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By A. Moergeli, Philip Sander, John Reilly

"SUMMARY While the basic elements of risk management, including probability, consequences, risk registers, mitigation measures, etc., are now well understood, the process to include correlation, dependencies and linkage of risks and risk scenarios is less well defined and not well understood. To perform accurate and complete risk analysis and risk management, it is necessary to include correlation, dependencies and linkage between risk events, as well as risks that may occur multiple times. In this way, owners and contractors can more accurately determine risk-based costs, risk impacts and risk mitigation strategies. This paper will outline methods to deal with correlation, dependencies and linkage and will consider risks that may occur multiple times. Practical result comparisons – with or without these elements – will be presented. INTRODUCTION We believe the reader is familiar with basic concepts of risk, risk management and mitigation and the use of probabilistic cost-risk processes versus deterministic ones (Reilly et al. 2015; Sander et al. 2015). The probabilistic approach, compared to the simpler and more common deterministic approach (unit prices times unit costs plus a contingency), offers more useful information with respect to the range of probable cost as well as cost “drivers” and better quantifies the effects of risks, opportunities and variability – which improves understanding, leading to a better potential for profit (or loss) for contractors and added value for owners. In this context, a valid and sufficient quantification of correlation, dependencies and linkage of risk events, plus the impact of risks that may occur multiple times, is essential. Components of Cost Estimates – Base Cost, Risks and Other Uncertainties The components of cost that need to be correctly addressed in an estimate include (Moergeli et al. 2015): •,Base costs – the costs that will result if “all goes according to plan” (Reilly 2004) •,Risk costs – the resulting costs of threat and opportunity events, if they should occur •,Escalation costs – costs resulting from normally expected inflation with variability •,Other uncertain costs – costs that result from other events, normally external to the project team’s control, which may include unanticipated events, politically related changes and “black swan” events (Talib 2007)"

Jan 1, 2016

By J. Duran

Mining at Newmont Mining?s Phoenix?s Mine is currently done by surface operation in the Fortitude and Bonanza pits at a combined rate of approximately 100 kt/d (110,000 stpd). A portion of the orebodies targeted by these pits was mined previously by underground mining methods, dating back to the mid-to late-1800s. Most of the underground workings (voids) are located in the west central area of the Bonanza pit. The surface operation requires excavation through voids, and there is a risk of pit floor subsidence that has to be addressed. This article presents a review of the risk mitigation measures that were implemented to reduce risks to people and equipment working in the area.

By Wayne W. Murdy

Since 1993, Newmont has been actively growing through the development of three major foreign mining operations with a fourth under construction. The first project, Yanacocha in Peru began operating in October 1993 at a time when political and business risk in that country was considered high. In 1995, Newmont began operating the Muruntau Joint Venture in Uzbekistan, the first of its kind in the CIS. In early 1996, Newmont started operating the Minahasa mine in Indonesia. Now, in early 1997, Newmont is undertaking the construction of a $1.9 billion project in Indonesia and is completing a feasibility study with our partner for the development of a gold operation in Mexico. All of these projects have been considered "risky" by most standards, and Newmont has been very successful in all of them through risk mitigation programs including utilizing strong and successful in-country partners, concentrating on developing a strong national workforce with minimal expatriate employees, utilizing World Bank, EBRD and IFC financing and building and maintaining strong ties with host governments. This paper describes in more detail, some of the risk mitigation programs that Newmont has used to successfully grow the company through development of major foreign mining operations.

Jan 1, 1997

By R. A. Halatchev

A risk model for assessment of the uncertainty in the forecasts of the planned profit is developed. It is based on the selling price of the metal recovered from the ore and the production per shift of the excavators. These two critical variables characterise the economic and technical aspects of the mining venture. Time-series methodology is used to describe the behaviour of the economic variable, which improves the adequacy of the modelling. A hypothetical open-pit gold mine is used to illustrate the application of the model. Results obtained show that the model is a good alternative to sensitivity analysis in taking account of the stochastic character of the price of the metal recovered from the excavated ore and the production per shift of the excavators used. The model can be extended by the inclusion of new variables that have a probabilistic nature

Dec 1, 1996

By P. Sander, M. Spiegl, J. Reilly, A. Van Droogenbroeck

Although the outdated idea of calculating risk as the deterministic product of its likelihood and impact is not entirely a thing of the past, a multitude of organizations have adopted the usage of probabilistic methods for risk analysis, as they better reflect the inherent uncertainty of cost and risk estimates with ranges. But are these advancements sufficient in a complex environment such as tunnelling projects, where inadequate modelling of cost and risk can result in estimate discrepancies that run into millions of dollars? This paper explores two advanced probabilistic modelling techniques for tunnelling projects. The first one demonstrates how the cost and schedule uncertainty related to changes in excavation and support classes can be modelled with correlated variables. The second example models the risk related to explosive ordnance clearance on construction sites using a probabilistic event tree.

