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By I. J. Geldenhuys

South Africa’s mining and metals industries have an illustrious history dating back to the Late Iron Age. We live in a complex and data-intensive world that has already fundamentally changed how we work and live. The outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 resulted in immeasurable suffering worldwide, but the crisis also accelerated many technological developments and altered the way we think about, and experience, technology and work. Problem-solving requires new and rapidly changing skills to manage the data tsunami. Whether at the rock face or on the processing plant, the fundamentals have not changed, although how we interact with minerals and their properties has changed dramatically. Sustainable processing and design are non-negotiable if we genuinely want to achieve the aim of the cradle-to-cradle principle. As we venture forth, what can scientists, engineers, technologists, and mathematicians learn from history? History is data presented in a context; sometimes, the context is also important. We exist in an age of data, with most of the world’s data created in only the past two years. History can enhance our understanding of the present and enhance our future outcomes. Lessons from history can help provide insights into making ethical and sustainable choices related to technology or engineering in the mining and metallurgical industry. Shifting the perspective of mining and metallurgy professionals from a narrow focus on complex technical solutions towards a broader context for problem-solving and designs that includes the entire ecosystem is crucial. In other words, using or reflecting on historical process development is, at its core, systems thinking.

Sep 1, 2021

By A. Y. Senchenkoa, Y. V. Kulikov

The relationships revealed between ore hardness and specific energy consumed by crushing and grinding are described in the paper. A comparison of key technical and economical parameters of SAG and HPGR circuits is made, based on testing of several ore types for greenfield projects. The comparison of results make it possible to estimate efficiency of the technologies application, depending on ore hardness and taking into account potential risks for a circuit under design. Keywords: Comminution circuits, SAG, HPGR, test results

Jan 1, 2020

By J. Hadjigeorgiou, G. Knox

Since their introduction in 2010, paddled energy-absorbing rockbolts have been widely used in seismically active hard rock mines. This paper provides new data and reviews previous work to quantify the performance of paddled energy-absorbing rockbolts under controlled laboratory conditions. Of significance is the realization that the typical split location in impact tests, at the centre between two paddle anchor points can at best provide an upper limit value. This inherent variability in performance under different testing configurations should be acknowledged and taken into consideration in the design of ground support in seismic conditions. This paper discusses the reduction in capacity of paddled rockbolts as a function of loading angle from a maximum value during axial tests (0° loading angle) to the lowest value during pure shear (loading angle of 90°). A significant reduction in displacement capacity is observed as the loading angle changes between axial (0°) and 40°. Beyond a 40° loading angle up to shear (90°) loading the reduction in displacement capacity is less significant. Due to the variances in the capacity observed through the variance of the testing configuration: loading mechanism, direction of loading, location / presence of a discontinuity, it must be recognized that results from laboratory-based testing are not independent of the testing configuration. This should be acknowledged when extrapolating anticipated performance in the field.

Oct 9, 2024

By L. M. Tavares, H. A. Petit, P. P. Cavalcanti

Iron ore pellets experience degradation during handling due low energy impacts and stresses. These impacts lead to volume or surface breakage of the pellets, creating fine particles that accumulate along the process. Some of the particles are in contact with the air and are dragged as dust into the workplace or into the atmosphere. The aerodynamic size of the particles allows them to be potentially inhaled by the workers or to be carried to nearby communities. Dust emission becomes critical at specific locations, such as transfer chutes and stockpiles. This work models the dust generation that occurs in an iron ore pellet stockyard using a methodology that combines experiments to quantify the degradation of the pellets to mathematical modelling of the dust emission mechanisms in the stockyard. First, laboratory tests were used to characterise the amount of mass and the particle size distribution of the dust generated by degradation under controlled conditions. Second, the flow over a stockpile of an iron ore pellet company was simulated with the aid of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Third, semiempirical equations linked the data generated by simulations and laboratory tests to estimate the dust emission in the stockyard. Finally, results were validated with measured field data, obtained with a novel online measurement tool. Results suggest that the approach is able to predict dust emission with sufficient accuracy and can be used for further implementation in the management of operations and decision making in order to reduce the environmental impact of the process. Keywords: Iron ore pellets, abrasion, dust emission, mathematical modelling

