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By Michael Gobla

"Since 1994 the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) has used risk analysis to evaluate dams. Risk considers both the likelihood of failure and the expected consequences should failure occur. Risk analysis relies on the detailed formulation and critical analysis of all possible potential failure modes. Potential failure modes are formulated by describing the sequence of events that must occur to result in failure, where failure is defined as the uncontrolled release of the impounded reservoir. Failure occurs in response to loadings such as water seepage through a dam (static forces), shaking from an earthquake (dynamic forces), sudden flood inflows (hydrologic forces), or accidental overfilling (operational errors). Reclamation has, to a limited extent, applied risk analysis to inactive and abandoned mines to evaluate tailings dams, pit lakes and flooded underground mines. Case histories of potential failure mode analysis, as applied to mine impounded water, illustrate what critical technical information is needed to determine if failure is likely, what the consequences of failure are likely to be, and what are the highest risks that should be addressed first.IntroductionImpounded water and high water content wastes at mining and industrial processing sites are potential threats to public safety and the environment. Recent failures such as the TVA Kingston flyash impoundment failure in Tennessee in 2008 (4.1 million m3 or 5.4 million cu yd) release, the Mt. Poly Tailings Dam failure in British Columbia in 2014 (4.4 million m3 or 5.8 million cu yd) release, and the Samarco Fundao Tailings Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 (59 millon m3 or 78 million cu yd) release have renewed attention to this issue. Potential risks from impounded water at mining and industrial sites originate not only from tailing dams, but also from water in process ponds and conveyance pipelines, sediment retention dams, water retention dams, mine pit lakes and flooded underground mine workings.Conventional water retaining dams also have a record of failure. Notable examples of failure include Vajont Dam in Italy in 1963 (2,600 lives lost), Banqiao and Shimantan Dams in China in 1975 (171,000 lives lost), and Machhu-II Dam in India (10,000 lives lost). After the 1976 Teton Dam failure in Idaho, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) established a Dam Safety Program. By 1984, the agency developed and began using risk analysis methods. BOR operates and maintains an inventory of hundreds of aging dams which were designed and constructed over a period of 100 years. Many of these facilities were designed and constructed prior to the development and adaptation of modern soil mechanics in dam engineering. Diligent observational monitoring, detailed site investigations and the application of risk evaluation to the BOR dam inventory has identified many deficiencies resulting in significant demands on available funding for remediation efforts. The application of risk analysis has allowed the agency to rank sites by risk. By giving priority of remedial efforts to high-risk sites, significant improvements to dam safety have been achieved."

Dec 1, 2016

By M. Gobla

"Since 1994 the Bureau of Reclamation has used risk analysis to evaluate dams. Risk considers both the likelihood of failure and the expected consequences should failure occur. Risk analysis relies on the detailed formulation and critical analysis of all possible potential failure modes. Potential failure modes are formulated by describing the sequence of events that must occur to result in failure, where failure is defined as the uncontrolled release of the impounded reservoir. Failure occurs in response to loadings such as water seepage through a dam (static forces), shaking from an earthquake (dynamic forces), sudden flood inflows (hydrologic forces), or accidental overfilling (operational errors). Reclamation has applied risk analysis methods to inactive and abandoned mines to evaluate tailings dams and flooded underground mines. Case histories of potential failure mode analysis as applied to mine impounded water illustrates what critical technical information is needed to determine if failure is likely, what the consequences of failure are likely to be, and what are the highest risks that should be addressed first. INTRODUCTION Impounded water, and high water content wastes, at mining and industrial processing sites are potential threats to public safety and the environment. Recent failures such as the TVA Kingston flyash impoundment failure in Tennessee in 2008 (5.4 million yd3 released), the Mt Poly Tailings Dam failure in British Columbia in 2014 (5.8 million yd3 released), and the Smarco Fundao Tailings Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 (78 million yd3 released) has renewed attention to this issue. Potential risks from impounded water at mining and industrial sites originates not only from tailing dams, but also from water in process ponds and conveyance pipelines, sediment retention dams, water retention dams, mine pit lakes, and flooded underground mine workings. Conventional water retaining dams also have a record of failure. Notable examples of failure include Vajont Dam in Italy in 1963 (2,600 lives lost), Banqiao and Shimantan Dams in China in 1975 (171,000 lives lost), and Machhu-II Dam in India (10,000 lives lost). After the 1976 Teton Dam failure in Idaho, the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) established a Dam Safety Program. By 1984 the agency developed and began using risk analysis methods. Reclamation operates and maintains an inventory of hundreds of aging dams which were designed and constructed over a period of one hundred years. Many of these facilities were constructed using engineering design and construction methods which would not be considered good practice according to present day standards. Diligent observational monitoring, detailed site investigations, and the application of risk evaluation to the BOR dam inventory has identified many deficiencies resulting in significant demands on available funding for remediation efforts. The application of risk analysis has allowed the agency to rank sites by risk. By giving priority of remedial efforts to high risk sites, significant improvements to dam safety have been achieved. BOR has also applied risk analysis to evaluate and reclaim inactive and abandoned mining and industrial sites. The application of risk analysis methods in the mining industry is not new, the methodology was transferred to the mining industry more than 15 years ago as discussed in ICOLD Bulleting 121 (ICOLD, 2001), yet failures persist. This paper is meant to convey the lessons learned from BOR’s use of risk analyses in its work on mine sites."

