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By Ian Hutchison, Ted Sluder, Jack Caldwell, Don Moore

Introduction The Cannon mine at Wenatchee, WA has recently been brought into operation to recover gold from the sandstones of the Swauk formation. The mine is a joint venture between Asamera Minerals (US) Inc. and Breakwater Resources. A tailings impoundment was constructed to impound 2.7 to 3.6 Mt (3 to 4 million st) of tailings at 1.8 kt/a (2000 stpd) over about five years. This paper describes the design and construction of the impoundment. In particular, it describes the 100 m (300 ft) high earthfill embankment that is the main feature of the facility. Project environment The project is located on the outskirts of Wenatchee, a town of about 40,000 people. The town is situated on the flat alluvial terraces beside the Columbia River. The Cascade Mountains rise from the terraces in a series of ridges and valleys. The mine is at the foot of the Cascades. The tailings impoundment is in one of the steep valleys. The climate is mild and dry (Table 1). Site selection Twelve alternative sites within a 16-km (10-mile) radius of the mine were examined. Decision making theory was used to select the most suitable site. Advantages of the chosen site include its proximity to the mine and its low visibility from points of common public access. Also, the area was already heavily impacted by an existing silica quarry. The major disadvantage of the site is the need to pump tailings over a distance of 1.5 km (1 mile) and against a static head of 200 m (655 ft). Also, it is located in a gulch just upstream from the town of Wenatchee. Site geology The impoundment is generally underlain by interbedded sandstones and siltstones. The siltstones are often shattered. The sandstones are often friable. Both rock types are extensively jointed. Some isolated faulting of the sediments occurred before the area was covered with basalt flows. About 10,000 years ago, at the end of the ice age, the basalts were covered by 3 to 10 m (10 to 33 ft) of wind blown loess - a fine sandy clay and silt. River deposits filled the base of the valley to depths between 5 and 25 m (16 and 82 ft). Under the main part of the embankment, these materials were removed to expose bedrock. Ground water flow is generally through the more permeable layers. The permanent water table is about 5 m (16 ft) beneath the ground surface. Project and impoundment layout Figure 1 shows the layout of the mine, the mill, and the tailings impoundment. The tailings deliv-

Jan 8, 1986

By Jorgen Elbrond

In a stream of ore in an underground mine or in a beneficiation plant bins are installed between machines or machine system. When the upstream machine is stopped the downstream machine can continue operation for a while and vice versa. The paper describes a procedure for calculating the total capacity of a system consisting of two machines with an intermediary bin as a function of the bin's live volume and of the installed machine capacities and their production variations, which are defined. Extensions to several machines in parallel and in series are shown as well as practical examples.

Jan 1, 1982

By J. Abbott

This paper gives a brief description of the Compania Ninera del Pacifico (CNP) a subsidiary of the Campania Acero del Pacifico (CAP), its participation in the Chilean Iron Ore mining and the gradual development of its activities. mainly in this paper, it is explained the CNP experience in the production of 34 million tons of self-fluxing pellets for Blast Furnace in a period of ten years in its Huasco Pellets Plant.

Jan 1, 1989

By J. A. Baicker

A 2 1/2 inch diameter probe containing a high resolution gamma ray spectrometer was developed for downhole ore grade assays to depths of 6,000 feet. Tests have been conducted on the characteristics of this tool for in-situ determinations of uranium by means of natural gamma ray counting, and of copper, silver, gold, iron and coal quality by means of neutron-induced gamma rays. Application of the technique for improved carbon-oxygen logging in oil fields is promising. The probe contains a cryogenically cooled high purity germanium detector and a 4,000 channel spectrum analyzer. Gamma ray spectra are digitally transmitted up the cable to the truck-mounted data processing system. We found that uranium can be assayed directly in different types of formations independently of the degree of geochemical disequilibrium by counting the relatively weak 1.001 MeV gamma ray of protactinium-234m. Neutron activation work shows that in-situ determinations of copper, silver, iron and coal quality are technically feasible. In carbon-oxygen oil well logging the technique allows an accurate determination of carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, chlorine, silicon, calcium and iron, and shows promise of providing an improved oil/water differentiator.

