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By R. Heuberger

South Africa?s Mining Industry operates in an uncertain world. The industry is buffeted by problems regarding retrenchments, unemployment, low productivity, rising costs, volatile exchange rates, commodity prices and government regulations. With these uncertainties facing the decision makers, what does applied technology offer the industry?s management? Modelling languages with risk analysis have been available for decades, but in the past their use has been very expensive, requiring large mainframe computers and lots of computer time. Today, PCs and laptops have incredible power, which makes interactive risk analysis affordable and viable for all enterprises, whether small or large. ?What is risk analysis? ?What is Monte Carlo simulation? ?What kinds of computer models need to be created to use risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation effectively? This paper addresses these questions and illustrates, with a practical example in the mining industry, how risk analysis techniques can be used to support decisions in the climate of uncertainty.

Jan 1, 2005

By L. H. Pye

For large mining sites in the west, the traditional method for performing an ecological risk assessment (ERA) provides little useful information for risk managers faced with selecting and designing sound remedial options. Current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk assessment guidance largely supports quantitative risk characterization of individual species as surrogates for population and ecosystem-level effects. Developing a work plan for investigating and remediating ecosystem-level changes potentially caused by large-scale historic mining/smelting contaminant release requires a decision process that incorporates a more holistic ecosystem management approach. Some of the most wasteful efforts associated with mine site ecological risk assessments arise when the risk analysis and data collection programs are not specifically linked up-front to the risk manager's decision needs. The following paper discusses the importance of employing a decision-based, ecosystem management framework when conducting ecological risk assessments at large mining sites. A case study of an ecological risk assessment currently being performed at a large New Mexico copper mine site is presented.

Jan 1, 1999

By M. K. G. Whateley, W. Hatton

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 20pp., 31 refs. Estimates of coal tonnage on UK open cast mining sites often vary from the recoverable tonnage. This is because the estimates depend on the geological variability of the coal measures. Geological parameters, such as thickness, quality and disturbance of the seam, have a direct control upon this variance. Risk analysis techniques have been applied using commercially available software to combine each parameter's variability into a cumulative variance, resulting in a tonnage distribution. Sensitivity modelling has also been used to identify the geological parameters which have the largest influence on the variance of the simulated tonnage distribution. An understanding of the relationship between the tonnage and geological variability has helped to focus exploration more efficiently. A cost to risk relationship can now be monitored, helping management to avoid negative consequences on site

Aug 1, 1995

By Richard Wilson

In the early 1970s, it became a concern that exposure to the mineral fibers associated taconite ore processed in Silver Bay, Minnesota would cause asbestos-related disease including gastrointestinal cancer. At that time data gaps existed which have now been significantly reduced by further research. To further our understanding of the types of airborne fibers in Silver Bay we undertook a geological survey of their source the Peter Mitchell Pit, and found that there are no primary asbestos minerals at a detectable level. However we identified two non-asbestos types of fibrous minerals in very limited geological locales. Air sampling useful for risk assessment was done to determine the type, concentrations and size distribution of the population of airborne fibers around Silver Bay. Approximately 80% of the airborne fibers have elemental compositions consistent with cummingtonite-grunerite and the remaining 20% have elemental compositions in the tremolite-actinolite series. The mean airborne concentration of both fiber types is less than 0.00014 fibers per milliliter that is within the background level reported by the World Health Organization. We calculate the risk of asbestos-related mesothelioma and lung cancer using a variety of different pessimistic assumptions. (i) that all the non-asbestos fibers are as potent as asbestos fibers used in the EPA-IRIS listing for asbestos; with a calculated risk of asbestos-related cancer for environmental exposure at Silver Bay of 1 excess cancer in 28,500 lifetimes (or 35 excess cancers per 1,000,000 lifetimes) and secondly that taconite associated fibers are as potent as chrysotile the least potent form of asbestos. The calculated risk is less than 0.77 excess cancer case in 1,000,000 lifetimes. Finally, we briefly review the epidemiology studies of grunerite asbestos (amosite) focusing on the exposure conditions associated with increased risk of human mesothelioma. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Risk; Fibers; Particles; Taconite; Asbestos; Exposures

