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By T. W. Camm

"We hear all the time about the value of hard work and perseverance, and the part they play in the professional life of successful people. What we do not hear so much about are the many professionals who work hard and persevere, yet never seem to quite reach the level of success they aim for. Some current authors are beginning to give more attention to the part luck/black swans/outliers play in success. This is not a new phenomenon, Machiavelli had a lot to say about it back in the Renaissance. So how can knowledge of this dynamic help in a modern organization? INTRODUCTION Work hard and you will succeed. Go to the right school, major in the right degree, study hard, and get a good job. Look at the lives of successful people, and do what they do. Be all that you can be. You can be anything you want to be. Really? Those who are successful always get attention, people want to know what they did to reach such a high position. Invariably, at least part of their narrative will include hard work, wise insight, taking advantage of opportunities, etc. If they are of a more generous nature, they might also allow that building the right friendships and collaborations also played a role. All of this may be true; what we do not often hear are the stories of those who did all of these very same things, but did not find success. An example from pop culture: The Voice. I have watched this show occasionally the past couple of years. One of the things I like about the show is that the initial screening of contestants is based solely on their singing voice (hence the name of the show), and not on their appearance. At the time of this writing (early November), the judges have just finished elimination rounds for their final teams to go on to the live shows. Here is my point—in almost every case the judges agonized over choosing who would go forward and who would be eliminated. And the reason is because all of them are really talented singers. It is impressive how gifted they are. At the end of each season, only one is declared a winner, out of that gifted pool of singers. When you hear their stories, they are all talented, hard-working individuals sacrificing for their art. And as far as I know, none of them has ever become a star. Hard work, dedication, sacrifice, talent—sometimes it is enough, sometimes not. I will be looking at the part uncertainty/luck/black swans play in our lives, but I want to make it clear at the beginning that I am not saying everything that happens to us is out of our hands or beyond our control. Taleb makes this same point (2007, p. 52): “This problem is chronic: if you tell people that the key to success is not always skills, they think that you are telling them that it is never skills, always luck.”"

Jan 1, 2017

By Krishna Parameswaran

In this paper, we attempt to answer an often asked question, how can metal mining be compatible with the principles of sustainable development. Starting with the classic Brundtland Commission definition of sustainable development as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs," we make the case that mining is or should be sustainable, using examples of sustainable practices at ASARCO LLC, an integrated U.S primary copper producer. These examples cover the entire mining cycle starting with exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining, closure and post-closure and post-mining land use. It is hoped that the presentation will challenge the mining industry to even greater innovation as future mineral development projects are planned.

Jan 1, 2015

By William M. Knuth

The objectives of this study were the evaluation of the technical and economical feasibility of utilizing color and color infrared aerial photography to satisfy some informational needs for pre-mine planning, mine progress monitoring, and reclamation monitoring. Seven aerial data collection missions were conducted within a two year period over strip mine sites in Pennsylvania. Scales of 1:6,000; 1:12,000; 1:24,000; and 1:48,000 were flown on the first aerial mission. The 1:12,000 was chosen as the optimal scale for the remaining six flights. An extensive literature and legislative review and discussions with strip mine operators identified the informational parameters that could possibly be obtained from aerial photography. Interpretability accuracies were evaluated for parameters in the broad categories of land use, soils, water, vegetation, and geology. Seasonal interpretation characteristics were noted for infrared photography. Man hours for photointerpretation and costs of aerial data collection were monitored closely and incorporated into a cost benefit analysis. Those parameters that could be mapped, identified, or measured with accuracies =75 percent were incorporated into a photointerpretation training manual. An additional analysis was performed to determine the applicability of the interpretation methodologies and results developed for Eastern sites to Western surface coal mining sites. In addition, a separate aerial photographic interpretation manual was produced during this contract. It is intended to be utilized by eastern and midwestern surface mine operators and regulatory personnel.

Jan 1, 1978

By C. J. Slaughter, S. P. Harteis, L. L. Chasko, D. W. Alexander

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), Office of Mine Safety and Health Research (OMSHR), with the assistance of cooperating underground mining operations and state agencies, has conducted research exploring devices and technologies that could be used to assist miners navigating through smoke and dust resulting from a fire or explosion. Recent events in mines confirm that smoke and dust can enter and contaminate mine escapeways, creating an atmosphere with severely reduced visibility. This reduced visibility results in substantially increased escape times, possible disorientation or confusion, and increased stress levels, and may prevent evacuation altogether. Tools or devices that assist miners in navigating through smoke-filled areas void of lifelines could make the difference in successful escape from the mine. This paper presents the results of OMSHR research to identify and evaluate tools and devices that could provide meaningful information to evacuating miners in areas with limited visibility and without the benefit of a lifeline.

