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By T. T. Toomver

The evolution of Inco's Selective Reduction Smelting Process as practised today is described, beginning with the initial laboratory experiments on small samples to the processing of large bulk samples through pilot plant equipment. For both the Guatemalan and Indonesian (Soroako) ores, the initial screening tests using hydro-, vapo-, and pyro-metallurgical processes showed that the latter was the most promising both metallurgically and economically. Later, larger scale tests confirmed the earlier testwork.

Jan 1, 1979

By C. V. Deutsch, D. A. Silva

The geologic modeling of multiple domains is required for the prediction of mineral resources and reserves. In general, explicit methods have wide acceptance among modelers due to the ability to manually add deemed important trends and geological features into the models. As an alternative, implicit geologic modeling techniques are increasingly adopted to reduce professional time requirements. These methods aim for objective, repeatable and flexible models by replacing the manual time-consuming interpretation of sections with the interpolation of signed distance values. These techniques, however, have been developed for the binary case of two domains at a time. The current paper presents an algorithm that extends the binary case to multiple domains. The method is able to transfer large-scale geological features from data to geologic models. A case study illustrates the benefits of the algorithm and practical implementation considerations.

Jan 1, 2016

By C. D. Litton, I. E. Perera

Experiments were conducted to evaluate the response characteristics of commercially available gas, smoke and flame sensors to fires of common combustible mine materials. The experiments were conducted in the large-scale fire gallery located at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Lake Lynn Laboratory in Fairchance, PA, using ponderosa pine, red oak, Douglas fir, high and low volatile coals, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) conveyor belts, No. 2 diesel fuel and diesel exhaust. All the experiments (except those using No. 2 diesel fuel and the diesel exhaust tests) were conducted in a similar manner, with combustible materials heated rapidly by electrical strip heaters, producing smoldering fires that quickly transitioned into flaming fires. The sensors included a diffusion-type carbon monoxide (CO) sensor, photoelectric- and ionization-type smoke sensors, a video smoke/flame detector and an optical flame detector. Simultaneous measurements were obtained for average gas concentrations, smoke mass concentrations and smoke optical densities in order to quantify the levels of combustion products at the alert and alarm times of the sensors. Because the required sensor alarm levels are 10 ppm and 0.044 m-1 optical density for CO and smoke sensors, respectively, the different sensor alarms are compared to the time at which the CO and smoke reached these alarm levels (Litton et al., 1991). In addition, the potential impact of using smoke sensors that have met the performance standards from accredited testing laboratories is also evaluated using the response of an Underwriters’ Laboratory (UL)-approved combination photoelectric/ionization smoke detector. The results are discussed relative to fire sensor needs that can have a positive impact on mine fire safety.

Jan 1, 2014

By J. Paraszczak

Metal mining at great depths presents a number of serious challenges for mine operators. Among them is the high demand for fresh air required to cool down mine openings, evacuate noxious gases and contaminants and provide sufficient amounts of oxygen for miners. At the same time, modern mechanized mines extensively use diesel-powered load-haul-dump (LHD) machines, trucks and other mobile equipment. These vehicles not only emit exhaust gases and diesel particulate matter (DPM), but constitute an additional source of heat. As mine regulations get steadily more stringent with regard to air quality, the use of diesel engines has an additional adverse impact on ventilation costs. In this context, the present paper examines possible alternatives for diesel power trains, both those commercially available and those in development. They are reviewed with regard to their principles, required infrastructure, stage of technology development and progress. The questions of their flexibility, practicality and economic viability are also addressed. Finally, their possible benefits and potential for implementation in the conditions of deep metal mines are discussed. The paper concludes with short- to medium-term predictions concerning promising drive alternatives for vehicles destined to operate in deep metal mines.

Jan 1, 2009

By Kanchan Mondal, Gopi Bylapudi, Anand Bhagwat

Corrosion of steel roof support systems can cause potential premature failure of the support, thus adversely affecting the excavation stability and rock-related safety. An in-house corrosion test system was designed and developed to test full-length roof bolts for material performance based on tensile load capacity and strength under different corrosive conditions found underground. The roof bolts tested are also used to identify the possible corrosion mechanisms that influenced the bolts’ performance over time. Initially, the most commonly used bolt material in the USA, the ASTM A615 grade 60 steel roof bolts, was tested with and without stresses in a simulated underground coal mining environment for approximately 6 months, and the results are discussed. Localized corrosion forms such as crevice and pitting were mainly observed after testing. The stressed and unstressed roof bolts with and without threads that were tested in alkaline coal mine corrosive environment for 6 months passed their load-bearing capacity as per ASTM F432 test standards. From the results, it is concluded that this test protocol could be applicable to test the material performance of different roof bolt metallurgies and coatings with desired modifications to the proposed methodology for the specific underground mine environment. This paper mainly discusses the test system and protocol and shortcomings of the system and makes recommendations based on the observations and results.

