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By Y. Pan, V. V. S. Vytla, P. Tukkaraja, R. BHARGAVA, S. Jayaraman Sridharan

Panel caving is an underground bulk mining method that utilizes gravitational force for mining massive, steeply dipping, and deep-seated ore deposits at a lower operating cost. To control dust and gas emissions entering the production level during the extraction of ore from the draw points in a panel cave, relatively negative pressure is created in the cave by installing an exhaust fan in the exhaust drift located on top of the cave. Since caving is a dynamic process, the design of an effective ventilation system is a challenging task, and therefore, estimation of airflow resistance offered by the broken rock inside the cave is critical. The complex and dynamic nature of caving also makes it difficult to predict the airflow resistance by using traditional approaches. This study investigates the effect of changes in the bulk porosity of the broken rock on the cave airflow resistance using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. The results show an inverse relationship between the cave airflow resistance and the bulk cave porosity. The pressure-quantity characteristic curves presented in this paper provide valuable information for sizing and operating an exhaust fan used for a mature panel cave ventilation.

May 17, 2022

By B. A. Slaker, T. Miller, M. M. Murphy

An underground limestone mine in eastern Ohio was experiencing significant floor heave and roof falls, attributed to high horizontal stresses. Areas of the mine showing floor heave were monitored with roof-to-floor extensometers and photogrammetry surveys to determine the rate and magnitude of heave. Extensometer data were recorded hourly at four locations across adjacent entries while photogrammetry surveys of the floor were performed at the same locations every two to five weeks. A final survey was performed using an I-Site 8200 laser scanner. Following instrumentation, floor heave up to 10.1 cm (4 in.) was measured by the extensometers, photogrammetric reconstructions and laser scanner over a six-month period. The extensometers were biased by the location where they were placed, failing to consistently capture the location and extent of floor heave and cracking. The photogrammetry surveys were not precise enough to capture small magnitude movements. Mining in the area was halted and within several months the floor movement and incidence of roof falls were significantly lessened.

Jan 1, 2018

By Michelle Pienaar, Musa S. D. Manzi, Thabang Kgarume, Glen T. Nwaila, Raymond J. Durrheim, Abrie Oberholster, Hennie Grobler

The South African Mining, Extraction, Research, Development and Innovation (SAMERDI) strategy was launched in 2019 with the goal of modernizing the mining industry. It comprises three major research initiatives: improvement in the efficiency of extraction and health and safety in current mining operations, development of fully mechanized systems to mine narrow tabular ore bodies in hard rock, and development of extraction systems to break rock without using explosives. The crosscutting Advanced Orebody Knowledge (AOK) program seeks to develop and implement drilling and geophysical technologies that can characterize the rock mass ahead of mining and identify potentially hazardous geological features. This knowledge will be integrated with information derived from seismic monitoring. Mining methods, layouts and rock support systems will be adjusted accordingly to mitigate the risk of rockbursts. Boreholes are routinely drilled ahead of mine workings using diamond-impregnated bits. The drill core is logged to identify lithology and geological structures (especially dykes and faults that may be seismogenic), sample the ore body for grade control, and detect areas that may contain water and/or flammable gas. Methods and technology to improve the efficiency of drilling and maximize the information obtained from the drilling process, borehole core, and the borehole itself are being investigated. A range of geophysical technologies are being developed to map the rock mass from the skin of the excavation to a distance of several tens of meters. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is used to map the geometry of the excavation, including prominent joint, vein and fracture sets and the presence and performance of rock support elements and systems. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is used to penetrate deeper into the rock mass and image joints, fractures bedding planes that influence the stability of the hanging and side walls. Image processing techniques known as ‘seismic attributes’ are being applied to the radargrams to improve interpretation. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and various active and passive seismic techniques (e.g. Tunnel Seismic Profiling (TSP), ambient noise tomography) achieve even greater penetration into the rock mass. Finally, machine learning is used to improve the processing and interpretation of seismic and radar data.

Apr 26, 2022

By Eduardo Rojas, Pedro Landeros

El Teniente Mine expansion plans are currently under development and construction stages through an integrated project strategy that will allow the continuity of future mining. The deepest sector corresponds to Andes Norte Project that faced rockburst risks during tunneling in a completely different manner, implementing different actions for the mitigation of seismic hazard and seismic risk management, based on the following main aspects: rock mass preconditioning techniques such as destress blasting and hydraulic fracturing, improvement of rock support design with the inclusion of elements with higher energy dissipation capacities, use of mechanized equipment for the most critical activities in addition to re-entry protocols and improvements in geological, geomechanical and seismic data collection procedures to reduce the uncertainty of rock mass behavior. The current seismic risk management strategy integrates all of these elements and is the basis of construction methodologies in use, supporting the technical feasibility of tunneling in high-stress environments.

