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By J E. Everett, D Linden, P Maney

In response to the implementation of a new schedule for iron ore fines in the International Maritime OrganizationÆs (IMO) International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code, improved measures for the management of moisture have been developed. In particular, prediction of cargo moisture allows management of iron ore fines within the supply?chain to facilitate the safe?shipping of iron ore fines.An ARIMA model, augmented to allow for shipment tonnage, has been developed to predict the moisture level from previous shipments of the same product. The model explains about 60 per cent of the moisture variance. It was found that inclusion of other available information, such as ore composition, train/rake assays and recent rainfall at port and mine, did not add to the predictive power of the model.CITATION:Everett, J E, Linden, D and Maney, P, 2013. Predicting iron ore fines shipment moisture, in Proceedings Iron Ore 2013 , pp 17-26 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 12, 2013

By D Roldpo, M Vidigal, J F. C L Costa

The local cumulative distribution function (lcdf) of a selective mine unit (SMU) can be estimated by conditional simulations using the statistics derived from the sample points, generating multiple equally probable scenarios. Conditional simulations permit the evaluation of the lcdf at any support, taking into account the spatial variability, ie the variogram, and the two statistical moments, mean and variance, of the conditioning samples. The SMU ore losses and dilution depend on the mining method and mining equipment selectiveness that, in its turn, depends on the predicted block size. A new approach to predict ore loss and dilution was developed in this study. Monte Carlo simulation is used to randomly generate a grade value derived from the lcdf at the mining stage (Zs_mc(t)) in order to make a decision about the SMU destination, ie processing plant (ORE) or waste dump (WASTE). If Zs_mc(t) is lower or equal to the cut-off (Z_cut-off) the block is ORE and, conversely, if Zs_mc(t) is higher than the cut-off (Z_cut-off) the block is WASTE. Considering these binary destinations ORE/WASTE, at the mining time t, and combining each realisation of the simulated random function Zcs_i (X), there are four possibilities for each SMU simulated value: 1. the block was simulated as ore and is actually ore (OO), 2. the block was simulated as ore and is actually waste (OW),3. the block was simulated as waste and is actually ore (WO), and 4. the block was simulated as waste and is actually waste (WW).The dilution factor is given by possibility 3 (WO), while the ore loss factor is represented by possibility 2 (OW). These results comprise the classical classification and reconciliation plots used in the mining industry. The new procedure proposed in this paper is based on the use of all the equally probable simulations to define the ore loss and dilution factors. An application of this methodology was carried out at Vale's iron mine in Brazil. The grade of silica was simulated and 50 multiple equally probable 3D models were generated. The mean and the standard deviation of the ore tonnage (OO + WO) for the 50 realisations, was 233 Mt and 0.5 Mt, respectively. The mean grade increased for the diluted ore (OO + WO) as well as their respective coefficient of variation (CV). The CV increases from 62 per cent in the undiluted ore (OO), to 101 per cent in the ore, considering the dilution factor (OO + WO). The mean ore loss (OW) was 10 Mt and the waste tonnage dilution (WO) was 9 Mt.

Jan 1, 2009

By D. A. Swanson

Predicting when and at what rate seepage will occur from waste-rock facilities is becoming an integral part of permitting and closure at mines situated in dry climates. Such predictions require development of a conceptual framework that accurately describes how water will percolate through a waste-rock facility. Also needed is a detailed hydrological characterization of the waste-rock facility, including measurement of the hydraulic properties of the waste rock and any potential cover materials. This paper presents a conceptual framework describing unsaturated water flow in a waste-rock facility and describes methods for characterizing the hydrology of a waste-rock facility in a dry climate. The methods are designed to collect site-specific data to support accurate and defensible predictions of long-term seepage rates.

