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By George Rice

SINCE my earliest recollection, the coal business has been in a state of unrest. It has always been a matter of bewilderment to the serious thinking, the instability of this most important industry; second only to agriculture in its effect on the great development of this country, and even more important in certain aspects, because without fuel railroads could not run, agriculture could not get its products to market, nor would the great manufacturing enterprises have been possible. I will not attempt to discuss the present serious -labor dispute or similar disagreements of the past; in the settlement of which more or less successful attempts have been made to equalize, temporarily at least, natural conditions through "joint agreement" as to prices paid labor; but will confine my views to the general underlying conditions of which the disputes are symptoms, and try to show how these must be remedied before there can be any hope of stabilizing conditions.

Jan 5, 1922

By C. Upthegrove

DURING the past year considerable work dealing with physical properties of cartridge brass was done at the University of Michigan in cooperation with the Ordnance Department of the U. S. Army. This paper gives some of the data bearing on the effect of the anneal, previous to the final reduction or rolling, on the physical properties, particularly the hardness. Various phases of the subject of physical properties of cartridge brass have been presented by different investigators. Mathewson and Phillips1 refer to the work of Grard, in 1909, as the first systematic presentation of the relation between temperature-and time of anneal; changing of physical properties and microstructure, and the previous reduction by cold rolling. They discuss the relation between time and temperature of anneal and the previous reduction by cold rolling also; the relation between physical properties and grain size of annealed brass. The degree of deformation previous to the annealing was found to determine the temperature at which recrystallization and corresponding changes in physical properties would take place. Bassett and Davis,2 in establishing the relation between grain size and Brinell hardness; found the hardness for low-temperature annealing to be dependent on the previous degree of reduction, while for anneals above a certain temperature the hardness after the anneal was independent of the degree of reduction. Actual differences in hardness, due to the degree of reduction, disappear only on annealing at 600° C. or above; though the differences for metal subjected to different degrees of reduction and annealed at temperatures between 350° and 600° C. were found to be relatively small. In their determination of the relationship of grain size to Brinell hardness, Bassett

Jan 5, 1922

By Eugene McAuliffe

TWO years ago the American Institute of Mining and Metallurgical Engineers made a memorable contribution toward a better understanding of the problems that have for many years confronted the coal industry. Specific suggestions toward betterment were then advanced, certain of which were taken up, amplified and endorsed by men who were conscien-tiously interested in the work of lifting this great industry out of the morass it has lain in for years. Two certain suggestions then made-provision for seasonal variations in railroad freight rates that would tend to encourage the purchase and movement of coal during the low summer production period, and provi-sion for the collection by the United States Government of all the facts surrounding the industry-were intro-duced in the form of legislation in the United States Senate by a member of that body, a man whose personal character, antecedents and business training put him above and beyond all suspicion of demagoguery; however, as the result of the insistent, vindictive opposition of the industry itself, these two bills, con-structive in their nature, were buried under an ava-lanche of misrepresentation. Today, with all mines that employ union labor at a stand still, the work of stabilizing the industry is yet before us. As aptly stated by Herbert Hoover, in March, 1920, when he was president of the Institute; An engineering organization is particularly the body to under-take this work. It is an economic problem, an engineering pro-blem within the ken of our experience; it is a problem that requires not only constructive thought but quantitative thought and wise social thought. The engineers of the United States occupy a position midway between capital and labor. They enter upon problems of this kind without prejudice either way, and they have that faculty of mind for quantitative thought, as distinguished from qualitative thought, that takes such problems as this out of the region of politics into the region of matter-of-fact solution.