Jan 1, 2020

By N. V. Moraka

Mining companies are required by law to improve representation of women on their boards. However, progress in this regard has been slow. Boards of directors play an important role in formulating corporate strategy, risk assessment, and effective governance for sustained financial performance. Although some women have successfully maintained board seats, others have been unable to do so. It is difficult to ascertain whether women are being appointed as tokens to satisfy social pressures, as little is known about the experiences of women board members in mining, which may inform or refute tokenism. In-depth interviews were conducted with 20 women and 16 men across six listed mining companies. Thematic data analysis revealed evidence of tokenism where recruitment to mining boards is compliance-based and is informally driven by influential directors. Adverse boardroom experiences that further confirmed tokenism were reported by women, such as disregarding their contributions, condescending behaviour, and limited influence in decision-making, while other women sought to validate their competence and oppose social exclusion. This study recommends that a strong Board Chair and nominations committee is critical to ensure sustainable recruitment of competent and suitably qualified women; and further foster a culture of inclusivity and valuing gender-diverse boards.

Dec 13, 2023

By J. N. Van der Merwe

"The probability of survival of coal pillars is a more rational indicator of stability than the safety factor. Over time, pillars undergo reduction in size by progressive scaling of the sidewalls. The probability of survival is therefore not constant but reduces over time. The rate of scaling can be quantified, and the reduction of the probability of survival as a function of time can therefore also be quantified. The paper describes the link between the factor of safety, probability of survival, and reduction of the probability of survival. Using the safety factor, probability of survival, and the time at which the probability of survival will reduce to 50% is proposed as a more rational method of evaluating pillar stability than the safety factor alone.IntroductionCoal pillar strength has long been the subject of research in South Africa and several other coal-producing countries. However, it began receiving serious attention only after the Coalbrook disaster in 1960. The most important outcomes of the initial investigations were the groundbreaking research by Salamon and Munro (1967) that resulted in the well-known power formula for pillar strength, and the work by Bieniawski (1969) that resulted in a linear formula for strength. The former approach was based on empirical back-analysis of failed and stable pillar cases, and the latter on in situ strength tests on large specimens.The Salamon and Munro (1967) formula has been widely used in South Africa and even adapted for application to hard rock pillars by researchers such as Hedley and Grant (1972).At the time of the initial work by Salamon and Munro, there were only 27 failed pillar cases suitable for analysis. It was not possible at the time to determine site- or seam-specific strength, and the result was a general formula for use in all seams in all mining districts. Since that time pillars have continued to fail and the database continued to grow – as of 2013, there were 85 cases in the database. Using the additional data, there have been a number of re-evaluations of the strength formula and it has also become possible to differentiate between the different mining seams and areas."

Jan 1, 2016

By R. E. Wilmot

The problem of corrosion of reinforcement in concrete structures is internationally recognized and represents the single biggest expenditure in the preservation of steel reinforced concrete structures. While the corrosion protection of the reinforcing steel is no substitute for design and the placement of good quality concrete, it does provide for a viable and economical extension of structural integrity and service life in the day-to-day and practical environment in which concrete structures are constructed. The mechanism of corrosion attack and consequent deterioration of reinforced concrete structures is well understood and documented. New structures can be designed and built to withstand corrosion. However, due to short-term economic restraints, many new reinforced concrete structures continue to suffer as a result of corrosion damage, which results from the corrosion of the steel reinforcing. This paper explores the economic and practical benefits offered by the application of hot dip galvanizing as a viable means of protecting reinforcing steel concrete structures. The paper also discusses technical misconceptions that exist about application and performance provided by the use of hot dip galvanized reinforcing steel.

Jan 1, 2007

By G. C. Lindeque

"A downward trend in tyre life on haul trucks at an open pit iron ore mine prompted an investigation into the current tyre management strategy in order to improve tyre life. ‘Best practice’ was compared to the current tyre management strategy at the mine to determine aspects that could be improved. Aspects that showed significant room for improvement included employee tyre awareness, tyre pressure maintenance, and road conditions. For each of these aspects a plausible alternative was suggested.A new tyre management strategy was formulated as a step-by-step guide on how to implement the proposed changes. Each step introduces new initiatives but at the same time builds on the previous step’s success. A sensitivity analyses was performed to determine the impact of the proposed changes, with the variables being the reduction in the percentage of premature tyre failure, and the reduction of the site wear rate.The ‘most likely’ scenario showed an increase in tyre life of 41% for the Komatsu 730 trucks and 105% for the CAT 777 trucks if the entire tyre management model is implemented. This would result in a possible annual saving related to tyre usage of R9.2 million. OverviewThe study focused on the tyre life on the main haul fleet at an open pit iron ore mine. The haul fleet consisted of 17 Komatsu 730 (180 t) haul trucks and 12 CAT 777 (90 t) haul trucks.The haulage operation consists entirely of tyre-based haul trucks. Five per cent of the total mining budget is related to tyre costs. Since 2012 there has been a steady decrease in tyre life as measured in operating hours (Figure 1) due to the high percentage of tyres that fail prematurely. In 2014 a total of 41% of all tyres failed prematurely and 61% were classified as ‘worn out’."

