Search Documents

By N. Aouad

Dump truck operators are exposed to whole-body vibration (WBV) levels that exceed the International Standard Organization (ISO) 2631-1. The WBV level measured by RMS acceleration value, for operator comfort, and long-term health and safety is under 0.315 m/s2 by these standards. However, fundamental research by Frimpong and Aouad (2009, 2012) and field experimental study by Kumar (1999) have shown that operators are exposed to extreme WBV levels exposing them to injuries and musculoskeletal diseases in the long-term. These extreme WBV values in the vertical direction are equal to 3.56 m/s2, 1.12 m/s2 and 0.87 m/s2 for the operator?s seat, lower-back and cervical regions, respectively. This paper will outline current research to solve these problems. Keywords: WBV, Truck Vibrations, MSC.ADAMS, Virtual Prototyping

Feb 27, 2013

By David G. Thompson

There are basically two commonly used methods of drying washed coal. They are mechanical drying (sometimes called dewatering) and thermal drying. The common methods of mechanical drying are by using vibrating screens, cross flow screens, sieve screens or Vor-Siv, vacuum filters and centrifugal dryers. With thermal drying, the common types include direct fired fluid bed, rotary drum, flash or suspension, vertical tray or cascade continuous carrier or vibrating fluid bed dryers and hollow screw dryers. In the past, it has more or less been a general rule that any time the total product is being washed, both mechanical and thermal drying was required. The reason for this was that a product moisture of 3 to 4% was required and thermal drying was and is the only practical method by which this can be accomplished. With the advent of air pollution controls and the ever increasing concentration on dust elimination, a 3 to 4% moisture product is no longer practical in either the preparation plant or in the processing plants which utilize the coal. Under the new standards, it is desirable to have a product with a 6.5 to 7% surface moisture. With this moisture range, dusting, due to handling, will bc kept at a minimum.

Jan 1, 1975

By M. Dobbins

The advent of the more efficient and effective rare-earth roll (RER) separator in the early 1980?s began a new era of dry magnetic separation. The RER units quickly became the separator of choice within the materials processing industry. Though RER separators are now commonplace throughout the world, only modest advancements have been made to the original design. This paper details recent, more significant, rare-earth magnetic separation developments. These developments maintain the best features of existing technology while minimizing shortcomings. The discussion includes discerning features that aid in better metallurgical performance. Also discussed are improved mechanical aspects that allow for both easier operation and maintenance. Performance details from various test programs are included.

Jan 1, 2009

By W. K. Katoto

The Tailings Leach Plant (TLP) of the Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Ltd at Nchanga was commissioned in 1974 as the world's first largest successfully operated agitation leach SX-EW plant for copper production. The design, development and operation of the plant soon after commissioning termed as TLP stage II has been described by Holmes et al (1). In the initial phase the plant was designed to treat approximately 25,000 tonnes per day of current flotation tailings from the Nchanga Concentrator operations, and had a design capacity to produce 75,000 tonnes per annum of copper. Further expansion took place in 1986, and TLP stage III was successfully commissioned to treat an additional 20,000 -25,000 tonnes per day of large reserves (over 135m tonnes) of reclaimed tailings stockpiled since the early 1930's in four paddock type tailings dams (T01 to T04). The salient feature of TLP stage III expansion described by S K Mwenechanya et al (2 -3) was the installation of the world's largest Horizontal Belt Filter Plant with 26 filters each of 80 m2 filtration area.

