Search Documents

By M. Gobla

"Since 1994 the Bureau of Reclamation has used risk analysis to evaluate dams. Risk considers both the likelihood of failure and the expected consequences should failure occur. Risk analysis relies on the detailed formulation and critical analysis of all possible potential failure modes. Potential failure modes are formulated by describing the sequence of events that must occur to result in failure, where failure is defined as the uncontrolled release of the impounded reservoir. Failure occurs in response to loadings such as water seepage through a dam (static forces), shaking from an earthquake (dynamic forces), sudden flood inflows (hydrologic forces), or accidental overfilling (operational errors). Reclamation has applied risk analysis methods to inactive and abandoned mines to evaluate tailings dams and flooded underground mines. Case histories of potential failure mode analysis as applied to mine impounded water illustrates what critical technical information is needed to determine if failure is likely, what the consequences of failure are likely to be, and what are the highest risks that should be addressed first. INTRODUCTION Impounded water, and high water content wastes, at mining and industrial processing sites are potential threats to public safety and the environment. Recent failures such as the TVA Kingston flyash impoundment failure in Tennessee in 2008 (5.4 million yd3 released), the Mt Poly Tailings Dam failure in British Columbia in 2014 (5.8 million yd3 released), and the Smarco Fundao Tailings Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 (78 million yd3 released) has renewed attention to this issue. Potential risks from impounded water at mining and industrial sites originates not only from tailing dams, but also from water in process ponds and conveyance pipelines, sediment retention dams, water retention dams, mine pit lakes, and flooded underground mine workings. Conventional water retaining dams also have a record of failure. Notable examples of failure include Vajont Dam in Italy in 1963 (2,600 lives lost), Banqiao and Shimantan Dams in China in 1975 (171,000 lives lost), and Machhu-II Dam in India (10,000 lives lost). After the 1976 Teton Dam failure in Idaho, the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) established a Dam Safety Program. By 1984 the agency developed and began using risk analysis methods. Reclamation operates and maintains an inventory of hundreds of aging dams which were designed and constructed over a period of one hundred years. Many of these facilities were constructed using engineering design and construction methods which would not be considered good practice according to present day standards. Diligent observational monitoring, detailed site investigations, and the application of risk evaluation to the BOR dam inventory has identified many deficiencies resulting in significant demands on available funding for remediation efforts. The application of risk analysis has allowed the agency to rank sites by risk. By giving priority of remedial efforts to high risk sites, significant improvements to dam safety have been achieved. BOR has also applied risk analysis to evaluate and reclaim inactive and abandoned mining and industrial sites. The application of risk analysis methods in the mining industry is not new, the methodology was transferred to the mining industry more than 15 years ago as discussed in ICOLD Bulleting 121 (ICOLD, 2001), yet failures persist. This paper is meant to convey the lessons learned from BOR’s use of risk analyses in its work on mine sites."

Jan 1, 2017

By Luis Alberto Martinez Tipe

The paper show how the inclusion of the uncertainty of the geology of the orebody into the mine planning and design process can be of great help, for the mine planner, in both assessing and quantifying the existing risk in the key project indicators such as DCF, and ore tonnage. This is achieved by using conditional simulation and Monte Carlo techniques which provide equally probable models of the original orebody model of the deposit. In this fashion, it is possible to assess the sensitivity of the pit design and related long-term production scheduling (cutbacks) to grade uncertainty.

Sep 12, 2005

Sophisticated pit optimisation software has allowed mine planning engineers to generate mining outlines that consider the numerous factors that have a major effect on the success or otherwise of a mine plan. The outlines are generally generated using a range of values for which one can assume a fixed mining cost and a variable revenue. During analysis, the expected costs and revenues are used to investigate the cashflow and sensitivities. Ultimately, the final pit and incremental outlines, or shells, are selected for a given expected price. This paper proposes an alternative method for incremental pit shell selection that considers the risk the mine be prepared to accept. The life of mine is divided into a number of Business Risk Periods (BRPs). The BRP represents the period of time over which the owner is prepared to invest capital. During each BRP, the mine will then operate at a selected investment cost which is generally equal to or greater than the minimum required to meet production targets. In this way, a robust mine plan can be produced which allows the mine to react to change without having to alter the incremental shell limits while maintaining a strategic risk profile. This paper will summarise factors to be considered in selection of the BRP and the incremental pit shells within the BRP.

