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By W Patton

Investment decisions in the mineral resources sector are made on the basis of an assessment of the economic potential for a mineral deposit. Given the supporting information for the location, scale, and quantity of the commodity of interest, miners and investors aim to make risk-informed decisions when considering further investment. The objective of resource classification is the synthesis of various types and quantities of geologic information used in resource model construction to assign confidence categories to the estimated mineral resources, which can then be used to support informed economic decisions. In this paper a risk-based classification scheme for iron ore mineral resources using conditional simulations is presented. The method involves categorisation of each block according to a confidence level, considering expected recoveries from a kriging model over mining production volumes. The realisations of the simulated model are used to assign risk-based confidence categories to zones of the ore deposit. One motivation for this work is to assess the sensitivity of the scheme to geologic uncertainties. Specifically, that which uncertainty in the layout of mineralising alterations and weathering overprints influence variabilities of associated rock properties and the likelihood of obtaining expected ore recoveries. It is shown these risks have material implications for a project’s economic potential. How the scheme can be extended to the grade control context and the value subsequent grade control activities is also quantified.

May 24, 2023

By Steve Kral

The list of environmental issues facing industry in general, and the mining industry in particular, has placed greater emphasis on the concept of risk assessment and risk management. In informal terms, risk can be defined as the chance of injury, loss or damage. More formally, it is defined as the probability of an occurrence and its consequences. In simple terms, risk assessment involves three questions: What can go wrong? How probable is it to go wrong? If it goes wrong, what are the consequences? Experts on the subject of risk assess¬ment and management met in St. Louis, MO in October 1992 to discuss the extensive and innovative technology that has been developed in this arena. Each agreed that a consistent framework can be used to approach risk assessment/ management considerations in siting and design alternatives, as well as when considering financial aspects of mine development. And the environmental planning process for mines, as well as planning for operation through closures, will rely more heavily on risk assessment and management techniques. Risk assessment is a tool to assist engineers, scientists and managers make better, defensible operational decisions. A realistic and probabilistic risk analysis, coupled with a sound financial model, can combine a large set of alternatives and criteria to arrive at a defensible decision. Organizers of this regional SME conference believe that mining professionals should become fully conversant with risk assessment techniques and approaches because this arena provides opportunities to develop more rational decision-making techniques. Current health risk assessments rely heavily on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approaches. Several speakers and papers show how this approach has been applied to a variety of topics. Two major advantages come forward when applying risk assessment techniques to environmental clean-up options for contaminated sites. They are the selection of practical options and cost-effective alternatives. A probabilistic risk assessment provides results that can be directly related to clean-up costs. It has been shown that small reductions in risk are obtained for large increases in cost after a certain threshold value is reached. A preferred, practical clean-up alternative that provides permanent solutions can be selected based on a probabilistic assessment. Here are summaries of some of the papers presented at the meeting.

Jan 1, 1993

By J L. Merritt

Effective minesite water management requires that this issue be treated as a risk management exercise. The management process is generally far from simple and by necessity must involve a range of personnel covering a siteÆs commercial, operational and environmental interests and responsibilities. The challenge to be collectively faced by these stakeholders is to strike the correct balance between risk and cost. On the other hand, the challenge to be faced by technical services support personnel is to provide stakeholders with information in a format that they can use with confidence. This paper presents the application of continuous operational simulation (OPSIM) modelling techniques to establish appropriate risk profiles for minesite operations. It is necessary that the format of these risk profiles be generic and equally applicable for defining the risk of occurrence for a relatively comprehensive range of activities û eg from of a non-compliant discharge, to the risk of failure to meet production targets. What is more, the profiles need to be quantitatively based and capable of reflecting change in system response to varied operational or management strategies. The techniques presented in this paper are based around a key assumption that long-term records of the climate contain within them sets of sequences that are representative of what can be expected in the future û that is, the droughts, floods, cyclones, good years and bad, long or short, and everything in between. Therefore, if these historical records are run through an OPSIM model for a particular site, then the simulated operational characteristics can be taken as being representative of what can be expected in the future, in the long-term. This lends itself to statistical analysis and translation into the required risk based format. Water Solutions Pty Ltd have been working with Capricorn Coal Management to develop a relatively comprehensive OPSIM model of their operations at German Creek Mine, Central Queensland. Outcomes from the modelling have been used in recent times to provide mine management with risk-based guidelines for both securing and containing mine water inventories. One of the more interesting tasks has been to establish risk based inventory levels that, if reached, would trigger the immediate implementation of a contract for the desalination and re-use of mine water, at predefined rates. Also, lead-time warning of the occurrence of a possible trigger is of importance to operational and commercial planning. To service this requirement the OPSIM model is regularly used to produce lead-time estimates to defined levels of confidence. Case studies of these, and other, applications of the OPSIM model at German Creek Mine are presented in this paper and serve to demonstrate an effective methodology for practical risked based water management.