By Bahadir Ergener, Angel Maria Tobar Escudero, Sandra Nowosad

Modern mining companies are increasingly turning to integrate digital technologies and circular economy (CE) principles to increase the sustainability of their operations. The so-called “mine of the future” is envisioned as a smart, integrated system where technologies such as automation, artificial intelligence, digital twins, and real-time data analytics work in harmony with human decision-making and environmental responsibility. Already in 2018, McKinsey and Co. identified that the three drivers that would define a technology-enabled change in mining would be technology, including digital, analytics and automation, management systems able to identify the potential and value of the new technologies, and the culture and capabilities of the organisation, leaning to more agile and responsive organisations. From the three drivers, in the last five years most developments have been centred in the first one. Yet despite rapid advances, the adoption of new technologies across the industry today remains uneven and often slower than expected. Furthermore, it has been identified that the problem on the technology uptake often relay on the lack of operational readiness, process incompatibility or misalignment, and resistance to change within the mining operation. At the same time, leading companies like Rio Tinto, BHP, and Anglo American have each launched major digital transformation programs. Rio Tinto, for instance, operates one of the world’s largest autonomous mining fleets and has integrated digital technologies across nearly all its operations (Rio Tinto, 2025). BHP is actively investing in information and communication technology (ICT) development as artificial intelligence, big data analytics and robotics, and has partnered with battery companies to pursue circular economy initiatives. Only in 2024, their ICT spending reached US$ 438.3 million (Global Data, 2024). Anglo American has rolled out its FutureSmart Mining™ framework, explicitly aligning innovation with circularity and sustainability goals (Anglo American, 2025). The accelerating pace of change across leading mining companies along with the uneven adoption in the technology uptake clearly state how digital transformation is no longer just about implementing new tools, instead it requires a fundamental shift in how people, processes, and culture are aligned. Addressing only the technical layer, while neglecting the human and organizational dimensions, leaves transformation efforts fragile and unsustainable. As the industry must act decisively to close this gap, the true test of transformation is today centred in changing behaviours, mindsets, and systems. Even at the listed leading companies, initiatives have encountered cultural and structural resistance that are relatable to the industry in large: siloed departments fail to collaborate, procurement teams focus on upfront costs rather than lifecycle value, and operators are often excluded from early-stage planning, reducing buy-in. In many cases, a lack of communication or failure to link technology to real operational bottlenecks leads to disengagement at the ground level. This friction reveals a broader issue: mining organizations have historically treated technology and culture as separate domains, when in fact they are deeply interdependent. To address this, the authors propose a systems engineering approach focusing on the mining operations as a complex socio-technical system composed of people, processes, and technologies. Systems engineering offers tools and frameworks for mapping interactions, aligning incentives, designing for feedback and adaptation, and integrating change across organizational boundaries. Specifically, besides technical requirements, it demands treating culture not as an afterthought or side-effect, but as a design variable that must be intentionally shaped alongside infrastructure and workflows. This paper explores how this approach can be applied in practice, by analysing a real-world case scenario where resistance to innovation was overcome not by technical capabilities alone, but through alignment of stakeholder incentives, thoughtful communication, and cultural integration. A particular focus is set on the adoption journey of the Powerbit X, a drill bit technology with significant potential for operational and environmental gains.

Feb 22, 2026

By R. B. Elver

The level of steel consumption per capita is one of the principal indicators of a country's standard of living. It is no coincidence that the materially advanced nations possess viable iron and steel industries to provide a reliable and economic source of steal for the manufacturing industries. No other metal is as dominantly important in manufacturing as steel. The blast furnace - steel furnace complex based on coking coal, ferrous scrap and iron ore - continues to be the principal steel-producing method. Less important is the electric furnace method based on scrap, In recent years, there has been considerable interest in the many direct reduction processes that are not dependent on coking coal but usually produce a product for further refining in steel furnaces. No matter which series of processes are used, iron ore is essentially the only source of virgin iron units. Thus, to such a vital and capital-intense industry as steel, access to a relatively inexpensive, long- term supply of iron ore is essential.