Dec 1, 2022

By John Gamble

This paper summarizes the weight of epidemiological evidence to evaluate the hypothesis that asbestos exposure is causally associated with increased risk of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers as suggested by Selikoff in an early study of insulation workers. This review looks at populations that develop GI cancers, namely stomach, colorectal, colon and rectal. Guidelines for assessing causality are strength of association, biological gradient and consistency of the associations. Exposure?response (E?R) was evaluated using three methods to estimate exposure. Rate Ratios (RRs) for lung cancer and percent of mesothelioma are used as surrogate measures of asbestos exposure for all the cohorts of exposed workers. Quantitative or semi-quantitative estimates of cumulative exposure to asbestos were also used to assess E?R trends and were compared to E?R trends for lung cancer and mesothelioma in individual studies. Surrogate measures are important since there are few individual studies that have assessed E?R. None of the various methods to estimate asbestos exposure yielded consistent E?R trends and the strength of the associations were consistently weak or non-existent for the four types of GI cancers. The epidemiological evidence detracts from the hypothesis that occupational asbestos exposure increases the risk of stomach, colorectal, colon, and rectal cancer. Findings are briefly summarized below. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Asbestos; Colon cancer; Colorectal cancer; Gastrointestinal cancers; Ingestion; Lung cancer; Mesothelioma; Rectal cancer; Review; Stomach cancer

Jan 1, 2007

By A. Yazadni-Chamzini

Risk ranking of projects is one of the importance parts of the complicated risk management procedure. Recognizing the riskiest criteria enable the managers to plan for risk reduction. The first stage for meeting this aim is defining the risky parameters and then working to establish order between them. There are variety methods for risk ranking. The ELECTRE method is one of the best among the multi criteria decision making methods. In this paper with implementing the fuzzy ELECTRE, The risky criteria in the Tehran Subway project are being ranked. The result of this research presents damage and accident of machineries as well as the lack of labor and equipment safety is located in the first order. Collapse factors and local prices are in second rank. Also wrong design, pollution, urban facilities damageable are in third to fifth respectively. Delay and ? are located in the last positions.

Jan 1, 2012

By Mark Kennedy, Allan MacRae, Cameron Hams

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation's cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2011

By Mark Kennedy

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation?s cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2013

By M Barker, H Li

The total number of tailings accidents has reduced from over 50/decade in the 1960s-1980s to less than 30/decade in the 2000s to 2010s. However, the rate of significant tailings dam failures has not been reduced. The significant tailings dam failures the mining industry experienced in the recent history include: Merriespruit, South Africa, 1994; Los Frails, Spain, 1998; Kolontár, Hungry, 2010; Mount Polley, Canada, 2014; and Samarco, Brazil, 2015. The conventional Factor of Safety approach itself may not be enough to further reduce the rate of significant tailings failures due to its limitations such as uncertainty. For example, the same factor of safety could have a vast range of annual probability of failure for different tailings dams, and insufficient consideration of failure consequence. This paper presents a risk based approach for design with the objective being to minimise tailings dam failures, especially those significant tailings failures with high consequence and low probability. This approach includes risk based design and risk management using bowtie tools. In the risk based design, quantitative analysis will be used to estimate the annual probability of failure and the tolerable failure criteria is linked to the consequence category. Bowtie analyses will be used to understand hazards and risks and identify and select independent controls that are effective in preventing and mitigating catastrophic failures. In this paper, examples of risk based design and bowtie analyses are presented and discussed. CITATION:Li, H and Barker, M, 2018. Risk-based approach for minimising tailings dam failures, in Proceedings Mine Waste and Tailings Stewardship Conference 2018, pp 397–414 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 23, 2018

By P. A. Davies

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 11pp., 15 refs. Hazards such as vibration, dust emission and fragment projection can result in an area called the Danger Zone being set around a blasting site. Traditionally Danger Zones have been set solely on the basis of consequences (e.g. based on the maximum distance of rock projection or expected ground vibration plus a defined safety margin). Advances in risk assessment and its growing acceptance as a safety management tool have led to the setting of Danger Zones based on both consequences and frequency of occurrence. This allows distances to be optimised on the basis of acceptable risk levels rather than the potential consequences of infrequent events. The setting of a flyrock Danger Zone is used to demonstrate a risk-based approach compared with a traditional consequence approach

