Search Documents

By Tracy E. Barnes

The process of computerized reserve estimation consists of assuming a model of the spatial continuity of a deposit and then, working within the assumed model, estimating the grade and tonnage of the deposit. The basis for geostatistical analysis is a statistical definition of this continuity or the variogram. The true variogram is essentially impossible to define. So an experimental variogram is defined from the sample data and kriging proceeds assuming that this experimental variogram is a good approximation of the true variogram. Therefore the closer the experimental variogram is to the true variogram the better the estimate will be. Realizing that the variogram is nothing more than the definition of the spatial continuity of the deposit, taking the known geologic continuity of the deposit into account will give a superior variogram. The use of known geology is a widely recognized necessity for good structural analysis of a deposit, but is rarely fully incorporated into the structural analysis.

Jan 1, 1982

By Robert B. Hopler

Explosives research and development has historically been motivated by coal mining. Whether to solve safety problems or to improve productivity and cost, the result has been the same: better explosives products and initiation systems. Today, this process continues at an accelerated pace due to the tools presently available to the explosives and mining industries. Background Explosives have been used in coal mining since the industry's earliest days. Black powder, introduced into metal mining in 1627, undoubtedly was introduced into coal as soon as a need to replace pick work was apparent. Until the invention of the safety fuse by William Bickford in 1832, the only initiation methods available were the straw, quill and miner's squib. Disastrous explosions underground in England brought about studies on their possible causes (Atkinson, 1886). The studies showed that, while explosives contributed to the accidents, the real villain was coal dust, since that was the agent that transmitted the disaster throughout the mine workings. To improve underground safety, research was applied in an attempt to make explosives that could be safely fired in a methane air atmosphere. The Prussian government was apparently the first to establish a testing station for coal mine explosives. This occurred in 1885 (Guttmann, 1909).

Jan 1, 1993

By Steve Kral

President Bush’s National Energy Program and his Clear Skies Initiative both emphasize the use of coal to help meet the nation’s growing energy needs. And why not? Coal is currently responsible for more than 50 percent of the nation’s electricity generation. That fact, though, seems to be lost on policy makers, the environmental community and the public. Critics of coal advocate the increased use of renewable energy sources and the increased use of natural gas. Renewables, though, are only capable of generating a tiny fraction of the power required. Natural gas is expensive. And natural gas production cannot keep up with demand, especially given the nation’s increasing energy needs.

Jan 1, 2003

By E. Tulcanaza

M.S. Azun I do not at all agree with the basic points of the author's conclusion. The use of lognormal or normal model to respond to the attribute distribution function should be carefully questioned. If fitting a distribution function of regionalized variables is the main purpose, one may employ one of certain well-known families of distributions, such as Tukey's lambda functions. For instance, the distribution function of gold assay values studied by Krige (Krige, 1978) may fit the lognormal model well, but one should not exclude that the basic idea of using the distribution function of observed data is to have insight of the physical mechanism that gives rise to the regionalized variables. In Applied Geostatistics, there are many examples considering only lognormal or normal model for the distribution function of geostatistical data even if the observed distribution function has more than one mode. Of course, using lognormal or normal model always brings easy computation for the statistical properties of attribute under investigation. Still, I object to adopting any of those models without having any "statistical inference." As seen from the author's paper, lognormal and normal model produce the same average grade (0.746% copper) and almost the same sample variance. Therefore, which model explains the probabilistic behavior of ore deposit is always an important question that should be replied by the geostatistician using not the common sense but the statistical and probabilistic methods. For kriging procedures, such as linear kriging, one should describe either second order stationary properties or bivariate properties of regionalized variables. Second order properties, such as correlogram function or semivariogram function, are the inputs of the so-called kriging equations. Selecting one of any useable models for the observed second order properties, such as spherical model, is not easy since the models are not based on the correlations structure of the regionalized variables. How those models being used in Applied Geostatistics can be distinguished is another important problem. One may develop many fitting models to respond to the observed second order properties of regionalized variables. However, I suggest that the model should be based on the probabilistic behavior of geologic process. The author used spherical model for copper, wolfram, and silver grades from isotropic sector (Fig. 2, 4, 3b) and exponential model for silver grades obtained along raises in isotropic sector (Fig. 3a). It seems that those semivariograms given in Fig. 3b for isotropic sector and Fig. 4 may be described by the random model implying that regionalized variables do belong to renewal process (Azun, 1983). If I knew the total number of data points used in estimation, I may prove that my conclusion is correct. Recalling the test for the first order sample correlogram value, the test procedure is introduced such that the independence is rejected if [ ] where Za/2 is the a/2 percentile of standard normal random variable and N is the total number of samples used in estimation (Azun, 1983). For the other observed semivariogram functions I suggest the author might try to use the so-called "Markovian model" describing not only the correlation structure of regionalized variables, but also the physical mechanism that produces the regionalized variables. The Markovian model for correlogram function is, [ ] The Markovian model for the other second order properties of ReV are also derived. T ve B, in the above equation, show, for example, structural change and mineralizational variation in a considered deposit, respectively (Azun, 1983). In selecting any model, it is not easy to search for the "best" response to the observed second order properties of ReV's. The Markovian model, based on a theoretical understanding of underlying mechanism, gives more information about the occurrence of regionalized variables and respond to all properties. Random model and the so-called hole effect structure can be easily defined as a special form of the Markovian model (Azun, 1983). An estimation of any second order properties of regionalized variables may be computed through (N-1) lag. However, the dependency between the regionalized variables may be deemed to have "died out" after the so-called stationarity width (range). In practice, the estimation is carried out through 25% of the total number samples available. Therefore, the large fluctuations around the zero level and variance for correlogram or covariogram function and semi-variogram function, respectively, cannot be observed. Since the number of pairs involved in the estimation of higher second order properties is small, the estimation variance at those lags is large. There is no need to show higher order estimated second order properties. After using one of any kriging procedure for block estimation, the distribution function of average grades has the same mean as the drilling sample grades but

