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By E. K. H. Goh

A reliability-based engineering design approach for the effective design of reshaped spoil dumps was developed with the aim of obtaining structurally reliable spoil dumps at optimum reshaping costs. The aim was also to satisfy environmental erosion standards and community expectations. This approach encompasses the linking up of three major components: erosion appraisal of spoil dump designs, reliability-based engineering design of spoil dumps and costing of spoil dump reshaping practices. This paper addresses the application of the reliability-based engineering- design approach to the assessment of spoil dump designs for erosion control. Included are various types of erosion prediction models and reliability-based engineering-design analytical techniques. Also included is a case study that demonstrates the application of this approach.

Jan 1, 2000

By Timothy Stark

Blasters are usually strictly liable for injury or damage caused by flyrock (trespassory invasion) and blast-induced vibrations (non-trespassory invasion). The application of strict liability to non-trespassory invasions has resulted in significant litigation that has hampered the use of blasting and the blasting industry. Stark (2002) proposes that blasters should not be held strictly liable for non-trespassory invasions but should be liable only if their conduct is proven to be negligent. This change in legal standard was proposed because improvements in blasting technology over the last thirty years allow blasting to be conducted without substantial risk of harm to property and thus the amount of harm imposed by a blast can be related to the level of care exercised by the blaster. It is anticipated that a negligence standard will reduce the amount of litigation because a plaintiff will have a greater burden to overcome. To facilitate the acceptance of a negligence standard by a court of law, this paper summarizes the standard of care using the 1977 Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, extensive U.S. Bureau of Mines research, and current blasting techniques, such as blasting mats. It is important for the blasting industry to promulgate a standard of care so a judge can feel confident that blasting can be routinely and systematically controlled and if the legal standard is changed from strict liability to negligence a subsequent judge or jury will be able to evaluate the level of care exercised by the blaster. This paper also suggests that the industry and/or ISEE develop and disseminate a comprehensive standard of care that courts can use to further justify a change from strict liability to negligence and evaluate the standard of care.

Jan 1, 2003

By D. H. Whiting, A. J. Sinclair

"The San Antonio gold mine, in the Archean Rice Lake Greenstone Belt, was in continuous production from 1932 to 1968, during which period the mine yielded 1.35 million ounces (41 985 kg) of gold and 195,000 ounces (6065 kg) of silver from 4.88 million tons (4.44 Mt) of ore for average grades of 0.28 ounces per ton (9.0 g/t) gold and 0.04 ounces per ton (1.3 g/t) silver. After the 1968 closure, several publications appeared implying that gold grade of ore decreased with increasing depth.Recent observations by the authors show that the relatively low grades in the middle levels of the mine are controlled geologically. However, the reduced average are grade in the lower levels of the mine was due to inadequate mining control that led to a high level of dilution. The similarity of geological factors such as vein styles within structural domains, variations in mining control, recent ore muck sampling results and lithogeo chemical profiles all indicate the similarity of ore in both upper and lower levels.Strict mining control should yield improved grades of gold for future production from the lower levels at San Antonio, in contrast with the production grades of the late 19605that represented extensively diluted ore. High-quality production records are an essential component in re-evaluating a past producer, particularly where workings are accessible. Poorly founded conclusions which cannot be checked by access to workings can have a negative impact on the evaluation procedure."

Jan 1, 1990

By A. S. Macfarlane

This paper describes how knowledge of the orebody morphology and ore morphology can be used to optimize the planning, mining, and metallurgical output from an open pit copper mining operation, such as to significantly increase the stability of the whole value chain process, and increase the reliability and value of the process outputs. In the case under consideration, the orebody contains both copper and cobalt. This in itself provides a challenge, in that the two metals do not occur in consistent ratios across the orebody as a whole. Furthermore, mineralogical differences within the orebody have a significant impact on plant performance in terms of throughput rates, acid consumption, and recoveries. In order to stabilize and optimize the plant performance, it is necessary to firstly have a complete understanding of the geometallurgical factors that affect performance, and then to have a sound knowledge of how these are distributed within the orebody. These models then inform the mine planning strategy that optimizes cash flow and NPV, and also allow the development of a stockpiling strategy that not only stabilizes the plant, but also allows variations in the plant feed according to ore type and grade in volatile price scenarios. Integral to the realization of these opportunities is the establishment of an appropriate measuring, control, and reconciliation system, customized to the optimization objectives. The paper describes how all of these factors and strategies can be integrated to produce optimal value from the orebody through to final dispatched product. It also shows the significant value that can be released through such an approach.

