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By Thomas D. Kaufmann

Introduction What drives the price of gold? Supply and demand, of course. But in ways far different from the forces that drive the prices of other major metals, such as steel, aluminum, and copper. Gold, in fact, is one of the few commodities where both buyers and sellers are happy when the price goes up. Current production, production costs, and variations in production have little influence on its price. Gold inventories are so tremendous that current production has small impact on the amounts available to the market at any time. Worldwide gold inventory and production The world's inventories seem to be between 78 and 98 kt (2.5 and 3 billion oz). Since biblical times, the gold miners of the world have produced about 98 kt (3 billion oz), mostly in this century. Only small amounts have been thrown away and most of it - more than 78 kt (2.5 billion oz) - remain in bullion, coins, or jewelry. About 40% is held by central banks and other governmental authorities, 30% by private individuals as bullion or coins, and about 30% as jewelry. Except for some of the jewelry and the few industrial applications, this inventory is constantly available in marketable form at a price. By comparison, gold production is indeed small. The US Bureau of Mines estimates that the world produced 1.5 kt (50 million oz) of gold in 1986. Consequently, production increased world inventories by only 2%. Variations in production have a negligible or very short-term effect on the supply and, consequently, on the markets for gold. Although South Africa mines about 40% to 50% of the world's annual production, continuing labor strife there does not seem to have ruffled gold prices. Determining gold's price Gold prices, however, do determine cutoff grades in the mines and, thus, do influence production. Nonetheless, changes in production have little impact on the inventory supply. Consequently, it has small influence on the price of gold on the market. With a fairly stable supply, price changes are driven by changes in its demand. Unlike other metals, very little of the demand for gold comes from industry. Dental, electronic, and other industrial uses for gold consume less than 46.6 t/a (1.5 million oz per year). It would be safe to assume that such uses are less than 124 t/a (4 million oz per year) for the entire world. Variations in the 124 t (4 million oz), compared to a supply of 78 kt (2.5 billion oz) of supply can have only a negligible effect. Production net of industrial uses adds perhaps 1% annually to world inventories. This could, in time, affect markets. The increase, however, is mostly absorbed by population growth - more people wanting to own gold - and by gold being put in more attractive forms, such as coins. As an ancient Lydian king discovered, minting bullion permits

Jan 9, 1987

By G. W. Heunisch

G.A. Carmody and L.B. Anderson We wish to comment on the paper by G.W. Heunisch (MINING ENGINEERING, January 1987), which raised several important points regarding treatment of acidic waste waters. This paper confirms, in part, tests carried out by Allyn Corp. Allyn is the manufacturer of the proprietary product Alka-Ment, one of the materials that Heunisch tested. The first point is the extreme sensitivity of the sedimentation rate on the nature of the treatment material used. This apparently results from differences in nucleation of the metal hydroxides, and is consistently higher for Alka-Ment. This decreased sludge volume is also observed when Alka-Ment is combined with flocculants, such as organic polymers (see Table 1). Our second point is to emphasize that Heunisch's work shows how dependent the sludge volume is on pH. It is common practice to overtreat AMD by raising pH to 9 or 10. This practice, in addition to being wasteful of material, actually decreases the density of the resulting sludge, probably by creating charged particles that do not readily coalesce. When treating with Alka-Ment, we recommend that the treatment be monitored by testing both pH and dissolved iron. For both tests, it is important to allow adequate time to elapse between treatment and measurement, so that dissolution of alkali, aerobic oxidation of iron, and precipitation of the metal hydroxides are nearly complete. Our tests have indicated that from 30 minutes to one hour is commonly required. Only in this way can a minimum pH be attained, with adequate treatment, denser sludge, and lower treatment rates achieved. Thirdly, Heunisch correctly recognizes that ASTM titration of Alka-Ment does not reflect the true treatment value available in a unit of Alka-Ment. Our work at Allyn indicates this is a most important consideration when evaluating various materials for the treatment of acidic waste waters. While we were unaware of Mr. Heunisch's work, we welcome comparisons between Alka-Ment and any competitive products readily available for field use. Allyn has hundreds of hours of laboratory and field data we are ready to share with interested parties treating acidic waste water.

Jan 9, 1987

The introduction of computer technology to the mining industry has produced many benefits for the mining engineer. The most significant is the dramatic increase in productivity realized by the individual user. This is important during times of competitive market conditions. Software for the minerals and energy industries has evolved substantially over the past decade. But even today it remains difficult to find a system that features the flexibility and integration capabilities to effectively (and cost-effectively) handle the needs of professionals in each phase of the mining industry - from exploration to reclamation. Several national software developers are now addressing this challenge. One Denver-based company, MINEsoft Ltd., offers a software package that is currently being used in each phase of the mining industry. The basic technology used in MINEsoft's database management system was developed in the 1960s. But during these early years of the computer industry, most of the technology was available only on mainframe computers, and then only as separate entities. MINEsoft's system unifies these various systems in one package that can be used on most computers manufactured today. Database Management System TECHBASE is a flexible, integrated database management system designed specifically for technical applications. The system features a database manager with no practical limit to the amount of data it can store, retrieve, and manipulate, according to the company. TECHBASE in¬cludes Applications Packages (TAPs) designed to meet the needs of professionals in a host of industries. Clients use the TECH BASE system to prepare many reports, including important EPA information. The package reduces data to a manageable level and enables users to increase productivity with a smaller staff. Mining engineers no longer need to do things by hand. What used to be a day's work can be accomplished in an hour or two. Exploration "Using the TECHBASE system to generate maps has probably saved us the expense of three or four draftsmen," says Ralph Fitch, regional manager and senior staff geologist with Chevron Resources in Portland, ME. "The system has great flexibility. You can treat it much like a spreadsheet. If you are halfway through with a particular project, the system allows you to add fields and calculations with ease but without starting over." Fitch uses TECHBASE for the "straightforward" plotting of results and generation of geochemical and geophysical profiles. "In exploration," he says, "these are the two key elements ... the generation of maps and data profiles. The system allows you to plot as many elements and variables in these areas that you like." Other aspects are important, too, says Fitch, including drill hole sections. "We use all the basic capabilities the system provides in the complete package," he explains. "When shopping for a system, TECHBASE was clearly dedicated to exploration in the

