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By J. H. Kempton

The scrutiny given to model predictions of pit-lake water quality has focused attention on the uncertainty associated with long-term predictions. Although comparison of probabilistic predictive modeling of water quality in existing pit lakes indicates that short-term predictions can bracket most parameters, uncertainties in wall-rock reactions and the stability of groundwater composition and climate remain unquantified. This overview of the uncertainties associated with longer-term predictions is presented as support for those considering policy decisions that must be made in the absence of reliable estimates of future conditions.

Jan 1, 1998

By Bruce D. Hanson

A computer model capable of simulating the basic production system in a variety of underground mining methods has been developed at the Twin Cities Mining Research Center. This Bureau of Mines paper describes the simulation of the basic production system at the working face, which includes drilling, blasting, mucking, and roof bolting. The model is event-oriented; that is, the status of the system is updated at the occurrence of an event. All event or activity times, including failure and repair of equipment, are treated as stochastic variables. A location dimension, in addition to the time dimension, is used, allowing the simulation of multiple location systems. To aid the user in determining the efficiency of his system, the model provides several reports. An event or activity report gives the frequency of occurrence total active time, and cumulative delay statistics for each event. An equipment report delineates the availability and utilization of all equipment. A production report provides information on various performance measures such as tons produced and holes drilled. The cost report gives the cost of various elements in the system. Operating data from an actual mining situation were used in validating the model. In addition to the description of the model, examples of simulation experiments which were performed on a room-and-pillar mine system are given. Use of the model to determine methods for improving the efficiency of the system is discussed.

Jan 1, 1974

The current economic climate and demand for iron ore has resulted in mine operators being prepared to accept aggressive slope designs and associated failures provided that they can be quantified (ie volume of failure and clean up costs, etc) and incorporated into the mining costs, at a feasibility study level. This has numerous implications for pit slope design/geomechanics. Typically when geotechnical engineers conduct slope stability modelling a single value, usually the average or mean value for model input parameters (ie structural orientations, material properties and hydrological conditions) are chosen. The implications resulting from using a single value for model input parameters will vary depending on how the modeller has chosen the value, ie should the modeller choose a mean value from a log-normal distribution of material strengths an optimistic representation of the stability may eventuate, consequently if the designer decides to conservatively downgrade the values by a nominal factor, a pessimistic representation of slope angles may occur, which would result in excessive stripping and mine development costs. A more realistic and representative way to model the inherent variability of geological/geotechnical conditions would be to do so probabilistically. Whereby the modeller can assess the variability of the geological structure as observed/recorded during the core logging process and a similar approach for the material strength properties. The final model output would be a distribution of factors of safety in relation to overall slope angles, ie probabilities of failure for individual slope angles could be determined. This output (graph) could be modified by the mining engineer to incorporate mining costs as well as clean up costs for the respective slope angles and associated failure volumes, ie probabilities of failure. The author intends to provide a detailed overview of the processes involved in deriving a geotechnical design, ie; starting from the data collection phase (core logging/face mapping), through to the data interpretation and formulation of slope parameters; determining the variability and uncertainties associated with each of the process; ensuring that it is adequately captured in the model input parameters; and how the mining engineer could utilise this information to derive final feasibility study mining costs.

Jan 1, 2009

By Neil T. Russo, Peter M. Kandaris, Jogi S. Gadok

"Assessment of subsurface data for foundation design in support of long high voltage electric transmission lines is best accomplished using a probabilistic strategy since only a small portion of structure locations are typically sampled. Probabilistic approaches provide a tool to evaluate site uncertainty in a systematic and rational manner. This paper provides a case history of a risk-based design approach for a recently completed 191-mile long 69/161/345kV steel monopole transmission line traversing Central Iowa. The project owner made available limited subsurface information at project initiation, requiring the design team to obtain additional data within a constrained budget for 1067 large diameter, laterally-loaded deep drilled shaft reinforced concrete piers. The team commissioned a geologic desktop study to reduce uncertainty in subsurface evaluations and aid in selecting additional sample sites. In total, investigation programs tested approximately 15 percent of structure sites. The paper details the probabilistic approach used to estimate foundation geotechnical design parameters, with information from the various studies categorizing strata both laterally and with depth. Low-bound parameters were estimated via a statistical approach at a predetermined reliability level. Significant savings resulted from this approach when compared to conservative deterministic processes. Project QA/QC logged subsurface soil conditions during foundation excavation, then compared as-found conditions to the conditions assumed for design. The team redesigned foundations if either a non-conservative variance in soil conditions was observed or if bedrock elevation differed significantly from design assumptions. As a result, only 22 out of 1067 foundations required modification during construction (2% variance from initial design) with negligible impact on the construction budget and schedule.INTRODUCTIONFoundation design for long high voltage transmission lines presents a unique challenge in that the assessment of subsurface conditions typically requires substantial data that may or may not be obtainable. Investigations are usually performed well in advance of construction, often with limited access to structure sites and typically in remote areas. Probability and risk-based investigation and design strategies offer an opportunity to systematically estimate subsurface profiles and geotechnical design properties with limited data. Risk can be further reduced with dedicated field inspection of foundation construction along with good field and design team communication during construction. This paper presents a case history of probabilistic methods used for the investigation and design of electric transmission line foundations."

