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By W. C. Holliman

This second of a series of reports on the characteristics of commercial aviation gasolines presents inspection test data furni8hed on their products by 15 manufacturers of commercial grades of aviation gasoline and special data obtained in Bureau of Mines laboratories on samples of these gasolines. Data on 18 grade-80, 20 grade-91/98, 20 grade-100/130, and 9 grade-115/145 aviation fuels are presented. These gasolines represent July 1947 production.

Jan 1, 1948

By Dominic T. Jordan, Quinn G. Reynolds, Christopher J. Hockaday, Ian J. Barker

A direct-current (DC) plasma arc furnace is a type of electric furnace used for metallurgical operations. The successful operation of DC furnaces depends to a large extent on gaining a fundamental understanding of the arc phenomenon itself, and ensuring its presence in the furnace at all times. A method for detection of the presence of the arc in a DC circuit is presented, along with discussion of why this may be of value for certain modes of furnace operation such as brush-arc. The theoretical development of the method is presented along with supporting experimental work conducted on large-scale pilot-plant facilities.

Jan 1, 2014

By Siyu Song, Yanhong Wang, Guohua Gu, Linbo Huang

In this study, the effect of cations, Na+ and Mg2+, in saline water on copper flotation in the presence of calcium bentonite was investigated. It was found that as the concentration of NaCl was increased, the copper recovery initially decreased and then increased to above 99%, while the copper grade initially increased and then decreased. In contrast, as the concentration ofMgCl2 was increased, the copper recovery continuously increased, while the copper grade continuously decreased. The variation of copper recovery and grade was mainly attributed to the synergistic effect of pulp rheology and flotation solution chemistry. The underpinning mechanisms are the compressing electrical double layer and ion-exchange interaction between saline water and bentonite, which occur at the same time. Using salinewater slightly affected the pulp rheologywith a decrease in copper recovery at low NaCl concentration. Increasing the concentration of cations in saline water might even facilitate the flowing out of exchangeable cations, especially divalent cations, from the interlayer space of bentonite to the solution, resulting in the decrease of copper grade at high salt concentration.

Sep 10, 2020

By Truan-Sheng Lui, Li-Hui Chen, Fei-Yi Hung, Cheng-Yi Chen

"This research used the austempering heat treatment on the SCM435 thin specimen with a type of double loop and obtained the Cr-Mo bainite structure, and then we could further investigate the mechanical properties of SCM435 bainite structure. Experimental data showed the stability of the mechanical properties of specimen with austempering temperature 830°C for 25 minutes was better than that of 15 minutes. The size of austenite grain affected the strength of thin specimen. After austempering at 830°C-25minutes and salt bath at 290°C, the stability of UTS was better than that of salt bath at 310°C and 330°C. The average hardness of all specimens was about more than HRA70. The specimen with austempering at 830°C-25minutes and salt bath at 290°C-30minutes had bigger grain size of austenite and retained y, it also had higher hardness and strength toughness. So, its stability was improved for tensile strength comparing with traditional tempered martensite process.IntroductionSCM435 is a Cr-Mo steel with high strength and high hardness properties, and it has been widely used in machine parts, shafts, gears and strength screw products [1-3]. However, this system often has lower reliability due to the brittleness of high-temperature tempering and quenching inequality. Considering the austempering heat treatment can obtain the uniform bainite structure to improve the temper brittleness, and the austempering heat treatment is a continuous process that it also has efficiency and uniformity. For the thin plate specimens, the mechanical properties of the bainite structure are better than traditional martempering structures."

Jan 1, 2013

By P. J. Bethell

Background Increasingly complex geological conditions, with the presence of high ash binders in the mining horizon were encountered at the A.C. I. Dugout Mine near Price, Utah. This led to the production of high ash coal from the Dugout Mine during 2003 and 2004. This material had poor marketability and posed operating issues for the utilities burning the coal. Ash levels increased from typical levels in the 9-12% range to between 15 and 25%. etween 15 and 25%. Reviews of the mine plan and expected geological conditions indicated that further periods of high ash production could be expected. Action Plan Detailed sampling of the mine high ash production was carried out. The majority of the coal from the Dugout Mine is trucked to the Savage Coal Terminal (SCT) at Wellington, Utah where it is stored in multiple piles by quality. Coal at the mine is segregated by a CoalScan 2600, on-line analyzer into high ash, low ash and rock chute (waste material). From these piles, the material is crushed prior to shipment to SCT. The samples obtained from the various high ash piles were subjected to detailed sizing and washability analysis. Once this information was obtained, alternative circuit configurations were evaluated to process this material into a salable product. Water supplies in the arid terrain where the plant is located are scarce. This factor played a part in the final circuit design.