Apr 26, 2022

By Xiaozhen Song, Ashish Ranjan Kumar, Shimin Liu

Diesel particulate matter (DPM) presents considerable occupational health hazards in large-opening underground mines (LOUM). Previous studies have primarily focused on single-factor ventilation optimization, while this study innovatively integrates booster fan configurations and loading truck placements utilizing a coupled CFD turbulence– particle tracing model. Three distinct ventilation scenarios were simulated to evaluate their effects on DPM dispersion and dilution efficiency. Results indicate that dual booster fans substantially enhance airflow distribution, increasing air exchange efficiency; The migration pathways of DPM closely align with airflow trajectories, and air turbulence is the predominant factor influencing particle behavior within LOUM; Loading truck placement critically influences local DPM accumulation; Airflow effectiveness diminishes markedly with distance from booster fans, causing stagnation at distant working faces. The coupled CFD approach accurately captured airflow–particle interactions, offering valuable insights for optimizing mine ventilation strategies and effectively mitigating miners’ exposure to DPM.

Feb 22, 2026

By Jacob Carr, Christopher C. Jobes, Chenming Zhou, LaTasha R. Swanson, Jennica Bellanca, Jingcheng Li

Magnetic proximity detection systems (PDSs) are used with continuous mining machines (CMMs) to protect miners from striking and pinning accidents. Generators are used in a PDS to create magnetic fields covering the space around a CMM. The PDS determines the proximity of a miner relative to the CMM based on the magnetic flux density detected by a miner-wearable component (MWC) and simultaneously alerts the miner and stops the motion of the CMM if the miner is within a proximity that creates a striking hazard. A stable magnetic field is essential to the accuracy of the proximity calculations performed by the PDS. This paper presents the results of a systematic study of the magnetic influence of two types of steel structures found near a CMM— the body of the CMM itself and the wire mesh used for roof and rib control. The results show that the steel of the CMM body can change the magnetic field distribution and also alter electrical parameters of a PDS by changing its generator current. The study also shows that, depending on the distance between the wire mesh and a generator, the magnetic field can also be altered.

By Scott O’Brien, Richard Williams, Camilo I. Mejias, Elias Godoy, Javier Sierra

High-rate thickeners play a critical role in tailings management by enhancing water recovery and increasing solids concentration. However, these units face operational instability due to fluctuations in feed solids, flow rate, and flocculant response typically managed in manual mode with delayed corrective actions. This work presents an adaptive automatic control algorithm designed for dynamic thickening environments. The algorithm integrates real-time measurements of feed density, rake torque, bed level, and turbidity (overflow), optimizing the underflow slurry density while minimizing suspended solids in the overflow. The proposed control strategy is modular, simple, scalable, and applicable to both existing and new thickening systems, offering a robust alternative to manual operation in increasingly demanding metallurgical environments.

Feb 22, 2026

By C. J. Weiss

"A commercially available Through-the-Earth (TTE) communications system was evaluated at an underground coal mine in eastern Kentucky. This field study was conducted as part of a larger multi-site evaluation of available TTE systems to determine their operational sensitivity. Field testing is being performed along with simulation techniques developed for geophysical surveys. The results of the field test will additionally be used to determine the applicability of these simulation techniques to TTE communications. The mine detailed in this paper was idled at the time of the study, which provided the nearest practical representation of a post-event mine shutdown. For this study, the three following communication modes were tested: surface-to-underground, underground-to-surface and surface-to-surface. Standard deployments of the TTE system using the manufacturer’s recommended procedures were able to achieve clear communications between underground and surface locations. Other arrangements of the units yielded intriguing results, some of which were predicted by computer simulations, others were unexpected. Future experimentation is planned to further evaluate the observed phenomena. INTRODUCTION The ability to establish effective communication between surface and underground personnel after a mine event is essential for both mine evacuation and mine rescue efforts. Current communication technology is reliant on physical infrastructure, such as antennas, cables, and repeaters, located throughout the mine. Such systems are easily disabled during a mine event because of their vulnerability to physical damage. A true emergency communications system would have the ability to function regardless of a mine’s physical state. Through-the-Earth (TTE) wireless communications technology has the potential to provide such a tool. Wireless TTE communications are exceptionally challenging because electromagnetic (EM), or radio, signals are subject to drastic attenuation as they travel through solid strata. In addition to attenuation, EM wave propagation is directly affected by the physical and petrographic characteristics, mineral compositions, metamorphic properties, and the degree of water infiltrations in the strata [1-5]. These strata characteristics are unique to each mine thus making the design of an effective, universally deployable, and reliable TTE communications system very difficult. At present, TTE technology is in the preliminary stages of practical deployment with only a few permissible TTE systems commercially available."

