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By V. McLemore, A. Fakhimi, K. Donahue, D. Sweeney, V. Viterbo

In order to evaluate the relationships between weathering and durability and strength of rock samples from the Goathill North rock pile at the Molycorp Questa mine, NM, we conducted slake durability and point load tests. Slake durability index (ID2) values ranged from 84 to 98%. Point load strength index (Is50) averaged for all rock units ranged from 1.1 to 5.7 MPa. Results show a slight positive trend between ID2 and paste pH. Two populations of data are distinguishable when ID2 is plotted versus the percentages of chlorite, illite and internal friction angle. In general, Is50 values increase toward the interior of the rock pile. Preliminary conclusions indicate that the durability and strength of the rock pile material generally increase toward the interior of the rock pile. Pre-rock pile alteration and post-rock pile weathering history have affected the durability of the GHN rock pile samples.

Jan 1, 2007

By S. E. Phillipson

The MSHA Technical Support, Roof Control Division's primary evaluation tool for coal pillar designs is the Analysis of Coal Pillar Stability (ACPS) program. However, ACPS is limited to evaluating interactions between two seams at a time, which is not ideal for complex multiple- seam scenarios. Further, it does not recognize the influence of strata properties in the interburden and cannot be used to evaluate individual pillars. We apply the Rocscience RS2 two-dimensional finite element program as a complement to ACPS. Complex multiple-seam scenarios can be characterized by a modified pillar stability factor where the ACPS single-seam development pillar stability factor is multiplied by the ratio of average single-seam development stress to the stress in the critical pillar at the multiple-seam stage, using the values of o as predicted by RS2. Several series of test examples involving two-seam analyses with isolated remnants, gob-solid boundaries, and high extraction areas of varying width were used to calibrate simulated gob properties such that the ACPS+RS2 method generated results that matched a traditional ACPS Stability Factor to within 13%. As high-extraction areas become wider and deeper, progressively stiffer gob is simulated by increasing the Young's Modulus property in RS2. After achieving calibration with the test series, three examples of complex multiple-seam scenarios were evaluated, using reasonable properties for strata types and thicknesses based on core log data. Resulting modified stability factors are reasonably close to those predicted by ACPS, although affected by units of sandstone in the interburden and gob shadows superimposed on remnant structures. This tends to show that even in complex multiple-seam conditions, applying ACPS to the worst-case interaction should usually result in an acceptable pillar design.

Jun 25, 2024

By F. Mielli

Camera systems and video surveillance are usually associated with people and asset protection. However, they can be applied in a mine environment beyond conventional surveillance: For process monitoring, collision avoidance, sizing, flotation cells, conveying systems, blasting, objects and people tracking, thermal profile, and to automatically identify equipment that is missing parts,. Image and video solutions can be driven by better integration of powerful video analytics and cameras systems in automation tools such as process controllers and supervision systems.

