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By W. H. Reck

Increasing use of flotation in modern beneficiation has resulted in a variety of froth handling methods. Froth must be handled mechanically to maintain common floor elevation, because pure gravity flow, stage to stage, makes for multiple level machine installations with higher first cost and less convenient operation. Bucket Elevator--Froth is collected by launder and goes to the feed entry of the elevator, below the floor. The bucket goes to the next treatment stage by gravity flow. The outstanding advantage is high efficiency of conveyance.

Jan 5, 1955

By E W. Kohler

Geophysical wireline logging of blastholes provides useful geological data and has considerable potential to improve overall blasting control and costs. This paper uses case histories to show how logging techniques have highlighted certain problems, and discusses the various in-hole tools available. In particular, the issue of the effects of hole diameter on explosive column height,and the importance of this when deck charging is addressed. The suitability and cost-effectiveness of currently available logging technology to the wide range of blasting applications is discussed.

Jan 1, 1988

By Orville R. Lyons, A. C. Richardson

Operating data is presented for a Bird centrifuge used to dewater coal treated at one preparation plant. The data include: (1 ) percentages of solids in centrifuge feed, cake, and effluent and the plant circulating water for a period of four consecutive operating shifts, and (2) screen-sizing data for a number of centrifuge feed, cake; effluent, and combined cake-effluent samples. An evaluation is included of the relationships between fine solids in the centrifuge feed and the total moisture content of the centrifuge cake.

Jan 3, 1950

By John H. Soule

"Although known since 1902, the Capitan iron deposits have not been mined, mainly because of the low grade of the ore. Only a small amount of exploratory work has been done since the discovery. C. H. Johnson, district engineer of the Bureau of Mines in New Mexico in 1942-45, visited the property; as a result, preliminary sampling of the property was done in 1943.3/ Owing to the results of this preliminary work, an extensive development program by wagon drilling was planned and executed early in 1944.4/ Equipment available at that time was limited in the depths that could be reached; and, as geologic studies indicated the possibility that other limestone beds below the surface might have been replaced by iron minerals, a supplementary development program by churn drilling to reach greater depths was prosecuted in late 1947 and early 1948, with the author as project engineer.The following sections note the location and accessibility of the deposits and mention the physical features, climate, labor and living conditions. Property and ownership are outlined, the history and production of the property stated briefly, and the ore deposits are described. The work done by the Bureau of Mines is explained and supported with maps, sections, and assay logs.From March 1, 1944, to June 1, 1944, 179 wagon-drill holes totaling 3,490 feet and 4 test pits totaling 75 feet were completed, and from November 1947 to February 1948 seven churn-drill holes totaling 2,488 feet were drilled and sampled. Metallurgical tests are summarized and referenced.With respect to this report, special acknowledgment is due to J. H. Hedges, chief, Tuscon, Ariz., Branch, Mining Division, and to W. R. Storms, engineer in-charge of the Silver City, N. Mex., field office. Acknowledgment also is due to J. Bruce Clemmer, chief, Tuscon Branch, Metallurgical Division, for analyses done in the last phase of this project, and to Dr. Vincent Kelley of the Federal Geological Survey for his cooperation during this work.The Capitan iron deposits are in secs. 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15, T. 8 S., R. 14 E., central Lincoln County, N. Mex., as shown on figures 1 and 2. The only known large deposit upon which the Bureau did development work lies around the common corner of secs. 10, 11, 14, and 15, as shown in figures 2 and 3, and just southwest of and in the foothills of the Capitan Mountains. This range of mountains trends east and west. The elevation of the highest peak is 10,205 feet.The deposits are reached by traveling on State Highway 48 from Capitan north for 4 miles, to a point just inside the Lincoln National Forest fence and thence due east over a poor dirt road for 1.2 miles. Just over a small wooden bridge, the left-fork is taken, and the poor road is followed to the deposits, a further distance of 1.1 miles (see fig. 1). This road follows the fence to and through the Davis ranch. All the roads from Capitan to the deposits are dirt roads but are impassable only for short periods during and after heavy rain or snow."

