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By J V. Mehrabani, A R. Sayadi

Adequate estimation of equipment costs is a key factor in a feasibility study and in evaluation of design alternatives for mining and mineral processing projects. Inaccurate early cost estimation could lead to the elimination of investment benefits. However, this estimation is complex and time consuming because of data accessibility problems and consequently access to a rapid, up-to-date and accurate tool is desirable for carrying out cost estimations.This paper describes the development of models for estimating capital and operating costs for a jaw crusher, which is used as the primary crusher for a wide variety of mineral beneficiation plants, applying single and multivariate regression analyses, together with the design of experiment approach, based on principal component analysis. Explanatory variables include gape size, length of feed opening and power as numeric (quantitative) variables and toggle type (single or double) and the existence of extra heavy duty construction as categorical (qualitative) variables. The performance of each model has been investigated and comparing the estimated R-squared (R2) of each model, the best was selected and its validity examined. The cost models include the capital and operating costs along with the operating cost components. The results indicate that the suggested best cost model is sufficiently accurate for use in feasibility studies.

Sep 26, 2011

By Michael Murphy, Khaled M. Mohamed, Berk Tulu

"Failures of coal ribs are major hazards in underground coal mines. For the period of 2010 to 2014, rib falls were the leading cause of groundfall fatalities and accounted for 35% of all groundfall-related fatalities. Currently, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is conducting a research project to develop an engineering-based design methodology for rib control in underground coal mines to reduce rib fall accidents and fatalities. Numerical models can be used as part of the design methodology provided the models are appropriately calibrated and verified.This paper presents a coal rib model to simulate the mechanism of coal deformation and fracturing that can lead to stress-driven rib falls. The proposed coal rib model was calibrated against published data from an instrumented rib site at the West Cliff Mine in Australia. Fracturing of the coal rib was defined by critical VALUES (of plastic shear strain of the coal material and rib displacement. A critical plastic shear strain of 2.8% and a sudden increase of rib displacement of 30 to 45 mm were sufficient to develop a fracture plane in the rib model. Accordingly, a discontinuous rib deformation was achieved and it compared favorably against field monitoring data.INTRODUCTIONCoal ribs are the vertical walls of coal formed when entries are developed in a coal bed. Failures of coal ribs are a major hazard in underground coal mines. Furthermore, failing ribs can contribute indirectly to roof and floor instability by increasing opening widths across intersections and entryways. Over the last 18 years, there has been a continual occurrence of injuries and fatalities in underground coal mines due to rib falls. For the period of 2010 to 2014, rib falls (excluding longwall face failure and bursts) were the leading cause of ground fall fatalities and accounted for 35% of all groundfall-related fatalities (MSHA, 2015)."

Jan 1, 2016

By C Killip

Working in Australia’s harsh climate can have a significant impact on the health, safety and productivity of our teams, but is our working environment expected to be more prone to heat stress in the future? Climate modelling suggests that we are likely to encounter more frequent heatwaves and higher apparent temperature. Does this mean that our teams will be at greater risk of heat stress, and are we prepared to deal with the changes in our future climate and the potential impacts on our working population? This paper will review the recent research on climate and projected changes to all meteorological parameters that are important in understanding the likelihood of heat stress. The paper will also describe the challenges encountered in the management of heat stress in a workforce, and then outline a systematic approach to heat stress management that will allow you to assess your own risk and manage your day-to-day operations into the future.CITATION:Killip, C, 2015. Future climate – is heat stress a real risk for the future and how can we better manage it?, in Proceedings Third International Future Mining Conference, pp 181–188 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 4, 2015

By T. W. Martin

In 1973 the percentage of total coal production mined by surface methods in the United States again increased, reflecting a long term trend. Barely three decades ago less than 10 percent of the U.S. coal was produced in this manner. Last year surface coal mines produced 299 million tons, 50.7 percent of our nation's coal. At present there are about 2450 strip mines producing coal in 23 states. While accident rates for surface coal mines are less than underground coal mining rates, surface coal mining is certainly one of the more hazardous occupations. Figure 1 shows the injury rates (fatal and non-fatal accidents) of major U.S. industries. Note that surface coal mining is more hazardous than all other industries except contract construction. Accident rates are about the same as the contract construction industry which uses similar equipment. A limited amount of detailed data was available on elements of surface coal mining jobs and this lack of compiled information made it difficult to assess the significance of the conditions contributing to accidents and to make recommendations that would reduce accident frequency. Therefore as part of the Bureau of Mines continuing research efforts related to the health and safety of the coal miner, a contract was awarded to Theodore Barry and Associates of Los Angeles to conduct an "Industrial Engineering Study of Hazards Associated with Surface Coal Mines."

