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By Svetlana Krashenina, Nebojsa Petrovic, Oscar Lopez

"As easily mined gold deposits are becoming increasingly rare, gold producers are turning to the processing of ores with polymetallic and copper mineralization. These base metals can create metallurgical and waste handling/disposal challenges, which can render the project uneconomic. Base metals such as copper compete for the cyanide reagent used to extract gold, necessitating the need to increase cyanide volumes and consequently, cyanide consumption costs. Copper will also stabilize in tailings water as weak acid dissociable cyanide, a form that is both difficult and costly to destruct. SART (sulphidization-acidification-recycling-thickening) process technology can be applied to remove base metal interferences in gold projects. SART breaks the copper-cyanide complex and precipitates the copper as a saleable copper sulphide concentrate. With the copper removed, the cyanide can be regenerated as free cyanide for recycle to the gold recovery process. This improves cyanide utilization efficiency and mitigates copper presence in tailings. Additionally, copper recovery generates an incremental revenue source to further improve project economics. Engineering Dobersek GmbH together with BioteQ developed a SART and AVR testing program to recover cyanide and maximize operational efficiencies at a gold processing plant in Kazakhstan with high cyanide consumption in the leach circuit. Results from on-site testing demonstrated that up to 99.98% of copper can be removed and precipitated as copper sulphide and 60-90% of cyanide can be recovered from the AVR and recycled for leaching, reducing total overall cyanide use. This paper provides an overview of the testing methodology and results together with a discussion on the potential of SART to improve gold production operations to deliver both environmental and economic benefits."

Jan 1, 2014

By K. J. Henderson

INTRODUCTION Shrinkage mining at Inco Ltd.'s Crean Hill mine can best be defined as a horizontal breasting method utilizing the broken ore for the mining floor and to provide wall support, with draw from a series of boxholes or draw¬points at the base of the stoping block. In choosing to shrink a given block of ore, the initial investigation centers on the ore configuration and grade, the expected ground conditions in the stoping area, the expected profit compared to alternative mining methods, the future production requirements, development lead time, the availability and type of equipment in the area, and the availability of experienced miners. These factors are weighed against other mining methods and shrinkage mining is chosen when the advantages outweigh the dis¬advantages. These will be discussed in more detail later. At Inco Ltd.'s Crean Hill mine, shrinkage mining makes up 17% of total mine production and is decreasing due to the advent of advanced blasthole techniques, notably in-the-hole drilling. Shrinkage is an adaptable mining method that is currently employed in narrow irregular ore zones, as undercuts for in-the-hole blast¬hole stopes, in ore bodies that do not extend from level to level, and in areas where quick production is required with a minimum of capital outlay or minimum develop¬ment. Two major types are currently in use which are classified on the basis of type of draw system employed. These are the utilization of load-haul-dump (LHD) equipment drawing from drawpoints, and the slusher and train method drawing from boxholes into a slusher trench and loading into a train. A third method being phased out is drawing from chutes directly into a train. In all three methods the actual stoping operation remains the same. In the initial planning of a mining block, the ore body is first located using an exploration diamond drill¬ing program. This is essentially done at a 130-m (400¬ft) spacing and it gives an indication of the amount of ore, grade of ore, the configuration of the ore body, as well as other geological features such as ground condi¬tions which will affect future mining. This