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By Arthur Wade

During the year 1938, there was some drilling in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, as follows: Queens1and.—At Hutton Creek, lat. (approx.) 25° 45' S.; long (approx.) 149°, drilling was done by Drillers limited (subsidiary Oil Search) to a depth of 4688 ft., to the Lower Permian(?). There were small gas showings. The hole mas abandoned. At Mt. Bassett, lat (approx.) 26" 20' S.; long. (approx.) 149", Roma Blocks Oil Co. No Liability drilled to a depth of 4033 ft. The hole bottomed in granite. There were small showings of' oil and gas above bedrock in what may be Permian but is not yet determined. The company intends to run a formation tester. New South Wales.—At Kulnura, lat. (approx.) 33" S., long (approx.) 151°, the Kamilaroi Oil Company Ltd. (subsidiary of Oil Search Ltd.) drilled to a depth of 6293 ft. The Permian, probably Upper Marine Series, was reached. Drilling is to continue. Victoria.—At Romawi, lat. (approx) 37" 50' S., long. (approx.) 147" 45', a dry hole 3246 ft. deep bottomed in the Jurassic and was abandoned. It was drilled by the Governments of the Commonwealth and the State of Victoria. At Lakes Entrance, 1st. (approx.) 37" 50' S.; long. (approx) 748", a small showing of' oil (a few pints a day) was obtained from a well drilled 1275 It., to the Upper Oligocene-Glaucnnitc series, by the Austral Oil Drilling Syndicate, No Liability. Future Drilling Preparations is are being made by companies fur further test drilling in 1939, and the Governments of the Common wealth and the State of Victoria are continuing test holes for information only in the Gippsland district of Victoria. In Papua and New Guinea, no test drilling was done in 1938, but several companies are carrying on geological investigation and it is expected that, some test holes will be drilled during 1939.

Jan 1, 1939

By Arthur Wade

During the year 1938, there was some drilling in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, as follows: Queens1and.—At Hutton Creek, lat. (approx.) 25° 45' S.; long (approx.) 149°, drilling was done by Drillers limited (subsidiary Oil Search) to a depth of 4688 ft., to the Lower Permian(?). There were small gas showings. The hole mas abandoned. At Mt. Bassett, lat (approx.) 26" 20' S.; long. (approx.) 149", Roma Blocks Oil Co. No Liability drilled to a depth of 4033 ft. The hole bottomed in granite. There were small showings of' oil and gas above bedrock in what may be Permian but is not yet determined. The company intends to run a formation tester. New South Wales.—At Kulnura, lat. (approx.) 33" S., long (approx.) 151°, the Kamilaroi Oil Company Ltd. (subsidiary of Oil Search Ltd.) drilled to a depth of 6293 ft. The Permian, probably Upper Marine Series, was reached. Drilling is to continue. Victoria.—At Romawi, lat. (approx) 37" 50' S., long. (approx.) 147" 45', a dry hole 3246 ft. deep bottomed in the Jurassic and was abandoned. It was drilled by the Governments of the Commonwealth and the State of Victoria. At Lakes Entrance, 1st. (approx.) 37" 50' S.; long. (approx) 748", a small showing of' oil (a few pints a day) was obtained from a well drilled 1275 It., to the Upper Oligocene-Glaucnnitc series, by the Austral Oil Drilling Syndicate, No Liability. Future Drilling Preparations is are being made by companies fur further test drilling in 1939, and the Governments of the Common wealth and the State of Victoria are continuing test holes for information only in the Gippsland district of Victoria. In Papua and New Guinea, no test drilling was done in 1938, but several companies are carrying on geological investigation and it is expected that, some test holes will be drilled during 1939.