Jan 9, 1987

By Libby R. Ricafort, Victorio V. Pato, R. S. Pizarro

Introduction Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corp. (ACMDC) started gold production at its Masbate gold mine early in 1980. This involved an open-pit mine and a 3.5-k/d (3850-stpd) carbon-in-pulp processing facility (Pizzaro and Antonio, 1981). When this operation started, the mine began stockpiling sub-grade milling material averaging 1 g/t (0.029 oz per st) gold. Furthermore, geologists estimated that there were additional low grade reserves within the ultimate pit limits. These amounted to 2.4 Mt (2.6 million st) with an average grade of 1.1 g/t (0.03 oz per st) gold. The success of low cost heap leaching prompted an investigation to determine if this tech¬nique would be applicable for the low grade Masbate ore. The findings were favorable and a series of laboratory tests were undertaken. These tests indicated the amenability of this subgrade milling ore to heap leaching. Depending on ore size, gold extractions of more than 60% were obtained. To further define operating parameters for a commercial heap leaching plant, a 400-t (440-st) batch pilot plant was built and operated. These test results were used to design the first commercial heap leaching plant in the Philippines. One design concern was the control of solutions during the rainy season. Due to the material's low grade, every effort was made to minimize capital and operating costs. To this end, surplus mining equipment from the copper operations of ACMDC and used machinery in the crushing circuit were considered. Location: The Masbate gold heap leaching operations are located on the northeastern part of Masbate Island, Philippines. This is about 480 km (300 miles) south-east of Manila. Climate: The climate is moderate with two distinct periods. The dry season runs from January through June, and the rainy season extends from July through December. During the wet season, the rainfall at the mine site averages 300 mm/m (11.8 in. per month) for a total of about 2000 mm/year (78 in. per year). However, heavy downpours in excess of 100 mm/h (4 in. per hour) can occur. Geology: Four distinct rock types have been identified in the pit area. They are tuffaceous agglomerates, andesitic agglomerates, metasedimentary rocks, and hornblende augite andesitic porphyry. The tuffaceous agglomerate occupies the northern and western flanks of the mine. Andesitic agglomerates are localized distinctly in the central portion of the volcanic plug within the mine site. The eastern boundary of the mine is occupied by metasedimentary rocks, whereas, the hornblende augite andesitic porphyry occurs as an intrusive within the andesitic agglomerate and tuffaceous agglomerate. Some areas of the pit contain high proportions of clay minerals, requiring an agglomeration step in the flowsheet. This ensures satisfactory percolation through the heaps. Ore characteristics: Gold and silver are microscopically dis-

Jan 9, 1987

By R. Timothy McCrum

It is not often that the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management, Office of the Solicitor, and Interior Board of Land Appeals (IBLA) jointly act to do the mining industry a good turn. That happened, however, in the recent decision, Schlosser v. Pierce, 92 IBLA 109 (1986). It was ruled that the theorized "independent mine requirement" was not a part of the discovery standard for mining claim validity under the 1872 Mining Law. The phrase "independent mine requirement" would require the mineral reserves within the boundaries of each individual mining claim in a claim group to support an independent economic mining operation. This, without regard to the fact that reserves on adjacent claims could be mined in a group operation, resulting in greatly reduced mining and marketing costs per ton of ore. Such a rule would render invalid under the 1872 Mining Law mining claims for almost all low-grade, high-tonnage, commercially valuable mineral deposits. Until the Schlosser case, no judicial or administrative decision had addressed the issue of the independent mine requirement. Nonetheless, a series of Interior decisions in the 1970s implied such a rule. Even the Rocky Mountain Mineral Law Foundation reluctantly concluded in 1984 that, "each claim to be valid must be capable of being operated at a profit independently of any other claim," the Foundation did criticize the rule as "excessively stringent" and urged the adoption of a "more realistic rule." Fortunately, the IBLA did just that in Schlosser when it ruled that the "application of a requirement that each claim be independently capable of being mined and marketed at a profit is rejected," 92 IBLA at 134. Now, a year after the 1986 decision, there remains some unwarranted confusion over the issue resolved in, and the meaning of, the Schlosser decision. There is no need for this confusion. The Interior Department's decision is a clear and legally sound victory for the mining industry. Grazing rights vs. mining claims The Schlosser case was an unusual mining claim contest. A private contest was brought before the Interior Department. Schlosser was a federal grazing lessee and surface owner. He filed against Pierce, the locator of a group of mining claims for bentonite over the same lands. At a hearing before interior's administrative law judge (alj), Schlosser's counsel began laying the foundation for the independent mine requirement. Counsel asked the mining claimant's expert whether he would go through the permitting procedure, road building, and reclamation just to mine the amount of bentonite on any one claim in the group. Schlosser's counsel proceeded with this line of questioning for each of the 16 claims in the group. Pierce's mining expert testified that the tonnages of mineral on any individual claim could not be mined, processed, and marketed at a profit if only one individual claim was considered. However, if the claims in the group were operated jointly, all the mineral could be mined, processed, and marketed at a profit.

Jan 8, 1987

By P. R. Dugan

Sulfur removal from high sulfur coal has several objectives including: a) reduction of the atmospheric load that contributes to the problem of acid precipitation; b) reduction of ash, which contributes to decreased energy transfer in boilers, as well as ash disposal; and c) alleviation of the social and economic dislocations reluted to uneven geographical distribution of sulfur in coal reserves. Cost in relation to the value of refined coal will govern the development of an emerging coal refining industry. Estimation of the premium paid by power companies for coal with a low sulfur content is a good estimate of the value that will be added as the result of refining. Estimates of premiums paid in 1984 are $28.65/t ($26 per st) for reduction of total sulfur from 3’% to 1% S and greater than $28.65/t ($26 per st) for removal below 1% sulfur.