Jan 1, 1964

By Dushasan Kundu, B. N. Shivakiran Bhaktha, Khanindra Pathak, Sarbojit Mukherjee

Mine safety and quality of life of miner working in underground mines depend to a large extent on mine illumination and communication. The provisioning of reliable, safe, and cost-effective illumination is critical, particularly in underground gassy coal mines. To prevent firedamp explosion by electrical switching operation in coal mining industry requires implementing intrinsically safe illumination circuit. The luminaire design also needs to be certified and installed properly. The current illumination systems installed inside mines require a lot of energy which is obtained from nonrenewable resources. In this work, the design and implementation of solar-powered optical fiber-based illumination are studied and implemented in the Jhanjra underground coal mine, Eastern Coalfield Limited, and a Li-Fi-based communication system for underground coal mines is proposed. Silicate optical fibers of various core diameters and numerical apertures are characterized for illumination applications and their efficiencies are reported. The possibility of achieving optical fiber-based solar, laser, and hybrid illuminations in underground mines is discussed. The design and fabrication of a Fresnel lens-based solar tracker for solar illumination are also presented. The optical fiber-based illumination system is installed in an underground coal mine and the illumination of over 70 lux is achieved at the work plane. Finally, optical fiber-based illumination and simultaneous basic Li-Fi communication are demonstrated and will be beneficial to the underground coal mining industry.

Apr 14, 2023

By Richard B. Stein

Section 25 has been assembled to give the geological, mining, or metallurgical engineer an overview of some of the important downstream operations that typically follow mining activities. This subject is obviously too broad and complex to be covered in detail within this Handbook. However, the engineer will be interested to learn about the basic fundamentals, and especially how they might affect the economics of the total project from prospecting and mining through to metals recovery and marketing. In this way, it is hoped that the engineer will have a better overall appreciation for the technical and commercial prospects of a mining and metal-producing project.

Jan 1, 2008

By M. R. Hieb, J. R. Britt, S. P. Harteis, M. J. Sapko, E. S. Weiss, R. K. Zipf

The design requirements for mine ventilation seals have undergone a radical transformation in recent years, and these revisions have greatly increased the cost of the seal designs and their construction. For example, in the past two years, new federal regulations have increased the minimum design requirement to withstand explosion pressures from 138 kPa (20 psig) to 345 kPa (50 psig) or 827 kPa (120 psig), depending on whether the sealed mine volume is monitored continuously or not. Moreover, there is still a possibility that under certain conditions (such as detonations), even higher pressure requirements may be necessary. The ability of a monolithic, stand-alone mine seal to reliably withstand the full range of possible explosion pressures is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive. In an effort to develop a practical alternative, the West Virginia Office of Miners’ Health Safety and Training (WVOMHST) and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) have collaborated in a research effort to develop a practical, economic and safe mine sealing technique that can enable mine seals to meet the full range of new explosion pressure design requirements. The basic idea is to use a barrier of common mine gob and rubble, in combination with a conventional mine seal, so that the pressure resulting from a gas explosion is reflected, absorbed and attenuated, and the pressure on the ventilation seal is reduced. This paper discusses some concepts and preliminary test results for a “passive mine blast attenuator” (PMBA) that can provide a useful alternative to increasingly larger and stronger stand-alone mine seals. Numerical models and full-scale experiments conducted at the NIOSH Lake Lynn Laboratory Experimental Mine (LLEM) show that the use of a PMBA can signficantly reduce the blast pressure and impulse on conventional ventilation seals.