Jan 1, 1982

By E. Ben-Awuah, H. Askari-Nasab, N. Al Habib

Open pit mines are getting deeper with time and transportation expenses are increasing because of the increasing haulage distance. In-pit crushing and conveying (IPCC) is getting popular in deeper open pit mines as a suitable alternative to truck haulage because it offers a lower operating cost due to shorter haulage distance and less truck requirement. Semi-mobile in-pit crusher, currently the most popular IPCC system, is relocated every two to five years and the short-term plan needs to be updated accordingly. Short-term planning with IPCC is an area of research that has not been explored extensively yet and hardly any model can generate short-term extraction sequence considering an IPCC in place. This research work proposes a mixed integer programming model to generate short-term production plan within a time horizon of 12 months. The objective of the model is to optimally allocate shovels to minimize cost of material handling and maximize revenue subject to meeting plant requirement, maximum allowable tonnage variation and IPCC location constraints to achieve production and NPV targets set by strategic plan. The proposed model has been implemented in a hypothetical case study for verification. The comparison of results between scenarios with and without IPCC is expected to justify the use of IPCC in large open pit mines from a short to medium term perspective. A semi-mobile IPCC system with one relocation is considered in the case study.

Feb 1, 2023

By C. R. Kuhn

From 1968 to 1975, most work in surface modification of inorganic materials involved silane coupling agents. A silane coupling agent can be described simply as an oganosilicon chemical having a general formula RSi-X3 wherein the R group is attached to a silicon in a thermally and hydrolytically stable manner, and X is a hydrolyzable group usually having an alkoxy functionality. About 1975, Kenrich Petrochemicals brought into the market place titanate coupling agents. Titanate coupling agents usually consist of one alkoxy group and three functional groups attached to a central titanium atom. Zircoaluminates became available in about 1982. Zircoaluminate organometallic coupling agents, which vary principally in their respective organofunctionalities, arise from a basic technology in which two different types of organic ligands are selectively bound to a low-molecular weight zircoaluminate backbone.

Jan 1, 1995

By L. D. Patts, S. J. Janisko, E. G. Cauda, A. D. Bugarski, G. H. Schnakenberg, J. A. Hummer

Filtration systems with disposable filter elements (DFEs) are used in the underground coal mining industry to control particulate matter emissions from diesel-powered permissible and nonpermissible coal mining equipment. This study was conducted in underground mine conditions to evaluate three types of high-temperature DFEs used in those filtration systems. The DFEs were evaluated for their effects on the concentrations and size distributions of diesel aerosols and concentrations of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Those effects were compared with the effects of a standard muffler. The experimental work was conducted directly in an underground environment using a unique diesel laboratory developed in an underground experimental mine. After an initial DFE degreening period, the filtration system with all three DFEs was found to be very effective at reducing total mass concentrations of aerosols in the mine air. The effectiveness of DFEs in filtering aerosol mass was found to be a function of the engine operating conditions. The efficiency of the new DFEs significantly increased with operating time and buildup of diesel particulate matter in the porous structure of the filter elements. A single laundering process did not exhibit substantial effects on the performance of the DFE elements. The effectiveness of DFEs in removing aerosols by number was strongly influenced by engine operating mode. The concentrations of nucleation mode aerosols in the mine air were found to be substantially higher for DFEs when the engine was operated at high-load modes rather than at low-load modes. Initial heating of certain DFEs resulted in visible white smoke and substantially elevated aerosol number concentrations. The effects of the DFEs on the total concentration of nitrogen oxides (NOX) were found to be minor. The NO2 fraction was found to be generally lower for the DFEs than for the muffler. The engine-out NO2 fraction of the total NOX was found to be substantially higher for low-load modes than for high-load modes..

Jan 1, 2011

By Ahmet Unal

Use of radio frequency identification (RFID) technology to solve informational needs in isolated and restricted underground mining environments will be reviewed, giving specifications of some past and currently available systems. The advantages and disadvantages of using various frequencies, system configurations, and specific components, including their construction standards and capability, will be discussed. The remaining challenges to more widespread use of RFID systems for personnel and vehicle tracking will be identified, and recommendations concerning operating environment capabilities will be detailed. Finally, the ultimate requirements for maintaining system integrity during and following a coal mine emergency will be discussed.