Jan 1, 1939

By Wallace W. Wilson

The Cook Ranch Field produces from a very permeable lens of Cook Sand of lower Permian or upper Pennsylvanian age, occurring at an average depth of 1.300 ft. The field was discovered in 1926, and has been operated with low pressure gas injection since July, 1927, one of the first such projects in Texas. Cumulative recovery to Dec. 31. 1950, was 14,701,131 bbl of crude oil, an average of 1,013 bbl per acre-ft of oil rection. and 72.5 per cent of the oil originally in place. Analysis of the reservoir performance indicates that grav-ity drainage has been an important factor in the producing mechanism. The high permeability and uniformity of the reservoir were extremely Favorable tor this type of operation. INTRODUCTION The Cook Ranch Field is the largest of a number of relatively small, shallow producing areas near .Albany, in Shackelford County, Texas. This field is one of the first to be operated by gas injection in Texas, and probably is the most successful low pressure gas injection project ever attempted. The field is owned entirely by Koeser and Pendleton, Inc., and Continental Oil Co., and has been operated by Roeser and Pendleton, Inc., since it was discovered. This study has been made possible through the cooperation of Roeser and Pendleton, Inc.. in making availahle a remarkably complete set of records covering all phases of their operations. The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of the history of the operations through Dec. 31, 1950, and to analyze some of the factors which appear to be responsible for the success of the project. Information concerning the physical plant and the early gas injection history has been presented in an earlier paper.' RESERVOIR CHARACTERISTICS production in the Cook Ranch Field is from a large lens of Cook Sand. of lower Permian or upper Pennsylvanian age, occurring at an average depth of 1.300 ft. The average dip of the sand body, as shown in Fig. 1. is only about 50 ft per mile to the northwest. The reservoir has an area of 930 acres and contains 15,512 acre-ft of Sand, consisting of about 14.512 acre-ft of produc-tive oil zone. and an estimated 1.000 acre-ft of primary gas-cap. The iso-pachous map (Fig. 2) was prepared from drillers' logs. Recent coring in the field has proven these logs to be quite accurate. The productive limits of the field are defined by shale on all sides but the southwest where a small zone of edgewater was encountered. This water does not appear to have encroached into the reservoir, and water production has been small. A smaller producing area to the south of the Cook Ranch Field also produces from the Cook Sand. but is separated from the reservoir under consideration by a band of shale. The sand consists of well sorted, coarse grained. rounded and subangu-lar quartz fragments. very poorly cemented. The analysis of 46 chip-core samples from two recently completed test wells indicates a range of porosity values between 12.5 and 28.2 per cent. wit11 an arithmetic average of 24.0 per cent. Air permeability values range between 50 and 2,300 md, with an arithmetic average of 1.200 md. The reservoir where cored is a Solid sand body. with no discernible major shale breaks or impermeable streaks. Vertical permeability appears to be of the same magnitude as the horizontal permeability. A core of the Cook Sand was cut ill the smaller field to the south, using lubricating oil as drilling fluid. The connate water content of the sand in this core was found to average about ten per cent, and the porosity and permeability were comparable with the values reported above. No analysis was made of subsurface or recombined hydrocarbon samples,

Jan 1, 1952

This paper focuses on the significant impact that geological information has in relation to the valuation, both equity market and accounting records, of mining companies. There are many different measures adopted by investors and analysts in valuing mining companies. In particular, focus is primarily on calculation of profit as it is the authors primary expertise. The importance of geological information to the calculation of profit (and to many other measures of a mining company performance) is not always understood by the geologist. The aim of this paper is to raise the awareness of geologists (particularly those who are competent persons under the JORC code) of the impact that reserve statements û and changes to û have on profits. This is the first time that this subject has been presented directly to geologists. Similar versions of this paper have been presented at other forums where other important users (directors, auditors, accountants, analysts, investors) or preparers of financial statements have been made aware of the importance of the geological information. In essence, all mining companies prepare annual financial statements, which are adopted by directors and audited. The major items that require judgement generally revolve around two areas û commodity price outlook and the accuracy of reserves and resources. Reserves and resources are important, and that there is undoubtedly a lack of understanding about the assumptions and accuracy of reserves and resources by accountants, directors and auditors, and a general lack of understanding by geologists as to how the information that they prepare is used. Across the globe the majority of mining companies are listed on stock exchanges (with the main exception being nationally controlled mining companies û eg Codelco). In a very simplistic manner, I have divided all mining companies into three types: exploration plays û these companies are still in the finding or proving modeÆ and typically the stock market and investors rely on geological information and remaining cash in determining their assessment of the company; single mine companies û the major items that investors and the stock market look for are reserves, inferred resources, commodity price outlook and discounted cashflow calculations; and multiple mine companies û the investment community and stock market are looking at reserves, inferred resources (generally to a lesser extent at this stage), commodity price outlook, discounted cashflow calculations and profit and loss accounts. Regardless of the type of company, the equity markets, including analysts, try to determine appropriate valuations for mining companies. In doing this the major two areas that require judgemental consideration are the commodity price outlook and the level of reserves and resources. Generally speaking, most mining companies have a strong understanding of their cost structures û in particular their cash costs as distinct from their accounting costs of production û and therefore this area generally gets less consideration than the other two matters mentioned above.