Jan 1, 2017

By Harvey W. Parker

The underground industry is challenged by many complex technical and non-technical issues and risks. The most obvious of these are the traditional technical issues that we usually try to address with risk management techniques. However, there are many other non-technical risks that our projects face on a daily basis which we often fail to fully recognize or appreciate. This paper addresses some of the less-technical broad-based risks in order to put them into perspective with the technical risks we face day to day in underground planning, design and construction. The good news is that Risk Management techniques are not always about bad things. For obvious reasons Risk Management is always thought of in terms of the ?downside? of risk (i.e., the identification and mitigation of things that can go wrong). On the contrary, there is an ?upside? of things that might go better than expected. Fortunately, if a deliberate effort is made, the same principles and techniques that our industry uses in Risk Management can be applied toward identifying and quantifying the Opportunities and Benefits that might occur. In this way, the process of conducting risk management programs can not only identify the downside risk but can be used to identify and direct projects to take advantage of the upside of uncertainty (i.e., Opportunities as they arise). This beneficial aspect of risk management programs will be highlighted in this paper together with the importance of the non-technical issues.

Jan 1, 2008

By L. H. Pye

For large mining sites in the west, the traditional method for performing an ecological risk assessment (ERA) provides little useful information for risk managers faced with selecting and designing sound remedial options. Current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk assessment guidance largely supports quantitative risk characterization of individual species as surrogates for population and ecosystem-level effects. Developing a work plan for investigating and remediating ecosystem-level changes potentially caused by large-scale historic mining/smelting contaminant release requires a decision process that incorporates a more holistic ecosystem management approach. Some of the most wasteful efforts associated with mine site ecological risk assessments arise when the risk analysis and data collection programs are not specifically linked up-front to the risk manager's decision needs. The following paper discusses the importance of employing a decision-based, ecosystem management framework when conducting ecological risk assessments at large mining sites. A case study of an ecological risk assessment currently being performed at a large New Mexico copper mine site is presented.

Jan 1, 1999

By W. P. Blacutt

A financial-economic model incorporating physical, market and policy variables has been developed for mining investment in Bolivia. Additional risk criteria emanating from political instability, new mining legislation, recent environmental regulations and a new minerals taxation system are accounted for and are integrated into the investment decision model. Results of the model indicate that geologic and market variables have the dominant effect on the investment-worth function. Among policy variables, exchange rate and taxation policies have the most significant influence. Depreciation allowance for infrastructure development has negligible weight in the investment-worth function. The business structure of the firm considering investing in the Bolivian Polymetallic Project, is found to be an instrumental factor in the investment-worth outcome.

