Search Documents

By Greg Wieland

Deep sewer tunnels are required to meet future growth demands of the City of Austin?s down-town redevelopment. The tunnel is 18,000 ft long and varies in finished diameter from 54 inches to 96 inches. The tunnel crosses under Austin?s Town Lake three times and there are four main work shaft sites. Geology, groundwater, foundations, downtown redevelopment, and an active, healthy community put significant constraints on the design. This paper discusses a major underground project for downtown Austin and discusses the risk considerations and the opportunities the design team took toward optimizing the project design for the construction phase.

Jan 1, 2008

By John Meuth, Brandon Fryman, P. E. Hoffman, Joshua Ph. D., P. E. Calnan, Josh Ph. D.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be specifically tailored for use by the commercial explosives industry to calculate risk to employees and the public from commercial explosives facilities and operations. This methodology has several advantages over the American Table of Distances (ATD) which is solely a Quantity Distance (Q/D) analysis. While the ATD has remained essentially the same for 100 years, the safety of commercial explosives in storage has increased immensely. However, the concepts behind QRA calculations are not as intuitive and even at the end of the calculations the values of risk must be compared to something. A few regimes for assessing an acceptable level of risk are discussed in this paper. Risk levels for various United States Federal entities and international agencies are highlighted and suggestions for acceptable risk criteria for individuals and groups are provided. Referencing risk levels from normal daily activities is also done in this paper to make relative the accepted risk criteria. This paper presents some relevant individual risks for everyday activities and some scenarios for group risk for comparison. Individual risk is a straightforward concept however group risk is more complicated. This paper aims to clarify these concepts and provide means to communicate them to the public.

Jan 1, 2019

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

By Limao Zhang

This paper presents a BIM-based Risk Identification Expert System (B-RIES) for metro construction, composed of three main built-in subsystems: BIM extraction, knowledge base management, and risk identification subsystems. The engineering parameter information related to risk factors is extracted from the BIM of a specific project where the IFC standard plays a bridge role between the BIM data and metro construction safety risks. An integrated knowledge base, consisting of fact base, rule base and case base, is established to systematize the fragmented explicit and tacit knowledge. A hybrid inference approach, with case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning included, is developed to improve the flexibility and comprehensiveness of the system reasoning capacity. During the safety risk identification process, B-RIES is able to improve the inefficiencies in engineering information extraction, reduce the dependence on domain experts, and facilitate knowledge sharing and communication among dispersed clients and domain experts. A typical safety hazard identification in the Mingdu station, located in the Wuhan Metro Line Two, is presented in a case study. The results demonstrate the feasibility of B-RIES, and its application potential. B-RIES can be used as a decision support tool to provide guidelines for safety management in metro construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment.

Aug 1, 2013

By H. Simonsen

Risk assessment consists of a search for the answers to: ?What can happen? ?How likely it is that it can happen? ?What are the consequences if it does happen? Perhaps the most important aim of risk analysis is to predict the likelihood that a planned profit will be achieved over a given period of time. A typical risk model employed for this purpose includes a stochastic connection between the dependent variable of an expression that describes a process and independent variables represented as random quantities. The output will be a probabilistic distribution. The uncertainties in a planned mining operation include: ?Commodity market characteristics, particularly price ?Ore reserves and mineralogical composition ?Mining method ?Process performance ?Capital and operating costs ?Schedule duration ?Economic environment effects. The processes employed in the probabilistic estimation of a project?s outcome include both Monte Carlo simulations and simulations where variable correlation is considered important. The risk model, once developed and tested, provides a framework for a rational approach to risk analysis and the testing of alternatives.

Jan 1, 1999

Paper presented at the UK minerals industry conference and published in: Minerals extraction towards the millennium. UK minerals industry conference, 3-5 April 1995, University of Leeds. London: Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, 1995. The various types of risks that arise in minerals industry projects are usually financial, technical, or environmental, and the key to valid risk analysis is complete integration of all risks, both within and between categories. Geographical information systems (GIS) and geostatistical simulation methods can provide a means of integrating data and conducting realistic risk analyses. Risk can be quantified but there are limitations to numerical approaches to risk assessment. Realistic quantification requires adequate models of the processes that give rise to risk. Risk perception must also be taken into account when conducting risk assessment and reporting the results, especially in public forums. The modelling and visualisation capabilities of a combined GIS/simulation system can provide the means of dealing with perception in risk analysis