Jan 5, 1922

By Edwin Ludlow

THERE has been so much misinformation sent out through the newspapers, and I find so few people who are really acquainted with the true facts in regard to the coal strike, that I feel it would be advan-tageous to present the facts as I have been able to gather them. One of the great points that the miners are now mak-ing is the fact that the operators of the central competi-tive field, consisting of the states of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, have refused to meet them in a joint conference such as has been customary in previous years. There are two reasons why the operators de-clined to hold such a meeting. In the first place, the last time they held a meeting of this kind they were all indicted under the Sherman Act for making an agree-ment in restraint of trade. In the second place, the miners at their convention did not authorize their dele-gates to negotiate a new contract, but instructed them that nothing less than a scale based on the present wage, with the addition that there should be a six-hour day, a five-clay week, time j and a half for over time, and double time for Sundays, would be accepted. These additions would very much increase the cost of coal over the present wage scale. The operators could not consider renewing a contract on the present scale, as it would mean ruin for them, and as the miners were not authorized to negotiate a new scale on a fair basis that would enable the operators to mine coal in competi¬tion, with the open-shop mines the operators did not feel that there was any use in meeting the delegates. Thirty per cent. of the output of bituminous coal comes from the open-shop mines of West Virginia, Alabama and Pennsylvania. During the strike, in 1919, this 30 per cent. was increased to 50 per cent. and it has affected the operations of the union mines to such an extent this year that they have been able to run only 15 to 30 per cent. of their time, while the open shop mines have run from 60 to 80 per cent. as the wages in these mines had been reduced to the 1917 scale.

Jan 5, 1922

By B. Woyski

MANY writers, in discussing defects caused by oxidation and gassing of bronzes and red brasses advocate substantially the same cure for both. But from its nature, oxidation cannot take place if there is an excess of fuel in the furnace, while the gases absorbed by some alloys are products of incomplete combustion of the fuel. Hence the metal can be either oxidized or gassed, but it is doubtful whether these actions can take place simultaneously. Oxidation can be easily overcome by the use of deoxidizers or it may be avoided by protecting the molten metal with suitable fluxes. Absorption of gases is more difficult to overcome. The regulation of the air and fuel, so as to produce complete combustion, and the protection of the bath by mineral fluxes are the most important factors. Gas expulsion, resulting in gas holes, porosity, unsoundness, and swollen or cauliflower-headed risers, is said to have several causes. One writer' lists the most common causes in the order of their importance, as follows: Superheated metal, dirty or slaggy furnace conditions, using metals low in quality or those previously subjected to bad melting practice, poor grade of fuel, use of newly lined or damp ladles, indiscriminate mixing of scrap or illogical combinations of metal. Superheating the metal usually occurs when the heat is ready to be poured but for some reason must be held in the furnace. In this case, a careful furnace tender tries to avoid overheating the metal by keeping a mild fire; that is, a reducing fire which, unfortunately, results in gassing the metal. A dirty, slaggy furnace may result in gassing the metal by retarding the heating and prolonging the time necessary to bring the metal to the proper temperature, thereby increasing the chances of gassing in uncertain furnace atmosphere.

Jan 5, 1922

THE Mining Methods Committee during the past year has spent much of its time developing the interest of members of the Institute in the work that comes under its direction. The response on the part of the membership has been most encouraging and in order to give a concrete form to the program which it hopes to develop, an "Outline for Papers on Mining Methods" has been drawn up and is herewith submitted for consideration. This outline has slowly taken shape until it now represents ideas contributed by a great many men, and it is hoped that it will be suggestive and helpful in the preparation of papers. This program can be used for the preparation of papers covering single large operations or, preferably, as the basis for a description of methods and the presentation of results obtained either in different districts or in different branches of the industry. The Committee presents this outline for the consideration of the various Sections of the Institute with the request that they will endeavor to interest the members of the Sections in covering comprehensively the mining operations with which they are connected. It is not the plan of the Committee to publish a paper on every mine, giving all the details outlined, but rather that an engineer familiar with a district prepare the general information and engineers of each important mine in the district compile the specific information of the mine with which they are connected. The general information and the specific information shall be sent to the Committee, and with this information the Committee will prepare a paper on the results obtained under the various mining methods in the different districts. The Committee requests that all papers shall be compiled under the direction of the Chief Engineer of the company and then submitted to the General Manager before acceptance for publication or compilation and tabulation with other similar data. Where the study of this subject approaches the fields of other standing committees of the Institute, the

