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By Anton Sizo, Alexey Klyashtorin

The Gunnar uranium mine operated from 1953 to 1961 on the shore of Lake Athabasca, in 1964 the site was abandoned, and the mine pit flooded. In 1981, the pit was found to be stratified with a chemocline at ~70 m by a sharp change in conductivity and TDS. The uranium concentration was ~700 μg/l on the surface, 320 μg/l at 50 m, and 2,900 μg/l at 110 m. The Ra-226 concentrations were 0.1, 0.06, 0.12, and 0.4 Bq/l. By 2017, the chemocline was ~60 m deep. The highest uranium concentration was 1150 μg/l and the lowest concentration (220 μg/l) was attributed to the chemocline. In the deeper column, the uranium content varied around 750 μg/l. The uranium distribution down the pit profile was aligned with DO, ORP, and TDS. Ra-226 averaged to ~0.4 Bq/l, Ra-226 and uranium profiles were inversely related with the respective maximum and minimum attributed to the chemocline. The uranium and radium amount accumulated in the pit by 2017 was 3,420 kg and 2,163 GBq, respectively. The uranium and radium apparent accumulation trend estimates to 64 kg/y and 41 MBq/y, respectively. A stable chemocline and no concentration gradients in the other parts of the pit suggest that the contaminants are unlikely to inflow from the bottom opening or outside the pit, but rather are mobilized from the pit walls. The contaminants are not in a steady state, and concentrations of both uranium and radium are likely to increase slowly in the future if no remediation occurs.

Jan 1, 2020

By Horatio Sam-Aggrey, Margot Hurlbert

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) have been touted as having the potential to spearhead a nuclear renaissance. Proponents of this view cite the relative advantages of SMRs over larger nuclear plants as reason for their optimism. Some of these merits include potential economies of mass production deriving from modular factory production, enhanced safety features, the ability to locate reactors in remote areas, and reduced requirements for technical workforces to install and maintain SMRs. Despite the optimism surrounding SMRs, nuclear power is still a contentious issue for many Canadians. The growth of nuclear power remains adversely affected by concerns over issues such as: the health and safety consequences of nuclear power generation, environmental impacts, proliferation of nuclear materials, terrorism, and radioactive waste disposal (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), 2010). Personal values, past nuclear accidents, and lack of trust in the industry are other factors influencing attitudes toward nuclear energy (IAEA, 2005). In Canada, three main areas where SMRs could be used have been identified. These include: a. Traditional, on-grid power generation, especially in provinces looking for zero-emissions replacements for CO2-emitting coal plants. B. Remote off grid communities that currently rely on diesel or fuel oil power generation. There are 279 off-grid communities in Canada, many of them being Aboriginal communities (NRCan, ND). Notably, all communities in each of Canada’s three territories qualify as remote. C. Resource extraction sites, such as mining and oil and gas extraction sites. Many of Canada’s principal producing mines and active mineral exploration projects are located within close proximity of Aboriginal communities. Any proposed implementation of small nuclear plants would, require the support of the local population, which is largely Indigenous in the northern regions. The possible deployment of SMRs raises important issue relating to consultation and accommodation of Aboriginal concerns regarding potential SMR deployment. This is especially pertinent given Canada’s pending implementation of the provisions of UNDRIP. One of the provisions of UNDRIP that has attracted a lot of attention is the one on Free Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC). Drawing on previously published information, this paper discusses some of the challenges posed by FPIC for the deployment of SMRs. The next section outlines the provisions of FPIC and its implementation in the Canadian context. Section 3, details some of the challenges posed by FPIC to the deployment of SMRs, while Section 4 provides some concluding comments.

Jan 1, 2020

By C. Holmes, T. Holmes

Engineered-in material handling problems are responsible for significant unrealized value in mineral processing plants. At the root, is a lack of awareness and understanding of bulk material handling science and how important it is, especially in early design stages. Mineral processes add value to mined raw feedstock through physical and chemical transformations in unit operations, but only if the material can flow through them. Essentially, each unit operation receives a unique feedstock and produces a unique product to be collected, transported, and fed into the next unit operation. Such material-handling systems can only be expected to achieve design throughput if the system equipment is designed to the materials’ characteristics, over their full range of conditions. This requires quantification of flow properties to support the necessary customized equipment designs. Too often, assumptions or “library values” of a material’s properties are used as the basis for flow modelling and conceptual, and sometimes even detailed, design. This is especially true for hazardous materials like uranium ore, for which the additional precautions, costs, and time necessary for safe handling are often used to rationalize postponing or even bypassing testing. The surprises that often transpire in the wake of insufficient material handling consideration can have acute and costly effects. Fortunately, there is a better way.