Jan 1, 2011

By Paul Zinner

Efforts to win an enriched manganiferous product from the Missouri Valley deposits of South Dakota have included an application of most known ore-dressing devices and have been largely unsuccessful. At least two methods showed some promise of success and were the subjects of detailed Investigation by the Bureau of Mines during the period from July 1945 to August 1947. A series of mining and beneficiation tests were undertaken to determine conditions under which the most feasible concentration methods could be employed and to define the limits of such applications in terms of the character of the final beneficiated product. In the absence of a significant current market for any conceivable product of beneficiation, the extent to which applied methods might be considered successful was measured in terms of ratios of recoveries to grade, regardless of the adaptability of such beneficiated products to further metallurgical or direct usage. The results of all investigations show that production of a shale-free, concretionary, manganese-bearing product by any known method requires great sacrifices in manganese recovery. Products of beneficiation, with specifications permitting some inclusion of shale, can probably be most effectively produced by methods employing specialized jigging equipment as the principal functional unit of a process.

Jan 1, 1949

By E. W. Dean, H. H. Hill

Gasoline has become of such commercial and military importance that it is now practically indispensable. This product is of special interest because, in addition to realizing its value, the Nation is learn- ing that the raw materials from which gasoline is obtained are not unlimited. ACTIVITIES OF THE BUREAU OF MINES IN PROMOTING EFFICIENCY IN THE PRODUCTION AND UTILIZATION OF GASOLINE. The Bureau of Mines has directly and indirectly worked for the conservation and efficient utilization of this important product. Some of the bureau's activities have been along lines widely different from those reported in this bulletin. The work of the bureau toward the increase in efficiency of processes for the production and refining of crude oil is too well known to need mention here. Another line of activity in which the bureau has engaged is the collection and publi- cation of statistics on refinery operations. Finally, as immediate preparation for the present bulletin, two surveys of the gasoline mar- keting situation have been made. The primary object of this bul- letin is to make available to the public information obtained in con- nection with these surveys. PURPOSE OF THE GASOLINE SURVEYS OF 1917 AND 1919. Shortly after the United States declared war on Germany the bureau collected gasoline samples in the retail market throughout various parts of the country. Information regarding the sources of these gasolines and the details of marketing them was obtained, and they were subjected to analytical tests which furnished conclusive informa- tion regarding their properties. The information obtained through this survey proved of inestimable value both to the bureau and the United States Fuel Administration, particularly in drawing up speci- fications and in ascertaining the best means of obtaining supplies of particular types of gasoline that were needed. A similar and more extensive survey was made in the months of April and May, 1919, in order to obtain data needed for the revision of the Federal motor gasoline specification. The specification adopted during the war had been the subject of numerous complaints, and it seemed desirable to determine whether or not these objections were valid before attempting revision.

Jan 1, 1920

By A. M. Strachan

The application of submerged electric arc furnace smelting techniques to tin concentrates at the Capper Pass tin smelter in England is discussed. Some experimental data from earlier small scale 50 KVA electric smelting testwork on various low and medium grade tin concentrates is presented. Design considerations for the construction of a 3 MVA electric furnace to treat tin concentrates from the East Kemptville mine in Canada are considered, together with necessary precautions peculiar to the construction of a high grade smelter in close proximity to an existing low grade, complex non-ferrous metal smelting operation<. Slag composition modifications to optimise operational smelting conditions for various concentrates treated are discussed, together with refractory selection. The effect of concentrate impurity levels on the permissible degree of recycle to produce a satisfactory metal product is highlighted.

Jan 1, 1990

By A. C. Fieldner, W. A. Selvig

Information concerning the fusibility of coal ash has become of considerable value to the consumer of coal, mainly in connection with the troublesome formation of clinker resulting from the melting of the ash constituents of the burning coal. The growing interest in such data has led the Bureau of Mines to make a general survey of the "fusing" or "softening" temperatures of the ash from coals of the United States. It is hoped that this information when used together with the large number of coal analyses published 1 by the bureau will assist the consumer of coal in comparing different coals, and in selecting the coal best adapted for his purpose.