Aug 1, 1995

By Reinhard Gertl, Maximilian Weithaler, Harald Kammerer, Juan Pablo Muñoz, Juan-Carlos Rueda

The Guillermo Gaviria Echeverri tunnel and its access roads project in Antioquia, Colombia is a mega infrastructure project that includes a road network with the longest tunnel in Latin America and several short tunnels, the latter being the focus of this study. The design of the project required careful consideration of several special factors, such as the tunnels’ steep slopes of up to 5%, high fire load of 100 MW, bidirectional operation, and short lengths that make it difficult to place ventilation equipment. The combination of all these parameters cause a challenging design problem for the ventilation systems and smoke control of the short tunnels. To address this challenge, a risk assessment study was conducted to support the design of a new and innovative ventilation strategy that deviates from relevant guidelines and standards, like the Austrian RVS [1][5][6] or the German EABT [8] in order to provide a customized solution for this particular project. This strategy resulted a cost-effective solution, that allowed a reduction in the number of required jet fans and at the same time reaches or reduces the risk level compared to traditional ventilation strategies.

Jun 13, 2023

By Andreas Bienz

The safety of persons from accidental explosions and fires during manufacture, storage, transport etc. of explosives, pyrotechnics, propellants, firework and ammunition is most commonly assessed according to prescriptive rule-based approach: Safety is given when all requirements which are listed in numerous regulations and directives (such as e.g. safety distances, limited quantities, protective installations etc.) are complied with. Such a deterministic prescriptive rule-based approach is quite easy to apply but has got disadvantages, however: The actual state of safety in a specific case is not explicitly and quantitatively expressed, and it is not distinguished between the endangered individuals and the whole group. As a result, the effects of the safety measures cannot be measured. This is why uneconomical and in the worst case useless safety precautions cannot be avoided. In addition, waivers are difficult to negotiate, meaningful and sound arguments for pro and con being lacking.

Jan 1, 2007

By Franco Oboni, Iain G. Bruce

The design of tailings containment structures relies on well-understood engineering methods being applied consistently. Unfortunately, not all facilities are designed or managed to the same level of competency. To standardize procedures, the Mining Association of Canada (MAC, 1998) prepared a “Guide to Tailings Management.” It recommended review of designs and an assessment of the risks associated with tailings impoundments be implemented during all phases of amine life. This paper describes how the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) process can be used to define risks associated with the design, construction and operation of a tailings management facility. And it discusses how, once the risk tolerability curves (RTC) are defined for a project, they can assist the risk management (RM) process.

Jan 1, 2002

By J Harris, P Kirsch, D Cliff, M Spinks, S Goater, D Sprott

Fires are a common and recurrent unwanted event in the operation of open pit mines. In most cases, the causes of events such as fires are already æknownÆ but are either overlooked or not fully addressed in planning. Ongoing rapid growth of the global mining industry is creating a scarcity of skilled personnel, and high turnover within operations. This contributes to loss of corporate memory in risk management activities. RISKGATE« is an online risk management system designed to support and assist in the analysis of priority unwanted events in Australian coal mining operations. Funded by the Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP), RISKGATE« is a knowledge management program that delivers best-practice controls for unwanted events and assists operations in staying abreast of emergent risks and threats. RISKGATE« content has been primarily developed from an association of industry experts, and enriched with input from additional academic and technological resources. In mining operations, RISKGATE« provides a continuum of knowledge and best practice for risk identification, assessment and management. RISKGATE« will assist companies in improving safety performance, operational efficiency, operating practice and training. Here we present the RISKGATE« prototype as developed in 2011 for Fires, with a case study presented for the initiating event Fires on Mobile Plant.CITATION:Harris, J, Sprott, D, Spinks, M, Cliff, D, Goater, S and Kirsch, P, 2012. RISKGATE« - A case study in application to fires on mobile plant, in Proceedings Eighth Open Pit OperatorsÆ Conference , pp 49-54 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 18, 2012

The Aredor mine employs conventional dragline methods to exploit alluvial diamond deposits. Production began in 1984 with the policy of mining in the terrraces during the wet season and in the river flats during the dry season. Early production failed to meet predicted grades. A major geological programme to re-evaluate existing reserves was undertaken. This resulted in considerable increases in reserves in the river flats. Many of the reserve blocks included flats on both banks of the Baoule river. Methods of access into the river flats, normally flooded in the wet season, were developed to allow mining throughout the year. River diversions have been the main method used to provide access into the reserve blocks and, most importantly, to remove the risk of flooding. Aredor has carried out six main river diversions with a total length of 12 km. The diversions allowed production planning to be made on the basis of the economic evaluation of the reserve blocks, without undue regard to natural ground conditions or to seasonal factors. The Manning equation was used for the calculation of channel dimensions and gave satisfactory results. The practical aspects of the diversion preparations and flooding prevention are described