Jan 1, 2020

By B. Holaday, H. McLaughlin

Orano Canada Inc. (Orano) operates the McClean Lake mill, located in the Athabasca Basin region of northern Saskatchewan. It processes high concentration uranium ore, delivered in slurry form from the Cameco Corporation operated Cigar Lake mine. After the ore slurry is leached at the McClean Lake mill, the leach residue solids are washed in a process known as counter-current decantation (CCD). This process uses six thickeners to facilitate counter-current washing of solids with diluted acid, flocculation and settling, as well as pumping the washed leach residue to the tailings neutralization circuit (TN), and the uranium laden aqueous to the solvent extraction circuit (SX). Challenges in settling the slurry in CCD started in early 2017. This is largely due to the variation in fines content of the slurry (D80≤75μm), and clay content. There are several changes that have allowed the mill to adapt to the evolving challenges of settling leached Cigar Lake leach residue. Flocculant selection and mixing, temperature effects, bed level management philosophy, and centre-well feed density are key parameters that have been explored as part of adapting to changes in Cigar Lake ore quality.

Jan 1, 2020

By A. Kobzhanov, S. Saparova, S. Brochot, D. A. Mango

KATCO (an ORANO Mining and Kazatomprom joint venture) is the largest in-situ leach uranium mining operation in the world, exploiting the Muyunkum and Tortkuduk uranium deposits in southern Kazakhstan. After extraction from the deposits, uranium is then transported via a hydraulic network to be purified in three processing plants located near these deposits. Within KATCO, with the support of ORANO Mining and CASPEO, in 2018 and 2019, a large project that had as its main objective to improve the uranium accounting system was implemented. The objective of this paper is to describe this project and all the changes that it entailed. At KATCO plants, a black-box approach was previously used for uranium accounting. However, it is recommended to use all the available measurements and to deploy a data reconciliation model (between well-fields and plant) as the reconciliation uncertainty is overall lower and it provides a more accurate uranium balance. During the deployment of this project, the rules and algorithms to generate the uranium accounting report, the associated flow diagrams (for uranium accounting), the streams, units of operation, stocks, reporting and Key Performance Indicators calculation rules were re-defined.

Jan 1, 2020

By Luis Romero, Edilberto Linares, Steve Windle

El yacimiento de Zafranal —proyecto de pórfidos de cobre y oro ubicado en la región Arequipa, Perú— en sí mismo ha penetrado en lo que parece ser un salto dextral sobre una estructura del SFIC. A nivel de yacimiento, se ha mapeado una serie de fallas pronunciadas WNW en la zona mineralizada principal, consistentes con la transtensión dextral inferida. Esta estructura de fallas se trazó en 3-D a partir de las zonas de gubias identificadas en la fotografía de testigos, método que permitió elaborar un modelo estructural de forma rápida y con consistencia interna. La cinemática de las vetas y los patrones de afloramiento trazados generalmente coinciden con las estructuras interpretadas. El movimiento dextral inferido en el SFIC en el Cretácico Superior es consistente con un vector de convergencia de placas hacia el norte, y puede ser utilizado para identificar targets estructurales para sistemas de edad similar, tanto en el piamonte como en la cordillera.

Dec 31, 2019

By CHRISTOPHER D. HEBERT, SCOTT W. HOFFMAN

All Rights Reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Information contained in this work has been obtained by SME, Inc. from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither SME nor its authors guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information published herein, and neither SME nor its authors shall be responsible for any errors, omissions, or damages arising out of use of this information. This work is published with the understanding that SME and its authors are supplying information but are not attempting to render engineering or other professional services. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Any statement or views presented here are those of individual authors and are not necessarily those of the SME. The mention of trade names for commercial products does not imply the approval or endorsement of SME.

