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By Sigmund D. Schwarz

INTRODUCTION In late 1970, an experimental geophysical program was undertaken at the Lake Huron Tunnel for the purpose of developing a geophysical technique that could be applied to determining the thickness of rock above the crown of the tunnel and identifying anomalous geologic conditions ahead of the face as the tunnel was advanced. The Lake Huron Tunnel is an 18.5 foot diameter machine bored tunnel having a total length of approximately 6 miles. The easternmost 4.5 mile section of the tunnel extends offshore beneath Lake Huron. At the time this study was started, approximately 1.5 miles of bore remained to be completed at the east end of the project. The tunnel is part of a raw water intake for the City of Detroit water supply. The Lake Huron Tunnel is bored in Antrim shale, a dense marine shale of Mississippian or Devonian age. The west end of the project encountered banded brown shale containing numerous calcareous concretions ranging in size from a few inches to more than 16 feet in diameter. As the tunnel was advanced in an easterly direction, a transition was encountered into very uniform gray shale. One set of prominent vertical joints was encountered with a strike running approximately 15 to 20 degrees askew of the tunnel axis. Bedding is essentially flat. Variable quantities of salt water and natural gas occur in the rock. The results of exploratory drilling carried out for preliminary design studies indicated that as little as 30 to 35 feet of rock cover could be expected under the lake at the east end of the project.

Jan 1, 1997

By Harland E. Cofer

A computer-assisted resources and sedimentological study of the Andersonville, Georgia kaolin-bauxite district was begun in 1975 under a grant from the Office of Mineral Resources of the U.S. Geological Survey (Grant # 14-08-1110-G-173). A preliminary report on the kaolin and bauxite resources of the district has been placed on open file at the U.S.G.S. in Reston, Virginia; the Georgia-Geological Survey in Atlanta, Georgia; and Georgia Southwestern College in Americus, Georgia. In addition to a resources estimate, the objectives include the determination of the mineralogical variation, sedimentological parameters, and paleogeographic patterns of the deposition of the high alumina materials and their associated sediments. In the process of compiling data for the resources estimate, isopach maps were developed that provide information as to the shape, size, and distribution of the kaolin deposits and the kaolinitic sediments that contain them. These or similar maps developed for other districts can be useful exploration tools.

Jan 1, 1977

By C. D. Elifrits, N. B. Aughenbaugh

Introduction Federal and state laws enacted to regulate coal mining and the accompanying public concern about the adverse effects that mining might have on land use have focused much attention on the subsidence of the land surfaces over underground mines. Some questions asked are: • Will abandoned mines subside in the future even though they have exhibited no surface adjustment to date? • If so, when will subsidence take place? • Can a specific surface area be affected by subsidence more than once? • What surface form will the subsidence feature take? • Is there any way to predict when subsidence will occur and end? An attempt is made here to address these questions insofar as it is possible with available data and experience of evaluation of subcritical extraction conditions. Mining that results in subsidence features can be classified as supercritical, subcritical, and critical with respect to the minimum span lengths of the worked-out rooms (Fig. 1). A complete basin will not develop fully immediately over subcritical conditions because the span lengths of the entries are less than the critical dimension (Wardell, 1983). Passageways, entries, and room-and-pillar panels are all included in the subcritical category. Because of the short span lengths, subcritical mining conditions tend to be stable over the life of the mine unless adverse geologic conditions exist (Gray et al., 1974; Dunrud, 1976). Various roof control and support procedures are employed to maintain entry stability during mining. Little information exists concerning the time factor of subsidence over areas of subcritical extraction. Data that have been collected relate to longwall mines, whereby the cavity sizes are designed large enough to induce caving behind the working faces so that complete subsidence at the surface occurs within a short period of time. The UK's National Coal Board (1975) has reduced the enormous amount of data it has collected to empirical correlations and has published these correlations in its Subsidence Engineers Handbook. The handbook states that "None of the foregoing remarks applies to pillar and stall working," with respect to the section discussing the time factor of subsidence caused by longwall mining (National Coal Board, 1975, p. 40). To understand and evaluate how time relates to subsidence above room-and-pillar mines, one must first recognize how mine cavities deteriorate and fail. The propagation of failure to the surface must then be studied, and, finally, the failures that are manifest at the surface in the form of depressions accompanied by both compressional and tensional movements must be investigated. Failure of mine cavities Any cavity beneath the earth's surface represents a condition of nonequilibrium and tends to close with time. Failure of cavities in a subcritical mine can be classified as failure of the roof, failure of the floor, failure of the supports (pillars, cribs), and elastic rebound of the rock. One mode of failure may dominate, but generally combinations of the four will occur. Also, initial instability of geologic materials and structural features and in situ stress may be unknown factors that can contribute to cavity failure. Roof failure is the most obvious opening stability problem in most operating mines. The bridging capabilities of the roof rock are dependent on the rock's material strength, geologic discontinuities, and reaction to humidity changes in the air of the mine. This type of failure may vary in magnitude from gradual flaking to massive roof falls. Mine floor instability can be manifest in the form of a general heave over a broad area or of individual pillar punching. The weaker and thicker the immediate floor material, the more prone a mine is to experience floor problems. Water seeping into an area can soften the underclay, reduce its bearing capacity, and precipitate failure of support for the overburden.

