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By Elaine T. Bowers

The Sunnyside single-entry project pioneered the use of single entries for longwall development in this country. During the 10-year course of the project, an immense amount of information was gathered. Over three miles of entries were observed primarily through instrument groupings placed in strategically located areas or "rooms." Nearly 1,200 instruments were monitored to gain information on the behavior of coal entries during development stages and through the mining of two longwall panels. This was one of the most extensively documented projects undertaken by the Bureau, The data gathered has a great potential for scientific research especially in the area of longwall mining. This Bureau of Mines report presents the ground control data gathered, in the form of computerized plots. Roof-to-floor deformation and load on cribs and roof bolts make up the bulk of the data, which is presented as load or deformation versus time. The plots are organized, generally, by the three main entries involved and, specifically, by the individual areas or rooms in those entries. No major attempt will be made, in this paper, to analyze the data other than to identify its source arid its history.

Jan 1, 1983

By Holt L. Farley

This report describes the development of an electronic system which detects unsafe slack and overload conditions in underground mine hoist ropes. The Slack and Overload Rope Protection System (SORPS) includes a fail-safe load cell inserted between the rope and the conveyance, and an accelerometer mounted on the conveyance. Signals from these transducers are telemetered via a radio link to the hoist control room, where they are combined with drum speed and chair status in a microprocessor-based decision and display unit. Abnormally high external force levels are detected as discrepancies between rope tension and cage acceleration; conveyance weight is inferred continuously. Hazardous conditions are displayed to the hoist operator, along with general hoist status. The system has been tested in a working mine for approximately two years. The report contains specifications, design data and field test experience generated under the SORPS program. It also includes information on dynamic modeling, vibration environment, the status of existing slack detection systems, and applicable control strategies.

Jan 1, 1983

During the period 1979 thru 1982, Multi Mineral Corporation conducted a mining I research program at the United States Department of the Interior's Bureau of Mines Oil Shale Mining Environmental Research Facility in the Central Piceance Creek Basin, Rio Blanco County, Colorado. The program consisted of mining, environmental and geotechnical research data and, the results are described in this report.

Jan 1, 1983

By Gregory B. Beacher

Analyses have been performed on geotechnical properties of copper, uranium and phosphate (gypsum) tailings materials, with the intent of identifying typical measures of variability within and among sites, and of characterizing such variability for use in reliability modeling of tailings embankments. In all, data from approximately 41 sites were analysed. Fairly consistent results were obtained for within site variabilities. However no one probabilistic model was found to be applicable to all sites. The distributional forms for most of the data sets are regular, and tend toward Normality when spatial trends are removed. At many of the sites sufficient in situ data were available to allow estimates of vertical autocorrelation distances and measurement noise. Available data indicate that variability in pore pressures may have a more important effect than strength property variation. A major problem in interpreting available strength property data results from the unknown drainage conditions during testing.

Jan 1, 1983

By Dale R. Spangenberg

This Bureau of Mines Information Circular on phosphate is one of a series of minerals availability commodity directories. Nonconfidential information from the Minerals Availability Program data base covering 148 domestic and 103 foreign phosphate properties and deposits has been abstracted for use in this directory. Abstracts include applicable data on location, published reserves and resources, geology, mine and beneficiation systems, and operational information.

Jan 1, 1983

By ALAN J. HARGRAVES

It is normal that Shepherd and Rixon, in their contributed discussion (this issue) see differences with Hargraves (1983), as it exemplifies the present uncertain situation worldwide, a situation expected to remain until better understanding and wider agreement lead to the real goal of the prevention of instantaneous outbursts of coal and gas.

Jan 1, 1983

By Patricia J. Leonard - Mayer

A Bureau of Mines surface resistivity method has been used to determine the joint strike and coefficient of anisotropy of jointed , nearsurface formations at five study areas . The field studies demonstrate the use of rotated , or azimuthal , Wenner-Lee arrays for determining the strike of predominant joint sets . The results of the field studies include the following : in a formation having a predominant , vertical joint set , the maximum value of the apparent resistivity ( pa ) occurs in the same direction ( azimuth ) as the joint strike ; the polar coordinate graph of pa for such a formation is approximately elliptical ; the coefficient of anisotropy ( ^ ) can be calculated from the field data , and values of λ for jointed formations are in the same range of values reported for layered formations ; values of λ are higher at mined sites than at unmined sites . The azimuthal resistivity method and horizontal profiling were used at a site in Pennsylvania to delineate a zone of intensely jointed and fractured bedrock that provided a flow path from a surface stream to a mine . Analysis of the data has been based on a simple model of a jointed formation having a single joint set ; the success achieved to date indicates the need for a more complex model and additional field data .

