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By R. Mohan Srivastava

"The goal of estimation is considered in the light of decision analysis. A simple example reveals the essential elements of decision-making in the face of uncertainty. A second example shows that these elements are also key features of many mining decisions. These two examples cause us to revive an old probabilistic notion that the goal of estimation should be to quantify what is unknown. The conditional probability distribution provides the complete statement of one's uncertainty. Once the conditional probability distribution has been established, one should retain as an estimate the value which minimizes some objective loss function. A third example shows how the ""best"" estimate depends on the chosen loss function. Current practice is almost exclusively based on the least squares method, which assumes a loss function which penalizes underestimation and overestimation equally. This is unfortunate not only because symmetry is an unrealistic assumption but also because mining offers a rare opportunity to state the loss function directly in terms of profitability. Both the theoretical framework and the practical tools exist to allow us to reconsider the conventional notion of the ""best"" estimate. IntroductionThis paper looks at estimation in the mining industry from the point-of-view of decision analysis. Virtually all decisions depend on estimates since few of the important parameters are ever known exactly. In this paper we will be referring mainly to the estimation of ore grades, though the approach discussed here is generally applicable to any decision in which relevant information is uncertain.In the first section we look at a very simple example of decision-making in the face of uncertainty. We will then tum to a mining example and see that the essential features of the simple example still pertain. From these two examples it will be clear that the decision analysis approach rests on two key concepts: the conditional probability distribution and the loss function. A third example demonstrates how different loss functions produce different ""best"" estimates from the same conditional probability distribution. In the final sections we willexamine the current practice of estimation in the mining industry. Though the tools for estimating the conditional probability distribution already exist, a change in the way we think about ""best"" estimates is needed. Very little attention is presently paid to the loss function even though it is readily available in many mining applications."

Jan 1, 1987

By J. Douglas Causey

In 1985, at the request of the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Bureau of Mines studied a portion of the 110,000 acre Massacre Rim Wilderness Study Area (CA-020-1013). The area studied, containing 23,260 acres, is located in northwest Washoe County, Nevada, about 25 miles west of Vya adjoining the Charles Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge. Basalt caps older tuffaceous sedimentary rocks in an area that contains no claims or prospects. No mineral resources were identified during this investigation.

Jan 1, 1987

By G. Wheeler

Epithermal gold exploration in the last decade has developed useful models for exploring new ore districts in Oregon. In Eastern Oregon, disseminated gold occurs in epithermal deposits that have been pervasively silicified and brecciated. Many gold prospects staked since 1980 are in fluvial and lacustrine sandstone and conglomerate deposits. Clay alteration products and disseminated pyrite may be present. Vein filling calcite and thin to thick quartz veins are common. Late stage quartz forms pseudomorphs after calcite in many deposits. Arsenic, mercury and gold are geochemically anomolous but silver is usually not. The epithermal deposits are located in part of the Deer Butte Formation or equivalent units. Exploration criteria include the presence of Deer Butte Formation or correlative units and NW structures cut by N-S basin and range structures.

Jan 1, 1987

By D. A. Norrgran

The process of magnetic separation is based on the differences among magnetic susceptibilities of various mineral species. Performed either wet or dry, the separation has application in both the recovery and concentration of value minerals and in removing deleterious mineral constituents from a product stream. There are two major catagories to be considered when addressing magnetic separation of minerals. The first catagory refers to particle characterization and relative differences in magnetic susceptibility. The second catagory refers to design parameters and the magnetic field generated by the separator.