Jan 8, 1987

By Steve O. Green

Introduction The US coal mining industry is in the midst of a serious economic crisis. To overcome increased operating costs, operators must take advantage of technological advancements in mining systems and equipment. A relatively new concept available to underground operators is that of extending the cutting depth for continuous mining machines (continuous miners). This system is referred to as deep-cut mining, and may be described as mining cuts to depths greater than the standard 6 m (20 ft). Productivity is increased through the reduction in continuous miner tram time since the machine stays longer in each working face. To successfully implement a deep-cut mining system, three problems must be overcome: Exposing personnel to unsupported roof, methane removal, and controlling respirable dust. Remote control cutting The solution to the unsupported roof problem is remote control. Recent advances in remote operation, especially in radio remote controls, have resulted in what is generally accepted as a safe and reliable tool. By installing remote control on the continuous miner, the operator and helper can now be stationed in a supported area. This allows for improved visibility while cutting coal. With this in mind, the limiting factor now becomes the position of the haulage equipment operator. North River No. 1 uses Joy 21SC shuttle cars and Jeffrey 4110 diesel ramcars. These cars are pulled against the bumper of the continuous miner. Thirteen meters (43 ft) can be cut with the shuttle car and 14 m (45 ft) with the Ramcar before the operator of the car is inby permanent supports. By loading away from the bumper, about 1.5 m (5 ft) can be added, bringing total cut depths up to 14.5 and 15 m (48 and 50 ft), respectively. Methane removal The second problem involves methane removal, and the line curtain-to-face distance. In other words, how to maintain the line curtain to allow sufficient ventilation to remove methane and not expose workers to unsupported roof. The solution, in most cases, is to use a blowing-type ventilation system. Unlike the exhausting system that, to be effective, must be installed within 3 m (10 ft) of the working face, the blowing system can be effective at greater distances from the face. Numerous studies have documented the advantages of a blowing-type ventilation system over an exhausting system. Furthermore, a blowing system can be significantly improved by in¬creasing the velocity of the air delivered without increasing the volume of air. With this greater ventilation efficiency, it is possible to secure ventilation plan approval from the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) for a greater curtain set-back distance. This eliminates the need for personnel to travel inby permanent supports to extend the face brattice. The distance from the face MSHA will approve, however, is on a mine-by-mine basis. MSHA will evaluate the particular mine's face methane liberation rates, along with the specific proposals regarding face ventilation volumes and velocities. Dust control The third problem is controlling respirable dust. This is actually a result of the solution to the second problem. In the blowing system, while mining on the slab cut, both the continuous miner and haulage units are located on the dusty side of the line curtain (Fig. 1). In the early 1970s, underground operators virtually abandoned this system, in order to comply with the 2 mg/m3 (0.87 gr per cu ft) federal dust standards. The blowing face curtain did offer increased face ventilation efficiency. With that, greater curtain-to-face distances were also

Jan 8, 1987

By H. Richard Eisenbeis, Donna M. Watkins

Many technical professionals (tp)* desire to occupy upper level management positions. But career paths for most scientists and engineers do not extend beyond their specific disciplines. This is unfortunate. Our technical frontiers are expanding so rapdily that it is difficult, if not impossible, to make sound top management decisions without understanding the technical complexities involved. Technical professionals often are not considered for upper level management positions because they lack the managerial and interpersonal skills necessary to become successful administrators. You've heard this before, but a key component of these skills is the ability to communicate. Technical professionals are often unable to communicate as well as they should with nontechnical professionals and nonprofessionals within the organizations that employ them. Communication is important for managerial success Communication is the network of interactions whereby knowledge and understanding are conveyed from one social set to another (Flippo and Munsinger, 1982). In order to be successful, managers must not only be "good" communicators, they must be "effective" communicators as well. Good communication occurs when managers are able to formulate and transmit their messages in such a way that they are received and understood. Effective communication goes one step further: It occurs when recipients accept messages as legitimate and respond to these messages in the manner desired. Before promotion into upper level positions, managers must have developed organizational skills (planning, decision making, organizing, and controlling) and interpersonal skills (directing, influencing, and motivating). Applying these skills effectively is difficult without a highly refined ability to communicate. Effective communication, then, is basic to managerial success. Nowhere, perhaps, has the importance of being able to communicate effectively been emphasized more than in Mintzberg's landmark study of managerial roles (Mintzberg, 1973). Mintzberg's results indicate that executives typically averaged 36 written and 16 verbal contacts a day. These contacts were both important and trivial. They generally occurred in a random manner. Time spent on each varied. Scheduled meetings averaged over an hour. Desk work, telephone calls, and unscheduled meetings required an average of 15 minutes or less. Why technical professionals have difficulty communicating Three reasons why technical professionals do not communicate well are: • The work motivational patterns and personal attitudes of technical professionals are not conducive to effective communication. • Students in technical professions are not encouraged by educational institutions to develop their communication skills. • Organizations do not insist that all technical professionals be able to communicate in the language of business. The work motivational patterns of most technical professionals are indicative of internals and high achievers (Hunt, Salisbury, and Whittington, 1968). As internals, they believe they control their own destinies. As high achievers, they believe that task accomplishment is a primary indicator of success. To ensure a task is completed in the manner desired, tp's attempt to structure and define work situations so they alone are responsible for results. TPs consider the task accomplished when they, and perhaps other tp's, are satisfied with the results. From the tp's perspective, the task may have been completed. From a communication standpoint, two other factors may apply. First, solving the problem required very little interaction (and thus, communication) with others. Second, the tp's, considering the task accomplished, have little concern for how their "technical" answers will be translated to nontechnical persons needing

Jan 8, 1987

By Garrett R. Hyde, Aleksandar Stojsic

Introduction Economic pressures in the international marketplace have spurred advances in almost every facet of flotation. New developments have occurred in flotation chemicals, flotation machines, and in the application of automated process control technology to grinding and flotation. Many of these advances are the results of concerted efforts to apply the knowledge obtained from basic flotation research over the past 15 to 20 years, to develop industrial technology for the more efficient separation of sulfide minerals in real ores. Mining company executives and equipment manufacturers are being called on to make decisions for incorporating some of this technology into present operations. This discussion is limited to two developments now at the stage of being engineered into industrial scale operations. They are control of the electrochemical environment or redox potential of the slurry, and control of bubble size in column flotation. Potential economic impacts are noted. Froth flotation Froth flotation makes use of differences in the surface properties of finely ground minerals to obtain separation. If the mineral surface is water repellent, the mineral particle will stick at the air-water interface of a bubble and float. If a mineral surface is not naturally water repellent, a chemical collector is added to the slurry to make it so. The collector must adsorb on, and make water repellent only the mineral to be recovered, not the gangue minerals. To achieve this degree of selective adsorption, chemical modifiers may have to be added to the slurry. Modifiers include pH regulators, activators, and depressants. Electrochemical control One of the most significant developments in recent years in the area of mineral processing technology is the recognition that collector adsorption of sulfide minerals is an electrochemical process. Consequently, flotation of these minerals depends on the electrochemical or redox potential of the system. Many of the modifiers used to control various flotation processes are actually potential controlling reagents. For example, the role of well known depressants, such as cyanide, sodium hydrosulfide, and sulfur dioxide, is essentially to

