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By I. Iwasaki

There are many reasons why the US mineral and primary metals industry is in its present state. Undoubtedly, a flood of imported goods in all sectors is playing a major role in the plight of our raw materials industry. Domestic industry is becoming increasingly aware of the importance of its international competitiveness. And we are beginning to wonder what is happening to our technological edge. A number of factors affect the international competitiveness. Engineers cannot do much about some of these factors - labor costs, tax policy, government relations, interest rates, dollar strength, and labor-management relations. Something can be done about technology, however. Some say technology is so easily transferable today. But I would like to believe that we have the ability to apply it better than others. Not too many years ago, "made in Japan" meant cheap and shoddy products. Today, Japan has completely changed its image. The US is beginning to feel the threat from Japan's low-cost, defect-free products with dependable delivery. With worldwide recession and the strength of the dollar, we were shocked at the sudden weakness that developed in America's industries, not only in the international market, but domestically as well. What went wrong and what can we do about it? Senior executives from 300 large American manufacturing companies were surveyed. These executives believe US companies must: • invest in more efficient plants and equipment (27%); • invest in more research and development (23%); • improve the quality of service to customers (23%); and • adopt more aggressive marketing tactics and strategies (14%). Are we not doing enough research? The US has nearly four times as many people engaged in research and spends four times as much for research as Japan (Fig. 1). There is little doubt about the excellence of the US performance in basic science as indicated by the number of Nobel prize recipients. Japan has produced only four winners since World War II. Look at technology trade of five countries (Fig. 2). Again, US performance has been remarkable. An interesting observation here, is that the United Kingdom, another country with economic woes, is also in the black, West Germany and Japan, both with trade surpluses, are net technology importers. It is apparent that the US' performance in the commercialization of new knowledge is much more in question. Japan had $50 billion of trade surpluses with the US last year, which led to some friction between Washington, DC and Tokyo. Comparing the technology trade of Japan and the US in more detail, Japan imports disproportionately large amounts of technology from the US and Europe. This data is rather old, 1978, but the general trend is not too different even today. It is generally believed that scientific research leads to innovative technology, then to economic payoff. But, after seeing the current technological challenge by Japan, we are forced to change this traditional view. Investment in research may eventually lead to economic payoff, but not directly. There is a middle ground between new knowledge and its commercialization. This is an area where the Japanese have been successful. Until the 1970s, many western companies licensed patents to Japan for quick profits. But, in recent years, these companies have become more discrete about the terms of technological transfer. As a result, a number of scientists and engineers are expressing deep concern over the future of technological developments in Japan. A survey was conducted on 450 research managers of private industries in Japan on how they viewed the level of breakthroughtype original research in Japan as

Jan 6, 1986

By John D. Morgan

Introduction The US Bureau of Mines' (USBM) world reserve/consumption ratios (Table 1) indicate that, if the world is relatively peaceful in the next two decades, there should be ample world supplies of minerals to permit rising standards of living for increasing world population. But it must be remembered that most mineral reserve estimates are conservative and that normal mining practice is to develop a ton of ore reserve for every ton mined. It should be noted that "reserve," as used in this paper follows the definition given in US Geological Survey (USGS) Circular 831, 1980; "that part of the reserve base which could be economically extracted or produced at the time of the determination." In addition to accurately determining the geologic parameters of mineral deposits, a judgment as to whether that deposit is a "reserve" per se involves consideration of many other factors. These factors were recognized nearly a century ago by a well-known mining engineer and later President, Herbert Hoover. In "Principles of Mining," 1909, Hoover wrote: "Unfortunately for the mining engineer, not only has he to weigh the amount of risk inherent in calculations involved in the mine itself, but also that due to fluctuations in the value of metals. If the ore is shipped to custom works, he has to contemplate also variations in freights and smelting charges ...In a free market, the law of supply and demand governs the values of metals as it does that of all other commodities. So far, except for tariff walls and smelting rings, there is a free market in the metals under discussion. The demand for metals varies with the unequal fluctuations of the industrial tides. The sea of commercial activity is subject to heavy storms, and the mine valuer is compelled to serve as weather prophet on this ocean of trouble. High prices, which are the result of industrial booms, bring about overproduction, and the collapse of these begets a shrinkage of demand, wherein consequently the tide of price turns back." Current supplies and use There have been ample supplies of most mineral materials to permit several-fold increases of world production of common major mineral based minerals (steel, aluminum, copper, and cement) over the past three decades. Motor vehicle production is a major consumer of mineral materials. However, in the last decade, down-sizing to facilitate improved fuel efficiency and reduce harmful emissions has reduced the weight of the average US-made automobile 15%, to 1.5 t (3200 lbs). Also in the US, there are 92 million dwelling units, or on average, fewer than three persons per dwelling unit. Construction is another major consumer of materials in the industrialized developed countries. It will also be a major consumer of materials worldwide as less developed nations seek to improve their infrastructures by adding roads, bridges, railroads, airfields, ports, and housing. Fortunately, a large number of traditional common materials, many of mineral origin and also many of agricultural origin, are readily available for construction. Traditional construction materials such as steel, aluminum, copper, and cement, are being replaced in many applications by engineered plastic and ceramic