Jan 1, 2008

By Lance R. Barron

The U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) conducted ground pressure analysis of a wide abutment-type chain pillar in a two-entry gate road of a Western U.S. coal mine with an extremely weak immediate roof. About 15 m of fragile, low-strength mudstone lies between the seam and the lowest competent roof member. Three-and two-entry gate road designs with several pillar sizes and various secondary support systems have been employed to improve tailgate-entry stability, with varying results. This report discusses gate road layout and performance and secondary support effectiveness. The results of the pillar pressure study are compared to pillar loading predicted by a widely used pillar design method and to similar studies in other mines. A stability evaluation of the most recent longwall headgate, using the USBM Analysis of Longwall Pillar Stability (ALPS) method, indicates marginal stability in first-panel mining and instability in second-panel mining. The ALPS method and the USBM Coal Mine Roof Rating system are used to evaluate tailgate-mining stability of the previous gate roads and to determine pillar and entry width and top coal thickness criteria for tailgate stability in future panels.

Jan 1, 2010

By J. Robert Woolsey

This paper provides certain Southeastern coal-burning utilities with an economic strategy for complying with the sulfur dioxide emission standards set firth by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. The strategy takes advantage of the occurrence of vast quantities of manganese nodules on the Blake Plateau offshore Georgia and the Carolinas, a commodity which as been proven to be a highly effective dry sorbent of sulfur dioxide. Using existing technology, manganese nodules could be mined and transported via barge directly to power plant sites, where they would be used as filter material for cleaning sulfur dioxide from the effluents of coal-fired power plants. Completely sulfated filter material could be treated for the extraction of by-product metals such as cobalt, copper, nickel, and manganese. The strategy may well be enhanced by the occurrence of ore grade phosphate rock in the same area of the Blake Plateau. This phosphate rock could be simultaneously mined to effect a reduction in production costs if it is found to be suitable for use as either a direct application fertilizer or as an acidulated superphosphate fertilizer. The manganese nodule-based strategy offers a retrofitting solution for existing power plants that would minimize the capital costs for compliance with the Clean Air Act Amendments and has the added advantage of providing a number of other metal or fertilizer by-products.

Jan 1, 1992

By Benjamin Tillson

The hammer drill rightly receives the credit for having made the one-man drill possible, and so many economies seem possible through the proper application of :different types of hammer drills to various mining, quarrying, and, excavating operations, that an indication of the economies effected by the New Jersey Zinc Co. at its Franklin mines may be of pertinent interest. When this company commenced its trials of hammer drills in 1907, these tools had not I been developed to one-fourth the capacity and refinement which they have at present. At that time it was frequently stated that such a small tool, drilling holes of less diameter than the reciprocating rock drill, could not drill enough holes in a shift to permit the placing of sufficient explosive to break a tonnage of ore comparable with that produced by the"' rock drills;" that the placing of small holes inclined upward, at angles steeper than 40° above the horizontal, could not be expected to produce results equal to the large flat, wet or dry, holes in the breasted back of an overhand stope, and would only shatter the ground so as to make the back unsafe. In' spite of these adverse opinions, the hammer drills first showed their superiority over both heavy and light reciprocating drills in raising and in stoping, and then in drifting and quarry work. As a result, all of the reciprocating drills at the Franklin mines were scrapped, three years ago, all of the mining work being accomplished with increased efficiency, as shown in detail in this article. With the advent of the hammer drill in this property, it was considered advisable to make comparative tests of all the tools accessible, and it has since been the policy to investigate the merits of any advance of the drilling art in order to get the maximum amount of work from the tools. The necessity of devising some means of standardizing drill tests, and of measuring the consumption of compressed air as well as the drilling speed, was early realized.

Jan 2, 1915

By T van Zyl

Some standards are being used by the corrosion industry on a daily basis. This talk will cover how a standard comes into existence, the different types of standards and the voluntary/ compulsory nature of different standards. The maintenance of standards is discussed This talk also looks at how standards should be referenced, what reference to the mark scheme can be made and which national and international standards might be of value in the corrosion industry.