drilling is done from an exploration drift 165 m (500 ft) long in the hanging wall and covers a vertical extent of 330 to 670 m (1000 to 2000 ft). However, these data are not accurate enough for detailed planning. When the de¬cision has been made to mine, a preliminary develop¬ment drill drift is driven in such a position that it can serve the dual purposes of allowing the ore body to be drilled off in detail, or of later serving as a haulage or access drift. Diamond drilling from this drift is usually on a 15-m (50-ft) grid spacing and gives adequate information for detailed planning. Utilizing the drill data, a decision is made on the mining type. For a shrinkage operation, the stoping block is ideally 49 m (150 ft) in length and a maximum of 13 m (40 ft) in width. Lengths of 65 m (200 ft) are considered a practical maximum because of the length of time the back of the stope remains open during the min¬ing of a cut. A minimum length of 13 m (40 ft) is used because the amount of time spent in opening a new cut increases in comparison with the total stoping time. The maximum width of 13 m (40 ft) is used because ex¬perience with the ground indicates that generally stope backs tend to be unstable over greater widths. However, widths of 33 m (100 ft) have been mined. A minimum width of 5 m (15 ft) is used to allow an effective draw, but in unusual cases, a width of 3 m (10 ft) has been mined successfully. The dip of the ore should not be less than 1.04 rad (60°). Angles flatter than this will not pull properly resulting in inefficient mining because of ore hang-ups on the footwall side of the stope and the need for large stagings on the hanging wall. In considering shrinkage, mining ground conditions play an important role. Strong shearing, cross faulting, or dikes are avoided. These usually cause dangerous mining conditions and an alternative safer mining method which will give adequate support to these adverse ground conditions is employed. Production requirements are taken into considera¬tion when planning a shrinkage mining program. In it¬self, shrinkage mining is capable of producing ore in a relatively short time with little capital development. If quick production is required, this method can produce ore rapidly as all that is required is that the draw system be completed and the miners with jacklegs and stopers produce a limited amount of ore. The obvious disadvan¬tage is that not all the ore broken can be pulled from the stope immediately. However, a mining horizon with sev¬eral shrinkage stopes in different stages of production can adequately maintain scheduled tonnage require¬ments, the cycle being stopes under development, stopes actively mining, and stopes completed and pulling. When the decision has been made to use shrinkage mining in a given block, the haulage and draw system is driven. The proximity of the orepass system dictates whether the system is to be a LHD operation or a slusher trench operation. If the orepass system is in close prox¬imity to the stoping block, LHD equipment is employed because of its ability to operate efficiently over short haulage distances. A long tram to the orepass usually dictates a slusher trench operation with haulage by train. Internal orepass systems are used effectively with LHD equipment with a load-out and retramming taking place on a lower horizon. In addition, stoping blocks in older areas of the mine are developed track because of the capital cost involved in converting an existing level to trackless mining. DRIFT DEVELOPMENT USING LHD EQUIPMENT The haulage drift for a draw system using LHD equipment is driven parallel to the ore body in the foot¬wall at a sufficient distance to allow an 11.5-m (35-ft) drawpoint to be driven into the ore (Fig. 1). The actual position of the drift depends entirely upon the ore con¬figuration and the drift size depends on the equipment to be used. Drift sizes of 4.6 x 4.1 m (14 x 121/2 ft) for an St-4 and 3.8 x 3.6 m (111/2 x 11 ft) for an St-2 meet company and government clearance standards and allow sufficient space to accommodate a ventilation pipe. The