Jan 1, 1995

By W. P. Blacutt

A financial-economic model incorporating physical, market, and policy variables is developed for mining investment in Bolivia. Additional risk criteria emanating from political instability. new mining legislation, recent environmental regulations, and a new minerals taxation system are accounted for and are integrated into the investment decision model. Results of the model indicate that geologic and market variables have the dominant effect on the investment-worth function. Among policy variables, exchange rate and taxation policies have the most significant influence. Depreciation allowance for infrastructure development has negligible weight in the investment-worth function. The business structure of the firm considering investing in the Bolivian Polymetallic Project is found to be an instrumental factor in the investment-worth outcome. Specifically, undiversified mining companies whose operations exclude zinc production as the primary source of revenue would benefit most from adoption of this project.

Jan 1, 1993

By Robin G. Burn

An orebody is a mining company's greatest asset; without it there can be no mine. Yet, by the very nature of the industry, orebodies are wasting assets whose progressive depletion must be balanced by continued discovery of new ore to enable both the industry to survive and the raw material demands of society to be satisfied. Although mineral exploration may be viewed as any activity which leads to the creation of investment opportunities in the mineral industry, ultimately new ore can only be generated through discovery. The process leading to discovery may involve a long chain of independent and interdependent events. It will almost always be repetitious and require the examination of many prospects or trials before the goal, a commercially successful discovery, is satisfied. Long term survival of a mining company through regular discovery of new ore, requires a continued commitment of funds and effort to mineral exploration.

Jan 1, 1984

By Carlos Álvarez, Sergio Sánchez, Michael Mains, Giuseppe Gaspari

Extensive record of tunnels excavated with SEM (sequential excavation method) in swelling grounds exists in literature: global experiences include successful tunnelling both through clayey and rock masses with time dependant deformation. However, TBM (tunnel boring machine) use in swelling conditions with high water pressures (EPB, earth pressure balance, machines or slurry shields) is much less documented, considering the lower expected impact due to the limited stress relief and operations under saturated conditions. This paper summarizes a number of studies conducted as part of the risk assessment and detailed design of a large diameter TBM tunnel in variable and challenging geological conditions. The tunnel alignment is driven through mixed face conditions including swelling soils and clayey soft rocks, prone to intense time-dependent deformations. The paper also describes the approach adopted for the design of pre-cast segmental lining subject to both swelling actions and high seismic loads, due to the regional active tectonic faults. The design of this lining included a detailed parametric study performed to handle the existing uncertainties related with ground characterization, potential deconnement and complex geological congurations.

Jun 23, 2024

By K. Komnitsas

This paper presents the main environmental assessment techniques and indicators that can be used a) for the establishment of a sustainable development framework and b) for the evaluation of the environmental performance within the mining sector. Reference is made to techniques as environmental risk and impact assessment, life cycle assessment, cost benefit analysis and best practical environmental option assessment that can be used as tools to assess environmental impacts of processes, activities and products in the mining sector. In addition, the issue of environmental indicators, covering operational, management and environmental areas, that provide valuable information regarding both the environmental performance of a mining company and its efforts to influence this performance towards sustainability is discussed.

Jan 1, 2003

By I. Cameron-Clarke

This paper describes the design of a wellfield to provide a water supply for a new mine in southern Africa. A hydrogeological investigation was conducted that included the drilling and test pumping of eight wells located within a highly jointed pyroxenite aquifer. The wellfield was designed using a simple probabilistic analysis. This approach allowed the variability of the aquifer parameters to be taken into account. A risk assessment analysis was then carried out to evaluate the level of assurance that a reliable water supply could be provided by the wellfield. The analysis was also used to assess the effects of supplementing the water supply by pumping from nearby flooded workings.