Jan 1, 1922

By G Tranell, E Pastor-Vallés, A Vallejo-Olivares, J B. Pettersen

Metals are essential for the sustainability transition and decarbonisation of society. Yet, it will be paramount to produce them sustainably and minimise the affiliated resource and energy use and the associated emissions. In the circular economy, the metallurgical industry should recycle existing material stocks, and improve its utilisation of wastes, residues and side streams. This increases the complexity of processes, as they become both (often multi-fraction) waste treatment as well as material production processes and brings complexity to the assessment of environmental benefits. Assessing the environmental impact of technological developments frequently is supported by life cycle assessment (LCA). While the method is well documented, its implementation involves several methodological choices that deserve reasoning and analysis, such as how to define the product when former wastes are turned into new products, the selection of impact methodology when converting emissions to environmental indicators, the definition of system boundaries and co-product allocation and the interpretation of sensitivity and uncertainty in final outcomes. In this exploratory study, we investigate how the variation of LCA set-up affects the environmental burden of the system. We consider a metallurgical process where a mix of hard-to-recycle aluminium-containing streams is used to produce aluminium cast alloys in a rotary furnace. Remelting with salt-fluxes allows recovering metals from partly oxidised/contaminated streams, such as dross, bottom ash and industrial shavings, but at the expense of generating significant amounts of salt-slag/salt-cake hazardous waste. The study considers different system alternatives such as landfilling the salt-slag residues versus valourising them into salts, aluminium concentrates, ammonium sulfate and non-metallic-compounds to be used by the metallurgical, construction or chemical industries. Practical recommendations are outlined to facilitate the implementation of LCA in assessing the potential benefits of the circular economy in the metallurgical sector.

Aug 21, 2024

By L. A. Haas

S02 reduction with CO was studied in an integral flow reactor at a nominal flow of 0.5 liter per minute. Reactant gas contained 3 percent SO2, 6 percent CO, and the balance He. SO2 conversion was determined for three different types of catalysts. The first consisted of 16 commercial catalysts used for various chemical syntheses. Only the commercial catalysts which contained transition metals in alumina removed more than 30 percent 80a at temperatures below 510° C. Two other types of catalysts were prepared in the laboratory either by pelletizing equal amounts of powdered alumina and transition metal oxides or by impregnating commercial alumina tablets with transition metal ions. Regardless of preparation techniques, Cr and Fe in alumina were the two best catalysts. The observed results suggest that an intermediate (SCO) is formed by the interaction of surface metal sulfides and carbonyls. Alumina then catalyzes the interaction of SCO with S02 to form the end products (sulfur and carbon dioxide). Over 80 percent S02 was removed at 460° C with 2 grams alumina impregnated with 2.5 percent iron.

Jan 1, 1972

"How Wall Street Darling Molycorp Undermined the U.S. Economy, Degraded our National Security and Distorted the Global Economic Balance and How These Falsehoods Continue to be Promoted Even Today INTRODUCTION & SUMMARY In 2007 the Molycorp Mountain Pass rare earth mine was resurrected from its desert-grave in California by its then-owner Chevron Mining. Responding to elevated rare earth prices Chevron began processing on-site rare earth concentrates left over from past mining operations that were terminated in 1998i. Chinese demand had sparked what was being described as a commodities super-cycleii. Commodity prices were on the move. Wall Street smelled opportunity. In 2008 Goldman Sachs, Pegasus Partners, Resource Capital Funds, Traxys North America LLC and Carint Group LLC acquired the mining assets from Chevron. In an environment of ever-declining ethical standards and regulatory consequences the private capital group and their investment bankers would bring Molycorp to market. Molycorp, with its high powered investment banking team of Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morganiii, easily dominated the contest. Molycorp promoted itself, largely based on its past operating history and proven reserves, as the best company to challenge China’s monopoly control over the production of rare earths: a group of elements critical to most advanced technologies and U.S. defense systemsiv. Most of Wall Street’s hottest investment sectors were dependent on these materials: alternative energy, green technologies, computing, personal communications, advanced electronics and defense systems. By late 2010 there were dozens of prospective rare earth start-up ‘mining companies’ seeking capital. Eventually the number of prospective rare earth mining companies seeking capital exceeded 400, despite the reality that supply requirements of this market were disproportionally small when compared to other natural resource sectorsv. In the world of finance ‘smart money’ picks the winners. Consequently just twovi projects attracted nearly all of the capital (Molycorp and Lynas). Wall street picked Molycorpvii. This paper will primarily focus on Molycorp. By early 2010 the words “Molycorp” and “Rare Earths” electrified many people in the mining industry, most non-Chinese manufacturing technology companies, U.S. & allied defense contractors, technocrats in the U.S. national security community and eager investors across most of the world’s stock markets. It was the hottest story of the yearviii. The financial, technology and defense press coverage verged on euphoric: heaping fuel on fuel until the highly combustible Molycorp-pyre cast a long shadow over all of its rivalsix. When the IPO match was lit the spectacular flaming pyre sucked all of the oxygen out of the rare earth spacex. Molycorp was ranked the most lucrative IPO of 2010, resulting in record breaking profits to its private investors and massive returns for its early stock holding investors."