Jan 1, 1982

By D. Mohan

Soft to medium dense silty and clayey soils are found in many parts of India and conventional friction piles have normally been used for foundations of high rise buildings and other structures on such soils. The author investigated the use of Bored Compaction Piles and these have been used on these soils achieving substantial economies in cost over conventional friction piles. Similarly highly expansive clays, commonly known as Indian Black Cotton Soils occupy about 20 percent of the Indian land area. Short bored underreamed piles have been developed for such soils and a very large construction of various types of buildings and other structures have come up on such piles over the last thirty years in various parts of the country. The paper describes investigations leading to the design and development of both these type of foundations.

Jan 1, 1989

By Walter R. Curtner

Many, if not most, of today's pollution liability claims are related to events ("occurrences") that happened in the past. This fact creates an opportunity to obtain a large amount of insurance coverage at essentially no cost. Furthermore, in many cases, this insurance coverage is readily available. Scenario #1 For some 15 years, an underground gas tank has had a slow leak. The leak has now been discovered because the gas has contaminated nearby wells. As a result, an expensive $1 million cleanup is required. In addition, a liability suit has been filed for damages due to the contamination of nearby wells. Consequently, legal expenses are being incurred. Are all of these actual and potential costs insured? Obviously, if you have a pollution liability policy in place, the above costs will probably be insured. I say probably because business liability policies are not uniform. But, what if you don't have a pollution liability policy and what if your current general liability policy excludes all pollution liability (as most of them do today)? Under these circumstances, it first appears there is no insurance for this $1 million cleanup and liability suit. But this is probably not the case. You may well have insurance coverage, and you may well have much more insurance coverage than you ever expected. And, the insurance that I'm referring to is already in place. You simply need to find it and learn how to use this insurance - I'm referring to your old policies. In many cases, old liability insurance policies provide coverage for claims made today, because these policies were written on an "occurrence" basis of coverage. In fact, most still are written this way. This means that the insurance policy covers bodily injury or property damage liabilities (as defined in the policy) arising out of' "occurrences" or accidents that happen during the policy period regardless of' when the claim for damages is made. Therefore, for insurance purposes, the key question is: when did the "occurrence" take place? If someone falls and breaks a leg, that is clearly an "occurrence." The broken leg occurrence is, therefore, insured by the liability policy that was in existence at the time of the fall - regardless of when the claim or suit is filed, if ever. However, the answer to this question is seldom an easy one when you are looking at a pollution claim. In our scenario, the tank had a slow leak over 15 years, but property damage was not discovered until now. The question of when the "occurrence" (as defined in the insurance policy) took place has been litigated and continues to be litigated in many courts across the country. But, most often the answer has been that, for insurance purposes, the "occurrence" is the entire period that the tank was leaking (15 years), even though the contamination to the water was not discovered until 1987. This means that the person or company that is insured can potentially use all of its general liability policies (if they are "occurrence" policies, and most were), which were purchased during the 15 years from 1972 until 1987. And, these policies will potentially insure all of the claims and related exposures that arise out of this leaky underground gas tank. Scenario #2 In our first scenario, the claims and expenses were insured by past general liability policies because the claims arose out of events in the past, which, in turn, caused damage. Let's look at another example. In this scenario, Company XYZ has received a request to help clean up a landfill site because 10 years ago, XYZ dumped some toxic substances at the site, which was totally legal at the time. XYZ has not dumped anything at the site since this time. Nevertheless, XYZ is now being required to contribute $2 million to the cleanup of this site. In this scenario, if you had purchased "occurrence" general liability policies 10 years ago, these 1977 policies would (potentially) apply to the current $2 million cleanup claim. And, the reason is that the "occurrence" leading to the 1987 claim took place in 1977.

Jan 10, 1987

By W. E. Coates

The social ecology of surface mining in urban areas is illustrated by a case study of a recent application for the opening of a new gravel pit in the city of Guelph, including the design of a progressive extraction-rehabilitation sequence for the property, investigation of the ecological impact of the proposed operation, history of the application procedure for a zoning change and the relationship of the operating plan to provincial legislation controlling surface mining.

Jan 1, 1972

By M. G. Rylatt

The Ekati process plant flowsheet features the common steps in diamond recovery plant design. Primary treatment and concentration is by crushing, scrubbing, high-pressure grinding rolls and heavy medium separation (Fig. 1). Secondary concentration is by an attrition mill; wet, high-intensity magnetic separation and X-ray sorting (Fig. 2). All of these are performed on site, although final sorting of the diamonds into commercial categories will be carried out elsewhere. The initial throughput rate is 9 kt/d (9,900 stpd), increasing to 18 kt/d (20,000 stpd) during the first 10 years of operation. A range of ore characteristics will be encountered that will effect the plant operating conditions during the life of the mine. The adopted design envelope is based on these expected variations. The design is based on the use of large-scale equipment, incorporating the latest and most efficient technology available. Where proven technology exists, no attempt was made to reinvent the wheel. However, where recently developed technology offers a significant advantage, this has been incorporated into the design. The Ekati run-of-mine (ROM) and coarse ore handling facilities are unheated, to take advantage of the better handling characteristics of the frozen ore in winter. The stockpile reclaim features an MMD mineral sizer (a toothed roll crusher) to minimize the problems of handling thawed, sticky kimberlite in the summer and break frozen lumps in the winter. All processing downstream from primary crushing and the coarse ore stockpile is carried out in a temperature-controlled environment in the main process plant building. Personnel involvement in the process is mini¬mized by using a Modicon Quantum series PLC with human-machine-interfaces (HMI) running Wonder-ware software on dedicated personal computers.

Jan 1, 1999

Careful financial analysis of capital investments has always been a vital task in mining which is one of the most capital intensive sectors of the economy. Furthermore, mining costs have leapt ahead at an astonishing rate in recent years not just due to accelerated inflation, which affects everyone, but also due to the imposition of enormous costs of enviromental regulation and the continuing decline in ore tenor. Not only have unit costs risen, but the amount of effort expended to recover a pound of metal has increased due to the inexorable decrease in ore grades. New low-margin, high-volume mining investments place increasing importance on sound financial planning. Owing to the enormous investments involved, a greater share of individual corporate resources is committed to these projects than is normally the case in other industries. Thus, the consequences of failure are extremely grave, and a close examination of all inputs to the evaluation equation is clearly indicated.