Jan 1, 2014

By Charles W. Huggins

To determine the nahcolite and dawsonite content in oil shales, the Bureau of Mines compared X-ray diffraction, infrared spectroscopy, thermal methods, and a previously published method by Smith and Young based on the selective solubility of sodium compounds. The Smith and Young method and a new method based on the weight of carbon dioxide produced by thermal decomposition are recommended for determining nahcolite. X-ray diffraction and the Smith and Young method are recommended for determining dawsonite. X-ray diffraction, infrared spectroscopy, and differential thermal analysis were useful for identifying other minerals in the samples.

Jan 1, 1973

By D. A. Paice, A. B. Shimp

Illegitimate loads on a mine dc power distribution system can be detected by measuring a superimposed ac current. To implement such a scheme, a 10-volt, 3-kHz voltage is applied at each dc power substation. By this means, the mine dc power distribution network, consisting of a feeder and trolley wires with a grounded rail return, is caused to serve also as a 3-kHz ac distribution network.

Jan 1, 1975

By A. C. Fieldner

In the course of its investigations on the properties of coal and in rendering fuel-inspection service to other agencies of the Government, the Bureau of Mines has accumulated a comprehensive file of coal analyses that includes data on virtually every coal field of commercial importance in the United States. As knowledge of the composition of coal is potentially valuable to every user of coal, the Bureau publishes its analytical records. Before 1921 such publications contained analyses of coal from all parts of the United States; individual analyses or average analyses of a series of shipments of coal were given with the name and location of the mine producing the coal. Beginning in 1921 the analyses were published by separate States because the quantity of data had become so great. The separate papers published to date, with Bureau of Mines Technical Paper numbers, are as follows: Alabama, 347; Arkansas, 416; Colorado, 574; Illinois, 634 and 641; Indiana, 417; Iowa, 269; Kansas, 455; Kentucky, 30S; Maryland, 465; Missouri, 366; Montana, 529; New Mexico, 569; Ohio, 344; Oklahoma, 411 ; Pennsylvania (bituminous), 590; Tennessee, 356; Utah, 345; Virginia, 365; Washington, 491 and 618 (618, published in 1941, supplements 491); West Virginia, 405 and 626; and Wyoming, 484. From time to time the various papers will be revised to include later analyses and other data. The Bureau of Mines annually receives many inquiries as to the composition of coals obtained from specific localities or, conversely, as to the localities from which a given kind of coal may be obtained. This paper presents a summary, in tabular form, of the composition of commercial coal resources of the country. Specimen analyses are given exemplifying the analysis of coal mined in each coal-producing county, or, where it was feasible, coal from each bed in each county; also, ranges of analyses, within which the composition of most of the coal represented will fall, are given where there were enough analyses to permit satisfactory determination of the ranges. In addition, the degree of metamorphism from lignite toward anthracite of much of the coal is indicated by the classification by rank. This classification reveals to more experienced users of coal some of the general properties of coal, that is, whether the flame will be long or short, whether the coal will cake in the fire, and how it is likely to behave on exposure and in storage.

Jan 1, 1942

By William N. Poundstone

Since World War II, when off-track mining became popular, mining machinery has undergone much change. However, the change has been basically to make the machines more powerful, more productive and more reliable. Little change has been made, in this period, in the basic mining system. While steady improvement was made in productivity until the passage of the new Federal Coal Mine Health & Safety Act, I believe that the cost Co benefit ratio of further improvement from this basic approach of improving the existing extractive tool is not as promising as I believe may be obtained from a new approach. Consequently, six years ago Conoco and Consol undertook a comprehensive long-range R&D program to see if improvements of a more basic nature could be made in underground mining. We concluded early in our program that while many things currently limit the rate of production such as the rate at which roof can be supported, time needed to advance ventilation systems, time required to clean up and rock dust, time required to maintain and service equipment as well as time lost due to haulage deficiencies, that the key to improvement was a truly flexible continuous high capacity haulage. With face equipment in use today, mining rates can be increased with such a haulage system where the ability to support the roof exceeds the ability of conventional haulage equipment to remove the coal. More importantly, if we could develop such a system, it would set the stage for development of far more sophisticated methods of mining at the face than exist today, and as new and more dependable mining machines and methods are developed, continuous transportation will enable the gains envisaged in production to be realized.

