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By R. Mohan Srivastava

"The goal of estimation is considered in the light of decision analysis. A simple example reveals the essential elements of decision-making in the face of uncertainty. A second example shows that these elements are also key features of many mining decisions. These two examples cause us to revive an old probabilistic notion that the goal of estimation should be to quantify what is unknown. The conditional probability distribution provides the complete statement of one's uncertainty. Once the conditional probability distribution has been established, one should retain as an estimate the value which minimizes some objective loss function. A third example shows how the ""best"" estimate depends on the chosen loss function. Current practice is almost exclusively based on the least squares method, which assumes a loss function which penalizes underestimation and overestimation equally. This is unfortunate not only because symmetry is an unrealistic assumption but also because mining offers a rare opportunity to state the loss function directly in terms of profitability. Both the theoretical framework and the practical tools exist to allow us to reconsider the conventional notion of the ""best"" estimate. IntroductionThis paper looks at estimation in the mining industry from the point-of-view of decision analysis. Virtually all decisions depend on estimates since few of the important parameters are ever known exactly. In this paper we will be referring mainly to the estimation of ore grades, though the approach discussed here is generally applicable to any decision in which relevant information is uncertain.In the first section we look at a very simple example of decision-making in the face of uncertainty. We will then tum to a mining example and see that the essential features of the simple example still pertain. From these two examples it will be clear that the decision analysis approach rests on two key concepts: the conditional probability distribution and the loss function. A third example demonstrates how different loss functions produce different ""best"" estimates from the same conditional probability distribution. In the final sections we willexamine the current practice of estimation in the mining industry. Though the tools for estimating the conditional probability distribution already exist, a change in the way we think about ""best"" estimates is needed. Very little attention is presently paid to the loss function even though it is readily available in many mining applications."

Jan 1, 1987

By H. M. Lawrence

"The land-pebble district, the larger of the two producing areas of Florida, is situated in Polk County and in the eastern part of Hillsborough County. About 80 per cent at the phosphate rock produced in the United States in recent years has been mined from this area. The phosphate ores, locally termed matrix. are beds of sands and clays containing the phosphate pebbles, considered to be Pliocene in age, derived by marine action from underlying Miocene phosphatic marls, and are covered by practically barren sands and clays that have been deposited more recently. Open-pit mining is practiced; hydraulic mining, which has been intensively developed in this district, is used exclusively for mining the matrix and, by some companies for removing the overburden, although drag-line excavators have become established and are proving economical for stripping operations. From the pits the matrix is pumped to adjacent washing plants for beneficiation. The product of the washers. after drying, enters the world markets as Florida pebble phosphate.In this district recovery of the phosphate pebbles by the washing plants has not been particularly effective in the past. The screening, designed to effect a seperation at about 20 mesh (0.033 inches), has not been well controlled. Washer rejects discarded to the waste dumps have contained appreciable amounts of material analyzing above the minimum commercial grade - 66 per cent B.P.L. (bone phosphate of lime). Such losses of commercial fractions should be considered avoidable, and have been discussed at length in a previous paper.3"

Jul 1, 1930

By J. R. Nettle

The purpose of these studies by the Federal Bureau of Mines was to determine the feasibility of refining low-grade hafnium by an inert-gas-shielded molten-salt electrorefining technique to produce a hafnium metal meeting reactor specifications. The techniques were adapted from those used success-fully for titanium electrorefining. Three electrolytes containing hafnium chlorides were developed from which deposits having a Brinell hardness of 170 or below were recovered. A KC1 + NaC1 + HfC14 electrolyte produced deposits in the hardness range of 140 to 165 Brinell. Deposits with a hardness range of from 132 to 152 Brinell were pro-duced from an electrolyte composed of KC1 + LiC1 + HfC14. A third electrolyte composed of NaC1 + K3HfC17 produced deposits with a hardness as low as 139 Brinell. In a fourth electrolyte, composed of NaC1 + K2HfF6, a measure of refining was accomplished, but under the test conditions no metal meeting specifications was recovered; none was softer than 174 Brinell. A number of metallic impurities were reduced in quantity by the electro-refining process, notably iron, which normally was reduced from 250 p.p.m. to less than 50 p.p.m. Magnesium generally was reduced from 680 p.p.m. to less than 80 p.p.m. Manganese content was also reduced by the electrorefining process. Sponge containing 90 p.p.m. Mn yielded deposits containing a maximum of 50 p.p.m.; some deposits contained only 10 p.p.m.