Jan 1, 1992

By Richard Wilson

In the early 1970s, it became a concern that exposure to the mineral fibers associated taconite ore processed in Silver Bay, Minnesota would cause asbestos-related disease including gastrointestinal cancer. At that time data gaps existed which have now been significantly reduced by further research. To further our understanding of the types of airborne fibers in Silver Bay we undertook a geological survey of their source the Peter Mitchell Pit, and found that there are no primary asbestos minerals at a detectable level. However we identified two non-asbestos types of fibrous minerals in very limited geological locales. Air sampling useful for risk assessment was done to determine the type, concentrations and size distribution of the population of airborne fibers around Silver Bay. Approximately 80% of the airborne fibers have elemental compositions consistent with cummingtonite-grunerite and the remaining 20% have elemental compositions in the tremolite-actinolite series. The mean airborne concentration of both fiber types is less than 0.00014 fibers per milliliter that is within the background level reported by the World Health Organization. We calculate the risk of asbestos-related mesothelioma and lung cancer using a variety of different pessimistic assumptions. (i) that all the non-asbestos fibers are as potent as asbestos fibers used in the EPA-IRIS listing for asbestos; with a calculated risk of asbestos-related cancer for environmental exposure at Silver Bay of 1 excess cancer in 28,500 lifetimes (or 35 excess cancers per 1,000,000 lifetimes) and secondly that taconite associated fibers are as potent as chrysotile the least potent form of asbestos. The calculated risk is less than 0.77 excess cancer case in 1,000,000 lifetimes. Finally, we briefly review the epidemiology studies of grunerite asbestos (amosite) focusing on the exposure conditions associated with increased risk of human mesothelioma. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Risk; Fibers; Particles; Taconite; Asbestos; Exposures

Jan 1, 2007

By N. Demirel

Estimating productivity of a walking dragline is of paramount concern to mining engineers and mine planners. Risk based evaluation of the dragline productivity is a valuable tool to estimate the dragline?s long-term performances and availabilities, to develop preventive maintenance plans, and to make future projections about the machine?s performance. This paper aims to provide mining professionals with an overview of risk assessment methodology for productivity of two walking draglines, PAGE 736 and MARION 7820, which have been operating in Tunçbilek open cast coal mine of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Turkey. The study encompasses three main stages as: (i) acquiring of monthly maintenance records, operating hours, mechanical and electrical failure hours between 1998 and 2009; (ii) reliability modeling using mean time between failure data; (iii) determining hazard rate and consequences to compute risk associated with dragline productivity. The results showed that that Page 736 (20 yd3) is seemed to be more reliable and less likely to fail when compared with Marion 7820 (40 yd3). The operating hours without failure range from 41 to 51 hours with 50 percent reliability.

Jan 1, 2011

By H. S. Duzgun, N. Demirel

Estimating productivity of a walking dragline is of paramount concern to mining engineers and mine planners. Risk based evaluation of the dragline productivity is a valuable tool to estimate the dragline’s long-term availability, to develop preventive maintenance plans and to make future projections about the dragline’s performance. This paper aims to provide mining professionals with an overview of risk assessment methodology for productivity of two walking draglines, Page 736 and Marion 7820, which have been operating in the Tunçbilek openpit coal mine of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Turkey. The study encompasses three main stages: (i) acquiring of monthly maintenance records, operating hours, mechanical and electrical failure hours between 1998 and 2009; (ii) reliability modeling using mean time between failure data and (iii) determining hazard rate and consequences to compute risk associated with dragline productivity. The results showed that that Page 736 (15.29 m3) seemed to be more reliable and less likely to fail when compared with Marion 7820 (30.58 m3). The operating hours without failure range from 41 to 51 hours with 50% reliability.

Jan 1, 2011

By Z. A. Md-Nor

Risk management is an established loss-control methodology that has been applied successfully in many industries. Recently, interest in this structured approach has grown in the mining industry. The main objective of this research was to develop a risk-assessment process, which is a part of risk management, that can be used by the U.S. mining industry to more thoroughly characterize risks associated with haul truck-related fatalities. The assessment is based on historical data obtained from the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) investigation reports, which includes 113 fatal incidents that occurred from 1995 through 2006. The risk-assessment process used in this research involves the following basic steps: identification of the risks, risk analysis and risk evaluation. The preliminary hazard assessment (PHA) method is used in identifying and quantifying risks. Risk levels are then developed using a pre-established risk matrix that ranks them according to probability and severity. The resulting assigned risk value can then be used to prioritize control strategies. This paper is a part of a detailed study on risk assessment for equipment-related fatalities in mining sponsored by the Western U.S. Mining Safety and Health Training and Translation Center.

