Search Documents

By R Godard, J Gantumur, F Prince, C Pascoe

Resolution Copper Mining LLC (RCML) is one of the largest undeveloped high-grade porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits in the world, with an orebody at depths of approximately 2000 m beneath post-mineralisation cover. With a vision to develop a large-scale, low-cost operating mine, the project is designed as a micropanel cave with an advanced undercut.In September 2014, RCML began a study focusing on identifying and selecting the best production cases to eventually reach full production (120 kt/d). To achieve this, a methodology was developed that allows the fast evaluation of a large number of production schedules.Dassault Systèmes GEOVIA was commissioned to enhance the Footprint Finder program for batch scheduling panel cave production. The tonnage and grade schedules produced by Footprint Finder were compared to schedules developed using personal computing block caving (PCBC™). The inputs to Footprint Finder were then adjusted to achieve a reasonable correlation with the PCBC™ schedules.The enhanced Footprint Finder program was used to batch-process nearly 54 000 schedules using 20 elevations, 17 shutoff grades, four heights of draw, two different copper grades (modelled and upside), two layout refinements within the existing footprint and a variety of production ramp-up rates to 120 kt/d. The study team developed processes to analyse large amounts of data, to assist in selecting a matrix of the best schedules for detailed assessment using PCBC™. Three hundred PCBC™ schedules were developed.The detailed trade-offs between the scenarios is currently underway with promising results. This paper outlines the methodology used in evaluating the numerous alternatives.CITATION:Gantumur, J, Godard, R, Prince, F and Pascoe, C, 2016. Development and evaluation processes of cave production schedules for the Resolution copper project, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 59–64 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By R Long

The founder of social psychology is sometimes identified as Kurt Lewin. In a 1947 article, Kurt Lewin coined the term ‘group dynamics’. He described this notion as the way that groups and individuals act and react to changing circumstances. Lewin theorised that when a group is established it becomes a unified system with unique dynamics that cannot be understood by evaluating members individually. The discipline of social psychology really emerged out of World War II and tackled questions associated with human judgement and decision-making by the Nazis. For a comprehensive look at the development of social psychology look at Abelson, Frey and Gregg (2004).Social psychology is concerned with the way social arrangements affect human judgement and decision-making. What the author has done is apply the knowledge of this new discipline to an understanding of risk, safety and leadership. This paper will explain some of the developments in social psychology, such as the discovery of the bystander effect, Groupthink, bounded rationality, heuristics, risk homeostasis and the Milgram effect.The social psychology of risk tackles the way decisions are made about risk in their social context. Unless organisations understand that decision-making is socially conditioned, they are unlikely to be able to tackle the complexities of culture change or the development of risk maturity.The paper will offer a new understanding of why people do what they do, how risk makes sense and why a ‘dumb down’ approach to safety is dangerous. A model will also be presented that shows the pathway to risk maturity.CITATION:Long, R, 2016. The social psychology of risk, safety and leadership maturity, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 31–42 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By J Rose, D O’Toole, D Grant

Orepasses are a critical element in the transport of ore from the stope drawpoint to the surface ore stockpile, making them an integral part of an underground mine’s ore-handling system. Well-designed and operated orepasses improve productivity and lower operating costs over a long period of time.The Olympic Dam mine, as part of a 6 Mt/a expansion project in 1997, constructed a large network of orepasses feeding a rail haulage system to facilitate the movement of approximately 8 Mt/a to the Clark crusher and hoisting shaft. The orepass network comprises 14 orepasses and currently includes 59 individual tip points. The orepass network has been in operation for over 15 years and in excess of 110 Mt of ore has been moved through the system.Olympic Dam’s management of mine infrastructure includes a program of assessing the condition of the Clark system orepasses. A comprehensive program was initiated in 2011 and consisted of systemically performing volumetric surveys to determine the integrity of the various sections of the orepasses. The current geometrical state of the orepasses provides essential information for comparison of geotechnical and operational parameters and a baseline for understanding the key causes of orepass deterioration to assist in the planning of both usage and potential replacement options.The collection of geotechnical and operating data allowed the review of the current condition, potential longevity and associated risks with the various orepass sections. Initial studies have also reviewed options for rehabilitation and/or replacement.CITATION:Rose, J, Grant, D and O’Toole, D, 2016. Orepass monitoring and management at Olympic Dam Mine, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 609–616 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By A J. Weston