Jan 1, 1961

By D. Bienstock

To develop a rugged catalyst capable of withstanding hydraulic attrition resulting from the oil-circulation process for synthesizing liquid fuels, use of an iron catalyst containing an active coating surrounding an inert solid core of metal was investigated. This massive-iron catalyst in the form of steel shot and lathe turnings was activated by partial oxidation with steam at 600° C, impregnated with alkali, and reduced with hydrogen at 450° 6. The massive-iron catalysts were resistant to oxidation and spalling, and a 6-month catalyst life was attained. Higher operating temperatures could be employed than with fused iron oxide catalysts, resulting in greater gasoline yields. Because the lathe turnings pack with void volumes of 70 to 90 percent, it has become possible to employ a fixed bed without the danger of cementation that occurs with fused iron oxides.

Jan 1, 1963

By Eugene T. Sheridan

The Bureau of Mines annually canvasses the peat producers in the United states and publishes economic data on the peat industry, based upon reports submitted by producers. This publication lists all producers that reported commercial production to the Bureau for 1960 and presents data on individual plants. The companies named herein represent virtually all commercial producers, although a few small companies may not have been canvassed as the industry has many small operations that operate intermittently. Output of the various companies listed ranged from a few tons to more than 50,000 tons. Peat is included in the Bureau's annual surveys of the mineral industries because peat is classified as a mineral fuel. Although none is used for fuel in the United States, peat is a potential source of energy and ranks as one of our large mineral resources. The domestic peat industry sells peat, chiefly, for use as a soil amendment for general soil-improvement purposes. During the past decade the industry has expanded rapidly with operations increasing from 45 in 1947-494/ to 115 in 1960. Output during this period has more than tripled, increasing from 131,782 short tons to 470,889 short tons.

Jan 1, 1961

The whole of the iron ore required by the Broken Hill Proprietary Company Limited at the Newcastle Steel Works, and Australian Iron and Steel Limited, at Hoskins' Kembla Works, is drawn from the Iron Knob, Iron Monarch, Iron Prince and Iron Baron deposits situated in the northern part of Eyre's Peninsula, South Australia.The Iron Knob and Iron Monarch deposits are near the township of Iron Knob, approximately 42 miles W.S.W. of Port Augusta, whilst the Iron Prince and Iron Baron deposits are some 18 miles due south from Iron Knob, in another group of leases, the adjacent township being known as Iron Baron.The ore mined at Iron Knob, Iron Monarch, Iron Prince and Iron Baron is conveyed on the Company's 3ft. 6-in. gauge tramway to Whyalla, on the western side of Spencer's Gulf, approximately 45 miles south by west of Port Augusta whence it is shipped to Newcastle and Port Kembla.SHORT HISTORY.The establishment in South Australia of the lead smelting industry at Port Pirie, Dry Creek and Port Adelaide in the...

Jan 1, 1937

By D. Bitzios, A. Gracia, V. Meggiolaro, J. D. Baker

Synthesis report on a project carried out under the EC-funded BRITE-EURAM programme. A large deposit in Spain and several smaller ones in Greece and Sweden were investigated. Beneficiation testwork, including the development of an innovative wet circuit, was undertaken in Italy. The Spanish Ilustracion deposit lies occurs in thin, white layers throughout a zone 35-40 m thick and 1.5 km long, in laminated calcsilicates. Total resources of more than 100 000 000 t include proven open-pittable reserves of 4 500 000 t averaging 35% wollastonite. The beneficiated product is suitable for various applications, including ceramics. The Swedish and Greek marble-hosted skarn deposits include Albatross, with 2 500 000 t of reserves at 30% wollastonite, and Panorama, with reserves estimated at more than 700 000 t