Jan 1, 1996

By Joseph J. Yancik

An exchange of coal mine specialists was made with the USSR under an "Agreement on Exchanges and Cooperation in Scientific, Technical, Cultural, and other Fields for 1972-73," which was signed by President Nixon and Chairman Breshnev on April 11, 1972.* This exchange, in the field of coal mine safety and scientific research in hazard control technologies, was one of 16 technical exchanges covered under the above agreement. A six-man USA delegation visited the Soviet Union from September 9 to September 21, 1973. The delegation visited four deep mines, three in the Donets Basin and one in the Moscow Basin, a State Safety Research Institute, a Mine Research Station and associated Research and Design Institute, two Research and Design mining equipment institutes, and a Trade Union-sponsored health sanitarium. In Moscow, the delegation received a briefing on the Soviet coal industry from First Deputy Minister Vladimir Fedanov. A similar briefing was given to us on the Donets coal basin by the Deputy Minister S. Saratikyanz of the Ukrainian Coal Ministry. Lengthy technical discussions were held with the mines staff and research personnel at the institutes we visited. In addition, we had detailed discussions with key staff members of two combinats "Donetskugol" and "Tulaugol." In all these meetings, principal topics were matters of safety related to hazards associated with face mechanization, coal transport, methane gas control measures, gas outbursts, coal and rock outbursts, fire fighting add control, explosion suppression and control measures and other related hazard factors. There was also much discussion on miner training, miner's attitudes toward safety and accident prevention practices, and preparation and enforcement of safety rules and regulations. The delegation was very warmly received and constant attention was given to our needs. Our numerous questions were answered with candor although quite often in not as much detail as we would have liked.

Jan 1, 1974

By H. Kinilakodi

In 2008, the authors developed a methodology for assessing underground coal mines for high risk for major-hazard events. It focused on major hazard-related violations of safety standards associated with high-risk conditions. Later using a sample of 103 mines with 2008 and 2009 data, injury measures and MSHA citation data were combined into a Safe Performance Index (SPI). The SPI was used to assess the relative safety-related risk of mines, including by mine-size category. In this paper, comparisons are made of SPI-associated, normalized safety performance measures across mine-size categories, with emphasis on small-mine safety performances as compared to large and medium-sized mines.

Jan 1, 2011

By Robert Martinez

A proven high grade reserve of gold mineralization located in Mexico is evaluated to determine which gold recovery process is best suited for this deposit. The processes evaluated are; Heap leaching, Vat leaching and a CIP circuit. All qualify as viable options, however each one presents a different economic picture which is impacted substantially by the financial constraints of the project. Taking this into consideration the most economic process was selected.

Jan 1, 1987

By S. Shaw

There is an increasing requirement for mines to meet a certain minimum criteria for sustainability within the context of the physical environment, ecosystem and socio-economic system in which they are located. The mining industry has wrestled to develop methods for assessing the ‘sustainability’ value of a mining project and indicators of ‘sustainability success’. A methodology for the evaluation of sustainability of a mining project using the Multiple Accounts Analysis (MAA) system was developed. The MAA is a platform for engagement of stakeholders and for the assessment of site-specific alternatives based on both qualitative and quantitative indicators of success.