Jan 3, 1985

By F. L. Pierson

Since the discovery of 'potash in the Carlsbad area in 1926 and the start of mining operations in 1931, "first mining," operations have been carried on. This is a room and pillar system in which approximately 62% of the total ore is removed. Or the basis of ore reserves and rates of extraction, the life of the mine in the early; days was estimated to be well over 50 years, however, even with an increase by additional ore reserves, it became increasingly apparent that the life of the mine was being shortened considerably by increased production. Further cause for the shortening of mine life was due to the exceptionally weak back over the northeast quadrant of the main orebody which had .caved in on first mining up to a height of 8 feet. Thus, in 1953 the decision was' made to begin pillar pulling, also called, second mining or final mining, and in December of 1953 this program was started after much discussion.

Jan 1, 1965

By William P. Walsh

In December 1983 the author undertook an investigation in east Texas which was organized to learn the feasibility of applying geophysical techniques over shallow lignite deposits. The work embraced experimental high resolution seismic reflection and offset Wenner resisitivity sounds over three 1/4 to 1/2 mile test sections. This site also was sponsored by Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC) and a consortium headed by North American Coal Corporation. The principal objective of this investigation was to learn whether the aforementioned geophysical techniques could be applied over shallow lignite deposits (i.e. located at approximately 100' to 300' in depth) and consequently provide structural and stratigraphic information useful for resource and reserve characterization. A secondary objective was to determine if these same techniques could disclose the nature of the overburden and the distribution of ground water therein.

Jan 1, 1986

By P. R. Dugan

Sulfur removal from high sulfur coal has several objectives including: a) reduction of the atmospheric load that contributes to the problem of acid precipitation; b) reduction of ash, which contributes to decreased energy transfer in boilers, as well as ash disposal; and c) alleviation of the social and economic dislocations related to uneven geographical distribution of sulfur in coal reserves. Cost in relation to the value of refined coal will govern the development of an emerging coal refining industry. Estimation of the premium paid by power companies for coal with a low sulfur content is a good estimate of the value that will be added as the result of refining. Estimates of premiums paid in 1984 are $28.65/t ($26 per st) for reduction of total sulfur from 370 to 1% S and greater than $28.65/t ($26 per st) for removal below 170 sulfur.

Jan 1, 1988

By Rock M. Poulin, Bruce G. Moulton, Daniel E. Nowak, David T. Cass

The Yacambu Irrigation Tunnel Project of 34 km, 5 meter diameter circular and horseshoe section, has been under construction since the early 1970's. Notable among the excavation challenges is high ground cover of 3,000m creating large lithostatic pressures in the tunnel alignment with subsequent plastic flow of the ground in the tunnel walls. The tunnel may converge from small amounts to 1 or more meters of diameter over long sections. Several excavation techniques have been attempted but all without desired results. The paper proposes a new machine concept that uses the history of ground experience as its basis for design.

