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By Robert L. Randall

The mineral industries have a continuing need for market forecasting and analysis for a variety of purposes, among which are organization and control of the sales effort, financial and corporate planning, and evaluation of the anticipated revenue from investment in proposed projects. For anything beyond the simplest extrapolation, some kind of economic reasoning or analysis is called for, which may or may not be incorporated into a formal or quantitative model. The principles described here apply to most of the commercially significant minerals and metals. The examples are drawn largely from the copper market, as it is the one with which I have the most practical experience. Practical forecasting is the process of analysis and synthesis from three categories of knowledge: facts and statistics, theory, and practical knowledge and informed opinion. Although many attempts have been made to build forecasts on only one of these three pillars, none has been successful as an operating procedure because of the lack of balance. There are no facts about the future-only about the present and the past. Facts can illuminate the future, but the future can be described only in terms of probability or more or less likely states of affairs-not as a continuous extension of the past and present. Likewise, theory, although useful as an organizing discipline and for providing a methodology of analysis, is inadequate for the complexities of reality. This is especially so when there is feedback between plans and forecasts to produce a new outcome and when there are significant elements of unpredictable free will, such as presidential jawboning or foreign policy considerations. Such elements are difficult to accommodate in neat theories, although they must certainly be reflected in the forecasts. Pure opinion frequently suffers from both a lack of-disciplined reasoning and the presence of biases or self-interest. While the future is unknown, it tends to cast its shadow before it; hence, forecasting is the art and science of positioning oneself so that the shadow becomes visible to the forecaster.

Jan 1, 1979

By A. Wahab Khair

There are a number of factors, including mine geometry, local geology, geotechnical properties of overburden materials, surface topography, sequence of overburden strata, and extraction rate, affecting characteristics of surface subsidence imposed by large underground excavation. Among the factors, the first three have the major impact on magnitude and area of influence of final subsidence. Hence, a model has been developed, considering mine geometry and geologic and geotechnical properties of the associated area, to predict maximum possible subsidence and subsidence profile at any cross-section within the subsidence influence zone. Based on extensive field measurements and mechanics of strata behavior, under the action of overburden pressure in the vicinity of the large underground excavation, the vertical plane of influence zone has been divided into five areas: 1) excavated, 2) caved, 3) fractured, 4) highly deformed but continuous, and 5) subsided zones. In the final state of subsidence each area maintains a certain volume expansion/contraction, i.e. a factor which depends on geologic, geotechnical properties of overburden strata and state of stress within the subsidence trough. The cumulative volume expansion and contraction partially compensates for the extracted volume and the difference between the two is reflected as the subsided area in the form of the area within a curve defined by a probability function. The input parameters for the model are mine geometry (i.e. length and width of the panel), depth of cover, and geologic and geotechnical properties of overburden strata (i.e. percentage of hardrock, sandstone and limestone, and soft rock, shale within the overburden strata and Rock Quality Designation). The model calculates angle of draw for the site, expansion factor for each zone utilizing empirical relationships, maximum possible subsidence and plots the subsidence profile curve. The model is developed for a longwall excavation with unique characteristics of prediction of angle of draw and maximum possible subsidence for a given geologic and mining condition at any cross-section within the influence zone of subsidence.

Jan 1, 1986

By G. E. S. Valadao

Filtration is an important solid liquid separation technology employed widely in the mineral processing industries. The effectiveness of the filtration operation can be influenced by numerous variables, related to the particulate phase, the slurry rheology and the equipment. The classical approach for analysis is based on Darcy's law. Knowledge of the cake pore microstructure and its correlation to macroscopic cake properties is required to model the filtration operation from a fundamental point of view. Since cake formation seems to occur randomly, a 3D Monte Carlo method was used to simulate cake formation. The configuration for simulation was a space with width of 500 µm, length of 500 µm and height of 4000 µm. Size distributions of five different industrial products whose particle size distributions follow the Rosin Rammler distribution function were used. The particle shape was assumed to be spherical. The simulated cake structures were described in terms of volume porosity (volume of pore space per unit volume of cake) and surface porosity (area of pore space per unit area of a cross section). The results indicate: I) it is possible to simulate 3D packing, which mimics cake structure, using the Monte Carlo method, 2) segregation phenomena occurs during simulated cake formation, 3) the values of calculated porosity for simulated samples B, C, D, and E were lower than those determined for corresponding industrial products Br, Cr, Dr, and Er, and 4) some structures of simulated samples seem to correlate with laboratory leaf test data obtained for different products from plant operations.