Jan 1, 2009

By Hakan Uyguçgil, Beril Bayraktar, Adnan Konuk

Mining is one of the industries with the highest risk of occupational accidents in Turkey and globally. The most important feature that distinguishes the mining industry from other sectors is the constantly changing working conditions. The risk of accidents is very high, especially in underground mining, and can happen for several reasons. Therefore, it is essential to carry out all necessary measures in coordination with other disciplines to adapt to changing workplace conditions. The dangers that might occur underground must be determined in advance, controlled at their source, or eliminated since it is critical to take the necessary precautions before the accident. Accident prevention will protect miners’ living conditions by contributing to the country’s economy through reduced labour and production losses. In this research, the data from 13,653 accidents reported in the Karadon Hard Coal Enterprise between 2000 and 2011 were analysed and compared using the Life Table and the Kaplan-Meier methods. Accident records were classified and analysed into four categories: environmentalrelated accidents, equipment-related accidents, person-related accidents, and other accidents. Findings in terms of survival time indicate that environment-related and person-related accidents had the highest risk in Karadon, with equipment-related accidents having the lowest. This study established the reliability of using survival analysis methods to investigate occupational accidents in the mining sector. Given that environment-related and person-related accidents occur in a relatively short period, such as 1 year after starting work, it has been recommended that research be done to improve workplace and occupational safety measures and broaden the training given to miners. Additionally, it has been determined that increasing the use of automation and mechanisation in underground coal mines, combined with developing a thorough equipment safety training programme to raise awareness of the danger, can help prevent person-related occupational accidents caused by the interaction between equipment.

Aug 5, 2023

By Chen-Luh Lin, Jan D. Miller, Sindhoora Puvvada

The depletion of good-quality phosphate resources, coupled by a need to supply acceptable products at a rapid rate, while meeting the specifications of fertilizer chemical plants, is of significant concern to the phosphate industry, particularly the production of concentrates with tolerable dolomite content. Tremendous efforts have been made in the past to develop an efficient and economical process that can effectively reject dolomite. However, dolomite removal continues to plague the phosphate industry due to several process-specific challenges being encountered with various beneficiation technologies. In this regard, detailed characterization of phosphate reserves is crucial to understand textural limitations and help design appropriate strategies to achieve quality products. In this paper, the development of procedures to establish dolomite rejection/francolite recovery curves for gravity preconcentration of pebble phosphate from Central Florida is described using high-speed X-ray computed tomography (HSXCT). The developed procedure is illustrated with the analysis of high MgO pebble phosphate samples (10.39 mm × 1 mm) received from South Pasture and Four Corners locations operated by the Mosaic company. The rejection/recovery curves were calculated for each sample for five different particle size classes to observe the trend in rejection/recovery with variation in particle size. In order to evaluate the reliability of the HSXCT data, analysis using the high-resolution X-ray computed tomography (HRXCT) technique was performed on one particular sample (FC-3-1). Finally, to assess the separation efficiency, the HSXCT and HRXCT rejection/recovery curves obtained were compared to experimental gravity preconcentration results reported in the literature. In this way, liberation limitations for gravity preconcentration in the processing of pebble phosphate have been established based on X-ray computed tomography analysis.

By Mehmet Guney

Acceptable working environments in production areas and service openings of Mindola Mine on the Zambian Copperbelt are currently maintained with an air volume of 1000 cu m/s and 5500 kW of installed refrigeration plant. It is planned to open up additional deeper areas of the mine for future production. Temperature problems, due to the increased heat generation from various underground sources are recognized as potential hinderances to efficient production. Findings of research work indicate that the present total heat output of 58,000 kW will inevitably increase by the second five-year period of the deepening program to 52,900 kW and by the fifth five-year period to 63,200 k\V. Estimated WB and DB temperatures, representing the total heat generation in stope faces and development headings during these same periods are predicted to increase to 53.8/40.2 °C and 35.5/42.1 °C respectively. It is assessed that the nominal refrigeration capacity needs to be progressively increased to 9,000 k\V This paper deals with the thermal problems in Mindola Mine, current heat output calculations, future prediction of temperature and heat load in various working areas of the mine with the application of computer programs and interpretation of data in order to find the effective solution for long-term planning of ventilation and air-conditioning.

