Search Documents

By Murray Pezim

In the good old days of the folklore of the mining industry, grizzled prospectors obtained a few loose dollars from friends and neighbours then wandered off to eventually return with the great discovery which became the core of the new corporate empires. Alternatively, merchant banking barons obtained exclusive rights to just about anything of future value over hugh nation-size territories. Some of this probably still goes on, likely with about the same ineffectiveness and waste of effort and money as in the past. CURRENT CONCERNS IN MINING In today's difficult climate in the mining industry, for that matter in all industry, effectiveness is the vital consideration. Cost effectiveness -- more bang for the buck -- is especially important in such an area of high risk as mineral exploration. And there are other factors to consider. Since minerals are depleting resources, the mining inddustry is constantly confronted with the reality that those resources extracted today must be immediately replaced if a resource enterprise is to continue. And if growth is to be achieved, even more resources must be found to support future expansion. The current and immediately foreseeable climate internationally for the mining industry creates a special need and urgency for aggressive and successful exploration, certainly in Canada, if not also in the United States. Depressed world markets and prices have turned yesterday's economic reserves into today's waste, hopefully to be converted into economic ore again in some distant time. One way of replenishing reserves and maintaining a viable mining industry is to find and develop mines which are economic under short-term depressed price and market conditions. This probably means higher grades. A new copper discovery with the right combination of characteristics to be an attractive investment even at today's pices for copper would still merit development into production. Exploration is the only way to find such mines for the difficult short-term conditions. Another important consideration is that normally many years stretch from the first thought of conducting exploration to production -- in those rare instances where an economic discovery is made. If discoveries are not made today, then there will not be any projects to develop when business conditions are more attrative. This industry and the vast number of skilled professionals who are part of mining, are faced with two key problems that underlie the need for a junior exploration segment. One consideration is how to maintain exploration during those years, indeed eras, of recession and depression. We are in such a time now. Throughout the world, major companies have sharply cut back, if not eliminated completely, exploration expenditures other than what is vitally necessary and easily and inexpensively done at the known and producing deposits. And related to that consideration, even more important today than during happier times, is how to finance such necessary ongoing exploration if major companies and governments back away because of financial stringency. CANADIAN SUCCESS In Canada, such problems are being tackled with a success which is capturing worldwide attention. The ability of mineral explorers to obtain willing, eager, high-risk capital is achieving even more outstanding results than in the past. These results are reflected in the widespread continuing exploration ativity in Canada which even spreads into the United States, with some outstanding discovery successes. The most notable exploration success from junior mining activity is the discovery of the Hemlo gold camp in northwestern Ontario, a source of gold which promises to rank with the South

Jan 1, 1985

By Greg Wieland

Deep sewer tunnels are required to meet future growth demands of the City of Austin?s down-town redevelopment. The tunnel is 18,000 ft long and varies in finished diameter from 54 inches to 96 inches. The tunnel crosses under Austin?s Town Lake three times and there are four main work shaft sites. Geology, groundwater, foundations, downtown redevelopment, and an active, healthy community put significant constraints on the design. This paper discusses a major underground project for downtown Austin and discusses the risk considerations and the opportunities the design team took toward optimizing the project design for the construction phase.

Jan 1, 2008

By Juan Pablo Vielma

In this work we study how to incorporate risk control to the generation of ultimate pits when orebodies are modeled through a finite number of conditional simulations. To control risk we consider a chance constraint on the value of the ultimate pit. We incorporate this measure into the generation of ultimate pits by solving a stochastic programming version of the ultimate pit problem. We compare this stochastic programming problem to previous approaches such as generating the ultimate pit for each simulation and the hybrid pit approach introduced by Whittle and Bozorgebrahimi. We also study the effect of using different number of simulations in the generation and evaluation of ultimate pits.

Oct 1, 2009

By John Meuth, Brandon Fryman, P. E. Hoffman, Joshua Ph. D., P. E. Calnan, Josh Ph. D.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be specifically tailored for use by the commercial explosives industry to calculate risk to employees and the public from commercial explosives facilities and operations. This methodology has several advantages over the American Table of Distances (ATD) which is solely a Quantity Distance (Q/D) analysis. While the ATD has remained essentially the same for 100 years, the safety of commercial explosives in storage has increased immensely. However, the concepts behind QRA calculations are not as intuitive and even at the end of the calculations the values of risk must be compared to something. A few regimes for assessing an acceptable level of risk are discussed in this paper. Risk levels for various United States Federal entities and international agencies are highlighted and suggestions for acceptable risk criteria for individuals and groups are provided. Referencing risk levels from normal daily activities is also done in this paper to make relative the accepted risk criteria. This paper presents some relevant individual risks for everyday activities and some scenarios for group risk for comparison. Individual risk is a straightforward concept however group risk is more complicated. This paper aims to clarify these concepts and provide means to communicate them to the public.