Jan 1, 1995

By P. R. Dugan

Sulfur removal from high sulfur coal has several objectives including: a) reduction of the atmospheric load that contributes to the problem of acid precipitation; b) reduction of ash, which contributes to decreased energy transfer in boilers, as well as ash disposal; and c) alleviation of the social and economic dislocations reluted to uneven geographical distribution of sulfur in coal reserves. Cost in relation to the value of refined coal will govern the development of an emerging coal refining industry. Estimation of the premium paid by power companies for coal with a low sulfur content is a good estimate of the value that will be added as the result of refining. Estimates of premiums paid in 1984 are $28.65/t ($26 per st) for reduction of total sulfur from 3’% to 1% S and greater than $28.65/t ($26 per st) for removal below 1% sulfur.

Jan 8, 1987

By Paul E. Epstein

Despite the controversies that have surrounded asbestos over the past 20 to 30 years, no knowledgeable authority has doubted the usefulness of this material. Were it not for the health risks associated with the manufacture and use of asbestos products, its physical and chemical characteristics would continue to be hailed as an undeniable boon to mankind. However, it has become clear over the past 30 years that like other major contributors to our modern industrialized society, asbestos must be handled responsibly and with the full understanding that lack of care can lead to injury, suffering and death. In this sense, asbestos shares characteristics with nuclear power, pesticides and even motor vehicle usage. It is unlikely that modern society would be willing to walk away from the benefits bestowed by any of these valuable resources. Rather, the appropriate response to the identification of danger is to define the type of risk, quantify its incidence, search for methods of decreasing the risk and implement programs to achieve the goal of minimization of risk. We should recognize at the outset that the risk cannot be diminished to zero without elimination of the material entirely from our midst. The concept of acceptable risk is a complex issue involving medical, legal, financial, moral and even psychological factors that defy precise quantification. In essence, the major danger produced by exposure to asbestos is its potential effects on the respiratory system. Despite the fact that asbestos workers have constant skin contact with the material and porbably swallow it in the course of their activities, inhalation of the fibers is recognized as the major health risk associated with its use. Aerosols of asbestos are inhaled not only by miners, millers and fabricators but also by urban dwellers who have no direct occupational contact with the material. This occurs because asbestos has been applied to our buildings and has been used in a wide variety of products that touch our daily lives. While it is estimated that three to four million people in the United States have been occupationally exposed to asbestos, the number who have been non-occupationally exposed is many times that number.