Jan 1, 1974

By H. S. Price, F. N. Kissell, R. C. McCulloch, J. C. Edwards

"The methane em1ss10n from deep coalbeds which are actively mined is a serious problem facing the mining industry today. Pinpointing the source of methane and predicting the emission of this gas from these coalbeds is necessary if preventive techniques are to be effectively used to control methane emission. In general, because most coalbeds have water associated with them, the system to be studied may be either single-phase (methane gas) or two-phase (methane and water). Because coal mine geometry is complex and the fluids have variable properties as functions of pressure and methane concentration, the differential equations describing the flow of methane and water are not amenable to analytic solution, but must be solved numerically using high-speed computers. This paper presents the development of such a complex mathematical model along with some preliminary applications of the model to methane emission from one- and two-dimensional coalbeds with and without water present."

Jan 1, 1973

By D J. Brake

Most mine ventilation engineers are involved in ventilation planning and design in some capacity. Ventilation modelling software used by a competent experienced ventilation engineer is extremely useful in developing good ventilation designs by allowing assessment of a wide range of potential options. Unfortunately, ventilation modelling undertaken by persons who do not have sufficient experience or knowledge usually results in a façade that covers up a fundamentally unsatisfactory design. Ventilation models are produced for a wide variety of purposes including: fault-finding of a problem area in a mine and options analysis for resolution of such problems; a complete review or optimisation exercise of an entire mine’s ventilation system; or a much longer life-of-mine type of study. Models can be intended as the basis for studies with diverse purposes such as primary shaft or airway sizing, primary fan specification, examining re-entry times after blasting, resolving leakage or recirculation, or investigating the impact of fires or underground climate or cooling requirements. The concepts of ‘materiality’ and ‘fitness for purpose’ are essential to developing or using a ventilation model and serious mistakes have been made in wrongly using a ventilation model for purposes for which it was never intended, often because it is simply the most recent model on the mine site. Mistakes at this level often translate into faulty ventilation strategies and inefficient or ineffective use of scarce capital for ventilation projects. Validating a ventilation model is a time-consuming and expensive process and not every model must (or even should) be fully validated to meet the objectives at that time. This paper discusses the application of quality assurance in ventilation planning with particular respect to the ‘basis of design’ (BOD) as well as the standards for validating a ventilation model. It also provides a recommended way of dealing with non-conformances in measured versus modelled values of critical parameters in the model.CITATION:Brake, D J, 2015. Quality assurance standards for mine ventilation models and ventilation planning, in Proceedings The Australian Mine Ventilation Conference, pp 221–228 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 31, 2015

By C Zhang, I Canbulat, G Fan, D Zhang, C Wang

A clear understanding of the intensity of coal and rock burst is the basis for future research on burst mechanism and control. There has been a wide variety in the description of coal and rock burst damage at different countries using multi-methods, which makes the common understanding even more challenging. Therefore, this paper presents a broad review on the quantifications of intensity of coal and rock burst and seismic risk around the world, considering critical factors including seismic energy, magnitude, peak particle velocity and ejection velocity. It is found that the seismic energy of coal and rock burst can widely range from 0.002 MJ to 60000 MJ, with equivalent Richter magnitude from -1 to 4. The daily seismic energies can be used for seismic risk potential assessment, with energy levels from 0.1 KJ to 10 MJ, which is much lower than the burst sources. The magnitude of the seismic events can be also estimated based on the weight of damaged coal mass and human senses of vibration and sound. For the seismic intensity represented by peak particle velocity (ppv), it keeps constant within fault radius and attenuates with a speed of 1/r4 and 1/r in near and far field respectively, thus it is possible for a small seismic event to induce considerable ppv causing severe damage if the epicentral distance is small enough. There has not been a strong correlation between the ejection velocity and ppv, as seismic energy is only one of the energy sources that contribute to the kinetic energy of burst damage. CITATION:Wang, C, Zhang, C, Canbulat, I, Zhang, D and Fan, G, 2018. Intensity quantification of coal and rock burst risk – a review, in Proceedings The Fourth Australasian Ground Control in Mining Conference (AusRock), pp 223–233 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 30, 2018

