feb 2, 2022

By K. G. Philo, R. C. W. Webber-Youngman

mining, where data-driven decision making optimizes resource extraction, enhances safety, and ensures sustainability. The adoption of digital technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things has amplified the importance of digital information. However, the integrity and security of this information are paramount, leading to the exploration of blockchain technology as a potential solution for secure digital value exchange in mining. This research examines blockchain's capabilities, drawing insights from its applications in sectors like banking, government, healthcare, and entertainment, and evaluates their relevance to mining's core value chain processes. The study identifies blockchain's distributed ledger technology, cryptographic security, and decentralization as unique advantages that can revolutionize mining by enhancing transaction speed, reducing costs, and improving supply chain transparency and compliance with sustainability standards. Blockchain's transparent and auditable records can enhance business transparency, fostering trust among stakeholders, including investors and regulatory bodies. The technology's consensus mechanisms and smart contracts further promote trust in collaborative ventures. This research provides a foundational understanding for decision-makers in the mining industry to evaluate blockchain's feasibility and potential return on investment, guiding strategic planning and resource allocation for blockchain applications. By leveraging blockchain, mining companies can optimize operations, improve sustainability practices, and establish a robust foundation for future growth, positioning blockchain as a transformative technology in the sector

Jul 10, 2024

By E. Isokangas

A mine is essentially a series of operations, including drilling and blasting, crushing, milling, flotation, and leaching, that are interconnected and therefore interrelated, with the performance of one operation affecting the performance of another. Optimizing each stage separately without considering the whole system often causes potential economic benefits and energy savings to be missed. However, the PIO methodology is a thorough approach which considers these individual process activities within the context of the whole process. The basic principle is to optimize the process as a whole, rather than each process step in isolation from the others. Metso?s Process Technology and Innovation (PTI) group offers a global consulting service for the mining and construction industries. A significant amount of this consulting work involves process integration and optimization (PIO) studies. When conducting a PIO study, every aspect of the process is considered. In addition to drilling and blasting, transportation, handling and storage, crushing, screening, grinding, flotation, separation, and recovery, other aspects including equipment utilization and energy consumption and even greenhouse gas emissions are also included if necessary. In a PIO project, it is very important to understand what type of material is being processed at any point in time. That is, which domain or domains is the material part of? This is necessary in order to observe the effect of different ore sources (and the blending of sources) on concentrator performance. Linking the ore from the pit to the concentrator required the development of an ore tracking system. As a result, PTI developed a radio-frequency based material tracking system called SmartTag?. This system allows tracking of ore from its source through blasting, run-of-mine (ROM) pads, crushers, intermediate stockpiles, and finally into the concentrator. Using the SmartTag? system, definitive correlations can be made between the performance of the plant and the plant feed characteristics, including the domain from which the feed ore originated. Since its commercialization in 2007, SmartTag? has been used in the majority of PTI?s consulting projects and several permanent systems have been installed worldwide1. Successful applications of the SmartTag? system have encouraged development to allow the system to be used in a wider variety of plants, in particular plants with finer crushing and screening stages. This paper describes how the SmartTag? system is being utilized by PTI and the benefits being gained by its use in PIO projects, as well as presenting some case studies.