Jan 1, 2004

By Ireneusz Tomza, Jolanta Lebecka

INTRODUCTION Radioactive deposits were observed in 1972 in some of the Upper Silesian coal mines. They were located mainly in the drains in galeries and on the inside surfaces of water pipes. They also caused some problems by accumulating in water pumps. It has been postulated that the deposits are produced by natural radioactive waters seeping from the rocks. Investigations were initiated to answer the following questions: - What is the composition and the amount of radioactivity in the deposits? - What radioisotopes are present in the water? - How are the radioactive deposits formed? - Do the radioactive waters also occur in other mines? - How does the radioactivity of the water depend on chemical composition? - What is the origin of the radioactive water? - Does the water and the deposits cause radiation hazards for miners? -How can the radiation hazard be reduced? METHODS OF MEASUREMENT Determination of Radium Isotopes in Water The commonly used methods of radium determination in water are either based on measurements of the radioactivity of 222Rn which is in equilibrium with 226Ra, or on the detection of alpha particles of the radium radioisotopes after chemical separation of radium from the water sample. The method based on radon activity measurements is very sensitive and does not require any chemical Separation, but it can be used for determination of 226Ra from the uranium series only, because the thorium daughter 220Rn has too short a half-life (55s to yield the required accuracy. The method developed by Goldin, 1961 [2] involved alpha-particle measurements in thin layers of RaS04 and BaS04 separated from the water. This method is not convenient for saline water and water with high barium concentration because the amount of barium carrier in this case is too large to obtain a thin layer of precipitate with sufficient activity. The Upper Silesian carboniferous waters are often saline with high barium content, so the method described by Goldin was not convenient for this case and it was necessary to change the detection system and modify the chemical preparation. The procedure developed by the authors for the determination of radium isotopes in water was as follows: - Depending on the Ba2+ content and the required sensitivity of measurement, a water sample of 200 cm3 to 3 dm3 was taken. - 10 cm3 of 0.25 M citric acid and 5 cm3 15M ammonia was added to form complex Ba2+ ions and avoid the immediate precipitation of BaSO4. (This was repeated as long as the addition of BaC12 did not form a precipitate.) - 1 cm3 of 1N solution of Pb(N03)2 as a carrier for radioactive isotopes of lead and 10 cm3 of 0.1 N BaC12 as a carrier for radium were added. - The sample was heated to the boiling point and the precipitation of RaS04, BaSO4 and PbS04 with 50% H2SO4 was carried out. - After several hours the sample was centrifuged and the precipitate was purified by washing with nitric acid and distilled water. - The precipitate was then redisolved in 20 cm3 0.125 M Na2EDTA and 3 cm3 6M ammonia and reprecipitated from the solution by dropwise addition of acetic acid to d pH of 4.5. At this value of pH, precipitation occurs only for the barium and radium sulfates, while lead and all other radioactive elements remain in the solution. The date and time of deposit precipitation was recorded. - The final barium-radium sulfate mixture was washed with distilled water and transferred to standard measurement vials. - Each vial containing a deposit had 6 cm3 of distilled water added and was then shaken vigorously. 12 cm3 of liquid gelling scintillator (INSTA-GEL UNISOLV-1 type) was then added and the vi 1 was shaken again. After a while the scintillator turns into a milky gel in which the deposit is uniformly distributed. - The standard sample of 226Ra was prepared in the same way. - The activity of the samples was measured using a liquid scintillation spectrometer. (In this case the TRICARB 3320 produced by Packard Instruments, was used). Tests run on standard radium solutions provided by Amersham Radiochemical Centre indicated that this method of measurement enables one to achieve an efficiency of almost 100% (within measurement error). For alpha particles no quenching effect was observed for the BaS04 concentration in the range up to 80 mg of BaS04 per 1 cm3 of liquid scintillator coctail (Fig. 1). This provides a sensitive determination of radium in water with high barium content and also in saline water. In saline water the solubility of barium sulfate is much higher than in

Jan 1, 1981

By T. Yalcin

It is well recognized that machine type and machine characteristics play vital roles in the successful application of froth flotation in mineral processing. Since the early 1900s, a multitude of machine designs have been and are still being introduced in an attempt to improve flotation efficiency. Machines based on mechanical agitation have been the most dominant in industrial practice. However, in recent years there has been a growing interest in pneumatic flotation units because of their claimed simplicity, low cost, high throughput and good metallurgical performance. This work was carried out to assess the effectiveness of pneumatic flotation on a magnetite ore. The method was applied using a prototype pneumatic flotation device that utilized a suitable nozzle for bubble generation. Important variables of the process were examined and optimized, including the nozzle size, air flow rate and froth thickness. Further tests were conducted to determine the influence of frother dosage and to explore the improvements that could be made on concentrate grade and recovery by cleaning and scavenging. Under the best test conditions, an iron concentrate was obtained with a grade of 66.4% Fe and a recovery of 97.7%. Particularly, the recovery was superior in comparison to that of mechanical flotation. This was attributed to the ability of pneumatic flotation to create and maintain a relatively thick froth layer.