Jan 1, 2017

By C. O. Swanson

CALCULATING the average grade of a gold deposit is a problem that presents certain unique difficulties. Particularly troublesome is the fact that the average of the samples taken from a deposit is likely to be higher than the grade of the ore that is eventually mined, even when allowance is made for dilution and other factors resulting from the mining operations. It would seem that this situation is due to the presence in the deposits of structural peculiarities which have not been properly taken into account, since estimating the average grade of the broken ore produced from the deposits does not present the same difficulty. It is therefore evident that structural considerations are of prime importance in estimating the grade of a deposit. This fact is clearly realized and taken into account in cases where the boundaries of the orebodies and the variations within them are easily recognized. But in many gold deposits this condition is not satisfied, a circumstance which can be regarded as the main source of difficulty. Lacking definite information concerning the structure, we are apt to use certain procedures which are either empirical or based on general probabilities.

Jan 1, 1945

By C. W. Eggert

"The idea for this talk came to me last year when I was attending the Canadian Gold Metallurgists Meeting. I talked about it to a friend of mine who is an authority on mineral dressing, particularly the theoretical end of the business. He remarked that this was an excellent technical note, why don't you write it up. This is what I have for presentation this morning. I hope in presenting this type of idea in this way it is in keeping with the tradition of the Canadian Gold Metallurgists which was to function on a not too sophisticated level and where operators could get together and trade ideas in an informal way.My basic thesis is that it should be possible to evaluate screen analyses by the application of the standard statistical probability theory. In any statistical analysis the sample is the first consideration. If we look at existing methods of size evaluation we find it is usually based on the fact that a given particle will pass one square aperature and not another. One system of standardizing how these aperatures will be set up is based on Rittenger' s work with the ratio of hole sizes proportional to the square root of 2. Keeping in mind the limitation we have accepted this as our method of 11 sizing"" in attempting to apply standard statistical methods to screen analysis."

Jan 1, 1968

By W. E. Roscoe

The probability of making an exploration discovery in Canada can be calculated from Derry's (1970) data on exploration expenditures and number of discoveries over the last nineteen years. Considering an average exploration "try" to be $30,000, the probability of a discovery with one try has decreased tenfold from about 0.01 in 1951 to 0.001 in 1969. A plot of these probabilities can be extrapolated to the future, giving a 1969-71 three-year average probability of 0.00096 with 90 per cent confidence limits of 0.00042 and 0.00153. Using this probability, various calculations can be made, such as (1) the probability of making at least one discovery for any given exploration expenditure, (2) the probability of ultimate ruin or survival of the exploration investment process and (3) the expected value of an exploration investment. There is a critical minimum amount per discovery that must be re-invested in exploration, no matter how large the original investment is, for exploration to survive at all in the long run. Currently, this critical minimum is $31,200,000 with 90 per cent confidence limits of $19,600,000 and $71,400,000.