Dec 1, 2019

By CIM Mineral Resource, Mineral Reserve Committee

The CIM Estimation of Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves Best Practice Guidelines (MRMR Best Practice Guidelines) were prepared by the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum's (CIM) Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves Committee (CIM MRMR Committee) to update an earlier version that was accepted by CIM Council on November 23, 2003 (CIM, 2003). These 2019 MRMR Best Practice Guidelines supersede and replace the November 23, 2003 version of the MRMR Guidelines. These 2019 MRMR Guidelines are not intended to be prescriptive and are not intended to provide detailed and exhaustive instructions for preparation of Mineral Resource and/or Mineral Reserve (MRMR) estimates. Rather, they are intended as general guidance to assist professional geoscientists (or equivalent) and engineers (or equivalent) in preparing high quality estimates of MRMR that incorporate sound geoscientific, engineering, evaluation and design practices. They are based on well-established estimation and mine planning principles and are designed to provide general guidelines of best professional practices employed in the preparation of MRMR estimates. Although the 2019 MRMR Best Practice Guidelines are intended for use by Canadian-based mining/exploration practitioners, many of the concepts and practices presented herein are in general agreement with current industry practices in jurisdictions with membership in the Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards (CRIRSCO). For this document, persons preparing MRMR estimates are called Practitioners. Preparation of MRMR estimates should be carried out by Practitioners who either hold the status of Professional Geoscientist (or equivalent) or Professional Engineer (or equivalent), or who prepare the estimates under the supervision of a Professional Geoscientist (or equivalent) or Professional Engineer (or equivalent). For the purposes of this document, all references to reporting describe such necessary reports and related documentation that are created as part of the normal-course work flow of preparing MRMR estimates for internal purposes. For clarity, all public disclosure of MRMR estimates made by, or on behalf of, an issuer and intended to be, or reasonably likely to be, made available to the public in a jurisdiction of Canada must comply with the requirements of National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (NI 43-101), as amended from time to time. At least one Qualified Person (QP) must take responsibility for each part of the estimation process when publicly disclosing the results of MRMR estimates. The intended audience for these 2019 MRMR Best Practice Guidelines includes Practitioners at all levels of skill and experience, government agencies, academic institutions, and the public.

Nov 29, 2019

By CIMVAL

This Code for the Valuation of Mineral Properties (the “CIMVAL Code”) is the result of a review more than a decade after the release in 2003 of the “Standards and Guidelines for Valuation of Mineral Properties” (the "2003 Standards"). The purpose of the review is to update the 2003 Standards to reflect domestic valuation, international valuation, and regulatory developments. The CIMVAL Code was adopted by the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Petroleum (the "CIM") Council on November 29, 2019. The CIMVAL Code supersedes the 2003 Standards. The 2003 Standards were dated February 2003 and were adopted by the CIM Council on March 9, 2003 as the first comprehensive set of standards for Valuation of Mineral Properties in the Canadian mining industry. The 2003 Standards followed recommendations of the Mining Standards Task Force of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Ontario Securities Commission, where in its Final Report (January 1999), the CIM was specifically asked to form a committee of valuation practitioners to review and advise on standards for the Valuation of Mineral Properties. The Special Committee on Valuation of Mineral Properties ("CIMVAL") was created on May 5, 1999 with the mandate to recommend standards and guidelines for Valuation of Mineral Properties to be used by the mining industry in general. The CIMVAL Code is limited to the Valuation of Mineral Properties (including any interests therein) and does not cover valuation of corporations or other entities that hold Mineral Properties as assets. The CIMVAL Code does not cover petroleum and related assets. CIMVAL recommends that the CIMVAL Code be followed for all Valuations of Mineral Properties, including those required by securities administrators and stock exchanges. However, when a Valuation is required under the applicable rules of securities administrators or stock exchanges, such rules prevail to the extent of any inconsistency.