Jan 5, 1922

By E. H. Jr. Dix

DURING an investigation of high-strength manganese bronze by the Engineering Division of the Air Service, at McCook Field, Dayton, Ohio, particles of a "blue constituent" were noted in the microstructure of most of the bronzes examined. The constitution of the simple copper-zinc base alloy is still a matter of dispute in spite of the fact that the copper-zinc series is one of the oldest industrially important groups of alloys, and has received the early consideration of scientific research. The diagram, according to the most recent work,1 is shown in Fig. 1. The disputed questions involve the termination of the beta field and the line at 470° C. The earliest experimenter, Roberts-Austin, detected an arrest in some of his cooling curves at approximately this temperature and ascribed them to the formation of a eutectic; it has since been proved that there are no eutectics in this series. Shepherd2 was unable to detect any thermal arrests at this temperature; his diagram was essentially as shown in Fig. 1, except that the line at 470° C. was omitted and the beta phase carried down to normal temperatures. Later, Carpenter and Edwards,3 by a very painstaking research, definitely established the authenticity of the line but attributed it to the breakdown of the beta constituent into a eutectoid of alpha and gamma. Microscopic evidence of the formation of the eutectoid is doubtful and it seems more likely to be due to an allotropic change in the beta constituent as shown by Fig. 1. At least for practical purposes, it is more convenient to think of the structure of a 60-40 brass as a mixture of alpha and beta prime crystals rather than alpha plus an unresolvable eutectoid of "apparent beta" as it has often been called.

Jan 5, 1922

By Thomas Clagett

THE Pocahontas coal field comprises the area in Tazewell County, Va., and Mercer and McDowell Counties, W. Va., in which Nos. 3 and 4 Pocahontas seams of bituminous coal are mined. It is a mountainous region with ridges rising 300 to 1000 ft. (91 to 305m.) above the very narrow valleys and, except for some poorly kept farms along the tops of the ridges and the area occupied by the mining and coking plants and villages, is wooded throughout. First shipments were made from Pocahontas in 1883. There are now, about 100 mines, 95 per cent. of which are drift mines. At the end of 1920, approximately 298,000,000 gross tons of coal had been produced and 35,000 acres of coal mined. No. 3 seam is from 4 to 10 ft. (1.2 to 3 m.) thick, but the change is gradual and the thickness fairly uniform in any particular locality. It has a streak of bone, about 2 in. (5 cm.) thick, io which the coal adheres on both sides. In parts of the field this bone is replaced by hard slate, usually from 2 to 4 in. thick. The seam has a slate or fireclay bottom and a draw-slate top. No. 4 seam is from 65 to 80 ft. (19.8 to 24 m.) above No. 3 seam, and of minable section only in the western part of the field. It is from 3 to 8 ft. thick and has two streaks off bone, each from 1 to 2 in. thick. It has a fireclay or slate bottom and is overlaid by from 4 to 24 in. of a laminated coal and slate, locally termed "black rash," which is separated from the coal seam by about 3 in. of slate. This "black rash" averages about 25 per cent. ash, but contains some clean coal. The coal in both seams is quite soft. Cleavage sufficiently well defined to exert an influence on the mining is rare. Overlying strata are slates, shales, and sandstones, the sandstones predominating, extending from .30 to 1000 ft. above No. 3 seam. The strata directly above the. draw slate of No. 3 seam, or "black rash" of No., 4 seam, and up to the first sandstone are usually slates or shales, about 10 ft. thick over the