By R. L. Grayson, S. S. Peng

"Abstract. Sampling of respirable dust and analyses of samples have been partially completed for a longwall panel. Physical and compositional properties which have been characterized include:l. Respirable mass concentration, 2. Mineral composition,3. Particle size distribution by mineral,4. Particle shape distribution by mineral,5. Particle angularity distribution by mineral, and6. Respirable size distribution.Analytical techniques used in the characterization of samples are described, and results are reported with emphasis placed on relationships between the various characteristics and worker locations. Details of existing mining conditions, equipment arrangements, dust control methods and operating system parameters are presented.INTRODUCTIONThrough the work of many researchers worldwide, the health of coal miners in modern societies is now protected from dangerous exposure to respirable coal mine dust. A vast amount of research culminated in the exposure-response model of Jacobsen, et al. (1971) whi3h has been used to establish the 2mg/m exposure limit in the United States. According to the model, exposure to respirable dust for 35 years at this level or less would prevent the occurrence of a clinically significant case of coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP). The exposure limit, of course, must be adjusted whenever greater than five percent free silica exists in the respirable dust.The Jacobsen model was built around a mass concentration exposure, which showed the highest correlation with incidence and progression of CWP. As Morgan; et al. (1973) noted, howev.er, the quantity of respirable dust inhaled is not the only significant factor. It is noted that although mass of respirable dust correlates highest with the incidence of CWP, it is not a causal factor. Indeed, the insidious processes causing the disease occur on the cell-particle scale, requiring microscopic investigation."

Mar 1, 1989

By G. W. McMahon

Following the Sago Mine accident, the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) asked the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center to study several possible methane explosion scenarios in the Sago coal mine. The study used a 0.3-m (1-ft) resolution map of the mine to produce a 3-dimensional (3 D) model of a portion of the mine, including the sealed area where the explosion occurred. An advanced 3 D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code was used to calculate the explosion pressures within the sealed area, on the mine seals and in nearby regions of the mine. Based on the best available information on methane concentrations and assumptions on homogeneity and on layering and mix composition, three separate initial conditions of methane-air concentrations and location were studied. This paper discusses the CFD modeling technique, the results of the calculations, the challenges of conducting this type of modeling and the advantages and limitations of CFD modeling of accident investigations of mine explosions.

Jul 1, 2010

By N Haque

Base metal ores contain low levels of toxic/hazardous elements such as arsenic, antimony, bismuth, cadmium, lead and mercury. Given the large tonnage of base metal ores mined and processed each year globally, the accumulated mass of minor elements introduced into the biosphere is large and could be expected to have a significant environmental impact. Life cycle analysis (LCA) is a methodology that has been developed to assess the environmental impacts of material supply chains over their entire life cycle. Assessing the toxicity impacts of metallic wastes and incorporating these impacts into LCA methodology is not a simple task given the complexity of the issue. However, research and methodology development is in progress internationally to address this. Despite limitations concerning the lack of a coherent framework for characterising the toxicity impacts of metals, including issues such as bioavailability, a study was carried out to give first estimates of the relative toxicity impacts of various waste streams from metal production processes. The wastes considered were: red mud; sulfide tailings (copper, nickel, lead/zinc); lead/zinc slags; synthetic rutile residue; iron oxide residue; and copper slags and anode slimes. These toxicity estimates can be considered the æworst caseÆ scenario for these wastes, where all the metals present are bioavailable. Combining estimates of the amounts of the various waste streams produced in Australia each year with the toxicity results showed that despite their relatively low human toxicity impact per unit mass compared to some other waste streams, red mud and the various sulphide tailings had the highest annual human toxicity load on the environment, along with copper smelting slag and dust. Data from the pH dependent leaching test reported in the literature were assumed to represent first approximations of metal bioavailability and used to compare the two approaches to estimating the toxicity impacts of red mud.