Jan 8, 1986

By Dan Eyde

Low levels of thallium were detected in the mine water drainages, and process water discharges of western mining and smelting operations. This required remediation under state regulatory standards, which allow discharges of no more than .0017 ppm thallium in mine water discharges. Influent streams containing thallium can be mitigated to state discharge standards after a single pass through the series of fluidized upflow columns. Test work to determine the optimal flow rates used pilot scale systems at two separate locations treating 5 - 25 gpm of effluent. The test system at the gold mine mimics the full-scale system, which will be based on the existing upflow carbon tanks that have been converted to zeolite columns. The system installed at ASARCO's East Helena smelter has a far more complex influent stream with a high loading of competing cations. Nevertheless the columns filled with CABSORB® are successfully mitigating the thallium contamination. CABSORB® ZS500RW is a product based on the sodium analog of the zeolite mineral chabazite named herschelite.

Jan 1, 1998

By G. J. Joy, J. P. Rider

Technical advances in longwall mining over the last several years have resulted in much larger and faster shearers that have the capability of mining at speeds over 30 m/min (100 fpm). This has resulted in a substantial increase in the amount of dust that is generated at the shearer and during shield advances. Meanwhile, increased underground coal production has put a greater demand on longwall dust control systems as some operators have had difficulty maintaining consistent compliance with federal dust standards. To address this need, the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is investigating the effectiveness of a water spray manifold mounted on the tailgate end of the shearer body. The sprays are oriented parallel to the tailgate ranging arm, and these sprays create a water curtain confining the dust plume near the face, preventing the dust from drifting into the walkway. This redirection of dust provides a clean air envelope for the tailgate shearer operator and jacksetters working near the tailgate drum. Three different tailgate spray manifold designs were tested and evaluated at the Office of Mine Safety and Health Research (OMSHR) Pittsburgh Longwall Test Facility. Manifolds were equipped with hollow cone or flat fan water spray nozzles and evaluated at three face air velocities — 152, 213 and 274 m/min (500, 700 and 900 fpm)— and at water pressures of 689, 1,034 and 1,379 kPa (100, 150 and 200 psi). Reductions in dust concentrations were observed at six face sampling locations for all the tailgate manifold systems at each of the tested spray pressures and face velocities. Average reduction efficiencies of at least 90 percent were seen at the three sampling locations closest to the shearer for all three manifold systems at nozzle spray pressures greater than 689 kPa (100 psi). Based on results from the laboratory tests showing reductions in dust concentrations at sampling locations downwind of the shearer, a spray manifold was fabricated and evaluated at an underground operation.

Jan 1, 2016

By M. A. Cristovici

The possibility of using surfactants as wetting agents for the suppression of sulphide ore dust has been investigated. Numerous surfactants were examined to determine their characteristics and to investigate their ability to improve the wetting of the sulphide ore dust. However, the surfactants selected as suitable dust suppressors proved to have a negative effect on the flotation of the ore contaminated with such reagents. A method was developed to eliminate the detrimental influence of dust-suppressing surfactants. It consisted of surfactants adsorption on activated carbon and separation of loaded carbon prior to flotation. The technique is simple and requires minimal changes in the plant flowsheet.