Jan 1, 2008

By F. Calizaya

A booster fan is an underground ventilation device installed in the main airstream to handle the total quantity of air circulated to one or more working districts. It is installed in a permanent stopping and equipped with airlock doors, a monitoring system and interlocking devices between the main fan and the booster fan. When adequately installed, a booster fan can be used to reduce the main fan pressure, reduce leakage and decrease the power consumption. However, an inadequate installation can increase the likelihood of mine fies and recirculation of air contaminants. This study identifies hazards associated with the operation and maintenance of booster fans. It analyzes the accompanying risks and recommends control measures to reduce those risks to acceptable levels. The ventilation network of an existing coal mine was updated to include a booster fan. The hazards associated with the operation of this fan were identified, the risks analyzed and the esponse to each failure mode established.

Mar 1, 2014

By K. Oraee

Mining Ventures are considered as high risk projects and therefore managing the risks is inevitable. Risk assessment is an important part of the complex process of risk management, hence applying appropriated and practical methods for ranking the risks associated with projects, can help to perform a better risk management. In this research the applicability of using Techniques for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method for risk ranking in an underground mine, extracting by block caving method, was studied. Via this method, the risk associated with reserve estimation ranked as the first while in conventional method (P-I Matrix method) located in the sixteenth. Also there were significant differences in ranks of the other risks. Considering the more criteria, with different weights, in comparison with conventional methods, the results comprised from TOPSIS method are more reliable. By implementing this method risks are ranked better and more realistic and consequently then will be managed more efficient.

Jan 1, 2011

By Nilufer Kursunoglu

Despite being crucial for meeting the world’s energy demands, coal mining operations present considerable health risks, especially when it comes to exposure to coal dust. Longwall coal mining, an advanced technique, has considerably enhanced production but made dust control more difficult. Due to its explosive nature, coal dust continues to be a serious and dangerous concern in the industry despite developments in safety technology. This study aims to comprehensively assess the risk of coal dust explosions by integrating fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis methodologies, offering precise risk ratings for various root causes. A fuzzy risk matrix was developed to assign exact risk ratings to identified root causes. Additionally, a Pareto chart was used to identify the main reasons and suggest particular preventive measures. 17 significant causes were determined for underground coal mines based on the study’s methodology, and some preventive measures were suggested. In accordance with fuzzy risk rating values, root causes were divided into six categories. The root hazard with the highest risk rating was identified as ‘accumulation of inflammable gas/gases’. The proposed approach was used to examine incidents caused by coal dust explosions in Turkish coal mines in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of combining the fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis for assessing coal dust explosions. This study gives not only a solid framework for risk assessment but also critical information for classifying the risks associated with coal mine dust explosions. The results highlight the critical necessity for proactive and preventive actions to reduce the hazards of coal dust explosions and protect the safety of mining workers.