Jan 1, 1983

By V. E. Edlund

As part of its efforts to devise new and improved methods for recovering lithium from unconventional resources , the Bureau of Mines investigated a lime -gypsum- roast , water- leach technique for processing lithiumenriched ( 0.01-0.68 pct Li ) clays . This report presents the results of a study of the technical feasibility of extracting lithium from raw material representative of clay beds associated with the McDermitt Caldera complex in Nevada and Oregon . prepared from water used Pellets suitable for bench-scale roasting studies were mixtures of minus 200 -mesh clay , limestone , and gypsum , with as the pelletizing agent . Roasting pelletized charges at 900 ° to 1,000° C temperatures for 1- to 4-h periods produced calcines that leached readily , yielding water - soluble lithium sulfate ( Li₂SO4 ) . A 5-3-3 ( weight ratio ) mix of clay , limestone , and gypsum produced calcines with the best leaching characteristics . More than 91 pct of the contained lithium was extracted from pelletized mix batches roasted in covered refractory boats . Lithium recovery decreased to about 87 pct when the mix was roasted under dynamic conditions in a gas - fired rotary furnace . A reaction mechanism was postulated which indicated that dilution and loss of SO2 and oxygen in the combustion exhaust adversely affected the leachability of the dynamically roasted calcine .

Jan 1, 1983

By R. E. Siemens, Gary L. Hundley

The Bureau of Mines has devised and demonstrated a process for recovering Ni and Co from low-grade domestic laterites . The process consists of four mmaajjoorr steps : ( 1 ) reduction roast , ( 2 ) ammoniacal leach , ( 3 ) solvent extraction , and ( 4 ) electrowinning . Several solid - liquid separation steps are required that affect the economics of the overall process . In this study , two techniques for solid - liquid separation , centrifugation and thickening , were investigated . This report presents the results of ( 1 ) laboratory and pilot plant studies to determine parameters for sizing centrifuges and thickeners and ( 2 ) an economic study of the two techniques , based on the requirements of a commercial - size ( 5,000 - tpd ) laterite processing plant . Sizing and other equipment - related recommendations , based on data from the Bureau's studies , were obtained from commercial manufacturers . The costs of thickening and centrifugation , including all the unit operations affected , were determined by the Bureau's process evaluation group . The total operating costs for separation using the two techniques ( including depreciation on the capital cost of equipment ) were found to be quite close : $ 17.26 per ton of laterite for centrifugation and $ 18.15 per ton of laterite for thickening . For centrifugal separation , the greatest cost was found to be the initial capital cost for the separation equipment ; using thickeners , the greatest cost was for reagent recovery .

Jan 1, 1983

By G. B. Atkinson

The Bureau of Mines investigated a method for increasing the leaching rate of bulk superalloy scrap to facilitate recycling and recovery of critical metals such as Ni, Co, and Cr. Three superalloys were investi- gated, the cast-nickel-base superalloy IN-738, the wrought-nickel-base superalloy Rene-41, and the cast-cobalt-base superalloy Mar-M-509. Superalloys melted with 20, 30, 40, and 50 pct Al metal to form inter- metallic compounds were easily crushed to a convenient particle size and reacted rapidly with acid solutions which dissolved the metals. For example, leaching 1/2-in pieces of unalloyed IN-738 with excess 6N HC1 at 95° C for 2 h dissolved about 0.5 pct, while leaching 10 g of minus 20-mesh 30 pct Al-70 pct IN-738 with excess 6N HC1 at 95° C for 2 h dis- solved 96.2 pct.