Jan 1, 1990

By E. A. Sondreal

Requirements of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) for Eastern and Western U.S. coals will not be the same because of differences in coal sulfur content, ash analysis, and beating value. The effects of these differences and of limited availability of water in the West are the subjects of this paper. Eastern and Central bituminous coals are generally high in sulfur and require removal efficiencies in the range of 70 to 90 percent to meet the Federal emission standard of 1.2 lb SO2/MMBtu. Ash in Eastern coals is low in alkali content and is relatively insoluble in scrubber solutions. High sulfur content and market availability make salable product methods more attractive in the fast and Central United States than in the West. Western subbituminous coals and lignites are generally low in sulfur content, however, only a few deposits could reliably meet the Federal emission standard without FGD, Required removal efficiencies generally fall in the range of 0 to 60 percent to meet the 1.2 lb SO2/MMBtu limit. If the standard were raised to 2 lb S02/MMBtu, approximately two-thirds of Western coals could be burned without FGD. Some Western coals contain ash high in alkali, some of which is soluble in scrubber solutions. This complicates scrubber chemistry, but it also provides the meant for displacing some or all of the limestone requirements when only moderate S02 removal is required. Dry areas in the West would benefit from full commercial developement of dry processes of FGD.

Jan 1, 1974

By Robert Vergie

Like most of you, I would rather work on a job than talk about it. But it is fruitful to spend some time taking stock of important developments in the heavy construction field. One of the strongest recent movements affecting the industry has been the push for safety. I regret that it is a recent development. Not that builders were against safety. Too often though, it was easier to continue with dangerous old work methods than to try something new. Too often, it was easier for equipment manufacturers to build production tools with little consideration for worker safety. And too often, accidents and gruesome disasters occurred. The ultimate result of on-the-job injuries in construction and other industries was the Federal Government's Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970. Individual states were required either to accept OSHA or pass updated regulations at least as stringent as the Federal requirements. These new rules must be strictly obeyed -- not just because they carry civil and criminal sanctions -- but because they correct unsafe conditions and reduce hazardous acts. Though some OSHA measures have been criticized as superfluous, most of them do in fact save lives and limbs. Equally important, the tunneler who follows the new safety regulations can be fairly certain of an efficient, uninterrupted operation. Regulations do sometimes bring rewards.

Jan 1, 1974

By Paul D. Tomlingson

During the next several months, SME’s E-Newsletter will feature 15 articles on maintenance management. The articles may be read online or downloaded and distributed within your organization. They will address maintenance management topics, offer guidelines to mining managers and provide techniques that the maintenance manager can use. The articles will stress equipment management, a strategy that the mining industry has accepted as a modern replacement for outdated maintenance practices. Equipment management is the mutually supportive interaction of all mine departments as they establish equipment needs, procure equipment, test, commission, operate, maintain, modify and eventually replace equipment. The successful application of equipment management principles can quickly and reliably produce cost reduction and performance improvement results while providing a dependable way of sustaining them. Equipment management embraces modern management techniques. These include reliability-centered maintenance, life-cycle costing, capital performance, the effective use of information and productive organizational models.

Jan 1, 2003

By Fan Yang, Zhiping Wen, Tiancheng Nie, Jinhe Pan, Ruibo Jia, Changchun Zhou

Rare earth elements have important strategic significance and economic value, and the rare earth elements in coal resources have considerable development potential. This study took coal refuse in the Jungar area of Inner Mongolia, China, as the research object, and investigated the occurrence modes of rare earth elements. A special sequential chemical extraction experiment was designed, and the results showed that the rare earth elements in coal refuse mainly occur in silicate and aluminosilicate form, accounting for approximately 65% of the total rare earth elements. According to the results of SEM-EDS, micro morphology of the sample belonged to the lamellar structure of clay minerals, and Al, Si, Fe, S, Y, and La were all present in the sample. Through SPSS software analysis, rare earth elements have an obvious linear positive correlation with Al, Si, and Fe elements, and a negative correlation with S elements. The rare-earth element occurrence mode in coal refuse can provide a definite theoretical basis for the later extraction and enrichment work.