Jan 1, 1998

By R. Heuberger

South Africa?s Mining Industry operates in an uncertain world. The industry is buffeted by problems regarding retrenchments, unemployment, low productivity, rising costs, volatile exchange rates, commodity prices and government regulations. With these uncertainties facing the decision makers, what does applied technology offer the industry?s management? Modelling languages with risk analysis have been available for decades, but in the past their use has been very expensive, requiring large mainframe computers and lots of computer time. Today, PCs and laptops have incredible power, which makes interactive risk analysis affordable and viable for all enterprises, whether small or large. ?What is risk analysis? ?What is Monte Carlo simulation? ?What kinds of computer models need to be created to use risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation effectively? This paper addresses these questions and illustrates, with a practical example in the mining industry, how risk analysis techniques can be used to support decisions in the climate of uncertainty.

Jan 1, 2005

By Denis Yaychuk, Gary Billingsley

The economic eva luation of a mineral property or mining venture should include the quantification of ri k as part of the analy is. The re ults of such an analysis provide the decision-makers not only with the most likely financial outcome and the probability of achieving that or any other outcome. but al o with a ranki ng of the relative impact of all the ri sk factors. These type of resu lts offer more complete information for investment and technical deci ions than the traditional cash flow/ ensitivity analysis. In addi tion. by attempting to quantify ri sk. the personnel providing the va ri able input are forced to take a much clo e r look at the data involved, and are fo rced to work together. the reby increa ing substantially the awa reness of the impact their work and others· work has on th e outcome of the analysis.

Jan 1, 1986

The paper examines the current status of risk and accepted practice in mining geomechanics. It explores some deficiencies in human capital, risk analysis and our future technical needs, and suggests ways of improving our estimates of slope reliability through knowledge sharing and research.

Jan 1, 2003

By K Broadley

Risk and dispute resolution are linked. Dispute resolution techniques are brought to bear on a dispute - which is an outcome of a risk being wholly or partially realised. There has been an increasing awareness by business of risk as a component of doing business. There is an accompanying awareness of the need to manage risk - including legal risk. Many companies have undertaken a systematic review of their potential risks and endeavoured to put in place systems to help to avoid or manage risks. A legal risk management program will not prevent disputes arising. However, such a program should prescribe how that dispute will be managed. The management of the dispute will involve consideration of the dispute resolution procedure to be adopted. The most appropriate processes will take into account the practical, personal and commercial considerations surrounding the dispute and be as efficient, cost-effective and user friendly as achievable in the circumstances for the benefit of all the parties. Carrying on business in South East Asia, whether as an explorer or a mining operator, brings additional considerations to bear in legal risk management and the dispute resolution process. A significantly different perspective is required due to the varying nature of the legal systems in many South East Asian jurisdictions. These jurisdictions often have relative uncertainty as to the law. This impacts on the dispute resolution processes and also raises further timing and cost issues. The authors contend that this is all the more reason to endeavour, as practically as possible, to adopt a legal risk management and dispute resolution profile which will provide business with the greatest prospects of maintaining control of the dispute resolution process. This presents a greater chance of a successful outcome to the dispute. In these times of increasing pressures on profitability because of low mineral prices, all costs of a minerals business are being reviewed. In such times, a significant legal dispute may have even greater potential to adversely impact on the companies concerned, together with the careers of the people involved. In this paper possible approaches to managing disputes and a case study a legal dispute in which Freehill Hollingdale and Page were involved are discussed. The dispute concerned an international mining company developing a gold mine in Indonesia and one of its contractors in Indonesia. Described is how that dispute was resolved. This achieved a very satisfactory result for the client - all things considered. Given the æadditionalÆ problems associated with ascertainment and enforcement of ærightsÆ in South East Asia, the longer the parties can retain control over their dispute the better off they will be. For this reason, the authors set out in this paper the main additional dispute resolution tools available - that are appropriate for use throughout South East Asia.