Jan 1, 1983

By Paul Bedard, Réal Daigneault, Guy Perrault

"La mine Lamaque est située a Val d'Or, Québec; les roches hônes appartiennent au groupe de Malartic, partie supérieure, et sont des andésites et des pyroclastites. On y retrouve deux formes d'intrusifs; des petites cheminées (ca. 150 m D) et des dykes (ca. 10 m d'epaisseur). Les petit es cheminées contiennent:1 - des diorites et des tonalites (cheminées principale, est et ouest) d'affinité calco-alcaline: Zr 140 ppm, Sr 761 ppm, P2O5 0.31% et (La/Sm)n 3.0;2 - des diorites (cheminée 4) d'affinités tholéiitique: Zr 32 ppm, Sr 181 ppm, P2O5 0.27% et (La/SM)n 1.5.La diorite de la cheminée no 5 contient deux fractions, une de chacune de ces deux affinités. Les dykes tant de porphyre feldspathique quartzifére que ceux de prophyre feldspathique sont d'affinité calco-alcaline: Zr 83 ppm, Sr 500 ppm et P2O5j 0.10%.Le gisement de 10 mine 2 est filonien: veines subhorizontales (""flats "") surtout et veines sub-verticales dans des zones de cisaillement. Le dernier réajustement structural de direction de compression nord-sud a broyé le quartz des veines existant es et rendu possible leur minéralisation. Les veines minéralisées contiennent du quartz, de la tourmaline, de la calcite avec des traces de scheelite, de pyrite et d'or; elles sont bordées par de minces (2 à 20 cm) bordures d'altération où l'on retrouve un enrichissement en carbonate, paragonite, apatite, rutile, saphène et zircon et où les phases ferromagnésiennes sont disparues. On a documenté le migrations géochimiques suivantes:I - de la bordure d'altération vers l'éponte, K2O, Rb et MgO;2 - de l'éponte vers la bordure d'altération, Na2O;3 - de l'éponte vers la veine, SiO2.P2O5, TiO2, Zr, Y, Nb et CaO sont enrichis dans la bordure d'altération."

Jan 1, 1983

By Thomas F. Clemens

This paper covers various changes in government regulations, taxation, and legislation for the past two plus years and the up- coming one. Part of the paper will discuss recent business conditions and how they have affected the cement and lime industry.

Jan 1, 1983

By Earl M. Woodward

INTRODUCTION Kerckhoff-2 is a 140 MW underground hydro-electric project designed and owned by Pacific Gas and Electric Company and constructed between May, 1980 and May, 1983 by Auburn Constructors. The project is located in the western foothills of the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains, about 30 miles northeast of Fresno, California, and develops the power potential of the lower San Joaquin River and its tributaries between the existing Kerckhoff and Millerton Lakes. The Kerckhoff-2 Project consists of project roads, adits, and access tunnels, service tunnels, power tunnels, powerhouse, tailrace tunnel surge shaft, buss shaft, intake structure, discharge structure, and switchyard. In the 1920s, the Kerckhoff 1 project, consisting of a dam, reservior, tunnel, and 34 MW powerhouse, was built in the same general area as Kerckhoff-2. The tunnel was constructed by conventional methods, and was left unlined. In time, other projects were built upstream, allowing the flow of the San Joaquin River to be regulated. The Kerckhoff 2 project is designed to harness that regulated flow, providing an additional 140,000 ON of power. Kerckhoff 2 will be the primary power plant; Kerckhoff I will produce power whenever the flow rate exceeds 4,800 cubic feet. The new power tunnel is built along the east side of the San Joaquin River between Kerckhoff and Millerton Lakes, parallel to the existing tunnel but extending approximately one mile further downstream.