Aug 1, 1949

By Herbert H. Uhlig

Although the mechanical properties of high-carbon manganese-iron alloys, particularly the Hadfield manganese steels, have been established, the literature discloses discrepancies in the reported properties for the low-carbon alloys. Hadfieldla summarized the existing data up to 1927, including the investigations of Guillet, Arnold, Strauss, Burgess and Aston, and reported his own values for alloys containing for the most part from 0.06 to 0.I5 per cent carbon. He noted: From these comparisons it wil! be seen that while there is a broad and general agreement as to the character of the alloys at the different manganese percentages, there are disparities in individual cases, especially as regards the degree of toughness or brittleness displayed by an alloy with certain percentages and with particular types of treatment. These differences are not always readily explainable.lb His data showed that alloys containing 4 to 10 per cent manganese water-quenched from Iooo°C. were brittle and hard with maximum brittleness at about 7 per cent. Slight improvement in ductility was obtained with compositions from 10 to 17 per cent manganese. Alloys containing up to 17 per cent manganese slowly cooled rather than quenched from 87o°C., he found, were slightly improved in ductility with significant improvement in alloys analyzing 4.1 and 4.8 per cent manganese. Recently Walters, Kramer and Loring2 reported mechanical properties for alloys made up from electrolytic manganese and ingot iron and containing from 0.02 to 0.04 per cent carbon. They showed that a tempering treatment at 54o°C. (Iooo°F.) for one hour significantly improved the ductility of compositions ranging from 6.7 to &apos; 20.7 per cent manganese. The differences of these compared with Hadfield&apos;s results they considered to originate in this tempering treatment plus the fact that Hadfield&apos;s alloys contained higher carbon and phosphorus (0.06 to 0.I5 per cent C; 0.06 to 0.07 per cent P compared with 0.02 to 0.04 per cent C, <o.ooI per cent P). In this paper it is shown that of the low-carbon alloys (0.02 to 0.03 per cent) containing from 3.3 to 21.5 per cent manganese moderately or rapidly quenched from IOOO°C. some are brittle or ductile, depending on presence or absence of hydrogen. Hydrogen is readily absorbed at high temperatures, and much of it is retained when the alloys are cooled to room temperature. The presence of hydrogen in the range of composition from 10 to 18 per cent manganese is a major factor in determining relative ductility. At 22 per cent manganese, and also at compositions below 10 per cent manganese, factors other than or in addition to hydrogen play a role. These are discussed. Also data are presented to show that hydrogen absorbed by the high-carbon alloys of Hadfield composition is without effect on their mechanical properties.

Jan 1, 1944

By Herbert H. Uhlig

Although the mechanical properties of high-carbon manganese-iron alloys, particularly the Hadfield manganese steels, have been established, the literature discloses discrepancies in the reported properties for the low-carbon alloys. Hadfieldla summarized the existing data up to 1927, including the investigations of Guillet, Arnold, Strauss, Burgess and Aston, and reported his own values for alloys containing for the most part from 0.06 to 0.I5 per cent carbon. He noted: From these comparisons it wil! be seen that while there is a broad and general agreement as to the character of the alloys at the different manganese percentages, there are disparities in individual cases, especially as regards the degree of toughness or brittleness displayed by an alloy with certain percentages and with particular types of treatment. These differences are not always readily explainable.lb His data showed that alloys containing 4 to 10 per cent manganese water-quenched from Iooo°C. were brittle and hard with maximum brittleness at about 7 per cent. Slight improvement in ductility was obtained with compositions from 10 to 17 per cent manganese. Alloys containing up to 17 per cent manganese slowly cooled rather than quenched from 87o°C., he found, were slightly improved in ductility with significant improvement in alloys analyzing 4.1 and 4.8 per cent manganese. Recently Walters, Kramer and Loring2 reported mechanical properties for alloys made up from electrolytic manganese and ingot iron and containing from 0.02 to 0.04 per cent carbon. They showed that a tempering treatment at 54o°C. (Iooo°F.) for one hour significantly improved the ductility of compositions ranging from 6.7 to &apos; 20.7 per cent manganese. The differences of these compared with Hadfield&apos;s results they considered to originate in this tempering treatment plus the fact that Hadfield&apos;s alloys contained higher carbon and phosphorus (0.06 to 0.I5 per cent C; 0.06 to 0.07 per cent P compared with 0.02 to 0.04 per cent C, <o.ooI per cent P). In this paper it is shown that of the low-carbon alloys (0.02 to 0.03 per cent) containing from 3.3 to 21.5 per cent manganese moderately or rapidly quenched from IOOO°C. some are brittle or ductile, depending on presence or absence of hydrogen. Hydrogen is readily absorbed at high temperatures, and much of it is retained when the alloys are cooled to room temperature. The presence of hydrogen in the range of composition from 10 to 18 per cent manganese is a major factor in determining relative ductility. At 22 per cent manganese, and also at compositions below 10 per cent manganese, factors other than or in addition to hydrogen play a role. These are discussed. Also data are presented to show that hydrogen absorbed by the high-carbon alloys of Hadfield composition is without effect on their mechanical properties.