Jan 7, 1987

By J. P. Ferro, W. H. Stewart

Wet ground and dry muscovite mica continued to be the most commercially significant types of mica in the US. Canada's phlogopite mica and some US deposits of sericite mica have also contributed to the overall application of mica in a variety of industries. Mica's major end uses are paint, rubber, and construction material. Its value was about $30 million last year. The southern Appalachian Mountains weathered granitic bodies and pegmatites continued to be the primary US muscovite mica source. North Carolina production of mica as a coproduct of feldspar, kaolin, and lithium processing accounted for more than 60% of the total output. New Mexico, South Carolina, South Dakota, Georgia, and Connecticut accounted for the rest. Flake mica was also produced from mica schists in North Carolina and South Dakota. It is also being investigated in Ontario, Canada. Wet ground mica Wet ground mica was produced by four companies: KMG Minerals, Franklin Mineral Products, J.M. Huber Corp., and Concord Mica. KMG and Franklin Mineral Products accounted for more than 80% of the production. Wet ground mica is a highly delaminated platey powder used to reinforce solvent and aqueous system paints for increased weatherability, durability, and greater resistance to moisture and corrosive atmospheres. In plastics, it is an excellent filler and reinforcing agent, providing better dielectric properties, heat resistance, and added tensile and flexural strength. In the rubber industry, wet ground mica is used as a mold lubricant to manufacture molded rubber products, such as tires. It also acts as an inert filler that reduces gas permeability. Miscellaneous uses include additives to caulking compounds, foundry applications, lubricants, greases, silicone release agents, and dry powder fire extinguishers. Wet ground mica prices range from $353 to $496/t ($320 to $450 per st) fob plant. Specialty products may be higher, depending on customer requirements. Dry ground muscovite mica Dry ground mica was produced by nine companies: KMG Minerals, Unimin, US Gypsum, Mineral Industrial Commodities of America, Spartan Minerals Corp., Asheville Mica Corp., Deneen Mica Co., Pacer Corp., and J.M. Huber Corp. Dry ground mica's primary market is wallboard joint compound. Here, it is a functional extender that improves the physical properties and finishing characteristics of the mud. It is also used in various grades as a filler in asphalt products, enamels, mastics, cements, plastics, adhesives, texture paints, and plaster. Dry ground mica became popular as an additive in oil well drilling fluids, where the mica flakes platey nature helps seal the well bore, preventing circulating fluid loss. But oil's dramatic price drop and consequent curtailing of well drilling brought this once booming market to a virtual halt. Forecasters predict that this business will gradually pick up during the next few years and most current dry ground mica producers will again produce the oil well drilling material. Dry ground mica prices range from $110 to $420/t ($100 to $380 per st) fob plant. High quality sericite mica, sometimes referred to as an altered muscovite, was mainly produced by two US companies. Mineral Industrial Commodities of America and Mineral Mining Corp. have equivalent capacities of about 27 kt/a (30,000 stpy). The majority of the material produced was consumed by the joint compound industry. Minor uses are in paint and oil well drilling. The lack of ground sericite penetration into the traditional ground muscovite markets is attributed to high silica content, typically in excess of 20%, and a bulk density. Prices range from $88 to $187/t ($80 to $170 per st) fob plant. Phlogopite mica is a dark colored, magnesium bearing mica rarely found in the US. Suzorite Mica Corp., a division of Lacana Petroleum, mines a deposit in Quebec that is 80% to 90% phlogopite. The dark color has prevented the material's entry into the traditional paint markets. But the physical properties and high purity make it useful as a low-cost reinforcing filler in many plastics and several asphalt applications. Phlogopite mica is ground to several grades and may be treated with various surface coatings for use in plastics or coated with nickel for EMI/RFI shielding applications. Prices for phlogopite products range from $144 to $580/t ($104 to $580 per st) fob plant. As in recent years, production of domestic muscovite sheet - block, film, and splittings - remained insignificant. These resources are limited and uneconomic due to the high cost of hand labor required to process sheet mica in the US. Imports from India and Brazil were the primary sources of the estimated 1 kt (2.4 million lbs) valued at $2.5 million consumed by US electronic and electrical equipment manufacturers in 1986. Reserves As a feldspar, kaolin, and lithium industry coproduct, flake mica will continue to provide a large percentage of mica re- This summary of 1986 mica activity was received too late to be used in the June issue.

Jan 7, 1987

By Earl Rau

Introduction Will cogeneration be a major power source in the future? The location of electric power generating plants has changed. In 1900, more than 50% of electricity was generated by industrial plants. Since then, industrial plant generation of electricity greatly decreased to 17% in 1950 and to only 3% in 1980. Changing economics in electric power generating costs, though, may allow cogeneration to reverse this trend. Cogeneration has been defined as the simultaneous production of electric (mechanical) and thermal energy from a single energy source. Some applications are considered to be byproduct generation of electricity from industrial, thermal operations. Cogeneration is not new to the mining and minerals industry. Smelters and steel mills have used waste heat to generate electricity. Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 The potential for increased industrial cogeneration of electricity is related to the March 9, 1978 enactment of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA). The US Supreme Court ruled that PURPA is constitutional. The court upheld requirements that utilities interconnect to cogenerators. It also ruled that 100% of avoided costs be used as the guideline for electricity sales by a qualifying facility (QF) to a utility. The state of New York established a floor price $0.06/kWh for electricity sales from a QF to a utility. It is obvious, then, that a cogenerator must first establish price and then become a qualifying facility in order to sell electricity to a utility. Proposed cogeneration plants The estimated industrial cogeneration potential for the years 1986 to 2000 is 9500 to 25,000 MW. Industries represented in this cogeneration estimate are pulp and paper, petroleum, chemicals, food, textiles, rubber, plastics, steel, lumber and wood, cement, glass, metal fabrication, and industrial parks. A cogeneration plant has been proposed for the Union Carbide chemical plant in Institute, WV. A steam turbine/generator would be installed to replace the pressure-reducing valve in the 2.7 MPa (400 psig) header. Scott Paper Co., Mobile, AL, proposed a cogeneration plant using a coal- and wood-fired boiler and a turbine/generator to produce process steam and electric power. A cogeneration system has been proposed for a large oil refining plant. A pulverized coal boiler would produce high-pressure steam to operate a turbine, generator. The exhaust steam from the turbine will go to the process and an existing turbine. Kansas City, MO's Armour meat-processing plant has proposed a cogeneration plant. This proposal is to use a natural gas or oil-fired, gas-driven turbine and a generator. The waste heat from the gas turbine would go to a heat recovery boiler for use as process heat. Dade County, FL is implementing a central energy system to supply electricity, air conditioning, and domestic hot water for five buildings in downtown Miami. The cogeneration system is to provide flexibility, to optimize fuel use efficiency while serving the variable thermal demands. Generation of electricity from municipal waste is not considered to be a cogeneration process but is covered by PURPA. Special considerations are provided for waste/electric power generation to encourage the development of these systems. ?