Jan 1, 1979

By Richard L. Sayrs

The Idol zinc prospect, formerly known as the Comstock, was examined by Harold B. Ewoldt, a Bureau of Mines' engineer, accompanied by Deane F. Kent of the United States Geological Survey on July 22, 1943. Previous to that time, the Geological Survey had contoured and studied the area. As a part of the war minerals program, further investigation of the area was recommended. The Dalton property, a mile and a half northeast of the Idol property, was examined during the progress of the work at the Idol, and it was decided to include this property also in the project. From February 7, 1944, to May 16, 1944, six holes totaling 2,739 feet were diamond-drilled on the Idol property and eight holes totaling 1,850 feet were diamond-drilled, and three pits channel sampled on the Dalton property. The drilling showed sphalerite to be sparsely distributed through a 100 foot thickness of the Kingsport member of the Knox dolomite.

Jan 1, 1949

By Alexandr I. Volkhin

It is practically useful to separate copper from nickel at the fire refining stage of blister copper by transferring nickel in electrochemical inert silicides which are being concentrated further into the tank-house slimes. The treatment of copper melt by silicon-containing reagents is resulted in lowering the interfacial tension of the melt, its deoxidizing, selective siliconizing of in-melt nickel and forming a by-product with fluxing properties. Si-containing reagents have positive influence on results of fire and electrolytic refining, and further pulverizing of copper in plant conditions.

Jan 1, 2006

By J. C. Borland, J. H. Rogerson

Jan 1, 1963

By R. K. Collings

Mineral wastes from the mining, metallurgical and chemical processing industries in Canada amount to about 800 million tonnes annually. Such wastes often are largely non-metallic in composition and are of interest for traditional non-metallic mineral uses and applications. Mineral waste disposal and maintenance are costly; furthermore, these wastes may pollute groundwater, rivers and lakes. These factors and an increased appreciation of the potential utility of some mineral wastes have stimulated research in this area.

Jan 1, 1984

By Larry Dale

An approach for predicting the development of mineral resources on public lands has been developed as an aid to resource agencies. It consists of new techniques for evaluating the economic potential of the resource, the uncertainty about mine cost estimates, and the uncertainty about the occurrance of mineral deposits. New mineral sup- plies from inferred and hypothetical resources can be predicted by using these techniques. A case study illustrates their application in predicting development of copper resources in western Montana.

Jan 1, 1982

By A. D. Davis

Naturally occurring arsenic has been detected in water from inactive mines and several wells in the Keystone area of the Black Hills. Keystone City Well #4 showed a total arsenic concentration of 69 parts per billion (ppb) during pumping in 2004. The well is not used currently except for arsenic-removal research. Water also can be pumped from a mine shaft in the abandoned Keystone ? Columbia ? Bullion gold mines, whose interconnected workings flooded after mining ceased in the 1930s. This water has been considered for local supplies, although it would require treatment or blending because of arsenic concentrations. According to historical records, the Bullion Mine produced 100,000 pounds of white arsenic. An aquifer test on the mine workings was performed at a pumping rate of about 550 gallons per minute. The arsenic concentration in pumped water was 33 ppb. In addition to wells within Keystone, samples from the water supply at nearby Mount Rushmore National Memorial have shown arsenic concentrations greater than 10 ppb, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s maximum contaminant level for arsenic in drinking water. Limestone-based technology for removal of arsenic from drinking water is an innovative and promising method that has been considered for treatment of water at Keystone. In batch testing with water from Keystone Well #4, limestone removed about 65% of arsenic from solution. A related problem of arsenic removal from drinking water involves disposal of the waste product, which is critical for commercial viability of removal technologies. Current research is investigating thermal stability of the waste in order to determine the potential for recycling of the material during manufacture of cement.

Jan 1, 2010

The light microscopic study of the physical structures of coal and associated mineral matter is an important technique in providing information on the characterisitics and possible behaviour of coals in industrial processes. However the ultrafine nature of coal and mineral particles together with the limits of resolution of the light microscope restrict such studies. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM)with its better resolution and higher magnifications is the means by which further information on coal properties can be obtained. An associated energy dispersive X-ray specrometry (EDS) method allows non-destructive in-situ chemical analyses to be carried out at the same time.