Jan 1, 2007

By Peter Fischer, Heinz-Jiirgen Kateloe, Anton Sroka, Axel Preusse

"Since mining in Germany has a long history, there are still many locations where the surface fracture problem has to be solved. Shallow mine workings from an earlier era can affect the surface in a discontinuous way. In many cases, due to light overburden load, those mine rooms did not collapse and a downfall can suddenly happen for many reasons, e.g., in connection with a changed load entry into the subsurface or by additional influence of water. This results in ground movements, which in extreme cases, appear as surface fractures.Depending on the use of the surface, ground movements caused in such a way constitute an endangerment by law. Particularly, within the southern Ruhr district, surface fracture and subsidence endangered ranges are determined on the basis of an empirical method that resulted from a systematic evaluation of surface fractures and rock disclosures. This method indicates maximum ranges within which impacts from abandoned shallow mine workings must be assumed.With a special emphasis on a risk management approach, RWTH Aachen University adapted the model of stochastic media to the conditions of abandoned shallow mining to compute and illustrate potential ground movements due to the collapse of shallow mine workings. Further investigations were concerned with the analysis of characteristic parameters which can serve for the assessment of the surface fracture probability in a comparative view of different cases. In recent years, more than 50 surface fractures in the southern Ruhr district were analyzed in order to develop a risk assessment of surface fracture endangered ranges over shallow mine workings. The results that have been obtained so far are described in this paper.INTRODUCTIONAbandoned underground mine workings of shallow depth can pose a threat to the surface. Due to small overburden rock loads, shallow excavations often remain intact for decades after the operations have ceased and may collapse abruptly (Braemer et al., 2005; Hollmann and Nuerenberg, 1972; Preusse et al., 2007). Several approaches for prognosis of surface fracture resulting from 97 subsurface collapse deal with this topic (Loebel and Sroka, 2001; Tajdus and Sroka, 2009)."

Jan 1, 2010

By R. K. Dunham, D. J. Reddish, X. L. Yao

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 10pp., 10 refs. The integrated approach combines a powerful ground movement prediction program with a knowledge-based expert system. ESDAS (Expert Structural Damage Assessment System) was developed to evaluate mining subsidence damage in the form of risk and in terms of the three vital contributing components (mining factors, site factors and structural factors). Using a certainty factor risk assessment technique, the system can be used to predict the likely damage to a particular structure subjected to mining subsidence. A previously developed powerful ground movement prediction program, SWIFT (Subsidence With Influence Function Techniques), has been combined with the expert system to allow the mining factor to be more accurately determined in a broader range of mining layout. Since SWIFT can be calibrated to any particular coal field using local subsidence data, it is believed that the integrated system could be used in any coal field worldwide for the assessment and control of mining subsidence damage risks

Dec 1, 1995

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

Paper presented at the UK minerals industry conference and published in: Minerals extraction towards the millennium. UK minerals industry conference, 3-5 April 1995, University of Leeds. London: Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, 1995. The various types of risks that arise in minerals industry projects are usually financial, technical, or environmental, and the key to valid risk analysis is complete integration of all risks, both within and between categories. Geographical information systems (GIS) and geostatistical simulation methods can provide a means of integrating data and conducting realistic risk analyses. Risk can be quantified but there are limitations to numerical approaches to risk assessment. Realistic quantification requires adequate models of the processes that give rise to risk. Risk perception must also be taken into account when conducting risk assessment and reporting the results, especially in public forums. The modelling and visualisation capabilities of a combined GIS/simulation system can provide the means of dealing with perception in risk analysis

Jun 19, 1905

By A. M. Clegg

In general, overall experience has shown that the approach to the appointment of a project manager is given much attention, but little specific attention is given first to the risk associated with the project conceptual design and its overall executability within either the new legislative framework or the sustainability of the outcome. The risk in project executability and sustainability within the ?new age? legislative framework of the Mining Charter, etc, is itself however, of far greater importance. The degree of importance being defined by the intended projects impact on the business going forward. This is particularly the case where the intention of the implementation is effectively to turn around or even enhance a loss-making strategic investment like a mine or process plant operation in an ?old-order rights? or Brownfield?s operation. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of a ?pre-project project? (PPP) to mitigate the risk in the ?new age?, with specific reference to operational due diligence (ODD) and project conceptual design.