Jan 5, 1922

THE strike of the coal miners began on April 1, as had been expected, the entire force of unionized miners-both anthracite and bituminous-going out and making this the most widespread strike of record. Up to the present writing there has been no serious inconvenience to industry in general, the accu-mulated stocks of coal being large and the non-union mines having continued to make a substantial production. However, the union labor leaders, having concentrated their efforts toward inducing the non-union miners to go out also, met with some measure of success in certain fields and created a shortage of coking coal, which caused iron makers to bank a few furnaces. The strike of textile workers in New England spread further. Here and there, throughout the country there were sporadic troubles with the builders. Rail-way labor was the subject of continued palavers, which did not get anywhere. On the whole the events of April were in line with the forecast that this would be a year of labor troubles. In domestic politics, the soldier bonus bill, having been passed by the House, went to committee consider-ation in the Senate. Public opposition to it manifestly waxed. On the floor of the Senate the tariff bill was under consideration and is drawing nigh to passage, without there being much consideration of its probable economic consequences. It is going to be a very high tariff and there is much in it that is equivalent to subsidizing small and normally unprofitable industries at the expense of the people as a whole. Abroad affairs were more quiet, superficially at least; than they were in March. In Egypt, India and South Africa things calmed, down, so far as we know, but in Ireland there was continued turmoil. The Irish, having won their freedom to the same degree as the Canadians, have entered upon violent quarrels among themselves, more over phrases than anything .else, so far as we can see. Lloyd George obtained a spectacular vote of confidence from Parliament and thus postponed, the exigency of a general election.

Jan 5, 1922

DURING the month of March there was some lifting of the veil, revealing somewhat of the maelstrom in the economics and politics of the world. Great Britain was in throes of political controversy, with threats of resignation by Lloyd George and a general election to ensue. Ireland was uneasy with internecine squabbles. The leaders of the opposing sides have been summoned to London for a conference which Parlia-ment believes offers the only hope of a solution of the present difficulties. France, awakening more and more to grim realities, learned of a budget for 1922 calling for more than 50 billion francs, or nearly one-third of the estimated national production, with the prospect that after this deduction is made there will be nothing left over what is required for the immediate support of the, people, and that on a reduced scale. Germany, although hard at work, found itself coming closer and closer to financial collapse and repeated its intimations that it would be unable to keep up with the provisional payments of 31 million gold marks to the Reparations Commission every 10 days as arranged at Cannes. Russia suffered more acutely from the famine and there were evidences of political insubordination among the Ukrainians. Egypt was in trouble arising from determination to win independence. About the middle of March the complete independence of Egypt was established and that country passed into somewhat the same relation-ship toward Great Britain that Panama has to the United States. At the head of the Adriatic, Fiume came into notice again with disorders threatening to produce conflict between Italy and Jugoslavia. In the Near East there were forebodings of trouble through resumption this spring. of the war between Greece and Turkey.

Jan 4, 1922

By David White

THE search for potash salts in the great "Red Beds? region of the Southwest, conducted for several years by the U. S. Geological Survey, the work being carried on for a part of the time in coöperation with the Bureau of Economic Geology and Technology of the University of Texas, has resulted in the discovery, within shafting depth, of potash salts, apparently of workable thickness and commercial quality, and prob-ably of great extent. Definite information is lacking as to the exact thickness of the potash beds, the size and boundaries of the areas underlain by workable strata, and the locations of the deposits richest and most favorably situated for exploitation. Briefly to review the salient features, of the general situation: We have in the great Red Beds region of the southwestern United States, embracing portions of central Kansas, western Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and northern and western Texas, .a series of sandstones. shales, anhydrite beds, clays and limestones, which; through an interval of 1000 ft., more or less, carry beds of salt, estimated by Darton1 to contain over 30,000 billions of tons of rock salt. It is the greatest known salt field of the world. At some points the intercalated beds of rock salt, one of which is reported by the driller to exceed 300 ft. in thickness, aggregate, accord-ing to the drillers' records, over 1000 ft. The sedi-mentary strata are similar in composition to those carrying the potash deposits of western Europe, and they were laid down at the same time and under condi-tions which, in many respects at least, were similar The stratigraphy and character of the beds are des-cribed by Darton2 and a, part of the area and the reported aggregate thicknesses of salt are shown, with some revision after Darton, in the accompanying map Fig. 1. The assumption that in the great areas of shallow evaporation basins spread over -the vast base-level region of saline deposition in the Southwest during Permo-Triassic time, potash salts were in some places, and at different stages, thrown down in crystalline deposits associated with the beds of rock salt, anhydrite, and gypsum, is, geologically speaking, more than reason-able. They are to be expected, and the conviction that they are probably present has long been held both in the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology and Tech-nology, under Dr. J. A. Udden, and in the- U. S. Geological Survey. Accordingly, for many years, efforts to determine whether potash deposits are present in this region have been made, though under very great difficulties, such as insufficient funds for boring, hack of drilling on private initiative in the more promising regions, hack of interest at first on the part of the drillers and companies, and, hater, inadequacy both of the methods of boring and of the sampling, to reveal in definite terms the thickness-of any saline stratum of given composition.