Jan 1, 2019

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

The exploration and mining risks are investigated and compared to the risks of smelting, secondary processing and other normal industrial activities. This study concentrates on the risk before, or at the investment decision. Internal and external risks are distinguished. Internal risks are the risks inherent in every engineering design and common to all projects. The main external risks are the financial risk, changes in prices, location problems and geological factors. Financial risks concern every capital-intensive and export-oriented project and cannot be considered as typical mining risks. Changes in prices, i.e. the market risk, concern every industry using raw materials, but the market risk is especially accentuated in the mining industry. Problems of location and infrastructure are normally more significant in mining than in other projects, and geological risks are unique to mining. All these risks associated with mining projects combine to form a risk at least twice as high as that for other normal industrial activities. Within the range of profitability of mines, which on average is the same as in the manufacturing industry, only a few highly profitable mines exist. These few mines are the sole reward for the high risks taken.

Jan 1, 1986

By T C. Hunter

There are unique risk factors involved in the development of an Australian uranium project especially by a æjuniorÆ. These encompass a range of political, technical, environmental, regulatory, timing, native title, investor relations and financial issues. The Honeymoon Uranium Project in South Australia is being developed by Southern Cross Resources. The history and experience from a risk viewpoint is detailed and discussed. Particular emphasis is placed upon the practical experience and obstacles overcome to meet project milestones.

Jan 1, 2003

By Limao Zhang

This paper presents a BIM-based Risk Identification Expert System (B-RIES) for metro construction, composed of three main built-in subsystems: BIM extraction, knowledge base management, and risk identification subsystems. The engineering parameter information related to risk factors is extracted from the BIM of a specific project where the IFC standard plays a bridge role between the BIM data and metro construction safety risks. An integrated knowledge base, consisting of fact base, rule base and case base, is established to systematize the fragmented explicit and tacit knowledge. A hybrid inference approach, with case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning included, is developed to improve the flexibility and comprehensiveness of the system reasoning capacity. During the safety risk identification process, B-RIES is able to improve the inefficiencies in engineering information extraction, reduce the dependence on domain experts, and facilitate knowledge sharing and communication among dispersed clients and domain experts. A typical safety hazard identification in the Mingdu station, located in the Wuhan Metro Line Two, is presented in a case study. The results demonstrate the feasibility of B-RIES, and its application potential. B-RIES can be used as a decision support tool to provide guidelines for safety management in metro construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment.

Aug 1, 2013

By H. Simonsen

Risk assessment consists of a search for the answers to: ?What can happen? ?How likely it is that it can happen? ?What are the consequences if it does happen? Perhaps the most important aim of risk analysis is to predict the likelihood that a planned profit will be achieved over a given period of time. A typical risk model employed for this purpose includes a stochastic connection between the dependent variable of an expression that describes a process and independent variables represented as random quantities. The output will be a probabilistic distribution. The uncertainties in a planned mining operation include: ?Commodity market characteristics, particularly price ?Ore reserves and mineralogical composition ?Mining method ?Process performance ?Capital and operating costs ?Schedule duration ?Economic environment effects. The processes employed in the probabilistic estimation of a project?s outcome include both Monte Carlo simulations and simulations where variable correlation is considered important. The risk model, once developed and tested, provides a framework for a rational approach to risk analysis and the testing of alternatives.