Nov 29, 2019

By J. Perlacia

"As the bulk handling sector continues its transformation to Industry 4.0, the mining industry, and its harsh working and environmental conditions, provides a perfect spot to study the feasibility of remote analysis and maintenance of the components used for bulk handling. The most important and expensive tools have been adapted to the digital era in recent years, from remotely controlled haul trucks to monitored conveyor belts.However, the big items of the installations rely on smaller parts that have been leftaside, mainly due to the difficultyof adapting them to the Internet ofThings (IoT).The paradigmatic example is the lack of monitored rollers, while all the other components of the conveyorbelt installations (the belt itself, motors, drums, etc.) were monitored some time ago. The main problem is that a failure of a single roller can cause the stoppage of the entire conveyor, due to possible damage to the belt. Thus, the implementation of an integral monitoring system of all the components of the conveyor is a must.The research and development department of ULMA Conveyor Components has been working since early 2012 on the development of monitored rollers, testing all the problems until their final installation in different demanding conditions, from the extreme heat in Australia to the freezing cold of Norway. All the tests have been done under actual working conditions, in real installations and have provided valuable knowledge in the identification of problems, their solutions and the final advantages of a roller monitoring system.Background and current stateThe malfunction of a single roller in certain conveyor belts can force the standstill of the entire installation until its replacement, due to the risk of greater and more expensive failures, such as a rip in the belt. In the case of a bulk handling installation, where a continuous supply of material is necessary, an unexpected stop of one hour could result in huge economic losses."

Nov 1, 2019

By William Gleason

"Mining roots run deep in Glenrock, WY, a town that was founded in part, because of the coal mining that began in the late 1800s. But that rich history also now threatens large parts of the town that were built over the top of the mines. Like many towns in the Western United States, mining is a proud part of the historical fabric and heritage of the town, but the legacy issues from past mining activities continue to present challenges to modern-day engineers.In the case of Glenrock, a small town about 40 km (25 miles) east of Casper, it is flooding from a century of water that has accumulated in the down geologic dip of the furthest northeastern extent of 87 ha (217 acres) of mine workings that has made the town susceptible to sinkholes and other issues (Fig. 1).Full commercial coal mining production began in Glenrock in 1887 during the development of the Fremont, Elkhorn and Missouri Valley railway. Due to poor overlying roof rock and continuous flooding within Glenrock, Mines No. 1 and 2 were fully closed in 1909. During its history, an estimated 87 ha (217 acres) were mined with 50 to 60 percent extraction ratio within the eastern town limits through room-and-pillar mining. It is estimated that the mines produced 22 kt/a (25,000 stpy) during their lifetime. A century later, the water pressure built up in the northeastern most portion of the mine has created serious concerns for residents.In 2016, the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality’s Abandoned Mine Lands Divisions (AML) investigated a number of subsidence events in the town including sinkholes following heavy precipitation. The AML investigations confirmed that most events were related to the previous mining in the area.Mitigation efforts on the mines were done in the 1980s and 1990s, but the problems in the town and in a nearby subdivision persisted, leading the AML to search for alternative solutions."

Nov 1, 2019

By F. L. Pirkle, W. C. Bagby

"In his 1989 book, The New Realities, Peter F. Drucker, Clark Professor of Social Science at Claremont Graduate School, Claremont, CA, stated: “Information is data endowed with relevance and purpose. Converting data into information thus requires knowledge. And knowledge, by definition, is specialized” (p. 209).The discipline of mineral valuation is knowledge-based and requires a mineral valuer to collect, analyze and interpret data that are material to a mineral-valuation assignment. In so doing, the valuer turns the data into information (data come first, followed by information as determined by the mineral valuer) for use by the client (from whom the valuer obtained the mineral-valuation assignment) and other intended users. The valuer uses his or her experience and education (each valuer’s knowledge base) supported by a foundation built upon competency, materiality and transparency, the three pillars of mineral valuation (minerals valuation, mineral-property valuation).The International Mineral Valuation Standards Template (IMVAL Template), third edition dated May 2018, defines mineral valuation as: “The estimation of the value of a mineral property in money or monetary equivalent. The word ‘valuation’ can be used to refer to the estimated value (the valuation conclusion) or to refer to the preparation of the estimated value (the act of valuing)” (p. 14).Furthermore, the IMVAL Template clearly separates valuation from evaluation: “The template deals with valuation, which is distinct from evaluation. The distinction inherent in these defined terms is that valuation addresses the estimation of value of a mineral property, whereas evaluation addresses the broader assessment of a mineral property for an investment decision (p. 2).”This is an important difference because the minerals industry commonly makes investment decisions using feasibility studies to evaluate a proposed mineral development and production project. The purpose of such investment-decision analysis is distinctly different from valuation of a mineral property, no matter where that property lies upon the mineral explorationdevelopment- production-reclamation timeline (Fig. 1). Valuation involves terms such as market value, just compensation, fair value, etc., whereas investment-decision analysis is concerned with the economic viability of a given proposed project. Although feasibility analysis and market valuation can both use discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis as a tool, the formulation of the DCFs and their interpretation are different."