Feb 27, 2013

By K. J. Henderson

INTRODUCTION Shrinkage mining at Inco Ltd.'s Crean Hill mine can best be defined as a horizontal breasting method utilizing the broken ore for the mining floor and to provide wall support, with draw from a series of boxholes or draw¬points at the base of the stoping block. In choosing to shrink a given block of ore, the initial investigation centers on the ore configuration and grade, the expected ground conditions in the stoping area, the expected profit compared to alternative mining methods, the future production requirements, development lead time, the availability and type of equipment in the area, and the availability of experienced miners. These factors are weighed against other mining methods and shrinkage mining is chosen when the advantages outweigh the dis¬advantages. These will be discussed in more detail later. At Inco Ltd.'s Crean Hill mine, shrinkage mining makes up 17% of total mine production and is decreasing due to the advent of advanced blasthole techniques, notably in-the-hole drilling. Shrinkage is an adaptable mining method that is currently employed in narrow irregular ore zones, as undercuts for in-the-hole blast¬hole stopes, in ore bodies that do not extend from level to level, and in areas where quick production is required with a minimum of capital outlay or minimum develop¬ment. Two major types are currently in use which are classified on the basis of type of draw system employed. These are the utilization of load-haul-dump (LHD) equipment drawing from drawpoints, and the slusher and train method drawing from boxholes into a slusher trench and loading into a train. A third method being phased out is drawing from chutes directly into a train. In all three methods the actual stoping operation remains the same. In the initial planning of a mining block, the ore body is first located using an exploration diamond drill¬ing program. This is essentially done at a 130-m (400¬ft) spacing and it gives an indication of the amount of ore, grade of ore, the configuration of the ore body, as well as other geological features such as ground condi¬tions which will affect future mining. This drilling is done from an exploration drift 165 m (500 ft) long in the hanging wall and covers a vertical extent of 330 to 670 m (1000 to 2000 ft). However, these data are not accurate enough for detailed planning. When the de¬cision has been made to mine, a preliminary develop¬ment drill drift is driven in such a position that it can serve the dual purposes of allowing the ore body to be drilled off in detail, or of later serving as a haulage or access drift. Diamond drilling from this drift is usually on a 15-m (50-ft) grid spacing and gives adequate information for detailed planning. Utilizing the drill data, a decision is made on the mining type. For a shrinkage operation, the stoping block is ideally 49 m (150 ft) in length and a maximum of 13 m (40 ft) in width. Lengths of 65 m (200 ft) are considered a practical maximum because of the length of time the back of the stope remains open during the min¬ing of a cut. A minimum length of 13 m (40 ft) is used because the amount of time spent in opening a new cut increases in comparison with the total stoping time. The maximum width of 13 m (40 ft) is used because ex¬perience with the ground indicates that generally stope backs tend to be unstable over greater widths. However, widths of 33 m (100 ft) have been mined. A minimum width of 5 m (15 ft) is used to allow an effective draw, but in unusual cases, a width of 3 m (10 ft) has been mined successfully. The dip of the ore should not be less than 1.04 rad (60°). Angles flatter than this will not pull properly resulting in inefficient mining because of ore hang-ups on the footwall side of the stope and the need for large stagings on the hanging wall. In considering shrinkage, mining ground conditions play an important role. Strong shearing, cross faulting, or dikes are avoided. These usually cause dangerous mining conditions and an alternative safer mining method which will give adequate support to these adverse ground conditions is employed. Production requirements are taken into considera¬tion when planning a shrinkage mining program. In it¬self, shrinkage mining is capable of producing ore in a relatively short time with little capital development. If quick production is required, this method can produce ore rapidly as all that is required is that the draw system be completed and the miners with jacklegs and stopers produce a limited amount of ore. The obvious disadvan¬tage is that not all the ore broken can be pulled from the stope immediately. However, a mining horizon with sev¬eral shrinkage stopes in different stages of production can adequately maintain scheduled tonnage require¬ments, the cycle being stopes under development, stopes actively mining, and stopes completed and pulling. When the decision has been made to use shrinkage mining in a given block, the haulage and draw system is driven. The proximity of the orepass system dictates whether the system is to be a LHD operation or a slusher trench operation. If the orepass system is in close prox¬imity to the stoping block, LHD equipment is employed because of its ability to operate efficiently over short haulage distances. A long tram to the orepass usually dictates a slusher trench operation with haulage by train. Internal orepass systems are used effectively with LHD equipment with a load-out and retramming taking place on a lower horizon. In addition, stoping blocks in older areas of the mine are developed track because of the capital cost involved in converting an existing level to trackless mining. DRIFT DEVELOPMENT USING LHD EQUIPMENT The haulage drift for a draw system using LHD equipment is driven parallel to the ore body in the foot¬wall at a sufficient distance to allow an 11.5-m (35-ft) drawpoint to be driven into the ore (Fig. 1). The actual position of the drift depends entirely upon the ore con¬figuration and the drift size depends on the equipment to be used. Drift sizes of 4.6 x 4.1 m (14 x 121/2 ft) for an St-4 and 3.8 x 3.6 m (111/2 x 11 ft) for an St-2 meet company and government clearance standards and allow sufficient space to accommodate a ventilation pipe. The

