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By M. Gobla

"Since 1994 the Bureau of Reclamation has used risk analysis to evaluate dams. Risk considers both the likelihood of failure and the expected consequences should failure occur. Risk analysis relies on the detailed formulation and critical analysis of all possible potential failure modes. Potential failure modes are formulated by describing the sequence of events that must occur to result in failure, where failure is defined as the uncontrolled release of the impounded reservoir. Failure occurs in response to loadings such as water seepage through a dam (static forces), shaking from an earthquake (dynamic forces), sudden flood inflows (hydrologic forces), or accidental overfilling (operational errors). Reclamation has applied risk analysis methods to inactive and abandoned mines to evaluate tailings dams and flooded underground mines. Case histories of potential failure mode analysis as applied to mine impounded water illustrates what critical technical information is needed to determine if failure is likely, what the consequences of failure are likely to be, and what are the highest risks that should be addressed first. INTRODUCTION Impounded water, and high water content wastes, at mining and industrial processing sites are potential threats to public safety and the environment. Recent failures such as the TVA Kingston flyash impoundment failure in Tennessee in 2008 (5.4 million yd3 released), the Mt Poly Tailings Dam failure in British Columbia in 2014 (5.8 million yd3 released), and the Smarco Fundao Tailings Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 (78 million yd3 released) has renewed attention to this issue. Potential risks from impounded water at mining and industrial sites originates not only from tailing dams, but also from water in process ponds and conveyance pipelines, sediment retention dams, water retention dams, mine pit lakes, and flooded underground mine workings. Conventional water retaining dams also have a record of failure. Notable examples of failure include Vajont Dam in Italy in 1963 (2,600 lives lost), Banqiao and Shimantan Dams in China in 1975 (171,000 lives lost), and Machhu-II Dam in India (10,000 lives lost). After the 1976 Teton Dam failure in Idaho, the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) established a Dam Safety Program. By 1984 the agency developed and began using risk analysis methods. Reclamation operates and maintains an inventory of hundreds of aging dams which were designed and constructed over a period of one hundred years. Many of these facilities were constructed using engineering design and construction methods which would not be considered good practice according to present day standards. Diligent observational monitoring, detailed site investigations, and the application of risk evaluation to the BOR dam inventory has identified many deficiencies resulting in significant demands on available funding for remediation efforts. The application of risk analysis has allowed the agency to rank sites by risk. By giving priority of remedial efforts to high risk sites, significant improvements to dam safety have been achieved. BOR has also applied risk analysis to evaluate and reclaim inactive and abandoned mining and industrial sites. The application of risk analysis methods in the mining industry is not new, the methodology was transferred to the mining industry more than 15 years ago as discussed in ICOLD Bulleting 121 (ICOLD, 2001), yet failures persist. This paper is meant to convey the lessons learned from BOR’s use of risk analyses in its work on mine sites."

Jan 1, 2017

By Luis Alberto Martinez Tipe

The paper show how the inclusion of the uncertainty of the geology of the orebody into the mine planning and design process can be of great help, for the mine planner, in both assessing and quantifying the existing risk in the key project indicators such as DCF, and ore tonnage. This is achieved by using conditional simulation and Monte Carlo techniques which provide equally probable models of the original orebody model of the deposit. In this fashion, it is possible to assess the sensitivity of the pit design and related long-term production scheduling (cutbacks) to grade uncertainty.

Sep 12, 2005

Sophisticated pit optimisation software has allowed mine planning engineers to generate mining outlines that consider the numerous factors that have a major effect on the success or otherwise of a mine plan. The outlines are generally generated using a range of values for which one can assume a fixed mining cost and a variable revenue. During analysis, the expected costs and revenues are used to investigate the cashflow and sensitivities. Ultimately, the final pit and incremental outlines, or shells, are selected for a given expected price. This paper proposes an alternative method for incremental pit shell selection that considers the risk the mine be prepared to accept. The life of mine is divided into a number of Business Risk Periods (BRPs). The BRP represents the period of time over which the owner is prepared to invest capital. During each BRP, the mine will then operate at a selected investment cost which is generally equal to or greater than the minimum required to meet production targets. In this way, a robust mine plan can be produced which allows the mine to react to change without having to alter the incremental shell limits while maintaining a strategic risk profile. This paper will summarise factors to be considered in selection of the BRP and the incremental pit shells within the BRP.

