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By Richard R. Bains

"When l hear - I normally remember 10 percent When I hear and see - I can remember 15 to 25 percent When I hear, see, and do - I usually remember up to 50 percent" While this is not a truism in relation to each and every individual; on the average, this is the case. If we use this as a premise in training operator and maintenance personnel, then it must be obvious that we can't rely on a mere presentation, even one which includes the needed classroom participation and/or hands on work, to do a thorough job and to make this personnel totally proficient - 100 percent proficient. We have to have some other device some other means to make this a continuing process, a process wherein the people can grow in knowledge while performing their normal duties. We have to feel that the words "normal duties" are the key to the whole program. If you would ask a crusher operator what his duty is, he might say "To run this crusher so that we produce 250 tons per hour of a minus 13mm (minus 1/2 ") product." A maintenance man could say "To fix the unit when there is a problem." Both of these answers are legitimate but, they are only a part of the total picture. In order for each of these individuals to do the best job, he must know not just the specifics about the machine he works with or on - he must know the interrelation of all the machinery in the crushing circuit - how the efficiency of each machine affects the others - why a minor problem on one piece of equipment can generate a major problem for another unit which follows it or precedes it. In short, you cannot separate machine operation and maintenance from the application of the equipment in the crushing circuit - and obtaining this knowledge must be a part of the normal duty of crushing plant personnel. As an example a crusher - any crusher - is designed to crush oversize material. It is not designed to accept feed which is already at or less than the required product size. If sized material goes to the crusher, increase wear results by using the crusher as a chute or the crushing chamber can be clogged up with the fines. This latter point is particularly true with cone crushers, especially in the third (Short Head) stage of crushing. When a Gyradisc is used (fourth stage crushing) it is even more critical that the product be removed before the material goes to the crusher. The crusher cannot control this - the screen ahead of the crusher does. The screen must be of adequate size and be functioning properly to allow the crusher to work at optimum. Screening is both an art and a science. Since there are so many variables which affect the output of the screen, it is always best to have a screen which is larger than the sizing calculations dictate. The screens are the most important elements in the circuit. Without screens, specification materials cannot be made and the size of the screen will ultimately aid or hinder your ability to get the most production possible out of the plant. There is a formula available from all screen manufacturers which is designed to calculate the proper screen size. It takes into consideration the