Jan 4, 1922

By Augustus Locke

THERE are three matters related to ore-hunting which I wish especially to discuss here: first, the paucity of the special writings applying to it; second, the failure of scientists to concern them-selves importantly with it; and, third, resting on these conditions, certain possible activities for economic geologists. First, as to the writings. Geological papers. are being produced in the United States alone at the rate of 10 to 12 shelf-feet per year.1 But papers specifically for the ore-hunter would go in a slim, annual pamphlet; all that have ever been written would go in a briefcase. The art of technical ore-hunting-geology conceived as a guide to ore-has only a scant literature.

Jan 4, 1922

By J. Burns Read

IT IS the purpose of this paper to summarize, as far as possible, the metallurgical information and experience gained by the Ordnance Department, during the War, in the manufacture of artillery cartridge cases, to describe the tests to which artillery cartridge cases were put, and to summarize the knowledge and experience gained in this testing. The authors wish to acknowledge the aid given by manufacturers, army officers, and civilian employees of the Ordnance Department in obtaining these data. Artillery cartridge cases are cold drawn from circular disks punched from strips of rolled brass. The manufacture involves from 25 to 30 main operations, which are done almost entirely on a punch press. Descriptions of the operations have appeared in various periodicals and, therefore, will not be given here. After each cupping, or drawing, operation, except the last, the cases are annealed at from 540° to 650° C. (1000° to 1200°F.), to remove all the hardening stresses set up in the metal and to allow complete recrystallization. After each annealing, the cases are pickled in niter cake or sulfuric-acid solution and then washed in water to remove all traces of acid. In some instances, the cases are then immersed in a cyanide-salt solution, and afterwards rinsed in water, to remove the thin layer of copper that forms on the surface of the cases during the acid pickle. The last cold-drawing operation is followed, by the heading operation which, by flattening the head of the case on the outside, causes the metal to flow on the inside to approximately the proper finished dimensions. The mouth, or open end, is then annealed at 430° to 480° C. (800° to 900° F.) by immersion in a salt bath or by gas flames. After being washed, the cases are tapered, when they are ready for machining, inspection, and testing.

Jan 4, 1922

By Arthur Dwight

WE NOT have to go so very far back, when measured in actual years, to what may be considered the beginning of the industrial era of the great West, the discovery of gold in California in 1848, just 74 years ago. By a strange coincidence, this event occurred within a few days of the signing of the treaty with Mexico which ceded California to the United States. Needless to describe the mighty wave of humanity that hurled itself toward the setting sun in response to that call. The single thought in every one's mind was gold. The gold as they found it in placers or ledges could be so easily worked, and the product was so readily transportable, and available immediately as money, that practically no attention was paid to deposits of the base metals, in the treatment of which cheap transportation was a paramount con-sideration; consequently little progress was made in anything but gold mining until after the Civil War. The next great step was accomplished when East and West were united by the successful construction of the Union Pacific Railroad from Omaha across the great plains and through the Rockies to meet the rails of the Central Pacific coming eastward across the Sierras. The industrial history of our great West really dates from the day when those two hands of steel were joined, on the shores of the Great Salt Lake at Prom-ontory Point,. May 10, 1869. That seems a long time ago when we think of the enormous changes that have been wrought since that day, and when we regard the rich empire that has sprung up in that western land. Into the new empire thus made accessible, by this first thread of steam transportation, flocked a new brood of adventurous spirits from the older communities of the East. This way walked Fate; and as she, went, flung far the line of destiny, That bound an untracked continent to brotherhood from sea to sea; That long gray trail of dream and hope, marked mile by mile with graves that keep On every barren hill and slope some stout heart lost in dreamless sleep. Patience and faith and fortitude were willed to it and justified; Stern, homely virtues, plain and rude, eternal as the sky and wide. Nor ever sea-king dared the sea in sterner mood than these who went Strong armed to wrest from Mystery their birthright, half a continent.