Jan 1, 1944

By Y. Okahara, I. Iwasaki

Chlorination behaviors of pure iron and manganese oxides were investigated by combining a thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) technique with batch-boat roasting followed by leaching. Ferrous and manganous oxides could be chlorinated readily, but, in the absence of a reductant, the higher oxides of both iron and manganese were dificult to chlorinate. Thermogravimetric analysis curves were drawn to illustrate the complexities of the reactions, and the possible mechanisms were discussed. Then three manganif-erous materials from the Cuyuna Range of Minnesota were treated by a process involving the selective chlorination of manganese followed by leaching. The results were interpreted in the light of the chlorination mechanisms observed on the pure iron and manganese oxides. One of the unsolved problems challenging Minnesota&apos;s mining industry is the development of an economic process to utilize the manganiferous iron ores of the Cuyuna Range. Although these ores constitute one of the major domestic reserves of manganese (estimated at 432 million tons&apos;), their grade is too low for them to be mined solely for manganese. The nearly exclusive dependence of the U.S. steelmaking industry on foreign manganese ores has stimulated research over the years in treating the low-grade Cuyuna ores. As a result, a number of processes have been proposed.&apos;-&apos; Among these processes is chlorination. Chlorination is the high-temperature conversion of metallic oxides to chlorides by either chlorine or hydrogen chloride gas, or by solid chlorides of sodium, calcium, or magnesium. The metallic chlorides are then recovered by either vaporization or leaching. Although chlorination is an old art, it has become popular in recent years for the recovery of such new metals as titanium, zirconium, and niobium; for the removal of impurities like copper, lead, and zinc from pyrite cinder for ironmaking raw materials;&apos; and for the segregation roasting of coppera and nickel&apos; ores. The chlorination processes proposed for manganifer-ous iron ores have been relatively few (hydrogen chloride chloridization-leaching, hydrogen chloride and calcium chloride chloridization-volatilization,&apos; and chlo-rination-selective condensation6), due presumably to the economics and to the corrosion problems involved. However, the successful application of chlorination processes to other ores will undoubtedly contribute to technological advancements in the chlorination of man-