Jan 1, 1982

By T. Y. Yan

SUMMARY Laboratory high pressure column tests have shown that the presence of 1-20 ppm of aluminum ion effectively prevents permeability loss during uranium leaching with leachates containing sodium carbonate. If added after permeability loss has occurred, aluminum ion can restore the permeability to nearly its original value. No deleterious effect was observed on uranium leaching performance and the technique should be quite compatible with all field operations. INTRODUCTION The recovery of uranium values from underground deposits by in situ leaching or solution mining has become economically viable and competitive with conventional open pit or underground mining/milling systems (Merrit, 1971). In situ leaching processes are particularly suitable for small, low-grade deposits located in deep formations and dispersed in many thin layers. Many such ore bodies occur along a broad band of the Gulf Coastal Plain (Eargle et. al., 1971). The advantages of the in situ leaching processes have been reviewed (Anderson and Ritchi, 1968). In the in situ leaching process, a lixiviant containing the leaching chemicals is injected into the subterranean deposit and solubilizes uranium as it traverses the ore body. The pregnant lixiviant or leachate is produced from the production well and is then treated to recover the uranium. The resulting barren solution is made up with the leaching chemical to form lixiviant for re-injection. Upon completion of the leaching operation, the formation is contaminated with leaching chemicals and other species made soluble in the leaching operation and has to be treated to reduce the concentration of these contaminants in the ground water to levels acceptable to the regulatory agencies (Witlington and Taylor, 1978). Restoration is accomplished by injecting a restoration fluid, which could be the fresh water or water containing chemicals, into the formation. As it traverses the leached formation, the restoration fluid picks up the contaminants and is then produced at the production well. This produced water is either disposed or purified for recycle. In both phases of operation, formation permeability or well injectivity is one of the most important parameters which determines the viability of the in situ leaching process. Low formation permeability limits production rates, leading to uneconomical operations. The formation is said to be sensitive if there is a sharp loss of permeability on contact with water and other fluids. Many uranium bearing formations, for example, the Catahoula formation of the Texas Coastal Plain, contain significant amounts of clay minerals which are water sensitive. Serious permeability losses can occur when the pH and chemical composition of the lixiviant is significantly different from that of the formation water. Jones has investigated the influence of chemical composition of water on clay blocking of permeability (Jones, 1964) and Mungan studied permeability reduction through changes in pH and salinity of the water (Mungan, 1965). Various mechanisms of permeability damage have been proposed and reviewed (Jones, 1964; Mungan, 1965; Gray and Rex, 1966; and Veley, 1969). When large amounts of swelling clays are present, a significant fraction of the flow channels in the formation can be reduced due to swelling. However, in most cases, swelling need not be the main cause of permeability losses. Particle dispersion and migration or clay sliming can be more important causes for formation damage. Clay particles entrained in the moving fluids are carried downstream until they lodge in pore constrictions. As a result, microscopic filter cakes are formed by these obstructions, plugging the pores, effectively restricting fluid flow and reducing the formation permeability. Moore found that as little as 1-4 percent clays present in a fine grained sandstone could completely plug the formation if they are contacted by incompatible injected fluids (Moore, 1960). It has been found that injection of NaHC03/Na2CO3 lixiviant into formations with significant clay content often leads to loss of formation permeability and well injectivity. To alleviate this problem a change of the lixiviant composition to KHC03/K2CO3 has been proposed. At present, however, many in situ leaching operations employ NH4HC03/(NH4)2C03 mixtures as a source of carbonates. This approach has been successfully used in South Texas by Mobil, Intercontinental Energy, Wyoming Minerals and U.S. Steel, etc. The use of ammonium carbonates solutions, however, contaminates the formation and requires a time-consuming restoration operation. The other approach to reduce the permeability loss is to pretreat the sensitive formation with chemicals which prevent clay dispersion and migration. Such chemicals include hydroxy-aluminum (Reed, 1972 and Coppel et. al., 1973), hydrolyzable zirconium salts (Peters and Stout, 1977), hydrolyzable metal ions in general (Veley, 1969) and polyelectrolyte polymers (Anonymous). Still another approach, is to minimize the "shock" caused by sudden injection by gradually changing the chemical composition of the injected fluids from that of the formation water. THE APPROACH Since permeability loss can be an important factor limiting the efficiency and economic viability of the in situ leaching process, a study was initiated on

Jan 1, 1982

By D. S. Rogers

"Throughout the history of mining at the Dome, gold has been found in a number of different rock types and in association with a number of different structural settings. Diamond drilling plays an important role in the evaluation of the stratigraphic and structural features which control ore deposition. The main function of diamond drilling is to locate favourable areas of mineralization.To date, over 20,000 diamond drill holes have been drilled from combined surface and underground programs. Needless to say, a great many significant intersections, carrying a wide range of gold values, have resulted from the total of over 756 miles of drill cores which these programs have produced.However, the term ""significant"" takes on new meaning in light of the experience of diamond drilling in a number of ore-type situations at the Dome Mine. Drilling through individual ore veins, such as the Fuchsite Vein or the Quartz-Tourmaline Vein, often intersect the vein structure; however, assays from the veins frequently fail to yield any ore grades. Similarly, drill cores through stringer-type occurrences such as dacite or conglomerate, when assayed, fail to indicate the true size or grade of the orebody ultimately mined.IntroductionOver the years, those who explore for gold and those who have the slightly less fickle task of actually mining gold have shared a common dilemma. That dilemma lies in the failure to relate the results of diamond drill information to a positive ore situation, or ultimately to reconcile ""diamond drill indicated ore"" to actual ore reserve tonnages.Drawing on the knowledge of more than 72 years of mining history at the Dome operation in the famous Porcupine Camp, this paper will review a number of drift and stope situations in which the grades of the ore material extracted will be compared with the anticipated grade of that same drift or zone as calculated solely on the basis of diamond drill assays."