Jan 1, 1997

The 21st Annual American Mining Hall of Fame Awards Banquet sponsored by the Mining Foundation of the Southwest will be held at the Sheraton Tucson Hotel in Tucson, AZ on Saturday, Dec. 6, 2003. This year’s inductee, guest of honor and featured speaker at the banquet will be Thomas J. O’Neil, recently retired president and chief operating officer of Cleveland Cliffs Mining. Prior to Cliffs, O’Neil spent 10 years with Cyprus Minerals. He was also professor and head of the Department of Mining and Geological Engineering at the University of Arizona. As representatives of mining heritage, the Hall of Fame will induct James Boyd and Thomas F. Walsh. Walsh discovered a rich gold telluride vein in Ouray, CO, which became the Camp Bird gold mine. Boyd was a former director of the U.S. Bureau of Mines, vice president of Kennecott Copper and later president of Copper Range.

Jan 1, 2003

By Kang-Hyun Lee, In-Mo Lee, Byung-Kyu Kim, Parkm Jinho, Seoung-Won Lee

"In this study, the TBM Resistivity Prediction (TRP) system is developed for predicting the location, thickness, permittivity ratio and electrical conductivity of anomalous zones ahead of tunnel face using the measured resistivity of the ground. The applicability of the developed system was verified by performing field tests at a construction site in which an EPB-shield TBM is used for tunnelling work. In the first field test, it was found that the rock around the tunnel face had the same resistivity and permittivity with the rock ahead of the tunnel face indicating no anomaly ahead of the tunnel face. In the second test, a stronger zone 5-m thick was predicted ahead of the tunnel face based on lower permittivity than that of the rock around the tunnel face. The ground condition assessed by the newly developed TRP system matched well with that either predicted from geophysical exploration or directly obtained from drilling boreholes or from daily observed muck conditions. INTRODUCTION During tunneling work, the emergence of unpredicted zones of relatively weaker or stronger ground can lead to delays in construction work or an increase of construction cost. Predicting anomalous zones ahead of tunnel face in advance can thus prevent time and economic loss. For these reasons, various methods to predict the ground condition ahead of the tunnel face have been studied and developed. Prediction methods using various kinds of equipment include tunnel seismic prediction, ground penetrating radar, electromagnetic surveys based on electronic antennas, and electrical resistivity surveys conducted by analyzing electric currents in the ground ahead of the tunnel face (Ryu et al. 2008). However, most of the prediction methods are only applicable to conventional tunneling job sites, which feature free access to the tunnel face. In mechanized tunneling projects, accessibility to the tunnel face is very limited because the tunnel face is occupied by the TBM."

Jan 1, 2016

By K. N. Han, H. C. Cho, R. Kim

"A comprehensive analysis of the effect of OH- on various cations in hydrometallurgical systems has been investigated. Cations chosen for this analysis included groups 1A and 2A, rare-earth elements and other common transition metal ions such as Cu2+, Fe2+, Fe3+, Mn2+, Ni2+, Co2+, Ag+, Cd2+, U4+, UO2 2+, Hg2+, Al3+ and Zn2+. The Newton-Raphson technique was used to calculate and plot various metal species over a wide range of pH. This study has clearly shown that by adjusting the concentration of OH-, the separation of Fe from Mn, U from V, Ce and Eu from other rare-earth elements, and In from Sn is possible. The effects of hydrated metal ions on the separation and removal of various metals from each other under various conditions is discussed.IntroductionThe primary purpose of hydrometallurgical processing is to extract, remove and purify various metals from diverse sources. Hydrometallurgists are frequently preoccupied by the extraction of cations in metallic form, but overlook the important role anions play in such processes. A proper choice of anions can determine the fate of successful extraction, removal and purification of metals (Esmaeili et al., 2005; Brbooti et al., 2011; Wei et al., 2005; Jeppesen et al., 2005; Al-Tarazi et al., 2004), and also separation (Farha et al., 2011; Sevenich and Fritz, 1983; Rashid, 1974) of cations from various solutions.In this study, the authors have examined some of the effects that anions play in various solutions. The anion considered in this study was the first hydroxide, OH-. Other anions, such as Cl-, Br-, I-, and CN-, will be dealt with in the second part of the series of two papers."