Jan 1, 2009

By J. J. Jakosky, D. H. Zellers

"IntroductionThis paper is the seventh of a series describing an investigation being conducted by the Bureau of Mines on underground communication. A review of past work and results obtained has been published. The present paper deals with a study of line-radio or wired-wireless methods of communication, herein electrical energy is transmitted by metallic conductors.The use of line-radio over metallic conductors has been practiced for a number of years, and at present is being used on a large scale in long-distance carrier-current telephone and telegraph. The early work of the U. S. Army Signal Corps and the Bureau of Standards in using ordinary radio transmitting and receiving apparatus for communication over metallic conductors was been descried. Later publications describe commercial applications, and an excellent treatise and resume is given by E. Colpitts and C. B. Blackwell.Scope of ReportThis report contains (1) a discussion of the chief factors affecting carrier-current transmission, with particular reference in application to underground communication for mines; (2) a description of typical underground circuits used for power and lighting; and (3) description of apparatus used and results obtained in line-radio experiments in coal mines near Pittsburgh, with circuit diagrams, and conclusions as to power requirements and limitations for mine use."

Apr 1, 1925

By A. Navarra, C. Arrancibia, R. Yañez, C. Acuña, F. Valenzuela

"Discrete event simulation (DES) is a suitable framework to evaluate and optimize the dynamics of sulphide smelters. In particular, iron-nickel-copper-cobalt sulphides undergo continual oxidation within a roasting or smelting operation, followed by batch oxidation within the converting operation, thus producing iron-free Bessemer matte (or blister copper, in the case of copper smelters); this semi-finished product undergoes further processing to produce nickel, copper and cobalt products, and to recover precious metals. The juncture between continuous smelting and batch converting is often an appropriate focus for the earliest phases of DES development, since it is typically a major bottleneck within nickel and copper smelters; later phases may include increasing levels of detail for auxiliary unit operations, as well as plant logistics. Moreover, DES can support matte-slag chemistry, including Gibbs free energy balances to determine the iron speciation within the slag. DES is therefore capable of linking the fundamentals of oxidation reactions to the intricacies of plant dynamics.INTRODUCTION Discrete event simulation (DES) is gaining acceptance within the extractive metallurgy community, as a technique that quantifies the system-wide performance of metallurgical plants under conditions of uncertainty (Wheeler & McGinty, 2015). In particular, over 90% of smelters that process nickel-copper-cobalt sulphides and copper sulphides exhibit similar semi-continuous dynamics (Crundwell et al., 2011b; Schlesinger et al., 2011b), in which the converting aisle produces batches of material that are sent for further processing (Figure 1). Thus the tools and practices that are developed for a specific sulphide smelter are often relevant to numerous other smelters.The juncture between continuous smelting and batch converting has long been a focus for discrete event simulation (Welgama et al., 1996). Nonetheless, the broad acceptance of DES in nonferrous smelters has been hindered by interdisciplinary barriers that divide industrial and metallurgical engineers (Navarra et al., 2016; Noorossana et al., 2012); this divide has been less severe in steel plants (Hollocks, 2006). In recent years, DES has been used in copper smelters to analyze crane-and-ladle motions (Coursol et al., 2009a), reverts production and consumption (Noorossana et al., 2012), and innovative control systems (Herrera et al., 2016); additionally, DES models have accounted for shutdowns and random breakdowns to provide realistic assessments of copper smelter capacities, thus guiding equipment upgrades (Campbell et al., 2013; Coursol et al., 2009a). All of these studies feature a Peirce-Smith converting aisle similar to Figure 1 that, under normal operations, constrain the smelter throughput, and are thus a bottleneck (Campbell et al., 2013; Navarra et al., 2016)."

Jan 1, 2017

By Gerald L. Colborne

The major role of financial institutions in the free world in the development of mineral resources is to provide the necessary capital in the form of loans to underwrite the development of these resources by the industry on a stable and continuous basis. This capital provided by the depositors to the bank must be invested in sound projects where the degree of risk is relatively small, the return on the investment is reasonable and the time to retire the loan is of short duration. Money is, therefore, one of the important ingredients along with technology, manpower and an exploitable resource that will provide a sound economic base in this region of development. Canadian banks are similar to banks of other western nations, although each country has some differences in their banking systems. The basic difference between the American and Canadian systems is that the former employs unit banking while the Canadian utilizes the more mobile branch system, which is prohibited or restricted in the United States and some other countries. Canadian banks are the subject of this paper, so, subsequent material will relate to Canadian banks unless indicated otherwise. It will be realized by everyone that the mineral industry is only one area of the economy in which the banks are interested and to cover the subject matter in the time allowed, the topic is restricted to mineral resource development. In Canada this is a vital sector of our economy and before we outline some of the details of financing and services involved in various aspects of mineral development, a review of the Canadian mineral industry is a necessary part of the sequence of presentation. The writer presents this material as a resource engineer advising a major bank in mineral matters, so the presentation may relate more to the financial problems of the developer