Jan 1, 1983

By Richard J. Mainiero

The Bureau of Mines has developed a prototype nonincendive explosive rock-breaker charge that can be fired unconfined in underground bituminous coal mines without the danger of igniting a flammable atmosphere that might be present. At present, unconfined shooting in underground coal mines is prohibited, but there are situations where the use of such shots would yield an overall improvement in safety. The charge consists of l-1/2 lb of permissible water gel explosive in the form of a short cylinder 7 inches in diameter and 7/8 inches high, surrounded by a l/2-inch-thick layer of damp salt, and encased in latex rubber reinforced with cheese cloth. The latex rubber housing provides a charge package that is strong enough to resist rough handling yet is pliable enough to conform to an irregular stone surface. A charge of this shape was found to be more effective at breaking rock than charges with lined or unlined cavities. Incendivity tests in a gallery have shown that the prototype charge will not ignite a flammable methane-air atmosphere when fired. Rock- breaking tests made with limestone boulders indicate that the charge will satisfactorily break stone slabs weighing 1 to 2 tons, and that two or more charges might be effective for slabs weighing up to 10 tons. In cooperation with the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), a test protocol for the certification of these charges as "permissible" for use in flammable atmospheres is being developed.

Apr 1, 1982

By Paul D. Tomlingson

Maintenance costs in the mining industry often account for as much as 18-20% of total operating costs and with the cost of labor and materials rising, they threaten to become an even larger percentage of the total. Yet, without an effective maintenance program costs can soar beyond what they would be without a program. In other words, when production equipment is down, there is no production and no product to sell in the marketplace. This cost of downtime in lost product far exceeds the actual cost of maintenance, which is defined here as labor and materials. Thus, mine management must have an effective maintenance program to avoid downtime and meet production targets. Attaining an Effective Maintenance Program Many mine management and operations supervisors believe that an effective program is a function of how hard they push maintenance. Yet, when vital production equipment is inoperable and production is lagging, no amount of pushing helps. In actuality, maintenance has little control over its own destiny and needs support from other departments to deliver good service. Success of the maintenance program depends on gaining control of those factors that directly influence maintenance. Consider the following. Organization-The maintenance organization must be structured for maximum responsiveness to production needs. Unfortunately, some needs are immediate and many are unknown in advance. The maintenance department has little control over them. These outside influences limit the department manager's ability to control his own organizational structure. Preventive maintenance procedures-Routine lubrication, equipment inspection, minor adjustments and the like are controlled mostly by maintenance. Yet, scheduling preventive maintenance depends also on the availability of equipment controlled by other departments. Planning-The purpose of planning maintenance jobs is to ensure that the best use is made of maintenance resources. If the production department creates an environment of running repairs and emergencies, there can be little planning. Even well-planned jobs will suffer if there is less than full cooperation in carrying them out. As a consequence, the maintenance department is not blocked from planning, but the value of its planning is reduced. Scheduling-Maintenance scheduling should be a joint effort. Although maintenance does the planning, production must agree to the scheduled maintenance of its equipment. Workload-As a service organization, the maintenance department has limited control over its workload because it must consistently respond to other department's demands. At best, maintenance controls only the fixed portion of its workload-utility work, janitorial service, maintenance shop work, and assigned repetitive and preventive maintenance duties. Unscheduled and emergency work are initiated by operations. Major maintenance actions require full cooperation. Labor productivity-The effective use of labor is tied to other key functions of maintenance. These include organization, preventive maintenance, planning, scheduling, and emergency work. An area type organization, for example, can often respond more quickly to immediate needs than a centrally controlled maintenance group. Yet, area maintenance can result in lower labor productivity unless tight control is exercised. One of the advantages of a good "detection-oriented" preventive maintenance program is early discovery of problems and better opportunity to schedule corrective work in advance. Under planned work conditions, use of labor can be more productive. Complete planning and scheduling can minimize time spent on each job, increase effectiveness of supervision, and improve labor productivity. Finally, if emergency work is minimized, there are fewer delays, less lost time, better coordination, and more productive use of labor. While labor productivity is an important factor in carrying out maintenance, it also is influenced by outside factors. However, few realize the impact of being able to improve maintenance productivity. By improving the productivity of 30 men from 30% to 40%, maintenance could accomplish the same work value as if it had added 7.5 men working at 40% productivity. 30 (1800) (40%) = 21,600 man-hr/yr 30 (1800) (30%) = 16,200 man-hr/yr Difference = 5,400 man-hr/yr 1800 (40%) 7.5 men Leadership-The maintenance department can have significant control over its own leaders, the front-line foremen, but they must