Jan 1, 2017

By Joseph H. White, DR. JAMES G. CUMMING

This report presents the results of an investigation of hookworm infection in the deep gold mines of the Mother Lode, California. In this investigation 1,440 miners of the Mother Lode have been examined for hookworm infection; 444 miners were found to be infected; and 91 miners have taken the treatment and have gotten rid of the infection. ·Within a short time after this preliminary examination, an industrial strike started, which gradually scattered the miners and made it difficult to institute the treatment of many of those who had been found infected. ·With the completion, however, of the State survey all these will eventually be identified and treated. In 1906 Dr. F. F. Sprague, of Jackson, Cal., and formerly of the Philippine Islands, recognized the prevalence of hookworm infection in the gold mines of California. He treated many cases of the infection and brought the prevalence of the disease to the attention of his colleagues. Following closely this pioneer work of Dr. Sprague was that of Dr. E. E. Endicott, health officer of Amador County. In 1911 Dr. Endicott a related his experience in a paper before the American Medical Association. In 1909, Dr. Herbert Gunn, under the auspices of the California State Board of Health, made an investigation to determine the prevalence of the disease among miners. b He reported on the blood and stool examinations of groups of men from three large mines in Amador County. The high eosmophilia verified by stool examinations in many of the cases, and the demonstration of larvae in soil from the workings led Dr. Gunn to the following conclusions: 1. Hookworm disease is endemic in certain mines of California. 2. From 50 to 80 per cent of those working in these mines are infected. 3. The infection undoubtedly is present in practically all the gold mines of California and in those of Nevada just over the border. vYhen it was definitely determined by the California State Board of Health to make an investigation, in cooperation with the Industrial Accident Commission of the State of California and the Federal Bureau of Mines, as to the prevalence of hookworm infection among the miners of California, the following procedure was planned: (1) To encourage the superintendents of the various mines to cooperate in the campaign; (2) to diagnose fecal specimens from the miners and determine the percentage of infected miners; (3) to reach an agreement with the superintendents that all infected men must be treated; (4) to make reexaminations of all treated men; (5) to issue "hookworm certificates"; and (6) to eventually reexamine all California miners. A visit to several of the mines on the Mother Lode made it evident that the mine operators would cooperate most cordially in this campaign; in fact, several superintendents had already considered the advisability of such an undertaking.

Jan 1, 1917

Abbey, Robert Graham, District Mgr., The W. W. Sly Mfg. Co., 50 Church St., New York, N. Y. &apos;21 Abbott, A. N Ave. Morelos 84, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico &apos;23 Abbott, Argyle Campbell, Geol 42 Everett St., Arlington, Mass. &apos;29 Abbott, Clarence E., V.P., Charge of Raw Materials, Tenn. Coal, Iron & R. R. Co., 1242 Brown-Marx Bldg., Birmingham, Ala. &apos;04 Abbott, Louis Benjamin, Chief Engr., Consolidation Coal Co., Watson Bldg., Fairmont, W. Va. &apos;15 Abeel, George H., Jr., Cons. Min. Engr 1281/2 S. Canon Dr., Beverly Hills, Cal. &apos;18 Abel, Raymond L., Asst. Prof., Dept. of Pet. Refin., Univ. of Pittsburgh. .Pittsburgh, Pa. &apos;28 Abel, Walter D., Cons. Engr 650 S. Grand Ave., Los Angeles, Cal. &apos;82 Abele, Louis T., Min. & Met. Engr., Supt., Texas Hill Mine Coulterville, Cal. &apos;31 Abell, Leo M. Millicent, S. Australia &apos;31 Abernathy, George Elmer, Prof. of Geol. & Min., Kansas State Teachers College, Pittsburg, Kan. &apos;20 Aborn, Robert H., Research Lab., U. S. Steel Corp. Lincoln Highway, Kearny, N. J. &apos;19 Abozeid, Mahmood, Dept. of Mines & Quarries Cairo, Egypt &apos;26

