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By Peter Fischer, Heinz-Jiirgen Kateloe, Anton Sroka, Axel Preusse

"Since mining in Germany has a long history, there are still many locations where the surface fracture problem has to be solved. Shallow mine workings from an earlier era can affect the surface in a discontinuous way. In many cases, due to light overburden load, those mine rooms did not collapse and a downfall can suddenly happen for many reasons, e.g., in connection with a changed load entry into the subsurface or by additional influence of water. This results in ground movements, which in extreme cases, appear as surface fractures.Depending on the use of the surface, ground movements caused in such a way constitute an endangerment by law. Particularly, within the southern Ruhr district, surface fracture and subsidence endangered ranges are determined on the basis of an empirical method that resulted from a systematic evaluation of surface fractures and rock disclosures. This method indicates maximum ranges within which impacts from abandoned shallow mine workings must be assumed.With a special emphasis on a risk management approach, RWTH Aachen University adapted the model of stochastic media to the conditions of abandoned shallow mining to compute and illustrate potential ground movements due to the collapse of shallow mine workings. Further investigations were concerned with the analysis of characteristic parameters which can serve for the assessment of the surface fracture probability in a comparative view of different cases. In recent years, more than 50 surface fractures in the southern Ruhr district were analyzed in order to develop a risk assessment of surface fracture endangered ranges over shallow mine workings. The results that have been obtained so far are described in this paper.INTRODUCTIONAbandoned underground mine workings of shallow depth can pose a threat to the surface. Due to small overburden rock loads, shallow excavations often remain intact for decades after the operations have ceased and may collapse abruptly (Braemer et al., 2005; Hollmann and Nuerenberg, 1972; Preusse et al., 2007). Several approaches for prognosis of surface fracture resulting from 97 subsurface collapse deal with this topic (Loebel and Sroka, 2001; Tajdus and Sroka, 2009)."

Jan 1, 2010

By R. K. Dunham, D. J. Reddish, X. L. Yao

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 10pp., 10 refs. The integrated approach combines a powerful ground movement prediction program with a knowledge-based expert system. ESDAS (Expert Structural Damage Assessment System) was developed to evaluate mining subsidence damage in the form of risk and in terms of the three vital contributing components (mining factors, site factors and structural factors). Using a certainty factor risk assessment technique, the system can be used to predict the likely damage to a particular structure subjected to mining subsidence. A previously developed powerful ground movement prediction program, SWIFT (Subsidence With Influence Function Techniques), has been combined with the expert system to allow the mining factor to be more accurately determined in a broader range of mining layout. Since SWIFT can be calibrated to any particular coal field using local subsidence data, it is believed that the integrated system could be used in any coal field worldwide for the assessment and control of mining subsidence damage risks

Dec 1, 1995

By R. Strydom, J. H. Selby, J. Slabbert, W. Enslin

Zircon is a naturally occurring silicate of zirconium, which is used in large quantities (~1 million tonnes per annum) for its refractory properties and its extreme chemical inertness. All zircons contain uranium and thorium bound into the crystal lattice, generally at levels up to 500 ppm of uranium plus thorium. This paper focuses on one aspect of the zircon industry—the ability to safely transport large quantities of zircon sand. Currently zircon is not classified as a radioactive material for transport purposes. However, this is because of a factor used in the exemption clauses of the IAEA code on safe transport of radioactive materials. The objective of this study was to determine the validity of this factor, and was submitted as part of an IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP). The study is based primarily on measured rather than modelled data and covers the transport of large quantities of zircon from producers in South Africa to customers in Europe. Both occupational exposure of workers and exposure of members of the public have been considered. The transport routes studied cover rail, road, ocean-going ship and inland barge transport of unpackaged bulk products. The study showed that the most exposed member of the public would receive 10µSv/annum,while the most exposed worker would receive 144µSv/annum of exposure. It is concluded that these levels are well below all regulatory limits for such activities involving naturally occurring materials. The study also showed that normal operational exposures are higher than those in accident scenarios, a feature which does not occur with higher activity materials. It is further concluded that the study validates the use of the factor of 10 in TS-R-1, as applied to zircon sand. Additionally it is also concluded that the exemption currently applied to the transportation of bulk zircon sand is valid.