Jan 1, 1998

By K Jupp, T J. Howard

Cliffs Natural Resources Pty Ltd (CNR) operates iron ore mines in the Koolyanobbing region of Western Australia. Ore is mined from three locations, separated by many kilometres. The ore is stockpiled at these locations, according to an in-house ore classification system (based on grade and source) and then trucked to the crushing and screening plant at Koolyanobbing. Lump and fines products are railed to Esperance for ship loading and export to Asian customers. CNR prides itself on the relatively low inter-shipment grade variability of the products. The Koolyanobbing crusher is fed using a daily blend plan, generated to maintain lump and fines product grades within acceptable tolerance ranges around targets. Achieving low variability requires predicting lump and fines grades as accurately as practical from the estimated head grades of the ROM ores potentially going into the blend. The grade prediction model may be either a direct prediction of crushed lump and fines grades and lump percentage, or be split into two stages: the bias between blasthole estimated head grade and crusher head grade and then the lump-fines algorithm for splitting the head grade between lump and fines products. The lump-fines algorithm comprises the percentage of lump and the difference between the lump and fines grades. We describe a weighted least squares (WLS) regression model for predicting crusher grades and lump proportion from the estimated head grade for Fe, P, SiO2, Al2O3, Mn and S. The method is applied to CNR production data, where the regression model explains approximately 60 per cent of the variance in the crushed ore grade, for both lump and fines. A further small but significant improvement in prediction can be achieved by including the ore classification data in the model. The regression errors exhibit strong positive serial correlation, indicating trends in grade error across multiple blend records. To compensate for the longer-term error, an exponentially smoothed model was developed and applied to the daily grade blend errors. This gave an increase in the longer-term variance explained and therefore an improvement in grade prediction.

Jan 1, 2009

By Trueman R

If continuous mining systems are to be successfully applied in metalliferous mines then reliable models will be needed to predict rock cutting machine advance and tool wear rates for effective machine selection before mining commences. Many of the predictive models developed to assess cuttability in situ are over-simplistic. As a result they tend to be both site and/or machine specific. Nevertheless very detailed models have been developed for full face machines which are capable of accurate cuttability predictions in a variety of rock mass conditions and for a variety of machine and tool configurations. However, models to predict productivity and tool consumption for partial face machines are not as well advanced. There is a need to develop reliable models for partial face machines such as Roadheaders, the Robbins Mobile Miner and the HDRK-Wirth CMM, as these types of machine are likely to predominate in a mining environment. The paper outlines the current state-of-the-art for predicting cutting machine performance and the work being carried out within the Centre for Mining Technology and Equipment (CMTE), in collaboration with the Australian mining industry, to advance our capability in this area.

Jan 1, 1995

By J. Hilgers

Metal prices are often predicted by relying on time trend projections of various economic indicators or even the trend in price itself Thus, time is the underlying explanatory variable acting through at best, a limited selection of economic variables. The price prediction method described in this paper differs from this by analyzing hundreds of economic variables to develop a few principle components that automatically capture the fundamental changes in the economy and delete duplicate or irrelevant information. This leaves a few principle variables to describe a state-space representation of the economy which can then be used for prediction. Forecasts of the price of a metal are then made based on these principle variables.

Jan 1, 1995

By M Astorga, J Jackson, J Gaunt

The Ban Houayxai mine (BHX) is a relatively low-grade, low-cost, open pit gold-silver deposit in Laos operated by Phu Bia Mining, a subsidiary of PanAust. The ore production rate at BHX is 4.5 Mt/a, with direct tipping to a semi-autogenous grinding/ball mill circuit with a carbon-in-leach process plant. Approximately 100 000 oz of gold is produced per annum.The operation is located in mountainous terrain with minimal run-of-mine stockpiling. This results in limited capacity for blending from stockpile, with the mill instead reliant upon direct feed ex-pit. Since commissioning in 2012, the plant has seen significant variation in milling rates due to variability in the feed properties of the oxide, transition and primary ores. As part of an ongoing continuous improvement program, an integrated approach was initiated, focusing on maintaining and enhancing production in the future as the proportion of harder primary ore increases. This will specifically focus on direct blending from the loading face using the ore properties and blast fragmentation to maintain mill throughput.This approach was based on the concept of physical assets management, commencing with improving information and knowledge of the condition of the orebody through modelling the characteristics, variability and performance of the feed for processes relevant to throughput. These models are used to support both mine and process plant production planning.The key ore feed characteristics and parameters modelled for the life-of-mine are blastability index, powder factor, crushability or impact resistance and grindability. These predictive spatial models were based on the data from diamond drill holes used in resource definition and geotechnical drilling programs by integrating geotechnical, geological, geochemical and metallurgical data.At the early stages of implementation, the models are being utilised for ore blending decisions to provide guidance and support for budgeting, long-term mine planning, blast design for mill feed and providing the mill with an expectation of performance.CITATION:Jackson, J, Gaunt, J and Astorga, M, 2014. Predicting mill ore feed variability using integrated geotechnical/geometallurgical models, in Proceedings Orebody Modelling and Strategic Mine Planning Symposium 2014, pp 165–176 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 24, 2014