Jan 1, 1971

By A. F. Silva, R. Dockendorff, J. M. Girao Sotomayor, V. F. Navarro Torres, C. Castro

This paper shows the importance of performing probabilistic analyses in open pits, especially for mine planning, which can lead to more efficient ore extraction and meeting the acceptability criteria for safety in mine slopes. Three-dimensional stability analyses were performed to evaluate the future geometry of a large open pit for iron ore extraction in Brazil. The strength parameters of the lithologies were calibrated using ruptures in the pit walls. After determining the factors of safety (FoSs) from the calibrated parameters, probabilistic analyses were performed using the total range of values of each parameter under different field conditions to verify the reliability of the initial analysis. In this sense, it was possible to plot the probability of failure (PoF) and the FoS on the graph of slope height versus slope interramp angle (IRA) for the future pit in each lithology. IRA recommendations are made for two scenarios: (1) the best scenario: dry without ubiquitous joints and (2) the worst scenario: the water table at 10 m depth with ubiquitous joints in the most unfavourable direction. The results show that probabilistic evaluation is an important tool for establishing alert mechanisms in slopes that can be termed stable.

Jul 2, 2022

By John G. Kovac

A computer simulation has been developed to estimate the chances of a miner making a successful escape while wearing a SCSR. The model takes into account: (1) training in the use of SCSRs, (2) apparatus integrity, and (3) the oxygen cost of a mine escape. This Bureau of Mines report examines survival odds for a prototypical escape, and illustrates how these odds change when SCSR training is improved.

Jan 1, 2009

By John G. Kovac

A computer simulation has been developed by the US. Bureau of Mines to estimate the chances of a miner making a successful escape while wearing a self-contained self-rescuer (SCSR). The model takes into account (1) training in the use of SCSR's, (2) apparatus integrity, and (3) oxygen cost of a mine escape. This report examines survival odds for a prototypical escape, and illustrates how these odds change when SCSR training is improved.

Jan 1, 2009

By Calvin L. Stevenson

The probability of a particle passing through a maze is predictable and consistent. This principle may be utilized to effect a particle size separation of materials by presenting a physical maze to a stream of material that will allow the fine particles to pass, while deflecting the coarse particles. A maze is effective even though all apertures encountered are many times larger than the particles being separated. By designing a machine that allows the probability parameters to be controlled and varied without changing physical dimensions, probability sizing becomes a useful tool for the separation of granular materials.

Jan 1, 1967

By T. T. Read

A SHORT time ago, one of the large steel companies courteously furnished the author with detailed records of the operations of a considerable number of iron blast furnaces over a period of two months. These will be made the basis of a subsequent study, but in beginning this study one of -the first points requiring consideration was the probable error of the records, for what otherwise might be regarded as significant differences of performance under different conditions were perhaps really due to errors of observation, or failure to observe and record variations. If it is assumed, in blast-furnace records and calculations, that known quantities or factors are constant, when as a matter of fact they are variable, the effects of these variations may erroneously be ascribed to some other cause. This is quite clearly expressed in the following quotation from E. Buckingham:1 Theory always operates on an ideally simplified picture of reality because real phenomena are unmanageably complicated. The results obtained are not exactly true for any, real phenomenon, though they may be for an ideal one; and the approxi¬mation with which a theoretical equation, however obtained, represents the actual facts, always depends on the approximation in essentials between the ideal picture and its real prototype. The purpose of dimensional reasoning is to find out how some quantity which is involved in the phenomenon under consideration is related to certain others; or to find the relation connecting two or more quantities which vary, or may vary, simulta-neously during the course of the phenomenon. Since we know that we must have a complete equation to start with, we begin by thinking the matter over, to see whether the quantities we have in mind are the only ones involved. Usually it is evident that they are not; so we next make a list of all the quantities we can think of which might under any circumstances be important. Upon considering this list, which is often a long one, it is usually evident that under the actual circumstances a number of these quantities may safely be ignored; so we cross them off the list and thus pass from our most general conception of the phenomenon to an ideal simpler one, in which these quantities are not involved at all.

Jan 3, 1925

By John E. Kinnison

The Mission mine, located in southern Arizona near Tucson, is a recently developed open pit which produces 15,000 tons per day of copper ore. The mine lies on a wide and gently sloping bajada sweeping northeasterly from the Sierrita mountains. It derives its name from the nearby Mission San Xavier del Bac, built circa 1700. The ore body is everywhere covered by about 200 feet of alluvium, as are the adjacent Pima and Palo Verde mines. The geology of the Mission deposit is known principally through the study of diamond drill holes spaced 150 to 300 feet apart. The open pit is in an infant stage and has not yet revealed much of the deposit, although information obtained there by the operating staff, and from a few thousand feet of exploratory underground workings, has added significantly to the general fund of knowledge. Permission to publish was granted by the American Smelting and Refining Company. I am indebted to Kenyon Richard and J. H. Courtright for criticism of this paper and for their direction during the several years in which I studied the Mission deposit. Acknowledgment is given to consultant in petrography, Robert L. DuBois of the University of Arizona. The only previous publication pertaining directly to the geology of file Mission deposit appeared in 1959 (Richard and Courtright), and may not be everywhere readily available. Cooper (1960) has published a short paper on the district