Jun 21, 1905

By R. V. Ramani

"A computer simulation model of a dragline has beer developed for the study of alternative dragline deployment schemes for varying geological and mining conditions. In this paper, the mathematical aspects of the model, the input data and output results are discussed. An application of the model to a coal mine in eastern Kentucky is presented.IntroductionDraglines are very productive machines. To extend their operating ranges, they are operated in several modes such as advance benching, key cut, extended benching and pullback. Unfortunately, these variations result in low machine productivities. Appropriate methods to operate these machines must be developed on the basis of detailed analyses of dragline performance under varying geological and mining conditions. There are several standard engineering procedures for the selection of dragline, and design of a dragline pit (Ramani, Iroegbu and Manula, 1976). However, the complex interrelationship which exists among equipment, methods and natural conditions can be quantified only through orderly and systematic experiments.Computer simulation is well suited to studying these types of equipment selection and method layout problems. Several alternatives can be analyzed in a relatively short time by the modification of input variables. Also, the application of computer simulation models can significantly reduce the manpower and cost required for such analysis."

Jan 1, 1985

By Thomas J. Albin

U.S. Bureau of Mines research has found that maintenance of surface mining equipment is involved in slightly more than one-third (34.1 pct) of all surface mining accidents. Two groups of machines, haulage trucks and power shovels, accounted for over one-half of all surface mining mobile equipment maintenance accidents in 1978-84. Maintenance work-time histories for these machines were compared with accident records to identify the most hazardous-to-maintain systems within the machines. Recommendations to reduce the accident risk associated with maintenance of these hazardous systems are presented.

Jan 1, 1990

By Clayton M. Rumsey

The U.S. Bureau of Mines conducted a mineral resource survey of the Cinder Cones Wilderness Study Area (WSA) (CDCA-239), 10 miles east of Baker, CA, in 1983. The 44,299-acre WSA is underlain by Precambrian granite gneiss, Upper Cretaceous or lower Tertiary Teutonia quartz monzonite, and Quaternary basalt flows and alluvium. This mineral survey included an examination of two volcanic cinder mines, five lode prospects, two volcanic cinder prospects, and reconnaissance sampling in and near the WSA. The seven prospects are in the WSA; the two volcanic cinder mines are adjacent. No mines are in the WSA. In 1981, there were 61 placer and 3 lode mining claims in the WSA. Sample results from two prospects within the WSA contained significant gold and silver values; however, the mineralized rock is of limited extent and no resources were apparent. Alluvial samples taken throughout the WSA contained only traces of gold. Two volcanic cinder cones within the WSA contain an estimated 30 million tons of cinders. There are sufficient cinders outside the WSA to satisfy demand in the foreseeable future. Stone, sand, and gravel deposits are not resources because similar material is closer to markets. No evidence of energy minerals or geothermal resources was found.

Jan 1, 1985

By Hargraves A. J, Smith J. W

Experiments conducted at Tahmoor Colliery, Sydney Basin, have demonstrated the variability in chemical and isotopic composition of seam gases issuing from boreholes in the Bulli seam and desorbing from lump coal from the same source.From this work it appears that an immediate preferential release of methane accompanies the physical disturbance of the coal seam by penetration with development or drilling or by detachment. In addition, both early released methane and carbon dioxide are depleted in 13C relative to later desorbed gases, therefore the analyses of gas samples taken after such events may not reflect the true bulk composition of the undisturbed seam gas in situ. A method for overcoming this problem by taking gas samples at depth in the "steady state" is proposed.