Jan 1, 1999

By Ann M. Gosier

Over the past 20 years, diesel-powered equipment has been introduced into the underground mining environment in increasing numbers. While the introduction began years earlier in the metal-nonmetal sector, the exponential growth in coal mining use during this time has been more pronounced. Reasons for the continued use and rapid growth of diesel equipment in underground mines are easily understood. The safety and operational advantages afforded by this equipment in production and support systems are demonstrable. As other mine operators witness the advantages enjoyed by their competitors, they too move to introduce an increasingly diverse array of such equipment into their underground mines. As with any industrial technology, the use of diesel-powered equipment entails potential safety and health concerns. Existing Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA)approval regulations (30 CFR Parts 31, 32 and 36) apply only to diesel locomotives and mobile diesel-powered equipment for noncoal mines. In the absence of specific regulations, MSHA has required the use of equipment approved under Part 36 (gassy noncoal mines) for areas of underground coal mines where permissible electrical equipment is required. However, a considerable amount of diesel-powered equipment without explosion-proof or fire prevention features is in use in areas of coal mines where permissible electrical equipment is not required. It is on the use of this latter class of equipment that MSHA is focusing much of its regulatory attention relative to coal. The agency also is focused on revising existing occupational exposure limits for gaseous emissions and instituting limits on diesel particulate emissions for both coal and metal-nonmetal mines.

Jan 1, 1993

By Terry P. McNulty

During the last 30 years, at least ten authors have dealt with startup ("ramp-up') times for minerals beneficiation, hydrometallurgical, and/or pyrometallurgical plants. Most have attempted to identity the reasons for delays and some have suggested attributes common to successful startups, as well as those shared by unsuccessful ones. The most recent has advanced a project characterization matrix as a predictive tool for qualified users. This paper will summarize past work, will review cause and effect, will outline an approach for refining our ability to avoid costly delays, and will seek guidance from professionals most likely to use such a tool. INTRODUCTION During the last few decades, many billions of dollars have been lost by investors in mineral industry projects that did not perform as well as their developers had hoped. The most common form of failure has been the inability to generate a profit quickly, and delayed achievement of planned production rate has been the chief cause. Minerals processing projects are by no means the only kind of plant to suffer from startup delays, as some authors cited in this paper considered inorganic chemical plants and other types of facilities. Furthermore, mines are not without fault and there have been many that were closed after years of disappointing performance. However, our interests as a group are most sharply focused on mineral processing and our database for such projects is relatively extensive. It is sufficient to say that the conclusions made or repeated in the following text can be readily extended to most types of projects.

Jan 1, 2004

By Craig Ammar

JAMIE DAVIS: Our next speaker is Craig Ammar. He's director of equipment management for Cyprus Climax Metals Company. He has, prior to this assignment, been responsible for maintenance at Bagdad Copper, Cyprus' Miami smelter, and Thompson Creek. Like Jerry, he's very shy and retiring, and doesn't have any strong opinions about maintenance. INTRODUCTION CRAIG AMMAR: The ultimate goal behind implementing a proactive equipment management process is to provide capacity assurance and ultimately increase an organization's ability to generate revenue while reducing operating costs. Targeting such lofty objectives has brought many an organization to its knees, utilizing new maintenance techniques, concepts, and technology aimed at making our lives better and more organized. The root cause of such frustration generally stems from a lack of understanding or support for the fundamentals of implementing a proactive equipment management process. There are just two types of maintenance programs, reactive and proactive. It's an established fact that you need a little of both to run an effective equipment management process, obviously more of one (proactive) than the other. Here are some telltale signs that your equipment management process is in trouble: -Maintenance is performed as a knee jerk reaction when equipment fails. -Repeated and frequent equipment failures occur, with no focus on eliminating the root cause. -Sketchy, inconsistent, unclear preventive maintenance is performed or there is no support for the preventive maintenance process. -No predictive maintenance technology process is in place, or little support for predictive maintenance exists. -Less than 50 percent of your work is generated by the maintenance group resulting from inspections.

Jan 1, 1998

By David Rolley

The extended weakness of dollar-denominated commodity prices during the past four years has often been attributed to, among other factors, the strong rise in the value of the dollar, and many U. S. producers have hoped for a recovery in metals and minerals prices once the dollar weakened in foreign exchange markets. The recent turnaround in dollar strength may put this view to the test quite soon. Hence a review of the role of exchange rate changes in the determination of the prices of world-traded metals and minerals may be timely. This paper has three parts. Part I reviews the recent summary record of price movements in commodity and foreign exchange markets. Part 11 reviews the distinct ways in which exchange rate changes influence the supply and demand sides of a representative commodity market. Part III then more closely examines copper and aluminum prices to highlight the potential differences in the effects of exchange rate changes for commodities whose production is dominated by geology and commodities which are processing-dominated. The paper also contemplates the likely implications of these differences for commodity prices in the case of a decline in the trade-weighted dollar. The evidence suggests that the degree of recovery for dollar- measured commodity prices may be very different for differing goods. And it may be the case that some commodities whose prices appear to have been most affected by exchange rate influences may show the least recovery in response to a fall in the trade- weighted dollar.