Jan 1, 1963

By L. Gutierrez, M. Pawlik

The rheology artificial mixtures of bitumen with fine quartz of varying bitumen content, as well as actual oil sand ores, was investigated under different physicochemical conditions (pH, temperature). All rheological measurements were conducted using a Haake Rotovisco VT550 rotational viscometer, connected to a fixture specifically designed to measure properties of settling suspensions. It was found that at low bitumen contents (1 %, wt.) the pH of the slurries was the most important parameter that controlled the rheology of quartz-bitumen slurries. At higher bitumen contents (10%, wt.), it was a combination of high temperature and high pH that gave the lowest apparent viscosities and yield stresses of the model mixtures. These model observations correlated well with the rheology data obtained for slurries of actual oil sand ores. The overall results were discussed in terms of aggregation-dispersion phenomena between bitumen and mineral particles.

Jan 1, 2009

By D. R. Nagaraj, Napoleon Tercero, Raymond Farinato

"Several studies conducted recently have shown that molybdenite flotation from Cu-Mo ores is adversely impacted in sea water at pH >~ 10.0 irrespective of the pH modifier; under the same conditions Cu sulfide flotation is relatively unaffected. This has been attributed to the presence of Mg2+ ions and their hydrolysis products in the sea water which adsorb and precipitate on molybdenite surfaces as Mg(OH)2. However, why and how Mg(OH)2 impacts only molybdenite flotation in the complex flotation pulps containing a multitude of minerals is not understood. The work presented in this paper probes the interface and interphase regions near the edge and basal planes of natural molybdenite (MoS2) in aqueous solutions and flotation pulps, particularly in the presence of copper ore pulp and added Mg2+. Differences in interaction of metal ions and their hydrolysis products (Mg2+, Mg(OH)+) were measured on the two faces of this anisotropic mineral. How those differences relate to molybdenite floatability and the impact of aqueous solution chemistry are discussed.INTRODUCTIONWater resource management is an important sustainability challenge in mineral processing. In view of the shortage of fresh water in many parts of the world, mineral processing plants are evaluating alternative sources. Seawater flotation has received much attention recently and there have been several important studies reported in the literature, particularly for the processing of Cu-Mo ores (S. Castro, 2012; S. Castro, Rioseco & Laskowski, 2012; S. Castro et al., 2012; Laskowski & Castro, 2012; Ramos, Castro & Laskowski, 2013; S. Castro & Laskowski, 2013; Laskowski, Castro & Ramos, 2013; Nagaraj & Farinato, 2014; S. Castro, Uribe, & Laskowski, 2014; Veki, 2013). The main conclusions from these studies on Cu-Mo ores in seawater at elevated pH were: a) flotation recovery of Cu sulfides is either unaffected or only marginally reduced, b) molybdenite recovery is adversely affected in seawater at pH values necessary for rejecting pyrite (i.e. pH > 10 to 10.8 depending upon particular system), and c) the precipitation of Mg2+ in seawater as Mg(OH)2 is responsible for the adverse effect on Mo flotation. In order to further investigate the individual effects of Mg2+ and Ca2+ on molybdenite depression in Cu-Mo ore flotation, Nagaraj & Farinato (2014) conducted flotation tests wherein individual metal ions were spiked into tap water during grinding of Cu-Mo ores. They showed the strong adverse effect of Mg2+ addition on Mo recovery and, to a lesser extent, on Cu recovery when pH > 9.5. Under similar conditions, Ca2+ had virtually no effect on either Cu or Mo sulfide flotation. Figure 1 below shows the previous results for Cu- Mo ores in tap water and the effect of addition of Ca2+ and Mg2+ ions. Note that in seawater the adverse effect of Mg2+ on Cu recovery was much smaller than that in tap water (Nagaraj & Farinato, 2014; Figure 4a and 4b and Table 4 therein)."