Jan 1, 1982

By R. D. Miller, D. W. Steeples

Seismic reflection is a powerful geophysical exploration method that has been in widespread use in the petroleum industry for more than 60 years. This paper addresses some basic principles of the method and its application at depths shallower than 30 m (100 ft). Since 1980, the shallow reflection technique has been increasingly used for engineering and environmental problems, such as mapping bedrock beneath alluvium and delineating intra-alluvial features near hazardous waste sites, detecting voids in coal and karst, defining the top of the saturated zone and mapping shallow faults. New applications will be added with improved resolution and increased cost-effectiveness.

Jan 1, 1994

By R. Barthel, O. Nitzsche, J. Pateiro Fernández, T. Cramer

The Hong Gai coal field in northeast Vietnam has been the main coal mining area of Vietnam for more than 150 years. Anthracite coal is produced from several open pit and underground mines situated close to the UNESCO world natural heritage site Ha Long Bay. The mining-induced environmental impacts such as dust emissions, acid mine drainage, and visual impairments due to waste dumps resulted in severe conflicts of interests regarding future land use and the protection of the world natural heritage site Ha Long Bay. Within the RAME project (Research Association Mining and Environment in Vietnam), Brenk Systemplanung is contributing to an improved environmental and sustainable planning in Vietnam's mining industry and the reduction of environmental impacts on Ha Long Bay by developing suitable and sustainable technology and planning measures (e.g. for dump construction/rehabilitation, predictive modelling, and/or monitoring) for Vietnam's leading coal producer.

Jan 1, 2011

By Subhash Sethi

The WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant) Project near Carlsbad, New Mexico. is a research and development project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, designed to demonstrate the safe disposal of radioactive waste. A mine (repository) is being developed 2150 feet below the surface in a thick salt bed, which will serve as the disposal medium. The underground ventilation system for the WIPP project was originally designed based on a fixed project scope. The design criteria and ventilation requirements were developed for the performance of various activities as then envisioned towards the achievement of this goal. However, in light of new information and actual site-specific experience at WIPP leading to a clearer definition of the scope-related programs and activities, it was realized that the existing ventilation system may need to be modified. A re-assessment of the ventilation requirements--based on the current status of the facility and a clearer definition of the scope of the experimental programs, waste storage methodology, mine developmental activities. and current equipment list--indicates a two- fold increase in underground airflows from 210,000 cubic feet per minute (cfm) to 425,000 cfm. Various options to provide the increased airflow to the underground facility were considered and analyzed. Based on the techno-economic analysis, safety and environ- mental considerations, and other conditions unique to a facility like WIPP, it was decided to construct a new shaft to serve as the primary fresh air intake, along with the installation of additional fans in parallel with the existing set up. Low cost and the ease with which the new design could be implemented and integrated into the existing ventilation system with minimum impact on current activities and projected schedules were the guiding factors in designing the shaft and related ventilation modifications.