Jan 7, 1987

By H. Lyn Bourne

This is the fifth annual tabulation of mineral royalty information. This tabulation, like the previous editions, includes all of the earlier data. There are also 60 new entries. In addition to royalty information, some entries show the cost of purchased reserves. Two articles relative to the evaluation of minerals reserves appeared in December, 1986. R.H. Paschall (In the Aggregate, ME, p 1139) wrote a good article, although it lacked specific royalty data. However, this author takes exception to two ideas in Paschall's column. Paschall contends that the royalty rate does not affect the mineral appraisal. This present author could not disagree more. Paschall also claims the location of an industrial mineral deposit is the only serious or practical caveat in comparing royalties. Comments received here from readers helped make the list of caveats that are cited each year. The readers will decide which factors influence the mineral value for their commodities of interest. Paschall's point about the relationship of the parties who are negotiating a royalty agreement is important and very well taken. The other article, written by William Vernon (Pit and Quarry, December 1986), gives a step-by-step process on how to conduct a mineral appraisal. The article cites three reasons for an appraisal: transfer rights; collateral for a loan; and taxation. A fourth reason is to establish adequate compensation for reserves lost through condemnation. This author has appeared in several court cases where compensation for loss of mineral reserves through condemnation required a mineral appraisal. Royalty rate becomes an important factor in the appraisal process, although the Pit and Quarry article refers to that part of the valuation equation as "profitability." Both articles were well written and are recommended reading for those interested in mineral valuations. The same caveats that have appeared in previous columns relative to factors that influence the value of reserves are restated. The data in the table serve as a general reference and are not intended to present an absolute scale of reserves costs. Several factors influence the value of any mineral commodity. The factors include: • location/transportation - especially significant for most industrial minerals; • market conditions both for the commodity and the company acquiring the right to mine; • quality or grade of the deposit as it reflects the amount of processing/beneficiation necessary to produce the finished product; and • legislative restrictions and conditions for mining a given material at a given site. These and other factors will significantly influence the cost of reserves. The table shows the range of royalties and the variations in the basis of computing the fees. In a few instances, it gives the cost of acquired reserves based on purchase price and quantitative estimates of the material in place. The table lists the commodity in column 1, and the subsequent columns give: • the location by state, US geographic area, or Canadian province ; • the cost - R for royalty and P for purchased cost; • the year in which the lease or purchase agreement occurred; and • comments or footnotes for more information. The cost column requires more explanation. The units may refer to cubic yards (/cu yd), cubic feet (/cu ft), short tons (/T), or acres (/A). 1 cu yd = 0.76 M2 1cuft = 0.28m3 1 st = 0.9072 t 1 acre - 0.4047 ha or m2

Jan 7, 1987

By C. Meyer, J. J. Eidel

C. W. Hunt I wish to register strong disagreement with the choices of drilling sites chosen by the Continental Scientific Drilling Committee, while endorsing the stated objectives. Of special significance is the lack of any site involving the metals most needed today in the US, while 9 to 13 km of drilling are allocated to gold and silver districts and 11 to 17 km to base metal (mainly copper) districts. Why is nothing proposed for platinum group or chromite? Is this because the committee did not know of such a site? If so, I offer such a site in California (see Fig. 1). The mineralization shown in Table 1 occurs in a large peridotite body in western Tehama County, CA. Petrography has demonstrated unequivocal evidence of migrated PGE deposited in peridotite and chromite of hypabyssal nature. Active diapirism (due probably to serpentine buoyancy) above a reactivated mantle to surface conduit marks the position of the conduit. Young explosion breccia cemented loosely by volcanic glass and tuff demonstrates the significance of the conduit as the prime source of the various emissions. Deep drilling could result in major metals discoveries as well as shedding light on the grand questions of platinum group mineralization. What role water has played in this occurrence is not yet certain; but chlorine and asphaltite have been detected in and adjacent to native PGM, suggesting a major role for water. The explosion breccia suggests that this excellent site could overlie entrapped geothermal steam.

Jan 6, 1987

By G. Coombs, L. Meade, J. Welshimer

Industrial Minerals commodity profiles are continued from May's Annual Review issue. Diatomite G. Coombs, Manville Sales Corp. Growth in US diatomite production continued to lag in 1986. The US Bureau of Mines estimated that 580 kt (640,000 st) were produced last year. This is a 1%0 growth over 1985. The cumulative growth from the 1982 low point is 4.4%. Present production, though, is still only 90% of the high tonnage of 1979. The industry will see increased competitive activity with the start-ups of two new mines and production facilities in California and Oregon. US production has come primarily from Lompoc, CA, Bassalt, Clark Station, and Lovelock, NV, and Quincy, WA. New production, probably with capacities of 45 kt/a (50,000 stpy) each, have started near Burney, CA, and Vale, OR. Eagle Picher's new, full-line filter aid and filler plant at Celatom, Vale, OR, was dedicated in August. The plant uses diatomite from the Celatom mining district in Juntura, OR. Grefco's new filter aid and filler plant near Burney, CA, was ready in July. It produced flux calcined products through a single kiln and can handle both bag and bulk shipments. The operations are in Shata County with the plant and mine at the same site. Manville Specialties Group is moving its Filtration and Minerals Division headquarters and research staffs to Lompoc, CA. The move is intended to strengthen response and performance by locating research, marketing, and production close together. Diatomite is processed in three methods: natural, calcined, and flux calcined. The natural is dried to remove water and is particle size classified. Calcined or straight calcined products have been sintered to modify particle size or permeability. Flux calcination, or flux sintering, has a stronger influence on permeability and also benefits color. The unique structure of diatomite is used in a range of particle sizes from fine paint fillers, to coarser filter aids, to granular aggregates. Dimension stone L. Meade, Geomapping Associates Ltd. 1986 was another good year for dimension stone production. The trend toward using marble, granite, limestone, sandstone, and slate has created an increasing demand. According to US Bureau of Mines 1986 estimates, 1.1 Mt (1.2 million st) of dimension stone, with a value of $173 million, was produced by 200 companies. This is an increase from 1985, where 220 companies produced 1 Mt (1.12 million st) valued at $172 million. The increased production volume and decreased unit value is due to the competition from imports. The net import reliance in 1986 was 68% compared to 62% in 1985. The value of imports was $374 million in 1986 versus $295 million the year before. In an effort to maintain their market share, domestic finishers, particularly in the granite industry, continued to upgrade plants and machinery during 1986. In addition, offshore dollars have financed a number of fabricating facilities in North America that will finish imported rough stock. It is hoped that this increased domestic production capability will capitalize on a devalued US dollar. The trend has been for growth in stone usage and market. This trend is continuing with increased public awareness and desire for natural stone in buildings. The area of greatest market growth is expected to be in residential and interior decorative stone usage. Use of sophisticated, automated equipment has made the cost more affordable. Now lobbies, foyers, and specialty rooms are being clad in stone. Dolomite J. Welshimer, National Lime & Stone Co. About three-quarters of dolomite production is used as construction aggregates and 10% to 20% is sold or used as an industrial mineral. Total limestone and dolomite consumed for chemical and metallurgical purposes is about 136 Mt/a (150 million stpy). Sales of industrial dolomitic products were somewhat stronger in 1986 than levels recorded in the early 1980s. Some of the sales' strength, however, can be attributed to reductions in the number of active mining and processing operations. The industry will probably undergo further consolidation by the end of this decade. This will be due primarily to the continued softening in demand by the steel industry. Dolomitic limestone deposits being mined for raw materials for the steel, glass, and refractory in¬dustries are generally 54% calcium carbonate and 45% magnesium carbonate by weight. Impurities composed of silicon, aluminum, iron, sulfur, and phosphorous, represent less than 1%. The heaviest concentration of high purity, surface mineable dolomite in the US is in northwestern Ohio. Crushed and sized dolomitic limestone is a basic raw material for the iron and steel industry. It is also used as feed stone or lime kilns. Soft-burned lime is a popular raw material for BOF steel production. It is also used extensively in insulating glass fiber manufacturing. A related material, hydrated