Jan 1, 2003

By Joshua Hoffman, Rob Farnfield, Catherine Johnson, Braden Lusk, Morgan Lane

IMESAFR (IME Safety Analysis for Risk) is a quantitative risk assessment software tool developed by the Institute of Makers of Explosives (IME) and A-P-T Research, Inc. It is used for managing risk in the commercial explosives industry, the newest version of the software was completed in 2012. This paper discusses the use of this software package in conjunction with data collected for a television series on the reenactment of the ‘London Blitz’, a 57-day bombing of the City of London in 1940. In this reenactment, purpose built structures using period design and materials were constructed at a test facility in the North of England. Five devices ranging in size from 20 kg (44 lb) to 1100 kg (2400 lb) were detonated at varying distances from the structures; each blast was monitored by EPC-UK and the resulting structural damage was analyzed. Data recorded from the blasts included high-speed videos, photographs before and after each event and air overpressure readings. The same data was inputted into the IMESAFR software package to assess the risk imposed on the residents of London during this time. The appropriateness of this tool for evaluating structures built using historical practices is discussed. Data from the full scale tests is compared to effects predicted by IMESAFR. Further analysis of the risk recommendations produced by IMESAFR is compared to the actual damage assessed during the large scale tests.

Jan 1, 2014

By A Reid, A W. Musk, O Jones

In this paper, the authors attempt to bridge the gap that currently exists between the duty-of-care responsibilities of underground mining industry personnel, and the multifaceted health challenges facing mineworkers in Western Australia’s metal mines where diesel-powered mobile equipment predominate. In addressing this issue, the complexities of the nature and extent of the challenges are discussed along with the current inadequacy of existing regulatory metrics. Support is given to the need for well-organised in-mine baseline studies to clearly define the distribution and aging characteristics of the toxic and carcinogenic pollutants within the mine ventilation system, with special emphasis given to exploring the validity of biomonitoring systems. The paper concludes with the proposal that a template risk assessment data sheet be prepared for the industry to provide mining personnel with a sound basic knowledge of the health risks involved and the control measures and precautions available for minimising and/or eliminating the hazard.CITATION:Jones, O, Musk, A W, Reid, A and Davis, C, 2017. Risk assessment tool for mines using diesel-powered mobile equipment, in Proceedings 13th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference 2017, pp 151–154 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Oct 16, 2017

By Steve Kral

The list of environmental issues facing industry in general, and the mining industry in particular, has placed greater emphasis on the concept of risk assessment and risk management. In informal terms, risk can be defined as the chance of injury, loss or damage. More formally, it is defined as the probability of an occurrence and its consequences. In simple terms, risk assessment involves three questions: What can go wrong? How probable is it to go wrong? If it goes wrong, what are the consequences? Experts on the subject of risk assess¬ment and management met in St. Louis, MO in October 1992 to discuss the extensive and innovative technology that has been developed in this arena. Each agreed that a consistent framework can be used to approach risk assessment/ management considerations in siting and design alternatives, as well as when considering financial aspects of mine development. And the environmental planning process for mines, as well as planning for operation through closures, will rely more heavily on risk assessment and management techniques. Risk assessment is a tool to assist engineers, scientists and managers make better, defensible operational decisions. A realistic and probabilistic risk analysis, coupled with a sound financial model, can combine a large set of alternatives and criteria to arrive at a defensible decision. Organizers of this regional SME conference believe that mining professionals should become fully conversant with risk assessment techniques and approaches because this arena provides opportunities to develop more rational decision-making techniques. Current health risk assessments rely heavily on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approaches. Several speakers and papers show how this approach has been applied to a variety of topics. Two major advantages come forward when applying risk assessment techniques to environmental clean-up options for contaminated sites. They are the selection of practical options and cost-effective alternatives. A probabilistic risk assessment provides results that can be directly related to clean-up costs. It has been shown that small reductions in risk are obtained for large increases in cost after a certain threshold value is reached. A preferred, practical clean-up alternative that provides permanent solutions can be selected based on a probabilistic assessment. Here are summaries of some of the papers presented at the meeting.

Jan 1, 1993

By P. J. Foster

A common theme running through recently introduced mining health and safety legislation in many parts of the world is risk assessment. Most recently, risk assessment legislation has been introduced across the mining industry of South Africa and the view that the introduction of risk assessment based legislation provides an ideal opportunity to improve on past health and safety performance is presented. Risk assessment techniques range from highly complex safety system techniques that are used in high technology process industries, to subjective techniques based on simple judgements that are finding use in many other industries. The objective of this paper is to shed some light on risk assessment, not by detailing the risk assessment process but by identifying the crucial elements that need to be considered if risk assessments are to be successful in changing health and safety performance. A case study is presented illustrating the introduction of risk assessment into the Ingwe Coal Corporation, one of South Africa?s largest mining houses, to indicate how the system was developed and how it is being used.