Jan 1, 1984

By William F. Riggs

The basic theme of this symposium and panel Is Rotation Pads: Are They Optimized? There Is a. reason for phrasing the title In the form of a question. There Is not only the technical competency which we must address; there Is the operating philosophy that must be evaluated on the part of both the customer and the supplier. Customers desire reagents which are trouble-free and capable of providing that extra amount of selectivity or recovery. When they receive ft, after the supplier has provided several years of Internal research, one of the first concerns/complaints Is the price of the product. This has a tendency to rapidly reduce a supplier's support level In the future. Suppliers are equally guilty from another perspective. When they approach a customer to Introduce a product, they often attempt to market by offering only a price Incentive. They then wonder why a customer doesn't respond Immediately to the incentive. They are often oblivious to the fact that the reagent cost is such a minor aspect of the operating budget, and the customer has many more pressing problems on a day-to-day basis In comparison to the reagent cost. We need to establish the understanding that reagent cost Is an Inconsequential cost of operation, and yet has such a disproportionately high Impact on the success of the entire operation. This understanding Is required by both the customer and the supplier. We say to each other,' why are we discussing this since this has been obvious for some time?' The reason is relatively simple in that we talk about it, acknowledge it, and yet we do not adhere to it. The supplier provides a product along with test data containing statistics, analysis, recovery, grade and cost calculations while most of the time ignoring the operating technique which must be applicable In the plant In order to optimize the product. He expects the reagent to be substituted In the plant for the existing reagent and ft works or does not work after trying several variables. The operating management Is equally guilty, In order to best explain this to both the customer and the supplier, ft becomes necessary to review the basic purpose of the major reagents utilized In flotation. A collector is basically to Impact selective, maximum water repellency on the surface of a particular mineral, The frother has the purpose of providing a chemically stabilized membrane on the surface of the bubble at the air-water interphase. This, then, provides a host environment for the attachment of the collector-coated mineral to a bubble. The depressant functions In the reverse of the collector and must demonstrate the same or greater degree of selectivity than expected of a collector. The key area which has been Ignored Is the rate by which these reactions occur and Interrelate. This has a very specific effect on the operating technique and the compatibility of the chemistry, equipment, and the operator himself. Researchers, suppliers, and customers provide reams of data to demonstrate how their products or design produce, for example, higher kinetics, more selectivity, or more recovery. The Information is often true. After all, we are all learned men and laboratory and actual plant data do not lie. However, we must remember the theme of this symposium and panel: Flotation Plants: Are They Optimized? and Optimizing of Flotation Reagents? The direct, honest comment to the two titles is very simple. OF COURSE THEY ARE NOT The plants, equipment, and reagents had better not be optimized or else we are in trouble. The Issue of this panel discussion is to approach this subject from a slightly different or perhaps mainly Ignored aspects of optimizing reagents in flotation. When we have reagents which provide higher kinetics, more selectivity, and better recovery, how do we use them? Since each reagent has a different physical characteristics of froth, rate of recovery, volume effect on the compatibility of equipment, and many more aspects too numerous to mention, the question which has been severely Ignored Is, 'What degree of study and cooperation by both the supplier and the operating management has been conducted In order to prepare the operator for maximizing the performance of a reagent In relation to the rest of the system?" Prior to testing a new reagent, how much time Is spent to bring the actual operator(s) Into the program to make them feel part of the program? How much time is spent explaining to the operator on the float floor how to possibly take advantage of a reagent with faster kinetics or one which Is Inherently more selective? What

Jan 1, 1993

By William A. Vogely, Robert T. Deacon, Walter J. Mead

Oil and gas together are the most important energy sources consumed in the United States. In 1983, 67% of total energy consumption was represented by these two resources (43% was oil and 25% natural gas), while coal accounted for only 23% of U.S. energy use. All other sources (hydroelectric, nuclear, geothermal, wood and other waste products) accounted for only 10% (U.S. Department of Energy, 1983, p. 1). In this chapter we address the issue of regulation in the oil and natural gas sectors of the U.S. energy industry. In addition, we analyze the cartel characteristics of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). If OPEC is an effective cartel, then U.S. oil as well as substitute energy prices, production, and consumption will be affected by cartel action. Further, as the nation learned in the 1970s, major changes in oil prices produced major disturbances in other sectors of the U.S. and world economies. Consequently, it is important to determine whether the roughly ten-fold increase in nominal prices that occurred in the 1970s was the result of cartel action, the result of normal economic forces adjusting to the fact that the world was running out of cheap oil, or some combination of the two. Furthermore, the presence of OPEC- associated oil price increases is related to regulations that were imposed on the energy sector during the decade of the 70s. THE RATIONALE FOR GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION Economists have traditionally judged the state of an economy to be efficient if it is impossible to improve the welfare of any one member of society without harming someone else. Any economy that satisfies this condition is said to be Pareto efficient, after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto who first gave rigorous attention to such questions (see Chapter 4.10). It is easy to see why an economy that fails to satisfy this condition could not be efficient; by definition, it would be possible to alter the allocation of resources in a way that improves everyone's welfare.' Much of the appeal of this weak efficiency criterion is that it avoids comparisons of levels of well being among different individuals. The cost of such generality, however, is that in any given economic system a wide array of different Pareto efficient states will typically be attainable. In the simple Robinson Cursoe economy of the undergraduate textbook, for example, efficiency could just as easily be attained in the case where most of the island's resources are owned by Friday as in the case where they are under Crusoe's control. However, the distribution of welfare among the two inhabitants would obviously be quite different in the two situations. Such equity issues cannot be settled on objective or scientific grounds. To decide which distribution of welfare is socially "best" an explicit value judgment is needed. It is useful to keep in mind the preceding distinction between efficiency and equity issues when analyzing the role of government in a market economy. Decentralized market processes will not necessarily result in a distribution of welfare that society considers just. For this reason a potential role for government lies in the redistribution of income among individuals. In some circumstances, however, market pro-