Jan 1, 1987

By D. Jepsen

Land access and tenure certainty for exploration and mine development is absolutely critical to the foundation of a healthy, sustainable and environmentally-sound mineral exploration and mining sector. Without certainty, mineral exploration will be severely eroded, resulting in reduced possibility of discovering and developing new mines. The development of positive relationships based on a shared commitment of understanding, mutual respect and trust by First Nations and the mineral sector can provide this increased business certainty and social and economic benefits for local First Nations. As a sector, we face many challenges in regard to building relationships with First Nations. The root solution to addressing these challenges lies in recognizing and understanding the unique cultural differences that exist between indigenous people and the business community. From the Canadian perspective, the First Nations culture differs vastly from non-Aboriginal culture. It is equally as imperative that cultural differences be acknowledged and respected at home as they are when seeking business opportunities in other countries. The traditional “business” approaches and relationships that one understands and incorporates with one’s contractors, legal counsel, investors and Board are generally not be the best approach for the introductory and subsequent meetings with indigenous peoples. This paper is written from the perspective of my experiences accumulated over the past ten years, first as Manager of Aboriginal Affairs for one of the largest forest companies in British Columbia and now, as President and CEO of the Association for Mineral Exploration BC (AME BC). My opinions are not necessarily endorsed by AME BC. Before the gritty issues of consultation and benefit sharing are dealt with, it is worthwhile to clear up the confusion surrounding terminology. “Indigenous Peoples” is used in a global context; “Aboriginal Peoples” is used in the Canadian context therefore includes Métis, Inuit and First Nations Peoples. The term “First Nations”, in the context of British Columbia, perhaps has its roots in the fact that treaties have largely not been settled. Therefore it is important to reaffirm that British Columbia was not discovered. First Nations have resided in British Columbia since time immemorial.

Jan 1, 2007

By Jack M. Jodrey, Neil D. O’Donnell, R. A. Metz

Bituminous sands of the Lower Cretaceous McMurray Formation in northern Alberta constitute the ore for the surface mining operation at Syncrude Canada Ltd. These sediments represent a complex succession of fluvial, estuarine and marine depositional environments. Grade prediction is realized through a combination of geological interpretation, computer modeling, and reference to past mining experience. Accurate forecasts of feed grade permit reliable predictions of volumes for removal to meet budgeted synthetic crude oil production. This planning facilitates efficient allocation of mining equipment and resources. The feed grade to the Extraction Plant is monitored at various points along the delivery system.

Jan 1, 1992

By Jozef Descour, Kazunori Nishioka, David M. Neil

Designers, engineers, and contractors are using three-dimensional seismic tomography for geotechnical site investigations and during tunnel excavation for hard rock and soft ground applications. Utilizing multiple types of seismic signals produced by a TBM, drill, or impact breaker, the reflection of different velocity features are processed into a holographic image of the actual structure to be encountered. The Mill Creek Phase 3 alignment in Cleveland, Ohio, was imaged to define existing conditions along a 1,200-ft section of a proposed 6.1-m (20-ft) diameter CSO tunnel and, specifically, a zone of expected anomalous conditions where drilling was inconclusive. In Japan, Kajima Corporation used TRT™ to image a number of tunnels including the Fujikawa and Kanaya tunnels in a combination of methods to map structural features along the alignment.

Jan 1, 2001

By A. D. Nicholson

This paper presents an approach to quantitatively calculate the neutralization of acid by silicate minerals, based on the chemical kinetics of acid reacting with silicates. This approach incorporates incongruent dissolution mechanisms and the effects of silicate iron content on net acid consumption, and offers guidelines for considering the extent to which specific silicate minerals will react. This approach differs from previous methods of estimating silicate buffering: it is based more on the fundamental chemistry of acid generation, and less on potentially misleading empirical measurements of acid neutralization.

Jan 1, 2002

By T. Gouri Charan, G. V. Rao

A spherical agglomeration process for the separation of scheelite fines of less than 30 µm in very low concentration of 0.04% WO3 in a binary mixture with quartz fines of less than 30 pm has been described. A concentrate containing 14% WO, with more than 90% recoveries could be achieved by means of anionic sodium sulfo succinate collector at pH 3.5 and also with commonly used anionic sodium oleate at pH 10.5 as per the conceptual flowsheet suggested. Such a process is envisaged as commercial potential for the recovery of fine-grained scheelite present in the tailings of gold plants as found in India.