Jan 1, 2003

By Rowan A' Murry Karstel

One way to ensure dragline productivity is by Increasing the size of the dragline bucket. In August 1994, Optimum Colliery in conjunction with Van Reenen Steel, Northwest Applied Technology, SSAB of Sweden and Barlows Equipment launched the new lightweight dragline buckets. Optimum built the first prototype bucket that was used for the deslgn for future buckets. After knowledge had been gained from measuring the input force of the bucket Northwest Technologies designed the new bucket with finite element analysis. Together with the knowledge of quenched and tempered steel from SSAB of Sweden and Barlow Equipment, the new Wrightech bucket was born.

Jan 1, 1998

THE power requirements of the Mount Lyell Mining and Railway Company at Queenstown, Tasmania, have, since the inception of smelting operations in June) 1896, been derived continuously from the extensive forests in the watershed of the Queen River, adjacent to the works, the fuewoodbeing of good quality, mainly composed of myrtle or beech (Fagus Ounninghami), eucalypts, and manuka (Leptospermum ericoides). The country is very rugged and mountainous, indented by numerous ravines and gullies, and intersected by, many creeks, which are subject to periodical floods, under the influence of a heavy and persistent rainfall, which averages about 110 in per annum. The areas so far exploited aggregate a total of about42 square miles, and this denuded country gives promise of ultimately becoming very valuable pastoral ground for cattle-raising. The tonnage of wood yielded per acre varies from 40 to 100 tons on stack measurement of 80 cubic feet per ton, 60 tons per acre being considered a good average yield. The gross amount...

Jan 1, 1910

This Association is made up of Alabama members of the following technical societies: The American Society of Civil Engineers, American Institute of Mining Engineers, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, American Institute of Electrical. Engineers, American Chemical Society and the American Institute of Architects. The association organized last winter for the purpose of maintaining an organization among the technical men of the State of Alabama, to stimulate the development of the natural resources of the State, to foster public interest in all things beneficial to the State, to advance the interest of the technical profession in the State and to encourage social intercourse among its members. On June 30, 1917, an excursion was made to the power house of the Alabama Power Co. at Lock 12 on the Coosa River. This is the first meeting held outside of Birmingham and is also the first meeting to which ladies were invited. About 85 members and guests attended and the excursion was voted a great success by all present.

Jan 8, 1917

By Karl J. C. Harries

This paper looks briefly at some of the agreements and types of royalties that may be met during exploration activities, but does not go into details relating to them. Agreements can either make or break a deal or relationship. A well drafted, comprehensive and fair agreement can create good relations and trust among the parties and will go a long way towards making a deal work. In the best of all worlds the agreement will be put away and not need to be referred to after it has been signed (but it will be there if needed to sort out potential problems). On the other hand, a poorly drafted agreement or one that is inappropriate to the circumstances or unfair to one of the parties can break a deal and end up with the parties facing each other in that expensive, unproductive and time-consuming occupation ? a lawsuit. Accordingly, it is advisable to involve professional advisers with any agreement. The straightforward one may involve no more that a read through whereas the more complex agreement will require considerable involvement. There is, however, one rule for every explorationist to remember: a professional adviser is only an adviser. His responsibility is to make sure that you have the necessary information to make a reasoned decision but the decision is yours, not the adviser?s. It is your deal, you are going to have to live with it, and it is inappropriate for an adviser to introduce new concepts or amend negotiated ones without your specific instructions. Mineral exploration agreements, although basically option, acquisition and joint participation agreements, come in all the shapes and forms, appropriate to give effect to the endless variety of deals negotiated by the ever-active minds of explorationists. You will note the reference to "joint participation agreements" rather than "joint venture agreements". The latter term was purposely avoided because, with the current activity of explorationists from common law jurisdictions in civil law jurisdictions, it has become necessary for the explorationist to become familiar with corporations and shareholders agreements. As most of you are no doubt aware, under the civil law system a joint venture is normally not recognized as a legal entity and, therefore, joint participation in projects is usually by way of corporations.