Jan 1, 1999

By Harvey W. Parker

The underground industry is challenged by many complex technical and non-technical issues and risks. The most obvious of these are the traditional technical issues that we usually try to address with risk management techniques. However, there are many other non-technical risks that our projects face on a daily basis which we often fail to fully recognize or appreciate. This paper addresses some of the less-technical broad-based risks in order to put them into perspective with the technical risks we face day to day in underground planning, design and construction. The good news is that Risk Management techniques are not always about bad things. For obvious reasons Risk Management is always thought of in terms of the ?downside? of risk (i.e., the identification and mitigation of things that can go wrong). On the contrary, there is an ?upside? of things that might go better than expected. Fortunately, if a deliberate effort is made, the same principles and techniques that our industry uses in Risk Management can be applied toward identifying and quantifying the Opportunities and Benefits that might occur. In this way, the process of conducting risk management programs can not only identify the downside risk but can be used to identify and direct projects to take advantage of the upside of uncertainty (i.e., Opportunities as they arise). This beneficial aspect of risk management programs will be highlighted in this paper together with the importance of the non-technical issues.

Jan 1, 2008

By L. H. Pye

For large mining sites in the west, the traditional method for performing an ecological risk assessment (ERA) provides little useful information for risk managers faced with selecting and designing sound remedial options. Current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk assessment guidance largely supports quantitative risk characterization of individual species as surrogates for population and ecosystem-level effects. Developing a work plan for investigating and remediating ecosystem-level changes potentially caused by large-scale historic mining/smelting contaminant release requires a decision process that incorporates a more holistic ecosystem management approach. Some of the most wasteful efforts associated with mine site ecological risk assessments arise when the risk analysis and data collection programs are not specifically linked up-front to the risk manager's decision needs. The following paper discusses the importance of employing a decision-based, ecosystem management framework when conducting ecological risk assessments at large mining sites. A case study of an ecological risk assessment currently being performed at a large New Mexico copper mine site is presented.

Jan 1, 1999

By W. P. Blacutt

A financial-economic model incorporating physical, market and policy variables has been developed for mining investment in Bolivia. Additional risk criteria emanating from political instability, new mining legislation, recent environmental regulations and a new minerals taxation system are accounted for and are integrated into the investment decision model. Results of the model indicate that geologic and market variables have the dominant effect on the investment-worth function. Among policy variables, exchange rate and taxation policies have the most significant influence. Depreciation allowance for infrastructure development has negligible weight in the investment-worth function. The business structure of the firm considering investing in the Bolivian Polymetallic Project, is found to be an instrumental factor in the investment-worth outcome.

Jan 1, 1995

By W. P. Blacutt

A financial-economic model incorporating physical, market, and policy variables is developed for mining investment in Bolivia. Additional risk criteria emanating from political instability. new mining legislation, recent environmental regulations, and a new minerals taxation system are accounted for and are integrated into the investment decision model. Results of the model indicate that geologic and market variables have the dominant effect on the investment-worth function. Among policy variables, exchange rate and taxation policies have the most significant influence. Depreciation allowance for infrastructure development has negligible weight in the investment-worth function. The business structure of the firm considering investing in the Bolivian Polymetallic Project is found to be an instrumental factor in the investment-worth outcome. Specifically, undiversified mining companies whose operations exclude zinc production as the primary source of revenue would benefit most from adoption of this project.

Jan 1, 1993

By Robin G. Burn

An orebody is a mining company's greatest asset; without it there can be no mine. Yet, by the very nature of the industry, orebodies are wasting assets whose progressive depletion must be balanced by continued discovery of new ore to enable both the industry to survive and the raw material demands of society to be satisfied. Although mineral exploration may be viewed as any activity which leads to the creation of investment opportunities in the mineral industry, ultimately new ore can only be generated through discovery. The process leading to discovery may involve a long chain of independent and interdependent events. It will almost always be repetitious and require the examination of many prospects or trials before the goal, a commercially successful discovery, is satisfied. Long term survival of a mining company through regular discovery of new ore, requires a continued commitment of funds and effort to mineral exploration.