Jan 1, 1991

The introduction of computer technology to the mining industry has produced many benefits for the mining engineer. The most significant is the dramatic increase in productivity realized by the individual user. This is important during times of competitive market conditions. Software for the minerals and energy industries has evolved substantially over the past decade. But even today it remains difficult to find a system that features the flexibility and integration capabilities to effectively (and cost-effectively) handle the needs of professionals in each phase of the mining industry - from exploration to reclamation. Several national software developers are now addressing this challenge. One Denver-based company, MINEsoft Ltd., offers a software package that is currently being used in each phase of the mining industry. The basic technology used in MINEsoft's database management system was developed in the 1960s. But during these early years of the computer industry, most of the technology was available only on mainframe computers, and then only as separate entities. MINEsoft's system unifies these various systems in one package that can be used on most computers manufactured today. Database Management System TECHBASE is a flexible, integrated database management system designed specifically for technical applications. The system features a database manager with no practical limit to the amount of data it can store, retrieve, and manipulate, according to the company. TECHBASE in¬cludes Applications Packages (TAPs) designed to meet the needs of professionals in a host of industries. Clients use the TECH BASE system to prepare many reports, including important EPA information. The package reduces data to a manageable level and enables users to increase productivity with a smaller staff. Mining engineers no longer need to do things by hand. What used to be a day's work can be accomplished in an hour or two. Exploration "Using the TECHBASE system to generate maps has probably saved us the expense of three or four draftsmen," says Ralph Fitch, regional manager and senior staff geologist with Chevron Resources in Portland, ME. "The system has great flexibility. You can treat it much like a spreadsheet. If you are halfway through with a particular project, the system allows you to add fields and calculations with ease but without starting over." Fitch uses TECHBASE for the "straightforward" plotting of results and generation of geochemical and geophysical profiles. "In exploration," he says, "these are the two key elements ... the generation of maps and data profiles. The system allows you to plot as many elements and variables in these areas that you like." Other aspects are important, too, says Fitch, including drill hole sections. "We use all the basic capabilities the system provides in the complete package," he explains. "When shopping for a system, TECHBASE was clearly dedicated to exploration in the

Jan 9, 1987

By O. M. Wicken

Magnesite has the unique combination of properties that make it useful in a wide variety of metallurgical applications. The use of refractory magnesite has been increasing throughout the world, but the source of the "ore" differs. The United States has increased production of synthetic magnesites while the rest of the world is exploiting its resources, using natural magnesites. The history and methods of manufacturing synthetic magnesite are discussed as well as the practices for beneficiating natural magnesite. The properties, costs, and uses of the two types of magnesite are discussed and compared.