May 1, 2003

By Syd S. Peng, C. Y. Chen

Introduction The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act was passed in 1977 to put an end to the uneven environmental standards and enforcement established by various coal mining states in the US. One year after passage, the Secretary of Interior was directed to promulgate permanent program regulations implementing Title V provisions of the Act. These regulations were to form the basis for state regulatory programs under the Act and to allow states to assume primary regulatory responsibility. To implement the underground mining provision of the Act, the Secretary is directed in section 516(a) of the Act to promulgate rules. But they must take into consideration the differences between surface and underground coal mining. The regulations developed by the Secretary in 1979, with respect to subsidence control, included: • a subsidence control plan as part of the permitting process; • substantive provisions establishing performance standards for subsidence control; and • provisions providing for the prohibition of mining under perennial streams, impoundments larger than 24.6 dam3 (20 acre ft), and certain public facilities and urban areas. Industry challenged the Secretary's regulations implementing the subsidence control provisions. The litigation was consolidated with all other challenges to the permanent program regulations. (Permanent Surface Mining Regulation Litigation, Civil Action No. 79-1144; D. D.C., May 16, 1980.) In two opinions dealing with the multitude of issues raised by both industry and environmental groups, the US District Court of the District of Columbia ruled against industry. It upheld the promulgated subsidence control provisions. The US Court of Appeals stayed the appeals pending the agency's review and revision of its regulations. The regulatory reform was conducted in accordance with the order from the Secretary of Interior and the President in 1981. As a result, the subsidence control regulation was revised, reproposed, and finalized in June 1983 (Federal Register). This regulation, along with others, was again challenged by environmental groups and industry. On Oct. 1, 1984, the court, after finding the Secretary's reading of the Act reasonable, upheld the 1983 subsidence regulation except for one section. On Feb. 21, 1985, in accordance with the court's ruling, the Office of Surface Mining (OSM) suspended a portion of 30 CFR 817.121 (c)(2) concerning the damage correction requirement for structures or facilities and reproposed it on July 8, 1985 (Federal Register). In conjunction with a request for public comments, OSM now also seeks comments on the omission from the 1983 rule of the requirement in the 1979 rule regarding a presubsidence survey and monitoring of damage to structures. Technical issues related to subsidence regulations The subsidence regulations of June 1, 1983, consist mainly of two parts: a subsidence control plan as part of the permitting process; and substantive provisions establishing performance standards. The latter also includes provisions for prohibiting mining under certain areas. Under subsidence control plan section 784.20, minimum require-

Jan 2, 1986

By Floyd R. Hertweck

This Bureau of Mines publication contains analyses and related source data for 349 natural gas samples from 26 States and 2 foreign countries. The 3 samples from foreign countries and 339 of the U.S. samples were collected during calendar year 1983. The remaining seven samples were collected earlier, but releases granting permission to publish were not received until 1983. All samples were obtained and analyzed as part of Bureau of Mines investigations of the occurrences of helium in natural gases of countries with free market economies. This survey has been conducted since 1917. The analyses published herein were made by the mass spectrometer and chromatograph. The results of these investigations are published annually to make the information available to the petroleum industry and the general public. Twenty-seven publications have presented the results of 13,332 gas analyses made prior to 1983. The first three bulletins (1-3)3 contain analyses and related source data on 5,218 gas samples collected from 1917 through 1960; these bulletins have been supplemented annually by information circulars (4-17, 19-24, 26-27) containing 8,104 analyses of sam¬ples collected since 1960.