Jan 1, 1987

The objective of this study was two-fold: 1. To perform a world literature search pertinent to the analysis, selection and design of hoisting systems and their components and to codify the search into a literature compendium. The search resulted in a technical data file of over 1500 hard copy items. The compendium index was also suitable for establishing a comprehensive computer-loaded data base on the subject. 2. To develop a comprehensive system of guidelines to cover salient aspects of analysis, selection and design of electrical, mechanical and structural components of a hoisting system with a view to establish parameters for maximum safety and efficiency of operation, installation and revision of the system. 3. (a) The system design of hydrostatic drives for mine hoists, usually of special nature, is considered along with oil hydraulic component selection suitable for the application; (b) The criteria for head frames of steel and/or concrete are developed with full consideration of all operating and environmental conditions.

Jan 1, 1988

By William C. Cooley

A technical and economic study was made of the feasibility of establishing an underground hydraulic coal mine in the Wilkeson-Carbonado coal field approximately 25 miles southeast of Tacoma, Washington. The deposit contains reserves of more than 200 million tons of generally high quality metallurgical coal. It is located in nine seams of minable thickness in a complex, folded and tectonically disturbed set of anticlines and synclines. Typical dip angles are up to 60°, with minable seam thicknesses of 6 to 17 feet. A mine plan was made for a 2 million TPY mine (clean) using two shafts to access the deposit to a depth of 2500 ft. The mining method uses monitor jets to break coal by sublevel retreat mining, fluming to a sump and pumping the minus 0.25 inch coal to the surface and to a preparation plant. The plus 0.25 inch coal is hoisted by skip. Cleaned met coal would be shipped by rail for export. A middlings product would be sold as thermal coal. Assuming a coal price of $48 per short ton (FOB the mine) for the met coal and $35 for the middlings, the return on investment is estimated at 20% after taxes. The many uncertainties about the geological conditions and the specific mine design parameters make the economic analysis and conclusions somewhat tentative. A second mine could also be developed in the eastern section of the reserves to produce 1 million TPY of clean coal and is expected to have similar economics. Recommendations are made for a Test Mine and a Pilot Mine leading to a production mine.

Jan 1, 1983

By Eric E. Unger

Results are presented of a census of the machines used in surface coal mines in the United States. The numbers of each machine type and model reported to be in use are tabulated for large and small mines in the Eastern, Central, and Western regions. Also tabulated are the average daily usage times of the major machine categories and the numbers of machines that have acoustical and other cabs. Projections of the total numbers of primary production machines are given. It is found that heavy tracked dozers and wheeled front end loaders constitute the most prevalent machine types, and that generally a very few models of machines made by one or two manufacturers constitute a major fraction of the population in each machine category. About 70 percent of all machines are reported to have some kind of cab, and about half of these are reported to be acoustical gabs; it is noted that acoustical cabs generally came into significant use since about the early 1970's. It is observed that the percentage-wise mixes of equipment types used in the various categories of mines differ significantly for only a few types of machines, notably for heavy dozers and loaders, and for haulers, highway trucks, and internal-combustion engine-powered shovels and draglines.

Jan 1, 1977

By J. C. Fowler

The field testing of the Seismic Mine Monitor System is described. This system consists of nine geophones buried about 40 feet deep over a ten-square-mile area, the amplifiers and electronics needed to get the signals to the mine office, and a central processor unit to detect and locate explosions and large roof falls. Since the problems associated with the original installation were solved, this system has worked for 2 1/2 months. The system has detected roof falls in the pillar areas and has located blasts as small as 114 pound of dynamite. The location accuracy has, in general, been within 250 feet. The system is now being used to gather long-term data on the seismic activity of the mine.

Jan 1, 1974

By Ralph D. Gift

This report describes a program of research to evaluate methanometry in coal mines. The program commenced by conducting an extensive state-of-the-art survey. Details of the survey are presented which includes a rating of various types of instruments that can be used to detect and record methane gas. Laboratory test data, on mine instruments tested are presented together with results from a computerized statistical analysts.