Jan 1, 1986

By M. F. Gleason, S. Burns, J. R. Arnold

In 1986, Gold Fields began negotiations with a large Nevada electrical power utility to supply power for its Chimney Creek mine in northern Nevada. After the long negotiations reached an impasse over various costs associated with the power line, a decision was made by Gold Fields to generate its own power. Self-generation is not uncommon overseas, but it is rare for any but very large or very small operations in the United States. Surprisingly, under certain conditions a mine can generate its own power profitably, and Gold Fields has found that the associated operating and maintenance problems are minimal. The following report details what factors went into this decision and how it works. Hopefully, it can serve as a guideline for those who may find themselves in a similar position. History In the spring of 1986, Davy McKee Corp. was contracted by Gold Fields Mining Corp. to provide design engineering and construction management for the chimney Creek Mine. Chimney Creek is located about 50 mi northeast of Winnemucca, NV in a remote part of Humboldt County. The nearest industry using utility power was the Pinson Mine, about 13 mi from the proposed plant site. The existing electric line was not capable of carrying another mine the size of Chimney Creek, which required 29 million kwh per year. There were three options available to Gold Fields for the power supply: 1 )Power could be supplied by the public utility from a coal-fired plant about 30 mi away by constructing a new line to the mine,

Jan 1, 1991

By R. V. Ramani, R. Bhaskar

The results of an experimental and theoretical research study into the spatial and temporal behavior of dust in mine airways is summarized. Experiments were performed in mine airways under both controlled and normal operating conditions. The controlled experiments included the documentation of the concentration and deposition patterns for two types of dust under three different velocities. Real-time dust concentration data were obtained using real-time aero- sol monitors (RAM-I) to determine the dispersion coefficient in a mine airway. On the theoretical font, a convection diffusion model of the dust flow phenomenon in mine airways was developed considering dominant mechanisms affecting dust transport and deposition in mine airways. Mechanisms modeled include turbulent and gravitational deposition, coagulation, and dispersion. In this paper, comparative analyses of results (8 the controlled experiments with the predictions of the mathematical model are presented. In addition to the overall validity, the adequacy of the individual components of the model, such as deposition in the total and respirable range, and dispersion are examined in light of the experimental observations. The experimental data from controlled experiments compared more favorably with model predicted results for similar conditions as opposed to the comparative analysis results for in-mine experiments. Specifically, the model predictions for an 800-m stretch of a mine airway reveal some significant differences from the behavior noticed in the mine. The deposition was lower than that predicted by the model. Consequently, concentrations were higher than those predicted by the model. The implications of these and other findings for further investigations are discussed in the paper.

Jan 1, 1987

By Michael C. Newbury

For thousands of years gold has been not only a commodity, valued for its comparative scarceness, immutability and homogeneity but also a medium of exchange which has no nationality. Approximately 90% of the gold produced is still accessible in the world, although some of it in museums, galleries, jewellery and dental work is not immediately available for circulation. The majority is held as bars by central banks for their reserves; the balance circulates as coinage or bullion held for investment. The value is further enhanced by the political aspect that gold cannot be debased as paper currency can and, therefore, it always becomes an investment refuge. It has always been possible to buy and sell gold at a price which is readily established by reference to bullion's weight and purity; and it is this fact which makes a loan denominated in gold, rather than one in currency, a viable alternative means of finance. The purpose of this paper is to discuss some general aspects of what is considered to be one of the more effective and presently popular methods of financing the development of a gold mine - the gold loan. This is not intended to discuss all the minute details which must be uniquely designed to fit each individual situation, but rather to provide general guidelines. You will all be aware of the traditional sequence whereby companies primarily finance exploration work by the raising of equity through the sale of shares to the public or by that unique Canadian form.