Jan 1, 1982

By David S. Bolin

INTRODUCTION This paper is directed toward those companies or individuals who may be considering the possibility of tin exploration or development projects in South America. Although tin deposits are known in many countries of Latin-America including Argentina, Peru, and Mexico, the majority of the deposits are located in Bolivia and Brazil. These two countries also account for virtually all the current production. Many factors affect the economic decisions related to mining and exploration projects in this region including the following: 1) Types of deposits 2) Anticipated size and grade of deposits 3) Deposit geometry and ore distribution as it affects the selection of a mining method 4) Metallurgical amenability 5) Governmental policies 6) Taxation 7) Anticipated capital and operating costs 8) Marketing costs This discussion will be directed toward each of these points. The majority of the presentation will be concentrated on Bolivia as this country is the principal producer in the region, however, the potential for further tin development in Brazil is excellent. Due to the remote and previously almost inaccessible location of the stanniferous districts of Brazil, little is known with respect to size and type of non-alluvial deposits which may exist in this vast country. TYPES OF DEPOSITS Two major types of deposits are currently being exploited in Bolivia; alluvial, and hard rock or lode deposits. Bolivia produces substantial tin from both types of deposit whereas virtually all Brazilian production to date has been from alluvial sources. Alluvial Deposits Brazil: The alluvial tin deposits of Brazil are located in river channels and flood plains adjacent to low mountain ranges. The terrain containing the tin placers is flat, marshy, and generally jungle covered. The major controls of alluvial cassiterite concentration are the ancient and present stream channels. The average tin concentration in the placers varies from 500 grams to approximately 1.0 kilograms per cubic meter. Tin reserves in the Rondonia field of Brazil have been estimated at 600,000 tons of fine tin. A bucketwheel suction dredge went into production in the Rondonia district in 1979, and four others have since been ordered. Several other gravel pump, and hand mining operations are also in production in this field. In addition to the Rondonia district, tin occurrences are known from Xingu, in Para state, and in the state of Minas Gerais. Bolivia: The alluvial deposits of Bolivia are somewhat more complex due to the variable geomorphology and abrupt topography. Conventional placer accumulations of cassiterite are found in many stream channels and intermontane basins surrounding the major lode tin producing regions. In addition to stream and valley placers, a group of deposits locally referred to as "Pallacos" or "Llamperas" which consist of colluvium, landslide debris and glacial moraine material, contain substantial tin reserves in some areas. The stream channel and intermontane basins contain the only deposits which are presently being exploited by mechanized methods. One dredge is working the stream channel below Cerro Rico de Potosi and another is operating in an intermontane basin southeast of the city of Oruro. Both of these dredges are operated by private companies. The average grade for these operations varies from 250 to 500 grams per cubic meter. The largest of the intermontane basin placers known at present is the Centenario deposit located adjacent to the Catavi lode deposit. This deposit contains approximately 170 million cubic meters of material with an average grade of about 150 grams per cubic meter. The "Pallacos" deposits are found on the slopes of mineralized areas and in glacial moraine. The mineralized material is generally completely unsorted, with tin and sometimes tungsten values distributed erratically throughout the entire mass. Most of these deposits are worked by small leasors or cooperatives; however, at least one mechanized washing plant is in operation southeast of Oruro. The size of these deposits may reach up to several million cubic yards. Grades are very erratic, but may range from 200 to 500 grams per cubic yard. In addition to the formal mining operations, virtually every drainage surrounding the major mines is being worked by independent' miners utilizing hand mining and jig or pan concentration. The aggregate production from these operations is substantial. The

Jan 1, 1982

By William F. Abercrombie

The role of the laboratory is described in relation to the prospecting and exploration of kaolin clays. Test methods used to evaluate crude ore samples of kaolin clay for commercial consideration are reviewed. A background of the kaolin mineral and known means of prospecting this mineral are presented. Common analytical methods are discussed with special emphasis on those in use today.

Jan 1, 1982

By Takaji Kusakawa

In Japan, almost no natural gypsum is mined for industrial uses of gypsum, and almost all gypsum is synthetic gypsum, that is desulphogypsum, produced by waste sulphur dioxide gas from metal smelters and power plants, and other industrial waste sources. The amount of such sythetic gypsum production has reached more than six million metric tons per year (1979). Major uses are for cements and building materials. Other uses are soil conditioner, investment casting mold, organic composite materials, etc and sulphur recovery by gypsum decomposition is being examined. This paper summarizes present Japanese production and uses of sythetic gypsun produced from industrial waste.