Jan 1, 1984

By Penny C. Stewart

Narrow vein underground stope design engineers in Australia have expressed significant interest in the requirements and methodology for developing site-specific stability charts. This is largely due to a concern that existing stope stability charts inadequately take into account factors influencing narrow vein stope stability, such as the effect of backfill abutments and the effect of in stope pillars. This paper presents conclusions from a comprehensive statistical examination of case history requirements for a site specific stability chart and critiques literature arguments for site-specific charts. A new statistical analysis technique and a large comprehensive stability database enabled the authors to quantify case history requirements and any site-specific effects the model exhibits. The analyses indicated that a reliable stable-failure boundary requires at least 150 case histories, of which a minimum of 10 percent should be unstable stope surfaces. Marginal site-specific effects were observed for the operating conditions captured within the database. The authors conclude that the apparent site-specific effects noted in previous literature are attributable to operating conditions inadequately represented in the database. Such operating conditions could induce erroneous stability predictions at any site, and are therefore not truly site-specific. Following from these conclusions, a strategy for taking into account operating conditions particularly relevant to narrow vein mining has been proposed. In particular, the development of a chart that accounts for the effect of backfill abutments on stope stability. Backfill abutment effects are particularly relevant to mechanised narrow vein mining methods such as modified Avoca. Collaboration from at least five sites is required to obtain access to relevant data and underground drives for geotechnical mapping. Preliminary estimations indicate that approximately three months fieldwork is required to meet case history requirements. CMS data in conjunction with 3-dimensional design software will be used to calculate equivalent linear overbreak/slough (ELOS). In contrast to stable, failure, major failure and caving categorical variables, ELOS is an objective and continuous stability variable and is therefore, more conducive to mathematical modelling.

Oct 1, 2001

By C. Michael Dickinson

In support of the DNA Deep Basing Program, SRI International has been performing scale model experiments on protective structures since 1973. The SRI program includes field and laboratory tests of mini- structure models with surrounding natural or simulated geology. This paper contains a synopsis of some of the results of this research.

Jan 1, 1984

By Remmerswaal, U. Boin, M. B. G. Castro

"To design sustainable products that can be recycled with high resource efficiency, low environmental impact and economic feasibility, the choice of materials and materials combinations, made in the design stage, is fundamental. The products we design, manufacture and use now will be the resources of the future. Designers are able to select materials for a product according to the many functional requirements they must fulfil. But they have a limited knowledge of the recycling processes and its requirements regarding quality of the secondary material streams. Resource Engineers have to manage the processing of these streams, that are becoming more complex with the increasing variety of materials and decreasing size of components. After mechanical separation of the materials streams resulting from shredding of EOL (endof- life) products, there is always a degree of contamination, from two possible causes:Incomplete liberation: the bonds between different materials combined in a component are not completely destroyed by shredding, resulting in some particles containing two or more materials attached;Separation efficiency: the mechanical separation processes are not able to separate perfectly the many material particles; there are always a number of foreign particles in the recovered streams.Sometimes, those contaminants cannot be removed by the industrial metallurgic recycling processes, and a more serious problem occurs when the contamination levels compromise the recycling of the material stream by lowering its quality (i.e. the properties of the recycled material will be lower due to the contamination). As a consequence, the material must be diluted in virgin raw material and/or used in a less demanding application (downgrading), causing resource depletion and increased energy use, waste production and recycling costs. In order to make the best choice of materials combinations for a product, a systematic approach is necessary, that can close the gap between the knowledge areas of Product Design and Recycling Technology."

Jan 1, 2003

By Z. G. Lin

In Xian, China, compaction by means of soil (or lime-soil) piles is one of the effective methods widely used for densifying loess and eliminating its collapsibility. However, as a result of groundwater table rising, it is no longer applicable in many areas. This paper is the summary of the first-time use in Xian of sand-gravel compaction piles aimed at densifying the miscellaneous fill (already partially under water) and saturated loess at a certain project site. In-situ tests, conducted before and after the treatment and including several kinds of penetration tests backed up and confirmed by a set of plate loading tests, yielded very satisfactory results, strongly testifying to the viability of the method.