Jan 1, 1999

Paper presented at the UK minerals industry conference and published in: Minerals extraction towards the millennium. UK minerals industry conference, 3-5 April 1995, University of Leeds. London: Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, 1995. The various types of risks that arise in minerals industry projects are usually financial, technical, or environmental, and the key to valid risk analysis is complete integration of all risks, both within and between categories. Geographical information systems (GIS) and geostatistical simulation methods can provide a means of integrating data and conducting realistic risk analyses. Risk can be quantified but there are limitations to numerical approaches to risk assessment. Realistic quantification requires adequate models of the processes that give rise to risk. Risk perception must also be taken into account when conducting risk assessment and reporting the results, especially in public forums. The modelling and visualisation capabilities of a combined GIS/simulation system can provide the means of dealing with perception in risk analysis

Jun 19, 1905

By A. M. Clegg

In general, overall experience has shown that the approach to the appointment of a project manager is given much attention, but little specific attention is given first to the risk associated with the project conceptual design and its overall executability within either the new legislative framework or the sustainability of the outcome. The risk in project executability and sustainability within the ?new age? legislative framework of the Mining Charter, etc, is itself however, of far greater importance. The degree of importance being defined by the intended projects impact on the business going forward. This is particularly the case where the intention of the implementation is effectively to turn around or even enhance a loss-making strategic investment like a mine or process plant operation in an ?old-order rights? or Brownfield?s operation. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of a ?pre-project project? (PPP) to mitigate the risk in the ?new age?, with specific reference to operational due diligence (ODD) and project conceptual design.

Jan 1, 2005

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open-pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau while the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-mak-ing range is significantly reduced and the process for select-ing the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable and defensible. The technique outlined in this paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Jun 1, 2024

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau whilst the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-making range is significantly reduced, and the process for selecting the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable, and defensible. This paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Feb 21, 2024

By W. Abdellah

The purpose of this paper is to establish a qualitative method to estimate the risk level (e.g. rating and ranking) resulting from mining activity. Risk is the product of two factors: probability of failure and cost of consequences. A resultant assessment scale matrix is then used to assign a risk index value which is directly proportional to the potential for excavation instability. A case study, the No. 1 Shear East orebody at Vale?s Garson Mine in Sudbury, Ontario will be examined. A three-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference model (FLAC 3D) is presented for a mine development intersection situated 1.5 km below ground surface. The developed assessment scale matrix is used to estimate risk index for intersection (2981) located on 5000 level. The results are presented and categorized with respect to risk-index value, probability of instability, cost of consequence, and mining stage.

Jan 1, 2014

By Tsuyoshi Adachi

Photovoltaic (PV) system is especially taken notice as one of important renewable energy resources, because PV has potential to provide a certain amount of energy supply as well as without greenhouse gases emission. Considering recent rapid increasing demand for PV system, more expansion of PV system is expected in the future. However, some precious metals and minor metals such as silver, indium and others are used as component materials of solar cell in PV system. Even if energy supply would become renewable, strict limitation of these metals still remain because amount of natural resources and recycling of metals has restrictions intrinsically. The aim of this study is to reveal the possibility of materials supply restrictions for Photovoltaic system quantitatively and to propose several measurements to assess supply risks for materials. Especially, silver supply potential which is used as wire line in PV system as well as PV demand forecast to estimate material use in the future are focused on. We divide underlying supply risk into 5 measurements and analyze them by time series, i.e. price volatility, resource potential, recycling ratio, production type and supply concentration are investigated. Comparing these factors of silver with other metals, the potential of silver supply for PV is presented. In addition to it, we propose another method to quantify country risk applied an insurance pricing model in finance pricing theory and combine it with the supply concentration measurement. As a result, supply risk of silver will increase gradually in the near future because of its resource constraints and supply-demand balances although silver market is sufficiency competitive one. From the country risk analysis, Peru is not only a significant supply country but also has the highest country risk. Some higher risk countries will increase the level of supply risk even if the concentration ratio of supply indicates moderate level.