Jan 1, 2015

By Seth Pollak, Jon Hurt, Mark Havekost, David Vardiman, James Schick

"INTRODUCTION The Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) Far Site Conventional Facilities are proposed to be sited at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) located within the former Homestake Gold Mine in Lead, South Dakota. The project involves excavation and support of three large caverns which will house four 10 kT fiducial volume liquid argon (LAr) neutrino detectors and cryogenic equipment, as well as numerous ancillary connecting drifts and chambers. This paper describes the geological setting of the project, the geotechnical investigation undertaken nearly a mile underground and the challenges associated with collection of reliable data in a high stress and geologically complex environment. The layout for the new facility will be presented, along with a description of some of the constraints that will impact construction, including shaft access and working within an operating research facility. THE LBNF PROJECT The global neutrino physics community is coming together to develop a leading-edge, dual-site experiment for neutrino science and proton decay studies, the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). The facility required for this experiment, the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF), will be an internationally designed, coordinated and funded program, comprising the world's highest-intensity neutrino beam at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab) in Batavia, IL and the infrastructure necessary to support massive deep underground cryogenic detectors 800 miles (1,300 km) downstream at the LBNF Far Site at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF), in Lead, South Dakota. The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment is expected to achieve transformative discoveries, making definitive determinations of neutrino properties, the dynamics of the supernovae that produced the heavy elements necessary for life, and the possibility of proton decay. Neutrinos created by the LBNF beamline will travel on the 1,300 km (800 mi) path shown in Figure 1 leading straight through the earth's crust to intercept DUNE's massive, cutting-edge neutrino detector at the Sanford Lab. No tunnel is needed as neutrinos pass easily through soil and rock rarely interacting with the matter. The DUNE far detector will consist of four modules, each of which will be housed in a cryostat containing 17,000 metric tons of liquid argon target material, providing a 10kT fiducial volume. The LBNF Far Site Conventional Facilities project will excavate and fit out a set of four caverns 4850 ft underground in which to place them."