Jan 1, 1982

By John Durkin

The Bureau of Mines has conducted field studies in coal mines through- out the United States to determine the effectiveness of electromagnetic techniques in locating miners trapped underground following a mine accident. Data from these tests have been used to generate models of expected signal and noise distributions as found above mines throughout the coalfields. These distributions have aided in placing the expected performance of a through-the-earth electromagnetic communications technique into a probabilistic framework. Results show that at a 10-pct false alarm rate, the expected probability of detecting a miner's signal from a depth of 1,000 ft is 54 pct; at 500 ft it is 95 pct. These depths exceed the actual depths of 90 pct and 50 pct, respectively, of U.S. coal mines. Sensitivity studies have shown that at a depth of 1,000 ft, for every 3 db of improvement in signal-to-noise ratio, the probability of detection increases 6 to 8 pct.

Jan 1, 1982

By Prescott Greene

AVAILABLE MACHINES Machines discussed in this section include only rubber tire mounted kerf cutting machines of a self¬propelled electrically powered design. Such machines handle bars up to 4.6 m (15 ft) in length, cutting kerfs of from 115 to 191 mm (4.5 to 7.5 in.). The basic design concept of all machines currently in production is very similar. The chassis features dual driving wheels on the cutter-bar end, fixed directly to the main frame. The steering wheels on the outby end of the frame are articulated in some manner to keep all four wheels on the floor over uneven bottom. Machine power for tramming, and all other functions except powering the cutting chain, is furnished from a pump motor that drives the specific pump or pumps required by a given machine. The cutter chain is driven through a mechanical drive train from a separate electric motor having no duty other than driving the chain. The general arrangement of a cutting machine is shown in Fig. 1; two types of machines, with their specifications are shown in Figs. 2 through 5. A hydraulically powered cable normally is included to eliminate the need for manual cable handling and make this a one-man machine. A bug duster, though optional, is needed for most applications. The bug duster is an hydraulically driven scroll conveyor located directly behind the cutter chain drive sprocket. Its function is to move the cuttings away from the sprocket to prevent them from packing up in this area and consuming a lot of machine power to further pulverize them. Available machines vary from models 610 mm (24 in.) high that can cut horizontally only from 203 mm (8 in.) below ground line to 229 mm (9 in.) above, to machines 1143 mm (45 in.) high that can cut in any plane from 178 mm (7 in.) below the ground line to 3.7 m (12 ft) above it. Most currently manufactured machines fall in the 17 200 to 20 400 kg (38,000 to 45,000 lb) weight range, but can be dis¬assembled for underground installation where weight and size are a problem. Maximum teardown results in all pieces having a weight of 5400 kg (12,000 lb) or less and a size allowing passage through a 1.2 x 2.1-m (4x7-ft) opening. Further reduction in either size or weight of the parts becomes a serious problem. Machines currently being manufactured are avail¬able for use with power supplies of 250 v dc; 500 v dc; 440, 550, or 950 v ac (60 Hz). Also available are machines for use on 415, 500, and 950 v 50 Hz. De¬signs to allow operation on other voltages of either 50 or 60 Hz can be made available without any serious problems. As of September 1977, a typical medium-seam ma¬chine without the extra options needed for unusual conditions, but fully equipped to operate, was selling for about $185,000. CAPABILITIES Materials That Can Be Cut The problem of deciding before a machine is put on the job whether it can work effectively is an old one that has never been completely solved and probably

Jan 1, 1982

By John H. White

As production of ground limestone increased our Company found it had an enviromental problem with limestone dust from our hammer mills. With the quarry and processing plant situated within 1 klm of a small township of 5000 people dust collection became essential. Regulations under the Clean Air Act 1972 also had to be complied with. Prior to this any demand for lime flour had been met by the use of a small drier and ball mill. Both expensive to operate. Dust emitting from the mills would amount to over 4000 tonnes per year. The cost savings were obvious. We had a better product which was essentially a by-product. Faced with a surplus of a very useful, but difficult product to handle we considered the possibility of disposing of it on the agricultural market.

Jan 1, 1982

By J. P. Schmid

Results of a comprehensive investigation of the impact of underground mine waste disposal on the health and safety of miners are presented. Information was gathered through an extensive search of American and foreign literature and personal communication with professionals in private industry and government. All conceivable health and safety hazards directly or indirectly related to underground mine waste disposal are analyzed, catagorized, and ranked on an industry-wide basis. Positive health and safety effects are analyzed and ranked in a similar way. Both potential and known hazards and positive impacts are included. Recommendations on abatement techniques for the various hazards are presented. Case histories of a fill-related accident in a metal mine and a health hazard associated wtih coal waste backfilling are included and causes and possible abatement procedures are discussed. The rule of management in the promotion of health and safety in backfilling operation is discussed.