Jan 4, 1922

By Valentine Garfias

THE various phases of the Mexican oil industry have received so much publicity that there is little to add to the discussion of present and future production, extent and importance of prospective fields, and status of petroleum legislation, to mention but a few of the angles of the Mexican oil problem. However, out of this wealth of information, which is generally of contradictory nature, the average petroleum man is at a loss to know something definite regarding the various questions involved so, keeping the foregoing in mind, it has been the writer's aim to record in a concise form the most reliable and up-to-date information regarding the salient features of the Mexican oil situation. PRESENT STATUS OF MEXICAN OIL INDUSTRY Production During 1921 The Mexican oil fields, during 1921, produced in round numbers 203,000,000 bbl. of which 176,000,000 bbl., or 86 per cent., were exported, the bulk of -these exports, or about 73.3 per cent., going to the United States. The Mexican exports were divided by grades as follows: Light crude, 47.0 per cent.; heavy crude, 22.0 per cent.; tops, 3.5 per cent.; fuel oil from light crude, 24.0 per cent. The balance, or 3 1/2 per cent., includes the bunker fuel shipments and the coastwise trade in Mexico, which is not classified as to grades. The figures show that, in importance, the light-oil fields from about 755 per cent. of the Mexican petroleum industry.

Jan 4, 1922

By W. R. Ingalls

SOME months ago, I had occasion to make an investigation that introduced the subject of blue powder that is produced as a byproduct in zinc dis-tillation. Although every zinc smelter is aware that more or less blue powder production is inevitable and there is a common practice as regards the treatment of it, the specific and quantitative data respecting the subject were more imperfect than would have been expected. I had reports from eight important works. Some of the data were especially determined for my investigation. Speaking generally, there is a good deal of uniformity in the figures, all of which show that the blue powder product, bears a large proportion to the ore originally charged into the retorts; that a large proportion of the retort capacity is devoted to the redistillation of blue powder; and that of the spelter product of a furnace about 30 per cent. is derived from blue powder, i.e., it is zinc that has been distilled twice. The figures from the works are given in the following table:

Jan 4, 1922

By F. L. Wolf

THE tests here described were made to obtain information regarding costs, efficiency, etc. of baking cores in an oil-fired oven, and two electric ovens, which were installed, early in 1920, in the core room of The Ohio Brass Co. and were used almost continuously during the rest of that year. Operating costs were rather high so a complete test was undertaken early in 1921. The ovens will be referred to as Nos. 1, 2, and 3. Nos. 1 and 2 are electric ovens of different makes while No. 3 is an oil-fired oven made by the firm that made No. 2. The three are equipped with similar ventilating devices. They have full-height doors at front and rear. The cores are placed on iron racks, which are lifted by Cowan trucks and rolled into the ovens through the front doors. When baked, they are removed through the rear doors. Fig. 1 shows the general plan of the electric ovens while Fig. 2 shows the plan of the oil-fired oven. Oven No. 1 is 91 in. (231 cm.) wide, 83 in. (210 cm.) high, and 79 in. (200 cm.) deep, inside measurements. The walls are constructed in, panels about 18 in. (46 cm.) wide and 4 3/16 in. (10.6 cm.) thick, packed with blocks of insulating material and covered with sheet iron. The concrete floor on which the ovens set is 13 in. (33 cm:) thick. A recess about 5 in. (13 cm.) deep was cut in the floor to provide room for the heating units. Channels and plates supported. on I beams serve as' supports for the trucks and racks. The ventilating system consists of a Sirroco No. 1 ½ fan, connected so as to draw air from the top of the-oven or from the room, through damper C, and to deliver it either to the bottom of the oven or to the floor; the delivery is controlled by the vane A. The fan and pipes are covered with ¼ n. (6.3 mm.) asbestos cement lagging.