Jan 1, 2015

By W. Dziurzynski

The present article sets forward the results of field tests that made it possible to validate the mathematical model used in the VENTGRAPH ventilation engineer programmes. The case considered relates to the introduction of a new heading to the ventilation network of the mine. The utilisation of computer programmes in practice is justified by the necessity of ensuring expected performance and secure conditions in the network of mine headings, where - for example - plans are being made to utilise the transport dip-heading, taking into consideration fire and methane hazards. In the article we have presented the methodology of preparation of a database for computer programmes of the VENTGRAPH system, obtained on the basis of ventilation measurements. The next step consists in the execution of a design of the modified network and prediction, this on the basis of heading geometries, of parameters characterising the flow of air for the designed headings. Due to the fact that the heading was in the final stage of driving, following its introduction to normal operation and the stabilisation of flow values it was possible to retake ventilation measurements, which validated the results obtained through computer simulations. In order to execute measurements of the volume flow in the dip-heading, we employed a new wireless multipoint measurement system to determine the velocity field of air in the mine heading; the results are characterised by a high accuracy of measurement. As a part of fire prevention and incident management planning, a series of underground fire case studies for the a validated network flow model has been made. Results of simulations show the capabilities of the FIRE module of the mentioned software, including assessment of stability of flow directions and hints on counter and preventive measures for particular locations of fire.

Jan 1, 2009

By Jean-Michel M. Rendu

According to statistical theory, the geostatistical methods of ore reserves estimation are greatly superior to any other method. However acceptance of geostatistics by the mining industry has been slow and not as wide spread as one would expect. One of the reasons for this cautious approach is that it is often questioned whether the geo- statistical assumptions are satisfied in real world situations. When blocks of ore are estimated in a mineral deposit, geostatistical theory can be used to determine which method of estimation should give the best results. Using this theory, the relationship between estimated value and true block value can be quantified. There is a need to verify that this theoretical relationship is actually observed in practice, and that the block estimates ' obtained using the theoretical ly best method of estimation, are actually most similar to the true block values. In this paper the results expected according to the theory are compared with the results actually obtained. Sample values from a large bedded gold deposit have been used. Blocks of ore have been estimated by a number of methods, including the polygone, inverse power of the distance, kriging, logarithmic kriging and other geostatistical methods. The block estimates have been calculated from samples on a large grid, and compared with the true block values obtained from additional samples on a much smaller grid. The results of this comparison show extremely good agreement between theory and actual results.

Jan 1, 1979

By Immo H. Redeker

The Kings Mountain area of North Carolina is the lithium pegmatite center of the U.S., if not of the whole world. We have two spodumene and by-product mineral producing companies, Lithium Corp. of America, and Foote Mineral Company. We also have Kings Mountain Mica and Kings Mountain Silica Companies producing mica. feldspar, quartz and clay from weathered pegmatites in that area. Figure 1 gives the location of the spodumene pegmatite area in North Carolina. The two spodumene producers mine typical pegmatite ore in open pits after removing amphibolite or mica schist overburden which is sold to aggregate producers. The ore reserves are discussed elsewhere in this session. They are in the order of plus 50 million tons but not unlimited. 1.2 The major minerals found and concentrated from the North Carolina spodumene pegmatite ores are tabulated on Table 1.

Jan 1, 1977

By Richard R. Klimpel

INTRODUCTION Previous papers by this author have discussed some of the difficulties involved with optimizing the performance of industrial flotation circuits, e.g. Klimpel (1988, 1989). The two major problems seem to be: 1) the inherent "systems" nature of the froth flotation process which leads to a great deal of self-compensation among the various operating options available and 2) the inherent variations in mineralogy, water chemistry, etc. that always seem to be present in industrial operations. In particular, the influence of reagent dosage has been emphasized in the above referenced work including an industrial system interaction denoted as the R/K trade-off, Klimpel (1984, 1987). Using a simple two parameter model for fitting time - recovery data, Klimpel (1980): [ ] where r is cumulative recovery at time t or at the t th cell, R is the long-term equilibrium recovery and K is the first-order rate of mass removal from the cell (time ), the definition of the R/K trade-off with increasing reagent dosage can be given as follows: at low dosages both R and K increase, at intermediate dosages R continues to increase but K starts to level out, and at high dosages, R may flatten out or still continue to increase but K starts to decrease, sometimes rather quickly. An illustration of this effect in a batch laboratory flotation cell is given in Figure 1. The purpose of this paper is to give a detailed plant illustration of this R/K trade-off phenomena with changing collector dosage which shows just how highly interactive the grindinglflotation system in sulfide mineral processing really is. This is one of about 20 plant level case studies that are being presented and evaluated in an upcoming book, Klimpel (1990). The particular study given here was completed in late 1979 on a copper ore of head grade 0.93% Cu. The frother being used was Dowfroth* 250 at a constant dosage of 0.15 g for each ton of solids feed to the rougher bank and the slurry pH was 10.2. The motivation of the study was to better understand the relationship of changes in feed rate (hence in particle size and state of liberation) with variations in collector dosage (potassium amyl xanthate). The major concern was to determine how much extra economic benefit could be gained by better utilizing the existing grinding mills and rougher bank consisting of eight identical cells. The remainder of the flotation circuit was also studied, including regrinding of rougher tails, but did not prove as critical as the rougher bank operation itself. It appeared from an overall economic viewpoint, the battle was being won or lost in the manner in which the rougher bank was being operated. This was not to minimize the roles of the scavenging and cleaning circuits but those portions of this particular circuit could be rather obviously operated to achieve maximum benefit given the specific output of the rougher bank. A special attempt was made to maintain constant ore type throughout the entire test program. Eight specific test conditions were evaluated including three different feed rates (and hence three different size distributions) to flotation. Tables 1 and 2 summarize the eight test conditions and overall recovery results at the end of the rougher bank for each test. A single test consisted of at least three consecutive eight-hour shifts operating at steady-state with composite cell lip samples taken over the final eight-hour shift. "Trademark of The Dow Chemical Company