Jan 1, 1987

By R. A. Roberti

Most copper refineries use conventional wheel systems to cast anodes. over a period of time the copper moulds that are used become warped and cracks develop. To control mould warpage, the mould's are either rejected after a certain warpage is reached, or the shape is restored by mechanical means. The cracks, unless they are very severe, are repaired by a peening process. Even with regular maintenance to control warpage and cracks, the moulds have a limited useful life. If warpage and cracks are not controlled, anode quality deteriorates and tankhouse operations are seriously affected. -An intensive study was initiated to develop means of controlling mould warpage which culminated in the d?evelopment of technology to control mould warpage to within ±1. 5 mm, and at the same time effectively contr0l: cracking and significantly increase the mould life-. The warpage control has been achieved by using a unique mould design. Mould cavities are present on both sides of the mould and periodic inverting controls the wa-rpage in the cavities. The mould casting procedure has been developed and all production wheels have been converted to the new mould design. The performance characteristics of these moulds will be detailed. 21

Jan 1, 1987

The block caving mining method is used to mine large orebodies in weak rock types. The layout for block caving requires that a considerable amount of development is carried out on the extraction drives and drawpoints at the bottom of the caving block. The development further weakens the rock mass, and stability problems arise in the extraction drives and extraction pillars. This paper describes the application of three-dimensional boundary element models in analysing alternative extraction level layouts for a block caving mine. The objectives were to establish whether the use of lateral pillars between drawpoints was warranted, and whether the lateral pillars should be offset or not. The stability of the rock mass within the pillars as well as the stability of the extraction drives were taken into account. The results showed that after undercutting, the horizontal and vertical stresses in the extraction level would be reduced. The lateral pillars would significantly improve the stability of the extraction pillars and extraction drives. There would be a minor improvement in stability if the lateral pillars were offset.

Jan 1, 1987

By M. J. McPherson, P. Mousset-Jones, G. Danko

Ventilation and refrigeration fortune climate modification contributes significantly to the operating costs of a deep hot mine. Mine climate simulation programs can he used to minimize the impact of these costs. There are several computer codes available to assist in this work. Whichever simulation program is used, it is the mine ventilation engineer who must supply the input data. This paper raises and answers the following question, namely, what accuracy is required of the basic input parameters, in order for a certain precision to he obtained in the predicted air temperatures? In the first part of the paper a new approach is described to estimate the dry and wet bulb temperature of the airflow, either in a dry or wet roadway. The calculation procedure allows an arbitrary temperature change with time, using Duhamel's superposition solution. Matrix-vector representation is applied to simplify the computational structure. In the second part of the paper the sensitivities of the dry and wet bulb air temperatures are analyzed, to the changes of the rock thernrophysical properties, the heat transfer coefficient, and the wetness factor.

Jan 1, 1987

The Australian Coal Combustion Testing and Research Facility has been operating commercially for one year and during that period coal product evaluations have been conducted on behalf of four coal companies and one electricity commission. The facility is equipped to assess the behaviour of steaming coal in milling, combustion (including flame stability, burnout and heat transfer), ash deposition and erosion, fly ash collection and gaseous emissions. The relevance of the results of the pilot testing to industrial practice was demonstrated during the calibration of the facility using four coals burnt in Australian power stations. The calibration coals were from the Tarong and Gladstone Power Stations in Queensland, tluja Power Station in Western Australia and Bayswater Power Station in New South Wales. Also an opportunity arose to visit an overseas power station to observe a full scale test burn using one of the early coals tested on a commercial basis in the combustion test facility. The calibration trials showed excellent agreement with industrial coal performance in t:orms of flame stability, turndown, carbon burnout and gaseous emissions. Encouraging correlations were also found in the case of furnace radiation, boiler deposits (slagging and fouling) and electrostatic precipitation. In the case of the last group the only real reservations about the correlations are due to the non-availability or qualitative nature of results collected around the power stations. In all cases there is a high degree of confidence in the facility's ability to predict the relative performance of different coals and in some cases direct numerical predictions can be Made.