Jan 1, 2016

By Taekhee Lee, Steven Mischler, Shawn Vanderslice

Diesel-powered equipment is widely used in the underground mining industry and their popularity results from properties including efficiency, versatility, reliability, and durability. In the U.S. approximately 7,700 diesel engines were used in 177 underground metal and nonmetal mines as of 2005 [MSHA 2005], and these numbers have likely increased since that time. Diesel engines have been shown to be a major contributor to submicron carbonaceous, respirable, and total particulate mass in the air of underground metal mines [Zielinska et al. 2002, McDonald et al. 2003], and their extensive use results in approximately 13,000 underground metal/nonmetal (M/NM) miners (MSHA 2005) in the U.S. being potentially exposed to aerosols and gases emitted by diesel engines (MSHA 2001, MSHA 2006). Exposure to diesel exhaust has been linked to adverse health outcomes including cancer, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases (Attfield et al. 2012, Silverman et al. 2012), and in 2012 diesel exhaust was categorized by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) as a Group 1 human carcinogen (IARC 2012). Exposure to diesel particulate matter (DPM) is especially concerning for underground miners since underground mine environments have been shown to have some of the highest levels of diesel exhaust in the U.S. (EPA 2002, MSHA 2001, MSHA 2006, Pronk et al. 2009). Due to the potential for elevated DPM concentrations in mines, the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) promulgated a rule to limit exposures of metal/ nonmetal underground miners to DPM to an eight-hour time-weighted average (TWA) of 160 μg/m3 total carbon (TC) (MSHA 2001, MSHA 2006, MSHA 2008). Since this rule went into effect, DPM exposures have been reduced, but are still elevated when compared to other occupations (Pronk et al. 2009, Noll et al. 2015). MSHA compliance data between 2005 to the present show that underground blasters represent 21% of all DPM overexposures in M/NM mines and are one of the highest exposed professions in mining often resulting from low ventilation in the area where blasters are working. Because mines have difficulty controlling DPM in these low ventilation areas, additional control technologies may be needed to reduce exposures. Administrative controls, where miners work on off schedules or upstream of diesel vehicles to avoid the exposures to DPM (Noll et al. 2015) is one possibility, but these types of solutions are not always feasible or practical. A canopy air curtain is another potential control technology to help reduce exposures of blasters to DPM. Listak and Beck (2012) showed that this control technology reduced respirable dust concentration under a roof bolter’s canopy by 67%–75% and recommended air velocities greater than 0.5 m/s for dust reductions of greater than 50%. Additional work showed that a canopy air curtain could be designed for a shuttle car, and some initial testing by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) showed reductions of respirable mine dust between 66% to 70%. As seen in Figure 1, the canopy air curtain delivers clean air over the operator’s breathing zone. A fan draws in air through a filter to capture the dust and then supplies clean air beneath the canopy where a miner is working. The use of the canopy air curtain to reduce exposures to diesel particulate matter was first discussed by Noll et al. (2020). In this study the diesel canopy air curtain (DCAC) reduced the DPM concentrations under the canopy by up to 90%. For this research the DCAC was designed to attach to the basket cover of an ammonium nitrate fuel oil ( ANFO) loader (Figure 2) and provide clean air blowing over the miners as they work in the basket. The initial tests used clean air drawn from the mine’s intake and did not try to filter the DPM from the air. Filtering DPM has extra challenges when compared to filtering mine dust particles. The particles of DPM are smaller (submicron and nanometer) than dust particles (greater than 1 micron); therefore, the filtration system must be adjusted to capture submicron particles. A MERV 13 filter was used in previous canopy air curtain research on mine dust control, but this filter is only designed to capture 50%–75% of submicron particles, and this capture efficiency is too low for removing DPM, so a higher efficiency filter is needed. Higher efficiency filters increase the pressure across the filter media which results in decreased airflow or leaks around the filter and reduces the effectiveness of the control for protecting miners from DPM. The optimal filter needs to capture DPM particles at a high efficiency while still allowing the needed airflows to prevent contaminated air from entering the miner’s breathing zone. Listak and Beck (2012) recommended velocities greater than 0.5 m/s for dust reductions of greater than 50%. However, airflows too high have been shown to reduce miners’ thermal comfort; Roghanchi et al. (2016) suggest the optimal velocity for thermal comfort is between 1–2 m/s. Thus, airflow over the miner should be limited to the range of 0.5 to 2.0 m/s. This current study presents the results from research evaluating the reduction of DPM concentrations, under the DCAC, when using a higher efficiency filter (MERV 16) to remove DPM from the DCAC airstream.

Feb 1, 2024

By Raja V. Ramani

Discussion in this section of the Handbook is limited to the working environment of miners, the mine workers themselves, and the machines used in mining (Fig. 11.0.1). The contents emphasize personnel health and safety aspects and engineering design and control practices to ensure a productive health and safety environment. Reference is to the health and safety of the individual miners as well as to the safety of the working environment. This Handbook also contains references to health and safety regulations in Chapter 3.2 and environmental protection in Chapters 3.4 and 7.3.

Jan 1, 2008

By Xiaochao Shu, Kun Wang, Fanwei Meng, Rui Tao

Rapidly searching for carbonatite-related rare earth element (REE) mineralized systems is of paramount importance to explorers, because these systems provide the world’s most significant supply of REE. Biotite and barite are suitable indicator minerals that can offer reliable elemental geochemical information used for REE exploration. In this study, we provided an elemental geochemical dataset of biotite and barite from Cenozoic REE deposits in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and compared the obtained data to those of biotite and barite forming in other geological settings. The F (i.e., fluorine) contents in carbonatite-hosted biotites are highly variable, with biotites from mineralized carbonatite complexes having much higher values (1.05–2.37 apfu, where apfu = atoms per formula unit) than their counterparts from barren carbonatite complexes (≤ 1 apfu). It is therefore believed that the presence of high-F biotites can be regarded as a sign for predicting REE reservoirs. Barites in REE mineralized systems contain much higher (even one or to orders of magnitude) total REE contents (ΣREE >100 μg/g) relative to those species forming in carbonate-hosted fluorite-barite deposits and open marine environments. This means that the high ΣREE concentration of barite can serve as an effective index for REE exploration. The above information is integrated into a REE exploration program in which the areas with strong local tectonism along cratonic edges are priority exploration targets, and high-F biotites and REE-rich barites can serve as direct indices for rapidly identifying carbonatiterelated REE mineralized systems at a strategic distance from other geological settings.