Jan 1, 1998

By Denis Yaychuk, Gary Billingsley

The economic eva luation of a mineral property or mining venture should include the quantification of ri k as part of the analy is. The re ults of such an analysis provide the decision-makers not only with the most likely financial outcome and the probability of achieving that or any other outcome. but al o with a ranki ng of the relative impact of all the ri sk factors. These type of resu lts offer more complete information for investment and technical deci ions than the traditional cash flow/ ensitivity analysis. In addi tion. by attempting to quantify ri sk. the personnel providing the va ri able input are forced to take a much clo e r look at the data involved, and are fo rced to work together. the reby increa ing substantially the awa reness of the impact their work and others· work has on th e outcome of the analysis.

Jan 1, 1986

The paper examines the current status of risk and accepted practice in mining geomechanics. It explores some deficiencies in human capital, risk analysis and our future technical needs, and suggests ways of improving our estimates of slope reliability through knowledge sharing and research.

Jan 1, 2003

By L. H. Pye

For large mining sites in the west, the traditional method for performing an ecological risk assessment (ERA) provides little useful information for risk managers faced with selecting and designing sound remedial options. Current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk assessment guidance largely supports quantitative risk characterization of individual species as surrogates for population and ecosystem-level effects. Developing a work plan for investigating and remediating ecosystem-level changes potentially caused by large-scale historic mining/smelting contaminant release requires a decision process that incorporates a more holistic ecosystem management approach. Some of the most wasteful efforts associated with mine site ecological risk assessments arise when the risk analysis and data collection programs are not specifically linked up-front to the risk manager's decision needs. The following paper discusses the importance of employing a decision-based, ecosystem management framework when conducting ecological risk assessments at large mining sites. A case study of an ecological risk assessment currently being performed at a large New Mexico copper mine site is presented.

Jan 1, 1999

By W. P. Blacutt

A financial-economic model incorporating physical, market, and policy variables is developed for mining investment in Bolivia. Additional risk criteria emanating from political instability. new mining legislation, recent environmental regulations, and a new minerals taxation system are accounted for and are integrated into the investment decision model. Results of the model indicate that geologic and market variables have the dominant effect on the investment-worth function. Among policy variables, exchange rate and taxation policies have the most significant influence. Depreciation allowance for infrastructure development has negligible weight in the investment-worth function. The business structure of the firm considering investing in the Bolivian Polymetallic Project is found to be an instrumental factor in the investment-worth outcome. Specifically, undiversified mining companies whose operations exclude zinc production as the primary source of revenue would benefit most from adoption of this project.

Jan 1, 1993

By Robin G. Burn

An orebody is a mining company's greatest asset; without it there can be no mine. Yet, by the very nature of the industry, orebodies are wasting assets whose progressive depletion must be balanced by continued discovery of new ore to enable both the industry to survive and the raw material demands of society to be satisfied. Although mineral exploration may be viewed as any activity which leads to the creation of investment opportunities in the mineral industry, ultimately new ore can only be generated through discovery. The process leading to discovery may involve a long chain of independent and interdependent events. It will almost always be repetitious and require the examination of many prospects or trials before the goal, a commercially successful discovery, is satisfied. Long term survival of a mining company through regular discovery of new ore, requires a continued commitment of funds and effort to mineral exploration.