Jan 12, 1982

By Paul L. Russell

Numbers, arithmetic, mathematics. Where did it all come from? Who needs it? We all do, but many school children would not agree. Engineers, physicists, accountants, tax collectors, and most of the general public are well aware that modern society in large part is founded on mathematics and could not exist without it. Mathematics developed over thousands of years as part of the everyday life of man. No one area, tribe, or race can claim discovery. In fact, from the records that do exist, it is evident that many facets of mathematics were discovered independently of others who made similar discoveries. While proof may be lacking, the earliest concepts of mathematics may be some 250,000 to 300,000 years old. The first use of numbers as written records is unknown. However, a bone of a young wolf deeply cut with 55 notches-arranged in two rows, one of 25 notches, the other of 30-was found in Czechoslovakia. Dated to be about 30,000 years old, it is perhaps an early record of some kind of counting system. It is assumed that mathematics was developed as an answer to man's practical needs, but anthropological studies suggest that the art of counting may have developed in connection with the needs of primitive religious ceremonial rites. Fingers probably were first used to designate sets of from one to five objects. Using both hands, up to 10 items could be indicated. As civilization developed, so did the need for more flexible systems to record items of trade, measure land, and figure taxes. Aristotle noted that the development of the decimal system comes from the fact that most people are born with 10 fingers and 10 toes. In spite of this obvious fact many early civilizations used binary, ternary, and quinary systems while vigesimal systems (with 20 as a base) and even sexagesimal systems (with 60 as a base) were used by others. A form of writing was in use in both the Mesopotamian and Nile valleys as early as 3000 to 4500 B.C. In Mesopotamia, wedge-shaped marks were impressed upon soft clay tablets that were hardened in ovens or by the sun. Many thousands of such tablets have survived. When the tablets were finally deciphered, some were found to be records of items shipped in trade, inventories, tax accounts, and mathematics exercises for teaching. Mesopotamia is also the source of an interesting board game dating back to about 2500 B.C. Its buttonlike men and triangular dice were apparently used with squares of shell, inlaid with lapis lazuli and red sandstone. Unfortunately, rules of play were not found. In Egypt, record preservation was somewhat better. Discovery of the Rosetta Stone in 1799 eventually led to deciphering the Egyptian hieroglyphics that included a numbering system at least 5,000 years old. These records show a competence in counting and numbering. A calendar of good accuracy may have been in existence as early as 4,200 years ago. Mathematics, as practiced today, developed when the Greeks added logic and proof to arithme-

Jan 12, 1982

By Thomas O’Neil

Part 2 of this article continues with a discussion of features that distinguish contemporary investment analysis in mining from earlier methods. Part 1 traced the evolution of evaluation methodology from the traditional and discounted cash flow methods to the present. Quantitative investment models of the past 20 years played an important role in mine evaluation, but a new integrated approach to mine investment decision-making is now developing because of growing economic, technical, and political uncertainties. One of those uncertainties -inflation-was discussed in Part 1. Increased Risk At a time when mineral production technology and analytical evaluation tools have never been more sophisticated, it may seem anomalous to claim that mining ventures are riskier. Whereas technical risk has, indeed, been notably reduced, business risk the chance of a major loss due to market factors-has increased. This has been caused by two factors: the rapidly rising capital requirements of new projects and increasingly unpredictable future economic conditions. These difficulties are compounded by the long lead times of large, new mining projects. Rising Capital Requirements A $100 million investment is no longer considered to be a large mining project in most cases. For a large metal mining project, the total cost of the concentrator alone can exceed $100 million. Amoco Minerals' Thompson Creek molybdenum mine being developed in Idaho will cost over $350 million, for a relatively modest sized (23-kt/d or 25,000-stpd) ore operation with no extraordinary features. For a major grass roots copper operation producing blis¬ter or refined copper, the capital requirements are billions of dollars, not millions. Project costs are higher for two reasons. One, the projects themselves are larger; and two, the capital cost per unit of production is rising rapidly. Projects are larger because lower grade ores, yielding smaller margins, must be mined in greater volume-particularly in view of the high fixed costs of modern technology. When analysts contemplate any capital project, an important consideration is the minimum economic size of the facility. This is the smallest size that can be built and still be competitive on a total unit production cost basis. In the conventional copper smelting business, for example, a production rate of at least 91 kt/a (100,000 stpy) of blister copper is about the absolute minimum for reducing unit fixed costs to competitive levels. Clearly, many variables affect the minimum economic size of a mining facility, but with few exceptions that size continues to grow. Unit capital costs of new mining projects also are continuing to rise. The accompanying table shows that the capital costs in primary copper production have risen faster than the cost of living. Of particular note is the capital charge of over $1.70/kg (77411b) required for a new, fully integrated facility in 1981. Thus, the mid-1982 copper price would not even cover the cost of capital for a new copper producing complex without considering the direct operating costs for such a facility. The breath-taking costs of new mining projects are caused by factors such as increasingly complex technology, the rising social costs of creating attractive living and working conditions for employ¬ees, and the expenditures re¬quired for environmental protec¬tion. For whatever reasons, how¬ever, unit capital costs in mining continue to exhibit staggering growth rates. Future Economic Conditions Risk is not only a function of the size of the potential loss-an im¬portant measure of which is the capital intensity of mining dis¬cussed above-but also of the like¬lihood of incurring the loss. It is here that the ever increasing lead times of mining projects and the glaring limitations of economic forecasting are so important. In comparison to nearly all other in¬vestments, mining has more capi¬tal at stake for a longer period of time before commercial uncer¬tainty is resolved by distant eco¬nomic conditions that are subject to high forecasting errors. A sobering example of the pre¬ceding points occurred with the Lakeshore copper mine in south¬ern Arizona that Hecla Mining Co. undertook to finance and manage in 1969. The project was a joint venture of Hecla and the El Paso Natural Gas Co. and included two mines-one producing oxide ore and a second in the sulfide zone¬and a complex processing facility producing both electrowon cop¬per cathodes and copper precipi¬tates. The project originally was