Jan 6, 1987

Two years ago, about the only US mining ventures that could turn even marginal profits were precious metals. In 1986, the price of gold dramatically increased, as did earnings from precious metals, mostly gold mines. First quarter results for 1987 show that gold will again be the most profitable type of mining in the US. All this money being made in gold resulted in many new mines being opened and hundreds of old workings being re-evaluated. The Society of Mining Engineers has put together a technical program to aid in developing precious metals mines. Small Mines Development in Precious Metals will take place Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1987 at Bally's Hotel, Reno, NV. For registration and hotel information see page 426 or contact Meetings Department, SME, P.O. Box 625002, Littleton, CO 80162-5002, 303-973-9550. Topics at this meeting will include Problems Facing Small Miners; Understanding Geology and Ore Reserves; Mining-Production Options to Maintain Competitiveness; Processing for Precious Metals; Financing and Economics that Work for Small Miners; and Understanding the Environmental and Permit Maze. Problems facing the small miner The small miner has found and started most of the productive mines in the world, says Alfred G. Hoyl, of Coal Fuels Corp., Rollinsville, CO. Hoyl will state his case for small mines development in the opening session of the program. He will make the point that government regulations must never restrict the small mine or miner. And the mining industry must be careful not to crowd out the independent miner. "To restrict small mining is to say to our young men and women entering the mineral industry `There is no place for you as an independent.' Small is a relative term and we must never feel that starting small will restrict our possibilities of becoming big." In the same session, David J. Starbuck, Starbuck Minerals Management, Mayer, AZ will take a look at why smaller precious metals mines are profitable. Mining companies have changed their perspective on reworking previously mined properties. They are looking at abandoned properties in older mining districts. The attitude is that smaller operations in these districts can be profitable with the present economic climate, more advanced technology, and better management. Small, independent mining companies may not have the same resources to draw from as the majors. But there are affordable technologies available that fit into the independents' budget. Betty Gibbs, of Gibbs Associates, Boulder, Co will explain how a personal computer can help a small operation to analyze data more effectively and respond quickly to changing conditions. Scenarios will be developed that will describe how PCs can be incorporated into all phases of an operation. Financial institutions are becoming more willing to consider venture capital for small precious metals mines, according to Stanley Dempsey, Denver Mining Finance Co., Denver, CO. This may be in the form of equity or debt, he says, but they want to receive assurances of the quality of the resource. And they will ask about the ore reserves. Next, the potential lender will want to know about the mining method and en¬vironmental regulations. Dempsey will discuss these requirements. Once a high grade gold mineralization is located and reserves proven, it must be evaluated to determine which recovery process is best suited for this deposit. Robert Martinez, Amselco Minerals, Ely, NV will evaluate processes for such a deposit located in Mexico. Heap leaching, vat leaching, and a carbon-in-pulp circuit are all viable options, he says. He will explain which recovery process proved to be the most economic. Other papers in the introductory session include How to Best Use Consulting Firms to Accelerate the Development Process, by H. Schreiber and R.P. Fronk, both of Behre Dolbear-Riverside, New York, NY. And W. Mayrsohn of Asamera Minerals, Denver, CO will present Marketing Fundamentals that Work for Small Mines. Understanding geology and ore reserves In the current scheme of fast-track exploration and mine development, insufficient time and thought is given to understanding the geology of a deposit as it relates to controls of mineralization and subsequent mine development, say D.S. Bolin and J.W. Rozelle, of Pincock, Allen & Holt,

Jan 6, 1987

By J. D. Morgan

Introduction In 1986, the US economy passed the $4 trillion mark. However, the value of domestically processed materials of mineral origin fell slightly to $240 billion. The value of metals produced from US ores was unchanged at $5.6 billion, as was recycled scrap at $4 billion, while the value of industrial minerals rose slightly to $17.9 billion. Consumer demand strongly affects mining and the US economy is relatively saturated with longlived products. Moreover, in recent years there has been a steady increase in consumer, mortgage, and federal debt, inhibiting new purchases of goods. Motor vehicles and housing are major traditional markets for mineral materials. However, the 242 million US citizens already possess 170 million licensed motor vehicles and 92 million dwelling units. In 1986, domestic motor vehicle production fell 3%, to 11.3 million units, while new housing starts rose slightly to 1.8 million units. Nearly all mineral commodities move relatively freely in world trade. As detailed in Figs. 1 and 2, in the last three decades world production of major mineral materials has greatly increased. At present, substantial excess productive capacity exists not only in the US but also in many other countries. Consequently, the US mineral industry is encountering increasing competition from other sources, along with increasing competition from newer, engineered materials. For example, US production of plas¬tics has risen from 900 kt (1 million st) in 1950 to 22.7 Mt (25 million st) in 1986 - on a volume basis significantly greater than steel. Plastics, too, are mineral-based materials, some 7% of petrochemicals going to their manufacture. 1986 saw increased calls for protection. But President Reagan, in his 1987 State of the Union Message and Economic Report to the Congress, reaffirmed adherence to a policy of free and fair trade. However, he stressed the need for increased efforts to open foreign markets to US exports and to increase competitiveness of US industry US imports of mineral-based minerals in 1986 were valued at $40 billion and exports at $24 billion. Strategic minerals As detailed in Fig. 3, imports supplied a significant proportion of total US consumption of several important materials, including many classified as "strategic and critical." There were no changes in stockpile policy during the year. Congress debated the President's 1985 proposals to reduce stocks of World War II-type materials and to focus more on high technology materials needed for the cutting edge of future military material. But no final action resulted. However, Congressional concern about apartheid in South Africa did result in increasing pressure to limit imports of South African minerals. Meanwhile, the National Critical Materials Council in the Executive Office of the President intensified its efforts to be better able to advise the President. The Defense Production Act provides authority for priorities and allocations, supply expansions, voluntary agreements, and