Jan 1, 1984

By Carlos Álvarez, Sergio Sánchez, Michael Mains, Giuseppe Gaspari

Extensive record of tunnels excavated with SEM (sequential excavation method) in swelling grounds exists in literature: global experiences include successful tunnelling both through clayey and rock masses with time dependant deformation. However, TBM (tunnel boring machine) use in swelling conditions with high water pressures (EPB, earth pressure balance, machines or slurry shields) is much less documented, considering the lower expected impact due to the limited stress relief and operations under saturated conditions. This paper summarizes a number of studies conducted as part of the risk assessment and detailed design of a large diameter TBM tunnel in variable and challenging geological conditions. The tunnel alignment is driven through mixed face conditions including swelling soils and clayey soft rocks, prone to intense time-dependent deformations. The paper also describes the approach adopted for the design of pre-cast segmental lining subject to both swelling actions and high seismic loads, due to the regional active tectonic faults. The design of this lining included a detailed parametric study performed to handle the existing uncertainties related with ground characterization, potential deconnement and complex geological congurations.

Jun 23, 2024

By Bartho J. Admiraal

"As part of the Schiphol-Amsterdam-Almere project, the largest aqueduct in Europe is being built in order for the A1 motorway to cross the Vecht River. The A1 consists of 12 lanes and the total width of the aqueduct will be 65 m (213 ft). The total length of the structure will be 620 m (2035 ft). Speed of construction is essential for the DBFM-contract, which forms the primary reason for choosing a building method with a horizontal water retaining barrier created by low pressure grouting. After final checks on the water tightness of the silica based layer (softgel), excavation to a depth of approximately 12 m (40 ft) below the water table could be started in order to build the aqueduct.This paper presents a new approach for the calculation of the required grout volumes needed to ensure a “softgel” layer without gaps or holes. The approach applies measurement of deviations due to execution aspects in a probabilistic model. With this model, one is able to study the effects in a field application, i.e. multiple rows of grouted spheres. The results are visualized in order to analyze the risk of holes more easily. It is evident that the existence of a hole means a major leakage. By completing multiple runs, the strategy for grout volumes can be adjusted to minimize this risk.INTRODUCTIONThe Dutch Department of Waterways and Public Works invests over € 4 billion between 2012-2020 to increase the capacity of 63 km (41 mi) motorways of one of Holland’s major corridors. The A1/A6 will be transformed over a distance of 20 kilometers (13 mi). Near Muiden, the current drawbridge on the A1 for crossing the Vecht river will be replaced by a new aqueduct to be located slightly south of the existing bridge."

Jan 1, 2016

By I. Cameron-Clarke

This paper describes the design of a wellfield to provide a water supply for a new mine in southern Africa. A hydrogeological investigation was conducted that included the drilling and test pumping of eight wells located within a highly jointed pyroxenite aquifer. The wellfield was designed using a simple probabilistic analysis. This approach allowed the variability of the aquifer parameters to be taken into account. A risk assessment analysis was then carried out to evaluate the level of assurance that a reliable water supply could be provided by the wellfield. The analysis was also used to assess the effects of supplementing the water supply by pumping from nearby flooded workings.

Jan 1, 1992

By N. Demirel

Estimating productivity of a walking dragline is of paramount concern to mining engineers and mine planners. Risk based evaluation of the dragline productivity is a valuable tool to estimate the dragline?s long-term performances and availabilities, to develop preventive maintenance plans, and to make future projections about the machine?s performance. This paper aims to provide mining professionals with an overview of risk assessment methodology for productivity of two walking draglines, PAGE 736 and MARION 7820, which have been operating in Tunçbilek open cast coal mine of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Turkey. The study encompasses three main stages as: (i) acquiring of monthly maintenance records, operating hours, mechanical and electrical failure hours between 1998 and 2009; (ii) reliability modeling using mean time between failure data; (iii) determining hazard rate and consequences to compute risk associated with dragline productivity. The results showed that that Page 736 (20 yd3) is seemed to be more reliable and less likely to fail when compared with Marion 7820 (40 yd3). The operating hours without failure range from 41 to 51 hours with 50 percent reliability.