By Kathy Kalenchuk

To develop strategic and tactical strategies to manage seismic hazard in a safe and economic manner, it is necessary to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of mine wide seismogenic behavior. Global mine-scale numerical stress modelling provides a means to forward predict seismic susceptibility thereby facilitating informed decision making for the development and implementation of strategic and tactical risk mitigation measures. To make forward predictions of hazard susceptibility using global stress models with reasonable confidence, it is necessary to rigorously calibrate numerical stress models to the observed history of ground reaction. This paper demonstrates quantifiable methods for calibrating numerical models and developing probabilistic prediction criterion using seismic data. The appropriate applications of model inputs (including boundary conditions, constitutive models and material parameterization) specific to global mine-scale modelling are also discussed. Lastly, this paper demonstrates how the calibration process adds value not only to informed decision making, but also to the improved understanding of site geomechanical conditions; including enhanced identification of geotechnical domains and mechanical indicators required for seismic mechanism domaining.

Apr 26, 2022

By F. Chiesa

Experimental results on thin and thick castings poured in aluminum A356 and magnesium AZ91E by the low pressure permanent mold process have been compared to the result of filling simulations for thin and thick castings. If the results of modeling is reliable when the liquid remains above the liquidus temperature, this is no longer the case when partial solidification occurs. The visco-elastic behavior of a partially solidified liquid is difficult to put into equation as it depends on the amount of shear it has been been subjected to. Attempts to predict misruns with a commercial software has been proven to be very difficult if not impossible; divergence of the numerical solution has been observed unless prohibitively long computing times are used. In order to overcome these difficulties from a practical standpoint, a simple method is proposed which consists in tracking the temperature of the advancing liquid metal front so as to make sure it will always be above so-called `Misrun Critical Temperature' (MCT) determined experimentally for thin and thick aluminum A356 and magnesium AZ91E castings. If the liquid metal front falls below this temperature, a cold-shut or misrun is likely to happen at this location. The values of MCT for thin and thick in aluminum A356 and magnesium AZ91E were determined experimentally on misrun castings of extreme geometries (a thin 2.5 mm wall cover and a 6mm to 25 mm thick bell housing). MCT was found to be lower for magnesium AZ91E and for the thicker castings.

Jan 1, 2011

By K. Woodward, Y. Potvin, B. McFadyen, M. Grenon

Open stoping has become a popular mining method in hard rock mines, not only due to the safety of the method as a non-entry approach, but also because of the high extraction rate and low costs. At mine sites, stope performance is evaluated by calculating stope overbreak using the stability chart. However, limitations of the stability chart regarding the precision of the predictions, nonconsideration of factors such as the influence of blasting, and the exclusion of underbreak have led to non-optimal designs. The capabilities of today's computers have increased the amount of data being collected and the power of models being built. This article presents a step towards a new stope design approach where stope overbreak and underbreak are measured and georeferenced using octrees at an approximately cubic metre resolution and predicted using multivariate statistical models (partial least square, linear discriminant analysis, and random forest). Results show that overbreak and underbreak location along the design surface and their magnitude are predicted with good precision using a random forest model. These predictions are used to build the expected geometry of the open stope. The resolution of the data and the use of multivariate analysis has enabled the prediction of variation in stope performance along the design surface, going well beyond the simple qualitative per stope face prediction provided by a traditional stability chart approach.

Jun 5, 2023

The recent mine disasters in Australian coal mines have initiated an introduction of Self-Contained Self-Rescuer (SCSR) as component in the development of new escape strategies for miners. These self-contained self-rescuers are closed circuit, demand sensitive breathing apparatus that make oxygen available to the wearer for a nominal period of time. Their operation is completely independent of the surrounding atmosphere. Once properly donned, the SCSR can assist a miner to escape from an area containing smoke, toxic gases or an oxygen deficient atmosphere. The duration of a typical SCSR is usually taken at the point of complete collapse of the breathing bag which is accompanied by an increase in breathing resistance and inhaled levels of carbon dioxide. Because the oxygen consumption (V02) and the heart rate are correlated, a prediction of V02 and consequently the duration of an SCSR can be made by monitoring the heart rate. Thirty-seven volunteers participated in field simulated escape trials at four underground coal mines. The results from the field trials suggested that oxygen consumption depends on the heart rate, the body weight and exercise rating of the miner. All the volunteers were asked to fill out the questionnaires to evaluate the performance of the units. The miners indicated that they could tolerate the inhaled temperature without any difficulty to breathing resistance. A complete statistical analysis of the field results is also presented.