Aug 1, 2013

By R. L. Grayson, R. C. Althouse, L. A. Layne, M. J. Klishis

Introduction The researchers combine a detailed microanalysis of accident data and roof bolting field observations to develop new and meaningful risk indices for the roof bolter job classification. These indices incorporate information that has not been used in traditional measures of risk. The significant parameters that these new indices incorporate are the total number of accidents occurring within a particular work activity, the amount of time a miner usually spends performing the work activities in which the accidents occurred, and the average severity of the injuries incurred in the accidents. Being specific for a particular job, they aid comparisons among work tasks performed in the bolting cycle. The indices' specificity provide anew basis for reexamination of training and operational development of miners for specific jobs. Microanalysis The roof bolting microanalysis was performed by examining the empirical data and written summaries for all bolting accidents reported in the West Virginia Safety Information System (WVSIS) for the years 1983-1987. The WVSIS database contained more than 15,000 accident narratives. The microanalysis of bolting accidents covered 2083 reported personal injuries (RPIs). This large number of injuries, performed at an industry-wide level, provides a broad picture of the nature of roof bolting injuries. The analysis focuses on the activities associated with the cyclical routines of the roof bolting process. For this analysis, roof bolting tasks were categorized into work routines based on the sequence of work activities performed by roof bolters. Four work routines were identified within the overall bolting cycle. And these routines comprised 70% (1217) of all roof bolting accidents at the face. The routines include: face area preparation; tramming, positioning and setting the automated temporary roof support (ATRS); drilling holes; and installing bolts. The types of injuries most common within a routine and the average severity of those RPIs were also identified. Table 1 gives a breakdown of the percentage of accidents by the bolting routines. Another 19% of the roof bolting RPIs cannot be classified in a particular routine because of the vagueness of the narratives. However, it was clear that these accidents involved drilling holes or installing bolts. These results are consistent with previous research. It identified drilling and bolting, followed by tramming, as the most frequent sources of injuries (Helander, Krohn & Curtain, 1983). [Table 1-Accidents by bolting routines at the face Accidents Bolting routine Percent Number Face area preparation 18.2 222 Tram, position, ATRS 23.3 284 Drilling holes 34.2 416 Installing bolts 24.2 295 Total 1217] Roof bolter operators were involved in 82% (1706) of the 2083 accidents. The RPIs incurred by classified roof bolters occurred largely on working sections (95%) and at the face area on the working section (75%). Approximately 23% of the 1706 roof bolter RPIs occurred during tasks which were not part of the bolting cycle. These included belt utility work, providing supplies and section moves. Miners in other job classifications who were involved in roof bolting accidents accounted for the remaining 18% of the 2083 roof bolting RPIs. Among this group were section utility men and general laborers (41%), section machine operators (38%), and electricians and mechanics (11%). Another 9% were performing on-section supervisory functions. Face area preparation Face area preparation work led to a substantial number of injuries, although it accounted for the lowest number of injuries of the four routines. Several tasks were associated with the injuries incurred in this routine. Table 2 shows the percentage of injuries associated with face area preparation. [Table 2- Accidents occurring during face area preparation 26.6% Setting temporary and supplemental supports 24.8% Scaling roof and ribs 21.2% Installing ventilation devices 15.8% Handling supplies and materials 11.6% Miscellaneous tasks] The injuries commonly involved overexertion and 'struck by' falling coal and rock. Handling materials often led to overexertion injuries. Nearly 66% of the scaling-related injuries and about 33% of the injuries incurred during the setting of temporary supports involved 'strikes' by equipment, materials, top and rib. Tramming, positioning and setting the ATRS During tramming operations, workers were often struck by components of the machine and hit by loose roof and rib. Poor footing also led to slips, sometimes against the moving machinery. Table 3 gives a breakdown of accidents in this routine. Control levers were a significant problem in this routine.

Jan 1, 1993

By Willem Le Roux

The common law requires an employer to take reasonable steps for the safety of employees. In general, the duty of care means that the employer, acting personally or through its employees or agents, must take reasonable care for the safety of its employees (Van Deventer v Workmen?s Compensation Commissioner; 1962 (4) SA 28 T; Oosthuizen v Homegas (Pty) Ltd 1992 (3) SA 463 T).The duty of care includes the provision of safe premises, safe machinery and tools and a safe system of work. The obligation is not an absolute one, but is restricted by the concept of reasonableness. The common law duty may, in certain cases, include the assessment of hazards and risks. 2 International law Great emphasis has been placed in the Western world on the prevention of occupational diseases and injuries. Detailed statutes and regulations govern specific industries in many countries. See, e.g. the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health Regulations of the United Kingdom and various regulations applicable to the use of asbestos and lead, fire protection, mines and quarries, petroleum, etc. Risk management is an important part of managing health and safety. In the United Kingdom, the Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations, 1999, require every employer to make a ?suitable and sufficient assessment of the risks to health and safety of his employees to which they are exposed whilst they are at work?. The particularity of the assessment is determined by the risk in question.