Jan 1, 1982

By Stanley M. Miller

The probabilistic nature of appropriate geologic variables can be included in analyzing the stability of potential slope failure modes. Random variables in the two-dimensional plane shear analysis of a specified structural discontinuity include the shear strength and waviness angle of the discontinuity and, in some cases, the rock mass density. Estimated probability density functions that describe these random variables are combined by Fourier analysis to produce an estimate of the safety factor probability density function, which appears to approximate a gamma distribution. The probability that sliding will occur along the specified structure is equal to the area under this density function where the safety factor is less than one.

Jan 1, 1982

By Allen D. Graham

The coal industry in South Africa is briefly outlined. Test- work carried out on bulk samples of coal in the laboratory and used in the design of the Van Dyks Drift washery are described. Factors affecting the selection of equipment and the designed capacity of the plant are discussed. A description of the crushing plant, washery and load out section is given together with performance data obtained in the final acceptance tests. New features incorporated in the Van Dyks Drift plant and in more recent plants of the Group are outlined.

Jan 1, 1982

By Edward F. Divers

Face ventilation is generally the most critical area in the coal mine ventilation system. Various studies have repeatedly shown that good ventilation is by far the most effective and least costly method of controlling dust and gas problems created during face operations. The Bureau of Mines has recently developed and assisted in the development of several new concepts in face ventilation systems, and in methods to accurately evaluate these systems underground. A new type of scrubber and ventilation system design built into the auger support frame of a continu- ous miner was developed. The objective was to improve face ventilation and reduce respirable dust concentrations. With this arrangement, one scrubber is mounted into each side of the boom. Laboratory and underground tests of various scrubber discharge arrangements showed good to excellent dust and methane control. Combined face ventilation systems, using both blowing and exhaust curtain, potentially offer dust and gas control and deeper cutting. Bureau tests at a mine using a combined face ventilation system and remote- control-operated continuous miners showed excellent dust and methane control. The advancement of line curtain systems beyond permanent supports without exposing workmen to roof fall hazards can be accomplished only with specially designed extendable devices. Numerous concepts for line curtain extension have been developed and tested. For the past several years, the Bureau has been testing various types of extensible face ventilation systems. These extensible systems can generally be classified as floor-, roof-, machine-, and rib-mounted systems. In the past 6 years, approximately 40 systems have been evaluated for feasibility. From these, several have been selected as practical or innovative and are presented herein. A technique developed by the Bureau to accurately and safely evaluate the effectiveness of face ventilation is also presented.

Jan 1, 1982

By Woodcock JT

This paper deals with some innovations and current proposals for the treatment of gold ores and considers the possibilities of incorporating new developments in new or revised ore treatment flowsheets. The main topics considered are I. typical practice in relation to the size of gold particles, 2. concentration of coarse gold, 3. leaching reagents, 4. in situ leaching, 5. heap leaching, 6. carbon-in-pulp adsorption, and 7. treatment of complex ores (gold in pyrite, gold tellurides, and carbon-containing ores).