Jan 1, 1998

By L. Munsamy

The bulk of primary mining at the Anglo Coal's Bank Colliery was carried out by drill and blast method, in a bord and pillar layout exploiting the No. 2 Seam. Secondary extraction, top/bottom coaling, also took place using both the drill and blast (D&B) method and continuous miners (CM). Extensive mining in this seam resulted in the risk of sterilising the No. 4 Seam reserves. Therefore, multiseam design guidelines established by Salamon and Oravecz (8) were re-evaluated in light of the low safety factors and the low pillar width to mining height ratios of pillars in the No. 2 Seam. Two and three dimensional (2D & 3D) numerical modelling was carried out to quantify and verify the parameters that influence the multiseam mining. The modelling was conducted primarily in two dimensions (plane strain), with 3D models to confirm the validity of the 2D results. A panel risk assessment flow chart was developed to assess the panels with respect to pillar failure and multiseam mining. This flow chart was extended into the evaluation of risk of surface subsidence using the current rock engineering knowledge. The aim of this risk assessment tool is to assess all underground workings at Anglo Coal collieries simply and rapidly. The identification of high-risk areas would warrant further investigation and possible backfilling to reduce the risk of pillar failures ensuring that reserves in the No. 4 and 5 Seams above are intact.

Jan 1, 2004

By L W. Palmer

"Evaluating the geological risk associated with ore deposits is becoming common practice in the mining industry. While geostatistical simulation is a useful tool for evaluating this risk, the effect of applying different types of simulation is less understood. For simulation of categorical variables like rock types, available methods perform simulation in fundamentally different ways. In this study, the geological risk relevant for informed mine planning is studied with two categorical simulation methods, PluriGaussian Simulation (PGS) and Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). Risk is expressed as a probability of repeated occurrence of lithological units in the same location across simulations. Significant differences are observed between the methods in terms of spatial distribution of risk. To identify the most plausible risk model, the input parameters at every step of both techniques are scrutinised. PGS and SIS inputs are classified as four parameters that are: fundamental to implementation of the methodfixed to enable comparison of PGS and SISdetermined by user interpretation, hence variablenormally optimised during application of PGS and SIS. The effect of parameter selection from categories 1 and 4 on the risk model is investigated using drill core data from a leucogranite deposit. A corresponding block model is created for assigning outputs from PGS and SIS. Risk models produced by either method are illustrated in a cut-out from the block model to enable bench-by-bench comparison. For PGS, risk associated with relatively rare lithologies is relatively sensitive to variation of parameters. Independent of the abundance of lithology, a location-dependent effect of variogram and vertical proportion curve parameter selection is observed, with risk increasing towards the deposit edge. Although SIS requires fewer inputs, single lithologies must be modelled in turn. Using small numbers of samples in the search neighbourhood, all risk models differ substantially. For larger numbers of samples, the risk models are similar. Overall it appears that the risk model produced using SIS is less sensitive to changes than PGS but further work is required to confirm this.CITATION:Palmer, L W and Glass, H J, 2014. Risk associated with rock type prediction using simulation techniques, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 217–228 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Aug 18, 2014

By J M. Dwyer, S Williamson

Acceptable post-closure performance of decommissioned mining operations is a critical factor in persuading todayÆs environmentally conscious public that the mining industry will not continue to burden future generations with the legacy of environmental tragedies. Post-closure impacts must be identified and managed through robust engineering design if the post-closure environment is to be environmentally sustainable. To manage potential post-closure risks (environmental, health, safety, social and economic) within acceptable limits, WMC incorporates a risk-based approach to closure planning and engineering design. WMCÆs risk-based closure engineering design process provides a simple methodology for developing robust closure plans û the process æengineers outÆ unacceptable risks and æengineers inÆ a sustainable post-closure environment. Benefits of the risk-based process include stakeholder endorsed closure criteria for an agreed post-closure land-use, focusing of resources on major risks, and a realistic and accurate estimate of the required closure provision. The outcome is an increased likelihood of satisfying the three pillar goals of sustainable development û a financially sound solution that poses a low risk to the environment and future generations.