Jan 1, 2010

By C Harwood

Underground coal mines in the United States are in the process of completing installations for tracking and communication systems, mandated by Congress after a number of recent coal mine disasters. Yet, evaluation, modelling and testing of such systems has lagged due to legislated changes, abruptly introduced into the coal mining industry. System installation in a wide array of mine types, configurations, layouts and characteristics has provided a wealth of information regarding their potential in underground environments. Data collected from numerous installations for a variety of systems can be used to further define true capability and accuracy of communication and tracking packages. This paper describes a uniform means of evaluating the performance of a communication and tracking system. Several performance measures are proposed and described. These measures can also be predicted using an interactive software program. This program predicts the signal propagation, given the input mine characteristics and layout, with numerical and visual feedback. New or alternative system installations can also be more accurately designed to potentially minimise initial system cost and time required for trial and error installs. The focus of this research is to develop tools and protocols that can evaluate and measure the effectiveness of installed underground communication and tracking systems.

Nov 22, 2011

By Paul J. Beck

The impact of mining development on the environment can be minimized through comp careful construction and accurate monitoring. Key to meeting these objectives is t information at all stages of design, development, operation and decommissioning. This paper will describe cost-effective means of gathering and managing reliable fiel groundwater flow and surface water regime within and surrounding the mine site, as localized contaminant plumes associated with mine operations, and monitoring ground quality. Recent research has led to the development of inexpensive, easy to install syst sampling/monitoring from different zones within a single borehole. Advances in elect developed small diameter probes and pumps for measuring water levels and taking wat continuous monitoring stations in remote areas can be colldeacttaeldo gaguetrosm aatnidc adlolwyn luosaidnegd from a central facility using telemetry systems powered by direct, battery or solar radio frequency, landline or cellular telephones, and satellite. Two case studies will illustrate the use of datalolgagregres sacnadl et eblaesmient rwyi dien mao nitoring sc and the use of multilevel samplers for managing a contaminant plume.

May 1, 2004

By J. N. Van der Merwe

The principal goal of the research described in the paper was to determine, by measurement of pillar scaling on pillars that have not failed, whether the pillar life prediction method developed by van der Merwe (2003) was valid as it stood or whether adjustments were necessary to the rates indirectly derived from observation of failed pillars. To this end, measurements were taken on over 350 pillars at 13sites on 6 mines. The project was done as a collaborative effort between the University of Pretoria, the Nancy School of Mines and CSIR Miningtek. During the course of the investigation, it was found that the majority of pillars display maximum scaling at mid height, that there was no clear preferential direction of pillar scaling, and that pillar corners do not scale significantly more than the mid pillar areas. The most important conclusion was that the scaling rates found by measurement agreed with the inferred rates found in the previous work. The previously developed procedure for the prediction of pillar life spans consequently requires no adjustment, although the error span is in the region of 20%. It is recommended to do further research into the effect of sealing of panels and, possible chemical changes taking place in the pillars as they age on the scaling rate.

Jan 1, 2004

Resolution Copper Mining LLC (RCML) is currently in a Pre-feasibility study evaluating a large and deep copper and molybdenum deposit in the historic mining district east of Superior, Arizona. Work scheduled for the next several years includes dewatering the existing shut-down mine (the Magma Mine) and sinking an exploratory shaft to 2,130 meters (7,000 feet) below the surface. To dewater the Magma Mine and sink the exploratory shaft, RCML must extract and manage about 2 billion gallons of accumulated mine water inventory, as well as about 300 million gallons per year of new inflow. In order to conserve a valuable water resource in a desert environment, RCML worked with the New Magma Irrigation and Drainage District (NMIDD) to provide treated mine water to blend with and supplement the NMIDD?s water supply to approximately 2,000 hectares (5,000 acres) of farmland located east of Phoenix. A 44 km (27-mile) pipeline was needed to convey the treated water. It was essential that a treatment system be used which could reliably meet irrigation water quality goals, produce a non-scaling effluent to maintain pipeline flow capacity, and generate a dense sludge minimizing disposal cost and volume. This paper describes the resulting mine water treatment and recovery system (MWTS) and how the system has performed against objectives.