Jan 1, 1974

By Sandeep Upadhya, Marc Morgan, Baljinder Bassi, James Fletcher, Mike Deevy, Nishant Nayan

"In order to protect public safety in the event of a deliberate fire attack, underground rail authorities are increasingly considering the need to design for arson-initiated fire scenarios. Where typical design fires for modern rolling stock mean a peak fire size is reached after 12 minutes, an arson-initiated fire reaches its peak within 2-3 minutes. We present the innovations required to successfully incorporate this requirement on a recent design-build project. In stations 3D modelling is used to optimise smoke reservoir designs, smoke chimneys, station boxes and tunnel geometry to allow coordination with structural requirements. In tunnels, novel coupling of one dimensional network modelling and 3D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to improve assessment of complex fire scenarios. Finally, the impact on tunnel structures is assessed through comparison with standard time-temperature curves and risk of explosive spalling. INTRODUCTION An increasing regulatory environment and the appreciable influence that terrorist incidents have had on public safety policy have motivated the need to protect against large arson fires, especially in civil structures and public transport systems. With a greater reliance of a growing urban population on underground subway systems, design of such infrastructure is continually being reassessed and developed worldwide. Underground rail authorities are paying increased consideration to the design of fires - with properties beyond the upper regions of growth and intensity - amongst arson fire studies. Use of fire hardened materials on modern rolling stock means fires caused accidentally can be expected to develop relative slowly. However, recent experiments involving large initiating fires (as would result from an arson attack) have shown rapid fire growth rates and flashover leading to greater maximum heat release rates, Hadjisophocleous (2012), White (2010), and Lönnermark, et al. (2015). This paper describes the challenges and innovations required to complete a detailed design to control smoke from such aggressive super-fast growing fires. Computational modelling is used to demonstrate the required smoke control design by configuring the mechanical exhaust system combined with careful coordination with the architectural and structural design. The design objectives are to provide tenable egress paths in accordance with NFPA 130 (2014) and fire-fighting access. Finally, analysis of the design fire is used to inform the tunnel lining design, reducing the risk of explosive spalling, protecting the asset in the event of a severe fire."

Jan 1, 2016

By Detlef Ehlert

Energy efficiency is coming to the center of attention in the metallurgical and rolling mill industry due to increasing energy costs, limited resources and political requirements. Also, a green image and energy efficient production is a clear competitive advantage. SMS Siemag, being familiar with automation and measurement equipment, provides an energy data management system which gives transparency over the energy consumptions. All energy relevant media including electricity, gas, water, compressed air and further more can be recorded. The system is manufacturer-independent and allows the use of already installed measuring technology with the possibility of subsequent extension. So potentials for improvement can be recognized and energy savings can be estimated and proven after the implementation of the measures. Being familiar with the processes in the metallurgical and rolling plants, the system by SMS Siemag allows the assignment of the energy data to the production and plant data. Only by this connection, the data can be reduced to key performance indicators allowing authoritative evaluation of energy efficiency. The results are clearly represented on dashboards and support the continuous improvement process. The system also supports the energy controlling with an automatic reporting system, cost center assignment and in support with certification according to ISO 50001.