Jan 1, 1987

By Thomas M. Barczak

Longwall roof behavior is characterized by strata displacements in both the face-to-waste (horizontal) and roof-to-f1oor (vertical) direc-tions. The roof support structure provides resistance to this motion by translation of these displacements into vertical and horizontal support loading. Observations indicate that the shield reacts with both a vertical and horizontal force to uniaxial convergence (displacement). However, there are different magnitudes depending on whether the displacement is vertical or horizontal. This makes it possible to use supports as monitors of strata activity and loading. The Bureau of Mines examined this behavior using a linear elastic model of the support structure with two degrees of freedom. Vertical and horizontal load reactions were related to associated displacement actions of the strata. This was done by determining the stiffness of the shield under controlled vertical and horizontal displacement motions in the Bureau's mine roof simulator. This report provides example predictions of strata convergence and isolation of horizontal support loading due to vertical roof convergence using the linear elastic shield model. The report also examines efforts to determine strata behavior by direct measurement of support displacement.

Jan 1, 1987

By J. Muir

This report focuses on minimum ore block sizes that are economically feasible to mine with the vertical crater retreat (VCR) method. In 1985, Homestake Mining Co. began a program to bring several small block VCR stopes on line. This report examines these experimental stopes, including design parameters, ground control, drill patterns, secondary blasting, and mucking. Cost and scheduling comparisons are made with mechanized cut-and-fill and open cut- and-fill methods.

Jan 1, 1987

By A. P. Van Wyk, G. Pirnaar

The effect of vanadium on the susceptibilities of chromium and chromium-nickel steels to reversible temper embritlement was evaluated. The steels investigated were approximately equivalent to steels of as 970 Grade 708A42 and as 970 Grade 817M40, the major difference being that molybdenum had been replaced by vanadium in various concentrations. It was found that the vanadium had a detrimental effect and, in al the concentrations tested, enhanced the susceptibility to reversible temper embritlement of both the chromium and the chromium-nickel steel. The detrimental role played by vanadium in reversible temper embritlement is explained by a consideration of the effect of vanadium carbide, as well as of free vanadium, in solid solution in ferrite.

Jan 1, 1987

Some Otago quartz veins display spectacular open-space filling textures indicative of shallow formation. Fluid inclusions in some such veins show that fluid immiscibility occured before or during mineral deposition. This immiscibility or 'boiling' occured at depths ranging from about 3 km to within as little as about 100 metres of the paleo-surface. Temperatures of mineralization range from 190 - 250¦C. Metals deposited in these veins include: Au(+Ag), Hg, Sb and As. Hydrothermal alteration is confined to minor silicifation of immediate wall-rock schist, less than about two metres from the veins. These veins have some similarities to classical epithermal systems elsewhere in the world, although wall-rock alteration is much less developed in Otago. From analogy to these classical epithermal systems, it is speculated that gold mineralisation may be found beneath Otago stibnite and cinnabar localities.

Jan 1, 1987

By Michael D. Fenton

The very modest-sized mineral industry of Afghanistan was burdened for another year with problems of internal strife occassioned by the presence of Soviet armed forces. Despite this, production of the few traditional commodities continued, and the mineral industry moved to develop additional mines and plants for both traditional and new products with considerable technical and construction assistance from the U.S.S.R. Among the limited range of mineral commodities for which production was reported, there were no startling changes between 1984 and 1985. Production of both coal and natural gas advanced only slightly, despite substantially higher 5-year plan goals, and cement output was down marginally. Probably the most significant development in 1985 was the Possibility that mine and/or smelter production of copper was initiated during the year.

Jan 1, 1987

By Price B. D, Staunton W. P

The Mineral Science Laboratory of the Government Chemical Laboratories has recently investigated various procedures for the analysis of the platinum group metals (PGMs). This investigation covered a number of methods for the extraction and preconcentration'of the PGMs from a wide range of geological materials. The nickel sulphide extraction technique proved to be overall the most applicable procedure. Flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS), electrothermal atomisation atomic absorption spectroscopy (ETA-AAS), inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) were examined for their suitability in analysing platinum group metals in solution. ETA-AAS and ICP-MS proved to be the instruments of choice due to their low detection limits.