Jan 1, 1982

By D. R. Willmer, E. J. Haas

"DISCLAIMER The findings and conclusions in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Reference to specific brand names does not imply endorsement by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. ABSTRACT This study analyzed the publicly available health and safety policies of 26 mining companies to determine the quantity of health and safety (H&S) practices that mining companies encourage in relation to the Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle. A thematic content analysis of the policies identified elements and practices within the text. On average, companies communicated information on about 7 elements (range 1–14, standard deviation = 3.49) and discussed 15 practices (range 2–34, standard deviation = 9.13). The elements in which companies highlighted the most practices were risk management, emergency management, leadership development, and occupational health. A discussion of the policy trends shows areas that mine sites can improve upon within their Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle, in addition to encouraging the use of both leading and lagging indicators to manage health and safety performance. INTRODUCTION Mining companies and their employees are expected to identify and manage risks at their worksites to ensure the health and safety (H&S) of everyone at the site. The primary mechanism in place to control these risks is a company’s health and safety management system (HSMS) (Boyle, 2012). Broadly, an HSMS is a set of standard, interrelated, and interacting elements used to promote and achieve occupational H&S goals (ANSI/AIHA Z-10, 2012; BS OHSAS 18001, 2007). The practices conveyed within an HSMS are expected to minimize incidents, injuries, illnesses, and even save worker lives (Alsop and LeCouteur, 1999; Arocena and Núñez, 2010). In the United States, both the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) regulate and encourage aspects of an HSMS (US Federal Register, 2011, 2010). Many HSMS documents (i.e., Chemical Industries Association, 1995; Health and Safety Executive [HSE], 1995; International Labour Office [ILO], 2001) attribute the source of their basic management system to Deming’s Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) model of continuous quality improvement and organize their practices within this cycle (Johnson, 2002). The PDCA cycle is a well-adopted approach in health and safety management and promotes continuous learning and adaptability (Robson et al., 2007)."

Jan 1, 2018

By J. A. Herbst

Ball mill grinding circuits can be subject to upsets that arise from variable characteristics of the feed ore. These upsets are transients in critical circuit variables such as ball mill mass holdup, circulating load, sump level, cyclone efficiency and product particle size. They may occur frequently so that the operation is continuously fluctuating or they may be of such magnitude that some of the equipment is overloaded, resulting in shutdown, or an undesirable product particle size. The feed ore characteristics that influence ball mill circuit behavior in this manner include the grindability of the ore, the eventual transport characteristics of the ore in the mills and the feed ore size distribution. Control strategies for grinding circuits using conventional proportional-integral (PI) control have limitations to their effectiveness in controlling against feed ore disturbances. The first of these are the interactive nature of two or more control loops on a single circuit. Under some circumstances they begin to fight each other, increasing control error and settling time. PI control loop gain constants can be tuned to give best response for some set of conditions but once these change, as they would with a change in the feed ore, they are no longer the "best" ones (Shinsky, 1967). Due to these limitations, alternatives to conventional PI control strategies have been investigated for grinding as well as other mineral processing operations. These alternatives, all computer-based, include self tuning regulators, decoupling control and optimal control (Herbst and Bascur, 1983).

Jan 1, 1984

By P. O. Lindahl

The U.S. Bureau of Mines initiated research to improve the safety and efficiency of transporting coal from deep underground mines using a balanced air-lift hydrohoist. A 50-m-high pilot-scale model was constructed and tested to evaluate the feasibility of hydraulically hoisting a coal-water slurry in a U-tube pipeline from the mine level to the surface with the assistance of compressed air. A prototype screw feeder is used to continuously compact and inject 5-cm or less run-of-mine coal into a pressurized 20-cm-diam pipeline. Production rates up to 40 metric tph at an airflow of 1.5 m3/min were achieved with the model, and coal size degradation was relatively minor. Modifications are in progress to achieve 100 tph at an airflow of 2.8 standard m3/min injected into the riser pipe. Pilot-scale results indicate that an air-lift hydrohoist system is a feasible, cost-effective alternative to conventional skip hoisting that can be installed in existing shafts or surface-drilled holes closer to the face area. Air-lift hydrohoisting offers advantages of infinitely adjustable slurry flow rates, reduced pressure at the point of coal injection, and flexible design that can be combined with hydraulic pumping. Proposed design changes are discussed for coal transport, mine layouts, ventilation, fire control, and escapeways using this system.

Jan 1, 1995

By Chester O. Ensign

The White Pine Mine is situated in the southwestern portion of the Keweenaw Peninsula of Upper Michigan approximately 6 miles south of Lake Superior (Fig. 1). It is east of the Porcupine Mountains in Ontonagon County. The ore deposit is about 70 miles southwest of the famous native copper deposits of the "Copper Country" lying northeast of Houghton. Geological conditions are different at every mine and create a special set of problems in dilution control. This paper is largely intended to describe the techniques applied in mine dilution control (grade control) at White Pine, and present results of the program. For necessary background information major geologic characteristics of the deposit, particularly those that exert control over the distribution of ore, are briefly discussed. Mining methods are described in considerable detail since applied grade control techniques are adapted to these.