Jul 30, 2018

By P. Bevilacqua, M. C. Williams, T. P. Meloy

We will bet you that, without prior programming within 10 minutes, we can design and simulate a 10,000 unit operation separation circuit. We will even do it at your place. We do it all the time. [ ] There are no tricks; we do it in a spreadsheet. We do it in those user friendly spreadsheet such as Quattro Pro. Spreadsheets must be user friendly. Accountants use them as do managers, business men, lawyers, doctors and salesmen. What these users seldom realize, is how powerful a mathematical tool a spreadsheet is. Among their other capabilities, spreadsheets can do a finite element analysis. That is why they are useful for accounting. That is also why they are more useful to engineers in the mineral industry. Spreadsheets are ideally suited for the engineering problems in the mineral industry. We have used then for solving problems in: a) mine ventilation; b) circuit design and optimization of dense media, flotation and sizing; c) comminution circuit design; d) shaking tables; e) Humphrey spirals; f) sluice ways and channel flow; g) lock particle and liberation problems; h) tunnel and shaft stress problems; i) cascadograph simulation; j) complex heat transfer problems; k) flow in porous media; and sheet flotation (Figure 1). Mineral industry problems presented on or with a spreadsheet are an excellent teaching instrument, problem statement and solution tools and sales devices. Spreadsheets answer easily, quickly and reliably many mineral industry engineering problems. What makes spreadsheets so useful to the mineral industry. The short answer is: they are easy to use; mineral industry problems fit the spreadsheet format. Those reasons are part of the answer. The real answer lies with the structure of the spreadsheet itself. Essentially, a spreadsheet is a "finite element analysis" form of computer software. Many mineral industry problems are readily solved by finite element analysis techniques. While some in the mineral industry may think they have never heard of finite element analysis, most use it weekly if not daily. Any profit and loss statement is essentially a finite element instrument. In fact, any array of numbers where one number is related to another may be construed as a finite element analysis product. Finite element analysis is a common daily activity. To get an appreciation of a finite element analysis, think of a monthly sales forecast for the next year. For each product and for each month, there exists a dollar figure for the forecasted amount of sales. In the forecast statement, for a given product in a given month, there is a "box" where the forecasted figure is presented. The forecast figure in that box was arrived at through some type of formula. The formula probably required some information from other neighboring boxes in the master forecast statement. Voila, one has a finite element analysis. Today the analysis would be done in a spreadsheet. A typical mineral industry problem is ventilation in an underground mine. Think of a rectangular room and pillar mining operation. Each room has air entering at a given pressure and velocity and air leaving at another pressure and velocity. During steady state, the air entering and leaving the room is determined by conditions in the adjacent rooms. One can readily model the room and pillar mine layout in a spreadsheet, and then find the flow in and out of each room at steady state. Change the flow by moving a brattice cloth or blocking off a path way and one gets a new air flow profile. Change the numbers on the spreadsheet that reflect

Jan 1, 1993

By S. Frimpong

Cable shovel requires continuous monitoring through excavation to achieve reliability, longevity and economic usage. The operating environment and the stress and deformation fields on the front-end assembly must continually be monitored to avoid random fatigue failure. In this paper, the authors advance frontiers of cable shovel reliability through real-time stress and deformation monitoring during excavation. Cable shovel boom stress and deformation analysis are developed using a combination of flexible and rigid body approach. A virtual prototype is developed to simulate the cable shovel excavation in oil sands and to examine the motion, stress and local deformation of the boom. A numerical example is used examine cable shovel boom durability using stress and deformation fields simulation. The results show that stress and deformation are large around the joint between the upper body and the boom. The simulation of the effect of material properties on boom deformation shows that the deformation is larger in hard formation than in soft formation. The study provides a solid foundation for further study of failure life analysis of the cable shovel components.

Jan 1, 2006

By S. Viswanathan, A. S. Sabau

"Dimensional changes between a pattern die and its corresponding investment casting part occur as a result of complex phenomena such as thermal expansion/contraction and hot deformation (elastic, plastic, and creep) during the processing of the pattern material (wax), mold material (shell) and solidifying alloy. Determining the pattern tooling dimensions is crucial to the dimensional control of the investment casting process. To date, computational methodologies have not been applied to the prediction of dimensional changes in investment castings.This paper deals with the evaluation of wax pattern dimensions, which is one important factor in determining pattern tooling dimensions in investment casting. Cerita 29-51, an industrial wax, is considered in this study. The wax pattern dimensions are determined by considering its thermo physical and thermomechanical properties, restraint of geometrical features by the metal die, and process parameters such as dwell time, platen temperature, injection pressure, and injection temperature.IntroductionThe investment casting process involves making a disposable wax pattern by injecting wax into a metal mold, building a ceramic shell mold around the wax pattern by the application of a series of ceramic coatings to the wax pattern, dewaxing the ceramic shell mold, and casting the alloy into the shell mold. Dimensional changes between the pattern tooling and its corresponding cast part occur as a result of thermal expansion, shrinkage, hot deformation, and creep of the pattern .material (wax), mold material (shell), and solidifying alloy during the processing [1]."

Jan 1, 2001

By Mustafa Kumral, Yuksel Asli Sari

Underground mining operations are sensitive to price fluctuations because they usually perform with a narrow profit margin compared to open-pit mining. Furthermore, the economic evaluations regarding operation are based on estimated or simulated grades rather than actual values. These bring a high degree of uncertainty to the viability of an operation. Hence, mine planning that accounts for uncertainty is crucial for underground mining operations. As an underground mining technique, sublevel stoping has geotechnical, curing time, seismicity, cost minimization, and production requirements. A new mixedinteger linear program is proposed that considers the uncertainty associated with net present value using chance-constrained programming. The net present value (NPV) maximization objective is transformed into a multi-objective maximization problem where one objective is to maximize the mean NPV, and the other objective is to maximize the negative standard deviation multiplied by a scalar called risk or reliability level. The balance between the two objectives was maintained by this scalar and was selected based on the reliability level of the project. A case study was conducted with varying reliability levels, and sequences were generated. It was shown that the expected net present value increased at higher reliability levels, and the overall value of the objective function decreased as the reliability level increased. In other words, the variance component penalized the value of the objective function. Moreover, it was observed from the case study that at lower reliability levels, stope grade order bears similarity to the extraction order.