Jan 1, 2002

By William H. Hansmire

The Modified Detroit River Outfall No. 2 (MOD DRO-2) will discharge treated wastewater to the Detroit River. Construction of a 6.4-m-diameter, 1.9-km-long tunnel was halted in 2003 by flooding during tunneling with an open face hard rock TBM. A new design for a higher rock tunnel, a ?Modified? design, was completed in 2007 and Notice to Proceed to the tunnel contractor was given in November 2008. Project duration is four years for completion of tunneling and start of outfall tunnel operation. This tunneling project has high groundwater pressure (5 bar), pervious limestone rock of up to 140 MPa (20,000 psi) strength, and hydrogen sulphide in the groundwater. The new tunnel will be connecting to access shafts and outfall diffuser riser shafts previously built for the now-abandoned tunnel. The new tunnel design construction contract, and initial planning to use a pressurized-face (slurry) hard rock TBM are presented.

By S. K. Sahoo, S. K. Sharma, U. K. Singh, G. S. P. Singh

This research focuses on the strata control issues in a Bord and Pillar depillaring working under the influence of dead load condition of voluminous and fragmented softcover of overburden dump material. It reports the modeling of a mine working through the FLAC 2D software under the Indian geo-mining conditions. The modeling results of an actual mine working under softcover were compared with that under the intact overburden condition to assess the influence of the soft overburden over the depillaring working. The modeling work involved progressive caving of the strata and the cyclic goaf filling following the modelsimulated occurrence of main fall and periodic caving. Mohr-Coulomb Failure criteria along with a simplified strain-softening (MCSS) model was used to study the failure and caving mechanism. Salamon’s compaction model was used to simulate compaction and resultant stress recovery in the goaf material. Comparison of the model findings was done in terms of load on supports, abutment stress, and convergence, apart from the stress redistribution and failure mechanism. The load transfer mechanism of the soft overburden was also studied for an overall understanding of the strata behavior in such workings.

Jun 16, 2020

By S. D. Bechtel

Bechtel Civil and Minerals, Inc., one of the Bechtel group of companies, is a large engineering and construction firm that services the mining industry, among others. The firm's head, S. D. Bechtel Jr., comments on how his E&C company is dealing with the recessionary economy. First, he offered a historical perspective. About a half century ago-in the middle of the Great Depression-W. A. Bechtel and several business partners drew up a fixed price bid to build the Hoover Dam. At that moment in history, the W. A. Bechtel Co. was a modest success, but the times were troubled and uncertain. Money was scarce and a lot of contractors across the country were one project ahead of bankruptcy. The bid for Hoover was a make-or-break proposition for Bechtel, and it turned out successfully. The Hoover Dam was a no-frills operation in an isolated and harsh environment. There was plenty of hard work, long hours, and not many amenities. Controlling costs was critical. Everyone knew what had to be done, and why and what the consequences were. Today's Challenge Bechtel is now a bigger, more complex organization whose management views the current economic recession as a challenge to be met in much the same way W. A. Bechtel met the challenge of the Hoover Dam: by pulling together with a sense of purpose and direction. In many respects, Bechtel's situation today has a number of parallels to that which faced my grandfather. The company is eminently successful, but times are tough and there are plenty of signs that they could get tougher. My grandfather bet on the Hoover Dam to insure the future health of his company and I think we can work together again in that same tradition, make some tough decisions together, and the company's future can be just as promising. The first and most important requirement is to make certain that everyone understands the situation. The Bechtel group of companies are in an excellent financial position now. Its workload hit an alltime high in 1982 and it is well positioned in its principal markets. But the next two years may be critical for the company. Traditionally, Bechtel's work load lags behind general developments in the economy. Although many of its clients continue to suffer serious business difficulties, Bechtel is only beginning to feel the impact. The worldwide market for basic metals remains soft; relatively low prices and abundant supplies of oil and gas have flattened the petroleum market and made once promising synfuels projects economically unattractive; utility clients are still caught in the vise between overregulation and escalating costs. And persistently high, long-term interest rates have made capital investments expensive and difficult to justify. The company maintained a healthy workload through 1982. In some areas it has had little new work and consequently has been forced to lay off some staff as projects have been canceled or concluded. In other areas new work has tided the company over and more people have been hired. But new work bookings have fallen off, creating some uncertainty for the near future. 1983 requirements are clear, although seemingly contradictory. Belt tightening and cost reduction are necessary for Bechtel to remain healthy and competitive, enabling it to handle a possible further downturn with a minimum of turmoil and dislocation. At the same time, we need to allocate resources and funds in areas that will keep us positioned for the turn-around marketplace.