Feb 18, 2022

By R. S. C. Rogers

Semiautogenous milling was the subject of 18 papers presented at the SME Fall Meeting in Albuquerque, NM. The process design and scale-up of SAG mills was discussed in several papers. These included a review of testing methods for the sizing of SAG mills by Barrett and Allan. Austin et al. presented an improved simulation model for SAG mill grinding, with model validity demonstrated against pilot plant SAG mill test results. Rogovin et al. presented some pilot plant results relating to the charge motion, hold-up, and particle size segregation in SAG mills. A number of papers described improvements achieved in operating SAG mill circuits. These included presentations by Dailey concerning mills at the National Steel Pellet Co., by Brown and Pipke concerning the Island Copper grinding circuit, by Lovering of Afton Mines Ltd., and by Bartrum et al. of Kidston Gold Mines Ltd. Bush and Hegerle of Amax also discussed SAG mill operations at the company's Henderson mill. They addressed the topics of SAG mill grinding economics. Other papers addressed the topics of SAG mill control (Vanderbeek et al. and Pennington), grinding media (Meulendyke et al.), liners (Kjos), and fabrication (Carr and Utley). The 1985 AIME Annual Meeting in New York featured four technical sessions concerning size reduction technology and practice. Papers involving fundamentals included one by Hinde describing simulation model usage for quantifying the classification and concentration of heavy minerals in grinding circuits. Another, by Rogers et al., discussed simulation models that were used as a design aid in evaluating screens versus hydrocyclones for fine grinding circuits. Arbiter discussed dimensional considerations in grinding mill design, and Schwechten and Schonert proposed the use of a high pressure roll mill as a means for reducing energy requirements in fine grinding. Internal classification in tumbling mills was the subject of a paper by Hogg and Rogovin. The mechanism of internal classification were identified and their effects illustrated. Simulation for the process design of ball mills was exemplified in a paper by Rogers, Austin, and Brame concerning phosphate grinding in laboratory to large diameter mills. The incorporation of liberation into size reduction models was the subject of papers by Austin et al., Herbst et al., and Choi et al. Gupta used simulations models to further investigate zero order fines production in ball and rod mills. Of the published literature, many articles on size reduction were published in various publications in 1985. Articles concerning ball mill grinding included an analysis of interstitial gas effects in dry grinding by Cottaar et al., an analysis of mill grinding noise by Watson, studies of factors affecting breakage rates in dry milling by Gupta et al., and in wet milling by Tangsathitkuchai and Austin. Austin and Klimpel presented two papers concerning ball wear and ball size distribution effects. Koka et al., and Gotsis et al., described recent developments concerning the Szego mill. A model for hammer milling circuits was described in papers by Gotsis et al. and Gotsis and Austin. Heim et al. reported on wet grinding in Perl mills, and Kuga et al. presented findings concerning pulverizing in a screen mill. Studies of grinding effects on particle surfaces were published by Meloy and Hofmann et al., and Scieszka proposed a technique to investigate pulverizing properties of coals. Austin and Rogers discussed factors of powder technology of significance in industrial size reduction in mills and crushers. (Space limitations preclude listing of references. A complete list is available from author.)

Jan 5, 1986

By Donald E. Scheck

Blasting practices based on sound engineering principles are well established but the successful application of these practices requires accurate information about the overburden geology and close supervision of the drilling and blasting operations. Good design alone is not sufficient to insure good results, but the process may be difficult to control unless steps are taken to measure the variables and to provide management and the operators with the information they need to establish and maintain control. Satisfactory blasting can be defined as loosening and fragmenting the rock so that it can be handled by the excavating equipment, while at the same time, governmental regulations on air blast and ground vibrations are not violated. Optimum practices achieve these objectives at the lowest combined cost of the drilling and loading operations and the blasting materials. Total system optimization, that is, taking into consideration the effect of fragmentation on the cost of operating and maintaining excavating equipment as well as drilling and blasting costs, probably is not a reasonable goal at the present time.