Aug 4, 2023

By Y Zhang, X Yi, J Deng, J Zhao, J Song

To obtain the combustion process of a coal fire, a high-temperature programmed system is used to simulate the spontaneous combustion process of fresh and weathered coals. Both fresh coal and weathered coals from Liulingou, Inner Mongolia, China, were used to examine the gas releases from constant temperature to 650°C. Moreover, gas release rate was used to calculate the characteristic temperatures. The results showed the coal samples lasted to oxidise under high temperatures, and released plenty of heat to assist self-heating. The humic acid contained inside the weathered coal went through thermal decomposition as temperature rising and generated gases. This resulted in increasing concentrations of CO, CO2, CH4, C2H4, and C2H6. Changes of CH4, C2H4, and C2H6 gases were also similar. For weathered coal, concentrations of three gases were kept in balance under low temperatures, increased rapidly with the temperature rising. After the ignition temperature, the concentration of hydrocarbon was reduced. In addition, particle size affected coal spontaneous combustion. Coal samples with less than 0.9 mm in size produced much more CO than others. This study has examined coal spontaneous combustion caused by coal weathering during mining and its impacts on self-heating and pyrolysis in the process.CITATION:Deng, J, Song, J, Zhao, J, Zhang, Y, Yi, X and Zhang, Y, 2017. Gaseous products of weathered coal during the process of spontaneous combustion, in Proceedings Australian Mine Vent Conference 2017, pp 79–84 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 28, 2017

By D. Donald Downey

Pilot Testing Ion Exchange Resin (IEX) can go from very simple beaker testing to complicated column testing. Space velocities, regenerant quantities, loading capacities, ion leakage, are all terms that get accumulated together to prove or disprove a resin’s (or resins’) ability to load a single ion (or specific set of ions). Not getting all the resin’s operating parameters correct will disqualify (or at least skew) the results. Laboratory tests for capacity, moisture content, bead size, metals fouling, etc.—what does it all mean? At last count, there were over twenty-five separate ion exchange resin tests (analyses) that were available to end users. Standard testing procedures identify the resin properties but more specific procedures can be used to identify problems with equipment operation. Then, there are the costs to consider; simple cation resin testing (moisture content, total capacity and bead integrity) is in the $200/sample range. However, add to this Chatillon, Russian Ball Mill Test, HIAC particle size, metals and % regeneration test procedures and the lab work can increase to over $1000/sample. In this paper, the author will explain the “must-do” pilot and test procedures and why they are important and the key to understanding how resin performs ion exchange.

By Paulo Braga, Carlos Junior, Silvia França

"Lithium is the lightest of the metals, with high reactivity and great electrochemical potential. It has a low thermal expansion coefficient and high caloric value, and it forms very light and resistant aluminium alloys. These properties make lithium an attractive element for use in battery manufacture and glass and ceramics production, in addition to its applications in the aeronautic industry. Today, two sources of raw material are economically viable for lithium production: pegmatite rocks and brine. The world production, in 2012, was approximately 150,000 tons of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent), almost triple the production in 2000. The forecasted consumption for the current year, 2013, was approximately 162,000 tons of LCE, and for 2020, it could be as much as 280,000 tons of LCE, stimulated essentially by the growth of world production of electric (EV), hybrid (HEV) and hybrid plug-in vehicles (PHEV), the batteries of which are based on Li-ions. With the growth of world demand and increasing prices, lithium minerals such as spodumene, petalite and amblygonite, once considered uneconomical for the production of lithium carbonate, are regaining their economic value. New projects to produce lithium compounds based on mineral sources are being developed in many countries, aiming to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.95% Li2CO3). Although Brazil has large lithium pegmatite reserves, the domestic production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide is very low, at approximately 600 tons of LCE, which represents 0.4% of the world production. The application of these products is mostly in the grease and ceramic industries. The national lithium market is under government protection due to its potential use for nuclear purposes. Thus, the industrialization activities and import and export of ores and lithium minerals, as well as organic and inorganic products, such as metallic lithium and lithium alloys, are controlled by the National Commission for Nuclear Energy (Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear - CNEN). The objectives of this work to quantify the real lithium demand in the Brazilian market, considering that a large amount of lithium is indirectly imported in the form of the Li-ion batteries used in equipment such as mobile phones, cameras, tablets, notebooks and e-bikes, and to compare this demand with the current national production of LCE. Finally, some technological alternatives will be discussed, with the aim of increasing the competitiveness of the lithium industry in Brazil."