Jan 1, 1932

By Frank B. McKune

This is something new in my life. A lot of you men here today I do not know, and some I do know. So if you have any remarks to make, I wish you would give your name and the name of your company. This is the first Acid Meeting which has been held under the auspices of the National Open-Hearth Steel Conference, and I hope it is a success. Whether it is a success or not depends entirely upon the support we get. If it does get good support, I have the idea it will be continued as a regular feature of the National Open-Hearth Steel Conference. We all think we have pretty good practices. But we can all learn and I hope that you, gentlemen, who take issue with the things someone else has said will stand up and give your opinions. Otherwise, the meeting will fall rather flat, and we won&apos;t get a great deal out of it; and there will not be enough interest shown by the National Committee to continue to place the meeting on the regular yearly program.

Jan 1, 1940

By G Zhang, I Glacken

Multiple indicator kriging (MIK) has been used in the minerals industry for some decades. As one of the non-linear estimation methodologies, MIK has advantages related to resolving multiple or mixed populations, high variability data and strongly skewed distributions. Applying the MIK methodology requires a lot more effort when compared to other non-linear methodologies, for example localised uniform conditioning. This is due not only to the variogram modelling for multiple indicators, but the validation is also very important because the panel model is fundamental for follow-up work, including the generation of recoverable resources at the local or SMU scale. Apart from this, only a few reported case studies of MIK have documented post-processing of the estimated modelled distribution, representing the probability distribution at point scale at un-sampled locations. The MIK post processing should include the change of support from the point scale to the panel scale, and then the extraction of quantile values from the panel conditional cumulative distribution function (CCDF) for localisation of grades into the SMUs within each panel, based on a ranking estimate marking the SMUs from high to low. In this paper, we present a case study on a gold deposit with the MIK method with full-post processing implemented for recoverable resources. The MIK point estimate was carried out with an indirect lognormal change of support from point to panel scale, and localisation was done with a custom script. The localised uniform conditioning (LUC) method was also applied for comparison purposes. The comparison shows that MIK has advantages compared to LUC when comes to capturing the high-grades, especially when mixed or varying anisotropy is present within the mineralisation.

May 24, 2023

By D. Harrington

United States newspapers of 25 or 30 Years ago ran headlines every few weeks telling of some mine disaster. Each disaster was a first-page attraction for a day or so then was forgotten until the next sensational event, frequently another mine disaster, a few weeks later. Interspersed with the large mine disasters were the so-called ?snipping? mine accidents that caused the death of one or two mine workers. The summation of mine fatalities of all types usually exceeded 3,000 a year, and nonfatal accidents to workers in mines of the country approximated 250,000 annually. From 1906 to 1910, inclusive, there were 84 major explosion disasters (about 17 per year) in. United States coal mines. The resulting fatalities totaled 2,388 for the 5-Year period. These frightful catastrophes helped the number of fatalities in coal mines of the country to reach the enormous total of 13,288 for the 5 years, or an average of 2,658 per year.

Jan 1, 1940

By R. E. Chaney

This report summarizes the research on the Strategic and Critical Materials Program tasks conducted at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) between May 1984 and April 1985. The work is divided into two areas: 1. Production Technologies - Tasks directed at developing advanced extraction technologies ? Biologically-Assisted Minerals Processing ? Metal/Gas Reactions and Thermal Plasmas ? Dehydration of Aluminum Chloride Hexahydrate (completed). 2. Conservation/Substitution Technologies - Tasks directed toward establishing the technical processing base which will permit the use of advanced materials ? Joining of Rapidly Solidified Alloys (RSA) ? Joining of Silicon Nitride-Based Ceramics ? Nondestructive Evaluation of Ceramic and RSA Joints and Materials ? Substitute Catalytic Materials for Platinum.