Jan 1, 2003

By David J. Hatem, K. Bhattarai

The increasing popularity of alternative methods in delivery of underground infrastructure projects has given rise to innovative and collaborative contracting strategies to allocate and manage the unique risks associated with the work. This paper presents approaches and recent examples of how risk has been dealt with using various alternative delivery methods, including Progressive Design Build (PDB) and Construction Manager/General Contractor (CM/GC). Based on the experience gained from these examples, recommendations for an innovative and collaborative risk baselining approach using contingency sharing are presented that should advance the overall goals of equitable risk sharing and compensation.

Jun 13, 2023

By Murray Pezim

In the good old days of the folklore of the mining industry, grizzled prospectors obtained a few loose dollars from friends and neighbours then wandered off to eventually return with the great discovery which became the core of the new corporate empires. Alternatively, merchant banking barons obtained exclusive rights to just about anything of future value over hugh nation-size territories. Some of this probably still goes on, likely with about the same ineffectiveness and waste of effort and money as in the past. CURRENT CONCERNS IN MINING In today's difficult climate in the mining industry, for that matter in all industry, effectiveness is the vital consideration. Cost effectiveness -- more bang for the buck -- is especially important in such an area of high risk as mineral exploration. And there are other factors to consider. Since minerals are depleting resources, the mining inddustry is constantly confronted with the reality that those resources extracted today must be immediately replaced if a resource enterprise is to continue. And if growth is to be achieved, even more resources must be found to support future expansion. The current and immediately foreseeable climate internationally for the mining industry creates a special need and urgency for aggressive and successful exploration, certainly in Canada, if not also in the United States. Depressed world markets and prices have turned yesterday's economic reserves into today's waste, hopefully to be converted into economic ore again in some distant time. One way of replenishing reserves and maintaining a viable mining industry is to find and develop mines which are economic under short-term depressed price and market conditions. This probably means higher grades. A new copper discovery with the right combination of characteristics to be an attractive investment even at today's pices for copper would still merit development into production. Exploration is the only way to find such mines for the difficult short-term conditions. Another important consideration is that normally many years stretch from the first thought of conducting exploration to production -- in those rare instances where an economic discovery is made. If discoveries are not made today, then there will not be any projects to develop when business conditions are more attrative. This industry and the vast number of skilled professionals who are part of mining, are faced with two key problems that underlie the need for a junior exploration segment. One consideration is how to maintain exploration during those years, indeed eras, of recession and depression. We are in such a time now. Throughout the world, major companies have sharply cut back, if not eliminated completely, exploration expenditures other than what is vitally necessary and easily and inexpensively done at the known and producing deposits. And related to that consideration, even more important today than during happier times, is how to finance such necessary ongoing exploration if major companies and governments back away because of financial stringency. CANADIAN SUCCESS In Canada, such problems are being tackled with a success which is capturing worldwide attention. The ability of mineral explorers to obtain willing, eager, high-risk capital is achieving even more outstanding results than in the past. These results are reflected in the widespread continuing exploration ativity in Canada which even spreads into the United States, with some outstanding discovery successes. The most notable exploration success from junior mining activity is the discovery of the Hemlo gold camp in northwestern Ontario, a source of gold which promises to rank with the South

Jan 1, 1985

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

By H. Simonsen

Risk assessment consists of a search for the answers to: ?What can happen? ?How likely it is that it can happen? ?What are the consequences if it does happen? Perhaps the most important aim of risk analysis is to predict the likelihood that a planned profit will be achieved over a given period of time. A typical risk model employed for this purpose includes a stochastic connection between the dependent variable of an expression that describes a process and independent variables represented as random quantities. The output will be a probabilistic distribution. The uncertainties in a planned mining operation include: ?Commodity market characteristics, particularly price ?Ore reserves and mineralogical composition ?Mining method ?Process performance ?Capital and operating costs ?Schedule duration ?Economic environment effects. The processes employed in the probabilistic estimation of a project?s outcome include both Monte Carlo simulations and simulations where variable correlation is considered important. The risk model, once developed and tested, provides a framework for a rational approach to risk analysis and the testing of alternatives.