Jan 2, 1983

PolyMet Mining is developing the NorthMet property near Duluth, Minnesota. Laboratory investigations had led to the development of the PLATSOL process to dissolve in one step the base metals (copper and nickel) as well as the gold and PGM’s. To complete the pre-feasibility study, a fully integrated ten-day pilot plant trial was undertaken, comprising of: high temperature (>220ºC) pressure oxidation in the presence of 5-10 g/L chloride (the PLATSOL process), followed by solid/liquid separation, gold plus PGM’s recovery from solution, conventional Cu SX/EW and recycling of the copper raffinate to the autoclave. The concentrate tested was a NorthMet bulk flotation concentrate assaying 14.7% Cu, 3.05% Ni, 0.14% Co, 26.7% S, 1.4 g/t Au, 2.2 g/t Pt and 9.9 g/t Pd. Laboratory results were fully confirmed and with minor adjustments of the laboratory PLATSOL® conditions, the following leach extractions were obtained during the pilot plant trial: Cu 99.6%, Ni 98.9%, Co 96%, Pd 94.6%, Pt 96% and Au 89.4%.

Jan 1, 2001

By Thomas P. Kwiatkowski, Len Cobb, Christopher D. Orlandi, Judith H. Jones

The Inland System supplies raw water to the industrial and domestic users in the City of Birmingham, Alabama. The Inland System, which is nearly 60 years old, consists of an approximately 57.9m (190 feet) high earthen dam across the Blackburn Fork of the Black Warrior River, a 39.6m (130 feet) high reinforced concrete intake structure, a 1524mm (60inch) diameter Dresser coupled steel transmission pipeline, and various distribution lines extending into Birmingham. The Inland System was owned, operated and maintained by the Industrial Water Board (IWB) of the City of Birmingham, an agency of the city government, from 1958 until 1994. In 1994, the City of Birmingham consolidated all water and distribution functions under the Birmingham Water Works Board (BWWB). In 1988, the IWB determined that the Inland System had reached a point where its reliability could not be assured without an in-depth evaluation and renovation. The IWB engaged Christy/Cobb, Inc. (CCI) of Birmingham as its consultant for the renovation work. CCI evaluated the Inland System and submitted a report to the IWB in April, 1992. The report contained several recommendations for capital improvements to the system including increasing the emergency spillway capacity, reconstructing the fuse plug, relocating public access to the lake away from the dam area, constructing a new intake structure, and constructing a tunnel through the dam abutment to deliver the water from the proposed intake structure to the existing 1524mm (60 inch) diameter supply line. The new intake structure and tunnel would provide for a future maximum demand flow rate as well as provide bypass and level control capabilities. CCI was authorized in 1992 to proceed with the engineering design for the renovation of the Inland System with emphasis on the spillway and intake structure. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The major component of the renovation of the Inland System was the new intake structure and tunnel through the dam abutment. CCI engaged Jenny Engineering Corporation (JEC) of Springfield, New Jersey as a consultant for the tunnel design. JEC was responsible for the design of the tunnel, the connecting shaft between the intake structure and tunnel, and the steel pipe final lining, while CCI was responsible for the intake structure and the connection to the existing supply pipeline as well as overall project management. CCI and JEC evaluated the project site in order to select the location for the new intake structure and set the alignment for the tunnel. A factor in the evaluation process was that the level of the lake could not be lowered to construct the new intake structure since the supply of water from the Inland System had to maintained. Therefore, a location was required which was