Jan 1, 1964

By Walter R. Curtner

Many, if not most, of today's pollution liability claims are related to events ("occurrences") that happened in the past. This fact creates an opportunity to obtain a large amount of insurance coverage at essentially no cost. Furthermore, in many cases, this insurance coverage is readily available. Scenario #1 For some 15 years, an underground gas tank has had a slow leak. The leak has now been discovered because the gas has contaminated nearby wells. As a result, an expensive $1 million cleanup is required. In addition, a liability suit has been filed for damages due to the contamination of nearby wells. Consequently, legal expenses are being incurred. Are all of these actual and potential costs insured? Obviously, if you have a pollution liability policy in place, the above costs will probably be insured. I say probably because business liability policies are not uniform. But, what if you don't have a pollution liability policy and what if your current general liability policy excludes all pollution liability (as most of them do today)? Under these circumstances, it first appears there is no insurance for this $1 million cleanup and liability suit. But this is probably not the case. You may well have insurance coverage, and you may well have much more insurance coverage than you ever expected. And, the insurance that I'm referring to is already in place. You simply need to find it and learn how to use this insurance - I'm referring to your old policies. In many cases, old liability insurance policies provide coverage for claims made today, because these policies were written on an "occurrence" basis of coverage. In fact, most still are written this way. This means that the insurance policy covers bodily injury or property damage liabilities (as defined in the policy) arising out of' "occurrences" or accidents that happen during the policy period regardless of' when the claim for damages is made. Therefore, for insurance purposes, the key question is: when did the "occurrence" take place? If someone falls and breaks a leg, that is clearly an "occurrence." The broken leg occurrence is, therefore, insured by the liability policy that was in existence at the time of the fall - regardless of when the claim or suit is filed, if ever. However, the answer to this question is seldom an easy one when you are looking at a pollution claim. In our scenario, the tank had a slow leak over 15 years, but property damage was not discovered until now. The question of when the "occurrence" (as defined in the insurance policy) took place has been litigated and continues to be litigated in many courts across the country. But, most often the answer has been that, for insurance purposes, the "occurrence" is the entire period that the tank was leaking (15 years), even though the contamination to the water was not discovered until 1987. This means that the person or company that is insured can potentially use all of its general liability policies (if they are "occurrence" policies, and most were), which were purchased during the 15 years from 1972 until 1987. And, these policies will potentially insure all of the claims and related exposures that arise out of this leaky underground gas tank. Scenario #2 In our first scenario, the claims and expenses were insured by past general liability policies because the claims arose out of events in the past, which, in turn, caused damage. Let's look at another example. In this scenario, Company XYZ has received a request to help clean up a landfill site because 10 years ago, XYZ dumped some toxic substances at the site, which was totally legal at the time. XYZ has not dumped anything at the site since this time. Nevertheless, XYZ is now being required to contribute $2 million to the cleanup of this site. In this scenario, if you had purchased "occurrence" general liability policies 10 years ago, these 1977 policies would (potentially) apply to the current $2 million cleanup claim. And, the reason is that the "occurrence" leading to the 1987 claim took place in 1977.

Jan 10, 1987

By A. D. Davis

Naturally occurring arsenic has been detected in water from inactive mines and several wells in the Keystone area of the Black Hills. Keystone City Well #4 showed a total arsenic concentration of 69 parts per billion (ppb) during pumping in 2004. The well is not used currently except for arsenic-removal research. Water also can be pumped from a mine shaft in the abandoned Keystone ? Columbia ? Bullion gold mines, whose interconnected workings flooded after mining ceased in the 1930s. This water has been considered for local supplies, although it would require treatment or blending because of arsenic concentrations. According to historical records, the Bullion Mine produced 100,000 pounds of white arsenic. An aquifer test on the mine workings was performed at a pumping rate of about 550 gallons per minute. The arsenic concentration in pumped water was 33 ppb. In addition to wells within Keystone, samples from the water supply at nearby Mount Rushmore National Memorial have shown arsenic concentrations greater than 10 ppb, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s maximum contaminant level for arsenic in drinking water. Limestone-based technology for removal of arsenic from drinking water is an innovative and promising method that has been considered for treatment of water at Keystone. In batch testing with water from Keystone Well #4, limestone removed about 65% of arsenic from solution. A related problem of arsenic removal from drinking water involves disposal of the waste product, which is critical for commercial viability of removal technologies. Current research is investigating thermal stability of the waste in order to determine the potential for recycling of the material during manufacture of cement.

Jan 1, 2010

By W. Dresler

Since 1900, smelters have produced in Canada over 10 million tonnes of iron silicate waste slag containing significant quantities of nickel, cobalt and copper. The slag is reduced with aluminum and calcium oxide additions to produce a copper, nickel, and cobalt enriched alloy and an obsidian slag. It was found that the obsidian slag contained very low copper, nickel, and cobalt contents, indeed below 0.06% of each the base metals. These metals have been collected in a type of ferroalloy with up to 1.6% Cu, 2.1% Ni, and 0.7% Co. These alloys can be recycled according to standard procedures in base metal smelters. Surprisingly, the obsidian slag was found to display good cementitious and pozzolanic properties, which is a requirement for cement production. The strength producing properties of the obsidian slag are considered to be exceptional at the 28 day standard test age. In most cases, the obsidian concrete is characterized by significantly greater strengths than control concrete tests and concrete containing fly ash or blast furnace slag. Compressive strength data at 365 days for the obsidian concrete is impressive.