Jun 9, 2023

By Ehab Gomaa, K. A. El‑Nagdy

Backfilling material such as tailing (mine wastes) mixing with cement or gypsum has grown throughout the world’s underground mines. However, despite their growing popularity, the typical hydraulic and mechanical fill types utilized in many mines still exist. Deep underground mining has increased due to the lack of commercial minerals nearby. Mine wastes were considered the main part of backfilling to prevent environmental pollution, ground subsidence after mine abandonment, and mine collapse during deeper extraction phases. The cemented backfill technique is the principal technique used in underground mines, which include cement with fly ash and/or filter dust, cement with tailing material and fly ash, gypsum with fly ash, and synthetic anhydrite with fly ash and have been reviewed. It has concluded that a backfilling material must be selected based on further goals, available material near the mine site, and economic factors. This paper analyzes different backfill material mixtures to create a technique that will increase safety in underground mining conditions and foresees an appropriate formula that gives high uniaxial compressive strength. The multiple linear regression (MLR) on the collected data from the experimental works to construct the relationship between the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of the mixture and the components of the backfilling and the prediction formula for expected compressive strength was obtained. The results revealed that the predicted regression equation was robust and reliable to predict the (UCS) for the new components of the filling (cement (CE), filter dust (FD), water content (WC), and time (T)).

Oct 3, 2023

By S. A. Richards

Business planning in the coal' industry revolves around the production and quality forecast. It is difficult to accurately estimate costs and revenues until the production forecast is made. At mines where production comes from multiple sections, quality is tied to each section's production. Blending becomes a part of the planning process. In order to respond to rapidly changing business climate, a reliable program is needed to accurately forecast the effects of changes in key parameters affecting the production. This paper discusses an efficient, intuitive, and economical approach to underground coal mine planning program which uses a PC-based relational database as the programming platform to forecast production and quality. The program was developed at a major coal company. The relational nature of the production planning data, the programming algorithm, and the underlying principles are discussed in this paper.

Jan 1, 1994

By David D. Eyer

In today's world coal market, coal quality is becoming increasingly important. Often the coal quality parameters are one of the crucial considerations in the development of a coal mine. Because of the user's tighter specifications and because of strict environmental regulations, coal producers are being called on to predict with increasing accuracy, not only the quality of their product but also the variability of that quality. This area of reserve evaluation is naturally receiving a great deal of scrutiny. Consolidation Coal Company has developed reliable and sophisticated methods for predicting coal quality, but the company's efforts continue to search for even better techniques. The following is a step-wise summary of The methods currently used by consolidation coal company, with A recent project used as an example. Two of the newer, and as yet experimental techniques will be briefly discussed.

Jan 1, 1980

By L. J. Blatnica

Throughout the 1980's the tem Mine-Wide Monitoring System has had various meanings for manufacturers of these systems and underground mine operators alike. System suppliers had visions of grandeur in the early 80's as they envisioned each mine, that has more than a single section, installing a computer based monitoring system to provide surveillance, control and documentation of the entire mining operation, including everything from a single heat detector to the weekly payroll. In a few cases this may have become reality but the truth is these systems have quietly become a steady but unspectacular workbase for the modern mining industry of the 1990's. As it exists today the total market for underground monitoring systems may not exceed $10 million annually. Suppliers have lowered their expectations of the dollar value of this particular market. Some were entering a new market because of experience with computer based data acquisition systems. Others had been active in the mining industry for years with more traditional equipment (communication systems, methane monitors, safety equipment, etc.) and decided to become involved with Mine-Wide Monitoring Systems.