Jan 1, 1985

By M. S. Basich, J. S. Scope1, J. H. Raeder

During 1983, The Youghiogheny and Ohio Coal Company's lost-time-incidence rate was 8.1, equal to the average for underground bituminous operators. How- ever, one half of all lost-time injuries were low back, back and neck related. In reviewing these results, we determined that substantial improvement could be made. We investigated existing back schools and the possibility of opening an in-house clinic. In September 1984, we began The Youghiogheny and Ohio Coal Company's Back Care Program. The objectives of the program are to reduce the number of back injuries incurred at the work site, hasten recovery time, decrease medical and workers' compensation costs and provide the employee with a thorough understanding of his problem. A state-of-the-art clinic capable of treating injuries to the spine and extremities has been established at the work site. The clinic is staffed by a licensed physical therapist and is offered to all employees on a voluntary basis under physician referral. The approach to treatment is multi-phasic. For the typical patient, the initial goal is to reduce pain and correct dysfunction. Treatment modalities such as auto-traction, extension exercises, ultra sound and moist heat are frequently used. During this period the patient is given extensive education regarding his problem. As soon as more vigorous activity can be tolerated, a work-hardening pro- gram consisting of job simulation activities designed to improve flexibility, strength and functional capability is begun.

Jan 1, 1986

By Sterling S. Cook

The U.S. Bureau of Mines is conducting core leaching experiments with sulfuric acid on oxide copper ores from the Cyprus Casa Grande and ASARCO Santa Cruz deposits in Arizona to further our understanding of the leaching process in supergene copper ores as it relates to in situ mining. Leach solutions from atacamite mineralization contained 5 to 30 g/l copper and few extraneous ions. Leachant from chrysocolla ores, with grades similar to the atacamite, contained 2 to 9 g/l copper and abundant extraneous ions. Quartz and K-feldspar had no impact on leach solution composition at any acid concentration (up to 40 g/l) while illite and sericite had minimal impact. Biotite, calcium-rich clay and limonite have a significant impact on solution chemistry when there is abundant free acid in solution. High acid concentrations increase acid consumption in ores with abundant biotite and limonite gangue. High acid concentrations can be used in ores with quartz, K-feldspar, and sericite gangues without increasing acid consumption per unit of copper removed.

Jan 1, 1988

By Paul M. Jr. Musgrove, Thomas D. Henderson, Mark B. Nesbitt

Introduction History. Vat leaching operations began in October 1953. Since that time, about 4.2 million tpy of oxide ore averaging 0.72% copper have been treated. Economic conditions, improved operating methods, and increased production facilities have allowed the ore grade to be reduced over the years. The average ore grade was 0.84% Cu during the 1950s, 0.68% in the 1960s, and was 0.50%, or below, during the 1970s. By 1961 some 35 million tons of oxide ore had been removed from the mine, exposing the underlying sulfide ore body. A 5,000¬ tpd concentrator was constructed and put into operation to treat the sulfide ore in November 1961.1 The original crushing plants were used for both oxide and sulfide ores, but by adding a third crushing shift, six days per week, the total ore treated was raised from 12,000¬17,000 tpd. Dwindling oxide ore reserves prompted expansion of the concen¬trator to 13,500 tpd in 19672 so that exhaustion of known reserves of both ores would occur at nearly the same time. Again, no additional crushing facilities were added during the expansion. It was anticipated that the treatment rate of oxide ore would be reduced from 12,000 to about 9,000 tpd. Instead, the addition of two crushing shifts per week and improved operating procedures have increased the treatment rate to 26,500 tpd-13,000 tpd to the leaching plant and 13,500 tpd of sulfide ore treated in the concentrator. Geology. The Yerington ore body is a disseminated porphyry copper deposit where a quartz monzonite porphyry intrusive contains the major part of the ore values, with some copper mineralization found in the adjacent granodiorite and other rocks. The geology of the Yerington Mine was aptly described by J. R. Wilson (Mining Congress Journal, June 1963). The ore body is one of few porphyries where geologic conditions were optimum for the formation of an important concentration of oxidized ore with minimum economic effect of secondary enrichment. The principal mineral in the oxidized zone is chrysocolla, which irreg¬ularly occurs dispersed throughout the rock and as narrow seams along fissures. The grade of the ore in the oxidized zone is generally the same as in the primary sulfide below, although some massive concentrations do occur as vein-like fissures and as filling of breccia zones. Cuprite, tenorite, melaconite, malachite, and azurite occur but are not abundant. Lying between the chrysocolla horizon and the primary sulfide is a transition zone whose limits are irregular but seldom with vertical range exceeding 50 ft. Chalcocite, cuprite, melaconite, native copper, and chrysocolla occur superimposed on the primary sulfides. Chalcocite replacement of chalcopyrite, as well as secondary chalcocite, do occur. The primary sulfide minerals are chalcopyrite and pyrite, with minor amounts of bornite and covellite. There are no appreciable gold or silver values, and molybdenite has rarely been noted.