Jan 1, 1999

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open-pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau while the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-mak-ing range is significantly reduced and the process for select-ing the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable and defensible. The technique outlined in this paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Jun 1, 2024

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau whilst the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-making range is significantly reduced, and the process for selecting the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable, and defensible. This paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Feb 21, 2024

By W. Abdellah

The purpose of this paper is to establish a qualitative method to estimate the risk level (e.g. rating and ranking) resulting from mining activity. Risk is the product of two factors: probability of failure and cost of consequences. A resultant assessment scale matrix is then used to assign a risk index value which is directly proportional to the potential for excavation instability. A case study, the No. 1 Shear East orebody at Vale?s Garson Mine in Sudbury, Ontario will be examined. A three-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference model (FLAC 3D) is presented for a mine development intersection situated 1.5 km below ground surface. The developed assessment scale matrix is used to estimate risk index for intersection (2981) located on 5000 level. The results are presented and categorized with respect to risk-index value, probability of instability, cost of consequence, and mining stage.

Jan 1, 2014

What Discounted Cash Flow Analysis can do for you: ?Provide an accurate financial analysis of a project for the first 25 to 30 years of operations ?Identify cash flow requirements ?Identify relative sensitivity of the project to the various input parameters ?Place a value on the resource in place after 30 years of operations ?Correct for errors in input parameters

May 1, 2010

By T Ireland, S Eratne, W Newns, P Spies

The approach to risk management during the procurement of major projects often has a significant outcome on the ultimate delivery of a project. The NZ$1.4 B Waterview Connection project is the largest and most complex project yet undertaken by the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) and the procurement process for an alliance contract was refined to provide compliance with the International Tunnel Insurance Group (ITIG) Code of Practice for Risk Management of Tunnel Works (TCoP). The principle of shared risk within an alliance incentivises a common understanding of project risks prior to finalising the alliance agreement and therefore enables superior risk management through design, construction and beyond. Risk management practices need to be instigated well in advance of commercial phases, so that commercial competition does not lead to a significant elevation of project risk. In particular the practice of gaining commercial advantage by taking on a potentially unmanageable level of risk is one of the outcomes to be avoided by the TCoP.During the procurement phase the NZTA placed high value on design and construction mitigation measures proposed in order to address ground risks, as is appropriate for a major tunnel project. In order to achieve alignment on the level of geotechnical risks an Alliance Geotechnical Baseline Report (AGBR) process was developed.This paper describes the measures taken during the procurement process to achieve certainty with respect to outcomes and minimise project risks whilst also achieving value for money. Refinements to the procurement process to ensure compliance with the TCoP prepared by the International Tunnel Insurance Group (ITIG) are described along with the AGBR process applied as part of a suite of measures to achieve a successful procurement outcome.CITATION:Ireland, T, Spies, P, Eratne, S and Newns, W, 2014. Risk management and use of a geotechnical baseline report for a competitive alliance procurement?process, in Proceedings 15th Australasian Tunnelling Conference 2014 , pp 553–562 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 17, 2014

By R J. Everett

The mining industry is beginning to adopt quality systems based on the requirements of International Standards for quality assurance, such as the ISO 9000 series. Indications from similar industries are that considerable benefits are to be had from their adoption. This paper describes the use of the International Standard ISO 9001 for quality assurance within BUKA Minerals Limited. This provided guidance for the development of a clear statement providing agreement on the processes to be followed and the outputs required when dealing with outside service providers. Discussion focuses on the interaction with BUKAÆs consultants and contractors during the specification stage, resulting from the application of quality assurance techniques. Risk analysis was used to identify and manage the risks associated with the companyÆs contract for geotechnical and mine design services and the tender for a mine development program of work during the feasibility stage of the project. Setting acceptance controls for the deliverables from such contracts is traditionally fraught with difficulty. BUKA used Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for exposing underlying risks that were not effectively being countered. The briefs were reviewed and additional controls were developed to manage the risk. These controls have provided clearer instructions to the consultants and contractors, indicated audit points for the company and defined the deliverables. There exists within the company, and among its outside service providers, a clearer understanding of what is to be achieved and how it will be measured. The process has imparted considerable confidence to both parties on how the work will proceed and what outputs are to be provided. Some discussion is provided on how quality principles are being applied throughout industry and commerce, generally, and how they may apply to the mining industry. The paper argues that, far from being an appendix to the tendering process, Risk Management should be a mandatory step integrated into the definitions of the work.