Jan 1, 2005

By W. Abdellah

The purpose of this paper is to establish a qualitative method to estimate the risk level (e.g. rating and ranking) resulting from mining activity. Risk is the product of two factors: probability of failure and cost of consequences. A resultant assessment scale matrix is then used to assign a risk index value which is directly proportional to the potential for excavation instability. A case study, the No. 1 Shear East orebody at Vale?s Garson Mine in Sudbury, Ontario will be examined. A three-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference model (FLAC 3D) is presented for a mine development intersection situated 1.5 km below ground surface. The developed assessment scale matrix is used to estimate risk index for intersection (2981) located on 5000 level. The results are presented and categorized with respect to risk-index value, probability of instability, cost of consequence, and mining stage.

Jan 1, 2014

By Tsuyoshi Adachi

Photovoltaic (PV) system is especially taken notice as one of important renewable energy resources, because PV has potential to provide a certain amount of energy supply as well as without greenhouse gases emission. Considering recent rapid increasing demand for PV system, more expansion of PV system is expected in the future. However, some precious metals and minor metals such as silver, indium and others are used as component materials of solar cell in PV system. Even if energy supply would become renewable, strict limitation of these metals still remain because amount of natural resources and recycling of metals has restrictions intrinsically. The aim of this study is to reveal the possibility of materials supply restrictions for Photovoltaic system quantitatively and to propose several measurements to assess supply risks for materials. Especially, silver supply potential which is used as wire line in PV system as well as PV demand forecast to estimate material use in the future are focused on. We divide underlying supply risk into 5 measurements and analyze them by time series, i.e. price volatility, resource potential, recycling ratio, production type and supply concentration are investigated. Comparing these factors of silver with other metals, the potential of silver supply for PV is presented. In addition to it, we propose another method to quantify country risk applied an insurance pricing model in finance pricing theory and combine it with the supply concentration measurement. As a result, supply risk of silver will increase gradually in the near future because of its resource constraints and supply-demand balances although silver market is sufficiency competitive one. From the country risk analysis, Peru is not only a significant supply country but also has the highest country risk. Some higher risk countries will increase the level of supply risk even if the concentration ratio of supply indicates moderate level.

Aug 1, 2013

By Willem Le Roux

The common law requires an employer to take reasonable steps for the safety of employees. In general, the duty of care means that the employer, acting personally or through its employees or agents, must take reasonable care for the safety of its employees (Van Deventer v Workmen?s Compensation Commissioner; 1962 (4) SA 28 T; Oosthuizen v Homegas (Pty) Ltd 1992 (3) SA 463 T).The duty of care includes the provision of safe premises, safe machinery and tools and a safe system of work. The obligation is not an absolute one, but is restricted by the concept of reasonableness. The common law duty may, in certain cases, include the assessment of hazards and risks. 2 International law Great emphasis has been placed in the Western world on the prevention of occupational diseases and injuries. Detailed statutes and regulations govern specific industries in many countries. See, e.g. the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health Regulations of the United Kingdom and various regulations applicable to the use of asbestos and lead, fire protection, mines and quarries, petroleum, etc. Risk management is an important part of managing health and safety. In the United Kingdom, the Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations, 1999, require every employer to make a ?suitable and sufficient assessment of the risks to health and safety of his employees to which they are exposed whilst they are at work?. The particularity of the assessment is determined by the risk in question.