Jan 1, 2016

By S. Bradshaw, A. Mabentsela

"Physical and numerical modelling methods were followed to identify mechanism(s) for tundish slag entrainment in a bare tundish and one with a flow control device (FCD).The physical and numerical models made use of water and paraffin to model steel and slag respectively. Observations from the physical model showed that the steel-slag interface remains immobile in both cases. Entrained paraffin formed droplets approximately 1 mm in diameter. Results from both models (numerical and physical) showed that in both cases (bare and FCD case), areas of high entrained slag concentration exist near the inlet region. The entrained slag concentration decreases towards the tundish endwalls.Flow patterns and velocities tangential to the steel-slag interface from the numerical model showed that slag entrainment in both the bare tundish and tundish with a FCD possibly takes place via two mechanisms. First, the slag moves across the steel-slag interface via mass transfer; secondly small velocities tangential to the interface at depths greater than 10 mm below the interface carry the already ‘entrained’ slag into the bulk steel phase. These tangential flow patterns are dominant in the inlet region, hence the high concentration of entrained slag in this region. IntroductionThe tundish serves as the last metallurgical vessel through which steel passes before solidifying in the moulds. It is in the tundish that the last traces of non-metallic inclusions should be removed, otherwise the inclusions carry over to the moulds and cause defects in the steel product. In the tundish, the slag is less dense than the melt and thus resides on the top of the melt. The slag provides a sink into which the non-metallic inclusions float to and dissolve. The slag also protects the melt from air and heat loss. However, when slag is entrained in the melt as a result of increased turbulence or shearing at the steel-slag interface, slag can become a source of nonmetallic inclusions.Numerous studies on flow patterns in the tundish have been carried out since the introduction of the tundish. These studies were aimed at improving the flow characteristics in the tundish (Chattopadhyay, Isac, and Guthri, 2010; Cloete, 2014; Jha, Dash, and Kumar, 2001; Jha, Rao, and Dewan, 2008;"

Jan 1, 2017

By L. Godfrey, Z. Nontso, F. Magweregwede, B. Maphalala, S. Khan

The aim of this paper was to establish if mineral resource scarcity is a driver for South Africa to transition to a circular economy. The project objectives were achieved by investigating economically viable, and critical or strategic minerals remaining in South Africa, as well as resource scarcity, as a driver for South Africa to transition to a circular economy. The study found that some minerals in South Africa, such as iron ore, lead, manganese, gold, and cobalt have less than 50 years of economically viable mining remaining. At least 18 minerals can be classified indicatively as critical or strategic: aggregates, bauxite, chromite, cobalt, copper, gold, graphite, iron, limestone, lithium, manganese, nickel, phosphorous, platinum group metals, rare earth elements, silver, titanium, and vanadium. The classification was based on the minerals’ economic importance, supply risk, and potential use in the development and manufacturing of emerging technologies. The findings suggest that the scarcity of mineral resources is a critical driver for the country to transition to a circular economy. Other identified drivers include socio-economic factors, climate change commitments, and business objectives. All minerals are non-renewable resources and at risk of depletion, therefore sustainable extraction and use are critical. Priority should be directed at investigating circular economy opportunities and substitutes for commodities at risk of being depleted within the next 50 years. There is an opportunity for South Africa to transition from a minerals export-based model to one that promotes local mineral beneficiation and manufacturing of end products.