Jan 1, 1990

By Peter N. Blakey

The Kidd Creek orebody is a massive, base metal deposit with widths up to 600 feet and a strike length of 2,200 feet. The orebody dips eastwards at 70° to 80° and is amenable to sub-level open stoping. Five distinct zones (Fig.1) based on structural wall rocks and ore type parameters occur within the orebody. These zones are: Zone 1 - Mainly copper stringer ore Zone 2 - Massive pyrite ore Zone 3 - Massive sphalerite and chalcopyrite Zones 4 and 5 - Are banded and variable in nature Compressive strengths vary from zone to zone with an average of 22,000 p.s.i. and highs of 40,000 p.s.i. The mine is developed from a ramp extending from surface to the 1600 foot level and a 24 foot diameter, 3050 foot vertical shaft with main levels at 400 foot intervals. Sub-levels at 100 foot vertical intervals are driven from the ramp. transverse and longitudinal pillars to support the crown pillar left under the open pit. The layout allows an opportunity to enlarge or reduce pillar sizes and also to introduce fill on any horizon should conditions warrant. It also offers a large number of operating stopes spread through the various ore zones giving good ore blending characteristics. All ore from the stopes is handled through drawpoints using Wagner ST8 scooptrams with an average one way haul length of 650 feet.

Jan 1, 1976

Optimal gold recoveries largely depend on efficient liberation of the gold or gold-bearing minerals as well as on maximum access for the lixiviant. Thus, crushing and grinding may become the most costly part of gold ore processing. It may, in fact, represent 50% to 70% of a plant's operating costs (Michaelis, 1989). The increasing significance of refractory gold will require even more cost-efficient comminution of ultrafine sulfides and/or native gold. Transitional ore zones with semi refractory gold may respond to direct leaching if better particle fracturing is being achieved (Baum, 1991, 1993a). Many oxide ores have been left in the ground because they were unsuitable for heap leaching since conventional comminution could not facilitate economic gold extraction. Also, the costs of conventional bal1 mill operations did not permit the recovery of gold from many ultrafine, low-grade refractory ores. As shown by Marsden et al. (1993), the trend to treat ores with progressively lower grades will involve power-and leach-efficient grinding applications. Our current laboratory work shows that high-pressure grinding roll (HPGR) Polycom grinding may enable many mining companies to add large amounts of these "non-leachable" ores to their current heap or mill leach feeds. This finding may dramatically change the economics of many oxide gold ore operations and may add significant reserves to ores amenable to direct cyanidation.

Jan 1, 1994

By K. V. K. Prasad

Stochastic simulation has been routinely used for performing risk and sensitivity analyses in a variety of fields. The commonly used means of generating the simulations has been the Monte Carlo approach which usually employs a Simple Random Sampling (SRS) scheme of the variable distributions. This method is prone to sample clustering and requires a large number of samples to represent the distribution faith-fully. This can become problematic for simulating complex processes where it is impossible to run an arbitrarily large number of replicate simulations. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method uses a stratified sampling approach which assures representation of the input distributions for any given number of samples. In this paper the LHS and SRS approaches are compared using a petroleum resource estimation example.

Jan 1, 1993

By A. Moergeli, Philip Sander, John J. Reilly

"Estimating and managing the costs of complex infrastructure projects – in the planning/design and construction phases, for both owners and contractors – has been a challenge for decades. The more complex and technologically advanced the project, the greater the uncertainty, including potential risks that are important to owners and contractors, such as:• Cost risks to owners – meeting budget and schedule, maintaining public credibility.• Cost risks to contractors – profit, consequences of loss, impacts to reputation/future work.This concern has been addressed in various ways by the underground construction industry for some time (Reilly, 2001). In particular, while significant advances have been made in cost estimating for the planning and design phases (Reilly et al., 2004), that are important to agencies and political decision-makers, it is not apparent that these advances have been widely adopted for construction cost estimates. The reasons for this may relate to lowbid considerations – any method that tends to increase the contractor’s cost estimate, by including risk or likely costs, could lead to an erosion of the contractor’s competitive position – if others are not similarly required to include such costs.Different cost estimating methods produce different levels of information. Specifically, there is a large difference in the character and depth of information if a deterministic (quantities times price plus a contingency) and risk-based cost methods are used. It is this difference in character and depth of information that is the reason that risk-based cost estimating has potential value for owners and contractors. Figure 1 presents hypothetical cost results from deterministic and risk-based methods and illustrates some of these differences.In Fig. 1, the results for deterministic and risk-based cost estimates are given related to the potential profit or loss for a typical project. As is evident in this example, there is significant potential for costs to be realized that are higher than the proposal/bid value estimated using a deterministic approach, with a 15 percent probability of a loss. There is a 30 percent probability that the project will have a reduced profit. There is a 55 percent probability that the project will return a good profit. Using a risk-based approach, it is possible to better recognize this potential outcome in the bid phase and, as a consequence, develop a strategy to:"

Apr 1, 2016