Jan 4, 1922

By J. R. Finlay

THE other day, I fell into conversation with two gentlemen who desired to improve the condition of the people; so that the talk was semi-political. They seemed to agree that I was inclined to be "con-servative," "reactionary," perhaps an "evolutionist," looking upon "reform" with suspicion. Finally I rejoined somewhat in this manner: "You attach to me phrases that I have heard all my life but which convey no meaning to me. It is quite true that I do not make a fetish of terms like reform, liberty, democracy and so forth; neither do I worship the idea that `things are good enough as they are,' `leave well enough. alone' and so forth. There is more satisfaction in building something up than in tearing something down, or in just maintaining something that is already built. Progress is a popular word; but what is progress? In my opinion it is comprised, so far as public welfare is concerned, of two elements: Improvements in production of goods and knowledge; improvements in keeping order." This substitute for politics, economics, reform, pro-gress, conservatism, radicalism, democracy, socialism, monarchism and all the phrases of public welfare may seem over-simple; perhaps it is, but at least it defines something. It seems to me to be at least worth attention.

Jan 4, 1922

By John Goodell

CIVIL engineers seem to number in their ranks more advocates of licensing than are found among the practitioners of other branches of the pro-fession. Licensing was not originated by civil engineers but it was forced upon them in two ways. In the first place, the civil engineering profession has hangers-on like every other profession. The first legislative result of their imperfect accomplishments with which I am familiar occurred in the far West. It was found that early irrigation works were so badly planned in some cases that not only were water rights made very uncertain but considerable sums were invested in structures and ditches which proved inadequate and occasionally complete failures. Water was too valuable to be wasted in that way and money too hard to obtain. In those sections, therefore, laws were passed many years ago which made it obligatory for the design of irrigation works and other structures utilizing water to be made by engineers who had satisfied a board of examiners that they possessed the technical qualifications to plan such works properly. The basic thought on which such laws rest is the same as that on which laws governing the licensing of boiler operators rest, namely, the safety and welfare of the public. While boiler explosions still occur and irrigation works are built which are not wholly satis-factory, these laws have helped the, public, it is gener-ally agreed.

Jan 4, 1922

By Joseph Pogue

IN 1920, 531 million barrels of crude petroleum were consumed in the United States. As imposing as this figure is, the fact that the domestic consumption of crude petroleum has increased at an average rate of 10 per cent. a year for the past decade is more striking. Will this rate of increase in demand continue? If so, the year 1930 will call for 1260 million barrels of petroleum-a staggering volume. On the other hand, may we expect the demand for petroleum to grow as rapidly as it did when the automotive industry was having its most phenomenal expansion? If not, to what extent will the growth of oil requirements decrease? When and to what degree will the petroleum industry become affected by the economic law of diminishing returns? Obviously, this matter requires careful analysis, especially as both national and industrial planning must be predicated upon present estimates of the requirements of the future. The purpose of this paper, accordingly, is to project, as closely as present limitations of knowledge permit, the course of the demand for petroleum in the United States over the next ten years. At first, the problem of estimating the future of a demand as complex as that for petroleum might appear insoluble. Fortunately, however, there are several scientific methods of approaching the problem, centering around a study of rates of industrial growth, which lend considerable hope that the requirements of the immediate future in this field may be approximated with sufficient closeness to have practical value as a basis of action.

Jan 3, 1922