Mar 5, 2025

By D. H. Diering

Definition of mineral resources and reserves forms the basis for effective mine planning and reliable public reporting of mineral assets. Historically the mineral resource and reserves declaration process has been the domain of the geology and surveying disciplines, with the declaration of the reserves by the surveyor being based on the application of modifying factors to the declared resources available for mining. As part of an ongoing process to improve efficiency, reliability, and reproducibility of results, this approach has been revised and enhanced through the introduction of a revised process and reconciliation tools. The revised approach to reserve definition is based on the definition of scheduled resources, at an appropriate confidence estimate in the context of an approved business plan, over the anticipated life of the mineral asset being applied to define reserves. This planning and scheduling is developed, during the annual business planning process, by the mine planning department using tools such as CADSMine?. The scheduled area together with the application of revised modifying factors is tabulated in the BME (basic mine equation) and reflects the mine production plan over time. Simplification of the modifying factors to dilution and losses underpins the simple yet robust approach to improved definition of reserves in this process and in the basic resource to reserve equation (BR2RE). Dilution intrinsically affects grade but not metal content, whereas the losses reflect both the efficiency of mining and planning and are reflected in metal losses, area losses, or both. Reconciliation of the derived ?resource converted to reserve? area, (which is based on the business plan from CADSMine?), versus the ?resource available for mining?, (which is derived from Datamine?), underpins the robustness and auditability of the reserves declaration. This R&R accounting and reconciliation approach is transparent and facilitates interrogation of the logic and rationale of long-term business planning and project strategy. These numbers are processed and reported in the logic of the basic resource equation (BRE), which also addresses aspects such as white areas (future and historic), tail management, and partial extraction (non-scheduled pillars, etc.) in compliance with SAMREC definitions. Areas that do not have the necessary confidence and data support to be declared as resources find their space as pre-resource (outside the domain of public reporting), outlining existing potential for future extraction and reporting. Use of the BRE leads ultimately to a complete, refined accounting and reconciliation-oriented approach for all production entities. The revised resource and reserve process includes the discipline of mine planning as intrinsic to the definition and declaration of resources and reserves. Subsequent to the change in process, the resources and reserves have truly become the domain of the mineral resource management discipline. This paper defines the logic of the basic resource equations and outlines their application in the definition and reconciliation of mineral resources and reserves at Anglo American Platinum Limited.

Jan 1, 2012

By B. Mbuya, A. F. Mulaba-Bafubianda, J. M. Mvita

The paper explains the main effects of input leaching parameters, such as addition of a reducing agent, acidity, agitation, temperature, and leaching system potential, in relation to observed and predicted yields of sought-after cobalt. An artificial neural network coupled with graphical probability networks was developed wherein the abovementioned input parameters were used to predict the percentage of dissolved cobalt. Furthermore, similarities and differences between the Bayesian and neural network approaches in terms of their key outcomes are compared with respect to study of the dissolution of cobalt in sulfuric acid. Key results indicate that there is a need to use neural network results to predict conditions for dissolution of cobalt, while using Bayesian network to explain inferences about conditions of the input parameters, thereby achieving realistic predictions.

Jan 1, 2023

By R. Mumbi, M. Peart, E. Arinaitwe, B. Mbao, J. Zulu

Since 1925, xanthates have been widely used in sulfide flotation due to their low cost, ease of manufacture, and ability to float most value species. However, the industry's increasing need for safer and more selective alternatives, driven by low head grades, poor-quality, difficult-to-process ore with complex mineralogy, and stricter environmental regulations, has led to the development of Solvay's AERO® XR series of collectors. These custom-formulated products are based on greener chemistries and offer metallurgical benefits that are similar to or better than those of xanthates, without the safety concerns. Developed through Solvay's Flotation Matrix (FM) 100 approach, the XR series collectors are suitable for a wide range of applications, including the processing of Cu, Zn, and Cu-Ni, as well as the flotation of precious metals. This paper will highlight the differences between xanthates and XR series collectors, and present case studies of their successful commercial application at various global operations.