Jan 1, 1984

By Hun-Joon Sohn

Chemical metathesis and electrochemical reductive conversion of chalcopyrite in the presence of cupric ions were studied in sulfuric acid solutions for temperatures up to 90°C. The process results in the displacement of iron in the chalcopyrite lattice by copper ions with rejection of ferrous ions to the aqueous phase. The rate of reaction was found to be very slow, requiring subsieve-sized particles for extensive reaction to occur. The reaction was insensitive to copper ion concentration. Stirred ball milling of chalcopyrite introduces lattice strain. The reaction rate with strained particles was markedly higher than with annealed chalcopyrite. The reaction rate was found to be diffusion-limited, showing two distinct reaction stages corresponding to the formation of CuS (covellite) followed by Cu1.8S (digenite). The experimental activation energy for the first stage was 102 J (24.4 kcal) and the second stage 123 3 (29.4 -kcal) per mole. The rate-controlling process is diffusion of lattice ions, probably iron. The enhanced rate after milling is attributed to a recrystallization process which provides new paths for diffusion along dislocations and grain boundaries.

Jan 1, 1984

By W. C. Goldberg

This paper presents pit slope monitoring and back-analysis case studies con-ducted to evaluate and, if possible, stabilize slopes at the Berkeley Pit in Butte, MT. Two specific slopes were studied in detail. The first slope was determined to be near limiting equilibrium, as evidenced by its response to the initiation and cessation of mining, while the second failed on three occasions. Back-analysis of the failed slope verified the laboratory-derived geomechanical properties of the earth materials. Early detection of slope movement can show a need to take action, including modifying slope geometry, dewatering if the slope were wet, and/or investigating and implementing artificial supports. Monitoring slope displacements in open-pit mines can supply data for predicting collapses and preventing serious damage, injuries, and/or loss of life.

Jan 1, 1989

By Faruk Oksuz, Dave Schiemann, Matt Trotter, Mike Padilla, Carmen Scalise, Miquel Sanchez

"The McCook Main Tunnel system consists of a 10-m (33-ft) finished diameter, 490-m (1,600-ft) long, hard rock tunnel constructed from a 27.5-m (90- ft) diameter and 92-m (300-ft) deep main gate and tunnel construction access shaft. The gate shaft houses six, high-head 4.4 m by 9 m (14.5 ft by 29.5 ft) wheel gates to be installed in the bifurcated and steellined section of the tunnel. The tunnel also includes portal and energy dissipation structures as it daylights into the reservoir.The construction of the tunnel system has been divided into two contracts. The gate and construction access shaft was completed in August 2011. The tunnel excavation and concrete and steel lining was completed in September 2014. The remaining and undergoing construction include the tunnel connections to the reservoir and the Mainstream Tunnel and installation of gates and hydraulic cylinders. This article focuses on the live connection of the McCook Main Tunnel to the Mainstream Tunnel that was initiated in November 2014 and will continue through the seasonal drier weather conditions in Chicago approximately from October through April. Chicago TARP systemThe MWRD has been addressing combined sewer overflows (CSO) and flooding in Chicagoland since the late 1960s and formally adopted the tunnel and reservoir plan in 1972 to protect the region’s most precious drinking water supply, Lake Michigan. Phase I of TARP, which included construction of 175 km (109 miles) of deep storage and conveyance tunnels with diameters up to 10 m (33 ft), was completed in 2006. In addition to protection of Lake Michigan from CSO discharges, Phase I resulted in substantial improvements in surface water quality as well as the quality of life for lake and riverfront communities in Chicago. Water quality improvements and flooding mitigation will be further enhanced as Phase II reservoirs are placed in service, including the three large reservoir systems, McCook, Thornton and Majewski (Fig. 1).The McCook Reservoir is the largest reservoir in the TARP system. Once completed, this $700-million reservoir facility will receive 38 billion L (10 billion gal) of CSO and flood water via the McCook Main Tunnel, which connects the TARP Mainstream Tunnel to the McCook Reservoir, and from distribution and Des Plaines inflow tunnels which will bring flow from the Des Plaines Tunnel of TARP."