Jan 4, 1986

By J. C. Motz

During the past five years, Rexnord has developed, tested and introduced the Nordberg Omnicone Crusher to the industry. When the Symons brothers invented the cone crusher over 60 years ago, they employed the principle wherein the length of the crushing stroke was related to the free fall of material by gravity. This permitted the material being crushed to fall vertically in the crushing chamber; and in effect, caused the particles to be crushed in a series of steps or stages as the particles got smaller due to the crushing action. This also helps to reduce the rate of wear of the liners since the sliding motion of the particles is minimized.

Jan 1, 1986

By P. K. Sims

One-day field trip via U.S. Highway 6 and Colorado Highways 119 and 279 from Golden, Colorado to Idaho Springs. This field trip provides an opportunity to observe aspects of the Laramide ore deposits in the Central City and Idaho Springs mining districts and the Proterozoic basement rocks, which host the ore deposits.

Jan 1, 1986

Possible consequences of continuing internal political unrest and the imposition of foreign sanctions raise concerns about the traditional reliability of the Republic of South Africa as a major world supplier of important minerals. A recent Bureau of Mines' technical report (Open File Report 76-86) examined the impacts of temporary peacetime disruption scenarios for six key materials and mitigating options. Because of South Africa's dominant producer position for these minerals (except for cobalt), expansion of primary production capacity outside of South Africa is not a short term mitigative option. However, prospects of a longer term disruption would likely spur investment in capacity expansion in alternative Market Economy Country supply sources. This report identifies the resources, production costs, and burdens that would be placed on alternative MEC producers of chromium, cobalt, gold, manganese, and platinum-group minerals if South Africa's production were subject to a long term; disruption. When long term supplies from South African deposits are discounted, more than a few years reserves were found only for cobalt and manganese. Even for these two minerals, higher sustained prices would be required to increase manganese production capacity and to support means of cobalt transportation not through South Africa.

Jan 1, 1986

By Filmer AO

In contrast to the '50s and '60s, the period of the '80s and '90s seems likely to have low growth in demand but much greater levels of technological change. In such a climate there will be pressure on costs, productivity will continue to rise and competitiveness will be closely associated with maintenance of the most effective technology. The penalties for inappropriate investments, whether short sighted or mistakenly based on a particular view of the future, will be greatly enhanced. Accordingly, there will be a need for significantly improved anticipation of technical change and thus for better planning. Study of the funding and direction of the world's R&D effort can provide a useful input to the planning processes within industries and individual firms. Such a study also suggests some insights into the characteristics of those countries which have achieved substantial growth and high standards of living over the past two decades. These characteristics may offer significant reminders for our own development. The particular implications for the Australian minerals industry include the need for direction that is sensitive to changing market requirements and customer practice. This is not simply "more of the same." In particular it appears essential for both basic and applied R&D to provide a sound basis for the purchase and ongoing development of the new technology required to achieve international Competitiveness.