Jan 1, 1971

By I. Fatt, D. N. Saraf

A method is described for measuring two- and three-phase relative permeabilities in sandstones or sand packs using a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) technique to determine fluid saturations. Two- and three-phase relative permeabilities have been determined on Boise sandstone using the NMR technique of saturation measurement. Three-phase relative permeability to water was found to depend only on the water saturation, whereas three-phase permeability to oil depended on both the water and oil saturations. Relative permeability to gas in three-phase flow was found to depend only on the total liquid saturation. INTRODUCTION Three-phase relative permeabilities are extremely useful in calculating field performance for reservoirs being produced by simultaneous water and gas drives. Three-phase relative permeability data are also needed for analyzing solution gas-drive reservoirs which are partially depleted and are being produced by water drive. Some thermal recovery processes involve three-phase flow which require three-phase relative permeability data for predicting reservoir behavior. Unfortunately, three-phase relative permeability measurements have rarely been made. Also, because of the scarcity of three-phase data, it has not been possible to date to relate other measured rock characteristics to the relative permeabilities with a great certainty. Leverett and Lewis,l Reid2 and Snell3 have reported three-phase relative permeability data on unconsolidated sands. Leverett and Lewis used ring electrodes spaced along the length of the sand sample to measure the resistivity of the sample which was assumed to be monotonically related to brine saturation. Gas saturation was determined from pressure-volume measurements. Oil saturation was obtained by material balance on the cell containing the sand sample. This method is involved and time consuming. Another difficulty arises from the fact that the resistivity of the sand is a function not only of saturation of brine but also of the distribution and saturation history of the brine in the pore spaces. Reid2 used a gamma ray absorption technique for measuring liquid saturation. This method has the disadvantage that total liquid saturation rather than oil or brine saturation is all that can be measured and still another method is required to determine the saturations of individual components. snel13 used a neutron bombardment method which also required a separate determination of the individual component saturations. Caudle et al.4 measured three-phase relative permeability on consolidated sandstones using vacuum distillation for determining fluid saturations. Distillation after each reading makes this technique very lengthy and time consuming. Corey et a1. 5 and Naar and Wygal 6 measured three-phase relative permeability on sandstones by the capillary-pressure method. Semipermeable diaphragm assemblies were used at each end of the core specimen to keep the water phase in the core. Gravimetric methods were used to determine fluid saturations. Sarem7 recently reported an unsteady-state method for measuring three-phase relative permeability on sandstones. This method is an extension of Welge&apos;s method8 for measuring two-phase relative permeability. Although Sarem&apos;s method is simple and comparatively fast, the assumptions involved may oversimplify the problem. Sarem&apos;s assumption, that in all rocks relative permeability to each fluid will depend only on the saturation of that fluid, seems to be rather unrealistic. Neglecting capillary effects at the end of the core is also a weak assumption. Donaldson and dean9 measured three-phase relative permeability using a method similar to Sarem&apos;s.

By P. M. Soupios

There is an increasing requirement for geophysical surveys carried out during geotechnical investigations to provide direct information about rock quality or other geotechnical parameters. With the paucity of information to correlate geophysical results with actual rock properties, this is still difficult to achieve and additional research effort needs to be performed to address this issue. Nowadays, several researchers have been described detailed studies which designed specifically to investigate this matter. Generally, geophysical techniques which are used to estimate seismic velocities in the subsurface focus on the low strain levels that are not large enough to induce significant nonlinear, nonelastic stress-strain behavior (Luna and Jadi, 2000), which is normally evaluated when addressing liquefaction potential of soils in the shallow subsurface. Soil parameters relevant to seismic ground response (Rechtien, 1996) are density, relative density and void ratio, permeability, shear modulus, water saturation, soil fabric and stress history. Detailed characterization of elastic properties near a major construction site (e.g. a bridge) is useful for near field dynamic analysis of soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects. The coupled effect of the bridge foundation (piles, piers or abutments) and the soil immediately surrounding these substructure elements is essential for dynamic SSI analysis of these critical bridge structures. This paper presents a geophysical investigation performed along the under construction highway of Egnatia Odos, approximately 13 km west from the town of Xanthi in N. Greece. Twelve geotechnical boreholes, drilled at the maximum depth of 75 m, approximately located 20 m from the Nestos River. The objective of the survey was to obtain the high-resolution compressional and shear wave velocities of the shallow subsurface for computation of elastic engineering properties of the unconsolidated material interposed between the investigated boreholes. Joint interpretation of borehole logs and velocity images obtained by P- and S-wave traveltime inversions outlined shallow geological anomalies.