Jan 1, 2003

By J L. Merritt

Effective minesite water management requires that this issue be treated as a risk management exercise. The management process is generally far from simple and by necessity must involve a range of personnel covering a siteÆs commercial, operational and environmental interests and responsibilities. The challenge to be collectively faced by these stakeholders is to strike the correct balance between risk and cost. On the other hand, the challenge to be faced by technical services support personnel is to provide stakeholders with information in a format that they can use with confidence. This paper presents the application of continuous operational simulation (OPSIM) modelling techniques to establish appropriate risk profiles for minesite operations. It is necessary that the format of these risk profiles be generic and equally applicable for defining the risk of occurrence for a relatively comprehensive range of activities û eg from of a non-compliant discharge, to the risk of failure to meet production targets. What is more, the profiles need to be quantitatively based and capable of reflecting change in system response to varied operational or management strategies. The techniques presented in this paper are based around a key assumption that long-term records of the climate contain within them sets of sequences that are representative of what can be expected in the future û that is, the droughts, floods, cyclones, good years and bad, long or short, and everything in between. Therefore, if these historical records are run through an OPSIM model for a particular site, then the simulated operational characteristics can be taken as being representative of what can be expected in the future, in the long-term. This lends itself to statistical analysis and translation into the required risk based format. Water Solutions Pty Ltd have been working with Capricorn Coal Management to develop a relatively comprehensive OPSIM model of their operations at German Creek Mine, Central Queensland. Outcomes from the modelling have been used in recent times to provide mine management with risk-based guidelines for both securing and containing mine water inventories. One of the more interesting tasks has been to establish risk based inventory levels that, if reached, would trigger the immediate implementation of a contract for the desalination and re-use of mine water, at predefined rates. Also, lead-time warning of the occurrence of a possible trigger is of importance to operational and commercial planning. To service this requirement the OPSIM model is regularly used to produce lead-time estimates to defined levels of confidence. Case studies of these, and other, applications of the OPSIM model at German Creek Mine are presented in this paper and serve to demonstrate an effective methodology for practical risked based water management.

Jan 1, 2003

By David J. Hatem, K. Bhattarai

The increasing popularity of alternative methods in delivery of underground infrastructure projects has given rise to innovative and collaborative contracting strategies to allocate and manage the unique risks associated with the work. This paper presents approaches and recent examples of how risk has been dealt with using various alternative delivery methods, including Progressive Design Build (PDB) and Construction Manager/General Contractor (CM/GC). Based on the experience gained from these examples, recommendations for an innovative and collaborative risk baselining approach using contingency sharing are presented that should advance the overall goals of equitable risk sharing and compensation.

Jun 13, 2023

By K. Komnitsas

Activities in the mixed sulphides industry, such as mining and beneficiation, cause adverse impacts to the environment due to excavation, treatment and disposal of low-grade ores and tailings containing residual sulphide minerals. The greatest impact is caused by the oxidation of sulphide phases contained in the tailings and waste rock and the subsequent production of leachates characterized by low pH and high concentration of heavy and toxic elements and sulphates, called acid mine drainage, that contaminates soils, surface- and groundwater. Therefore, rehabilitation of these sites is required in order to render these pollution sources inactive and minimize environmental impacts. The calculation of risk, based on acid mine drainage probability and magnitude of consequences at the disposal sites offers engineers, environmental scientists and authorities a valuable tool for the selection and application of the best remediation technology. Several parameters, such as the chemical and mineralogical properties of the wastes, the most probable pathways the contaminants follow, the potential receptors and the exposure scenarios have to be taken into account. Therefore, risk is the most critical parameter in decision-making regarding management of mining wastes and rehabilitation of disposal sites.

Jan 1, 2002

By Murray Pezim

In the good old days of the folklore of the mining industry, grizzled prospectors obtained a few loose dollars from friends and neighbours then wandered off to eventually return with the great discovery which became the core of the new corporate empires. Alternatively, merchant banking barons obtained exclusive rights to just about anything of future value over hugh nation-size territories. Some of this probably still goes on, likely with about the same ineffectiveness and waste of effort and money as in the past. CURRENT CONCERNS IN MINING In today's difficult climate in the mining industry, for that matter in all industry, effectiveness is the vital consideration. Cost effectiveness -- more bang for the buck -- is especially important in such an area of high risk as mineral exploration. And there are other factors to consider. Since minerals are depleting resources, the mining inddustry is constantly confronted with the reality that those resources extracted today must be immediately replaced if a resource enterprise is to continue. And if growth is to be achieved, even more resources must be found to support future expansion. The current and immediately foreseeable climate internationally for the mining industry creates a special need and urgency for aggressive and successful exploration, certainly in Canada, if not also in the United States. Depressed world markets and prices have turned yesterday's economic reserves into today's waste, hopefully to be converted into economic ore again in some distant time. One way of replenishing reserves and maintaining a viable mining industry is to find and develop mines which are economic under short-term depressed price and market conditions. This probably means higher grades. A new copper discovery with the right combination of characteristics to be an attractive investment even at today's pices for copper would still merit development into production. Exploration is the only way to find such mines for the difficult short-term conditions. Another important consideration is that normally many years stretch from the first thought of conducting exploration to production -- in those rare instances where an economic discovery is made. If discoveries are not made today, then there will not be any projects to develop when business conditions are more attrative. This industry and the vast number of skilled professionals who are part of mining, are faced with two key problems that underlie the need for a junior exploration segment. One consideration is how to maintain exploration during those years, indeed eras, of recession and depression. We are in such a time now. Throughout the world, major companies have sharply cut back, if not eliminated completely, exploration expenditures other than what is vitally necessary and easily and inexpensively done at the known and producing deposits. And related to that consideration, even more important today than during happier times, is how to finance such necessary ongoing exploration if major companies and governments back away because of financial stringency. CANADIAN SUCCESS In Canada, such problems are being tackled with a success which is capturing worldwide attention. The ability of mineral explorers to obtain willing, eager, high-risk capital is achieving even more outstanding results than in the past. These results are reflected in the widespread continuing exploration ativity in Canada which even spreads into the United States, with some outstanding discovery successes. The most notable exploration success from junior mining activity is the discovery of the Hemlo gold camp in northwestern Ontario, a source of gold which promises to rank with the South