Jan 1, 1986

By Keith L. Harris

Buoyed primarily by growing consumer spending, the economy rebounded from a weak second quarter. According to preliminary estimates released by the Department of Commerce, real gross national product (GNP) grew $2 1.9 billion during the third quarter, producing a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 2.4%, compared with a rate of 0.6% in the second quarter of 1986 and 4.1% for the third quarter of 1985 (table 1). Third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and Government purchases of goods and services rose $42 billion and $7 billion, respectively, but those gains were partially offset by the continuing decline of gross private domestic investment, off $16 billion, and the growing trade deficit, up $11 billion. Three quarters of the growth in consumer spending occurred in the durable goods sector as consumers responded to discounted financing offered by automobile manufacturers attempting to lower inventories of 1986 vehicles, Increased purchases of other durable goods, such as furniture and home furnishings, also contributed to the strength of the durable goods sector. The success of the automobile inventory reduction program as well as weak factory output led to a $20 billion decline in inventory growth. Investment for housing and producers' durable equipment expanded, however, and mitigated some of the impact of slower inventory depending on gross private domestic investment, Capital spending for nonresidential structures declined for the third consecutive quarter. The declining capital spending and the growing trade deficit continued to be significant and interrelated problems for the economy. Real capital spending for new plants and equipment during 1986 is expected to decline 2.5% after rising 8.7% in 1985 and 15.8% in 1984 (table 2). It is likely that capital expenditures bottomed out in the second quarter and that they will expand in the third and fourth quarters. The first-half decline was partially attributed to uncertainty arising from the pending tax- overhaul bill. Furthermore, there is little impetus for corporations to invest in new capacity since factories are operating at less than 80% of capacity (table 3) largely because of the continuing growth of imports. The growth rate of the trade deficit dropped sharply in the third quarter to less than half that of the previous quarter. Low oil prices, declining auto- mobile and steel imports, and increased exports of agricultural goods contributed to this decline. The continued low growth of the economy caused the Federal Reserve System to reduce the discount rate for the fourth time this year (in late August), drop ping it to 5,596, the lowest level in about 9 years. Inflation, as measured by the fixed- weighted GNP price Index, continues to remain low, but rose from the revised second-quarter level of 1.7% to 2.596, mostly because of rising food costs.

Jan 1, 1986

By J. W. Griffith

"The mines in the Bancroft area of southeastern Ontario, a few kilometres west of the town of Bancroft, are in Faraday and Cardiff Townships. Three companies, known as Canadian Dyno Mines Limited, Macassa Gold Mines Limited (Bicroft Division) and Madawaska Mines Limited (formerly Faraday Uranium Mines Limited), with plants capable of handling a total of 4,()()() tons (3,629 tonnes) of ore a day, were at one time in production. A fourth company, Greyhawk Uranium Mines Limited, operated a small mine whose ore was shipped for custom treatment to the nearby Faraday mill. Canadian Dyno Mines Limited ceased operations in June 1960. In June 1963 the Bicroft Mine was closed and a year later Faraday closed because of contract completion. But in 1975, Faraday (now called Madawaska) was re-opened but closed again in 1982. During 1959, the peak year, these four mines produced an estimated 1,100 tons (998 tonnes) of uranium precipitates, which represented nearly 7 per cent of Canada's output for that year(Fig. 1).The deposits occur in pegmatitic granite dykes in a region of high-grade metamorphic and metasomatic rocks. Uranium distribution is usually controlled by the distribution of mafic minerals, particularly hematite and magnetite, and by late fractures. The best visual indicators for uranium concentration are hematite staining in the pegmatite, followed by the amount of mafic inclusions or crystals. The Bancroft area orebodies are the only known deposits of the general pegmatitic class in Canada that contained economic deposits of uranium. The principal radioactive minerals are uraninite and uranothorite. By comparison with many other pegmatitic occurrences, some of the ore bodies are unusually large, persistent in depth and relatively rich in uranium minerals. At the end of 1981, total ore reserves were estimated at 1,500,00 short tons (1,360, 000 tonnes) averaging 0.11 % U3O8."

Jan 1, 1986

It is a pleasure to submit to the National Critical Materials Council (Council) some of my thoughts concerning the important tasks which lie before you. It long has been my belief that America's economic health and national security may depend to a substantial degree on whether we have available to us an adequate supply of critical and strategic materials at reasonable cost. To the extent the Council can contribute to the identification and implementation of wise public policies which facilitate the achievement of that goal, we and our children should be grateful. Even before assuming office, President Reagan warned of the danger of undue dependence on imported materials essential to the Nation's defense and economic well-being. After his election, he appointed a transition task force on strategic and critical materials, and he later directed the Cabinet Council on Natural Resources and Environment to prepare .a National Materials and Minerals Program Plan and Report to Congress, which he forwarded to the Congress in April 1982. In 1984, my predecessor, Secretary Clark, established the National Strategic Materials and Minerals Program Advisory Committee, popularly known as the "Mott Committee" because of its distinguished chairman, retired Admiral William C. Mott.