Jan 1, 2011

By H. S. Duzgun, N. Demirel

Estimating productivity of a walking dragline is of paramount concern to mining engineers and mine planners. Risk based evaluation of the dragline productivity is a valuable tool to estimate the dragline’s long-term availability, to develop preventive maintenance plans and to make future projections about the dragline’s performance. This paper aims to provide mining professionals with an overview of risk assessment methodology for productivity of two walking draglines, Page 736 and Marion 7820, which have been operating in the Tunçbilek openpit coal mine of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Turkey. The study encompasses three main stages: (i) acquiring of monthly maintenance records, operating hours, mechanical and electrical failure hours between 1998 and 2009; (ii) reliability modeling using mean time between failure data and (iii) determining hazard rate and consequences to compute risk associated with dragline productivity. The results showed that that Page 736 (15.29 m3) seemed to be more reliable and less likely to fail when compared with Marion 7820 (30.58 m3). The operating hours without failure range from 41 to 51 hours with 50% reliability.

Jan 1, 2011

By F. Calizaya

A booster fan is an underground ventilation device installed in the main airstream to handle the total quantity of air circulated to one or more working districts. It is installed in a permanent stopping and equipped with airlock doors, a monitoring system and interlocking devices between the main fan and the booster fan. When adequately installed, a booster fan can be used to reduce the main fan pressure, reduce leakage and decrease the power consumption. However, an inadequate installation can increase the likelihood of mine fies and recirculation of air contaminants. This study identifies hazards associated with the operation and maintenance of booster fans. It analyzes the accompanying risks and recommends control measures to reduce those risks to acceptable levels. The ventilation network of an existing coal mine was updated to include a booster fan. The hazards associated with the operation of this fan were identified, the risks analyzed and the esponse to each failure mode established.

Mar 1, 2014

International tenders for contract mining opportunities require the Contractor to make an assessment of risk for an operation with a life span of up to twenty-five years usually based on data made available by the Client. This paper seeks to address how the Contractor assesses the data and quantifies the risks associated with the project. The areas of risk are common to most projects, but in the--Lontractor's case, risk assessment is carried out on the Client's data base and within a compressed time frame of usually less than six months. Incorporation of that risk assessment into the contract documentation is also discussed. Practical examples are given in a number of areas.

Jan 1, 1986

By K. Oraee

Mining Ventures are considered as high risk projects and therefore managing the risks is inevitable. Risk assessment is an important part of the complex process of risk management, hence applying appropriated and practical methods for ranking the risks associated with projects, can help to perform a better risk management. In this research the applicability of using Techniques for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method for risk ranking in an underground mine, extracting by block caving method, was studied. Via this method, the risk associated with reserve estimation ranked as the first while in conventional method (P-I Matrix method) located in the sixteenth. Also there were significant differences in ranks of the other risks. Considering the more criteria, with different weights, in comparison with conventional methods, the results comprised from TOPSIS method are more reliable. By implementing this method risks are ranked better and more realistic and consequently then will be managed more efficient.

Jan 1, 2011

By Riley S. J

Ranger Uranium Mine is located within the Alligator Rivers Region of the Northern Territory of Australia and surrounded by the World Heritage listed Kakadu National Park (Figure 1). The mining operation is currently producing about 1500 tonnes of uranium oxide annually, as well as considerable volumes of waste rock, low grade ore and tailings. The rehabilitation of the project should ensure that the radioactive mill tailings and other contaminants remain contained for at least 200 years, as required by the existing guidelines (Commonwealth of Australia, 1987). The present uranium mining operation is regulated by the Northern Territory Department of Mines and Energy who must refer to the Environmental Requirements when considering regulatory options. These Environmental Requirements were agreed by the