Jan 1, 2006

By W. H. Strickland, R. H. King

Ultrasonic ranging sensors are inexpensive, have no moving parts, have no lenses to clean, are normally small and unobtrusive, and can measure distances through moderate amounts of dust, smoke, and humidity, so they are well suited to underground mines. In the work reported here, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, researchers tested ultrasonic ranging sensors for their abiity to define rib line features for computer-aided navigation of underground mine mobile equipment. The investigation began with laboratory tests of field of view, angle of incidence, intersensor variation, and ranging accuracy of the individual rangers in a ring array produced by Denning Robotics of Wilmington, MA. The results showed that the sensors have good accuracy and low variability. Additional experiments at AMAX's Henderson Mine showed the sensors could accurately and reliably measure the distance to mine features, including convex and concave corners and rib intersections. The results showed that when used properly, the ranger data are accurate enough for reliable mine vehicle navigation When used incorrectly, ultrasonic rangers do not provide the anticipated data. Therefore, this report explains the principles of ultrasonic range measurement, describes the ranger's strengths and weaknesses, and explains proper ranger use and data analysis.

Jan 1, 1993

By M Rauer

With a worldwide growing population the demand for higher living standards, food and the development of new technology is rapidly rising. To allow for a continuous growth, larger quantities of minerals and raw materials are needed at a faster pace. Different methods have been developed to access or tap ore more quickly, such as improved drill and blast operations, mechanical mining methods using equipment such as roadheaders (RH), longwall miners and other technical equipment. Another possibility to access and develop mines faster is the use of a tunnel boring machine (TBM).The historical usage of TBMs is surprisingly long, but the opportunity for technology adoption by the majority of worldwide mining companies remains largely untapped. Dozens of full face TBMs have been used by mines around the world, including two that will begin operation soon in Australia. TBMs have been used to safely and rapidly gain access to the orebody, or to expand access to the orebody to increase output by running a TBM along the edge of the orebody for several kilometres. These machines have also been used for ventilation and for conveyor tunnels for ore removal. They have been used to quickly excavate long and winding declines giving access to an orebody at several levels in a short period of time.Tunnel boring technology can be used for mine declines, mine access tunnels and all sorts of different mine designs and set-ups. TBM technology simply needs to be adapted to the mine conditions and, if manufacturers are involved early on in the planning process for mine development, the operation can be very successful. In some cases, historically typical mine designs may need to be re-thought.One mine, the Stillwater Platinum mine in Nye, Montana, is currently employing its fourth TBM in 25 years. Two were used to create tunnels running alongside the orebody, rapidly expanding access to the orebody in many locations for increased output. Two were used to create parallel access tunnels to a mine expansion at the East Boulder orebody; one tunnel is for conveyor haulage and the other for vehicular access. TBMs have been employed successfully many times to rapidly drive vehicular decline tunnels to multiple mine levels, such as at the San Manuel – Magma Copper mine in the USA. While TBM technology may not seem to be optimal for every mine, these success stories show that the method can provide vast benefits for the right projects.Early use of TBMs in extremely hard rock metal mines, in the 1960s and 1970s, had limited success since performance was low. However there have been great improvements made over the years in the strength of rock which can be excavated by TBMs with high performance. Other important improvements involve the provision of a safe work environment, safely and rapidly supporting the rock and predicting geology ahead of the TBM.This paper will briefly note the more than 20 TBM mining projects and highlight some notable successes. It will then go on to give a status report on the two active TBM mining projects in Australia and the difference between a TBM operation versus other excavation methods such as drill and blast (D&B) or RH excavation.CITATION:Rauer, M, 2014. Tunnel boring machines in mines – a?brief review of past use with a status report on use today in Australia, in Proceedings 15th Australasian Tunnelling Conference 2014 , pp 663–670 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 17, 2014