Jan 1, 1998

By A Querzoli, B Williams

In late 2014 the Flinders Power Management Team was executing business improvement plans to ensure continued electricity generation until 2028 and beyond. Six months later, in June 2015, the Board announced the closure of the Flinders Power South Australian business, including the Leigh Creek Coal Mine, the Northern and Playford Power Stations located at Port Augusta and the 250km railway line. The announcement was preceded by a brief period of internal planning. A date was soon set for ceasing coal mining operations, being November 2015. The mine is unique in many ways. Located approximately 550km north of Adelaide the site has over 100 years of history and was formerly operated by the South Australian Government. Privatisation in 2000 saw the mine continue operation under Perpetual Leases from the South Australian Government. The leases included exemptions from multiple sections of the Mining Act 1971, obliging primary regulation under the Mines and Works Inspection Act 1920. The coal, being a low rank sub-bituminous brown coal, is prone to self-heating and spontaneous combustion. The mine and company town Leigh Creek were the economic and cultural heartbeat of the community. Facilities at the mine were shared by the community and vice versa. While many mines across Australia and the world enter periods of care and maintenance, few have been actively closed to the point of relinquishment (Bennett and Lacy, 2016). A swift decision to close, followed by a short mining operations shutdown period, presented significant technical and regulatory challenges for both the mine operator and for Regulators. The subsequent joint risk mapping process employed by Flinders Power and South Australian Mining Regulators was a unique real-world example of collaborative mine closure planning and execution. Lessons learnt are valuable for all mines, production facilities and for Regulators, even for those who may wrongly assume that closure is many years away. CITATION:Williams, B and Querzoli, A, 2018. Risk management for minesite closure planning and execution – start now! Lessons from the closure of the Leigh Creek Coalfield, South Australia, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2018, pp 68–72 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 25, 2018

By T Atkinson, A Cobb, R AJIington

Risk management is concerned with the whole spectrum of financial, geological, engineering, legal, governmental, social and occasionally ethnic issues, concerned with mining projects. The inherent risks in mining operations are well publicised, but new issues and hazards arrive on the scene and lake precedence, but the older risks still remain, while insurance cover may not he ‘full cover’ in the future. It has long been recognised that quantitative approaches to risk analysis can play a major role, but although these methods are capable of considerable theoretical precision, the lack of sound risk input data and experienced personnel limits the usefulness of theoretical analysis. It can, however, greatly assist in comparing cases, in identifying areas of risk and help in the investment decision process. Its major contribution to a mining project is that it imposes an investigative discipline that also assists in improving the quantitative approach to risk analysis and hence risk management. Risk analysis and risk management also requires sound common sense and major inputs from experienced geologists, mining, mechanical, electrical and mineral processing engineers. The Engineering Council, in 1992, issued a ten point code of professional practice entitled ‘Engineers and Risk Issues’ (The Engineering Council. 1992), covering our professional responsibilities, the law, our conduct, the need for a systematic approach to risk issues, the use of professional judgement, communications, risk management, evaluation of risk, our professional development in this field and the encouragement of public awareness of risk issues. This is a specific area of training perhaps long neglected by our industry and academic institutions (Atkinson. 1983).

Jan 5, 1996

By Andy Thompson, Frank Perrone

"As part of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s $10.5bn East Side Access Project in New York, 3,200 m of tunnel had to be constructed in rock, mix face and soft ground conditions beneath one of the largest passenger railroad junctions in North America, handling over 780 trains per day. The use of risk based decision making tools was essential in developing the bespoke contract framework that was adopted as well as making informed decisions once excavation commenced. This paper will outline the risk management process adopted, discuss the risks and mitigation strategies adopted and comment on the impacts of this approach on the as built Project cost and schedule. In particular, the paper will outline the unique approach used to establish the baseline against which the Contractors performance would be measured as the selection of a Slurry TBM to excavate the tunnels was considered to compromise the effective use of a Geotechnical Baseline Report. BACKGROUND AND CHALLENGES Contract CQ031, Queens bored Tunnels and Structures was awarded in September 2009 to a joint venture of Granite Northeast/Traylor Brothers/Frontier Kemper (GTF JV) for $717.6m following a negotiated procurement process. A robust approach was taken with regard to the management and payment for risks associated with the construction of these tunnels. Risk assessments were carried out during the design phase and a risk register was developed prior to procurement. During the procurement phase close attention was paid to ensuring that the allocation and pricing of known risks, together with mechanisms for managing future risks were clearly defined between the MTA and GTF JV.In comparison to the excavation work in Manhattan, which was performed in competent hard Manhattan schist, the tunnels in Queens were excavated predominantly through soft ground with a high water table and complex environmental conditions. Not only did this require the use of pressurized face TBM technology, a first in New York, but also a re-evaluation of the contractual mechanisms used to manage the hard rock excavation contracts for their appropriateness to the soft ground tunnel work."