Jan 5, 1987

Continued market pressure on the US coal industry was the overriding factor affecting developments in underground mining in 1986. An oversupply of coal in the spot market kept prices low throughout the year and caused a number of operations to close their doors. Operators stepped up their efforts to improve productivity at existing operations. They made technology advances and improved their relations with employees. A continuing market-related development during 1986 was the divesting of coal properties and operations by major oil companies, which were faced with economic pressures in both the oil and coal industries. Further increases in contract mining production resulted as some larger operators were unable to compete in a tough economic environment. Longwall mining is still seen by many as the technology that will provide the necessary productivity to remain cost-effective. But the number of active faces in the US declined in 1986, as reserves were depleted and economics forced some closures. At the first Longwall USA meeting in June, much attention was placed on improved technology, as electro-hydraulic controls for roof supports gained acceptance. Other recent developments include shearer initiation of roof supports, automatic horizon control for shearer drums, and collection and storage of machine data for predicting maintenance requirements. The government and academic communities continued their research on dust control at longwall faces. Jankowski, Kissel, and Daniel, (October 1986, Mining Engineering), gave an overview of progress in longwall dust control. And Mukherjee, Singh and Jayarman (November 1986, Mining Engineering), recommended design guidelines for improving water spray systems for dust control. Surface subsidence Increasing attention is being given to surface subsidence. This is primarily because of longwall mining and the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act. Improved methods of prediction of surface subsidence, especially computerized methods, are being continually developed. Mining engineering faculty at major universities such as Virginia are helping develop public policy and regulations concerning subsidence. As part of this effort, Unrug and Johnson identified major subsidence areas of Western Kentucky. Peng and Chen (February 1986, Mining Engineering), gave an overview of history and research of surface subsidence. And Elifrits and Aughenbaugh, (February 1986, Mining Engineering), discussed effects of moisture variations and overburden on subsidence. This research culminated in a Symposium on Surface Subsi¬dence at the SME 1986 Fall Meeting in St. Louis and the 2nd Workshop on Surface Subsidence at West Virginia University. Ground control in coal mining continued to be an item of major research interest. Some 30 papers were presented at the 5th International Conference on Ground Control in Mining at West Virginia University. And six sessions were related to coal mining at the 27th US Symposium on Rock Mechanics at the University of Alabama. At the 4th Annual Workshop, Generic Mineral Technology Center, Mine Systems Design and Ground Control emphasized efforts of the participating universities to improve ground control. Peng and Chiang summarized results of studying support capacity and roof behavior with longwall shield supports. And Unrug, Johnson, and Nandy analyzed the process of deterioration of shale roof in a case study of a room-and-pillar coal mine. The importance of geologic conditions in determining mining productivity is receiving increased attention in coal mine design in the US. Mullenex related, through case studies, the benefits to be derived through analyzing the depositional system of coalbeds as an integral part of mine design. Improved technology in this area was related by Lloyd, Semborski, and Stolarczyk. They discussed a case study of using radio imaging to indicate coal-seam discontinuities in advance of mining. Improved coal mining technology in general is being researched more heavily, to help improve US coal competitiveness. However, much of this research and development process has yet to be widely implemented. Equipment manufacturers are devoting more resources to development of continuous-haulage systems, mobile roof-supports, mine-monitoring systems, and predictive-maintenance systems using computers to extract machine data.

Jan 5, 1987

By R. J. Anderson, A. V. Castelli

In 1986, United States' barite production fell 48.9%, consumption - sold or used by grinding plants - was off 47.3%, and imports were down 63.8%. Meanwhile, world mine production decreased 29.6%, according to the US Bureau of Mines. However, value of US-produced barite FOB mine increased 46.51%, according to USBM figures. The declared value CIF US port of all imported unground barite decreased from $41.94/t ($46.23 per st) to $39.02/t ($43.01 per st). Nevada continued to be the leading US producer of barite with 69% of the total. It is followed by Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, and California. The USBM estimates that 65% of the barite mined was used as a weighting agent in drilling fluids. The remaining 35% was used in the production of barium chemicals and as a filler. Most of the production from Missouri, Georgia, and Tennessee was used in the non-oilfield sector. This sector made up a larger percentage of the US produced barite in 1987 than it did in 1986, increasing the overall value per ton of barite. Barite consumption was at its lowest since 1963. It is estimated that 80% of the barite was consumed in the drilling fluid market. The remaining 20% was used in barium chemicals, glass, and as filler in plastics and paper. The decline of barite used in drilling fluid followed the decline in the average number rotary rigs operating - 964 versus 1968 in 1985. This was the lowest average number of rotary rigs operating since 1971. The non-oilfield market was up 5.3% in 1986. This increase can be attributed to the increased use as a filler in plastics. Imports of crude barite, though down nearly two-thirds, still made up 65% of the barite consumed in the US. China was the leading exporter to the US with 58%, followed by India, 15.4%; Morocco, 11%; Thailand, 5.4%; Mexico, 4.6%; Chile, 3.9%; and Ireland, 1.7%. Less than 1% of the imported ore was used in the nonoilfield sector. Imports of ground barite dropped from 64.4 kt (71,000 st) to 19.8 kt (21,800 st) in 1986. Of this amount, 14.1 kt (15,500 st) were used in drilling fluids in 1986 and the remainder for non-oilfield use. During 1986, more of the grinding plants supplying the drilling fluid market were closed. Dresser Magcobar and IMCO Services, a Halliburton company, formed M-I Drilling Fluids Co. Mine production in the US will probably decrease in 1987 due to the lower cost of imported ore. No significant change is expected in the drilling fluid market. The average number of operating rotary rigs is estimated at 950 in 1987 versus 965 in 1986. The nondrilling fluid markets (chemicals, glass, and filler) will follow the overall US economy. Bauxite and alumina R. J. Anderson, Ohio State University US bauxite production in 1986 dropped to a pre-World War II level, continuing a decline that began a decade ago. 1986 production totaled 450 kt (496,000 st), compared to 674 kt (743,000 st) in 1985. World production of bauxite also decreased in 1986. This reflected the soft market in alumina, aluminum, and related products. Total mine production worldwide came to 79 Mt (87 million st), down from 85 Mt (94 million st) in 1985. For the sixteenth consecutive year, Australian production of bauxite led all other sources. No other country approached the 28 Mt (31 million st) mined in Australia in 1986, despite a 4.4-Mt (4.9-million st) drop in its output from 1985. Other major producers in 1986 were: Guinea 11 Mt (12 million st), Brazil, 6.5 Mt (7 million st), Jamaica, 6.5 Mt (7 million st), and Suriname 2.8 Mt (3 million st). Despite weakness in world demand for bauxite, Venezuela, heretofore an alumina producer, is now pushing development of a new mining venture near the western border of the state of Bolivar. Plans call for barging bauxite down the Orinoco River to the Ciudad Guyana alumina plant, a distance of 650 km (400 miles).