By Harry H. Power

The Specific purposes of forma! engineering education include training in the basic sciences, the engincering-prob]em method, the rudimentary development of technical skills, an appreciation of values and costs, and an understanding of the art of engineering as distinguished from its science, Two major divisions of an educational program in engineering are recognized: (I) the scientific-technological, and (2) the humanistic-social. Hence, the entire curriculum for the four-year program in specialized petroleum engineering schools must be designed to give the student an initial impetus in the directions indicated. In accordance with suggestions from the Engineering Council for Professional Development, Inore attention is being given to the fundamental approach in the undergraduate curriculum. This paper presents a cross-sectional viewpoint of the various educators in the petroleum engineering schools concerning course contents in the specialized curricula An outline is suggested for the content of the specialized courses wherein the engineering problem method or quantitative approach is emphasized. Although the particular viewpoints of the author have been stressed, yet due acknowledgment is made to a considerable number of petroleum engineering educators and in in industry interested in educational work, for their contribution of course outlines or helpful suggestions with respect to programs that will be of maximum value to students, institutions, and the industry they serve. Although "standardization" of course material is not suggested, the advantage to be gained by cooperative determination of purpose and scope are apparent paiticular1y from 'he standpoint of the proper accreditment of petroleum engineering schools by petroleum engineering educetors who have laid a basis from which to measure educational values. Petroleum engineering has "come of age" and deserves the same careful attention with respect to. curricula that has been accorded other engineering branches. Introduction Engineering schools have a major responsibility to the public, to industry and to the professions they serve. The specific purposes of formal education include training in the basic sciences, the engineering-problem method, the rudimentary development of technical skills, an reciaciation of values and costs, and an understanding of the art of engineering as distinguished from its science. Other purposes implied include the ability to read, write, and speak the English language effectively, an understanding of social and human relationships, a knowledge of the duties of citizenship, a broad appreciation of cultural interests, and an indoctrination in professional standards and relations. Throughout these educational processes is the development in the student of habits of accuracy, thoroughness, powers of analysis, creative ability and integrity with respect to all phases of his work. Major Divisions of Program In the Report of the Society for the Promotion of Engineering Education,† two † Report of Committee on Engineering Education after the War, dated January 1944.

Jan 1, 1945

By Concha F, Sampaio R

In most of the literature, the hydrocyclone is viewed as a black box in which only global variables are present and where the equations are obtained by curve fitting. Recently some work has appeared where the Navier Stokes equations are solved numerically in the hydrocyclone geometry. However, in all of these works the air core surface, which has an important influence on the hydrocyclone dynamical behaviour, is modelled as being a cylindrical surface of fixed radius. In this work, we model the surface of the air core as a free-boundary which has to satisfy a jump condition, the Young-Laplace equation, relating the physics to the geometry. Based on this model, we are able to explain, qualitatively, some phenomena that have puzzled research workers in the field for many years, and can show, through the air core behaviour, the influence of material parameters on the performance of the hydrocyclone.

Jan 1, 1993

By L. Zwell, H. A. Wriedt

In describing their procedure for measuring the lattice parameters of solid solutions, Abrahamson and Lopata report (p. 77) the final heat treatment of their alloy specimens as "700°C for 100 hr, followed by a furnace cool". The isothermal part of this treatment may be expected to precipitate solute in excess of the stable a solid-solution limit at 700°C; the subsequent slow cooling is likely to reduce the dissolved solute still further. Fig. 1 (upper) presents the data for titanium alloys so he;rt-treated and shows the lattice parameters of solid solutions containing up to 3.5 at. pct Ti; Fig. 17 (lower) shows 2 at. pct Ti as the solubility limit in a iron at 700°C. Figs. 1 and 17 are thus incompatible. The paper contains comparable incon~patibilities for zirconium alloys, for niobium alloys, and for tantalum alloys. The final heat treatment at 700°C may also be responsible for the anomalous "knee" in the lattice-parameter data for nickel alloys, Fig. 3. The "knee" composition is located near the 700°C limit of the stable a solid-solution field;37 alloys of the experimental composition range with more nickel than the "knee" composition are two-phase at 700 C and prolonged heat treatment of them at 700°C would tend to produce inhomogeneity rather than homogeneity. In Figs. 4 and 7, the composition ranges of the zirconium, hafnium, and niobium alloys examined terminate at alloy concentrations of 0.1 to 0.2 at. pct. These metals form very stable oxides and their partial removal from solid solution in iron by impurity oxygen may be expected. We believe that the authors should have reported the procedure by which they distinguished the amounts of alloying elements in solution and in oxide. The diagrams pertaining to copper in Figs. 3 and 18 (lower) are almost certainly incorrect. Three recent investigations of this system38-40 all substantially agree on the solubility of copper in a iron, finding it to be much larger than that reported by Abrahamson and Lopata. The change of the lattice parameter with composition reported by Abrahamson and Lopata is too large by a factor of three to five, as seen by comparison with the findings of other investigators.41738 Moreover, the authors violate, in Fig. 18, the accepted Fe-Cu constitution diagram37 by ignoring the eutectoid at about 850°C.