Jan 1, 1987

By A. Christlo

Short circuit detection in 1984 involved nine inspectors for production rates of 43,000 tpa. Trials indicated the feasibility of applying cell voltage monitoring to short circuit detection and improving operational efficiency. A computerised cell voltage monitoring system was commissioned in February 1986, to read voltages from 648 cells. The system incorporates 16 evenly distributed work face units which communicate with a central computer system. Provision has been made in the computer program for the automatic adjustment of cell reference voltages. This allows for the effect of polarization and other process variables which might other wise interfere with short circuit detection. The work face units can continue to work independently for several days should this become necssary. Current efficiencies have been maintained and the number of inspectors reduced from nine to five.

Jan 1, 1987

By L. P. Fatti

An important feature affecting the classification of a remotely sensed scene is that the data are, in general, spatially correlated. Various approaches are discussed towards incorporating the correlation between neighbouring pixels when they are classified on the basis of their spectral reflectance data.

Jan 1, 1987

Over the last five years the :forward momentum in the Australian resources sector has been dominated by gold production and exploration companies. While reporting of exploration results to shareholders and Stock Exchanges has generally been detailed and responsible, the standards of reporting ore reserves still leaves much to be desired in terms of contemporary investor expectations. Australian gold ore reserve reporting practices are critically examined and suggestions are made as to how gold mining companies can enhance stock market recognition by investors through more informative and useful Reporting.

Jan 1, 1987

By F. N. Kissell

The Bureau of Mines used sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer gas to evaluate the effectiveness of gob ventilation and/or sealing practices at three coal mines, each having different problems associated with their mined-out areas. The purpose of these ventilation studies was to better understand whether current techniques employed for ventilation or sealing are successful at minimizing the potential for gob fires and explosions. The work performed at each mine is discussed: One is a longwall operation that uses ventilation to carry off hazardous gases, and two are room-and-pillar operations, each with far different concerns, that seal off the gobs to isolate them from the main mine ventilation. In all cases, employment of the Bureau's SF6 tracer gas technique resulted in answers to questions raised by the mine operators concerning the effectiveness of their gob ventilation or sealing practices in preventing mine fires.

Jan 1, 1987

By Harry R. Price, Keith M. Swaffar

The Northeast Raw Water Tunnel transports untreated water to the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department's (DWSD) Northeast Water Plant where it is treated and distributed. The occurrence of a subsidence area which was attributed to the tunnel prompted the DWSD to have the tunnel investigated. After an extensive historical and geotechnical investigation, two access shafts were constructed along the alignment in the vicinity of the subsidence. Following completion of the shafts, the subsidence area was inspected in the wet prior to dewatering the tunnel. Upon the completion of dewatering, a dry inspection was performed. During the dry inspection, an area of significant distress was encountered where sand and silt were boiling into the tunnel along with large volumes of groundwater. This distressed area was located 800m (1/2 mile) north of the original subsidence area. The tunnel was immediately refilled with water and an emergency repair program was planned and implemented. As a result of the distressed nature of the secondary tunnel liner, dewatering of the tunnel could not be performed until the secondary liner and the surrounding soils were stabilized. This paper presents a case history of both the investigation and the repairs of the Northeast Raw Water Tunnel including the various grouting and unique tunnel stabilization methodologies which were utilized.

Jan 1, 1987

By Eva B. Kisvarsanyi

An Early Proterozoic orogenic terrane of metasedimentary and metaigneous rocks underlies Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. Middle Proterozoic epizonal terranes of anorogenic granite and rhyolite, a known metallogenic province partly exposed in southeastern Missouri, overlap the orogenic terrane on the south. These Proterozoic terranes, covered by less than 1,000 meters of Phanerozoic strata, contain a virtually untapped source of mineral wealth and are one of the last frontiers for geologic exploration in the continen-tal United States. Petrographic study of subsurface samples is a powerful tool in the identification of favorable host rocks for a variety of ore deposits.

Jan 1, 1987