Block or panel caving technology is far removed from that of the top slicing and block caving of the late nineteenth or early twentieth centuries. The rapid mechanisation and expansion of these methods in the late twentieth century was as much a result of the change of the technology of the unit operations of development, ground support, drilling and blasting and transport as it was of the advances in geotechnical understanding and practice. The small footprint gravity and scraper block caving mines with boundary weakening, rail transport and shaft hoisting of the early to mid-twentieth century have been replaced by massive high lift panel caves using preconditioning of the ore, large load-haul-dump units, adjacent crushers and conveyors to surface. The technology changes in the unit operations are described and the drivers for these changes examined.CITATION:Weston, A J, 2016. The evolution of block caving technology, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 265–274 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By C Rizzardi, M Callahan, J Mahon

Henderson Operation’s underground molybdenum mine has been in production since 1976. Since that historic date, more than one billion pounds of moly has been produced, and over 120 Mt of ore extracted from three different levels and many different panels. The safe and successful operation of Henderson has been, and will continue to be, dependent on utilising an increasingly sophisticated fleet of equipment, advanced designs, innovative mining techniques, best practices in maintenance processes, improvements in crushing and conveying systems, and most importantly, the training and mentoring of the underground staff. These ‘professional mining technicians’ have been essential in the safe and efficient operation and maintenance of the underground mine and convey systems, and will drive the continuous improvements needed to keep Henderson competitive in the growing global market.CITATION:Callahan, M, Mahon, J and Rizzardi, C, 2016. Development of the professional mining technician – Henderson’s underground mine continuous improvement program, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 161–166 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By C Tickell

Achieving occupational health and environmental noise objectives is a major consideration in the planning or operational phase of resource development and industrial projects to meet the needs of the workforce and community and comply with legislative requirements. For material handling systems, ventilation plants, mobile equipment, process plants and fixed infrastructure, noise emissions need to be considered at the design phase. The preferred approach is to provide noise emission technical specifications, but in many cases this is not stipulated. An occupational noise requirement, such as ‘not to exceed 85 dBA at 1 m’, is often provided, but this will not achieve the required occupational or environmental noise objectives and may cause overly stringent requirements when they may not be needed. It should be noted that when developing the technical specification, measuring compliance needs to be taken into account as, in some cases, measuring may be very difficult or even not possible.This paper will discuss the requirements for providing an effective noise specification that ensures the environmental and occupational noise objectives are able to be achieved and that, once installed, compliance can be measured. It discusses planning such as when to set the objective, correlating the appropriate objectives for the environmental and occupational noise requirements, allowing for measurement tolerance, providing a suitable criteria and data format for the suppliers to respond to and methodology to measure compliance. Different phases of a project require different approaches to planning for noise management and these will be discussed in the paper. Examples from 35 years of industry experience will be included.CITATION:Tickell, C, 2016. Preparing effective specifications for occupational health and environmental noise objectives in mining project design and delivery, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 781–788 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By P A. Grossman, J H. Rubinstein, M Brazil, D Whittle