Jan 1, 1967

By William A. Johnson

THE mathematical analysis of diffusion curves in solid metals is Carried out ordinarily by analogy with the flow of heat in a continuous medium and no account is taken of the fact that the materials involved are composed of discrete particles that move discrete distances at irregular intervals. It is possible to treat the problem on the basis of simple assumed atomic mechanisms, in which case, because of the small scale of the elementary process compared to the gross effects observed experimentally, the two procedures lead to the same expression for the variation of concentration with distance. Thus, for engineering purposes, the usual methods are quite satisfactory. If, on the other hand, our purpose is to go beyond the mere collection of data, however desirable this may be, it is necessary to recognize and understand the factors that are of fundamental importance. One factor that has not hitherto been considered when dealing with solid metals is the difference in atomic weights of the isotopes of a single metal. While all the atoms of a given element are alike chemically, their weights may vary by a small but significant amount, and atoms of different weights may have different diffusion rates. With gases this variation in isotopic weight produces a change in the rate of diffusion by a factor inversely proportional to the square root of mass. While, except for the lightest gases, this is not a large effect, it is, for example, sufficient to permit a considerable concentration of one isotope at the expense of others. If metals exhibit a similar phenomenon, some modification of the analysis of the diffusion process will be required, since the different isotopes of a given metal will have different probabilities of moving and the heat-flow analogy will contain a fundamental error. This situation cannot be rectified by using a diffusion coefficient based on the average probability of moving, and it can be shown that even when the diffusion coefficient is independent of composition, the diffusion curve will not agree with the simple theory except in the rare cases where only one isotope exists; e.g., gold. If, however, the mass effect in the solid state were no larger than in the gaseous, the errors arising therefrom in the analysis of ordinary diffusion curves would be quite negligible. Nevertheless, our desire to obtain all possible information concerning the details of the diffusion process, and the possibility of diffusion in the solid state as a means for separating isotopes are cogent reasons for undertaking an experimental study to determine whether isotopes of different masses diffuse at different rates. EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE If isotopes of different masses diffuse at different rates, the ratio of the concentration of one relative to another will vary with the distance from the diffusion inter-

Jan 1, 1946

By Denise C. R. Espinosa

The amount of secondary batteries are increasing about 15% by year. Among these batteries, it can be highlighted the NiCd ones, due to their high consumption. In Brazil, the consumption of NiCd batteries grown quickly in the last 5 years, due to the dissemination of cellular telephones and other electronic devices. The first step of a process to recycle spent NiCd batteries is the pretreatment through unit operations of mining treatment. The aim of this work is to define a physical pretreatment to conditioning the waste to a pyrornetallurgical recycling process of spent NiCd batteries used in cellular telephones. Batteries were disassembled by hand to release the different components. The studied batteries are basically composed (by weight) of: 78% nucleus, 18% plastic case and 2% circuits. The grinding of the batteries was performed by knife mill and also by hammer mill. After grinding the material was screened and submitted to a magnetic separator.

Jan 1, 2001

By ZHONGLING ZHAO, WANTING SONG, GUOZHONG LIU, LEIXIN SHI, ZUI WANG, YUANYUAN LIU, KE GAO, DONGHONG JIANG, WANG LUO, PEICHAO LU, Jianwei Cheng, WANCHENG ZHENG, Gang Zhao, YUNGANG WANG, JIANBING ZHAO

Coal spontaneous combustion is one of the disasters occurring in underground coal mines. As a typical case, the spontaneous combustion of broken coal left in the longwall gobs often happen which could greatly interrupt the normal mining production. Such concealed thermal event is featured as rapid development and difficulty in locating “hot” spots. If such spontaneous combustion fails to be timely prevented and controlled, a large amount of toxic gases (mainly CO) and smoke could flow and diffuse in the underground working sections, which could present safety hazards for coal miners. In this paper, based on an coal spontaneous combustion event happened in a Chinese gassy mine, the fire ratios derived from the gas composition data obtained through the tube bundle mine atmospheric monitoring system are used in determining the fire status. A comprehensive and collaborative fire extinguishing effort including inert gas injection, underground pressure balance, and sealing enhancement are made to control the fire progress. Simultaneously, the effects of such works to control the spontaneous combustion event have also been quantified using the fire ratios to justify again. Finally, the danger of coal spontaneous combustion in gob is eliminated, and the longwall panel is successfully re-opened for normal production.