Jan 1, 1989

By J. M. Clark

(Wilkes-Barre Meeting, June, 1911.) For some years past, those interested in the development of the increasingly important mining industry of Canada, have urged the adoption by the Dominion Parliament of a federal mining-law, which would have the force and stability of statutory enactment. At present, placer-mining in the Yukon Territory, is governed by the Yukon Placer Mining Act. All other mining under federal jurisdiction is governed by 'Orders in Council and Ministerial Regulations. In the earlier stages of development, it is perhaps a matter of necessity that these important matters should be so dealt with; but it is now felt that the time has come when mining-rights in the extensive regions under federal control should be put on a permanent basis, -and that any changes required from time to time should be made only after full and open discussion in Parliament. A short sketch will suffice to indicate how vast and varied the interests affected really are. When the Dominion of Canada was constituted by the Imperial Statute known as the British North America Act of 1867 (which came into force by proclamation on July 1 of that year), it comprised only the present Provinces of Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick; but provision was made for the inclusion of Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, British Columbia, Rupert's Land, and the North West Territories. Subsequently Rupert's Land and the North West Territories were acquired, the 'Crown Colonies of British Columbia and * SECRETARY'S NOTE.-Mr. Clark, an eminent Canadian lawyer, and joint author of the treatise on "The Law of Mines in Canada," has been requested by the Do¬minion Government to prepare a Federal mining-law, and presents this paper, by invitation of the Council, in order to obtain, if possible, useful suggestions from members of the Institute.-R. W. R.

Apr 1, 1911

By Augustus Locke

The paper has two parts: the field argument and the microscopic argument. The field argument indicates that either the deep chalcocite has replacea sulfide of extraordinarily easy replaceability or it is hypogene. The microscopic argumentindicates that this sulfide, if it existed, must have been hypogene bornite; that this bornite must so excel known bornite in replaceability as to constitute a new variety; that the existence of this new variety is wholly unsupported by evidence; and that the deep Butte chalcocite is therefore hypogene. IN 1900, when the public first heard of "secondary enrichment" the Butte chalcocite seemed clearly supergene. Mining, through successive regions of leached capping, bonanza sulfide, and sulfide less rich, had paused at lean bottom levels which, though chalcocite-bearing, suggested the waning of copper. The deepest chalcocite, at 1500 ft., was yet too shallow to disturb the supergene hypothesis. But, with deeper mining, lean levels yielded to fat ones. Here and there they showed, within the same vein, an inverted distribution, chalcopyrite above and chalcocite below. To the miners' astonishment, they carried chalcocite, unaffected by cross faults, on an independent course to the depth of 2500 ft. The pattern of ore distribution, hitherto revealed only in fragments, was now appearing in perspective, and, in the depth of the chalcocite, was beginning to make Butte differ from all districts where the chalcocite is indubitably supergene. The idea of hypogene origin at length came into favor; by 1913, when Sales1 advocated this origin, the argument had become a powerful one. This argument rested on field evidence; but, already, there was beginning to emerge microscopic evidence not included in this arugment. Especially pertinent was the proof that (1) The deep chalcocite lies in-mixed with bornite, often microscopic; (2) the deep chalcocite often replaces bornite; and (3) replacement of bornite by chalcocite is accom-

Jan 3, 1924

By E. H. Jr. Dix

THE consideration of alloying elements for aluminum has led to a series of investigations of the equilibrium relations between aluminum and those alloying elements. Therefore, the aluminum end of the aluminum-antimony diagram has been studied. The general form of the aluminum-antimony equilibrium diagram has been worked out by Campbell and Mathews1 and by Tammann.2 Campbell and Mathews described principally the beginning of solidification. They found the curve of beginning of solidification to rise gradually from the melting point of pure aluminum to a maximum at about 67 per cent. aluminum. After a slight lowering of the curve at a little greater antimony concentration the curve again rises to a maximum at 18.4 per cent. aluminum, which corresponds to the compound AlSb. The curve then drops to the melting point of pure antimony. Tammann explained the maximum occurring at about 67 per cent. aluminum as the result of the slow formation of the single compound AlSb. The space lattice of the compound AlSb, according to Owen and Preston,3 is face-centered cubic, the antimony atoms being intermeshed with an identical aluminum lattice. Very little, if any, work has been done on aluminum alloys containing small amounts of antimony.