Jan 5, 1987

By Kenneth J. Hartman

Introduction The term kaolin is derived from kauling, a Chinese word meaning high ridge. This was the name of a hill in China where kaolin was first mined several hundred years ago (Murray, 1976). Other common names used for kaolin include clay and China Clay. Clay technically has a broader meaning and could refer to bentonite and ball clay as well as kaolin. China clay, as a descriptive term, apparently results from kaolin's origin. But it could also be due to a significant historical use in ceramic applications. The terms kaolin and clay will be used interchangeably in this analysis because of the common practice of using these terms in the paper industry. Major reasons for kaolin's wide-spread industrial usages center on kaolinite's physical features of good color, low viscosity, and inertness. Kaolin is described as a hydrous aluminum silicate with an approximate composition of 2H2O • A12O3 . 2SiO2. A new version of the product is calcined clay with modified hydration content. It is gaining widespread use. Components of any particular kaolin, in addition to alumina and silica, are viewed as impurities. The more values deposits and, hence, higher priced kaolin products are those of the highest purity. Kaolin is the most widely used mineral in paper manufacturing throughout the world. Key production centers are located in England and the US. Most of the Tatter's production is located in Georgia. The key markets for Georgia kaolin are paper markets - both paper coating and paper filling. These paper markets extend throughout the world, not just to domestic markets. In fact, export markets are second in size only to domestic paper markets for Georgia's producers of kaolin. Just as the paper markets are important for kaolin producers, kaolin is an important raw material for papermakers. Compared to the other three major pigments - titanium dioxide, calcium carbonate, and talc - kaolin's 1984 tonnage for papermaking represented 85% of the total. Even though titanium dioxide's unit value is much higher, kaolin's estimated total 1984 value still represented 51% of total dollars spent by papermakers for the four pigments. Kaolin grades- are briefly defined using particle size and brightness as principal means of classification. Likewise, grades of papers using kaolin are defined using the American Paper Institute's guidelines. From these definitions, associated kaolin grades used in particular grades of paper are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on how qualities desired in certain papers are achieved through the use of specialized kaolin grades. World kaolin production World production statistics (Coope, 1979; Table 1) demonstrate that kaolin is produced in many areas of the world. About 60% of production is centered in the US and England (Fig. 1). Deleting Eastern Europe's produc-

Jan 4, 1987

By Wayne N. Marchant

Introduction The issue of coal mining safety plays an important role in the United States' growing dependence on coal to supply its future needs. This article will address the federal government's role, principally the US Bureau of Mines, in meeting this challenging growth and demand while reducing the social and economic costs attributed to injuries and fatalities in underground mining. Some interesting facts and projections with respect to the nation's energy picture will be discussed. This includes the distribution of its reserves and the projected role of coal in the energy and economics of the nation's future. Underground mining will continue to be an important means of providing this coal. The author will discuss how the Bureau of Mines' research program addresses the problems of health and safety that grow out of the demand for more coal. Future projections First, a synopsis of salient facts and projections concerning the US's situation with respect to energy and the economy. Figure 1 depicts the relative quantities of recoverable energy reserves in the United States by their type. Most people are aware of the nation's use of oil. We hear a lot about natural gas. And we are aware of the controversy over the use of nuclear energy. But, while looking at Fig. 1, the question becomes, "Where will our fuel to meet the demand for energy in the future most certainly have to come from?" With 82% of the nation's recoverable fuel reserves being coal, the answer is irrefutable. Coal will be that source. Figure 2 is the present market for coal. It shows that 77% of the coal mined goes to supply electric utilities. Therefore, the coal industry as a whole is most sensitive to the trends and demands for electricity. It is less affected by what happens in other markets, such as export and direct industrial use. In fact, the coal industry is three times more sensitive to the electric utility market than to all other markets combined. Therefore, the trend in the demand for electricity must be examined. Electricity demand is expected to increase steadily over the next 15 years. It is projected to grow from its present 2.3 trillion kWh per year to 3.5 trillion kWh per year by the year 2000. The fuel to supply this increase in demand must come from somewhere. The question is "How much of this extra fuel will be coal?" Although the demand for electricity is predicted to increase, the demand for coal does not necessarily follow. Coal must maintain its fraction of the energy sources used for electricity generation if its demand is to increase at the same or greater rate as electricity. Except for a near-term dip in demand due to a slight increase in nuclear capacity, the domestic electric generation accruing to coal will go from 56% in 1985 to more than 60% in 2005. Thus, the predicted trend is for coal to become a larger part of the fuel mix for electric power generation. Similarly, looking at the most recent forecast for total coal consumption trends, it can be seen that for electric power generation alone, the coal industry must be able to supply an additional 316 Mt/a (348.5 million stpy) by the year 2000 (Fig. 3). It must be stressed here, though, that without significant improvements in mining safety, it can also be easily predicted that injuries and fatalities will increase in proportion to the increase in coal production. Will society consider that acceptable? This author does not believe so. Figure 4 examines the effect of coal prices on the price of electricity. The projections show that the already high proportion of fuel cost will become a greater fraction of the consumer price for electricity. Specifically in 1985, 36% of the price of electricity was the cost of the fuel. In 1995, 46% of the price of electricity will be the fuel cost. That implies that the price of coal will have an increasing influence on the consumer price for electricity. Thus, as coal is used more to generate electricity and as fuel becomes a greater

Jan 4, 1987