Nov 16, 2023

By A. Haghighat

A risk analysis on mine fires for all U.S. underground coal mines from 2000–2012 was completed to identify locations that have a high risk for fire incidents. The data for this analysis was extracted from the Mine Safety and Health Administration’s (MSHA) mine fire accident reports database. After identifying fire incidents from this database, a risk matrix was developed for underground locations that showed a significant propensity for fire incidents. This matrix associates the hazards and risks with the severity and frequency of their consequences at each location. These significant mine areas will be the concentration of future studies in fire behavior, suppression techniques, and simulation methodologies. INTRODUCTION Fires in underground mines pose significant hazards to personnel because of inherent restrictions to movement and limitations to egress routes. Despite improvements, mine fires remain serious hazards in underground coal mine. In order to better mitigate the risks from fire hazards in the modern underground mining environment, a better understanding of where fire events occur must be gained. The following paper presents an investigation on the number of fatal and non-fatal incidents in underground coal mines fires from 2000 to 2012. Three phases of risk assessment (i.e., risk identification, estimation, and evaluation) were applied to the recorded fire events from the MSHA incident database that occurred during this time period. Using this process, a fire hazard was first defined. This definition was then used to identify any incidents that had occurred as a result of the defined hazards. The seriousness of the injuries and damages were finally quantified for each incident though an estimate of severity and frequency and then aggregated according to underground location (ISO, 1999; Van Duijne, 2008). Using this approach, locations prone to incidents resulting from fire hazards were first identified. The risk for the occurrence a fire incident in general was then estimated for each of the identified locations. The results of this assessment will be used to improve fire simulation techniques for the identified, high risk underground locations. RISK IDENTIFICATION A risk for this assessment was defined as any single occurrence of a fire initiated by the ignition of gas, dust, or electricity. Each recorded occurrence of such an event in the MSHA incident database was counted as a single fire incident. Both non-fatal incidents that were reportable but did not result in a fatality and fatal incidents that fell into the aforementioned criteria were counted. Incidents in the MSHA database that were already classified as “generic” were not considered. The remaining incidents were then totaled and aggregated according to the underground location in which they occurred. In previous studies, a number of locations, which are listed in Table 1, were highlighted as high fire hazard areas (McDonald et al, 1980; Pomroy et al, 1995; De Rosa, 2004). These locations were used to group the fire incidents extracted from the MSHA incident database. The compiled numbers of non-fatal and fatal underground coal fire incidents from 2000 to 2012 are displayed in Table 1.

Jan 1, 2019

By O. D. Staman

The risk assessment project examines the likelihood of inorganic contaminants from copper dump-leaching operations to contaminate domestic water supplies. The project examines contaminant transport by modeling contaminant movement from the base of a leach pile through the unsaturated zone and into the saturated zone. The modeling effort is unique in that it models infiltration, contaminant transport in the unsaturated and saturated zone combined with geochemical modeling of the unsaturated zone. The project incorporates probability theory to reflect the uncertainty of hydrogeologic parameters.

Jan 1, 1994

By Steve Kral

The list of environmental issues facing industry in general, and the mining industry in particular, has placed greater emphasis on the concept of risk assessment and risk management. In informal terms, risk can be defined as the chance of injury, loss or damage. More formally, it is defined as the probability of an occurrence and its consequences. In simple terms, risk assessment involves three questions: What can go wrong? How probable is it to go wrong? If it goes wrong, what are the consequences? Experts on the subject of risk assess¬ment and management met in St. Louis, MO in October 1992 to discuss the extensive and innovative technology that has been developed in this arena. Each agreed that a consistent framework can be used to approach risk assessment/ management considerations in siting and design alternatives, as well as when considering financial aspects of mine development. And the environmental planning process for mines, as well as planning for operation through closures, will rely more heavily on risk assessment and management techniques. Risk assessment is a tool to assist engineers, scientists and managers make better, defensible operational decisions. A realistic and probabilistic risk analysis, coupled with a sound financial model, can combine a large set of alternatives and criteria to arrive at a defensible decision. Organizers of this regional SME conference believe that mining professionals should become fully conversant with risk assessment techniques and approaches because this arena provides opportunities to develop more rational decision-making techniques. Current health risk assessments rely heavily on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approaches. Several speakers and papers show how this approach has been applied to a variety of topics. Two major advantages come forward when applying risk assessment techniques to environmental clean-up options for contaminated sites. They are the selection of practical options and cost-effective alternatives. A probabilistic risk assessment provides results that can be directly related to clean-up costs. It has been shown that small reductions in risk are obtained for large increases in cost after a certain threshold value is reached. A preferred, practical clean-up alternative that provides permanent solutions can be selected based on a probabilistic assessment. Here are summaries of some of the papers presented at the meeting.

Jan 1, 1993