Jan 1, 1984

By Carlos Álvarez, Sergio Sánchez, Michael Mains, Giuseppe Gaspari

Extensive record of tunnels excavated with SEM (sequential excavation method) in swelling grounds exists in literature: global experiences include successful tunnelling both through clayey and rock masses with time dependant deformation. However, TBM (tunnel boring machine) use in swelling conditions with high water pressures (EPB, earth pressure balance, machines or slurry shields) is much less documented, considering the lower expected impact due to the limited stress relief and operations under saturated conditions. This paper summarizes a number of studies conducted as part of the risk assessment and detailed design of a large diameter TBM tunnel in variable and challenging geological conditions. The tunnel alignment is driven through mixed face conditions including swelling soils and clayey soft rocks, prone to intense time-dependent deformations. The paper also describes the approach adopted for the design of pre-cast segmental lining subject to both swelling actions and high seismic loads, due to the regional active tectonic faults. The design of this lining included a detailed parametric study performed to handle the existing uncertainties related with ground characterization, potential deconnement and complex geological congurations.

Jun 23, 2024

By Bartho J. Admiraal

"As part of the Schiphol-Amsterdam-Almere project, the largest aqueduct in Europe is being built in order for the A1 motorway to cross the Vecht River. The A1 consists of 12 lanes and the total width of the aqueduct will be 65 m (213 ft). The total length of the structure will be 620 m (2035 ft). Speed of construction is essential for the DBFM-contract, which forms the primary reason for choosing a building method with a horizontal water retaining barrier created by low pressure grouting. After final checks on the water tightness of the silica based layer (softgel), excavation to a depth of approximately 12 m (40 ft) below the water table could be started in order to build the aqueduct.This paper presents a new approach for the calculation of the required grout volumes needed to ensure a “softgel” layer without gaps or holes. The approach applies measurement of deviations due to execution aspects in a probabilistic model. With this model, one is able to study the effects in a field application, i.e. multiple rows of grouted spheres. The results are visualized in order to analyze the risk of holes more easily. It is evident that the existence of a hole means a major leakage. By completing multiple runs, the strategy for grout volumes can be adjusted to minimize this risk.INTRODUCTIONThe Dutch Department of Waterways and Public Works invests over € 4 billion between 2012-2020 to increase the capacity of 63 km (41 mi) motorways of one of Holland’s major corridors. The A1/A6 will be transformed over a distance of 20 kilometers (13 mi). Near Muiden, the current drawbridge on the A1 for crossing the Vecht river will be replaced by a new aqueduct to be located slightly south of the existing bridge."

Jan 1, 2016

By M. K. G. Whateley, W. Hatton

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 20pp., 31 refs. Estimates of coal tonnage on UK open cast mining sites often vary from the recoverable tonnage. This is because the estimates depend on the geological variability of the coal measures. Geological parameters, such as thickness, quality and disturbance of the seam, have a direct control upon this variance. Risk analysis techniques have been applied using commercially available software to combine each parameter's variability into a cumulative variance, resulting in a tonnage distribution. Sensitivity modelling has also been used to identify the geological parameters which have the largest influence on the variance of the simulated tonnage distribution. An understanding of the relationship between the tonnage and geological variability has helped to focus exploration more efficiently. A cost to risk relationship can now be monitored, helping management to avoid negative consequences on site

Aug 1, 1995

By William Pitman

Ground instability and subsequent rock falls are a major concern in underground mines. As a result, several mining companies are conducting risk assessments of the ground support installed in their mines. Risk assessment is now commonly used to provide mine operators with a systematic process to assess the strategic risks that could lead to injury to personnel or loss of production, and evaluate possible risk control measures. Risk assessments can be carried out to identify major hazards, assess the likelihood of occurrence and consequences of each hazard and estimate the level of risk. This process allows assessment of possible remediation actions to minimize the risk and likelihood of occurrence or mitigation of the consequences to a level that is reasonable and practical. This paper presents two practical mine applications of qualitative risk assessment of ground support to highlight the benefits of this process. Yearly or bi-yearly risk assessment of mine excavations can assist mine operators in prioritizing resources and areas that require support remediation. In addition, it provides a mechanism for proactive response to reduce potential risks associated with personnel safety, equipment safety and environmental impact. It also provides a baseline against which changes in ground condition can be compared and quantified.