Nov 1, 2019

By Leandro de Arruda Santos, Lorena Isabela de Oliveira Ribeiro, Jéssica Dornelas Silva, Pedro Damas Resende, João Victor Lucas Amim, Suzanny Cristina Soares Martins, Vicente Tadeu Lopes Buono

O objetivo do presente estudo foi avaliar a resistência à fadiga de duas ligas de NiTi diferentes sob condições de teste controladas por deformação a 25°C por meio de testes de fadiga por flexão rotativa. Além disso, as propriedades mecânicas, térmicas e estruturais dos fios foram caracterizadas por ensaios de DSC, DRX, MEV/EDS e tração. Os resultados revelaram que ambos os materiais são superelásticos à temperatura ambiente e, portanto apresentaram composição basicamente austenítica de sua matriz. Os resultados de ensaio de tração são condizentes com a caracterização térmica e estrutural, pois os materiais apresentam recuperação total de forma após ciclos de carga e descarga em tração. Ambos os materiais são ricos em titânio, um deles apresenta camada de óxido superficial enquanto o outro apresenta acabamento superficial. Apesar das propriedades similares a amostra 1 apresentou média de 77 ciclos até a falha, enquanto a amostra 2 resistiu a 1827 ciclos..

Oct 25, 2019

By Ernesto Furtado de Mello Neto, Eliezer Thuler, Claudio Vano Nunes, Carlos Alberto Cristofari

The Brazilian steel industry is dealing an adverse scenario with direct competition from global emerging markets. In this scenario, the need to improve asset operational performance, makes complex studies involving technical knowledge and asset life behavior, become important tools to support companies strategic accomplish. These studies allow consider performance, costs and operational risks relationship in the decision make process. The Asset Management approach support these studies in order to observe the whole asset life cycle, understand value chain through all company process and optimize the asset economic life. In this context, the present technical work has the purpose to support asset management decision making regarding ArcelorMittal Vega cold rolling drive motors, through the motors fail behavior modelling and estimated the risks involved in asset management decision. Through the Reliability, Availability and Mantenability (RAM) analysis, simulations were performed considering the failure, repair cost data and investments to build options to mitigate the operational risks.

Oct 9, 2019

By Andrelio Marcos Ribeiro, Lucio Ribeiro Camisao, Antonio Carlos Ataíde, Alan de Sousa Pereira, Renato Siqueira Campos

The annealing and pickling line n. 1, responsible for the production of stainless steel 3xx, 4xx and 430a in thicknesses from 4 to 0.4 mm, has two vertical strip accumulators. These are intended not to let the material exceed the determined time in the furnace and in the pickling, and consequently do not cause defects like burning and excessive pickling. Strip accumulator n. 1 avoids the line from stopping during welding execution of the coils in the welding machine. In sequence, the strip accumulator n. 2 avoids the line from stopping at the end cutting of the tips, and in the coils removal from the pickling. The strip accumulators have a roller table that during the strip accumulation moves vertically downwards while its counterweight moves vertically upwards, and do the inverse movement when the material is released. On December 12th 2018, the failure occurred in the strip accumulator n. 1, where it was verified that the shaft of one of the pulleys had been fractured by high-cycle mechanical fatigue, which was characterized by alternating bending. With the fracture of the shaft, occurred the unevenness of the counterweight that damaged the guides. Failure analysis of this occurrence was based on the PDCA methodology, when was verified a weld between the shaft and the pulley. The analysis of the microstructure transformation in the molten zone, in the heat affected zone and in the base metal was carried out in an optical microscope, and no abnormality was observed. It was also carried out the end test by penetrating liquid, finding an inadequate weld in its geometry, as well as longitudinal trunks along the center of the weld bead. However, after a huge investigation of the causes, it was found that the failure was triggered by an inadequate design of the pulley shaft. It was also verified that the shaft had an open measure, inadequate for the operational context. After the analysis, action plans were drawn up based on the FMEA methodology to inhibit the failure recurrence.