Jan 1, 2014

By Carlos Oré Sánchez

La exploración minera desarrollada en el yacimiento de Poderosa- Pataz conlleva un mejor conocimiento de los controles y la metalogenia de la región. En ese sentido, el presente texto señala el uso del ?18O como indicador espacial en el yacimiento aurífero. Los resultados de esta metodología establecen que los segmentos analizados de las vetas que se encuentran al este, corresponden a los niveles superiores del yacimiento. y en contraparte, las porciones dispuestas al oeste, muestran la zona más profunda del distrito.

May 1, 2014

By B Jones, M Chappell

Installing ground support correctly is not an easy task, whether lack of operator training, poor ground conditions or underperforming equipment. Confirming the quality of installation can help with planning and remedial works and help to maintain a safe working environment. A 2?m bolt with 700?mm of encapsulation will pass a 10?t pull test (assuming ground conditions permit); however, it will not provide any data of the unencapsulated length and thus the ability to withstand corrosion. Complimentary testing in the form of non-destructive testing (NDT) can provide factual data that leads to the assessment of the quality of the encapsulation. By improving the quality of the encapsulation, the risk of corrosion is reduced, the ground support durability is improved and hence the asset life is enhanced.This paper presents a case study of a trial using the NDT system RokTel™. Installations of varying quality were installed and tested. The characteristics tested were corrosion, load and free length. These characteristics can be tested and assessed for cable bolts, thread bar bolts and split sets. The aim of this paper is to present NDT testing as a viable method for assessing installation quality and ongoing performance of the ground support.CITATION:Jones, B and Chappell, M, 2014. A non-destructive testing method for measuring bolt condition, in Proceedings AusRock 2014: Third Australasian Ground Control in Mining Conference , pp 307–314 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 5, 2014

By C. Pitzer

"Safety performance in many companies and even industries has stalled in the last decade. Accidents rates are at a “plateau” and yet, serious accidents and fatality rates are not. In more dramatic cases, such as in the BP Texas Refinery disaster, organizations that have “exemplary” safety statistics, suddenly have a catastrophic or multi-fatality event occurring. Classic examples are the Piper Alpha disaster and NASA’s Challenger and Columbia disasters, the BP’s Deepwater Horizon Rig disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. Looking into the causes of these accidents provides an insight into the events and deficiencies that led up to the accident, but what are the common features in the organization’s mindset, or its culture? What characterizes these organizations’ decision-making, their approach to safety and to risk and are there features that can be delineated? The research and review presented in this paper covers a period since1995, which started in the Australian resource industry and since then covered international events. The features of these organizations are summarized as the seven deadly delusions of near zero organizations (NZO) that suffered unexpected disasters, based on extensive research by the author. More recently, the massive West Fertilizer plant explosion in Texas, and the Train Disaster in Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, Canada underlined the same trends. Organizations may experience calamities not because they are bad, or unsafe, but because they have become “cult-like”. INTRODUCTION The train disaster of 6 July 2013, in the small town of Lac-Mégantic in Quebec, Canada, in which 47 people were killed, had many strange pre-cursorsso-called “black swan” events that have occurred in many different industries. Black swan events are so rare, that there is almost zero chance that they will ever occur again, but they are so calamitous that the responses to these are emotional and irrational, (but necessary) and in those responses, the seeds for other, different black swan events are put into place. It is not what we don’t do, or do wrong, that causes modern disasters, it is what we do. The same things in the culture that make us successful, may also cause the disasters. We slowly, incrementally and insidiously ‘float’ into disaster. One such Black Swan event: The Piper Alpha Oil Rig disaster, killing 167 men in the North Sea on the 6 September 1988, was one of the most pivotal events in safety around the world. It changed the thinking and focus of governments, whole industries and led to numerous books and papers. It resulted in new legislation, textbooks and a critical self-examination by the oil and gas industry."

Jan 1, 2016