Jan 1, 1985

By Greg Wieland

Deep sewer tunnels are required to meet future growth demands of the City of Austin?s down-town redevelopment. The tunnel is 18,000 ft long and varies in finished diameter from 54 inches to 96 inches. The tunnel crosses under Austin?s Town Lake three times and there are four main work shaft sites. Geology, groundwater, foundations, downtown redevelopment, and an active, healthy community put significant constraints on the design. This paper discusses a major underground project for downtown Austin and discusses the risk considerations and the opportunities the design team took toward optimizing the project design for the construction phase.

Jan 1, 2008

By Juan Pablo Vielma

In this work we study how to incorporate risk control to the generation of ultimate pits when orebodies are modeled through a finite number of conditional simulations. To control risk we consider a chance constraint on the value of the ultimate pit. We incorporate this measure into the generation of ultimate pits by solving a stochastic programming version of the ultimate pit problem. We compare this stochastic programming problem to previous approaches such as generating the ultimate pit for each simulation and the hybrid pit approach introduced by Whittle and Bozorgebrahimi. We also study the effect of using different number of simulations in the generation and evaluation of ultimate pits.

Oct 1, 2009

By John Meuth, Brandon Fryman, P. E. Hoffman, Joshua Ph. D., P. E. Calnan, Josh Ph. D.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be specifically tailored for use by the commercial explosives industry to calculate risk to employees and the public from commercial explosives facilities and operations. This methodology has several advantages over the American Table of Distances (ATD) which is solely a Quantity Distance (Q/D) analysis. While the ATD has remained essentially the same for 100 years, the safety of commercial explosives in storage has increased immensely. However, the concepts behind QRA calculations are not as intuitive and even at the end of the calculations the values of risk must be compared to something. A few regimes for assessing an acceptable level of risk are discussed in this paper. Risk levels for various United States Federal entities and international agencies are highlighted and suggestions for acceptable risk criteria for individuals and groups are provided. Referencing risk levels from normal daily activities is also done in this paper to make relative the accepted risk criteria. This paper presents some relevant individual risks for everyday activities and some scenarios for group risk for comparison. Individual risk is a straightforward concept however group risk is more complicated. This paper aims to clarify these concepts and provide means to communicate them to the public.

Jan 1, 2019

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

The exploration and mining risks are investigated and compared to the risks of smelting, secondary processing and other normal industrial activities. This study concentrates on the risk before, or at the investment decision. Internal and external risks are distinguished. Internal risks are the risks inherent in every engineering design and common to all projects. The main external risks are the financial risk, changes in prices, location problems and geological factors. Financial risks concern every capital-intensive and export-oriented project and cannot be considered as typical mining risks. Changes in prices, i.e. the market risk, concern every industry using raw materials, but the market risk is especially accentuated in the mining industry. Problems of location and infrastructure are normally more significant in mining than in other projects, and geological risks are unique to mining. All these risks associated with mining projects combine to form a risk at least twice as high as that for other normal industrial activities. Within the range of profitability of mines, which on average is the same as in the manufacturing industry, only a few highly profitable mines exist. These few mines are the sole reward for the high risks taken.

Jan 1, 1986

By T C. Hunter

There are unique risk factors involved in the development of an Australian uranium project especially by a æjuniorÆ. These encompass a range of political, technical, environmental, regulatory, timing, native title, investor relations and financial issues. The Honeymoon Uranium Project in South Australia is being developed by Southern Cross Resources. The history and experience from a risk viewpoint is detailed and discussed. Particular emphasis is placed upon the practical experience and obstacles overcome to meet project milestones.

Jan 1, 2003