Oct 7, 2019

By Jovanir Francisqueto, José Fagundes, Nayara Neves Coutinho, Marco Túlio Costa

The purpose of this project is to increase the visibility of which will be daily produced on the hot strip mill (HSM). The forecast was performed through the implementation of an automated tool for weekly HSM production planning. The project was started with the definition of the weekly planning process, through the determination of the main business objectives, like as: priorities of service (customers and delivery date), definition of HSM’s rules and restrictions of operating resources. Using a sophisticated mathematical model, through the computational simulation is possible the experimentation of various production scenarios, allowing the visualization of volumes by type of sequence, clients / priorities, mix to be produced, cylinder change quantity forecast, better forecasting of the productivity of the HSM, consumption of utilities, within others. Main benefits: sequencing which production orders should be produced, reducing unforeseen stops due lack of material, improving the quality of the stock which allows the reduction of the aging of slabs in the slabyard and the vision of customer services. Computational simulation as a weekly planning tool achieve, with other benefits, to present alternatives for better decision making.

Oct 6, 2019

By Ivan César Lopes Diniz, César Romero Afonso Goulart Júnior

Mandrels are tools applied to manufacturing seamless tubes. In VSB plants (Vallourec Soluções Tubulares do Brasil), it is used in two mills. Mandrel and PQF Mills. This is an expensive tool due its alloy (hot work tool steel – AISI H13) and lengh (between 12 meters and 22,5 meters). An opportunity to apply mandrels from PQF in Mandrel Mill has been identified. However, mechanical properties of PQF mandrels must be improved. This work presents the heat treatment process of Quenching and Tempering developed internally at VSB to improve PQF mandrel properties aiming to achieve Mandrel Mill requirements. Hardness and metallography tests were performed before and after some steps of the heat treatment to characterize and validate the process.

Oct 5, 2019

By Fábio Heiji Yamada, Marcelo Koiti Fugihara, Ruano Fonseca Araujo

Conception the simulation and optimization technologies for industrial processes applied in the mining environment: tools and methodologies. Clarifications provided about the differences of these techniques when compared with static analysis (intuition, use of static spreadsheets, etc.). Presentation of practical cases at several big mining companies in Brazil. These projects will be presented and illustrated through dynamic simulation models developed at those companies, each one with its set of objectives, scope and results (for example: sizing the number of equipment, silo, piles related to the mining processing, logistics, ROM transportation, mine operations plan, etc.).

Oct 3, 2019

By Aaron Samuel Young, Hiago Antunes Amador de Oliveira, William Pratt Rogers

Low commodity prices and lack of new high-grade deposits are pushing the mining industry for innovation. Lean mining has been vastly discussed in the past decades as a way to continuously improve mining efficiency. Although very theoretical, lean mining presents a set of new solutions enabled by the digital transformation that the mining industry is going through. This paper proposes a framework for a short interval control system with the purpose to allow timely responses by front line supervisors upon operational deviations. In the first part, the author briefly reviews concepts of short-range planning and lean mining. Then, the materials and methods used for the development of the short interval control system are discussed. Finally, alpha trial results are presented, and next steps discussed.

Oct 3, 2019

By Raíza da Silva Juvenal, Suelen Silva Rocha, Artur Ângelo Alcântara de Assis, Jorge Luiz Valença Mariz

Um estudo de viabilidade econômica deve considerar parâmetros e incertezas inerentes a um projeto para produzir resultados econômicos consistentes, fornecendo ao investidor uma ferramenta de tomada de decisão. O presente estudo objetivou efetuar inicialmente a avaliação econômica convencional do cenário realista de uma mineração de agregados em fase de implantação localizada em Pernambuco, cujo Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) obtido foi R$ 24.006.309,20, o que representa um resultado positivo. Através da metodologia de Monte Carlo foi efetuada uma análise de risco considerando incertezas em 100.000 cenários, nos quais nove variáveis assumiram valores estocásticos dentro dos domínios definidos, produzindo assim uma distribuição estatística do VPL ao invés de um único número, sendo ainda efetuada uma análise de sensibilidade para identificar e quantificar as variáveis que mais impactam no resultado da avaliação. Por fim, os dois fatores mais influentes identificados na análise de sensibilidade inicial foram isolados e submetidos a uma nova análise de risco em outros 100.000 cenários. Foi concluído que o projeto é economicamente viável e que a probabilidade de gerar lucro aos investidores é de 99,77%, embora a probabilidade do VPL ser igual ou maior que o previsto pelo método convencional seja de 49,98%.

Oct 3, 2019