Sep 1, 1991

By B Moynihan

The Roa Opencast Coal Mine is situated at the north-eastern end of the Greymouth Coalfield. It lies on an eastern flank of the Paparoa Range, 16 km north-east of the town of Greymouth on the West Coast of the South Island. Road access is via a sealed road from Blackball to Roa, then by a 5.3 km all weather, gravel road, which gains 340 m in elevation from 190 m RL at Roa to a maximum height of 530 m near the opencast.

Jan 1, 1993

Discussion of the paper of Frederick Laist, presented at the Butte meeting, August, 1913, and printed in Bulletin No. 79, July, 1913, pp. 1147 to 1162. J. C. DICK, Salt Lake City, Utah :-I would like to ask Mr. Laist why a 10 per cent. salt solution was used. MR. LAIST :-The reason for using salt in the solution is to get .the sulphur. The solution of dilute sulphuric acid has no solvent action on the sulphur even after roasting, and the addition of the salt is made primarily to dissolve the sulphur chlorides. MR. DICK:-I would like to ask also if you made any experiments as to grinding fine your calcines, rather than leaving the coarse material. MR. LAIST :-We have not made any experiments along those lines except in the laboratory, but the objections which we have to grinding are that the difficulties of roasting are very much greater when roasting finely ground material than when roasting coarse material, and the difficulties of leaching are somewhat increased; the percolating system is simpler and easier to manipulate, particularly when acid solutions are used, so that we prefer from our experience not to grind. STUART CROASDALE,* Denver, Colo. (communication to -the Secretary +) :-In order to meet the conditions involved in his ore-treatment problem, Mr. Laist has developed a very interesting and apparently successful metallurgical hybrid which he calls the oxychloridizing roast. The lower floors of the MacDougall furnaces are made to accomplish what used to be done on the " cooling floor" in the old days of salt roasting and " hypo " or brine leaching of silver ores.

Jan 11, 1913

This paper is intended to continue the subject in the light of recent work, from where it was left at the conclusion of the discussion on the excellent paper by the late Mr. Noel Haszard. The position then obtaining is briefly summarised below:-The points which received general agreement at that time were:-'(1) That the gold occurs, probably in an elemental form, in a state of very fine division in the pyrite.(2) That the aim in roasting of Kalgoorlie flotation concentrates should be to obtain the maximum porosity possible. The gold tellurides were amenable to treatment with either a' solution of high lime and cyanide strength combined with fine grinding, or bybromocyanidation without re-grinding.(3) That a low roasting temperature is essential during the elimination of the first atom of sulphur, if the final calcine is to give a good extraction by cyanidation.(4) Even with the best temperature conditions of roasting then determined, and after a period of cyanidation of the calcines until no further extraction was obtainable, the lowest calcine residues obtainable were equivalent to approximately 1·8 dwts. per long ton, based on an original concentrate of pure pyrite.There was some division of opinion at the time as to whether the temperature of the later stages of roasting was significant, and also as to the reason why the initial roasting temperatures had so marked an effect.

Jan 1, 1939

R. C. BUCKETT (Lake View and Star Limited) : At the outset I should like to add my congratulations to those already extended to Mr..Norwood on his excellent paper, which has given us all an inspiration to strive further to improve our plant recoveries. In some respects this paper has left us so little to discuss without considerable time spent on. further research work. At all points one is met by a baffling array of facts which leave one feeling hesitant to speak.The careful and methodical way in which Mr. Norwood went along step by step until all channels of research presenting themselves were tested to his own satisfaction leaves me with but a few comments to make. Particularly striking to me is the explanation of the residual gold values in calcines by recrystallization of haematite and here is a line to be attacked by future studies. This will be mentioned again later.Particularizing on the paper, the first point that struck me was the method of change of pyrite through to the final haematite. I have never been able to satisfy myself that a sample taken from various positions along a roaster when cooled, as described on p. 397, represented a fair sample of the conditions at that point, but I must confess that I have not found a substitute that did satisfy me.However, the following figures are illuminating... But to fill dry a receptacle of known volume with calcines, as described by Mr. Norwood, gives the following apparentspecific gravities:

Jan 1, 1940