Jan 1, 2011

By W. G. McBride

THE present demand for men with engineering training exceeds anything in the history of the profession. Recent estimates indicate that mechanization of war has reached such a stage that at least twelve horsepower is required now for every one horsepower needed to run the machines of the first Great War. The scale of operations exceeds anything in the past, while more territory and people are involved than ever before. Many of our allies have inadequate or no facilities for producing the thousand and one articles absolutely necessary to the conduct of modern warfare. Lack of preparedness has made it necessary to produce at an unparalleled rate to gain parity with the enemy, while our losses have been so heavy that replacement, in itself, presents a task which might well stagger less courageous peoples. This means that not only is there an unprecedented demand for engineers to produce the machines, munitions, and supplies of war, but there is a correspondingly large need for men with engineering skill in the uniformed forces to operate and maintain the vast numbers of ships, 'planes, tanks, trucks, radios, and a myriad of other devices to carry on the varied activities of war. This abnormal demand came upon us after almost ten years of stagnation in the engineering industries. During this time many trained engineers drifted into other callings, while the lack of jobs for graduates caused a falling off in the number of men training for this profession. Consequently, the supply of well trained engineers was below normal when the madman of Germany precipitated us into the present turmoil. Added to all this, we in Canada are still suffering from governmental inefficiency in the utilization of the available supply of engineers. In the armed forces, engineers have been assigned to office and other work where their engineering training is not only wasted but for which men with more suitable training could be found. Mining engineers are debarred from service as aeronautical engineers, and students in mining engineering are denied the bursaries provided for aiding students in engineering. Mining and metallurgical engineers are both barred from the Ordnance department of the army. This arises from a misunderstanding in relation to engineering training. In Canadian engineering schools, all engineers are given a sound training in the branches of human knowledge which are fundamental to engineering: mathematics, physics, and chemistry. The basic difference between the several categories of engineers lies in the fact that training in the application of this fundamental knowledge to the solution of engineering problems is given in different subjects.

Jan 1, 1942

By Robin G. Adams

The market prices received by producers of internationally traded commodity metals have been, and continue to be remarkably volatile and unpredictable compared with most other traded goods and services. This volatility results in an erratic financial performance on the part of producing companies, disruptive and often inflationary cost changes for consumers, unreliable tax revenues and export earnings for host governments and severe social and economic pressures on local, sometimes remote, communities which are dependent on the activity in question. Generally speaking, price volatility appears to be associated with the inability of the metal producing side of the industry to regulate the volume of supply in a manner that is consistent with metal demand, which in turn reflects broad macroeconomic and industrial developments around the world. This statement does not purport to apply to all metals or to all instances of volatility of course. Price movements may occur as a result of pure speculation or even illegal manipulation of the commodity markets. Embargoes, boycotts and other politically induced supply changes may contribute. Threatened or actual strikes also cause artificial swings in sales volumes and prices. How- ever, most of these developments are of a short-term nature. Yet metals price cycles may last for several years, as demonstrated by the extended copper price trough from 1981 to 1986. This paper deals with price volatility which reflects long-term economic cycles and the adaptive processes that exist within the industry in response to such cycles. Special emphasis is placed on the role of forecasts and forecasters in these processes. It should be said at the outset that this reflects the personal experience of one forecaster working in private sector commercial consulting practices that are independent of producers, consumers and host governments. However, the experience does cover the entire period since 1973 and has involved working with a substantial majority of the major companies that supply high volume commodity metals. By way of background it should be stated that the post-1973 world economy has provided a challenging environment for forecasters. One cannot be precise about the forecasting record of either industry insiders or outside consultants, financial analysts and academic forecasters because comprehensive records have not been kept, or if they have the results are too embarrassing to be published. Institutions such as the World Bank have published forecasts of the prices of major commodities on a regular basis and these have, presumably, had some influence on financing decisions in the industry. This record along with our own experience and numerous discussions with metal producers, major consumers and host governments permits certain generalizations to be made. The most important of these is that during the early 1980s. from about 1980 through 1985/6, the forecasters system- atically and substantially over- estimated metal prices. While some fore- casters did correctly anticipate a recession in the early 1980s and some consequential decline in prices, the magnitude and duration of the decline was far greater than anyone foresaw. This systematic forecasting "failure" appears to have occurred independently of the forecasting methodology employed. Moreover, its extent cannot be explained by obvious factors such as incorrect macroeconomic assumptions. There appears to have been some kind of structural change in the world mining and metals industry over this period

Jan 1, 1989