Jan 1, 1985

By John B. Spencer

Earlier this year, Simplot Phosphates achieved a safety milestone at its Vernal, UT phosphate operations. In March, the entire operation reached achieved seven years without a lost time accident. And the mine operations at Vernal reached the 1 million hours benchmark without a lost time accident. This million hour achievement has been 19 years in the making. This achievement reflects the mine’s strong attitude towards safety, the company said. Safety is an integral part of its culture and requires diligence and considerable work. Attention to even the smallest of details cannot be allowed to slip. This is a record Simplot Phosphates said it hopes to improve on every day.

Jan 1, 2004

By Mike Wardell-Johnson, Chris Campbell-Hicks, Craig Bitmead

Faster, simpler, cheaper and more accurate cyanide ex­tractable gold procedures are now available for grade control assay. Cyanide 'bulk leach extractable gold' or BLEG assays have previously been seen as desirable, due to the large sample size that can be treated, but not in common use due to the 24hr total assay time required. Sample sizes from 50g to several kilos can now be accurately assayed in less than 4 hours total time with the larger sample size increasing accuracy, without loss of precision, while greatly reducing the 'nugget effect' or coarse gold bias. Typical assay size is 200g, equivalent to 4 x 50g Fire Assays or 10 x 20g Aqua Regia Assays. Ongoing modifications and refinement of the procedures and reagents used also indicate applicability to the treatment of coarse gravity gold where substantial savings in both capital and operating costs for these circuits are possible. The successful use of this cyanide assay at the Bannockburn and Windine Well operations are cited to-gether with a compre­hensive comparative testwork program by Newcrest. Testwork at Gidgee and Lynas Gold operations is currently being initiated. Other operations using the method include Red Dome and Kidston; with Placer(Granny Smith) and PMA's Palm Springs operations to commence shortly.

Jan 1, 1995

By Todd R. Taubert, Kenneth L. Bickel

The U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) pioneered the development of disposable filters for reducing diesel particulate emissions from permissible mining machines. The USBM is now evaluating filter media that can withstand the high exhaust temperatures on nonpermissible machines. The goal of the evaluation is to find an inexpensive medium that can be cleaned or disposed of after use, and will reduce particulate emissions by 50 % or more. This report summarizes the results from screening tests of a lava rock and woven fiberglass filter media. The lava rock media exhibited low collection efficiencies, but with very low increases in exhaust back pressure. Preliminary results indicate a collection efficiency exceeding 80 % for the woven fiber media. Testing of both media is continuing.