Jan 1, 1972

By H. W. St. Clair

Sampling of heterogeneous mixtures of fused metals or solidified melts is subject to errors not met in sampling finely ground ores or granular materials. These errors arise largely because of the segregation of constituent metals that usually takes place during solidification. It is seldom that a random sample of a lot of metal will represent the composition of the entire lot. The problem becomes especially difficult when it is necessary to make accurate analyses for a segregated impurity present in very small amounts. This paper discusses some of the pertinent experimental observations made in selecting a method for sampling melts of aluminum and zinc containing small amounts of iron and silicon as impurities. Although this experimental study dealt only with sampling this specific combination of metals, many aspects of the study apply generally to any mixture of mol ten metals containing minor constituents that segregate rapidly during freezing of the melt.

Jan 1, 1949

By M Runkel, J Hammerschmidt, A Holmstr÷m, A Charitos, J Gnntner

"Roasting of sulfide concentrates and refractory ores is an important process step in the production of metals and chemicals. Sulfides of iron, zinc, copper and other metals are oxidised with air between 600 and 1000¦C into metal oxides or sulfates and gaseous sulfur dioxide. Roasting of gold concentrates and ores is a typical processing step used to produce a porous calcine suitable for cyanide leaching. During roasting, elements posing problems are removed through: oxidation (carbon, sulfur, arsenic and antimony) or volatilisation (mercury, chlorides and tellurides, as well as arsenic and antimony).This paper focuses on the environmental aspect of roasting using fluidised bed technology. The approach is to show that roasting is an attractive solution for refractory ore pretreatment since, on the one hand, it is an efficient technique yielding high gold recovery rates, while on the other it is able to comply with current stringent international environmental regulations. In that respect, roasting is compared to alternative processes, ie pressure oxidation (POX), bio-oxidation (BIOX) and ultra-fine grinding (UFG). Roaster high gold recovery rates are ensured through roasting-leaching test work, which allows the derivation of respective roasting parameters that are easily achieved in an industrial plant. On the other hand, key elements of the roasting process are analysed, which make it an efficient and sustainable technology, ie the possibility for energy recovery, the removal of off-gas impurities during the different gas cleaning steps (handling of arsenic, mercury emissions and further hazardous dust and gas emissions) and the treatment of the SO2-gas in order to produce sulfuric acid, and finally the treatment of the effluent produced. The processÆs environmental aspects are summarised by listing roasting emission values that comply with international regulations.CITATION:Charitos, A, Runkel, M, Gnntner, J, Holmstr÷m, A and Hammerschmidt, J, 2013. Roasting - a study on environmental aspects, off-gas, effluents and residue treatment, in Proceedings World Gold 2013, pp 509-518 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Sep 26, 2013

By Wayne R. Hopkins

Southern Arizona has one of the world's principal concentrations of copper ore bodies. Twenty miles south of Tucson, close to the Mexican border at Sahuarita in Pima County, is the Twin Buttes mine. In mid-1973, the Anaconda Company and American Metals Climax Incorporated (AMAX) established a 50-50 partnership to operate and expand the Twin Buttes property. Anamax Mining Company was established as the operating company for this joint venture. The production from the Twin Buttes mine is shared between the two partners who market independently. A major expansion of the Twin Buttes operation has included an accelerated stripping programrne for the pit, an expansion of the sulphide concentrator, the construction of an oxide leach plant and a 57 MW diesel generating power station. Part of this major expansion, the large tonnage oxide processing plant was brought on stream in 1975 and is now close to design capacity. The "mine to market gap" has been closed by producing high-purity copper cathodes at the mine site from oxide ore reserves. By using a hydrometallurgical process route, copper production is possible with negligible effects on the environment.