Jan 1, 2016

By Emily Rose

The concept of risk management is applied to multiple aspects of the mining lifecycle including safety, mine design, business plan—anything that affects getting the ore to the mill for production. However, risk management is not a topic that can readily be taught in universities. Many situations require knowledge gained from experience to know how this impacts current and future operations. Recent graduates, who must develop and apply decisions based on geotechnical monitoring, likely have not developed “operational experience” and may not be aware of options and typical applications. Thorough resources that explain different monitoring systems, and when and how to implement them, are available for geotechnical professionals. Accessibility to this information can often cause information overload, leaving one unsure of where to start, without knowing where to start. This paper is intended to serve as a high-level overview of development practices, levels of risk, and risk tolerance for entry-level geotechnical and mining professionals who do not come from a geotechnical background. Summarized detail on typical monitoring practices, types of instrumentation, and how to communicate what the data indicates to key stakeholders are provided.

Feb 22, 2026

By Iain G. Bruce

The need to improve supply reliability while improving our environmental record during the past half decade of low metal prices has required the mining industry to prioritise expenditures. Quantitative Risk Assessments using third party reviewers and specialist risk management teams have assisted in identifying hazards that can both disrupt supply and impact the receiving environment. Graphical displays using risk ellipses can simplify the presentation of the results in a Probability-Consequence (PC) graph. Development of risk acceptability envelopes using readily available financial data superimposed onto the same PC space assists management to prioritise their risks and focus on risk reduction measures. Development of this system and examples of the successful implementation of the system from several recent projects are described.

May 1, 2003

The mining industry has indeed gone global. International minerals producers are spending big money to move into countries that were off limits a few years ago. Due mostly to political reasons, these countries' huge mineral deposits - worth billions of dollars - were locked up and mining companies could only sit on the side and wonder "what if." Now much of the world is going the free market route. Once closed countries and developing nations are rewriting their mining and tax laws hoping to attract foreign investment to develop their natural resources. And big businesses - mining companies included - are lining up to get their share. But with new opportunities come new risks. While emerging nations are slowly accepting the free market concept and the privatization that goes along with it, many remain plagued with political instability and violence. Even developed nations carry their unique risks. Some of these include inadequate or contradictory legal and regulatory infrastructures, political patronage and outright corruption. So companies hoping to expand into new regions of the world must do more than examine the market. They must study the political stability and structure of a country, as well as its tax and environmental laws. And they must guarantee the safety of their employees. Control Risks Group is an international management consulting company that assists companies preparing to move into a new country. It employs about 225 people in 14 offices throughout the world. Control Risks personnel include lawyers, bankers and former law enforcement officers and intelligence people. The company held a one-day seminar in Washington, DC to update some of its clients on the state of affairs in various regions of the world. The seminar also covered extortion, corruption and product diversion. About 175 people attended the seminar. Speakers included Control Risks' operators, analysts and investigators. Here is a summary of what some of those people had to say.

Jan 1, 1998

By Moreno Pescara, Luca Soldo, Piergiorgio Grasso

"Risk management in tunneling is more important today than it was a few years ago, considering increasing demands for safety and environmental and socio-economic sustainability, which are now required by citizens, owners, lenders, and insurers. Moreover, our current risk management philosophy should not only address risk avoidance and mitigation, but should also be used as a means of value creation, benefiting the overall project. Given the strategic implications of risk management, the authors intend to present, in this paper, a comprehensive overview of references and experiences from current practice—e.g., what is missing or weak, as well as possible or necessary developments that can have a key role in implementing effective risk management, particularly for a project’s design and construction phases. Therefore, as God has set some things in broad daylight; as he has given us some certain knowledge, though limited to a few things so, in the greatest part of our concernments, he has afforded us only the twilight, as I may so say, of probability (John Locke) PREFACE Many large-scale engineering and construction projects suffer millions of dollars in cost overruns, delays in design and construction, and operability troubles once finally completed (Edward W. Merrow, 2011). The undesired effects of these problems can become disastrous for large-scale megaprojects (those that typically cost US$1 billion or more), particularly considering that these are increasingly used as the preferred delivery model for infrastructure (Bent Flyvbjerg, 2014), often in public-private partnerships (PPPs). McKinsey G.I. (2015) has estimated that bridges and tunnels average 35% in cost overruns, and roads 20%. Some of the values published by Flyvbjerg (ibidem, 2014) for projects with relevant underground elements are the highest, with cost overruns from 60% to 300%. The analysis of 32 other case histories (from 1994 to 2010) given by Hartmut, R. (2011, IMIA Annual Conference, Amsterdam) indicates an average increase of costs around $55 million, with a 20-month average delay."

Jan 1, 2016