Jan 1, 1986

By F. D. Huntley

Raw materials used by the Flat Glass Industry are known in the Industrial Minerals geology sector as Specialty Products. These pro- ducts must meet specification limits usually not the same for all glass manufacturers. Evolving new glass compositions will require mineral concentrates of consistent purity being produced within economic limits that will assure market viability of the resulting glass product. The amount of success the Flat Glass Industry will achieve by developing and maintaining domestic production centers will be determined by many economic factors which affect the costs of doing business. Technological developments by mineral processors must continue in order to achieve more efficient production of high quality glassmaking raw materials.

Jan 1, 1986

By W. C. Baver

Even before the energy crisis developed in the early '70's, considerable research world-wide was being directed towards the development of schemes to both reduce the energy requirements and to reduce air pollution emissions associated with the manufacture of glass. In many cases the sought-for solutions would benefit both objectives. If, for example, the glass batch could be consolidated into such compact forms as briquettes or pellets, they could be preheated in a moving-bed heat exchanger with the high-temperature exhaust gases from the glass furnace. Lower furnace temperatures would thus be possible with a corresponding reduction in heat losses and total fuel consumption. Moreover, the lower temperatures would also reduce the amount of nitrogen oxides generated in the furnace and emitted to the atmosphere. Many tests on consolidated glass batch have been run in many countries. In some cases, extended tests on production furnaces have also been included in the programs. For various reasons, however, none of these has proved to be economically attractive. The current, but temporary lull in the rapidly rising cost of energy which has been with us in recent years, has reduced the push for research for energy saving means for melting glass. A few of the current programs will be discussed. Since raw material requirements, primarily physical in nature, are affected by some of these schemes, these will also be considered.

Jan 1, 1986

By A. A. Sobek

Controlled release systems delivering the required concentration of an effective bactericide over an extended time period have been developed by The BFGoodrich Company's ProMac® Systems group. The ProMac system is site-specific and includes a four-step approach to controlling acid mine drainage (AMD): (1) Diagnosing the problem, (2) Prescribing the treatment, (3) Supervising the application of controlled release bactericides, and (4) Honitoring the success of applied treatment. The success of the ProMac system is evidenced by improved water quality, healthy vegetation, a reduction in levels of acidophilic thiobacillus, and a corresponding increase in population of beneficial microorganisms.

Jan 1, 1986

By Werner T. Meyer

Technical modification of traditional zinc- and lead-based products is moving the metals into diversification is particularly apparent in two areas. The evolution of diverse types of heavy-duty vehicles that employ lead acid batteries. and The development of Galfan™ -- a zinc / 5% aluminum/mischmetal coating alloy designed to provided zinc-coated anti-corrosion protection in applications that are not well suited to traditional galvanizing. Because any product breakthrough must be accompanied by advancement and customer oriented thinking at every step in the chain of production and distribution, a concerted effort is required for market evolution to live up to its potential. As such, all those involved in the metals industries should not only track the progress made by technical and marketing innovations, they must participate as much as possible in their development and promotion.

Jan 1, 1986

By T. T. Lin, N. H. Madsen, K. Groom, B. A. Chin

"The objective of this research is to investigate the feasibility of using infrared sensors to monitor the welding process. Data were gathered using an infrared camera which was trained on the molten metal pool during the welding operation. Several types of process perturbations which result in weld defects were then intentionally induced and the resulting thermal images monitored. Gas tungsten arc using AC and DC currents and gas metal arc welding processes were investigated using steel, aluminum and stainless steel plate materials. The thermal images obtained in the three materials and different welding processes revealed nearly identical patterns for the same induced process perturbation. Based upon these results, infrared thermography is a method which may be very applicable to automation of the welding process.IntroductionAutomatic welding is commonplace in industry today. However, most, if not all, involves preprogramming for performance of a repetitive task. These systems are incapable of correcting for perturbations which arise during the welding process. Control of the welding process requires the identification and monitoring of perturbations in a wide variety of parameters. The varied nature of these parameters and the large number of variables involved have thwarted previous attempts at closed loop control of the welding process. The sensor(s) employed by a control system need to meet rather strenuous requirements. First and foremost of these is that such a sensor must be able to identify and discriminate between perturbations that might affect the quality of the weld, including such geometrical perturbations as a change of direction in the seam between the parts being welded, gaps in the seam or a misalignment of the parts being welded. The sensor should also be able to locate and identify contaminants and impurities in the weld puddle and ahead of it while monitoring the extent of the heat-affected zone and the cooling rate of the metal. The sensor(s) should, additionally, be able to perform these tasks in a time frame that is consistent with automatic control of the welding process. This paper presents results that could aid in the assembly of such a controlled welding system."