Jan 1, 2005

By D. W. Brunton

The erection of large metallurgical establishments for the treatment of gold, silver, copper, and lead-ores, at railroad arid topographical centers, where fuel and fluxes, together with proper oremixtures, can be cheaply and constantly obtained at all seasons of the year, has led to the very general introduction of a system of ore-handling known as "public sampling." By this system the ore, instead of being shipped direct to the mill or smelter, is sent to a public sampler, where it is crushed and sampled. Guaranteed samples are sent to the different metallurgical establishments, and the ore is then sold to the highest bidder. Though differing in many respects from the English system of "ticketing," the underlying principle is nearly the same, while the greater rapidity with which a lot of ore can be disposed of renders

Jan 1, 1885

By E. D. Gardner

The tide of increasing demand for metals turned during early 1949, with resultant lower prices. The production of the principal metals was less than in 1948. The problem of high unit costs, however, was held over from 1948. With the lower prices for metals, greater efforts are being made to reduce operating costs. The labor supply was adequate during the latter half of the year in most districts. The force has been reduced at most mines; some mines were idle during part of the year because of strikes, and others ceased operations on their own account. In the main, labor efficiency increased during the year in underground metal mines. Efforts are being made generally to improve labor relations. Green men hired in the time of the scarcity of skilled miners are becoming better trained. The supervisory personnel of most mines is cost conscious, and the planning of operations has been improved. Overhead costs are being scrutinized. The trend toward mechanization underground continued strong. Mining technology rapidly is becoming a problem of handling materials. Surface miners, underground miners and miners of metals, nonmetallics, and coal can learn much Gardner from each other. A mine, however, may become overmechanized. The capital charges against new equipment may exceed the saving in labor costs where sufficient daily tonnage is not handled.

Jan 1, 1950

By L. C. Morganroth

Discussion of the paper of L. C. MORGANROTH, presented at the New York meeting, February, 1916, and printed in Bulletin No. 110, February, 1916, pp. 475 to 481. DAVID B. REGER, Morgantown, W. Va.-I notice in the third paragraph of the first page of the paper, that in mentioning the clays of the Pottsville series, the author says: "The bed of clay found in the latter formation is unique in that flint clay is practically restricted to it. (A variety of flint clay is occasionally found in these upper deposits but this is in such small amounts as to be negligible."). If the author wishes to confine himself to the fire clays of Pennsylvania, as the title seems to indicate, I have nothing to say, but if he wishes to include a discussion on fire clays of the adjoining States which the. subsequent paragraphs of his paper seem to indicate, then I wish to call attention to the fact that there are large and extensive deposits of fire clay in the Allegheny series, immediately overlying the Pottsville in the northern counties of West Virginia. These fire clays have been studied carefully, and described in several reports of the West Virginia Geological Survey, first in the report on Ohio, Brooke, and Hancock Counties, in the northern part of the State; described later ,in the report on Monongalia, Marion, and Taylor Counties, and in the report on Preston County, which followed. In these latter counties (Monongalia, Marion, Taylor, and Preston) there are some beds of fine fire clay, varying in thickness from 6 to 10 or 12 ft., with a content of only 2 or 3 per cent. of fluxing ingredients, and these are of the typical Savage Mountain appearance and also have the typical Savage Mountain fracture. They have been prospected, but not mined a great deal. Several of them have been tested in blast furnaces and furnaces for other purposes, in glass-manufacturing plants, also for firebrick, arid have been found to be very good. They are simply awaiting development, and I merely want to call attention to the fact that there are plenty of them in the Allegheny series still above the Pottsville in West Virginia. There are two or three valuable seams which I have seen in person and have had analyzed in our laboratory.

Jan 5, 1916

By Heiskanen K., Koivistoinen P.

A common belief is that autogenous grinding suits itself only to certain oretypes. It is shown that properly designed autogenous grinding can be used even with very difficult ores with energy consumptions which are equal or lower than obtained with rod-ball mill grinding. The basic feature in the design is the large port grate developed by Outokumpu. The scale-up of the mills can be done on the basis of the base mill concept. It enables to compare different mill sizes and types. Simple scale-up equations are presented based on actual mill data and experimental work.