Jan 1, 2011

Two examples of risk assessment and risk management in action are discussed. The first is in a management context in relation to Kingsgate Consolidated LtdÆs Chatree operation in Thailand. Kingsgate has conducted an over-riding risk management program to assess and manage risk across its complete business from the Sydney and Bangkok offices through to the Chatree Mine and the companyÆs exploration group. This example addresses how Kingsgate has applied risk management, particularly to the process operation, and the benefits that have been gained. The second is in an operational context in relation to Minara Resources LtdÆs Murrin Murrin operation in Western Australia. The subject is the methodology and outcomes of a risk assessment across the Murrin Murrin operation specifically to identify and assess risks with potential impacts from $1 M to $7 M. This section of the paper then shows how the outcomes of the risk assessment were integrated into MinaraÆs strategic plan to debottleneck the plant and increase nickel production.

Jan 1, 2004

By Sebastian Fischer, Rolf Katzenbach, Steffen Leppla

"The risk management in the case of liquefaction is one of the most serious and also difficult issues in geotechnical engineering because failure caused by liquefaction is always a sudden failure without ahead indication. For that reason ground improvement technologies for the prevention of liquefaction are necessary. The paper explains the responsible and effective risk management. Methods for the risk management and stabilizing the soil sustainably are described in detail.1. INTRODUCTIONDue to population growing more and more settlement area is needed, which is often including improper regions (e.g. mountain and coast regions) with raised risk of various kinds of disasters. But also in densely populated areas the risk of disasters like landslides can occur. One reason for the raising of risk in densely populated regions can be the opencast mining for raw material production. An essential element of the opencast mining is the loose deposition of the removed overburden, the so-called “overburden dump”. When an opencast mining is running out of the raw material, an opencast hollow remains in landscape. The slope areas of these hollows mostly consist of loose bedded material of the overburden dump. Due to the end of groundwater conservation these loose bedded slope areas are flooded. In consequence the slopes are in extreme danger of becoming liquefied. The result of a liquefaction in these slopes will unavoidably be a slope slide. Such a slope slide can extend up to several hundred meters into the landscape and can move several million cubic meters of material. An upsetting example for such a landslide is the slope failure in the German city of Nachterstedt on July, 18th 2009, which made necessitate remedial measures and also prevention works for the further utilisation of the region. The phenomena of liquefaction is not limited of slopes in series of opencast mining. Especially in regions with a highly appearance of earthquakes the phenomena of liquefaction is well known.2. RISK MANAGEMENTAn essential part for the stability assessment of slope systems is the investigation of sensitivity against liquefaction. In the case of given sensitivity against liquefaction there is no calculation method according to soil mechanics to determine the factor of safety against slope failure. Just for the case that sensitivity against liquefaction is not met, a comparison of the load (effect) E and the resistance R which is the traditional verification of stability against slope failure, can be calculated (Figure 1)."

Jan 1, 2015

"A long-term mine production schedule optimization based on stochastic integer programming is presented that manages the risk due to geological variability and uncertainty while jointly considering mine profitability, truck fleet requirements and waste management. The evolution of the pit is controlled so that space within the mined-out pit is continuously provided to allow for tailings and waste rock to be replaced, thus minimizing the project’s environmental footprint. The method is applied at a taconite iron ore deposit and has a project net present value that is 16.9 percent higher than that of a conventional schedule and has a higher chance of meeting production forecasts. The stochastic schedule reduces equipment requirements by delaying waste mining and by mining selectively in order to meet plant ore feed requirements without stockpiling material, resulting in 23.7 and 26.2 percent lower mining capital and operating costs, respectively. IntroductionThe LabMag iron ore deposit is part of the Millennium Iron Range, a 210-km (130-mile) belt of taconite in northern Quebec and Labrador, Canada. LabMag has significant economic potential. It contains more than 3.3 Gt (3.6 billion st) of proven reserves at an average total iron content of 29.8 percent and is very low in impurities. However, on a project basis of 23 Mt/a (25 million stpy) of product, the required capital expenditure is estimated at more than $5 billion (SNC-Lavalin, 2014), which necessitates careful evaluation of all sources of risk. Resource estimation is one of the main sources of risk in a mining project as knowledge of the orebody is primarily based on drilling, which is often sparse because it is expensive. If the expected ore tonnages and qualities are not obtained when mining, the project cash flows are directly affected. The expected quantities and qualities of ore and waste are defined by the mine production schedule, which specifies the sequence of extraction and is dependent on the resource estimation. The goal of mine production scheduling is thus to maximize the expected profit, while also meeting all production targets and constraints, by creating an extraction schedule that is robust in the face of geological risk and has the highest chance possible of actually being realized."

Jan 10, 2017