Jan 1, 1990

By D. C. Torre

Since the early 1960s, there have been efforts to develop and produce reliable continuous haulage systems capable of taking the full output of a continuous miner and transporting it, in one continuous flow, from the face to the tipple. The majority of the successful continuous haulage systems were placed in operation in the early 1970s. These were all of the bridge conveyor type. They usually consisted of bridges and mobile bridge carriers (MBC) attached at the inby end to the continuous miner and at the outby end to the panel conveyor itself. These successful bridge conveyor continuous haulage systems are either of the belted or chain type. The most successful belt type continuous haulage systems are those manufactured and marketed by the Long-Airdox Co. Until early 1977, Jeffrey Mining Machinery Division manufactured and marketed the most successful chain conveyor type haulage sys¬tems. In 1977, Long-Airdox reentered the market with a chain-type system to complement its belted system. The original bridge-type continuous haulage system was introduced to the coal mining industry in the early 1960s by the old Long Co., a predecessor to the current Long-Airdox Co. These original units were of the chain conveyor type. In the early 1970s, there were also developments in continuous haulage, employing different material handling media. These in¬cluded the Serpentix, a flexible type belt, introduced by the Joy Manufacturing Co. There was also a serious attempt to introduce hydraulic-type continuous haulage by Consolidation Coal Co. and Conoco Research. Despite some startling successes, particularly with the bridge-type haulage systems, the general and widespread application of continuous haulage has eluded the mining industry. Some of the problems are related to underground conditions; others to people, both management and labor. One of the greatest obstacles to universal success continues to be the difficulty of accepting the philosophy as well as the machinery of continuous haulage. Nevertheless, efforts continue to spread the success of commercial and viable systems in the industry. There is also effort to improve on these systems, and on methods for their successful use. In addition, efforts continue, with private and public support, to develop new types of continuous haulage equipment and systems. Bridge Type System Developments Because they have already been successful in some US and overseas mines, new developments in bridge-type systems will first be touched on. The Long-Airdox Co. has continued to improve both its belted and chain continuous haulage system. In the belted system, the company recently introduced a new design that will be mainly applicable in higher coals and in noncoal mining applications, as shown in the accompanying figure. This new system is equipped with 305-mm-diam (12-in.-diam) pulleys in the bridges and mobile bridge carriers, in place of the 150-mm-diam (6 in.-diam) pulleys in the standard system. The modification is designed primarily to improve belt life and keep belt problems to a minimum. An operator, the Clinchfield Coal Co., a Division of Pittston Coal, developed the detaching of the bridge-type continuous haulage system from the miner by placing a mobile bridge carrier at the head of the string. However, Long-Airdox and Jeffrey have now made this an option to their at¬tached-type system. In the US, there are many chain type haulage systems detached from the miner with an extra MBC at the head. There are two such belted systems

Jan 7, 1982

This paper examines the feasibility of combining network modeling and computational fluid dynamics for modeling of underground mine ventilation systems. Both simulation methods have specific advantages and disadvantages for analysis of mine systems. Network modeling is widely utilized by many operations and allows for assessment of current systems and simulation for planning purposes. Alternatively, CFD has been utilized only marginally by operations and is typically a research tool, requiring considerable computational power, complex models, and careful analysis and calibration of results. Network modeling allows for a holistic approach to the ventilation system, giving quantity, velocity and pressure in every branch, but CFD modeling can resolve the flow regime in 2-D or 3-D, which is idea when examination of an area on a more detailed basis is useful, such as dust and gas control. Integration of the two can allow for more flexible systems analysis. The feasibility of integration, along with application to limited underground mine data are examined.