Jan 1, 1982

By Dirk A. Benham, William A. Warfield

INTRODUCTION Whenever a mine operator is faced with a decision between various mining methods or even equipment selection, he must be assured that his decision will have a positive effect on his economic operating goals. For instance, if a mine operator has a choice of using an LHD mining system or a slusher mining system, then his decision to use either must not only fit within the operational limitations of the mining plan (such as production requirements, physical features of the ore body, mine plant facilities, manpower requirements, etc.), but also assure that the ore is being extracted at the least possible cost. To aid in his decision making process, the operator will commonly compare acquisition costs, operating costs, maintenance costs, and the operational advantages and disadvantages of each system in addition to considering his personal observations and feelings. A decision to select a mining system using only those criteria aforementioned will not necessarily lead the operator down the path to maximizing profits. In addition, the operator should also compare the economic effects of each system upon the overall mining operation. A relatively simple method for determining the economic effects is to calculate and compare the break-even grades for each system under consideration. By implementing such an analysis, the operator can now select a mining system which can operate within the limits of the mining plan as well as extract the ores at the least possible cost, thus yielding maximum profits. This paper will present the geologic and physical conditions of a mine being operated by the Hypothetical Mining Company in the Grants Mineral District. An LHD and Blusher mining system are under consideration and are compared by examining operating costs, equipment availability, and the conventional operational advantages and disadvantages of each. Finally, the economic effects of each system upon the overall mine's operation are compared by utilizing break-even grade analysis. DESCRIPTION AND MINING METHODS The Hypothetical Mining Company has located an ore body in the Grants Mineral District. After extensive surface exploration drilling and cost considerations are evaluated, it is decided to open a mine. The following tasks must now be performed: 1. outline ore body and it's basic characteristics, 2. look at mining methods currently in use in the area, and 3. determine mining techniques and methods for exploitation of the ore body. For the sake of argument, the newly discovered ore body is located towards the western edge of the Grants Mineral Belt. The host rock for uranium mineralization is the Westwater Member of the Morrison Formation. The Westwater Canyon sands are overlain by the Brushy Basin Member of the Morrison Formation and underlain by the Recapture Member, all of Jurassic Age. Westwater Canyon sandstone is a fine to very course grained subarkosic sand with interbedded green and red mudstone. The Brushy Basin Member consists predominantly of greenish-gray mudstones and contains thin lenses of sandstone and a few thin beds of limestone. The Recapture Member consists of alternating thin beds of reddish brown, grayish red, and light gray sandstone and siltstone. The Recapture interfingers with the Cowsprings Sandstone in the area of the mine. The mineralization is based on the groundwater flow within the Morrison Formation. Primary ore distribution is based on three basic parameters: ore migration in a geochemical cell, lenticular mudstone interbedding, and enrichment along fault zones. In areas where two fault systems intersect, ore thicknesses of up to 30 m (100 ft.) are encountered. In those areas where the ore is well defined and thicknesses facilitate full face mining, the mining methods are determined more by ground or operating conditions, equipment availability, and access to working areas than they are in the fringe areas of the ore body where grade control is more important and split-shooting and break-even grade determines the mining technique. If a modified room-and-pillar mining method using systematic development is selected, better control of the ventilation, equipment utilization, and mining plan can be obtained. Figure I shows a typical mining area where the ore is thick,

Jan 1, 1982

By P. C. Upadhyay, J. G. Singh

Reissner's thick plate bending theory has been recast for rocks which exhibit the property of double elasticity: different Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio in compression and tension. The governing differential equation and other relevent expressions have been presented in a form compatible to the applied mechanics results so that they can readily be used. Effect of the ratio of Young's modulii in compression and tension, (Ec/Et), on the maximum plate deflection and the maximum bending moments has been evaluated over a wide range. It has been found that the inclusion of bi-modulus property through a parameter (ß = Ec/Et), changes the sheer deformation of the plate to such an extent that the bi-modular effect of rock cannot be overlooked in the thick plate analysis, especially when ß is expected to be greater than 2.

Jan 1, 1982

By Rodolfo V. de la Cruz

The in situ deformability of rock masses is determined by relating the applied load to the radial displacements of points on the borehole wall that are outside of the loaded surfaces. The external displacement method includes the steps in which: a) radial displacement sensors are installed to measure the change in length of a diameter of a borehole; b) unidirectional self- equilibrating pair of forces perpendicular to the direction of radial displacement measurements are applied on opposite sectors of the borehole wall, and; c) using elastic theory, the in-situ deformability of the rock mass can be related with the applied loads and measured radial displacements. The displacements outside the loaded surfaces are comparatively smaller in magnitude than displacements inside the loaded surfaces. These displacements, however, are sufficiently large and can be measured precisely by commercially available linear displacement sensors. Loads are applied by a conventional borehole jack. Existing methods for measuring the in situ deformability of rock masses yields unreliable results due to complex boundary stresses, small and varying contact areas, and the existence of fractures. It was shown that in the external displacement method, the effect of boundary pressure distribution and contact area are negligible. Also, since the displacements measured in the external displacement method were due to materials that are deeper inside the rock mass, borehole fractures have less influence on the calculated deformation modulus.