Many ore reserves are harvested by a combination of open pit and underground mining methods. In these cases, there is often material that could be mined by either method, and a choice has to be made. The area containing this material is referred to as the transition zone. Deciding where to finish the open pit and start the underground mine is referred to as the transition problem and it has received some attention in the literature since the 1980s.In this paper, we provide a review of existing approaches to the transition problem encompassing: graph theory-based optimisation employing an opportunity cost approach, heuristics and integer programming. We also present a novel opportunity cost approach, that takes into account a crown pillar, and show how the new approach can be best applied through the unconventional application of an existing mine optimisation tool.CITATION:Whittle, D, Brazil, M, Grossman, P A, Rubinstein, J H and Thomas, D A, 2016. Determining the open pit to underground transition – a new method, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 731–742 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By A D. Campbell, G R. Power

The increasing availability of marker data in sublevel caving operations is changing the way draw can be managed to achieve positive recovery outcomes in these mines. This paper describes how marker data has been incorporated into flow simulations to help calibrate full mine ore recovery simulations for the forecasting and optimisation of recovery.Some flow modelling techniques do not use marker data, relying instead on the outcomes of physical and numerical experiments to guide assumptions about an idealised recovery flow shape. Other mines have access to marker trial data, but find it difficult to specifically link this marker trial information to their recovery models. This can make it difficult to create a link between the marker trial information and recovery forecasting and limits the potential value of the marker trials at the mine.In the simulations shown here, the marker rings are fully incorporated into the flow model, and can be tracked in the model. The model is compared against the real underground marker recovery information to give the user an indication of how accurately the flow settings in the model are reflecting the conditions in the experimental marker rings. An example of use of this system at an operational mine is included.CITATION:Power, G R and Campbell, A D, 2016. Modelling of real-time marker data to improve operational recovery in sublevel caving mines, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 105–110 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By E Widzyk-Capehart, C Hölck Teuber, S Steffen, V Rivero, O Fredes, E Sanchez, I Pedemonte, N Gonzalez

This paper summarises the research, development and initial application of a sensing platform that has the potential to monitor subsurface deformations, pore pressure and other variables simultaneously to gain a better understanding of rock mass behaviour. The platform is based on Networked Smart Markers (NSMs) devices, which, with their ability for wireless communication between individual sensors and the possibility of real-time data acquisition and processing, will assist in the development of predictive tools to better assess rock mass behaviour.A good opportunity to implement this technology is in the specific application of transitioning from an open pit mine to an underground caving operation. One of the key elements to maintaining the mining business during such a transition is having a good understanding of the unique geotechnical conditions of mutual influence created during the open pit to underground interaction. The knowledge acquisition will require the implementation of a robust platform for geotechnical monitoring, which could be enhanced by incorporating the NSMs. The integration of sensors within the NSMs would enable the collection of additional data about rock mass behaviour (ie caving propagation and crown pillar fracturing), which could be used to improve the management of mining operations and, specifically, allow the development of reliable predictive tools based on the data collected.CITATION:Widzyk-Capehart, E, Hölck Teuber, C, Fredes, O, Rivero, V, Sanchez, E, Pedemonte, I, Gonzalez, N and Steffen, S, 2016. Understanding rock mass behaviour through the development of an integrated sensing platform, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 275–284 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By S Rogers, D Stead, E Eberhardt

The last decade has seen a major increase in use of the discrete fracture network (DFN) approach applied to cave mining problems, often integrated within more complex geomechanical simulations. Because the value of the DFN model directly depends on the quality and quantity of available field data, there is the need to apply dedicated mapping procedures to collect sufficient structural data at the required engineering scale. This paper attempts to address several key questions about DFN modelling; for example: are current methods for fracture mapping suitable for DFN modelling? What are the critical parameters that we need to measure and what do we need to change in the current practice? Particularly at the earlier stages of a cave project, engineers may have to account for the lack of appropriate data, which manifests itself in the form of increased uncertainty and the difficulty to characterise variability in an objective manner using a limited set of data. DFN models could in principle be generated using limited data by assuming statistical distributions for the sampled parameters; however, engineers would need to be aware of the implications that such limited knowledge (and increased uncertainty) would have on stability analysis, fragmentation analysis and mine design. When used correctly, a DFN approach offers practitioners the opportunity to:maximise the use of fracture data collected from mapping of rock exposuresgenerate more realistic synthetic rock mass modelsprovide estimates of natural fragmentation that also account for rock mass variability.CITATION:Elmo, D, Eberhardt, E, Stead, D and Rogers, S, 2016. Discrete fracture network modelling – importance of accounting for data uncertainty and variability, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 845–852 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By G Chitombo, A Perryman, A D. Campbell, J White, B Hollis