Jan 1, 1997

By P. K. Kankar, Manoj Khandelwal, Ramesht Shukla

One of the utmost severe mining catastrophes in underground hard rock mines is rock burst phenomena. It can lead to damage to mine openings and equipment as well as trigger accidents or even threat to life as well. Due to this, a number of researchers are forced to study some easy-to-use alternative methods to predict the rock burst occurrence. Nevertheless, due to the extremely multifaceted relation between mechanical, geological and geometric factors of the mines, the conventional prediction methods are not able to produce accurate results. With the expansion of machine learning methods, a revolution in the rock burst occurrence has become imaginable. In present study, three machine learning methods, namely XGBoost, decision tree and support vector machine, are utilized to predict the occurrence of rock burst in various underground projects. A total of 134 rock burst events were gathered together from various published literatures comprising maximum tangential stress (MTS), elastic energy index (EEI), uniaxial compressive strength and uniaxial tensile stress (UTS) that have been used to develop various machine learning models. The performance of machine learning methods is evaluated based on the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the rock burst prediction.

Mar 17, 2021

By S. G. Malghan, V. K. Pujari

Detailed characterization of all the powder constituents during powder processing is necessary for the reproducible manufacture of ceramic components that will perform reliably in intended applications. In this paper, selected physical and surface chemical techniques for characterization of silicon nitride powder are evaluated. The characterization data are discussed in the context of how these data, through their influence on powder processing unit operations, can affect the final microstructure. In the forming of ceramics, some of the major variables of injection molding are evaluated. Accurate measurement and control of these variables is emphasized for manufacture of Si3N4 ceramics with a high degree of reliability.

Jan 1, 1990

By Robert F. Goss

OCAW appreciates the opportunity given to us by the sponsors of this Conference to present our position and policies on the issue of radiation hazards in mining. Our principal concern is the health impact that the mining of uranium has on our members. OCAW represents 1,500 underground uranium miners and more than 10,000 underground miners with 3,000 in the Rocky Mountain region. The U.S. Public Health Service has determined through mortality studies that the number one cause of death among uranium miners is lung cancer. It was also determined that exposure to radon daughters and mine dust correlates with the lung cancer experience of uranium miners. Data from the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration has also shown that not only uranium underground miners, but all underground miners, are exposed to radon daughters -- especially underground miners in the Rocky Mountain region. It is our position that any OCAW underground miner is at potential lung cancer risk. The dosages of radon daughters that our miners are exposed to are very many times the background levels of radon exposures in the communities where they live. We are also aware that cigarette smoking accelerates the onset of lung cancer; however, it has to be clear that the available scientific evidence shows that alpha radiation does initiate lung cancer and that cigarette smoke, as a recognized co-carcinogen, promotes cancer already initiated by radiation. It is true that cigarette smoke increases the risk of cancer significantly for miners exposed to radon, but nonsmoking miners have experienced lung cancer rates twice as high as the comparable members of the U.S. population. OCAW's position is that the occupational regulatory agencies should concentrate on the exposures that can be controlled; that is, occupational exposures rather than life-style exposures. Our Union has maintained a consistent posture in relation to carcinogens in the workplace -- that is, exposure to cancer-causing agents should be limited to the [lowest feasible level]. OCAW has interpreted lowest feasible level as the lower limit of detection of the collection and analytical method used to detect the carcinogen. Our posture is based on the available scientific information on carcinogenesis. We have asked the scientific community, many times, to provide us with safe levels of exposure to carcinogenic substances, including radon daughters. The answer has been: "We cannot determine levels of exposure low enough to assure that no cancer will occur." In short, there is not a "safe threshold" for any carcinogen. This statement does not come from one of the few so-called "pro-labor scientists," it comes from the National Cancer Institute and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. I don't need to be a scientific sage, then, to conclude that the lowest level of exposure corresponds to the lowest risk of developing cancer. That is, then, our policy on exposure to carcinogens. It seems there has been an attempt to ignore the fact that lung cancer in uranium miners is the principal cause of death. Uranium miners are no exception from workers exposed to carcinogens. Our policy applies to them. Uranium miners should be exposed to the lowest feasible level of radon daughters and any decrease in the permissible exposure level is a decrease in their lung cancer risk. Accordingly, OCAW has petitioned the Department of Labor for a new permissible exposure limit to radon daughters in uranium mining, which lowers the current exposure standard from 4 Working Level Months (WLM) per year to 0.7 Working Level Months per year. We made our demand to the Department of Labor on April 20, 1980. We are still awaiting action from the Federal Government on our petition. OCAW is also very concerned with other important health impacts of uranium mining. We are concerned with a rate of disabling accidents and fatalities which is twice as high as the same rate in other underground mines, excluding coal. We are also concerned with the rate of respiratory disease fatalities among uranium miners which is almost four times the rate among a comparable U.S. population. We have expressed those concerns when the U.S. Senate proposed a Federal Compensation Act for uranium miners. That proposal, by Senator Dominici of New Mexico, found a quiet death in two Congressional sessions. In conclusion, our position on lung cancer induced by radon daughters is the same position we have taken with all other industrial carcinogens: The lower the exposure, the lower the risk. OCAW is demanding a drastic decrease of the permissible exposure limits. OCAW will never accept that a segment of our membership which mines uranium should take the lion's share of the risk while the uranium mining companies take all the benefits.