Jan 1, 1994

By C Smith, R I. Maczkowiack, P D. Erskine

Open cut coal-mining has been conducted in the Bowen Basin region of central Queensland for almost five decades, and has disturbed an estimated area of 140 000 ha of agricultural land until 2011. Approximately one-third of the area disturbed by mining has been rehabilitated to pastures or bushland. However, none of the rehabilitated land has yet been assigned a specific end-use. This research project develops an approach for assessing end-use risks for the regionÆs mined land, and develops risk assessment models for selected end-uses. First, a web-based survey of stakeholders was used to identify risks to be assessed. The risks identified were surface erosion, subsurface erosion, bushfires, weeds and feral animals. The survey also identified possible end-uses of bushland and grazing. Second, conceptual risk models were developed based on the risk assessment concepts of likelihood and consequence specified in the Australian and New Zealand risk assessment standards. Likelihood was modelled using site characteristics and management factors that influence the occurrence probability of risks (eg surface erosion), while consequence was modelled using a set of site condition indicators and condition thresholds (changes in root-zone water-holding capacity, soil erodibility, vegetation ground cover and soil organic matter and transition probability to a non-preferred ecosystem type).The factors influencing likelihood and consequence for each risk have been integrated using Bayesian networks. The next step in model development is to parameterise the Bayesian networks using existing equations, empirical datasets, or expert opinion where data are not available. The parameterised models will be used to assess grazing and bushland end-uses against erosion, bushfire, weed and feral animal risks for rehabilitated mined land sites, with the purpose of identifying the relative risks associated with each end-use, and the landform design specifications and land management practices under which end-use risks are minimised.CITATION:Maczkowiack, R I, Smith, C and Erskine, P D, 2012. Risk assessment models for post-mining land use, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2012, pp 33-42 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 10, 2012

By Nilufer Kursunoglu

Despite being crucial for meeting the world’s energy demands, coal mining operations present considerable health risks, especially when it comes to exposure to coal dust. Longwall coal mining, an advanced technique, has considerably enhanced production but made dust control more difficult. Due to its explosive nature, coal dust continues to be a serious and dangerous concern in the industry despite developments in safety technology. This study aims to comprehensively assess the risk of coal dust explosions by integrating fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis methodologies, offering precise risk ratings for various root causes. A fuzzy risk matrix was developed to assign exact risk ratings to identified root causes. Additionally, a Pareto chart was used to identify the main reasons and suggest particular preventive measures. 17 significant causes were determined for underground coal mines based on the study’s methodology, and some preventive measures were suggested. In accordance with fuzzy risk rating values, root causes were divided into six categories. The root hazard with the highest risk rating was identified as ‘accumulation of inflammable gas/gases’. The proposed approach was used to examine incidents caused by coal dust explosions in Turkish coal mines in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of combining the fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis for assessing coal dust explosions. This study gives not only a solid framework for risk assessment but also critical information for classifying the risks associated with coal mine dust explosions. The results highlight the critical necessity for proactive and preventive actions to reduce the hazards of coal dust explosions and protect the safety of mining workers.

Nov 16, 2023

By M J. Pejovic, S BoÜevski, I Miljanovic, M Hudej, A Milutinovic, A Petrovski

The paper deals with the problem of managing the supplies of consumables (energy resources, lubricants, explosives, explosive supplies, tires, spare parts, etc) in mines. After the introductory remarks and comments, a general stochastic model of supply, relating in general to the dynamic programming method is presented. A selection of stochastic supply model for experiments and research by the authors of this paper is not a coincidence, based on of their long experience, showing that this type of model is the most suitable to provide support for decision-making and management of supplies of consumables in mines.In order for the problem?of?consumables?supply?management to be reviewed, in whole and objectively from the aspect of risk, experimental tests of the stochastic model in real conditions were performed at the limestone open pit mine æZelenikovecÆ near Skopje, the capital of Macedonia. The scope of the experimental research enabled reliable analysis. The results obtained confirm the efficiency and reliability of the stochastic model and two separate manipulative-operational positions regarding its application, which may have an important influence on the optimisation of supplies.

Sep 26, 2011