Sep 1, 2016

By E. A. Córdova

Current methods for scratching a piece of rock to obtain or check the characteristics of its component material can sometimes be expensive and time consuming. Scratching a rock core requires an object with a point that it is capable of sliding along the surface of the rock while recording the response from the rock due to the sliding. With the idea of providing a cost efficient solution for a scratch device, a new generation turntable arm, composed of a cartridge with a diamond stylus and a USB output connection to the computer, was used to record the vibrations from the sliding of the stylus along a rock core surface. The output sound from the stylus was captured with the computer as an audio input signal. The raw sound data was recorded in a standard waveform audio format (wav) file, and post-processed using sound spectrum analyzer software (Spectra-Lab) to capture numerical data such as frequency, amplitude, and noise from the file. The results for frequency, amplitude, and noise were compared and plotted against the scanned surface of the rock core in the search for correlations that might represent specific characteristics of the surface being scratched.

Jan 1, 2010

By Pramod C. Thakur

During the past ten years, the US coal industry has experimented with various ways to extract methane from coal seams. Drilling long horizontal boreholes in solid coal from mine workings and vertical gob degas boreholes are becoming standard techniques for methane recovery from coal seams. Prime motivations for such work have always been safety and productivity in mines, but the commercial value of gas so produced is encouraging utilization. The paper reviews various ways to produce methane from coal seams and discusses some utilization projects extant in the industry.

Jan 1, 1984

By Bryson D. Trexler

Man's activity in developing, operating, and abandoning a mine often affects the quality of the ground water and surface water. Acid water drainage from mines is an example of an impact from mining that results in degradation of ground and surface water. New flow systems are created by the mining activity. The mining made possible complex chemical reactions that, with water movement, create a discharge of low pH, poor quality water. Remedies for these problems fall into two general solutions: 1) treatment of the end product and 2) reversal of some aspect of man's disturbance of the natural system. The relative reversibility of various aspects of man's impact from mining activities ranges from relatively easy to very difficult, from economically feasible to economically infeasible, and from technically possible to essentially impossible with present knowledge. The relative reversibility of a mine-related problem cannot be assessed without first understanding the detailed physical interactions that combine to form the problem. Acid water drainage is a combination of the availability of several chemical factors with the availability of water for a transport mechanism.

Jan 1, 1982

By J. D. Potts

Dust surveys were conducted at six underground coal mines to determine if deep-cutting practices expose face workers to higher levels of respirable dust. The surveyed mines were able to successfully mine deep cuts without significantly increasing the dust exposures of face workers. For exhausting face ventilation, field data indicate that scrubber airflow is the most important factor for controlling dust. Data collected for this study indicate that 20-mesh screens should be cleaned for every 40 ft of advance because 22% of the deep cuts surveyed for this study experienced a 20% to 35% decrease in scrubber airflow over the course of the cut. For blowing face ventilation, field data and past research indicate that dust control is aided by maintaining a proper curtain-to-scrubber airflow ratio of 1.0 (measured before scrubber activation) as well as a curtain setback distance that allows the miner operator to stand at the mouth of the curtain for the entire cut. Dust levels on the bolting faces did not appear to be affected by the longer cycles associated with deep-cut mining when good ventilation practices were used.