Jan 1, 1981

By J. R. Maxwell

The development, commercial installation, and operating performance of large capacity Maxwell Flotation Cells. Volumes ranging from 300 cubic feet to 2,000 cubic feet per flotation mechanism.

Jan 1, 1971

By Manfred G. Raschke

INTRODUCTION In the past decade, the international coal trade has been undergoing a period of gradual change. This change will continue through the remainder of this century until by the year 2000 the international coal industry will look very different from the industry which existed in the early 1970's. The industry which will emerge from the thirty year period of change (1970-2000) will be different in many ways. -The volumes of coal transported will be much larger. - The primary type of coal traded will be steam coal rather than metallurgical coal. - A much broader group of countries will be participating in the trade both as suppliers and as consumers. - The trade will be dominated by a relatively small number of large producing and trading companies. - The coal mined for international shipment will be primarily surface- mined. – The United States will play a decreasingly important role in international coal trade. In the course of this paper I propose to address three questions which are crucial to the formulation of an understanding of the changes outlined above : (1) Which supplier nations will be most successful in the international metallurgical and steam coal trade in the next decade and a half? (2) What emerging trends will shape the international coal trade in the 1980's and 19901s? (3) Where are U.S. producers likely to fit in this scheme of things? As a background to my remarks, I should note that what follows is based on five years of work in a consulting capacity on coal supply and demand issues worldwide. Although in the course of this work I have had occasion to develop mining and transportation cost figures for all of the countries discussed below--both my own and those obtained from coal producers--it is apparent that success in the marketplace can be determined in some instances by considerations other than costs. Nevertheless, my comments today about international competitiveness will be dominated by cost considerations; there are, after all, not many markets that reward the high-cost producer with success. Let us begin by establishing some criteria for success in the international coal market and then compare some of the producer nations to some of these criteria. The criteria are: - Low delivered cost, - Good quality coal, - The producer's partnership in a joint mining venture with an importer or a consumer of coal, - The producer's international business orientation and commitment to penetrating the market, - The producer's reliability as a supplier, and - Political pressure exerted by the producing country on consumers.

Jan 1, 1986