Jun 19, 1905

By A. M. Clegg

In general, overall experience has shown that the approach to the appointment of a project manager is given much attention, but little specific attention is given first to the risk associated with the project conceptual design and its overall executability within either the new legislative framework or the sustainability of the outcome. The risk in project executability and sustainability within the ?new age? legislative framework of the Mining Charter, etc, is itself however, of far greater importance. The degree of importance being defined by the intended projects impact on the business going forward. This is particularly the case where the intention of the implementation is effectively to turn around or even enhance a loss-making strategic investment like a mine or process plant operation in an ?old-order rights? or Brownfield?s operation. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of a ?pre-project project? (PPP) to mitigate the risk in the ?new age?, with specific reference to operational due diligence (ODD) and project conceptual design.

Jan 1, 2005

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open-pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau while the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-mak-ing range is significantly reduced and the process for select-ing the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable and defensible. The technique outlined in this paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Jun 1, 2024

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau whilst the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-making range is significantly reduced, and the process for selecting the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable, and defensible. This paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Feb 21, 2024

By W. Abdellah

The purpose of this paper is to establish a qualitative method to estimate the risk level (e.g. rating and ranking) resulting from mining activity. Risk is the product of two factors: probability of failure and cost of consequences. A resultant assessment scale matrix is then used to assign a risk index value which is directly proportional to the potential for excavation instability. A case study, the No. 1 Shear East orebody at Vale?s Garson Mine in Sudbury, Ontario will be examined. A three-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference model (FLAC 3D) is presented for a mine development intersection situated 1.5 km below ground surface. The developed assessment scale matrix is used to estimate risk index for intersection (2981) located on 5000 level. The results are presented and categorized with respect to risk-index value, probability of instability, cost of consequence, and mining stage.

Jan 1, 2014

By Tsuyoshi Adachi

Photovoltaic (PV) system is especially taken notice as one of important renewable energy resources, because PV has potential to provide a certain amount of energy supply as well as without greenhouse gases emission. Considering recent rapid increasing demand for PV system, more expansion of PV system is expected in the future. However, some precious metals and minor metals such as silver, indium and others are used as component materials of solar cell in PV system. Even if energy supply would become renewable, strict limitation of these metals still remain because amount of natural resources and recycling of metals has restrictions intrinsically. The aim of this study is to reveal the possibility of materials supply restrictions for Photovoltaic system quantitatively and to propose several measurements to assess supply risks for materials. Especially, silver supply potential which is used as wire line in PV system as well as PV demand forecast to estimate material use in the future are focused on. We divide underlying supply risk into 5 measurements and analyze them by time series, i.e. price volatility, resource potential, recycling ratio, production type and supply concentration are investigated. Comparing these factors of silver with other metals, the potential of silver supply for PV is presented. In addition to it, we propose another method to quantify country risk applied an insurance pricing model in finance pricing theory and combine it with the supply concentration measurement. As a result, supply risk of silver will increase gradually in the near future because of its resource constraints and supply-demand balances although silver market is sufficiency competitive one. From the country risk analysis, Peru is not only a significant supply country but also has the highest country risk. Some higher risk countries will increase the level of supply risk even if the concentration ratio of supply indicates moderate level.

Aug 1, 2013

By Willem Le Roux

The common law requires an employer to take reasonable steps for the safety of employees. In general, the duty of care means that the employer, acting personally or through its employees or agents, must take reasonable care for the safety of its employees (Van Deventer v Workmen?s Compensation Commissioner; 1962 (4) SA 28 T; Oosthuizen v Homegas (Pty) Ltd 1992 (3) SA 463 T).The duty of care includes the provision of safe premises, safe machinery and tools and a safe system of work. The obligation is not an absolute one, but is restricted by the concept of reasonableness. The common law duty may, in certain cases, include the assessment of hazards and risks. 2 International law Great emphasis has been placed in the Western world on the prevention of occupational diseases and injuries. Detailed statutes and regulations govern specific industries in many countries. See, e.g. the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health Regulations of the United Kingdom and various regulations applicable to the use of asbestos and lead, fire protection, mines and quarries, petroleum, etc. Risk management is an important part of managing health and safety. In the United Kingdom, the Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations, 1999, require every employer to make a ?suitable and sufficient assessment of the risks to health and safety of his employees to which they are exposed whilst they are at work?. The particularity of the assessment is determined by the risk in question.