Jan 12, 1982

By Katzer R. Klimpel, J. Sewell

Dr. Roussey Roussev The use of chemical additives on grinding is of significant importance considering the high energy consumption of grinding processes. My research indicates that the dispersant approach explains the effects, in this particular case of wet grinding. Further, the dispersant approach combined with torque measurements give the possibility of clarifying the mechanisms involved when using grinding aids. I find the conclusions derived from the data obtained to be correct and useful for grinding. In general, I agree with the explanations. However, I would like to discuss several additional points that I consider to be important, and in the same time to mention some of my own results from investigations similar to those presented in the study under discussion. The "bed volume concept" and the change of slurry viscosity explain adequately the data plotted on fig. 3, in conjunction with Figs. 1 and 2. However, the significant increase of the average torque in the case of 83% solid with XFS-4272 introduces the necessity of establishing the optimum of percent solid when dispersant is used. For example, the optimum percent of solid for different materials varies. One of the reasons is the material's mass density. On the other hand, it is necessary to determine the concentration of the chemical used. Because of this, it would be interesting to know how the cited concentration was selected. The supportive discussion and verification by Dr. Roussev, with results similar to that of the paper, is appreciated. I will try to answer the additional questions he has raised. To begin with, the mill was fitted with six lifters of approximately one-quarter inch height. There has been extensive lab and plant level work to understand downstream influences of using dispersants like XFS-4272*. In sulfide ore processing, which is the area in which most industrial scale testing has been performed with this approach, neutral to positive influences have been observed. For example, positive effects (e.g., increased recovery) have been noticed in flotation operations involving ores that have a tendency to produce excessive slimes upon grinding. (1) Also, the use of a dispersant has been shown to demonstrate a positive influence on classification by improving the sharpness of separation and preventing a decrease in d50 value that usually accompanies increasing flow rates to classifiers.(2) The biggest potential downstream problem is in thickening, which at the dosages involved, has not been a problem in plant scale usage. The commercial price of dispersants like XFS-4272 is quite variable depending on source, concentration, etc, but a typical cost of XFS-4272 to achieve a 10% increase in throughput in industrial mills has been between 20 and 35- US per ton of feed ore (1981).