This paper describes the development and implementation of an optimisation tool developed as part of the Mass Mining Technology (MMT) Project. The tool, known as the SLC Schedule Optimiser, is capable of optimising the schedule of development and production activity for a sublevel cave, given a fixed draw strategy, for the life of the mine.This paper starts by describing the development and production scheduling problem for a sublevel cave, the geotechnical constraint that a schedule of activities must adhere to, and outlines the pre-existing manual planning procedures used to produce schedules.Following this, the paper then outlines the optimisation tool developed, describes the changes to the planning process it has enabled and finally quantifies the improvement to operations this tool has brought using Glencore’s Ernest Henry Mining Operations as a case study.CITATION:White, J, Perryman, A, Campbell, A D, Hollis, B and Chitombo, G, 2016. Life-of-mine development and production scheduling optimisation for sublevel cave operations, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 133–138 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By A Kurniawan, A Sjadat and M Akhasyah

PT Freeport Indonesia’s Deep Ore Zone (DOZ) is a block cave mining operation that has been in production for 15 years. DOZ is located approximately 900 m below surface and has an average production rate of more than 5000 t/d. The footprint of the extraction level will ultimately be 900 m long and average more than 200 m wide. The undercut level is located 20 m above the extraction level.While developing Panel 1K on the northern portion of the extraction level, a major geotechnical problem was encountered when there was a change in lithology and an associated fault intersection. A large collapse of the hanging wall of the extraction level drifts occurred in the area of the fault intersection between February and March 2011. This was followed by a collapse of one of the undercut level drifts directly above the extraction level in May 2011.It was suggested that the best approach to mitigate risk during rehabilitation was to systematically open up the failed area under the protection of a steel set support system. To achieve this, approximately 60 t of grout was injected from the undercut level to fill the voids created when the rock mass between the two levels failed. A ground penetrating radar system was used to survey the condition of the rock mass between the two levels before and after the injection of grout. After the grout injection phase was completed to a satisfactory level of confidence, rehabilitation activities started on the extraction level by taking out the now consolidated material from inside the drift in 2 m advances from under steel sets initially constructed in secured ground.Controlled blasting was the key aspect to the success of the initiative to open up just enough of the drift to systematically support the rock mass before the next set was installed. The systematic support consisted of in-cycle shotcrete sprayed over mesh pinned to the exposed rock, as effectively as possible, with splitsets before spiling the next advance’s protection canopy with rebar. Once secure, a combination of steel set and pumped concrete was installed as the final support. This final support provided a safe platform to repeat the process until the failed zone was safely traversed.CITATION:Kurniawan, A, Sjadat, A and Akhasyah, M, 2016. Rehabilitation of the collapsed panel 1K north in the Deep Ore Zone block cave mine, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 763–768 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By A Gustafson, D Johansson, K Jonsson