Jan 1, 2011

Two examples of risk assessment and risk management in action are discussed. The first is in a management context in relation to Kingsgate Consolidated LtdÆs Chatree operation in Thailand. Kingsgate has conducted an over-riding risk management program to assess and manage risk across its complete business from the Sydney and Bangkok offices through to the Chatree Mine and the companyÆs exploration group. This example addresses how Kingsgate has applied risk management, particularly to the process operation, and the benefits that have been gained. The second is in an operational context in relation to Minara Resources LtdÆs Murrin Murrin operation in Western Australia. The subject is the methodology and outcomes of a risk assessment across the Murrin Murrin operation specifically to identify and assess risks with potential impacts from $1 M to $7 M. This section of the paper then shows how the outcomes of the risk assessment were integrated into MinaraÆs strategic plan to debottleneck the plant and increase nickel production.

Jan 1, 2004

"A long-term mine production schedule optimization based on stochastic integer programming is presented that manages the risk due to geological variability and uncertainty while jointly considering mine profitability, truck fleet requirements and waste management. The evolution of the pit is controlled so that space within the mined-out pit is continuously provided to allow for tailings and waste rock to be replaced, thus minimizing the project’s environmental footprint. The method is applied at a taconite iron ore deposit and has a project net present value that is 16.9 percent higher than that of a conventional schedule and has a higher chance of meeting production forecasts. The stochastic schedule reduces equipment requirements by delaying waste mining and by mining selectively in order to meet plant ore feed requirements without stockpiling material, resulting in 23.7 and 26.2 percent lower mining capital and operating costs, respectively. IntroductionThe LabMag iron ore deposit is part of the Millennium Iron Range, a 210-km (130-mile) belt of taconite in northern Quebec and Labrador, Canada. LabMag has significant economic potential. It contains more than 3.3 Gt (3.6 billion st) of proven reserves at an average total iron content of 29.8 percent and is very low in impurities. However, on a project basis of 23 Mt/a (25 million stpy) of product, the required capital expenditure is estimated at more than $5 billion (SNC-Lavalin, 2014), which necessitates careful evaluation of all sources of risk. Resource estimation is one of the main sources of risk in a mining project as knowledge of the orebody is primarily based on drilling, which is often sparse because it is expensive. If the expected ore tonnages and qualities are not obtained when mining, the project cash flows are directly affected. The expected quantities and qualities of ore and waste are defined by the mine production schedule, which specifies the sequence of extraction and is dependent on the resource estimation. The goal of mine production scheduling is thus to maximize the expected profit, while also meeting all production targets and constraints, by creating an extraction schedule that is robust in the face of geological risk and has the highest chance possible of actually being realized."

Jan 10, 2017

By T Ireland, S Eratne, W Newns, P Spies

The approach to risk management during the procurement of major projects often has a significant outcome on the ultimate delivery of a project. The NZ$1.4 B Waterview Connection project is the largest and most complex project yet undertaken by the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) and the procurement process for an alliance contract was refined to provide compliance with the International Tunnel Insurance Group (ITIG) Code of Practice for Risk Management of Tunnel Works (TCoP). The principle of shared risk within an alliance incentivises a common understanding of project risks prior to finalising the alliance agreement and therefore enables superior risk management through design, construction and beyond. Risk management practices need to be instigated well in advance of commercial phases, so that commercial competition does not lead to a significant elevation of project risk. In particular the practice of gaining commercial advantage by taking on a potentially unmanageable level of risk is one of the outcomes to be avoided by the TCoP.During the procurement phase the NZTA placed high value on design and construction mitigation measures proposed in order to address ground risks, as is appropriate for a major tunnel project. In order to achieve alignment on the level of geotechnical risks an Alliance Geotechnical Baseline Report (AGBR) process was developed.This paper describes the measures taken during the procurement process to achieve certainty with respect to outcomes and minimise project risks whilst also achieving value for money. Refinements to the procurement process to ensure compliance with the TCoP prepared by the International Tunnel Insurance Group (ITIG) are described along with the AGBR process applied as part of a suite of measures to achieve a successful procurement outcome.CITATION:Ireland, T, Spies, P, Eratne, S and Newns, W, 2014. Risk management and use of a geotechnical baseline report for a competitive alliance procurement?process, in Proceedings 15th Australasian Tunnelling Conference 2014 , pp 553–562 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 17, 2014