Jan 1, 1997

Slurry flow, including flow through the charge, through the discharge grates, along the pulp lifters and its discharge from the mill is an important contributor to the efficiency of the grinding process within a SAG mill. Poor transport of finer ground material can adversely affect grinding leading to excess energy consumption and over-grinding of fine material. This paper extends a 1-way coupled DEM-SPH method to three dimensions and applies it to a 1.8 m diameter by 0.6 m long AG/SAG pilot mill. This provides detailed information on the internal flow of slurry within a SAG mill, including the prediction of dry regions and of slurry pooling. Full 3D analysis also allows the pulp flow patterns into and out of the mill via pulp lifter chamber to be investigated.

Jan 1, 2012

By John A. Gisby

Phase equilibria for multi-component systems can be calculated reliably from critically assessed thermodynamic data for sub-systems using software packages like MTDATA, developed by the National Physical Laboratory, UK (NPL). Models and data resulting from an ongoing Mineral Industry Research Organisation (MIRO) project make such calculations possible for the complex systems encountered during sulphide smelting, involving interactions between matte, slag, metal, and gas phases. Predictive calculations can be made that are directly relevant to industrial processes, covering composition and temperature ranges beyond the scope of hard- copy phase diagram compilations, allowing the feasibility of more economic and environmentally sound routes to be explored, better choice of materials to be made, and pilot plant studies to ,be directed more efficiently. Current applications include the selection of suitable fluxing practices in copper and nickel smelting, analysing the operation of the Kennecott copper smelter, optimising the recovery of precious metals and investigating refractory wear.

Jan 1, 2002

By W. K. Overbey

Surface fracture trace density, changes in roof rock type, and topographic unloading due to drainage were mapped for the mining areas located in the Blacksville-Osage, W. Va., quadrangles to investigate their influence on mine roof falls. Using these factors, a technique was developed to predict probable roof fall areas ahead of projected mining operations. As a feasibility test of this proposed technique, areas were delineated where one, two, and all three of these factors were operating to formulate a "potential hazard map" for comparison with roof fall observations that were made. The limited evidence suggests that in combination these factors are reliable predictors of where roof falls are likely to occur. This technique promises to be a useful tool in planning mining operations.

Jan 1, 1973

By Peter J. Tarkoy

The art of predicting rock excavating machine performance has become increasingly detailed and refined. Researchers using laboratory experiments and machine manufacturers using field observations have identified and defined mechanisms of failure, rock and tool interaction, and relevant design principles affecting them. Concurrently, practitioners have developed index tests which reflect rock properties relevant to machine performance. Empirical relationships between index properties and machine performance (penetration rate, cutter consumption, and machine utilization) have been established from past experience and are currently used throughout the industry. Contractors have used such relationships for estimating throughout the world. The detail in which geological, geotechnical, test, and project data, empirical relationships, and construction experience are utilized, is limited by time constraints imposed by the bidding period. To fully utilize all available data, methods of analysis, and construction experience, a simple computer program was developed for a microcomputer costing less than $7500. As a result, 1. machine performance predictions are detailed & reliable, 2. construction alternatives may be examined, 3. anticipated conditions & performance are graphically, documented & easily comparable to those encountered, and 4. results include a listing of assumptions & results of performance analyses & a graphic performance summary.