Jan 1, 1982

"Projections of demand for Alberta coal indicate a quadrupling of current production rates to some 70 million tonnes/year by the end of the century. About half of this output-comprised of subbituminous coal-will be required within the province, primarily for generation of electric energy. The remainder-roughly 70 per cent high-volatile bituminous (hvb) steam coal and 30 per cent medium- or low-volatile bituminous (mvb/lvb) metallurgical coal-will be exported, principally to Pacific Rim and Western European countries. Direct employment in mining and coal processing is projected to increase from the present ca. 3000 to at least 12,000 persons.This paper presents separate forecasts for subbituminous, hvb and mvb/lvb coal production in the period 1982-2000; notes a number of possible developments that could substantially modify these forecasts; and briefly discusses attendant infrastructure requirements. Attention is drawn to potential shortages of qualified manpower and to threatening inadequacies of transportation facilities.IntroductionDespite the dislocations triggered by the 1973 'oil crisis', energy budgets of Western industrial countries are mostly still in the very early stages of the anticipated transition to greater reliance on coal. Shift s to coal are still more often only talked about than being implemented; and the public policies which are essential for timely development of facilities for producing, transporting and using coal are in many instances not yet even broadly formulated, let alone enunciated.In these circumstances, long-range projections of coal demand and supply-even if restricted to internal requirements- are subject to greater uncertainties than usually afflict such forecasts.On the demand side of the equation, these uncertainties arise ultimately from linkages between a need for coal and the availability and pricing of OPEC oil. The current surplus of oil on world markets, which has recently forced substantial reductions of posted prices, is undoubtedly a transient phenomenon that is unlikely to have any long-term impact."

Jan 1, 1982

By Frederik W. de Klerk

INTRODUCTION During the past 40 years, there has been in the United States of America and other industrialised Western countries a distinct displacement in the procurement of minerals from domestic sources towards an increased dependence on imported minerals. This was caused in part by one or each of the following: a lack of local supply of particular minerals, domestic source depletion or exhaustion and the relative ease and inexpensiveness of obtaining minerals from comparatively unexploited sources in underdeveloped and some developing countries, notably in the Middle East, South America, Southern Africa, and Australasia. Governments of the industrialised nations, concerned about the reliance of their economies on imported raw minerals examined both the degree of reliability and the extent of mineral resources in the countries and regions supplying the essential minerals. This brought a painful awareness of the vulnerability of industrialised countries as a result of the possible interruption of their mineral imports. In this regard, the United States of America may be quoted as a case in point: a report by a House of Representatives Subcommittee on Mines and Mining (Santini Subcommittee)1 revealed that the United States in 1980 was dependent on foreign sources for more than 50 per cent for 24 of the 32 minerals essential for national survival. The Subcommittee also acknowledged that although the United States may develop its own alternative energy sources, there are in many cases no substitutes for the strategic + minerals imported from foreign sources, from countries which are often unstable at best, hostile at worst. This resulted in various policy responses as well as contingency measures, amongst other, renewed emphasis on the utilisation of domestic mineral resources, an intensified search for substitutes of critical minerals and increased stockpiling programmes. Increased attention was devoted to analyses of the political and economic conditions prevailing in the regions from which strategic and other minerals are exported to the industrialised countries, and the formulation of policy measures vis-a-vis those regions. One region which attracted a considerable degree of attention has been Southern Africa, and in particular South Africa.2 The Santini Subcommittee affirmed that while the bulk of the minerals imported by the United States is supplied by a number of source countries, a host of critical[t] minerals vital to the well-being of that country (and this includes all the Western industrialised countries) originates from Southern Africa, a region, deservedly referred to as the "Persian Gulf of Minerals". Apart from the Republic of South Africa the mineral-rich countries concerned are Angola (diamonds, iron ore, oil), Botswana (diamonds, coal), South West Africa/Namibia (diamonds, uranium), Zambia (copper, cobalt), Zaire (industrial diamonds, copper, cobalt) and Zimbabwe (gold, nickel, chromium, asbestos). The Subcommittee however noted that, with the exception of cobalt, the greatest portion of the reserves of the critical minerals listed, lies within the borders of South Africa. SOUTH AFRICA A RELIABLE PURVEYOR OF MINERALS In view of the continual instability and political risk, along with the nationalisation of mineral industries in third world countries, importing industrialised nations have in recent years become more and more concerned about security of long-term supply, and have in consequence begun to diversify their mineral enquiries to areas where the following conditions prevail: • Long-standing record of consistency of supply; • An economic system of private enterprise; • Political stability; • A well integrated infrastructure, with a maintenance of transportation and development costs at realistic levels, and • Attractive investment opportunities, with security of the return of profits.