Jan 1, 1992

By Joan Weinberg

Real gross national product (GNP) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% in the third quarter, down from a revised 3.0% in the second quarter, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (table 1). The slowdown in the rate of growth was attributed to the summer drought, a larger trade deficit, and a decline in Federal spending for defense. Exports slowed from the second quarter, as the dollar, compared with other industrial country currencies, edged up. Imports of both consumer goods and capital goods rose sharply, with consumers buying more foreign cars, computers, and electrical machinery. Although net exports of goods and services deteriorated slightly from the second quarter, the U.S. trade position continues to be much improved from 1987 and first quarter, 1988. Business spending for new plant and equipment rose at a 4.6% pace, well below that recorded earlier in the year. The 3.5% increase in consumer expenditure was accounted for mainly by nondurable goods and services; expenditure for durable goods--those products lasting more than 3 years--rose only 0.4%. Inflation, as measured by the fixed-weighted GNP price index, rose at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter. Prices rose slightly less than they had in the second quarter, when inflation reached a 6-year high. In September, 1988, the President signed a U.S.-Canada free trade agreement (FTA) which will eliminate all tariffs and most nontariff barriers between the two countries by 1999, thereby creating the world&apos;s largest open market. In 1987, U.S.-Canadian bilateral trade totaled $161 billion. The expansion of trade is expected to generate 5% higher growth for Canada and up to 1 % higher growth for the United States by the end of the century. The higher growth for the United States translates into an estimated 750,000 jobs, and $2.4 billion in exports. Canadian parliamentary approval of the agreement is still required before the treaty can take effect. The debate in Parliament is continuing, and the issue is not expected to be resolved until after the November 21 election.

Jan 1, 1988

By J E. Everett, M L. James

When iron ore is crushed and split into lump and fines components, there are systematic differences between the lump and fines grades. Generally the lump product is richer in iron and lower in the other minerals, compared to the fines product. The grade differences between lump and fines, together with the lump percentage, are referred to as the ælump algorithmÆ. Mine estimates of grade, based on exploration or blasthole drilling, relate to head grade. The ælump algorithmÆ predicts lump and fines product grades from the head grade. This knowledge is important when developing mine plans. Different ore types can be expected to have systematically different lump algorithms. Previously, lump algorithms for specific ore types have been estimated by running the crusher with a single ore type over a sample period. This method is costly, interferes with production, and yields results of limited statistical power. It has been found that weighted-least-squares (WLS) multiple regression can be used to ascribe lump algorithms to different ore types, provided sample periods have sufficiently varied ore type mixes. This study discusses the method and its application to the analysis of Mining Area C crusher production records to estimate the separate lump algorithms, which could be applied to the different ore types. The analysis has enabled the set up of lump algorithms in the production system, to improve the grade control of lump and fines product. Some other relevant applications of the WLS multiple regression approach are also considered.

Jan 1, 2005

By Larry R. Fletcher, John W. Kopp

The safety record for explosives in U. S. mining is excellent considering that over 4 billion pounds of explosives are now being used each year. However, blasting accidents remain one of the most serious concerns based on the number of injuries, the injury severity rate and the disaster potential. The Bureau of Mines has been analyzing blasting accident data obtained from the Mine Health and Safety Administration (MSHA) to determine the most frequent causes of mine blasting accidents and to examine trends in blasting accidents. This accident analysis is an update of two previous blasting accident studies conducted by the Bureau and published in 1983 and 1987.

Jan 1, 1991

By Frank R. Milliken

Before the rather sudden economic downturn in recent months, shortages of materials were painfully felt throughout the US. The current recession has provided a temporary relief here and there-but energy fuels and a number of staples such as sugar are still in short supply. This is an unsolved and fundamental problem that will haunt us again as the economy turns up. There is an awareness that the nation faces a widening supply gap in many of its most basic materials-from asbestos to tungsten-as evidenced by recent studies and government reports, and by the Secretary of the Interior&apos;s annual warnings about the mounting seriousness of the problem.