Jan 1, 2011

By T Atkinson, A Cobb, R AJIington

Risk management is concerned with the whole spectrum of financial, geological, engineering, legal, governmental, social and occasionally ethnic issues, concerned with mining projects. The inherent risks in mining operations are well publicised, but new issues and hazards arrive on the scene and lake precedence, but the older risks still remain, while insurance cover may not he ‘full cover’ in the future. It has long been recognised that quantitative approaches to risk analysis can play a major role, but although these methods are capable of considerable theoretical precision, the lack of sound risk input data and experienced personnel limits the usefulness of theoretical analysis. It can, however, greatly assist in comparing cases, in identifying areas of risk and help in the investment decision process. Its major contribution to a mining project is that it imposes an investigative discipline that also assists in improving the quantitative approach to risk analysis and hence risk management. Risk analysis and risk management also requires sound common sense and major inputs from experienced geologists, mining, mechanical, electrical and mineral processing engineers. The Engineering Council, in 1992, issued a ten point code of professional practice entitled ‘Engineers and Risk Issues’ (The Engineering Council. 1992), covering our professional responsibilities, the law, our conduct, the need for a systematic approach to risk issues, the use of professional judgement, communications, risk management, evaluation of risk, our professional development in this field and the encouragement of public awareness of risk issues. This is a specific area of training perhaps long neglected by our industry and academic institutions (Atkinson. 1983).

Jan 5, 1996

By Emily Rose

The concept of risk management is applied to multiple aspects of the mining lifecycle including safety, mine design, business plan—anything that affects getting the ore to the mill for production. However, risk management is not a topic that can readily be taught in universities. Many situations require knowledge gained from experience to know how this impacts current and future operations. Recent graduates, who must develop and apply decisions based on geotechnical monitoring, likely have not developed “operational experience” and may not be aware of options and typical applications. Thorough resources that explain different monitoring systems, and when and how to implement them, are available for geotechnical professionals. Accessibility to this information can often cause information overload, leaving one unsure of where to start, without knowing where to start. This paper is intended to serve as a high-level overview of development practices, levels of risk, and risk tolerance for entry-level geotechnical and mining professionals who do not come from a geotechnical background. Summarized detail on typical monitoring practices, types of instrumentation, and how to communicate what the data indicates to key stakeholders are provided.

Feb 22, 2026

By Iain G. Bruce

The need to improve supply reliability while improving our environmental record during the past half decade of low metal prices has required the mining industry to prioritise expenditures. Quantitative Risk Assessments using third party reviewers and specialist risk management teams have assisted in identifying hazards that can both disrupt supply and impact the receiving environment. Graphical displays using risk ellipses can simplify the presentation of the results in a Probability-Consequence (PC) graph. Development of risk acceptability envelopes using readily available financial data superimposed onto the same PC space assists management to prioritise their risks and focus on risk reduction measures. Development of this system and examples of the successful implementation of the system from several recent projects are described.

May 1, 2003

By A. Moergeli

The Swiss are building the world’s longest tunnel, the 57-Kilometer (35-mile) long Gotthard Base Tunnel. Lot 252, Tunnel Amsteg: Two Hard Rock Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM) crossed hydro-thermally decomposed granite. While the East TBM advanced slowly but steadily, the West one got stuck for five months and had to be recovered by special means and methods. Both TBMs have finished their more than 11-Kilometer (7 miles) long drives successfully. Lot 360, Tunnel Sedrun: For the first time in tunneling, roadway support machines are used through most challenging, squeezing geology. They constantly advance in full face mode for about one Tunnelmeter/24 hours.

Jan 1, 2007

By Ralph E. Burnham, Jeff Taylor, Jonson Montgomery, J. Kelly Ratliff, Rennie Montgomery, Martin Brashear

Top priorities for all blasting companies and individual blasters are risk management, safety of company personnel and the general public, regulatory compliance, and liability protection. On a daily basis, hundreds of shots are detonated by well-trained, skilled, and experienced blasters without incident. Unfortunately, accidents inevitably occur, which is why blasting is considered an “ultra hazardous” or “inherently dangerous” activity from a legal perspective. Despite countless regulations, recent advances in technology, improved training, ongoing research, and improved communication in the industry, mistakes and the resulting incidents continue to occur during blasting operations. These result in dangerous or deadly flyrock, site security lapses, increased complaints, blast damage claims, and lawsuits, which lead to increased insurance costs and other financial tolls for blasting companies. In life, lessons learned the hard way are rarely forgotten. The same is true in blasting operations. Blasting missteps and the resulting events are often the best catalysts for improving risk management and thereby reducing accidents, liability, and financial tolls. This paper provides a summary of two incidents, one safety and the other liability related, and the errors that resulted in a fatality in one case and a multi property lawsuit in the other. The two incidents provide examples that serve as a case study for lessons learned the hard way in blasting operations and offer guidance for the considerations that blasters and blasting companies should incorporate into daily operating procedures.