Jan 1, 1986

By Keith L. Harris

The economy continued to expand during the second quarter, but at a much slower pace than expected. According to latest estimates released by the Department of Commerce, the real gross national product (GNP) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.6% compared with a revised growth rate of 3.8%2 for the first quarter of 1986 and 2.3% for the second quarter of 1985 (table 1). The strong growth of personal consumption expenditures, Government purchases of goods and services, and residential investment was moderated by the growing trade deficit, declining investment in business inventories, and the continuing lag in nonresidential investment. Much of the decreased capital spending for the nonresidential sector for the first and second quarters resulted from reduced petroleum exploration and drilling in response to low petroleum prices. Capital spending and trade continue to be areas of weakness for the economy. Real new plant and equipment expenditures for 1986 are estimated to be 1.3% below those of 1985 (table 2). Real net exports of goods and services decreased $24.6 billion, as exports declined 5.6% and imports grew 16.5%. About two-thirds of the $19.3 billion increase in imports was in petroleum and petroleum products, which, because of their lower prices, should help the economy in the future. In response to the sluggishness of the economy, the Federal Reserve System reduced its discount rate from 6.5% to 6% in early July. Inflation, as measured by the fixed-weighted GNP price index, declined from a revised 2.5% in the first quarter to 1.9% in the second quarter because of significantly lower energy prices.

Jan 1, 1986

The U.S. economy continued to expand during 1986, although at the slowest pace since 1982 when the current business expansion began. Real gross national product (GNP) grew about 2.6%, slightly below 1985 growth but significantly below that of 1984. The continuing expansion was fueled pre-dominantly by rising personal consumption expenditures as well as growing Government purchases of goods and services. Fixed investment, although positive, failed to grow at the rate of the overall economy. The trade deficit, which increased more than 30% over the record 1985 level, continued to depress economic growth despite significant declines in the price of petroleum and the value of the dollar. On a more positive note, domestic employment continued to grow--increasing over 2 million from the 1985 level--and inflation and interest rates declined. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 7.0%. Of direct importance to the mineral-producing industries, expenditures for consumer and producer durables as well as investment in residential construction each grew faster than the overall economy, but investment in nonresidential structures fell more than 10% from the 1985 level. The level of real capital spending declined about 3% in 1986, following strong gains in 1985 and in 1984. Capital expenditures for new plant and equipment bottomed out in the second quarter and expanded in the third and fourth quarters. The decline in the first half of the year was partially attributed to uncertainty arising from the then-proposed tax bill. Also, there was little impetus for corporations to invest in new capacity since factories were operating at less than 80% of capacity during most of the year, in part because of continued competition from imports.

Jan 1, 1986

By V. A. Evans

The preparation of a paper reporting fluorspar economics in the United States at one point in time could have been somewhat complicated be- cause of the number of producers, both large and small, that derived production from different locations throughout the Western U. S. and the Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky fluorspar districts . Companies such as Allied Chemical and William- son Mining operated in the Jamestown district of Colorado. In Walden and Salida, Colorado, the Colorado Fluorspar Company operated mines and mills.

Jan 1, 1986

By Laxman S. Sundae

The Bureau of Mines designed, fabricated, and is using an in-seam tester (1ST) for in situ determination of coal cutting forces. This re-port describes the results of field tests conducted in the Pocahontas No. 3 and Upper Freeport seams to obtain peak and mean cutting forces during coal cutting with several bit geometries, including radial and point attack bits currently used on drum-type machines. Comparisons were also made between new and worn bits, and using data obtained from a Bureau-modified chisel bit. The test results show that longwall plough cutting (horizontal cuts) in bony coal bands (shale) requires >3 times the cutting force for the same cuts in a vertical direction. When no bony coal is present, the cutting forces required to make horizontal and vertical cuts are equal. Worn bits require 4 to 5 times more cutting and normal force than new or undamaged bits. Normal force increased drastically for the worn chisel bit. Peak force encountered in making independent cuts was found to be ~3 times higher than that required to make interactive cuts using a spacing-to-depth-of-cut ratio of 2. Both rake and clearance angles were found to have a significant effect on normal and cutting force.