Jan 1, 1987

By Peter W. Scott

The Caribbean islands, with their very diverse geology, are a source of several industrial minerals both for their own domestic consumption and for export. The geology of the Greater Antilles, which comprises Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica has a Mesozoic or pre-Mesozoic basement overlain by sediments and volcanics, the latter being dominantly island arc in character. Later granitoid intrusions were emplaced. Obduction of ophiolites also occurred variously from the mid- Cretaceous to the Palaeogene. Thick accumulations of limestones surround the older strata, along with Neogene and younger sediments. The Lesser Antilles islands form an arcuate chain, mainly of volcanic rocks of calc-alkali or sub-alkaline affinity with some younger limestones and siliciclastic sediments. Trinidad and Tobago have closer similarities with the South American continent in their geology. Tobago has a metamorphic complex, juxtaposed with a volcanic-plutonic complex, and limestones. Trinidad has very thick Cretaceous to Recent exposed sedimentary sequence. The current exploitation of industrial minerals in the Caribbean is dominated by construction raw materials (mainly sand and gravel, limestone, and cement), although there is extraction of gypsum, silica sand, marble, clay (almost entirely for construction use), pumice, and natural asphalt. Salt is obtained from solar evaporation of seawater. Limestone of high purity and high brightness, gypsum, pumice, and high-density igneous rock have potential for further development of their markets, particularly ex- ports. Potential new and undeveloped industrial-mineral resources include residual and sedimentary kaolin, bentonite, zeolites, magnesite, and talc. Cuba could be a source for many industrial minerals in the future.

Jan 1, 1999

By John Frostiak, Don Welch, David Landriault

The use of paste technology for underground cemented backfill is widely accepted in the mining industry today as a potentially cost effective alternative to cemented rock and hydraulic slurry fill. While paste backfill is not the appropriate backfilling method for all mines, there are presently 23 operating tailings paste backfill plants throughout the world. This new technology has gained increasing acceptance as a backfill method over the last decade and its use is now expanding into the surface disposal of tailings using the stacked, thickened tailings disposal concept. Over the next 18 months there will be ten new paste plants commissioned in the world. Five of these ten plants will be used exclusively for surface tailings disposal or a combination of surface disposal and underground backfill production. The thickened tailings disposal concept, developed by Dr. Eli Robinsky in the early 1970's, has been in use for decades at several mine sites throughout the world (Kidd Creek Mine site in Northern Ontario), but always utilizing non segregating high density tailings slurry central discharge, stacked tailings placement. With the use of a higher solids content paste, the typical 2-degree beach angle can be increased to ten degrees or more with no runoff water and minimal shrinkage crack development through desiccation. This paper presents the design of the first mine to implement true surface paste disposal, Barrick Gold Corp's Bulyanhulu Mine in Tanzania. The paste system will be commissioned in the first quarter of 2001 allowing performance data to be collected to define the full potential of paste technology for surface tailings disposal.

Jan 1, 2001

By D. T. Jr. Tarr

History of Development The hydrocyclone, probably because of its basic simplicity, has been used for various classification applications since before 1890. A patent was granted in the United States in 1891 to Bretney on a device for separating sand from water, collecting the sand in a closed chamber for intermittent discharge, practically identical to some present-day water desanding cyclones. Between 1900 and 1937 there were 30 or more additional patents issued on liquid cyclone configurations or their use. About 1937 liquid cyclones began to be used commercially in the treatment of cellulose fiber in the pulp and paper industry separating contaminating particles from the fiber in water suspension used for making high grade paper products. Nichols Engineering & Research Corp. of New York was marketing a liquid cyclone for cleaning sand and din particles from fiber suspensions in the pulp and paper industry by 1937. The designs during this period were such that the cyclones discharged a small amount of relatively high density material into a chamber connected to the cyclone apex which in turn discharged the collected dirt material intermittently. By the early 1940s hydrocyclones as we know them today began to appear both in the pulp and paper industry and in coal prorzssing.18 Considerable experimental work was done on small, mostly 3-in.- diam, cyclones operating at relatively high pressure drops, in the range of 50 psi, to remove very small contaminating particles from cellulose fiber in the production of high-grade writing papers in the paper industry.18

Jan 1, 1985

By R. J. Pindred

In his paper, Davis presents an overview of risk. He also introduces the Capital Asset Processing Model (CAPM) as a foundation for selecting the appropriate discount rate for a mining project. While applying portfolio theory is more defensible than the ad hoc adjustment of discount rates, the CAPM is not a panacea.