Jan 12, 1982

By Adrian C. Dorenfeld, John T. Oleksy

John D. Maefadyen Subject paper unfortunately has some serious flaws negating the usefulness of the paper. The authors claim that sulfur is the major source of production problems in cement kilns. This is not the case. Sulfur is not a problem as long as the mole ratio of sulfur to alkali oxides is less than, or equal to, 1. This is attributed to the sulfur preferentially combining with the alkali oxides and not acting as a clogging agent due to the nature of the pre-heater vessels. Where the mole ratio exceeds 1, many methods are available to eliminate or reduce the clogging problems such as using the preheater bypass or a precalciner with up to 100% kiln gas bypass. In non-preheater kilns, the presence of sulfates is hardly ever a problem anyhow. Thus, the level of sulfur in the fuel and raw material that might cause problems is not a fixed amount, but is predictable. The purpose of the paper is to discuss the economics of conversion of kilns in the Indonesian and Phillippine cement industries from oil firing to coal firing. This economic analysis has very little to do with the sulfur levels. Thus, the section of the paper on sulfates is actually rather meaningless. The economic analysis is also rather meaningless because the authors have failed to follow accepted economic analysis procedures by including interest charges. They have fallen into the trap of confusing financing with economic evaluation. When the accepted methods of economic evaluation are used, the return on investment increases to about 35%. In conclusion, the paper is not a meaningful contribution, and sadly, quite erroneous.

Jan 11, 1982

By Thomas J. Neil, O&apos

Most analysts find that progress has been evolutionary in any technologic field. To be sure, a few discrete breakthroughs can usually be identified, but viewed in its entirety, the curve of technologic progress over time tends to be relatively smooth with few discontinuities. Even in those cases where a major scientific discovery is achieved, the rate of technologic progress is limited by the often surprisingly slow rate of commercializing the concept into usable products. Whereas discovery and invention tend to be discrete events, technical innovation is often a painfully slow process. In spite of overall gradual change, technologic progress in most fields, when viewed in retrospect, tends to reveal certain relatively homogeneous periods where little change is evident, separated by episodes of accelerated progress. Thus, open-pit mining over the past century has changed from predominately train haulage to truck haulage and is now experiencing a major increase in belt haulage. Ore reserve estimation is another field that fits the same pattern, and the history of mine evaluation lends itself to a similar analysis. Evaluating mine investment opportunities is a fascinating aspect of mining. The unique set of risks inherent to every mining project is particularly intriguing. Geologic risks are most obvious, since faulty ore grade and tonnage estimates are among the leading causes of mine failures. Wide swine's in mineral commodity prices are usually cited as another major risk in mining. Because any ore deposit is a finite resource and the miner has limited discretion in selecting a mining sequence, mines are generally at the mercy of notoriously fickle commodity markets. There is a tendency for many mine investment analysts to feel that mineral market uncertainties are unprecedented in severity. Of course, prices in other markets rise and fall also-in some cases as precipitously as with minerals. However, two other mining characteristics tend to compound this marketing risk. First, the preproduction development period for a new mine is characteristically long. Under extremely favorable conditions, a significant mine may be developed in as little as two years, but the norm is four to six years or more. Second, mining is among the most capital intensive industries, consistently ranking near the top among all industrial sectors in assets per employee, and near the bottom in annual sales dollars per dollar of assets. Thus, mine investors typically have large sums invested for a long time before the outcome of the venture is determined by notoriously unpredictable markets. This is not a business for the faint of heart, and the importance of sound investment decision making is obvious. The high risk and technical complexity of mining operations have combined to require greater attention to financial evaluation by mining engineers than by most engineers in other specialties. Nearly all early mining engineering textbooks dealt with problems in mine valuation in a detailed manner; and, today, the sophistication of capital investment analysis is high in the mineral industries. Traditional Mine Valuation Methods Although some evaluation process has no doubt accompanied nearly every mine development throughout history, a formalized quantitative approach first emerged in the last half of the 19th century with the establishment of academic programs in mining engineering. The philosophy and approach to mine valuation that evolved at this time were, with periodic minor refinements, considered the standard for nearly a century. Only after 1960 did major changes begin to occur. The traditional approach to mine valuation reflected the investment community's historic attitudes toward risk. Mines were generally considered too risky for debt financing, and virtually every new mine was financed from internally generated funds or new equity subscriptions. The investment evaluation methods that evolved focused on mining's higher risk relative to other

Jan 11, 1982