Jan 1, 2011

By Simon D. Strauss

This article is part of a presentation Strauss made Dec. 3, 1988 at the sixth annual American Mining Hall of Fame (AMHofF) banquet in Tucson, AZ. At the banquet, the Mining Club of the Southwest honored Strauss by naming him the 1988 recipient to the AMHofF. (Industry newswatch, page 6). Introduction In the last two decades, there have been two previous periods of sharply rising copper prices. One was in 1973-74; the other in 1979-80. In both cases, a short period of high copper prices was followed by steep and prolonged periods of low prices. In the language of the market analyst, the high prices were called spikes. Is it likely, then, that three or four years from now the present price of copper will show up as a spike in the charts? There are substantial differences between the current position and the markets of 1973-74 and 1979-80. In 1973-74, US copper prices were subject to government-imposed price ceilings of $0.60 per lb through early December, 1973. These were increased to $0.68 per lb through May, 1974. Meanwhile, mines outside the United States were free of restraint. Rising demand in London pushed the price above $1 per lb in the third quarter of 1973. In early April 1974, it reached a peak of $1.50 a lb. In May of that year, the US ceilings were removed and the domestic price began to rise. What were the causes of this price strength? While ceilings held the domestic price below the world market, domestic consumers acquired all the tonnage offered by US mines. Meanwhile, in the world market, buyers feared prolonged shortages. The Club of Rome had warned that world economic growth would be limited by impending depletion of mineral resources. There was al so concern about a copper cartel that might increase copper prices even more. In early 1974, at a special United Nations session, developing-country spokesmen warned the industrialized world to expect high commodity prices. Also adding to the concerns of copper buyers was the fear that when US wage contracts expired in mid-1974, protracted strikes might ensue. The combined effect of this atmosphere was that consumers accumulated large amounts of copper, far above their normal carry. By midsummer, the position changed radically. While some strikes did occur in the United States, they proved short-lived. The most significant development was a massive economic recession. The energy crisis was causing enormous dislocations in the world economy. Construction activities were sharply reduced and automobile sales plummeted. Public confidence was shaken. Copper sales fell precipitately as consumers decided to draw down their swollen inventories. The price came down too. In April 1974, the London price- as noted-was $1.50 per lb. By the end of the year, it was down to $0.57 per lb. In 1973-74, the copper price rise was fed by fears of shortages, cartels, and strikes. In 1979-80, the market rose on the strength of good demand plus political and military instability. The price rise was also fed by inflationary trends, exemplified by speculation in precious metals. Prior to this second spike in copper prices, the market had been depressed despite economic recovery. Despite reduced US output, copper production in the rest of the world was increasing. Though consumption was rising, surplus stocks reached unprecedented levels. At the end of 1977, the aggregate of stocks at the refineries and in the exchange warehouses was 1.5 Mt (1.67 million st). That was more than three months' shipments at then rates of consumption. In 1978, the statistical position improved. Shipments of refined copper that year were 8% greater than in 1977. The result was reduced visible stocks but -just as was to be the case in 1984-86 - the price remained depressed. In 1979, an even sharper drop in visible stocks occurred as shipments rose by another 4%. This time, though, the price responded. In December 1978, the price in current dollars had been less than $0.70 per lb. By the end of 1979, it was above $1 per lb. And in the first quarter of 1980, it averaged more than $1.20 per lb. Military and political developments were a factor. The hostage crisis in Iran was followed by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. To many, it appeared that war might result if the Soviets pushed on into Pakistan. At the same time, speculation drove gold and silver prices to incredible levels. As silver prices rose above $40 per oz), copper above $1 per lb did not seem unreasonable. Then, in March 1980, the precious metals price boom collapsed. Copper prices also retreated, though not as much. In February 1980, the copperprice averaged $1.32 per lb. By December, it had dropped to $0.85 per lb. In 1981 and 1982, the decline continued. The present copper situation Why is the current situation different from these two previous episodes of high prices? First of all, today's inventories are far lower than they were in either 1974 or 1980, when the price declines began. The stocks at refineries and in exchange warehouses are substantially less than they were then. More significantly, consumers today have very limited holdings compared with stocks they carried in 1974 and 1980. Even if faced with a downturn in their own business, copper consumers will not be able to stay out of the market. To the extent they have any business at all, they will have to buy copper. And on the supply side, there is also a significant difference. The year 1988 has been unusual. US production is up sharply, responding to higher prices. But production is little changed in the rest of the Free World. Indeed, several of the major producing countries have mined less copper this year than in 1987 despite the prices increases. Peru has had labor problems that have cut its output. Zambia and Zaire suffer from shortages of expatriate technicians, not to mention spare parts. They also suffer from the failure to maintain equipment or perform adequate development. In Chile, the two largest mines, Chuquicamata and El Teniente, have not met their production targets. Chuquicamata is struggling with high arsenic content in its ore. And, in late 1987, severe rockbursts hampered operations at El Teniente. In addition, depletion of some mines in Australia and South Africa has offset rising output at other properties. Indeed, when final mine output figures for 1988 become available, it may well be

Jan 1, 1989