By F. Musuka, D. Jenkins, A. Keyes

BHP Olympic Dam operates a Direct-to-Blister copper flash smelting Furnace (DBF) and an Electric Slag Cleaning Furnace (ESCF). Tapping blister copper from these furnaces via tapholes is a routine task carried out by trained personnel. Blister tapping is a high-risk activity with personnel operating in close proximity to molten metal. BHP’s risk management framework has identified taphole integrity as key to managing the potential for loss of molten metal containment and molten metal – water steam explosion, both of which have the potential to cause multiple fatalities. As part of the focus on managing this risk, since 2017, a dedicated Taphole Development Team has been embedded in the operation to run an accelerated improvement program focused on safely and sustainably embedding an improved taphole design with greater integrity. The program of works includes selecting and testing of new materials as well as improving operating discipline by collaborating with tapping personnel to convert their knowledge into codified condition monitoring and operating strategies. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used to derive critical risk controls, and to develop live-alerts to infer excessive refractory insert wear. To date, improving DBF blister taphole mudgun clay has led to more consistent drilling depths and subsequently reduced oxygen lancing requirements, resulting in improvements in taphole insert service life. On the ESCF, insert performance testing and development of a new taphole condition monitoring strategy, is being used to increase taphole insert tonnages to more sustainable levels. Operations personnel have been closely involved in different phases of the change management, this has led to standardization of tapping practices for both furnaces, and improved ownership of the proposed changes. The paper discusses the maturity in taphole integrity risk management as a result of recent and ongoing developments. It then provides an overview of future taphole developments proposed at Olympic Dam. INTRODUCTION Tapping operations at Olympic Dam and learning from significant events The Direct-to-Blister furnace (DBF) at Olympic Dam was built with a conventional design blister taphole, which was designed for manual oxygen lancing and clay stopper bar plugging tapping operations (Campbell, 2005). Manual tapping is a high-risk activity, where personnel work in close proximity to molten metal, and molten metal personal protective clothing and equipment must be used. Opening tapholes by oxygen lancing is a skilled activity and unintentional damage to the taphole inserts can occur. Since 2008, a Mudgun and Drill unit has been developed and trialled and is now in use on the DBF blister tapholes, to remove personnel from the line of fire when opening and closing tapholes. This has the additional benefit of reducing lancing damage to taphole inserts. A new taphole design labelled the Modular Blister Taphole (MBTH) was developed at Olympic Dam for the Mudgun and Drill operation. The intent of the design was for mudgun clay to fill the entire tapping channel when plugging after a tap. The drill would then drill through this clay plug to open the taphole.

Jan 1, 2019

By Sandy Worden

Coal mining companies in Australia are managing the high-consequence risks across their operations more effectively by using an interactive online risk management system known as Riskgate Developed by the Minerals Industry Safety and Health Centre (MISHC) at the University of Queensland, Australia, Riskgate contains detailed information about 11 high-consequence risk areas (called topics in the system) for opencut and underground coal mines (Table 1). The existing topics are: fires; strata control for underground mining; ground control for opencut mining; tires; isolation; collisions; explosions and explosives; manual tasks; and trips, slips and falls. Every Riskgate topic is focused on coal industry activities (mining, processing, transport and storage). The scope includes mine sites, lease areas and mine infrastructure (mobile, fixed plant, field equipment, buildings, road and rail transport), and all aspects of the mine life cycle from design through to decommissioning. The topics uniformly recognize that a loss of control can result in injury or fatality, equipment damage, production loss, reputation loss and environmental damage. However, the priority focus for Riskgate is the safety of mine personnel.