Jan 1, 2018

Risk management has taken on renewed vigor since the economic crisis of the late 2000s. The resources of governments, individuals, and corporations are being stretched to a point where only the most promising projects move forward. Risk management is a crucial part of the decision making process, yet it remains a broad term that includes disciplines from engineering to finance. A collaborative effort will be necessary to ensure that the most auspicious and appropriate projects are the ones moving forward. Risk management can be quantified to an extent by comparing the likelihood of an instance with the result of consequence of the instance occurring. In this manner it is possible to assign risk factors to instances and ultimately, begin to associate monetary value to the instance. Carbon sequestration is an emerging field that has a number of unique challenges. Risk management and mitigation must be an integral part of the overall picture. This begins with the planning and design phase, continues through implementation and production, site closure, and does not cease until termination of liability. The ability of carbon sequestration projects to successfully assess, mitigate, and recover from leaks will be a decisive characteristic of overall success. The costs of mitigation and failure will need to be analyzed on a test level, but will still need to be reliable enough to extrapolate to a commercial level operation. This paper will build a risk management profile based on case studies and field tests in Tennessee and Virginia. These tests are scheduled to commence in late 2013 and consist of small-scale injection tests in unconventional storage reservoirs with an emphasis on enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) recovery and enhanced gas recovery. The ultimate goal will be to provide a clear and concise direction to move carbon sequestration from the test phase to commercial scale. While it is necessary from a risk management perspective to analyze all risk points, the scope of this paper will focus on pre-injection risk assessment for carbon dioxide (CO2) leakage potential. Despite the differences between the two tests, CBM compared to shale among other differences, a framework for analysis and mitigation can be developed pertaining to leakage risk. The probability of each type of failure will be assessed and analyzed, and plans to mitigate or reduce these risks will be reviewed.

Aug 1, 2013

The nature of the specialty glass and ceramic business magnifies the dependency of the ultimate product on the unique properties of their raw materials used to make them. This dependency has implications in the management of risk in the supply process which requires a special procurement organization and program commitment to be successful. The Coming system of managing critical materials and factors in development of alternate new suppliers and products is discussed.

Jan 1, 1989

By Moreno Pescara, Luca Soldo, Piergiorgio Grasso

"Risk management in tunneling is more important today than it was a few years ago, considering increasing demands for safety and environmental and socio-economic sustainability, which are now required by citizens, owners, lenders, and insurers. Moreover, our current risk management philosophy should not only address risk avoidance and mitigation, but should also be used as a means of value creation, benefiting the overall project. Given the strategic implications of risk management, the authors intend to present, in this paper, a comprehensive overview of references and experiences from current practice—e.g., what is missing or weak, as well as possible or necessary developments that can have a key role in implementing effective risk management, particularly for a project’s design and construction phases. Therefore, as God has set some things in broad daylight; as he has given us some certain knowledge, though limited to a few things so, in the greatest part of our concernments, he has afforded us only the twilight, as I may so say, of probability (John Locke) PREFACE Many large-scale engineering and construction projects suffer millions of dollars in cost overruns, delays in design and construction, and operability troubles once finally completed (Edward W. Merrow, 2011). The undesired effects of these problems can become disastrous for large-scale megaprojects (those that typically cost US$1 billion or more), particularly considering that these are increasingly used as the preferred delivery model for infrastructure (Bent Flyvbjerg, 2014), often in public-private partnerships (PPPs). McKinsey G.I. (2015) has estimated that bridges and tunnels average 35% in cost overruns, and roads 20%. Some of the values published by Flyvbjerg (ibidem, 2014) for projects with relevant underground elements are the highest, with cost overruns from 60% to 300%. The analysis of 32 other case histories (from 1994 to 2010) given by Hartmut, R. (2011, IMIA Annual Conference, Amsterdam) indicates an average increase of costs around $55 million, with a 20-month average delay."

Jan 1, 2016