Jan 1, 1964

By F. A. Campbell

This paper reports on mineral facies, ore textures, distribution of iron in sphalerites, and fractionation of sulfur isotopes in the Anvil ore body, Yukon Territory, Canada. Because the detailed structure and stratigraphy, both regional and local, are being studied by the geological staff at the mine and members of the Geological Survey of Canada, these topics will be discussed only briefly. The results of our study of the Anvil ore body have implications on theories of the genesis of ore deposits of this type, and these will be discussed. The Anvil ore body is the largest and most significant of three lead-zinc discoveries in an area of the central Yukon where major lead-zinc deposits were unknown only twenty years ago. The Vangorda deposit consisting of 22 million tons was discovered in 1953, followed in 1954 by the Swim Lakes deposit consisting of 10 million tons. The Anvil deposit, which consists of three ore zones, was discovered in 1964. The total reserve at Anvil mine is 63.5 million tons, with an average grade of 3.4% lead, 5.7% zinc, 0.16% copper and 1.2 ounces of silver per ton. This study is concerned primarily with the number one ore body which is about 2,400 feet long, up to 1,100 feet wide and 300 feet thick.

Jan 1, 1973

By M. E. Rossi, J. A. Bassan, J. B. Novillo

Sampling and geological models are the basis of recoverable resources models. They are pillars of mineral resources and reserves estimation, and what geostatistical methods for grade estimation should rely upon. The resource model is best estimated if geostatistical methods make good use of sound geologic models. Data collection from the original drill holes, including field procedures and the quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of those samples are pillar one of a resource model. The second pillar of the model is the good use of the logged geological information, resulting robust geological interpretations, and the corresponding three-dimensional models of those interpretations. These models are partly subjective and mostly conditioned by the quality of logging and the geologist’s experience. They are also conditioned by the quality of the three-dimensional models built, regardless of the modeling method employed, traditional or implicit. Grade estimation is more commonly done by applying some geostatistical method and using the two basic sources of information, data and geologic model. Multiple stages are involved in this process, and in all of them there are uncertainties and risks that have to be dealt with. Knowledge, understanding, interpretation, and management of the model’s fundamentals are critical, given that they directly affect its accuracy and predictive quality. The mitigation of related risks allows for the creation of opportunities, generating value and reducing the project’s uncertainty. This paper discusses some of the key variables, uncertainties, and risks involved in the resource modeling process, illustrating with specific examples; discusses possible risk mitigation alternatives, and proposes best practices to avoid or mitigate those uncertainties. Emphasis is placed on taking advantage of technological advances without ignoring fundamentals. INTRODUCTION In the area of mineral resource estimation, one alarming trend that these authors have observed in the past 20 years or so is that the care and diligence in checking the work as it progresses has generally diminished. This is, perhaps, an unintended consequence of the availability of new technologies and tools that attempt simplify and speed up the work involved. This has led to a more casual attitude towards checks and balances that have to be in place at any given stage of the process before proceeding to subsequent stages, as best practices dictate. To some extent, some of these aspects are covered in international standards for resource estimates reporting (JORC, 2012; CIM, 2010). But these are broad, and do not specifically recommend best practices to a level of detail that would have an impact on certain aspects of the process. There are numerous references in the geology and mining journals and conferences that discuss the consequences of poor recoverable resource models (Baker and Giacomo, 1998; Vaughan, 1997).

Jan 1, 2019

By Richard L. Gordon

At almost no time since the end of World War I has the coal industry been free from serious threats to its competitive position. At present, the critical question is whether the industry can maintain its position in the electric power market and this paper reviews the prospects in this area. Our report is part of a study, supported by Resources for the Future Inc., dealing with coal demand in general. Like most elements of coal economics, it has received much less analysis than problems in other energy sectors--a defect we felt worth correcting. We have concentrated on electric power elements of the market. The nature of the coal market makes this the natural choice. Three markets absorb over 80 per cent of coal production and are considered in our overall work. The completely excluded sectors are largely catchall categories in which coal use is declining anyway. Comparing the three markets included in the overall study, we see: modest growth is the most optimistic forecast for metallurgical coke; export growth depends to a large extent on policies of foreign governments. Electric power use, however, has rapidly grown to absorb over half of coal output and coal's prospects depend almost entirely on continued expansion of this market. Throughout the 1960's the demand for coal used to generate electrical power in the United States grew at an average rate of 6.5 per cent annually. This growth rate will be sustained until at least 1976.

Jan 1, 1971