Jan 1, 1930

By George B. Clark

THE " Munroe effect" of shaped explosive charges was discovered by Charles E. Munroe more than 50 years ago (in 1888), but it was not until World War II that it was put to any practical use. Both Allied and Axis armies used the principle effectively in bazooka projectiles, artillery projectiles and in fixed shaped charges. The first two were used primarily to combat tanks and other armor and the latter to assault pillboxes and other fixed concrete emplacements. Many engineers and others who saw the military application of the jet effect of shaped charges believed application would be possible in many industrial fields where blasting is used, such as mining and quarrying. Some work has already been done on the problem of making shaped charges applicable to mining operations. Experimentation conducted at the National Tunnel and Mines' was directed primarily along the lines of use of shaped charges for secondary blasting in connection with long-hole stoping methods. Experimentation initiated earlier and conducted by the author2 at the University of Utah on a more scientific basis was directed at revealing the basic principles of the functioning of shaped charges, as well as the feasibility of using them in mining operations after the principles of their operation had been clearly defined. It was found that: (I) a given design of charge required an optimum standoff to make it most effective, either in penetrating solid rock or steel (see Fig 3); (2) for a given design of charge there exists an optimum ratio of charge diameter to charge height above which the increase in effectiveness of the charge decreases rapidly (see Figs 4 and 5); (3) partial confinement has the effect of making charge performance much more consistent; (4) the higher power and higher velocity explosives tested are much more effective than relatively low-strength explosives; and (5) shaped charges may be adaptable to mining operations in secondary breakage and drilling blasting holes. Fig I is a diagrammatic sketch of the action of a shaped charge for two types of cavities, while Fig 2 shows the approximate manner in which the jets are believed to be formed when an explosive wave encounters the cavity, approaching it from the top. The experimentation already completed has laid the foundation for further research in the study of shaped charges. Standoff effects, effect of the strength of explosives and other features have been fairly well established. Such elements in the design of shaped charges as (I) geometry of cavity liners, (2) relative horizontal dimensions of explosive column, (3) effect of

Jan 1, 1947

By J. S. Ll. Leach, M. B. Bever

THE system copper-nickel exhibits complete solid and liquid miscibility1 The thermodynamic properties of such a system would not be expected to deviate greatly from ideality. Although the evidence is conflicting, anomalies in the composition dependence of various physical properties of solid copper-nickel alloys suggest that mixing may not be ideal.' From measurements of the Hall coefficient it has been concluded that clustering occurs in these alloys. ' Considerations involving the phase diagram of the ternary system copper-nickel-chromium have led Mei-jering3 to predict a positive heat of formation for solid copper-nickel alloys. An electrochemical investigation of the activity of nickel in copper-nickel alloys showed unexpectedly large positive deviations from ideality.4 wagner5 has proposed that if the entropy can be considered ideal, these measurements would yield the following equation for the heat of mixing at 700°C H" = 3380 x,vl (l-xVi) cal per g atom [I1 The heat of formation at 722°C of solid copper-nickel alloys of the equiatomic composition has been measured in a reaction calorimeter as 540 cal per g atom. This note reports calorimetric measurements of the heat effects on dissolution of some copper-nickel ndon: in tin. These measurements were preliminary to a larger investigation, which was later discontinued. From them the heats of formation of the alloys can be calculated, if certain assumptions are

Jan 1, 1960

By Paul A. Rittenhouse

First of all, I want to thank John Dunlap for asking me to this AIME meeting in Denver. I was first introduced to Denver and The Rocky Mountains more than ten years ago and immediately decided it was one of the most attractive spots in the world. I've come back many times since and still welcome any opportunity to return, even if it means I have to prepare and give a paper on potash. When John Dunlap gave me this assignment, he told me that the program would include papers on the geology of potash, papers on new discovered potash deposits and new mines and asked me to discuss potash from the commercial point of view. He also asked me to include a supply/demand outlook for potash. However, one thing he did not mention was "how far into the future he wanted me to look" and it seems to me the time element is a crucial factor to you who are both geologists and miners as well as to me. In your case, you have to look far enough into the future to give you time to explore, find, evaluate, develop, and bring into production a commercial deposit. My mining associates and friends don't agree on how long that takes but it's probably somewhere in the range of eight to fifteen years. But, they all agree on one thing and that is that the time required is continually getting longer. Now my time problem is just the opposite. It is "relatively" easy, and I stress relatively, to identify and evaluate the importance of the various factors that impact on both the supply of and demand for a commodity such as potash if the time period is today. It gets a little tough if one has to project into tomorrow or next week or next month. And when we start talking in terms of a year, five years or ten or fifteen years, things really get sticky and the old crystal ball becomes mighty cloudy. But we economists and forecasters are not known for our temerity so let me get on with the job at hand and take a look at the world potash supply/demand outlook.

Jan 1, 1978