Jan 1, 1972

By R. V. Ramani

This report is volume 3 of an eleven-volume final report for a Grant completed by The Pennsylvania State University for the Bureau of Mines to develop a dynamic general purpose computer simulation model for underground coal mining. The simulator developed under the Grant has a wide range of possible applications in the design and evaluation of underground coal mining systems from the standpoints of health and safety, productivity, and mine environment. The Master Design Simulator consists of nine free-standing function-oriented subsystem models linked together into an integrated, comprehensive model of an entire mining system. The subsystems comprising the Master Design Simulator include geology and reserves, methane generation, roof support, subsidence, production, rail haulage, cost, water generation,' and ventilation. This volume of the final report describes the Methane Generator subsystem of the Master Design Simulator. This subsystem is used to determine methane emission rates into the mine environment. These flow rates are then used by the simulator in planning primary and secondary ventilation systems, planning a methane drainage system, and analyzing complex ventilation networks. Both steady state and unsteady state gas flows are included, and have been modeled as second order nonlinear partial differential equations. Finite difference equations are used to obtain numerical solutions to the models using a central differencing scheme. An application of the model is presented. The appendices include derivation of the gas flow equations used in the model as well as a users manual for the computer program.

Jan 1, 1974

Illumination hardware developed in conjunction with previous Contracts H024202l, H0242049, and H0242023 had not been adequately tested in actual underground work situations. The purpose of this contract was to install and monitor this equipment on mining machines and in actual working places of coal mines to gain experience with the use of the lamps and support equipment in the abusive and critical environments for which they were intended. The equipment that was to be tested consisted of the following: a. Lamps -A variety of sizes of permissible fluorescent lamps which operate from 12 volts DC power. These include the following sizes: Model 8, (9 watts) 2" diameter; Model 15/2 (14 watts) 2" diameter; Model 15/3 (21 watts) 3" diameter; Model 20 (25 watts) 3" diameter; Model 30, (28 watts) 3" diameter; and Model 40, (39 watts) 311 diameter. Representative photographs of these lamps are shown in Figure 1-1 and 1-2.

Jan 1, 1976

By L. K. Weaver

The objective of this study is twofold, The first is to present the composition of the offshore petroleum industry in terms of lease bonuses and the value of hydrocarbons produced from Federal offshore tracts. The second is to present costs of producing petroleum (oil and condensate) in the Gulf of Mexico with a financial analysis of an offshore operation. To prepare a financial analysis of an offshore operation, a model was derived to show the costs necessary to explore, acquire, develop, produce, and abandon a 5,000-acre block and the estimated income from the sale of the hydrocarbons produced. To establish cost and income guidelines for the model, a group of seven oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico ranging from 7 to 75 miles from shore and in water 20 to 130 feet deep was selected for study. A net profit or loss statement was prepared for each field and a discounted cash flow rate of return was calculated. Discounted cash flow rates of return for the seven fields range from 1.1 to 19.5 percent. Under the two specified conditions set up for the model (a 20-year and a 30-year oil depletion model), the rates of return are 17.2 and 13.7 percent, respectively. To January 1, 1959, the top four operators in the Federal offshore areas had paid approximately 40 percent of the amount spent on all lease bonuses and produced about 56 percent of the total hydrocarbons.

Jan 1, 1972

By Meliton M. Garcia

The volume of gases produced in major and trace amounts following the detonation of two water gel and two emulsion explosives in a mine were determined. The volume .of the major gases (CO, CO2, NO, and NO2) was measured immediately following detonation, during the mucking operation, and following the removal of the muck. Tests to identify and quantify the gases produced in trace amounts were performed following the detonation only. The volume of each major gas per pound of explosive (ft /lb) ;ranged as follows: CO, 0.0424-0.3231; CO , 0.6819-1.5632; NO, 0.0129-0.1320; and NO2, 0.0019-0.1111.. An approximate average of 95% of the gases produced was found in the test chamber immediately following the detonation, while less that 2% was found in the chamber following removal of the muck. Benzene was the most significant compound found to occur in trace amounts. Scaling tests performed with a water gel and an emulsion explosive suggest that the volume of the gases per unit mass of explosive detonated diminishes as the amount of explosive per blast increases.

Jan 1, 1986