Jul 1, 2013

By Dave Paul

Dam rehabilitation involves a range of design, construction, and operation risks, some of which are not encountered in new dam construction. These risks can have significant impact on project schedule and project budget. Owners, engineers, and contractors need to understand these risks. Existing dams typically were designed in an era of design and construction standards that have been upgraded and changed. Modern standards will impact the construction approach taken and involve understanding the earlier standards. Knowledge of historical standards/practices as well as current design standards and construction methods is valuable for developing and designing rehabilitation components. Construction records and as-built drawings are valuable when they are available. Rehabilitation projects often consist of older projects where as-built documents or construction records are not available. Where these records exist, many (most) times, they do not fully reflect the current conditions within the dam and appurtenant works. leading experienced practitioners to “expect surprises” both during investigation of the existing facility, as well as during construction. “Surprises” should be expected even when historical records of investigations, design and construction are available. Unknowns, be they known unknowns or unknown unknowns, can be planned for by developing an approach for the design and construction process to identify potential issues/problems, or at least alert the designer and contractor of potential issues. A Risk-Based approach applied for the entire life of the rehabilitation project can be used to alert the parties of potential “surprises” and provide direction for mitigating issues as they arise. This type of approach is particularly effective when the process includes senior practitioners with decades of design and construction experience in all aspects of dams. Minimizing impacts created by “surprises”, particularly during construction, can result in an improved project meeting budget and schedule goals and design standards. This paper identifies and categorizes risk types salient to dam construction, reviews the process of risk identification and analysis, discusses guidelines for risk allocation, reviews strategies to mitigate risks, presents several case studies where risk mitigation strategies were employed successfully (or unsuccessfully), and presents lessons learned. The paper concludes with a summary and recommendations for best practices for Project Risk Management and mitigation that can be used by: Owners; Design Engineers; and Construction Managers, in planning, design, pre-construction and construction phases of dam related projects.

By R J. Everett

The mining industry is beginning to adopt quality systems based on the requirements of International Standards for quality assurance, such as the ISO 9000 series. Indications from similar industries are that considerable benefits are to be had from their adoption. This paper describes the use of the International Standard ISO 9001 for quality assurance within BUKA Minerals Limited. This provided guidance for the development of a clear statement providing agreement on the processes to be followed and the outputs required when dealing with outside service providers. Discussion focuses on the interaction with BUKAÆs consultants and contractors during the specification stage, resulting from the application of quality assurance techniques. Risk analysis was used to identify and manage the risks associated with the companyÆs contract for geotechnical and mine design services and the tender for a mine development program of work during the feasibility stage of the project. Setting acceptance controls for the deliverables from such contracts is traditionally fraught with difficulty. BUKA used Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for exposing underlying risks that were not effectively being countered. The briefs were reviewed and additional controls were developed to manage the risk. These controls have provided clearer instructions to the consultants and contractors, indicated audit points for the company and defined the deliverables. There exists within the company, and among its outside service providers, a clearer understanding of what is to be achieved and how it will be measured. The process has imparted considerable confidence to both parties on how the work will proceed and what outputs are to be provided. Some discussion is provided on how quality principles are being applied throughout industry and commerce, generally, and how they may apply to the mining industry. The paper argues that, far from being an appendix to the tendering process, Risk Management should be a mandatory step integrated into the definitions of the work.

Jan 1, 1998

By A Querzoli, B Williams

In late 2014 the Flinders Power Management Team was executing business improvement plans to ensure continued electricity generation until 2028 and beyond. Six months later, in June 2015, the Board announced the closure of the Flinders Power South Australian business, including the Leigh Creek Coal Mine, the Northern and Playford Power Stations located at Port Augusta and the 250km railway line. The announcement was preceded by a brief period of internal planning. A date was soon set for ceasing coal mining operations, being November 2015. The mine is unique in many ways. Located approximately 550km north of Adelaide the site has over 100 years of history and was formerly operated by the South Australian Government. Privatisation in 2000 saw the mine continue operation under Perpetual Leases from the South Australian Government. The leases included exemptions from multiple sections of the Mining Act 1971, obliging primary regulation under the Mines and Works Inspection Act 1920. The coal, being a low rank sub-bituminous brown coal, is prone to self-heating and spontaneous combustion. The mine and company town Leigh Creek were the economic and cultural heartbeat of the community. Facilities at the mine were shared by the community and vice versa. While many mines across Australia and the world enter periods of care and maintenance, few have been actively closed to the point of relinquishment (Bennett and Lacy, 2016). A swift decision to close, followed by a short mining operations shutdown period, presented significant technical and regulatory challenges for both the mine operator and for Regulators. The subsequent joint risk mapping process employed by Flinders Power and South Australian Mining Regulators was a unique real-world example of collaborative mine closure planning and execution. Lessons learnt are valuable for all mines, production facilities and for Regulators, even for those who may wrongly assume that closure is many years away. CITATION:Williams, B and Querzoli, A, 2018. Risk management for minesite closure planning and execution – start now! Lessons from the closure of the Leigh Creek Coalfield, South Australia, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2018, pp 68–72 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 25, 2018