Jan 1, 2023

"Chairman: Professor E. P. PFLEIDER Rapporteur: Mr P. R. JANISCHPapers:Optimum design of an open pit by D. A. PhillipsAn open pit design system for stratiform ore bodies by L. A. J. Pronk van Hoogeveen, J. R. Cutland and M. WeirAn open pit design model by R. H. Robinson and N. B. PrennThe Chairman in opening the session highlighted the current situation in the United States of America where some 85 to 90 per cent of all mining (except for coal) is done by open pit methods, and where some 40 per cent of the coal is mined by open pit. The South African industry is, of course, dominated by the deeper level underground gold mines; however, with the aid of an extensive open-pit technology developed in other countries, South African companies arc continuing to explore possibilities of open-pit exploitation of base mineral, coal and diamond deposits. Several successful ventures are already in operation at Phalabora, Optimum Colliery, Kimberley and elsewhere, and South Africa is undoubtedly benefitting in this regard by drawing on the experience of others.The papers of this session were therefore particularly pertinent, particularly when viewed in conjunction with those presented at an earlier South African conference devoted specifically to open pit mining.Two themes dominated the discussion which followed presentation of the three papers at this session. The first related to the practicability of using the reported techniques as a tool for management, and their acceptability as such to mine management. This was, of course, not peculiar to this particular session, but rather the major point of debate over the entire conference.The second theme concerned the reliability of the initial drill hole data on which any open-pit design must necessarily be based. This gave added emphasis to the problem of practicability, for no management is likely to accept an elaborate pit design unless confidence can be placed in the ore reserve assessment.In noting these two features of the discussion, it should be remembered that all the three papers dealt largely with design and pre-planning; there was an unfortunate lack of papers or discussion on the subject of controlling the day-to-day mining of open pits, and this is an area where the potential impact which can be made by the computer is even greater.In introducing his paper, Mr D. A. Phillips pointed out that it was concerned only with optimization, and that it therefore assumed, firstly, an adequate subdivision of the orebody into ore blocks characterized by grade, rock type, structure, etc., and, secondly, an acceptable forecast of costs and mineral prices in order to generate a suitable profit matrix. However, programs dealing with these problems for both massive, disseminated and stratiform ore bodies are available to Roan Consolidated Mines. The method of optimization which he had described had been used on a region split into 28 000 blocks, for which the program used three hours of C.P.U. time on an IBM 360/40 computer. The computer design had provided a three per cent improve¬ment on a normal design of the same area."

Jan 1, 2014

By A. E. Landsberg, K. C. Corin, G. Stroebel, J. A. Miller, M. Becker, H. J. J. Gordon

Geometallurgy represents an integrated approach to mine planning and operation whereby the naturally occurring ore variability and its effects on all key downstream activities in the mine life cycle are considered. Process mineralogy is one of the key components of this integrated approach. This paper focuses on understanding some of the mineralogical variability across the Swartberg Cu-Pb-Zn sulfide ore in South Africa and its consequent effects on flotation performance. This process mineralogy project is motivated by the planned changeover and expansion of the Black Mountain Mines concentrator to process solely Swartberg ore compared to the run-of-mine blend currently being treated at the plant. Eight samples spanning the main lithological units of the ore body are described using quantitative mineral-textural data and bulk sulfide batch flotation performance to establish five process mineralogical or geometallurgical units comprising: quartz-pyroxmangite-magnetite, quartz-amphibolemagnetite, quartz-magnetite, garnet-magnetite-quartzite and mica-quartzite ores. Important mineralogical characteristics affecting Cu, Pb and Zn recovery, grade and selectivity specific to the different ore samples are discussed. Ultimately, the use of ore-specific process mineralogical and geometallurgical knowledge allows for better mine planning and plant optimisation. Keywords: Flotation, polymetallic base metal sulfide ore, process mineralogy, ore variability

Jan 1, 2020

By O. I. Rychkova, M. N. Sycheva, E. V. Poryadochnova, G. V. Sedelnikova

Deposits of copper-porphyry type occupy a leading position in the mineral resource base of the world copper industry. They are characterized by large and gigantic scales, often complex composition, their development is carried out in an open way. The raw material base of the Russian copper industry is mainly sulfide copper-Nickel and copper-pyrite ores. Exploration of copper-porphyry deposits and the creation of long-term large mining facilities on their basis is one of the most promising and priority tasks for the Russian industry. This task is especially acute for the copper enterprises of the Urals in connection with the depletion of copper - pyrite ore reserves. In recent years, Russia has carried out a large complex of studies on the composition and technology of processing of copper-porphyry ores of different subtypes. In this work the complex poor copper-molybdenum-gold ore of one of the deposits is investigated. The chemical and mineral composition of the ore containing 0.49% copper, 0.020% molybdenum, 0.39 g/t gold, 5.85 g/t silver was determined. The forms of finding metals and their distribution by size classes are established. The dependence of extraction of metals into concentrates of collective-selective flotation on the size of ore grinding, pH of the medium, reagent consumption is shown. Under optimal flotation conditions, copper concentrate with 18.6% copper content and 92.32% extraction and molybdenum concentrate with 21.5% molybdenum content and 73.4% extraction were obtained. With a high concentration of molybdenum in selective flotation products, it is possible to conclude about the expected molybdenum concentrate with a content of 45% and a recovery of 70%. The associated extraction of gold and silver into copper concentrate is 76.8 % and 73.4%. Keywords: Collective-selective flotation, copper, molybdenum, porphyry ore, grinding, pH, reagents