Feb 23, 2014

By William H. Lehr

In recent years, we have witnessed many innovations in the equipment used in handling bulk materials. Not too long ago, any sizeable stockpile of coal or iron ore was attended by one or more material handling bridges. More recently, large stockpiles have been built with mobile equipment of' the earth moving type with bulldozers and front end Loaders being utilized in reclaiming operations. The most recent stocking and reclaiming device is the rotary bucket wheel machine. The early bucket wheel machines built in the United States were developed for the strip mining of coal. We understand that the first American machine was built in the Midwest in 1944. This type of unit was developed in an effort to reduce the cost of removing overburden and to provide satisfactory spoil disposal. As the available coal reserves under shallow cover were exhausted, the cost of removing the deeper overburden with conventional equipment became too great for these operations to continue profitably. The first machine has now been followed by six or seven additional units, the largest of which can handle material at a rate of more than 7000 cubic yards per hour.

Jan 1, 1965

By L. Adler

To mine safely and efficiently the working conditions must be systematically de¬fined. Their uniqueness distinguishes mining from other engineering professions. The worst case in underground mining is delineated and termed "encumbered space'", since it "seriously impedes motion or action." Working space is inherently hazardous, transitory, and expensive, inducing it to be of low quality, tight and congested, vulnerable and deteriorating, and isolated and inaccessible. These adverse conditions, are damaging to cumbersome, mobile equipment, and affect all activities, including surface work. The conditions are reorganized using the fundamental engineering dimensions: space, matter time, people, and money. Comprehensive tables are presented with attention paid to "disaster potentials". Examples are cited.

Jan 1, 1982

By Robin G. Adams

The market prices received by producers of internationally traded commodity metals have been, and continue to be remarkably volatile and unpredictable compared with most other traded goods and services. This volatility results in an erratic financial performance on the part of producing companies, disruptive and often inflationary cost changes for consumers, unreliable tax revenues and export earnings for host governments and severe social and economic pressures on local, sometimes remote, communities which are dependent on the activity in question. Generally speaking, price volatility appears to be associated with the inability of the metal producing side of the industry to regulate the volume of supply in a manner that is consistent with metal demand, which in turn reflects broad macroeconomic and industrial developments around the world. This statement does not purport to apply to all metals or to all instances of volatility of course. Price movements may occur as a result of pure speculation or even illegal manipulation of the commodity markets. Embargoes, boycotts and other politically induced supply changes may contribute. Threatened or actual strikes also cause artificial swings in sales volumes and prices. How- ever, most of these developments are of a short-term nature. Yet metals price cycles may last for several years, as demonstrated by the extended copper price trough from 1981 to 1986. This paper deals with price volatility which reflects long-term economic cycles and the adaptive processes that exist within the industry in response to such cycles. Special emphasis is placed on the role of forecasts and forecasters in these processes. It should be said at the outset that this reflects the personal experience of one forecaster working in private sector commercial consulting practices that are independent of producers, consumers and host governments. However, the experience does cover the entire period since 1973 and has involved working with a substantial majority of the major companies that supply high volume commodity metals. By way of background it should be stated that the post-1973 world economy has provided a challenging environment for forecasters. One cannot be precise about the forecasting record of either industry insiders or outside consultants, financial analysts and academic forecasters because comprehensive records have not been kept, or if they have the results are too embarrassing to be published. Institutions such as the World Bank have published forecasts of the prices of major commodities on a regular basis and these have, presumably, had some influence on financing decisions in the industry. This record along with our own experience and numerous discussions with metal producers, major consumers and host governments permits certain generalizations to be made. The most important of these is that during the early 1980s. from about 1980 through 1985/6, the forecasters system- atically and substantially over- estimated metal prices. While some fore- casters did correctly anticipate a recession in the early 1980s and some consequential decline in prices, the magnitude and duration of the decline was far greater than anyone foresaw. This systematic forecasting "failure" appears to have occurred independently of the forecasting methodology employed. Moreover, its extent cannot be explained by obvious factors such as incorrect macroeconomic assumptions. There appears to have been some kind of structural change in the world mining and metals industry over this period

Jan 1, 1989