Jan 1, 2012

By R. S. McDonald

Auburn began operations 40 years ago with an office in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada, to provide services to Inco Limited. Over the next 40 years, operations expanded considerably, with projects being undertaken around the world, servicing the smelting and refining industry. Operating bases have been established in Canada, United States, Mexico, Chile, and Spain, with further growth expected to continue with an operating presence in South Africa. The Auburn Group of companies has serviced the smelting and refining industry for over 35 years. Auburn services a variety of metallurgical plants, and our worldwide experience has gathered considerable knowledge on industry processes and maintenance solutions. Today, the ?Business of Smelting? tackles demanding challenges, and operators search for opportunities and solutions to improve smelter maintenance, reduce operating costs, and decrease downtime. The Auburn Group has developed project teams, technologies, and equipment that provide specialised and innovative solutions to the non-ferrous metal industry to help address these challenges. Our Furnace Services team offers a variety of repair and maintenance services for metallurgical furnaces. Our specialised team has proven methods for completing projects quickly and safely. Our worldwide experience includes turnkey project management, construction, and various scopes of work for demolition and refractory repairs on all types of smelting and refining furnaces. Auburn developed the Results FirstTM programme to provide optimized solutions and results for smelter projects. The programme utilises a proven three-step model for improved results for schedule, budget, safety, and ramp-up to production. Our experienced Project Management teams can handle the planning and construction management of capital projects and plant shutdowns. Our projects have involved smelter/refinery modifications, oxygen plant installations, and sulphuric acid plant audits and maintenance. Our Equipment & Products division supplies specialised equipment and products, which are used in the metals industry for plant maintenance tasks. Our capability to design unique equipment, combined with our ability to source products worldwide, makes us a useful resource to find the best-suited equipment to meet the work-site demands. We specialise in custom remote-control units to handle specific maintenance solutions for smelters and refineries, and custom equipment designs for catalyst handling for Acid Plant maintenance. Our extensive knowledge of and experience with industrial technologies allows us to provide a wide range of Industrial Services. These services include vacuuming, high-pressure water blasting, chemical cleaning, pelletizing, dredging, ore bin clearing, roaster repairs, baghouse/ESP services, and manpower supply for both industrial plants and mines. Auburn?s combined strength of personnel experience, knowledge of industry processes, innovative project methods, and equipment technology make Auburn a unique resource for problem solving on every facet of smelter operations.

Jan 1, 2006

By L. Schernikau, W. H. Smith

Oil, coal, and gas account for approximately 80% of global primary energy, but only a portion of total airborne CO2 eq (approx. 35% at GWP20 to 65% at GWP100), even though they account for 95% of total measured CO2 emissions. The benefits of these energy sources, as well as their related costs, are not all incorporated in current energy policy discussions. Global greenhouse gas policies must include documented changes in measured airborne CO2 eq to avoid spending large amounts of public funds on ineffective or sub-optimal policies. The authors examined airborne CO2, which is less than half of emitted CO2, as well as reported CH4 emissions and the global warming potential of CH4 as published by the IPCC for coal and natural gas. The surprising conclusion is that surfaced-mined coal appears ‘better for the climate’ than the average natural gas, and all coal appears beneficial over LNG. Therefore, current CO2-only reduction policies and CO2 taxes are leading to unintended consequences and the switch from coal to natural gas, especially LNG, will not have the desired impact of reducing predicted future global warming; in fact, quite the contrary. A large portion of anthropogenic global warming is attributed by the IPCC and IEA to CH4, but it must be noted that CH4 emissions from natural sources and from agriculture account for approximately 40% and 25% of annual global CH4 emissions respectively. Energy accounts for about 20% of documented CH4 emissions. CO2 contributes only approximately 35% of annual airborne anthropogenic GHG emissions after accounting for CH4, over a 20-year horizon. At a 100-year horizon, the contribution of CO2 increases to approximately 60%. Energy policies that do not consider all GHG emissions along the entire value chain will lead to undesired economic and environmental distortions. All carbon taxation and CO2 pricing schemes are incorrect and need to be revised. At IPCC’s GWP20 an approximately 2%1 higher loss of CH4 across the value chain prior to combustion of natural gas versus coal will lead to ‘climate parity’ of coal with natural gas. According to public data, natural gas value chains have high CH4 and undocumented CO2 losses. On a global average, using only IEA-documented CH4 data, natural gas emits approximately 15% more CO2 eq than surface-mined coal, over a 20-year horizon. This difference will increase as the use of shale gas and LNG expands. Investors should support all energy systems in a manner that avoids an energy crisis, including intermittent renewable energy systems where they make sense. If CO2 emissions need to be reduced, one of the most effective ways would be to install ultra-supercritical power plants with CCUS technology. However, the undisputed benefits of increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere because of its promotion of photosynthesis and plant growth effects (fertilization) need to be considered in energy policy decisions as well. The authors suggest that future research and development should concentrate on reducing net emissions from fossil fuel power plants and providing cost-effective and reliable new conventional power generation capacity, utilizing clean coal and clean natural gas technology.

Mar 2, 2022