Jan 1, 2020

By H. Ogasawara

Information on rock stress is important for safe mining in seismically active ground. On a major gold mine, a few tens of crews are continuously conducting geological drilling with small pneumatic machines. However, stress measurements are not often carried out in South African deep-level gold mines. One of the reasons is the drilling diameter that overcoring requires, which is much larger than the diameters used in regular geological drilling, e.g. Boart Longyear Metre Eater, which drills AQ or BQ holes. Larger diameter holes result in slower drilling advance, more load in transportation and handling at sites, and higher cost. In order to enable overcoring in BX size (60 mm diameter), we modified the compact conical-ended borehole overcoring (CCBO) technique that has been suggested by International Society for Rock Mechanics (ISRM) and was originally designed for NX drilling (76 mm diameter). With a single overcoring, the 3-D stress tensor can be determined. We tested this modified method at a depth of about 3 km at Moab Khotsong mine in South Africa. We worked with drilling crew who usually work at geological drilling with the Metre Eater. In January 2011, we tried using regular geological drilling tools (a sequence of a normal BX bit, reamer, and rod) without success. In August and September 2011, introducing stabilizers and thin BX bits, we succeeded. We could complete a cycle of procedures necessary for an overcoring, including shaping the borehole-end conically, glueing a 16-element strain cell, and overcoring, within 2.5 hours. Only 10 cm overcoring is needed, which increases the chance of successful overcoring in heavily fractured conditions. This modified method is suitable for up-dip holes to depths of 10-15 m from tunnels, and has the potential to be widely used at the initial stage of geological exploration drilling at many localities.

Jan 1, 2012

By D. M. Walters

To achieve safe and healthy working conditions in shaft sinking operations, ventilation, and where necessary cooling, must be provided. These requirements are considered for sinking vertical, sub-vertical and decline shafts. Regulatory requirements, determining air volumes and amount of cooling required, the various ventilation methods used such as force, exhaust, twin columns, air reversal using four gate systems and the equipment required to achieve this, are discussed. Consideration is also given to the sinking of single and twin declines using diesel equipment, calculating the air volumes required to dilute pollutants and the various methods for achieving this. Also discussed is the importance of having early ventilation design input to the overall design of the mine. In many cases ventilation can be the prime determinant for the size and configuration of the shafts or declines that have to be sunk.

Jan 1, 2009

By L. Forbes, G. Forbes, J. Wang

Bubble size measurement is a vital part of flotation system analysis and diagnostics. Over the years, a great many different bubble size analysis tools have been developed. However, all of them rely on ex-situ measurement and in-pulp sampling techniques. This paper evaluates the Mettler Toledo ParticleView™ Measurement probe as a novel method for in-situ bubble size measurement. This device is then compared to the conventional Anglo Platinum Bubble Sizer (StoneThree). It was found that the in-situ bubble size analysis technology appears to be a more user-friendly and reliable option for determining bubble size in flotation. However, the current instrument design is not suited to industrial applications. Keywords: Bubble size measurement, bubble coalescence, PVM probe

Jan 1, 2020

By A. T. van Zyl, M. Mthenjane, M. J. Cole

Growing global concern over the impacts of climate change, attributable largely to fossil fuel energy sources, has led to the widely shared goal for a ‘just transition’ to cleaner energy and reduced dependence on carbon-based fuels. As the world’s 14th biggest CO2 emitter and being particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, South Africa must embark on a just transition pathway. This paper reviews expected coal mine closures and associated community vulnerabilities and local governance challenges in South Africa. Decommissioning schedules for all coal-fired power stations and operating coal mines are plotted, and 69 mining host communities and 21 municipalities are mapped, classified, and described. Community socio-economic profiles are measured using a set of SDG indicators and census data and municipalities assessed through financial audits. Our research shows that five coal-fired power plants (8.9 GW) and 15 coal mines (29.5 Mt/a) will probably close by 2030, and a further four plants (14 GW) and 23 mines (106 Mt/a) by 2040. Thus, the shift to cleaner energy will likely occur without the premature closures implied by the just transition. The impact of mine closure on the 2.5 million residents of host communities will be significant, particularly as levels of income, employment, and education are already very low and many municipalities are in financial distress. The South African approach to the just transition needs to take local realities into account and the narrative must support an effective transition that does not undermine energy security and economic growth.

Jun 5, 2023