The underground mining process, from in situ characteristics of the unmined rock mass to the final mill product with fully liberated minerals, consists of a chain of unit operations. Some of them influence fragmentation while fragmentation impacts others. From a production point of view, fragmentation is a key parameter for the proper functioning of many unit operations and affects total production; it influences the ability to load, haul and crush the rock later in the process. Fragmentation varies because of rock mass strength, the presence of joints, the chosen explosive, specific charge (kg/m3) and quality of drill holes. The efficiency and result of unit operations such as drilling, blasting, loading and crushing depend on the rock properties, which vary throughout a mine. Generally speaking, operations are not well adapted to the actual rock properties, leading to a non-optimised flow in production. This paper presents the initial part of a project that will build knowledge on the impact of fragmentation on each step of the production chain in an underground mine. It identifies the key parameters of fragmentation, which influence the overall energy consumption and productivity in a mining operation through interviews, mine visits and a literature review. In the subsequent stages of the project, a number of field tests in the case study mine will address important segments of the production process where fragmentation is a major obstacle to improvements. Optimising the entire process, rather than isolated unit operations, will lead to increased productivity, decreased amount of interruptions and lower energy consumption.CITATION:Gustafson, A, Jonsson, K, Johansson, D and Schunnesson, H, 2016. From face to surface – a fragmentation study, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 555–562 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By E Ah Mu and C R Lilley, A D. Campbell

Cave propagation is a complex process due to interacting variables such as mine geometry, rock mass heterogeneity and complex structural networks and stress fields. The Ernest Henry sublevel cave (SLC) is directly below an open pit, which provided an opportunity to observe and measure rock mass failure as the cave initiated and propagated through the pit wall. This paper describes interaction between the open pit and SLC as well as rock mass failure mechanisms observed from the start of the SLC to surface breakthrough.Cave propagation and slope failure mechanisms were found to be governed by intermediate structures, while the cave shape was largely controlled by cave-scale faults. The open pit, production-level geometry and production draw strategy were also important factors for cave and subsidence growth. Cave propagation was episodic and asymmetric in shape due to the orientation and relative position of geological structures, combined with the effects of the increasing SLC geometry and drawdown from the underlying production levels. The precursors and failure mechanism of a 2.5 Mt wall collapse are also reviewed in detail.Cave growth was simulated using a 3D, non-linear, discontinuum finite element model coupled with Newtonian Cellular Automata. Model results are compared to field observations and monitoring data to determine the accuracy of forecasts and compared models versus actual rock mass response during cave propagation.CITATION:Campbell, A D, Ah Mu, E and Lilley, C R, 2016. Cave propagation and open pit interaction at the Ernest Henry Mine, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 311–318 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By T. R. Ellis

"In August 2013, the Appraisal Practices Board of the U.S. Appraisal Foundation issued its “APB Valuation Advisory #4 - Identifying Comparable Properties,” which contains analysis and examples that may suggest a broader meaning of the term “comparable properties” than is current convention in real property value appraisal in the United States and internationally. The advisory is directed at the appraisal of real property of all kinds, including interests in mineral properties, as indicated by the inclusion of two mineral property appraisal papers in the appendix that lists suggestions for further reading.This paper firstly reviews as background the historical meaning of a comparable property, with its perceived constraints, against real-world examples of transacted mineral properties that are adjusted to subject properties to provide market value indications. The advisory’s findings are then examined and evaluated as to whether they may influence and benefit the work of mineral property appraisers, particularly in situations where their sales comparison analyses may be challenged. The conclusion is that the combination of constraints that the advisory’s findings specify for use of the term “comparable” will for mineral properties be met infrequently or rarely. As a result, mineral property appraisers are advised to avoid using the terms comparable or “comp” when referring to transactions of mineral properties that they analyze to derive data for appraising the value of their subject mineral properties. IntroductionA mineral property appraiser rarely finds a sale of a mineral property that meets the literal meaning of the term “comparable sale,” by being directly comparable to the subject property of the appraisal in all factors of significance in the determination of the value of the property interest being appraised. Real estate appraisers have long used a more liberal interpretation of the meaning of comparable sale and its commonly used abbreviation, “comp.” Real estate appraisers compare sales to their subject property on the basis of price per hectare or acre of land and price per square meter or square foot of building floor area. Adjustments totaling to within the range of +30 to -30 percent from the sale property to the subject, before factoring in the property area, have generally been viewed as appropriate for the sale to be considered a comparable sale."