Jan 1, 1995

By Gregg E. Korbin, Patrick Hamilton

INTRODUCTION The Balsam Meadow Project, presently under construction for the Southern California Edison Company, is located approximately 55 miles northeast of Fresno, in the Sierra Nevada Mountains (Fig. 1). Major components of this project include an underground powerhouse for a 200 MW unit and a high pressure power tunnel/shaft. Site exploration [ ]

Jan 1, 1987

By O. Ozdemir

Soda ash, an essential raw material for major industries, such as the glass, chemicals, soap and detergents, pulp and paper, mining and water treatment industries, is traditionally produced by chemical and thermal treatment of trona ore. The treatment processes for trona ore are not only chemically expensive but also energy intensive. Hence, the production of a high-purity trona concentrate at a lower energy and operating cost is of considerable interest to the trona industry. In this study, we describe a possible two-stage process for concentrating trona ore, involving dry magnetic separation followed by flotation, to remove insoluble impurities from the trona ore. The results showed that a trona concentrate of 91.7% purity with a recovery 91.1% can be obtained by two-stage magnetic separation, which could be further improved to 98.1% purity at a recovery of 83.8% by subsequent flotation of the non-magnetic trona product. The purity of trona concentrate is limited by the particle size and impurity content of the trona ore. The operating parameters for magnetic separation and flotation have been identified to obtain an acceptable quality concentrate.

Jan 1, 2011

By J. R. Walls

The United States potash industry had its beginning in the early Colonial days. Potash was initially manufactured by leaching of hardwood ashes in large iron pots. Production of potash was recorded as early as 1631 in New Hampshire, and in Maine a few years later. According to the census of 1850, the production of potash was America's most thriving chemical industry and, at that time, 569 plants were reported producing potash from wood ashes. Interest in potash was so great prior to the 1800's that the very first United States patent, signed by George Washing- ton, was granted for the production of potash on July 31, 1790. A new era for the production of potash began when potash was discovered by the analysis from a brine well in 1839 near Stassfurt, Germany while exploring for salt. The predominant use of potash at that time was in the chemical industry rather than agriculture. The discovery, by Justice von Liebig in about 1858, that potash salt contributed greatly to the essential plant food in soil opened up an enormous potential market for a suitable potash material.

Jan 1, 1985

By Warren N. Warhol

The mutual growth of the rare earth industry and the Mountain Pass Operations was no coincidence. It was the commercial availability of rare earths on a scale first made possible by the capacity of the Mountain Pass Operations that spurred research and development efforts toward new applications for rare earths. The first important demand on Mountain Pass was europium oxide for the activation of red phosphor for color television tubes in 1964. Since that time, other rare earths have become even more important, and Molycorp is continuing to supply an ever widening variety of rare earth concentrates and compounds. We enjoy saying that rare earths are not really rare, and that they are not earths, either. Of course, we are talking about the 15 metallic elements with atomic numbers 57-71, called the lanthanides, which occur in nature always together in very similar proportions. Their scarcity can be gauged by the fact that there is more cerium in the earth's crust than there is tin, and more europium than cadmium. The word "earths" comes from the early chemical term for oxide. The rare earths were discovered as oxides, and the term has persisted.

Jan 1, 1980

By Albert J. Shohet

The increasing scarcity of bentonite coupled with the potential of improved pellet strength have created a need for understanding the effects of thorough bentonite dispersion in taconite concentrate. It has been known for more than a decade that under certain conditions substantial savings of bentonite are realizable by using thorough mixing of bentonite as compared to poor mixing. Extensive work done by J. O. Zetterstrom l at the Univer¬sity of Minnesota indicated the effect of thorough bentonite mixing in a controlled laboratory testing. Commercial hardware was not available at the time Zetterstrom1 paper was published and not much work was done until R. L. Stone, J. M. Karpinsky2, did work with Muller mixing. Nabush 3 worked with the pugmill principle, and Hoogovens 4 and Robe River 5 used the fluidized bed principle. It was very hard to convince iron ore industries to improve the mixing of Bentonite and taconite for the following reasons: A. The initial capital investment for improved mixing equipment; B. The relatively low bentonite cost a few years back, which was not enough to justify new equip¬ment investment;

Jan 1, 1976

By George S. Koch

Today, after about 30 years of development, computer-based analysis of geoscience data has reached a mature phase. From the tentative early beginnings recorded in the proceedings of the APCOM meetings, geoscientists are now able to emphasize the need for both pertinent mathematical/statistical models and computer hardware and software. From those models that are well understood in the disciplines of statistics and mathematics and for which effective computational methods are available, practitioners select and develop methodology for their particular purposes. Computer hardware is typically assembled from off-the- shelf components now readily available, with particular emphasis, whenever feasible, on microcomputers for reasons of economy and control by the scientific or engineering user rather than by a bureaucratic computer center. Computer software may be written by the user in high level languages such as Pascal, FORTRAN, or LISP. However, more often today geoscientists use routines available in spreadsheets, data bases, or statistical packages. In so doing, they save time and, programming costs and take advantage of routines written and maintained by large, well- established organizations, while losing the flexibility in specifying exact input/output afforded by writing in a high level language.

Jan 1, 1989