May 6, 2021

By R. F. Abernethy

A modified Unterzaucher method was applied to the direct determination of oxygen in coal. Coal samples were pyrolyzed in a nitrogen atmosphere, and the gaseous oxygen compounds liberated were converted to carbon monoxide by a platinized-carbon catalyst at 9000 C. After passing over heated copper and through a tube containing soda-asbestos and magnesium perchlorate, the purified carbon monoxide was oxidized to carbon dioxide by iodine pentoxide--liberating an equivalent amount of iodine. The iodine was titrated with 0.02 ~ sodium thiosulfate; in a few tests the weight of carbon dioxide produced was determined. Direct oxygen determinations of coal included organic oxygen from the coal substance, plus a small quantity of inorganic oxygen derived principally from carbonate minerals and from combined water of silicates in the mineral matter. The influence of mineral matter on the direct oxygen determination was investigated by testing (1) untreated coal, (2) demineralized coal from which most of the mineral matter except pyrite was removed by treatment with hydrofluoric and hydrochloric acids, and (3) coal samples treated with dilute hydrochloric acid.

Jan 1, 1966

By Thomas M. Dr. Drown

IN experimenting in connection with Mr. P. W. Shimer (now chemist of the Thomas Iron Company, Hokendauqua, Pa.) on methods for the determination of silicon in pig iron, in order to find one which should be accurate and yet give results in a few hours, I have adopted the following procedure, which, as far as my experience goes, leaves nothing to be desired. About one gram of pig iron or steel is treated in a platinum or porcelain dish with 25 cubic centimeters of nitric acid (sp. gr. 1, 2). When action has ceased, 25 to 30 cubic centimeters of dilute sulphuric acid (one of acid and three of water) are added, and heat applied until the nitric acid is nearly or quite driven off. The heat of a water-bath is sufficient, though the process may be hastened by heating higher on a sand-bath. Water is then cautiously added (as soon as the free sulphuric acid is sufficiently cool) and the contents of the dish heated until the crystals of ferric sulphate are completely dissolved. The solution is then filtered as hot as possible, the residue washed first with hot water, then with 25 to 30 cubic centimeters of hydrochloric acid (sp. gr. 1, 12), and finally with hot water. After drying and igniting, the silica will be found to be snow-white and granular. The following are some results obtained by this method compared

Jan 1, 1879

By Peter J. King

Demand for both lead and zinc to the year 2000 will be characterised by modest to nil growth in mature economies, with positive 3 to 4 per cent annual growth rates in developing nations. Asia and China will feature significantly in this growth. Overall lead demand is expected to grow about 1 per cent a year, with industry becoming more dependent on the fortunes of the automotive industry as the lead-acid battery will be the only major end use to expand. Zinc will become more dependent on its main use, galvanising, as the automotive and construction industries move to high levels of dependence on corrosion prevention. Strong growth in zinc consumption in S.E. Asia, China and India is likely to feature widespread development of the continuous steel strip mini-galvanising line technology. Thank you Mr. Chairman for inviting me to this Conference. As an Australian I am honoured to be here to offer some thoughts about future trends in metal consumption -- with particular reference to the role of countries in my own neighbourhood, the developing Asian nations, including China. It is customary for a member of the producer fraternity to speak to the topic of future development. This is no doubt due to the fact that our companies are so often engaged in endeavours to determine the future prospects of the metals as essential background to massive investment decisions relating to the development of new mines and smelters. This is sometimes also applied in relation to the more painful decision of closures of aging operations. In this paper I have drawn upon recent studies by AM&S into the future of lead and zinc. While this work has been thorough and skillful, we are nonetheless left with uncertainty on a number of counts. Firstly. predictions in the past in our industry have not been all that credible. Need I remind a U.S. audience for instance of the Paley ' investigation setup by President Truman in 1950 to study U.S. copper requirements for 25 years in the future. Asarco's Simon Strauss gave those of us daring to forecast long term commodity trends a salutary reminder that the Paley Commission with all the expertise at its disposal missed the mark in its copper predictions by a very wide margin indeed. Additionally, it is difficult to take comfort from longer term economic forecasts. Too many important economic issues remain unresolved suggesting considerable caution. These include the threat of growing protectionism; low economic growth rates with stubborn unemployment levels; and levels of government expenditure at near saturation as a percentage of GDP, to name a few. However, on a more optimistic note. we can look to China, where there appears to be momentum in its economic growth; oil, where stable oil prices to the mid 1990's will contribute to inflation control; and the fact that LDC debt, while still a major issue, is declining in importance and priority. In the short time allocated to us. I wish to deal succinctly with the lead and zinc raw materials supply picture, which is one I do not believe will hold too many surprises for this audience. Following the review of raw materials supply, we will turn our attention to the changes in the pattern of demand towards the year 2000. emphasising the Asian position. In this context. I would like to focus on the theme of the changes in OECD consumption levels relative to those of the emerging nations. One area we will be paying special attention to is China.

Jan 1, 1986