Jan 1, 2016

By Michele L. Kimble

A fast-flow reactor mass spectrometer has been utilized to investigate the reactions of gas-phase gold cluster anions with CO and oxygen. Addition of CO to Aun - produces species of the form Au(CO)m -, where m = 2-5. However, CO does not bind to Au2 - or Au3 -. With oxygen addition in the cluster source, gold oxide species with both molecular and atomized oxygen are produced. The addition of carbon monoxide to these preoxidized gold cluster anions reveals that select species with 1, 2, and 3 gold atoms participate in the oxidation reaction to produce CO2. Bimolecular rate constants for the reactions between these species and CO are also discussed.

Oct 1, 2003

By D Bruce, D Cox

The main access decline at Carrapateena mine was excavated through two different underground aquifers. In these areas of decline, pressurised water finds the path of least resistance through the rock and into the excavation. In some locations the ground water would upwell underneath the roadway resulting in rapid deterioration of the running surface. The deterioration of the road was so rapid that the two areas of decline required significant roadworks every single shift or it would become impassable by mine traffic. With a full fleet of underground trucks hauling to the surface, managing these sections of roadway was impractical and unproductive. The site team resolved this issue by installing Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC) to the affected sections of decline. RCC is a specialist concrete product that is delivered to the site near dry and is installed using a grader and roller similar to road base. This product can be installed quickly and be trafficked within hours of installation, making it ideal for mines with single access declines and unfavourable road conditions. RCC roadways were successfully installed at Carrapateena mine in conjunction with under-road drainage. These roadways have proved to be a very effective solution which requires minimal maintenance and are resistant to water ingress from the aquifer. This paper discusses the technical aspects of the RCC, as well as the practical implementation of the solution as a whole.

Mar 15, 2021

By Norman Weiss

The purpose of this paper is to relate progress in the engineering field called Minerals Beneficiation to undergraduate and graduate education in our colleges and universities. So mach has been written recently about the education of scientists and engineers that I've had to struggle against the temptation to repeat what has been often said before, particularly because man like Robert Mehl of Carnegie Tech, Antoine Gaudin of MIT, H. M. Davis of Penn State, and John Vanderwilt of Colorado School of Mines have recently written many quotable paragraphs on the subject. In the matter of progress, the rapidity of proliferation in the area of physical and chemical beneficiation is convincing proof that this is indeed a lively art, and having been a millman for 35 uninterrupted years I prefer to lean on personal observations to some extent, rather than on statistics and charts v culled from the journals. I propose in this paper to talk first about the progress we've made in our branch of the mining industry in the last 3 decades--particularly in the last few years--and try to show that future progress will depend upon the quality of education and capacity for research possessed by our colleges. The second part will deal with some of the problems the colleges encounter in trying to fulfill these responsibilities.

Jan 1, 1959

By J. M. Livingstone

"This paper covers some of the problems confronted by Canada's railways in moving bulk materials from their source to the dock-site. The ""cost center"" concept is presented, and hypothetical examples of its use given. Also discussed are systems design, the unit train and pipelines.INTRODUCTIONCANADA LIVES BY RER EXPORTS and the Port of Vancouver by the exports of the Mountain and Prairie Empire at her back. The most recent estimates of off-shore shipments of bulk from the Port of Vancouver rise to 35.8 million shipping tons in 1985 and deep-sea general cargo estimates, in and out, are estimated at 7.6 million shipping tons for the same year. This compares to 7.67 and 2.87 million shipping tons, respectively, in 1965."

Jan 1, 1968

By Charles Will Wright

ALTHOUGH the United States has long led all other countries in both the production and consumption of mineral products, the trend seems definitely toward an increasing dependence upon foreign sources of supply. This is not to take the position that we are either a have or a have-not nation. For years we shall continue to secure a large proportion of our needed minerals: from our own mines, but we must face the fact that this century has seen "a more thorough and intense development of the mineral resources of the United States and a greater depletion of its irreplaceable mineral reserves than has occurred in most other countries. An audit of our mineral production given in the attached charts discloses the extent of our deficiencies. Because of these facts, low-cost foreign sources offer a promising field for the investment of a portion of our mining capital and an opportunity to obtain for the United States a greater supply of strategic metals and minerals. How. ever, to reach this end, the industrialist investing in the foreign field must have the full co-operation and strong backing of the Federal Government and the involved Federal agencies.

Jan 1, 1947