Jan 1, 1985

By Fernanda Santos da Luz

Nas últimas décadas, houve um aumento da aplicação de fibras naturais lignocelulósicas (FNLs) como reforços de compósitos poliméricos em diversos setores industriais, principalmente no segmento automotivo. Esse crescente interesse em FNLs se deve não somente aos benefícios ambientais, mas também às vantagens técnicas, econômicas e sociais. Dentre as FNLs, destacam-se as fibras de coco e as fibras da folha do abacaxizeiro (PALF) que são produtos residuais do cultivo de suas respectivas frutas e, por isso, possuem baixo custo e são abundantemente disponíveis. As características físicas dessas fibras se diferem bastante, sendo o PALF caracterizado por suas fibras longas e diâmetro equivalente relativamente baixo. O presente trabalho avaliou o desempenho das fibras de coco e PALF em testes de pullout com o objetivo de caracterizar o comprimento crítico e a adesão interfacial dessas fibras na matriz de epóxi. Os resultados mostraram um comprimento crítico 65% maior para a fibra de coco em relação ao PALF, o que indica maior adesão interfacial do PALF com a matriz epóxi e pode ser atribuída a superfície naturalmente mais rugosa do PALF.

Oct 30, 2017

By Courtenay de Kalb

THE Exposed Treasure gold-mine has, for the past four years, been one of the largest producing mines of Southern California, its annual output having constituted 1 per cent of the total gold and silver production of the entire State. At the present moment the property is idle, owing to the large quantity of water encountered oil the lower levels, which will require the installation of a powerful pumping-plant before operations can be recommenced. Moreover, a prompt change in the character of the ore has occurred at water-level, which makes imperative an extensive campaign of development in the region of the unoxidized ores before a plant adapted to their treatment can be definitely decided upon. The character of the changes encountered in these deeper ores makes the geology of this deposit a matter of importance, not only for the immediate district, but for the desert region of Southern California in general, where many mines exist having in the oxidized belt conditions that, in many respects, resemble those in the Exposed Treasure mine. The deposit is situated in an apparently isolated butte about 2.5 miles south from the town of Mojave, on the Mojave desert; The butte, though apparently isolated, is in fact geologically part of an extinct volcano, known as Soledad butte, which rises out of the plain 1,5 miles SW. of the mine, to an altitude of 4,650 ft. above sea-level. Other buttes also rise from the desert plain toward the south and east, and again to the westward, all being closely related geologically to Soledad butte,-the whole constituting a single system as to origin and time. Since the end of the period of active volcanism in this region, there has been extensive denudation, the ancient plateau having been dissected during an epoch of apparently exces-

Jan 1, 1907

By A. Moergeli, Philip Sander, John Reilly

"SUMMARY While the basic elements of risk management, including probability, consequences, risk registers, mitigation measures, etc., are now well understood, the process to include correlation, dependencies and linkage of risks and risk scenarios is less well defined and not well understood. To perform accurate and complete risk analysis and risk management, it is necessary to include correlation, dependencies and linkage between risk events, as well as risks that may occur multiple times. In this way, owners and contractors can more accurately determine risk-based costs, risk impacts and risk mitigation strategies. This paper will outline methods to deal with correlation, dependencies and linkage and will consider risks that may occur multiple times. Practical result comparisons – with or without these elements – will be presented. INTRODUCTION We believe the reader is familiar with basic concepts of risk, risk management and mitigation and the use of probabilistic cost-risk processes versus deterministic ones (Reilly et al. 2015; Sander et al. 2015). The probabilistic approach, compared to the simpler and more common deterministic approach (unit prices times unit costs plus a contingency), offers more useful information with respect to the range of probable cost as well as cost “drivers” and better quantifies the effects of risks, opportunities and variability – which improves understanding, leading to a better potential for profit (or loss) for contractors and added value for owners. In this context, a valid and sufficient quantification of correlation, dependencies and linkage of risk events, plus the impact of risks that may occur multiple times, is essential. Components of Cost Estimates – Base Cost, Risks and Other Uncertainties The components of cost that need to be correctly addressed in an estimate include (Moergeli et al. 2015): •,Base costs – the costs that will result if “all goes according to plan” (Reilly 2004) •,Risk costs – the resulting costs of threat and opportunity events, if they should occur •,Escalation costs – costs resulting from normally expected inflation with variability •,Other uncertain costs – costs that result from other events, normally external to the project team’s control, which may include unanticipated events, politically related changes and “black swan” events (Talib 2007)"

Jan 1, 2016