May 1, 2004

By I. Cameron-Clarke

This paper describes the design of a wellfield to provide a water supply for a new mine in southern Africa. A hydrogeological investigation was conducted that included the drilling and test pumping of eight wells located within a highly jointed pyroxenite aquifer. The wellfield was designed using a simple probabilistic analysis. This approach allowed the variability of the aquifer parameters to be taken into account. A risk assessment analysis was then carried out to evaluate the level of assurance that a reliable water supply could be provided by the wellfield. The analysis was also used to assess the effects of supplementing the water supply by pumping from nearby flooded workings.

Jan 1, 1992

By Richard Wilson

In the early 1970s, it became a concern that exposure to the mineral fibers associated taconite ore processed in Silver Bay, Minnesota would cause asbestos-related disease including gastrointestinal cancer. At that time data gaps existed which have now been significantly reduced by further research. To further our understanding of the types of airborne fibers in Silver Bay we undertook a geological survey of their source the Peter Mitchell Pit, and found that there are no primary asbestos minerals at a detectable level. However we identified two non-asbestos types of fibrous minerals in very limited geological locales. Air sampling useful for risk assessment was done to determine the type, concentrations and size distribution of the population of airborne fibers around Silver Bay. Approximately 80% of the airborne fibers have elemental compositions consistent with cummingtonite-grunerite and the remaining 20% have elemental compositions in the tremolite-actinolite series. The mean airborne concentration of both fiber types is less than 0.00014 fibers per milliliter that is within the background level reported by the World Health Organization. We calculate the risk of asbestos-related mesothelioma and lung cancer using a variety of different pessimistic assumptions. (i) that all the non-asbestos fibers are as potent as asbestos fibers used in the EPA-IRIS listing for asbestos; with a calculated risk of asbestos-related cancer for environmental exposure at Silver Bay of 1 excess cancer in 28,500 lifetimes (or 35 excess cancers per 1,000,000 lifetimes) and secondly that taconite associated fibers are as potent as chrysotile the least potent form of asbestos. The calculated risk is less than 0.77 excess cancer case in 1,000,000 lifetimes. Finally, we briefly review the epidemiology studies of grunerite asbestos (amosite) focusing on the exposure conditions associated with increased risk of human mesothelioma. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Risk; Fibers; Particles; Taconite; Asbestos; Exposures

Jan 1, 2007

By N. Demirel

Estimating productivity of a walking dragline is of paramount concern to mining engineers and mine planners. Risk based evaluation of the dragline productivity is a valuable tool to estimate the dragline?s long-term performances and availabilities, to develop preventive maintenance plans, and to make future projections about the machine?s performance. This paper aims to provide mining professionals with an overview of risk assessment methodology for productivity of two walking draglines, PAGE 736 and MARION 7820, which have been operating in Tunçbilek open cast coal mine of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Turkey. The study encompasses three main stages as: (i) acquiring of monthly maintenance records, operating hours, mechanical and electrical failure hours between 1998 and 2009; (ii) reliability modeling using mean time between failure data; (iii) determining hazard rate and consequences to compute risk associated with dragline productivity. The results showed that that Page 736 (20 yd3) is seemed to be more reliable and less likely to fail when compared with Marion 7820 (40 yd3). The operating hours without failure range from 41 to 51 hours with 50 percent reliability.

Jan 1, 2011

By H. S. Duzgun, N. Demirel

Estimating productivity of a walking dragline is of paramount concern to mining engineers and mine planners. Risk based evaluation of the dragline productivity is a valuable tool to estimate the dragline’s long-term availability, to develop preventive maintenance plans and to make future projections about the dragline’s performance. This paper aims to provide mining professionals with an overview of risk assessment methodology for productivity of two walking draglines, Page 736 and Marion 7820, which have been operating in the Tunçbilek openpit coal mine of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Turkey. The study encompasses three main stages: (i) acquiring of monthly maintenance records, operating hours, mechanical and electrical failure hours between 1998 and 2009; (ii) reliability modeling using mean time between failure data and (iii) determining hazard rate and consequences to compute risk associated with dragline productivity. The results showed that that Page 736 (15.29 m3) seemed to be more reliable and less likely to fail when compared with Marion 7820 (30.58 m3). The operating hours without failure range from 41 to 51 hours with 50% reliability.

Jan 1, 2011