Jan 3, 1975

Mineral policy is now generally regarded as a function reserved to government. Government is reponsible for the economic health and progress of nations, and must therefore interest itself in minerals as a basic national resource. Government should therefore identify objectives which it sees as suitable and necessary for the mineral industry so that the industry can play its part in achieving national goals. It should provide the legislative framework and policy guidelines to enable these objectives to be achieved. The essential objective of a national mineral policy should be rational development of the nation&apos;s minerals resources. To achieve this, it need not be too formal; broad guidelines are enough. But it must be dynamic, to keep pace with the changing circumstances of the mineral industry in the world scene and the changing requirements of government. It should be flexible, recognising that there is no such thing as a "typical" mineral deposit; above all it should represent the outcome of a continuing dialogue between government and industry. Both government policy and corporate planning need to be formulated on the practical understanding of the potential economic value of the mineral sector and what it can contribute to the nation&apos;s prosperity. There needs to be a common understanding of the wide range of the costs of risks that may arise through the exploration and development stages and of the uncertainties affecting ventures at the production stage. There needs to be a common understanding that the size and importance of the mineral sector is determined in the long run by the level of investment in exploration. The development of a continuing understanding between government and industry should lead to the formulation of ground rules which ensure the continuance of a strong industry able to adapt to the changing world scene and make its contribution to national growth and wellbeing.

Jan 1, 1986

By Joseph E. Pogue

In 1920, 531 million barrels of crude petroleum were coi~sumed in the United States. As imposing as this figure is, the fact that the domestic consumption of crude petroleum has increased at an average rate of 10 per cent. a year for the past decade is more striking. Will this rate of increase in demand continue? If so, the year 1930 will call for 1260 million barrels of petroleum—a staggering volume. On the other hand, may we expect the demand for petroleum to grow as rapidly as it did when the automotive industry was having its most phenomenal expansion? If not, to what extent will the growth of oil requirements decrease? When and to what degree will the petroleum industry become affected by the economic law of diminishing returns? Obviously, this matter requires careful analysis, especially as both national and industrial planning must be predicated upon present estimates of the requirements of the future. The purpose of this paper, accordingly, is to project, as closely as present limitations of knowledge permit, the course of the demand for petroleum in the United States over the next ten years. At first, the problem of estimating the future of a demand as complex as that for petroleum might appear insoluble. Fortunately, hon~ever, therc are several scientific methods of approaching the problem, centering around a study of rates of industrial growth, which lend considerable hope that the requirements of the immediate future in this field may be approximated with sufficient closeness to have practical value as a basis of action. Growth oF Petroleum Demand The demand for crude petroleum is the resultant of the demands for the products made jointly from this substance—gasoline, kerosene, gas and fuel oil, and lubricating oils. The demands for these have grown at

Jan 1, 1923

By Joseph E. Pogue

In 1920, 531 million barrels of crude petroleum were coi~sumed in the United States. As imposing as this figure is, the fact that the domestic consumption of crude petroleum has increased at an average rate of 10 per cent. a year for the past decade is more striking. Will this rate of increase in demand continue? If so, the year 1930 will call for 1260 million barrels of petroleum—a staggering volume. On the other hand, may we expect the demand for petroleum to grow as rapidly as it did when the automotive industry was having its most phenomenal expansion? If not, to what extent will the growth of oil requirements decrease? When and to what degree will the petroleum industry become affected by the economic law of diminishing returns? Obviously, this matter requires careful analysis, especially as both national and industrial planning must be predicated upon present estimates of the requirements of the future. The purpose of this paper, accordingly, is to project, as closely as present limitations of knowledge permit, the course of the demand for petroleum in the United States over the next ten years. At first, the problem of estimating the future of a demand as complex as that for petroleum might appear insoluble. Fortunately, hon~ever, therc are several scientific methods of approaching the problem, centering around a study of rates of industrial growth, which lend considerable hope that the requirements of the immediate future in this field may be approximated with sufficient closeness to have practical value as a basis of action. Growth oF Petroleum Demand The demand for crude petroleum is the resultant of the demands for the products made jointly from this substance—gasoline, kerosene, gas and fuel oil, and lubricating oils. The demands for these have grown at

Jan 1, 1923