May 1, 2016

By N. A. Karl, D. R. Wilburn

"This summary of international mineral exploration activities for the year 2015 draws upon information from industry sources, published literature, SNL Metals & Mining (SNL) (Charlottesville, VA) database and specialists in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Minerals Information Center. The summary provides data on exploration budgets by region and mineral commodity, identifies significant mineral discoveries and areas of mineral exploration, discusses government programs affecting the mineral exploration industry, and presents analyses of exploration activities performed by the mineral industry.Three types of information are reported and analyzed in this annual review of international exploration: budgetary statistics expressed in U.S. dollars provided by SNL; regional and site-specific exploration activities that took place in 2015 as compiled by the USGS; and regional events that affected exploration activities including economic, social and political conditions, which were derived from published sources and discussions with USGS and industry specialists. Commodity and regional compilations are presented in this summary. Because multiple sources were used to develop commodity and regional compilations, statistics may vary depending on the source and type of data that are being reported.The SNL data summarize planned company budgets for worldwide exploration activities in 2015 for 24 nonfuel mineral commodities and metal alloys and are based on company surveys. Surveys focused on precious metals (gold, platinum-group metals and silver), base metals, (cobalt, copper, lead, molybdenum, nickel, tin and zinc), bulk commodities (bauxite, chromite, iron ore, manganese, phosphate and potash), and other commodities (diamond, graphite, heavy-mineral sands, lithium, niobium, rareearth elements (REE), tantalum, tungsten and uranium).USGS data compilations and analyses are based on information provided by USGS mineral commodity and country specialists, as well as industry contacts and published trade journals. The USGS data summarize exploration site data collected for more than 80 minerals and materials, with a focus on base metals, diamond and precious metals. The USGS analyzed available information to assess the level of exploration activity in 2015 and to report trends in mineral exploration activity for the period 2005 through 2015. These analyses identify where mineral exploration is occurring by commodity and region and the intensity of activity that is taking place in each region for selected mineral commodities, and determines those factors that most affect changes in exploration activity."

May 1, 2016

By John Quiñones de la Cruz

Para tener éxito en el planeamiento de minado, es necesario establecer los requerimientos técnicos y metodólogicos para la automatización, la recolección, manejo y el análisis de datos geológicos e ingeniería. En ese sentido, el presente trabajo señala el uso de un sistema computarizado de modelamiento geológico y planificado tridimensional como herramienta para la planificación eficaz del proceso de minado. La secuencia de minado con 5D Planner, permite planificar la mina para operaciones de explotación subterránea. así como mejorar el planeamiento en etapas previas a la estimación del Valor Actual Neto Económico (VANE) del proyecto.

Apr 1, 2016

By A. Moergeli, Philip Sander, John J. Reilly

"Estimating and managing the costs of complex infrastructure projects – in the planning/design and construction phases, for both owners and contractors – has been a challenge for decades. The more complex and technologically advanced the project, the greater the uncertainty, including potential risks that are important to owners and contractors, such as:• Cost risks to owners – meeting budget and schedule, maintaining public credibility.• Cost risks to contractors – profit, consequences of loss, impacts to reputation/future work.This concern has been addressed in various ways by the underground construction industry for some time (Reilly, 2001). In particular, while significant advances have been made in cost estimating for the planning and design phases (Reilly et al., 2004), that are important to agencies and political decision-makers, it is not apparent that these advances have been widely adopted for construction cost estimates. The reasons for this may relate to lowbid considerations – any method that tends to increase the contractor’s cost estimate, by including risk or likely costs, could lead to an erosion of the contractor’s competitive position – if others are not similarly required to include such costs.Different cost estimating methods produce different levels of information. Specifically, there is a large difference in the character and depth of information if a deterministic (quantities times price plus a contingency) and risk-based cost methods are used. It is this difference in character and depth of information that is the reason that risk-based cost estimating has potential value for owners and contractors. Figure 1 presents hypothetical cost results from deterministic and risk-based methods and illustrates some of these differences.In Fig. 1, the results for deterministic and risk-based cost estimates are given related to the potential profit or loss for a typical project. As is evident in this example, there is significant potential for costs to be realized that are higher than the proposal/bid value estimated using a deterministic approach, with a 15 percent probability of a loss. There is a 30 percent probability that the project will have a reduced profit. There is a 55 percent probability that the project will return a good profit. Using a risk-based approach, it is possible to better recognize this potential outcome in the bid phase and, as a consequence, develop a strategy to:"