Jan 1, 1982

By Lynn C. Jacobsen

Among the unforeseen consequences of the 1973 Arab oil embargo has been a considerable array of new or increased taxes on the so-called energy minerals. These taxes will be the subject of this report. Both Federal and State taxes have been enacted, but I will be concerned mostly with state severance taxes and particularly those on uranium. Severance taxes are considered to include all taxes having the distinctive feature of being applied on a natural resource at the stage of extraction. The tax may be based on units of production or on value, and if on values it may be on gross value or on gross value less either arbitrary or cost-related deductions. The tax has a number of aliases - resource excise tax, conservation tax, privilege tax, mining excise tax, ad valorem production tax, and more - and this makes comparison of tax burdens among states difficult. The windfall profit tax on oil is an example of a severance tax at the Federal level. Severance taxes are an established feature of state tax systems, but they continue to be a controversial issue, and proposals to raise or modify existing severance taxes are regularly submitted to the legislatures of the Western energy producing states. No concensus exists as to what is a reason- able and proper level of severance taxation or to the form it should take. The taxes which have been adopted by the various states reflect the interaction of a variety of interests and the specific circum- stances in each state. What follows is a summary of theoretical, practical, and emotional viewpoints and arguments that surface in any statehouse in which a severance tax bill has been introduced. The New Mexico experience will be heavily relied upon. THE ECONOMISTS Marginal effects. A severance tax which is based on a gross percentage of revenue or on units of production is a constant addition to variable costs, and to the mine operator has the same effect as any other increase in operating costs. The direction of these effects is straightforward: the tax will cause the property to have a lowered present value, to be mined at a lower rate than without the tax, raise the minimum grade that will be mined, lead to lower total recovery, make marginal properties sub-marginal and discriminate in favor of richer, more profitable operations (Lockner, 1965; Steele, 1967). In the short run, production facilities are fixed and imposition of a severance tax will have little effect on production levels. In the longer term, capital is mobile and investment and exploration expenditures will shift from minerals and jurisdictions with high taxes to those with low taxes. Over a considerable range of taxation the effect will be to change the relative position of the taxing state, but an overly optimistic evaluation of the capacity of mineral producers to absorb a tax can bring an industry to a halt. It is generally acknowledged that imposition of high severance taxes on taconite in Minnesota stopped development completely, and that only the adoption of a constitutional amendment limiting the amount of taxes that could be imposed in the future brought the firms back and encouraged them to make the huge investments required (Weaton, 1969). A tax which is a percentage of the net operating income (gross revenue less cash operating costs) does not influence the cut-off grade for recovery nor change the time preference for extraction, and hence, is free of the negative features of the tax applied to gross revenues or units of production. In theory it is a more efficient tax but relative administrative complexity and inherent difficulty in predicting revenue have discouraged its use. The Wyoming severance tax on uranium, which uses grade of ore as well as price in establishing taxable value, is the most cost related, and hence, the most neutral and efficient of the various state severance taxes on uranium. Economic rent. Despite the discrimination and the anti-conservation aspect inherent in most severance taxes, economists generally endorse their use because they are seen as a vehicle to appropriate rents - that is, returns greater than the long-run competitive supply price. Conspicuous examples of supposed economic rents are the returns to oil producers because of the OPEC cartel, the returns of the uranium producers under AEC buying contracts in the 19501s, and the high prices obtained by the uranium producers for contracts entered into in the 1976-1979 period. Mining of coal in the Western states is believed by some to generate huge economic rents because of the OPEC caused increase in price of a competitive fuel (McLure, 1978, p. 261), and possibly because of clean air regulations favoring the burning of low-sulfur coal. In theory, such surplus returns could be taxed completely away without affecting supply. In practice, the situation is more complex (Steele, 1967, pp. 234-236); economic rent of mineral production is an elusive quantity involving as it does replacement costs, and technical and market risk, and it, like beauty or pornography, probably exists mostly in the eye of the beholder. Rent may also be perceived to be present in the upper portion of a cyclic market which also has a downside. Where rent exists, it is almost certain to be short-lived - cartels self- destruct, government subsidies end, competitive adjustments occur - but the taxes imposed to capture it tend to be immortal. There is little doubt that the perception of un- usual and undeserved (obscene) profits in the mid- and late 1970's was a major factor in the adoption of energy mineral taxes strikingly higher than had been previously considered. At the New Mexico legislature of 1977 supporters of a moderate tax were repeatedly confronted with some variant of the statement, "You can't expect me to believe that a

Jan 1, 1982