Jan 1, 1986

By T. W. Lloyd

Accurately predicting coal seam discontinuities is an important part of modern underground coal mining. Conventional methods of coal exploration sometimes fail to identify rapid variations that may seriously impact mining and quality. Radio Imaging Method (RIM), a geophysical approach to mapping longwall panels, has been developed where electromagnetic signals are transmitted and received though the coal block. The amount of signal loss for a given distance, when compared to the coal seam characteristics, identifies anomalous areas. A comparison of RIM predictions with actual geologic conditions encountered during longwall mining demonstrates the accuracy and usefulness of the data.

Jan 1, 1986

By Paul Schmechel

This time of year, our lawn is host to goodly numbers of birds - robins, English sparrows, finches of various flavors and some whose names I don't know. We lure them with a feeder in our backyard and I'm sure Patti and I spend several minutes a day watching them through a picture window that overlooks their coming and going. And, while the picture window supplies us with a constantly changing view, it does not treat our winged friends nearly so kindly. You see, at certain times of the day, reflections on our window feed back to our birds a mirror image of the backyard. Lifting off from the bird feeder, they see before them what is behind them. And, not infrequently they fly straight into the window. They stop abruptly, of course. It has to be quite a shock to discover that what is behind you is not the same as what is in front. At this point, I might be tempted to say something about bird brains - except for the fact that we humans also are prone to deceptive images thrown up by the past. Today, I think we hear a great many voices painting past images as they look to the future. We hear that the price of oil soon will rise to its former elevated position; the price of copper will bounce back; a hungry world soon will escalate the demand for food and our agricultural industry will be back in the black. In fact, we can hear hope from many voices telling us that our major resource-rich, basic industries are poised to fly up. I can hope that the voices are right, but I keep thinking that those expressions come from people seeing false images. Most certainly, it is more comfortable to see the past, rather than acknowledge that the world economy is being restructured and that the restructuring is affecting the Rocky Mountain states profoundly and negatively. The worst mistake we could make may be to place too much credence in the images from our past. We can be lulled into a dangerous complacency. What we need is a tighter belt and the will to do some serious bootstrapping. Before proceeding, I would make two points: First, it is not my intent to be a prophet of doom. But I do think we need some healthy doses of realism, if we are to avoid the shock of flying into a false future. Second, by now you have detected that I have choosen to diversify the assignment you handed me on utility diversification. As I proceed, you soon will see that the roots of diversification for many utilities lie in the subject that we ponder now. We could begin in many places, but let's start with energy. It is pervasive in our businesses and industries. We all use it. And, despite conventional economic wisdom, we are using less of it. The price is down, but we have not reverted to our profligate ways. That is true whether you look at the industrial customer or the residential consumer. As a nation and as a people, we have learned to do more work with less energy. A few statistics illustrated the point. If we use 1973 as the base year, energy use in the United States has declined almost I percent. If we examine the year of peak energy use, 1979, the decline approaches 7 percent. Let's look at it another way. In 1973, for every dollar of gross national product, the United States consumed 27,100 Btu of energy. Last year, 1985, the comparable figure was 20,700 Btu - a decline of 24 percent. So, not only are we using less energy, but we are using it more efficiently. Even though the price of energy has declined, we are unlikely to use substand with natural gas and petroleum consumption. Use of natural gas has dropped almost 21 percent since 1973. Petroleum consumption has declined 1 I percent since 1973 and almost 19 percent since 1978, when the U.S. used a record quantity of petroleum. We also know there's been no appreciable change in amounts of oil and gas used since 1981. We weathered both a sharp recession and a healthy recovery without altering the amount of those fuels used. That the use of oil and gas dropped sharply, while the total use of energy merely slumped a bit is easy to explain. The use of coal, nuclear power and hydroelectricity from 1973 through 1985 increased almost 48 percent. Some people will tell you that the large decrease in the price of oil and gas will result in increased demand that will displace coal, nuclear and hydropower. In turn, demand will force the price of oil and gas upward. I doubt it. From the poking around I've done on the subject, I suspect there may be some short-term displacements, but they will be, for the most part, cancelled out by declining use among existing customers. For instance, we all know what has happened in the automotive sector. In 1973, the average U.S. automobile made 13.1 miles to the U.S. gallon of gasoline. In 1984, the most recent available statistic, the average auto made 16.94 miles to the gallon. That's a 19 percent improvement. Because annual miles driven per automobile are essentially unchanged over the period and the number of cars on the road is not increasing, we are witnessing a drop in this segment of the petroleum market. That trend will continue. Now, let's look at energy consumption patterns still another way. Between 1973 and 1985, consumption in the residential and commercial sectors of our economy increased total energy use by 11.2

Jan 1, 1986