Jan 1, 1979

By H. Schunnesson, H. Fredriksson, D. Johansson, E. Söderström, S. Manzoor, A. Gustafson, M. Danielsson

Fragmentation analysis is an essential part of the optimization process in any mining operation. The costs of loading, hauling, and crushing the rock are strongly influenced by the size distribution of the blasted rock. Several direct and indirect methods are used to analyse or predict fragmentation, but none is entirely applicable to fragmentation assessment in sublevel caving mines, mainly because of the limitations imposed by the underground environment and the lack of all the required data to adequately describe the rock mass. Over the past few years, measurement while drilling (MWD) data has emerged as a potential tool to provide more information about the in-situ rock mass. This research investigated if MWD can be used to predict rock fragmentation in sublevel caving. The MWD data obtained from a sublevel caving mine in northern Sweden were used to find the relationship between rock fragmentation and the nature of the rock mass. The loading operation of the mine was filmed for more than 12 months to capture images of loaded load-haul-dump (LHD) buckets. The blasted material in those buckets was classified into four categories based on the median particle size (X50). The results showed a stronger correlation for fine and medium fragmented material with rock type (MWD data) than coarser material. The paper presents a model for prediction of fragmentation, which concludes that it is possible to use MWD data for fragmentation prediction.

Mar 2, 2022

By M. E. Kuchta

LKAB's Kiruna mine, located above the Arctic Circle in northern Sweden, is one of the world's largest underground mines, and it is one of the most modern. The Kiruna orebody is a high-grade magnetite containing about 80% low-phosphorous iron ore and about 20% high-phosphorous iron ore in situ. The mining method used is large-scale sublevel caving. Due to the blending of high-phosphorous ore with low-phosphorous ore during the extraction process, only about 20% of the run-of-mine ore can be used for the mine's low-phosphorous product. The blending process is highly irregular and difficult for the mine-planning personnel to predict. An algorithm was developed that uses principles of gravity flow to predict the run-of-mine phosphorous grades from the in situ geologic block model. The model can be used for both long- and short-term predictions.

Jan 1, 2003

By Saghafi A

Spoil piles are produced routinely in open cut coal mines. Spoil piles may contain waste coal and other carbonaceous horizons. Coal and carbonaceous materials react with oxygen in the atmosphere, producing heat. If the rate at which heat is generated is greater than the rate at which heat can be dissipated, the temperature of the spoil pile rises. If the heating remains unchecked, spontaneous combustion can occur. Spontaneous combustion poses significant safety, environmental and economic problems if it should become established in spoil piles. Using the basic features of self heating in spoil, the use of model is directed toward developing quantitative prediction of spontaneous combustion in open cut coal mine spoil Piles.

Jan 1, 1998

By Robert J. Timko, Lincoln Derick

This work is a follow-up to previous research that attempted to predict the location of spontaneous heating episodes in underground coal mine pillars. The objective of the original work was to see if the data obtained by commonly used detection methods could accurately predict spontaneous combustion episodes in coal pillars. Data accumulation during the study was enhanced when a spontaneously generated fire occurred within one of the pillars being examined. The fire provided researchers with realistic data that could be used to determine if fire prediction was possible. Results from the initial study found that the atmospheric status equations that were used provided little advance notice that combustion would occur where it did. This study reevaluated the accumulated data by applying it to recently developed equations and compared these results with previously obtained information to determine if a combination of these techniques could more effectively predict impending combustion.

Jan 1, 1995

By L. Ntlhakana, K. Khoza-Shangase, G. Nelson, I. Maposa

Occupational noise-induced hearing loss (ONIHL) is associated with various risk factors in South African mines. We investigated the association between standard threshold shifts (STSs) and exposure to noise and platinum mine dust (PMD), using demographic data, five years of annual audiometry screening results, and noise and dust exposure data. Miners’ age, sex, percentage hearing loss (PLH), and dust and noise exposure data were gathered, and a linear mixed effects regression model used to predict STS. Average occupational exposure levels to noise and dust were calculated from recorded measurements. A total of 12 692 records were analysed. Most miners were male (89.6%) and more than 50% were younger than 41 years. More than 70% were exposed to > 85 dBA noise and 58% were exposed to 1.5–2.99 mg/m3 PMD. Changes in hearing levels ranged from 8.3 dBHL at baseline (2014/2015) to 10 dBHL in 2016 (STS), with no changes thereafter. The model showed that the estimated effect on STS for males was 27% and 21% higher than for females, for the left and right ear, respectively The estimated effect of age, PLH, noise exposure and years of exposure on STS was < 10% for each variable. There was no statistically significant association between PMD and STS. The combined effects of age, sex, years of exposure to noise, and noise exposure levels, and strength of associations can be used to predict STS for this group of miners. Our findings may be used to measure the efficacy of the mine’s hearing conservation programme.

Aug 1, 2021