Jan 1, 1976

By Raju S. Sagi

This paper deals primarily with the different types of drilling methods used by the Iron. Ore Company of Canada for sampling the soft and friable hematite-limonite (secondary) iron ore deposits found in the Scheferville area. The problems associated with drilling, sampling, sample handling and sample preparation. for chemical analysis of these ores are discussed. Systematic evaluation of the various drilling methods led to the selection of an integrated drilling system. This system consists of a rotary dual- tube - reverse-circulation drill, with tricone bit, polymer mud and mechanical sample splitter, The historic al development of this drilling system is described in detail, as are the equipment , sample flow and quality control checks carried out to obtain representative samples. This integrated drilling and sampling system has been used satisfactorily on a routine basis for determining the grade and tonnage of ore for the various deposits for the last five years (1972-76) in the Schefferville area.

Jan 1, 1977

By Robert C. Dyni

This report details the investigation of multiple-seam longwall subsidence conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Mines from 1978 to 1989. A field investigation monitored ground surface movements over four upper-seam longwall panels and six lower-seam panels. The characteristics of the subsidence occurring as a result of mining these panels are examined; in particular, the angle of draw, subsidence development, total magnitude and areal extent, and critical width are evaluated and discussed. Comparisons are also made between the characteristics of multiple-seam longwall subsidence and single-seam longwall subsidence that occurred at the same site.

Jan 1, 1991

By M Spagnolo, M Ashley, D, L Reemeyer

PasmincoÆs Century Concentrator in North West Queensland commenced operations in November 1999. The nameplate production capacity of 500 000 tpa of zinc metal production in concentrate was achieved in August 2002. Completion of the production ramp up was successful due to the culmination of a number of initiatives throughout 2001 and 2002. Mine to mill interaction to understand and eliminate head grade related bottlenecks affecting Concentrator production and reduce feed variation. Grinding circuit process development û operating and process control strategies to improve stability and reduce grind size to support zinc recovery. Pumping upgrades to control spillage in ultrafine zinc flotation Low density zinc flotation strategy û to improve silica-sphalerite separation to improve zinc recovery while maintaining acceptable silica in final concentrate. Flotation circuit process development û froth crowders, froth cameras and reagent control strategies to improve primary zinc flotation performance. Review and implementation of longer campaigns between planned shutdowns to improve availability. Team reorganisation û to improve setting and implementation of metallurgical strategies. This paper describes these initiatives and their contribution in achieving the production target. It also notes the ball mill motor failures that delayed the successful achievement of the ramp up, and CenturyÆs response to minimise the production impact. The paper also outlines the capital improvement program that was implemented to improve zinc recovery to design 82.5 per cent recovery once the production rate had been achieved.

Jan 1, 2003

By A. H. Burns

"Regenerative and recuperative burner systems require advanced combustion techniques to minimize NOx emissions. Various methods of pollutant minimization and furnace design considerations are described. Cited examples are a large high temperature furnace and a small Zinc vaporizing furnace. The concept of total carbon footprint is introduced. The application of Biomass combustion as an effective method of cost and green-house gas (GHG) reduction is discussed. Practical considerations of scale, location and process limitations are discussed. Two examples of biomass fired equipment are cited. Ideal sites have large biomass resources available locally. Processed biomass fuels will be an important substitute for fossil fuel. INTRODUCTIONIn 1992, I presented a paper entitled Combustion Strategies In The Modern Industrial Environment (1992). At that time an abundant supply of cheap fossil fuel made many of the measures I talked about difficult to justify for anything but new equipment.Since 1992 we, as a society, have demonstrated an ability to accelerate the pace of industrial and societal change. The term industrial revolution applied to this age of incessant change is completely meaningless, implying a discrete moment in historical time. What our society has built is a system capable of unfettered, continuous and accelerating technological change. With this change comes an increasing demand for energy and materials.This year is the anniversary of the Titanic disaster, a moment in time when technological certainty met the caprice of nature and gave us a brutal reminder of what can happen to us if we underestimate that power (Mowbray, 1912). In the intervening interval we have regained the technological arrogance that was lost in 1912 bringing us back to the problems of climate change and the need for sustainable industrial activities.We use advanced mathematics to describe many complex systems, sometimes with disastrous results. For example there has been a recent attempt to model the global economy as a completely deterministic system. This premise is flawed at its foundation as human nature and emotion are indeterminate constants in the equations, yielding probabilistic solutions at best. As engineers we are all familiar with stiff problems. The solution to such a problem is meaningless and we have all had the misfortune to live through and rue the effects of that miscalculation over the last few years."

Jan 1, 2012