Jan 1, 2003

By M. G. Rylatt

The Ekati process plant flowsheet features the common steps in diamond recovery plant design. Primary treatment and concentration is by crushing, scrubbing, high-pressure grinding rolls and heavy medium separation (Fig. 1). Secondary concentration is by an attrition mill; wet, high-intensity magnetic separation and X-ray sorting (Fig. 2). All of these are performed on site, although final sorting of the diamonds into commercial categories will be carried out elsewhere. The initial throughput rate is 9 kt/d (9,900 stpd), increasing to 18 kt/d (20,000 stpd) during the first 10 years of operation. A range of ore characteristics will be encountered that will effect the plant operating conditions during the life of the mine. The adopted design envelope is based on these expected variations. The design is based on the use of large-scale equipment, incorporating the latest and most efficient technology available. Where proven technology exists, no attempt was made to reinvent the wheel. However, where recently developed technology offers a significant advantage, this has been incorporated into the design. The Ekati run-of-mine (ROM) and coarse ore handling facilities are unheated, to take advantage of the better handling characteristics of the frozen ore in winter. The stockpile reclaim features an MMD mineral sizer (a toothed roll crusher) to minimize the problems of handling thawed, sticky kimberlite in the summer and break frozen lumps in the winter. All processing downstream from primary crushing and the coarse ore stockpile is carried out in a temperature-controlled environment in the main process plant building. Personnel involvement in the process is mini¬mized by using a Modicon Quantum series PLC with human-machine-interfaces (HMI) running Wonder-ware software on dedicated personal computers.

Jan 1, 1999

By W. M. Lewis

Product losses to tailings ponds have long been a source of frustration for the mining and utilities industries. The utilization -of the Lewis Econosizer to recover lost products has proven to be very cost effective through reduced acreage requirements, cleaning costs and increased production. The unit is successfully operating in coal, aggregates, industrial minerals, clay, fly ash, heavy minerals and many other ores. Utilizing an upward flow of slurry in a free settling environment, particles stratify within the unit according to settling velocities and are removed as sized products. Ultra fines or clarified water is removed off the top of the unit. The Econosizer requires no power and only minimal maintenance.

Jan 1, 1998

By Paul A. Rittenhouse

First of all, I want to thank John Dunlap for asking me to this AIME meeting in Denver. I was first introduced to Denver and The Rocky Mountains more than ten years ago and immediately decided it was one of the most attractive spots in the world. I've come back many times since and still welcome any opportunity to return, even if it means I have to prepare and give a paper on potash. When John Dunlap gave me this assignment, he told me that the program would include papers on the geology of potash, papers on new discovered potash deposits and new mines and asked me to discuss potash from the commercial point of view. He also asked me to include a supply/demand outlook for potash. However, one thing he did not mention was "how far into the future he wanted me to look" and it seems to me the time element is a crucial factor to you who are both geologists and miners as well as to me. In your case, you have to look far enough into the future to give you time to explore, find, evaluate, develop, and bring into production a commercial deposit. My mining associates and friends don't agree on how long that takes but it's probably somewhere in the range of eight to fifteen years. But, they all agree on one thing and that is that the time required is continually getting longer. Now my time problem is just the opposite. It is "relatively" easy, and I stress relatively, to identify and evaluate the importance of the various factors that impact on both the supply of and demand for a commodity such as potash if the time period is today. It gets a little tough if one has to project into tomorrow or next week or next month. And when we start talking in terms of a year, five years or ten or fifteen years, things really get sticky and the old crystal ball becomes mighty cloudy. But we economists and forecasters are not known for our temerity so let me get on with the job at hand and take a look at the world potash supply/demand outlook.

Jan 1, 1978