Jan 1, 1995

By E. C. Ekedahl, R. J. Heath

Introduction Potassium, together with nitrogen and phosphorous, is an essential nutrient required for growth. Since all living things need potash, the major demand for potash - about 95% of the total - is as a fertilizer. Agricultural productivity has increased dramatically in recent times. This increase in crop yields requires substantial amounts of added nutrients to keep the soil fertile. It follows then that potash will always be in demand. There is no substitute. Other fertilizers that contain phosphorous (P) and nitrogen (N) are complementary and not competing products. Fireplace ashes (pot-ashes) have a relatively high potassium content. Their value as a fertilizer had been recognized for centuries. But today's potash industry did not begin until deposits of potassium-rich ore were discovered and exploited in Europe during the 19th century. Canadian potash development Potash in Saskatchewan was first recognized in 1943. It was discovered as a byproduct of an oil exploration program. But it was several years later before the existence of a major commercial deposit was acknowledged, and not until 1951 that the first attempt at development occurred. That attempt was unsuccessful. The shaft flooded and was abandoned. It did, however, demonstrate the need for new technology to penetrate the waterlogged Blairmore layer. This was eventually developed and the first mines were brought into production in the early 1960s. Once the technology was available, and the extent and quality of the potash beds became known, a number of companies proceeded to develop mines. By 1970, seven mines were in operation and three more were nearing completion. Combined, total capacity then was 7.6 Mt/a (8.4 mil¬lion stpy) K20. At that time, world potash consumption was about 15 Mt/a (16.5 million stpy). This increase in supply from Canada produced a large potential surplus that shattered the prevailing balance between supply and demand. Although world demand increased steadily throughout the 1960s and early 1970s, it was several years before world supply and demand were again in balance. Saskatchewan capacity has been expanded a number of times. It now stands at 10.7 Mt/a (11.7 million stpy) K20. Actual production has not approached this figure, however. Two new mines in New Brunswick have recently been built with a combined annual capacity of 1.2 Mt (1.3 million st) K20. Total Canadian capacity of about 12 Mt/a (13 million stpy) now amounts to 30% of world capacity. Central offshore marketing organization Canadian Potash Exports Ltd. (Canpotex) was created in 1970 as the offshore marketing organization for Canadian producers. Canpotex is owned by Saskatchewan producers and is their exclusive marketing organization for offshore business. Each company handles its own sales in Canada and the US, but all sales to other markets are handled through and by Canpotex. The Saskatchewan industry has an ore body of a size and consistency unmatched anywhere in the world. Large efficient mines have production costs that compare favorably with other producing countries. On the minus side, Saskatchewan is remote from most major markets. It therefore needs the ef¬ficiencies that stem from one organization that coordinates all offshore shipments and minimizes distribution costs. Agriculture guides potash market In the period following World War II, potash was a classic growth industry. World demand increased each year from 1945 to early 1970s. Since then, demand has been more erratic. Some years show substantial increases, but are followed by significant declines. For about the last decade, the pattern has been unclear and future demand has become correspondingly difficult to predict. North America and Europe together account for about 40% of the world potash consumption. In both areas, farming is characterized by surplus production, declining crop prices, and expensive government support programs. Under those circumstances, farmers respond by minimizing input costs. Fertilizer is one of the items they reduce. Potash is retained in the soil. It is possible to reduce potash application with no immediate deterioration in crop yield. The lower yields occur only when potash levels are depleted. So, farmers can econo-

Jan 12, 1987

By Dan Plazak

Discussion by Dan Plazak The authors are to be congratulated for presenting a simple and practical tool for quick estimates of ground water flow rates. At the risk of detracting from the simplicity of the method, I would like to suggest a slight refinement to the equation as presented. As the authors noted, the Jacob-Lohman equation (1952) assumes confined-aquifer conditions. To use confined-aquifer equations in water-table aquifers, Jacob (1963) presented a correction to convert water-table aquifer drawdowns [Ahw] to equivalent confined aquifer drawdowns [Ah,: 2] [Ah Ah = Ah - w(1) Cw 2H where: Ah, = Drawdown in confined aquifer: Ahw = Drawdown in water-table aquifer and H = Original saturated thickness of aquifer] Substituting the above in equation ( I) of Hanna. Azrag and Atkinson [4nT Ah - 2H ) Qj2.25 T t(2) 1 nr2 S W] Since the above expression predicts lower pump rates, it causes the Jacob-Lohman equation to agree more closely with appropriate analytical and numerical models. Figure 1, adapted from Fig. 5 of Hanna. Azrag and Atkinson, illustrates the closer agreement of the modified equation to their numerical model, as reflected in Qm/QJL ratios closer to unity. The agreement improves particularly as drawdown [Ah] becomes large in relation to aquifer thickness H. An additional advantage of the modified equation is that Hanna, Azrag and Atkinson's correction factor C is much more stable as pit depth increases. Assuming, as did Hanna, Azrag and Atkinson, that their numerical model is an accurate predictor, it is clear that the modification incorporated in equation (2) improves the accuracy of preliminary estimates of ground water flow to a pit.[ ] References Jacob, C.E and Lohman. S. W.. 1952, "Nonsteady flow to a well of constant drawdown in an extensive aquifer." Transactions, American Geophysical Union. Vol, 33, No. 4. pp. 559-569. Jacob. C. E.. 1963, `Determining the permeability of water-table aquifers,' USGS Water-Supply Paper 1536-1, pp. 245-271

Jan 1, 1995