Apr 1, 2016

"From April 22 to 28, the eyes of the tunneling and underground construction world will be on San Francisco, CA, as the world’s most influential underground construction industry leaders gather at the Moscone Center for the 2016 World Tunnel Congress.Recognized as the most important international annual meeting for the industry, the 2016 version comes to the United States for the first time in 20 years and will be hosted by the Underground Construction Association of SME (UCA of SME). The conference will be held in lieu of the UCA’s biennial North American Tunneling Conference and will bring the strengths and resources of the UCA of SME and the International Tunnelling and Underground Space Association (ITA). The result will be a conference with unmatched technical programming and a showcase of more than 200 exhibiting companies.A program committee led by Randy Essex of Mott MacDonald, Lonnie Jacobs of Frontier Kemper Constructors, Michael Mooney, of the Colorado School of Mines, Priscilla Nelson, of the Colorado School of Mines and Amanda Elioff of Parsons Brinkerhoff formed the program committee and worked for more than two years to build the program. The result is four technical sessions with five tracks in each session and 185 oral presentations.“One challenge was the sheer size of the group that would be assembled, perhaps 2,500 attendees or more, and the large number of abstracts we were likely to receive,” said Essex. “ We investigated extending the conference a fourth day, but that was not workable with the Moscone Center. We settled on having five concurrent technical tracks – something that has not been attempted in past NAT or RETC conferences to my knowledge. The next step was to develop suggested session titles that would span the breadth of subjects that would interest conference attendees as well as serve the conference theme.”"

Apr 1, 2016

By William Gleason

"Despite the difficult economic climate for the mining industry, more than 6,300 people joined SME for its 2016 Annual Conference & Expo in Phoenix, AZ, Feb. 21-24.Nearly every commodity has been bruised and battered during the past year, leading to one of the more difficult cycles for the industry in the past decade. Coal has taken some of the hardest hits and other commodities, such as copper and iron ore, have felt the sting of a slower growth in China and an oversupply on the market.The difficult conditions could not be ignored, but they did not deter SME from offering a forum for the industry to share knowledge, network with peers and learn about the best products and practices while visiting the sold-out exhibit hall (844 booths and 627 vendors) or while attending any of the 121 technical sessions that were offered.The current state of the industry was one of the overriding themes of the conference and during the challenging times there are often cutbacks as operations look to become leaner and more efficient, however, there is one area that cannot be cut – health and safety.The conference kicked off with a fascinating presentation from Colonel Mike Mullane, a former NASA astronaut who, in 1978, was selected as a Mission Specialist Astronaut in the first group of space shuttle astronauts. He completed three space missions and logged 356 hours in space aboard the shuttles Discovery and Atlantis before retiring from NASA and the U.S. Air Force in 1990.In his speech to a packed audience, he warned of the dangers of cutting corners to get the job done more quickly by guarding against the “normalization of deviance.”Normalization of deviance is a long-term phenomenon in which individuals or teams repeatedly accept a lower standard of performance until that lower standard becomes the norm. Usually, the acceptance of the lower standard occurs because the individual or team is under pressure (budget, schedule, etc.) and perceives it will be too difficult to adhere to the original higher standard. Their intention may be to revert back to the higher standard when this period of pressure passes. However, by getting away with the deviation from the higher standard, it is likely they will do the same thing when the same stressful circumstances arise again. Over time, the individual/team fails to see their actions as deviant."

Apr 1, 2016